Climate Change Futures Health, Ecological and Economic Dimensions

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A Project of: The Center for Health and the Global Environment Harvard Medical School

Sponsored by: Swiss Re United Nations Development Programme IntroNew.qxd 9/27/06 12:40 PM Page 1

CLIMATE CHANGE FUTURES Health, Ecological and Economic Dimensions

A Project of: The Center for Health and the Global Environment Harvard Medical School

Sponsored by: Swiss Re United Nations Development Programme IntroNew.qxd 9/27/06 12:40 PM Page 2

Published by: The Center for Health and the Global Environment Harvard Medical School

With support from: Swiss Re United Nations Development Programme

Edited by: Paul R. Epstein and Evan Mills

Contributing editors: Kathleen Frith, Eugene Linden, Brian Thomas and Robert Weireter

Graphics: Emily Huhn and Rebecca Lincoln

Art Directors/Design: Evelyn Pandozi and Juan Pertuz

Contributing authors: Pamela Anderson, John Brownstein, Ulisses Confalonieri, Douglas Causey, Nathan Chan, Kristie L. Ebi, Jonathan H. Epstein, J. Scott Greene, Ray Hayes, Eileen Hofmann, Laurence S. Kalkstein, Tord Kjellstrom, Rebecca Lincoln, Anthony J. McMichael, Charles McNeill, David Mills, Avaleigh Milne, Alan D. Perrin, Geetha Ranmuthugala, Christine Rogers, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Colin L. Soskolne, Gary Tabor, Marta Vicarelli, X.B. Yang

Reviewers: Frank Ackerman, Adrienne Atwell, Tim Barnett, Virginia Burkett, Colin Butler, Eric Chivian, Richard Clapp, Stephen K. Dishart, Tee L. Guidotti, Elisabet Lindgren, James J. McCarthy, Ivo Menzinger, Richard Murray, David Pimentel, Jan von Overbeck, R.K. Pachauri, Claire L. Parkinson, Kilaparti Ramakrishna, Walter V. Reid, David Rind, Earl Saxon, Ellen-Mosley Thompson, Robert Unsworth, Christopher Walker

Additional contributors to the CCF project: Juan Almendares, Peter Bridgewater, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, Manuel Cesario, Michael B. Clark, Annie Coleman, James Congram, Paul Clements-Hunt, Peter Daszak, Amy Davidsen, Henry Diaz, Peter Duerig, David Easterling, Find Findsen, David Foster, Geoffrey Heal, Chris Hunter, Pascal Girot, H.N.B. Gopalan, Nicholas Graham, James Hansen, Pamela Heck, Daniel Hillel, Steve Howard, Ilyse Hogue, Anna Iglesias, Sonila Jacob, Maaike Jansen, Kurt Karl, William Karesh, Sivan Kartha, Thomas Kelly, Thomas Krafft, Gerry Lemcke, Mindy Lubber, Jeffrey A. McNeely, Sue Mainka, Leslie Malone, Pim Martens, Rachel Massey, Bettina Menne, Irving Mintzer, Teofilo Monteiro, Norman Myers, Peter Neoftis, Frank Nutter, Buruhani Nyenzi, Jennifer Orme-Zavaleta, Konrad Otto-Zimmermann, Martin Parry, Nikkita Patel, Jonathan Patz, Olga Pilifosova, Hugh Pitcher, Roberto Quiroz, Paul Raskin, William Rees, Phil Rossingol, Chris Roythorne, Jeffrey Sachs, Osman Sankoh, Henk van Schaik, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Roland Schulze, Joel Schwartz, Jeffrey Shaman, Richard Shanks, Gelila Terrefe, Rick Thomas, Margaret Thomsen, Ricardo Thompson, Michael Totten, Mathis Wackernagel, David Waltner-Toews, Cameron Wake, Richard Walsh, Martin Whittaker, Mary Wilson, George M. Woodwell, Ginny Worrest, Robert Worrest, Durwood Zaelke

Swiss Re Centre for Global Dialogue: The Centre for Global Dialogue is Swiss Re’s forum to deal with global risk issues and facilitates new insight into future risk markets. It supports stake- holder and networking activities for Swiss Re and their clients. Climate Change Futures was supported and realized with the help of the Business Development unit of Swiss Re’s Centre for Global Dialogue.

The full list of the Centre for Global Dialogue Executive Roundtable participants is appended.

Additional financial support for the Climate Change Futures project was provided by: The John Merck Fund

Disclaimer: This report was produced by the Center for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard Medical School and does not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsors.

November 2005 Second Printing: September 2006 IntroNew.qxd 9/27/06 12:40 PM Page 3

Table of Contents

Introduction 4 Preamble 5 Executive Summary

Part I. 16 The Problem: Climate is Changing, Fast The Climate Context Today 21 Trend Analyses: Extreme Weather Events and Costs 26 Climate Change Can Occur Abruptly 27 The Climate Change Futures Scenarios

Part II. Case Studies 32 Infectious and Respiratory Diseases 32 Malaria 41 West Nile Virus 45 Lyme Disease 48 Carbon Dioxide and Aeroallergens

53 Extreme Weather Events 53 Heat Waves 53 Case 1. European Heat Wave and Analogs for US Cities 58 Case 2. Analog for New South Wales, Australia 60 Floods

65 Natural and Managed Systems 65 Forests 70 Agriculture 77 Marine Ecosystems 77 Case 1. The Tropical Coral Reef 83 Case 2. Marine Shellfish 86 Water

Part III. Financial Implications, 92 Financial Implications Scenarios and Solutions 95 Risk Spreading in Developed and Developing Nations 97 The Limits of Insurability 97 Business Scenarios 102 Constructive Roles for Insurers and Reinsurers 103 Optimizing Strategies for Adaptation and Mitigation 105 Summary of Financial Sector Measures 107 Conclusions and Recommendations Policies and Measures

Appendices 112 Appendix A. Summary Table/Extreme Weather Events and Impacts 114 Appendix B. Additional Findings and Methods for The US Analog Studies of Heat Waves 116 Appendix C. Finance: Property Insurance Dynamics 121 Appendix D. List of Participants, Swiss Re Centre for Global Dialogue

126 Bibliography IntroNew.qxd 9/27/06 12:40 PM Page 4

PREAMBLE Hurricane Katrina

What was once a worst-case scenario for the US Gulf Coast occurred in August 2005. Hurricane Katrina killed hundreds and sickened thousands, created one million displaced persons, and sent ripples throughout the global economy, exposing the vulnerabilities of all nations to climate extremes.

While no one event is conclusive evidence of climate change, the relentless pace of severe weather — prolonged droughts, intense heat waves, violent windstorms, more wildfires and more frequent “100- year” floods — is indicative of a changing climate. Although the associations among greater weather volatility, natural cycles and climate change are debated, the rise in mega-catastrophes and prolonged widespread heat waves is, at the very least, a harbinger of what we can expect in a changing and Warm ocean waters fuel hurricanes. This image depicts the three-day unstable climate. average of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from August 25-27, 2005, and the growing breadth of Hurricane Katrina as it passed over the For the insurance sector, climate change threatens the warm Gulf of Mexico. Yellow, orange and red areas are at or above 820F (27.7°C), the temperature needed for hurricanes to strengthen. By Life & Health and Property & Casualty businesses, as late August SSTs in the Gulf were well over 900F (32.2°C). well as the health of insurers’ investments. Managing Source: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center/Scientific and transferring risks are the first responses of the Visualization Studio insurance industry — and rising insurance premiums and exclusions are already making front-page news. Nonetheless, if we drastically reduce greenhouse gas Many corporations are changing practices and some emissions, our climate may reach a new and are seizing business opportunities for products aimed

PREAMBLE potentially acceptable equilibrium, affording a

| at reducing risks. Corporations and institutional modicum of predictability. Doing so, however, requires 4 investors have begun to consider public policies a more sustainable energy mix that takes into account needed to encourage investments in clean energy on health and environmental concerns, as well as a scale commensurate with the heightened climate and economic feasibility to power our common future. At energy crises. this time, energy prices and supplies, political conflicts and climate instability are converging to stimulate the The scientific findings underlying the unexpected pace development of a new energy plan. and magnitude of climate change demonstrate that greenhouse gases have contributed significantly to the Expanded use of new energy-generation and oceans’ warming at a rate 22 times more than the efficiency-enhancing technologies, involving green atmosphere since 1950. Enhanced evaporation from buildings, solar, wind, tidal, geothermal, hybrids and warmer seas fuels heavier downpours and sequences combined cycle energy systems, can become the of storms. engine of growth for this century. The financial sector, having first sensed the integrated economic impacts of Polar ice is melting at rates unforeseen in the 1990s. global climate change, has a special role to play: to As meltwater seeps down to lubricate their base, some help develop incentivizing rewards, rules and Greenland outlet glaciers are moving 14 kilometers regulations. per year, twice as fast as in 2001, making linear projections for sea level rise this century no longer This report examines a wide spectrum of physical and applicable. North Atlantic freshening — from melting biological risks we face from an unstable climate. It ice and Arctic rainfall — is shifting the circulation also aims to further the development of healthy, safe pattern that has helped stabilize climates for millennia. and economically feasible energy solutions that can Indeed, the slowing of the Ocean Conveyor Belt and help stabilize the global climate system. These the degree of storm destructiveness are occurring at solutions should also enhance public health, improve rates and intensities that past models had projected energy security and stimulate economic growth. would occur much later on in this century. – Paul Epstein and Evan Mills IntroNew.qxd 9/27/0612:40PMPage5 attention andcommitmentof all. change. Thus,soundpolicymakingdemandsthe stake inadaptingtoandslowingtherateofclimate through manysectors.Forthisreasonweallhavea lines,andcancascade borders anddisciplinary impacts. Theimpactsofclimatechangecrossnational world mosaicofinterrelatedvulnerabilities,eventsand on specifictypesofeventsinisolationfromthereal- technical literatureoften“stovepipes”issues,zeroingin potential economicconsequences.Inaddition,the close tothenaturalsciences,withscantnoticeof Most discussionsofclimateimpactsandscenariosstay policymakers, businessleadersandindividuals. scale threatinamannerintendedtobe to organizethevast,fluidpossibilitiesofaplanetary- Ecological andEconomicDimensions”usesscenarios around us,“ClimateChangeFutures:Health, problems facingsocietyandthenaturalsystems exploring casestudiesofsomethecrucialhealth to examiningcurrenttrendsineventsandcosts, how societyreactstothethreatofchange).Inaddition some scenariosarefarmorepositive(dependingon Ontheotherhand, viewed insimpleeconomicterms. disruptive tohumanenterpriseasbemeaninglessif eventsso The worst-casescenarioswouldportray to assessingrisk. ofclimatechangecallsforanewapproach of effects drillingandoilprices.Imaginingthecascade offshore throughtheirimpacton totheheartland properties ofhurricanescanextendfarbeyondcoastal the effects climate defyanarrowfocusonsectors.Forexample, changes andfeedbackssetinmotionbyachanging climate, however, thebewilderingcomplexityof on theproperappreciationofrisk.Incase rests viabilityoftheirindustry challenge sincethevery reinsurers findthemselvesonthefrontlinesofthis understand therisksthatlieahead.Insurersand Many inthebusinesscommunityhavebegunto in thefuture. ofmoreabruptandgreaterchange community warns and quiterapidly. Withrareunanimity, thescientific to thespreadofdisease.Climateisalreadychanging, aspect oflife,frommunicipalbudgetsforsnowplowing every change andtheripplesofthatwillaffect Globalclimate Climate isthecontextforlifeonearth. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY useful to short-term scenariosareneeded. short-term on manyfrontsindicatesthat moresector-specific, are alreadywellunderway. This fasterpaceofchange of thephenomenaassumed to liedecadesinthefuture more unpredictablythanthescenariosoutlined.Many initial SRESscenarios.Climatehaschangedfasterand the But eventsofthelastfiveyearshaveovertaken change willbelinearandinvolvegradualwarming. andbeyondassumethatclimate the nextcentury on EmissionsScenarios(SRES),makeprojectionsinto The IPCCscenarios,containedintheSpecialReport comprehensive decisions. and therebyhelpustomakeconsidered consequences oftheinterplaymultiplevariables carefully, scenarioscanhelpexplorepotential images ofhowthefuturemightunfold.Handled projections, butarestoriesthatpresentalternative actions takentoday. Scenariosarenotsimple explore thepotentialconsequencesoftrendsand some sectorsandthemixofenergysources,to explored scenariosofclimatetrajectories,impactsfor scenarios considered.Otherorganizationshave broadscenariosrepresentativeofthemany very and long-term Change (IPCC)employssixofthevery PanelonClimate scenarios. TheIntergovernmental onclimatechangetouse CCF isnotthefirstreport WHY SCENARIOS? restabilize theclimate. the world’s abilitytoadaptchangeandhelp action andinnovativepolicies,businesscanenhance friendly products,projectsandpolicies.Withearly world andhelpgeneratethedevelopmentofclimate- citizensaroundthe mobilize theattentionofordinary healthandeconomiescanhelp will continuetoaffect and of howclimatechangeisnowadverselyaffecting andsolutions.Anintegratedassessment opportunities only helpbusinessesavoidrisks,butalsoidentify hope isthatClimateChangeFutures(CCF)willnot society adapttoandreducethesenewrisks.Our its pricingandrecommendations,helpingbusiness center ofthisnexus,bothabsorbingriskand,through willbeatthe consequences. Theinsuranceindustry that thesehealthimpactswillhaveeconomic ecosystems andspeciesonwhichwedepend, thehealthofhumansaswell will affect isthatclimatechange underlying premiseofthisreport “Climate ChangeFutures”focusesonhealth.The through whichtheproblemmightbeapproached. change, understandingtheproblemstillrequiresalens While stipulatingtheubiquityofthreatclimate

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With this in mind, the CCF scenarios are designed to complement the far-reaching IPCC framework. KEY POINTS Drawing upon the full-blown, long-term scenarios offered by the IPCC, we have developed two 1. Warming favors the spread of disease. scenarios that highlight possibilities inadequately 2. Extreme weather events create conditions con- considered in past assessments of climate change ducive to disease outbreaks. impacts. 3. Climate change and infectious diseases threaten Both CCF scenarios envision a climate context of grad- wildlife, livestock, agriculture, forests and marine ual warming with growing variability and more weath- life, which provide us with essential resources and constitute our life-support systems. er extremes. Both scenarios are based on “business-as- usual,” which, if unabated, would lead to doubling of 4. Climate instability and the spread of diseases are

atmospheric CO2 from pre-industrial values by midcen- not good for business. tury. Both are based on the current climate trends for 5. The impacts of climate change could increase steady warming along with an increase in extremes, incrementally over decades. with greater and costlier impacts. The compilation of extreme weather events of all types shows a clear 6. Some impacts of warming and greater weather increase over the past decade in the number of volatility could occur suddenly and become wide- extremes occurring in both hemispheres (see figure spread. below). 7. Coastal human communities, coral reefs and forests are particularly vulnerable to warming and Overall costs from catastrophic weather-related events disease, especially as the return time between rose from an average of US $4 billion per year during the 1950s, to US $46 billion per year in the 1990s, extremes shortens. and almost double that in 2004. In 2004, the com- 8. A more positive scenario is that climate reaches bined weather-related losses from catastrophic and a new equilibrium, allowing a measure of adapta- small events were US $107 billion, setting a new tion and the opportunity to rapidly reduce the glob- record. (Total losses in 2004, including non-weather- al environmental influence of human activities, related losses, were US $123 billion; Swiss Re namely fossil fuel combustion and deforestation. 2005a). With Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2005

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY had, by September, broken all-time records yet again. 9. A well-funded, well-insured program to develop

| Meanwhile, the insured percentage of catastrophic and distribute a diverse suite of means to generate 6 losses nearly tripled from 11% in the 1960s to 26% in energy cleanly, efficiently and safely offers enor- the 1990s and reached 42% (US $44.6 billion) in mous business opportunities and may present the 2004 (all values inflation-corrected to 2004 dollars; most secure means of restabilizing the climate. Munich Re NatCatSERVICE). 10. Solutions to the emerging energy crisis must be thro- As an insurer of last resort, the US Federal Emergency roughly scrutinized as to their life cycle impacts on Management Agency has experienced escalating health and safety, environmental integrity, global costs for natural disasters since 1990. Moreover, in security and the international economy.

Extreme Weather Events by Region

500 South America Oceania 400 Europe Africa 300 North America (including Caribbean, Central America) Asia (including Russia) 200 Number of Events 100

0 Year 75 79 83 87 91 95 99 02

These data are taken from EMDAT (Emergency Events Database) from 1975 to 2002. Compiled by the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) at the Universite-Catholique de Louvain in Brussels, Belgium, this data set draws from multiple disaster relief organizations (such as OFDA and USAID), and is therefore skewed toward events that have large human impacts. The data taken from EMDAT were created with the initial support of WHO and the Belgian government. IntroNew.qxd 9/27/06 12:40 PM Page 7

the past decade, an increasing proportion of extreme • Repeated heat waves on the order of the 2003 and weather events has been occurring in developed 2005 summers could severely harm populations, kill nations (Europe, Japan and the US) (see chart on livestock, wilt crops, melt glaciers and spread page 6). wildfires. The first impact scenario, or CCF-I, portrays a world • The probability of such extreme heat has already with an increased correlation and geographical simultaneity of extreme events, generating an increased between two and four times over the past overwhelming strain for some stakeholders. CCF-I century and, based on an IPCC climate scenario, envisions a growing frequency and intensity of more than half the years by the 2040s will have weather extremes accompanied by disease outbreaks summers warmer than that of 2003. and infestations that harm humans, wildlife, forests, crops and coastal marine systems. The events and their • Chronic water shortages would become more aftermaths would strain coping capacities in developing prevalent, especially in semi-arid regions, such as and developed nations and threaten resources and the US West. industries, such as timber, tourism, travel and the energy sector. The ripples from the damage to the • With current usage levels, more environmentally energy sector would be felt throughout the economy. displaced persons and a changing water cycle, the number of people suffering water stress and scarcity In CCF-I, an accelerated water cycle and retreat of most glaciers undermine water supplies in some today will triple in two decades. regions and land integrity in others. Melting of permafrost (permanently frozen land) in the Arctic becomes more pronounced, threatening native peoples and northern ecosystems. And gradually rising seas, compounded VULNERABILITIES IN by more destructive storms cascading over deteriorating barrier reefs, threaten all low-lying regions. THE ENERGY SECTOR Taken in aggregate, these and other effects of a warming and more variable climate could threaten economies worldwide. In CCF-I, some parts of the

developed world may be capable of responding to EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

the disruptions, but the events would be particularly | punishing for developing countries. For the world over, 7 historical weather patterns would diminish in value as guides to forecasting the future.

Image: Photodisc The second impact scenario, CCF-II, envisions a world in which the warming and enhanced variability • Heat waves generate blackouts. produce surprisingly destructive consequences. It • Sequential storms disrupt offshore oil rigs, pipelines, explores a future rife with the potential for sudden, refineries and distribution systems. wide-scale health, environmental and economic • Diminished river flows reduce hydroelectric capacity impacts as climate change pushes ecosystems past and impede barge transport. tipping points. As such, it is a future inherently more • Melting tundra undermines pipelines and power chaotic and unpredictable than CCF-I. transmission lines. • Warmed inland waters shut down power plant Some of the impacts envisioned by the second scenario cooling systems. are very severe and would involve catastrophic, • Lightning claims rise with warming. widespread damages, with a world economy beset by increased costs and chronic, unmanageable risks. Each stage in the life cycle of oil, including Climate-related disruptions would no longer be contained or confined. exploration, extraction, transport, refining and combustion, carries hazards for human health and the Threshold-crossing events in both terrestrial and marine environment. More intense storms, thawing permafrost systems would severely compromise resources and and dried riverbeds, make every stage more ecological functions, with multiple consequences for precarious. the species that depend upon them. For example: IntroNew.qxd 9/27/0612:40PMPage8

8 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY merely ahandfuloftemporizing, correctivemeasures. planning andsubstantivefinancial incentives—not the pathofnon-fossilfuelenergysystemswilltake greenhouse gasemissions.Aggressivelyembarkingon scale implementationofmeasurestoreduce Restabilizing theclimatewilldependonglobal- Finally, therearescenariosofclimatestabilization. (the stabilizingocean“conveyorbelt”). circulation methane; andshiftsinoceanthermohaline withrelease oflargequantities of permafrost, raising sealevelsinchestofeet;acceleratedthawing slippage oficesheetsfromAntarcticaorGreenland, linear disruptionsintheclimatesystemitself— A worst-casescenariowouldincludelarge-scale,non- Still, CCF-IIisnotaworst-casescenario. of extremeevents. times ty duetotheabbreviatedreturn catastrophes longed developing nationconditionsforpro- developed countrieswouldexperience of parts catastrophes. Ineffect, countriestorespond affluent to crippletheresiliencethatenables severe world economysufficiently CCF-II wouldinvolveblowstothe • andextremeeventsoccurring Severe storms damagesfromarise • Large spikesoccurinproperty • Coral reefs,alreadymultiplystressed,collapsefrom • Widespread diebacksoftemperateandnorthern Other non-linearimpactscenariosinclude: markets crash. uninsurable; majorinvestmentscollapse;and developed nations;largeareasandsectorsbecome theadaptivecapacitiesofeven overwhelm sequentially andconcurrentlyacrosstheglobe floods, aswatersbreachdamsandlevees.) would produce100timesthedamageofprevious of majorrivers.(A10%increaseinfloodpeak anddiseases. ofwarming the effects forests fromdroughtandpests. periods asaresultofnatural and increasingvulnerabili- decade. rise fromthecurrent42%to 50% withinthecoming Crop lossesfrompests,pathogensandweedscould extremes andthespreadofpestspathogens. ofmoreweather the potentiallydevastatingeffects for agriculturalproductivitythat,todate,largelyomit both managedandnatural.We examineprojections study climatechangeimpactsonecologicalsystems, Another broadapproachoftheCCFscenariosisto economic ripplesstemmingfromcatastrophicevents. health consequencesandthemanifoldsocial real stovepipe perspectivetendstoplaydownthevery usefulintheseinstances,sincethe is particularly and floods.Anintegratedapproachexploringlinkages natural catastrophesthemselves,includingheatwaves We alsoexaminethepublichealth consequencesof ragweed pollenandsomesoilmolds. atmospheric CO dust andheatwaves),bytheinexorableriseof aspects ofachangingclimate(wildfires,transported bymany special attention,asairqualityisaffected intheUS)receives the pasttwodecades;fourfold The risingrateofasthma(twotothreefoldincreasein humans andwildlife. diseases andbothlinearnon-linearprojectionsfor extremes inexpandingtherangeandintensityofthese andweather disease explorestheroleofwarming examination ofmalaria,West NilevirusandLyme poverty, havecontributedtotheincrease.Our factors, includingland-usechangesandgrowing many otherspeciesinthepastthreedecades.Many Infectious diseaseshaveresurgedinhumansand social stabilityandpublichealth. and envisionthefutureconsequencesforeconomies, each casestudy, weidentifycurrenttrendsunderway andnaturalcatastrophes.In stemming fromwarming damages more widelystudiedissueofproperty and ecologicalconsequencesthatextendbeyondthe we havefocusedoncasestudiesofspecifichealth In choosinghowtoapplythetwoimpactscenarios, APPLYING THESCENARIOS historic challenge. presentedbythis some oftheexpandingopportunities suggesting growingclimateinstabilityandexplores This assessmentexaminessignsandsymptoms 2 in andofitself,whichboosts IntroNew.qxd 9/27/0612:40PMPage9 Extreme Weather Events Temperatures in 2003 were 6°C (11°F) above long-term summer averages. summer long-term above (11°F) 6°C were 2003 in Temperatures malaria. from day each die children African 3,000 Diseases andRespiratory Infectious THE CASESTUDIESINBRIEF Image: NASA/Earth Observatory NASA/Earth Image: Virot/WHO Pierre Image: Culex pipiens mosquitoes breed in city drains. city in breed mosquitoes pipiens Culex Image: Biopix.dk Image: The deer tick that carries Lyme disease. Lyme carries that tick deer The Image: Scott Bauer/USDA Agricultural Research Service Research Agricultural Bauer/USDA Scott Image: Asthma rates have quadrupled in the US since 1980. 1980. since US the in quadrupled have rates Asthma Image: Daniela Spyropoulou/Dreamstime Daniela Image: yields, mountainglaciersandutilitygrids. the potentialimpactofsuch“outlier”eventselsewherefor humanhealth,forests,agricultural explores themultipleimpactsofhighlyanomalous2003 summerheatwaveinEuropeand Heat waves from the burning offossilfuels. from theburning ofairpollutantsandsmog compoundingtheeffects microbes comingfromexpandingdeserts, and the allergenicplantpollensandsomesoilfungi,dustcloudscontainingparticles in developedandunderdevelopednations.NewdriversincluderisingCO Asthma thisinfection. carry willcontinuetoshiftthesuitablerangefordeerticks that models projectthatwarming disability. and AmericaandEuropeaswinterswarm, Lyme diseaseisspreadinginNorth Lyme disease America. been over17,000humancasesand650deathsfromWNVinNorth wintersandspringdroughtsplayrolesinamplifyingthisdisease.Towarm date,therehave and morethan138speciesofbirds.PresentintheUS,Europe,MiddleEastAfrica, West Nilevirus changes formalariainthehighlandsofZimbabwe. Brazil,andprojects flood inMozambique,exploresthesurprisingroleofdroughtnortheast large outbreaks.Thisstudydocumentsthefivefoldincreaseinillnessfollowingasix-week disease worldwide.Warming itsrange,andextremeweathereventscanprecipitate affects Malaria prevalence hasquadrupledintheUSsince1980,andthisconditionisincreasing is thedeadliest,mostdisablingandeconomicallydamagingmosquito-borne are becomingmorecommonandintensethroughout theworld.Thisstudy is the most widespread vector-borne diseaseintheUSandcancauselong-term is themostwidespreadvector-borne (WNV) is an urban-based, mosquito-borne infection, afflicting humans,horses infection,afflicting (WNV) isanurban-based,mosquito-borne 2 , whichincreases

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10 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Droughts and pest infestations contribute to the rise in forest fires. forest in rise the to contribute infestations pest and Droughts continents. most on common more become have Floods THE CASESTUDIESINBRIEF Image: John McColgan, Bureau of Land Management, Alaska Fire Service Fire Alaska Management, Land of Bureau McColgan, John Image: Haber/AP Bill Image: Natural andManagedSystems Natural Healthy crops need adequate water and freedom from pests and disease. and pests from freedom and water adequate need crops Healthy Image: Ruta Saulyte/Dreamstime Ruta Image: Coral reefs nourish fish and buffer shorelines. buffer and fish nourish reefs Coral Image: Oceana Image: Millions of people walk four hours per day to obtain clean water. clean obtain to day per hours four walk people of Millions Image: Pierre Virot/WHO Pierre Image: microbes, and natural disasters routinely damage water-delivery infrastructure. microbes, andnaturaldisastersroutinelydamagewater-delivery and hydropower. Flooding canleadtowatercontaminationwithtoxicchemicalsand in waterqualityandavailabilitywillposegrowthlimitations onhumansettlements,agriculture shiftandmountainicefieldsdisappear, Asweatherpatterns overdrawn andunderfed. changes Water climate changeisexpectedtoresultinmoreheavyrainfallevents. times forsuchinundationsareprojectedtodecreaseindevelopedanddevelopingnations, health andinfrastructure.SeriousfloodsoccurredagaininCentralEurope2005.Thereturn Floods coral reefstocollapse. chemicalsusefultomedicine.Warmingorganisms withpowerful seasanddiseasesmaycause shores,harbor fishandcontain animal polypsthatmakeupcoralreefs,whichbuffer slightly elevatedoceantemperaturescandestroythesymbioticrelationshipbetweenalgaeand filterandcleanbaysestuaries. Even wetlands, anddiseasesofbivalvesthatnormally Marine ecosystems costly andunhealthy. yields, nutrition,foodpricesandpoliticalstability. Chemicalmeasurestolimitinfestationsare under thenewclimate,andaccompanyingoutbreaksofcroppestsdiseases,canaffect Agriculture consequences forhumanhealth,property, wildlife,timberandEarth’s carboncycle. dangers ofwildfire.Large-scaleforestdiebacksarepossible,andtheywouldhavesevere more susceptibletothepests.Thisstudyexaminessynergiesofdroughtandpests, reproductive ratesandactivityofpests,suchassprucebarkbeetles,whiledroughtmakestrees Forests , life’s threats. Undergroundstoresarebeing essentialingredient,facesenormous inundated large parts ofCentralEuropein2002andhadconsequencesforhuman inundated largeparts are experiencingnumerouspestinfestations.Warming increases therange, faces warming, moreextremesanddiseases.Moredroughtflooding faces warming, are under increasing pressure from overfishing, excesswastes,loss of are underincreasingpressurefromoverfishing, IntroNew.qxd 9/27/0612:41PMPage11 POLICY MEASURESFOREVERYONE vulnerable. are vulnerableifthoseinsurersthattheyinsure capacity toabsorbandspreadtherisk,reinsurers and providestheexpertise The insuranceindustry the clientswhobuyinsuranceinsureeachother. the wordsofoneprominentinsuranceexecutive,it’s societyasawhole.In and reinsurers,buttheyaffect forinsurers These majorrisksareanobviousconcern unstable systemsarepronetosuddenchange. Moreover, instabilityisnotgoodforbusinessand to playthisrolewillhaveamajordisruptiveeffect. jeopardizes theabilityofglobalinsuranceindustry adapting tochangeandanyphenomenonthat plays. Insuranceisamajor, time-testedmethodfor of themacroeconomicroleinsuranceindustry point fortheClimateChangeFuturesprojectbecause The insuranceperspectiveprovidesausefulaccess to disasterpreparednessandrecovery. continue torisedespitesubstantialresourcesdevoted disasters havealsorisen,andassociatedlosses areas, thenumberandintensityofweather-related more peopleinhabitvulnerablecoastsandotherat-risk manage theserisks.Asrealestatepricesriseand that flowfromclimatechangeandhelpcustomers Insurers, mustbeequippedtoanalyzethenewrisks change. Insurers,statestheAssociationofBritish and standtobeprimemoversinrespondingclimate climate change.Assuch,insurersareimpactedby the insurancesectorisincreasinglyvulnerableto andassetmanagement, activities infinancialservices spreading. Inbothcorebusinesses,aswell financial strategiesforriskmanagementand technical strategiesforlossreductionaswell The corebusinessofinsurancetraditionallyinvolves climate change. of window intothebroadmacroeconomiceffects areas, andamongindustries,itprovidesanatural spreading riskacrosstime,overlargegeographical providesamechanismfor the insuranceindustry The conceptofriskloomsoveralltheseimpacts.Since A UNIQUEPERSPECTIVE THE INSURER’SOVERVIEW: greenhouse gasreductioncommitments bysome The KyotoTreaty notwithstanding,anddespitestrong consumption andpoliticalparticipation. footprint” andtheimplications oftheirown abouttheirown“carbonAll citizenscanlearn presented bynewtechnologies. and strategiesaswellthefinancialopportunities capital marketscanhelpeducateclientsaboutrisks include climateissuesininvestmentdecisions.The Mainstreamfinancialanalysescan and opportunities. forclimaterisks Investors canevaluatetheirportfolios programs andportfolios. must bebetterintegratedintoplanningproducts, aspects ofinvestmentsandinsurance,theserisks including liabilities.Climatechangechallengesall future climate.Theycanexaminethenewexposures, overcome thelackofhistoricalguidelinesforassessing continue toimproveclimateriskassessmentmethods and information Insurers canamassmorepertinent analyses intotheirstrategy, planningandoperations. carbon dioxideemissionsandincorporatetheir Companies canstudytheirownrisksstemmingfrom times. that comefromearliercarbon-indifferent identify misalignedincentivesandthrowbacks climate-friendly ways.Specialattentionisneededto need tousethisknowledgeframeregulationsin aswellgovernments industry Regulators inevery bodiesandthepublic. international governments, businesses,regulators, needed tobetterinform science andsocietalimpactsofclimatechangeis measures. Abroadeducationalprogramonthebasic climate changeisthefirststeptowardtakingcorrective posedby Understanding therisksandopportunities AWARENESSBUILDING different conceivablefutures. different contingencyplansthatwillworkin and onformulating measures thatwillhavebeneficialconsequences— are used,theinitialfocusshouldbeon“noregrets” economic choicestomake.Nomatterwhatscenarios all nationswillhaveenergy, environmentaland becomes allthemoreurgent.Innextseveralyears, impetus forpracticalactionbyallstakeholders or businessagenda.Asthecostsofinactionrise, however, riskdoesnotcompliantlybowtothepolitical costs ofclimatechange.Asallinsurersknow, orbusinessestoaddressthepotential governments littleactionhasbeentakenbymost governments,

11 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY IntroNew.qxd 9/27/0612:41PMPage12

12 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. Ceres is a national network of investments funds, environmental organizations and other public interest groups working to ad to working groups interest public other and organizations environmental funds, investments of network national a is Ceres 1. 2. The Carbon Disclosure Project provides a secretariat for the world’s largest institutional investor collaboration on the bus the on collaboration investor institutional largest world’s the for secretariat a provides Project Disclosure Carbon The 2. United Nations Headquarters, NewYorkUnited NationsHeadquarters, City • A framework forplanningclimate-relatedsurprises. • Policy recommendations aimedatoptimizing • Scenarios ofplausiblefutureswithbothgradual frommultiplefields:public • Involvement ofexperts • Inclusion ofdiseaseshumans,otheranimals,land impacts,ratherthancentury- Anticipationofnear-term • • A combinedfocusonthephysical,biologicaland • The integrationofcorporate“stakeholders”directlyin Unique AspectsofCCF American MuseumofNaturalHistory, NewYork City Armonk, NY Armonk, Swiss Re Rüschlikon, Switzerland Swiss ReCentreforGlobalDialogue 3. The Equator Principles provide an industry approach for financial institutions in determining, assessing and managing enviro managing and assessing determining, in institutions financial for approach industry an provide Principles Equator The 3. September 2003: History systemsandeconomies. Earth the risingrisksthatclimatechangepresentsforhealth, the UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme,regarding MedicalSchool,SwissReand Environment atHarvard of threeinstitutions,theCenterforHealthandGlobal The CCFprojectwasdevelopedfromtheconcerns BRIEF IN THE CCFPROJECT November 2005: August 2004: June 2004: the part of business. http://www.ceres.org/ business. of part the http://www.cdproject.net scale projections. adaptation andmitigation. and step-wisechange. biology.climatology andconservation biology, forestry, ecology, economicsand medicine,agriculture,marine health, veterinary resources andnature’s systems. life-support plants andmarinelife,withtheirimplicationsfor economic impactsofclimatechange. the assessmentprocess. financing. http://www.equator-principles.com/principles.shtml financing. Executive Roundtable Workshop Report Released Report Scoping Conference Project investment policies. practicesand guide riskassessment,reporting enunciated byCeres commitment tosustainabilityprinciples,suchasthose Corporate executivemanagerscandeclaretheir andmarkets. which caninfluenceacceptednorms andpoliticalchoices, can alterconsumptionpatterns Individuals andtheinstitutionsinwhichtheyareactive address theproblemwillbecomemorepalatable. With anappreciationoftherisksweface,actionsto and timetables. planning forthepotentialneedacceleratedtargets measuresthat complement constructive short-term “Imagining theunmanageable”canhelpguide impacts onmultiplesectorsandevenclimateshocks. The useofscenariosallowsustoenvisionafuturewith climate change. of understanding size oftheinvestmentwemakewilldependonour atmospheric concentrationsofgreenhousegases.The a 60-70%reductioninemissionsisneededtostabilize 1990 levelsby2012,whiletheIPCCcalculatesthat a 6-7%reductionofgreenhousegasemissionsbelow response. ThefirstphaseoftheKyotoProtocolcallsfor The criticalissueistheorderofmagnitude andinstitutionalframeworkdesigned • A regulatory incentives • Elimination ofmisalignedor“perverse” • Significant, financialincentivesforbusinessesand framework forsolutionsisthefollowing: and asetofintegrated,coordinatedpolicies.A byallstakeholders effort scale willrequireaconcerted Reducing theoutputofgreenhousegasesonaglobal CARBON OUTPUT RAPIDLY REDUCING constrain thegenerationofwastes. to promotesustainableuseofresourcesand environmentally destructivepractices. that subsidizecarbon-basedfuelsand consumers. 2 , andthoseliketheEquatorPrinciples the problemandonpaceof 1 and theCarbonDisclosure iness implications of climate change. climate of implications iness vance environmental stewardship on stewardship environmental vance nmental and social risk in project in risk social and nmental 3 to IntroNew.qxd 9/27/0612:41PMPage13 the worldaddressesclimate change. point inthepacewithwhich and couldmarkaturning defenses, breadth andmagnitudeastooverwhelm punctuated bysurprises.HurricaneKatrinawasofsuch of adaptation.Butevengradualchangecanbe Climate canchangegradually, allowingsomedegree AHEAD PLANNING multiple benefits,includingreducedairpollution. intheirownrightandbring typically cost-effective toreduce greenhousegasemissionsare efforts increased populationandexposuresalone.Similarly, of climatechange,asdisasterlosseswillrisedueto These measureswouldbesoundevenintheabsence securities. marketsincarbon derivatives, andpromotesecondary development ofcarbonrisk-hedgingproducts,suchas instruments. Thecapitalmarketscanfosterthe ofprojectfinanceorinnovativefinancial take theform funds, canplayapivotalroleinthisprocess.This Institutional investors,suchasstateandunionpension renewable energyandawayfrompollutingindustries. incentivize themovementofinvestmentcapitaltoward products. Investorscanfindcreativewaysto working jointlywiththeirclientstodevelopnew inlow-carbontechnologiesandby own expertise adopting cleanertechnologies),bydevelopingtheir through revisionsincoverage(easingtheriskof Insurers caninfluencethebehaviorofotherbusinesses manufacturing capabilityindevelopingnations. technologies, andfinanceinsurenew establish acleandevelopmentfundtotransfernew andUnitedNationsagencies,can governments andthefinancialsector,Industry with inpartnership energyinfrastructure. construct thealternative frameworkforcarbontradingandhelp regulatory procurement practicestostimulatedemand,setupa climate-friendly activities.Theycanrevisegovernment that encourageconsumersandproducerstopursue taxincentives low-carbon technologiesandformulate consumption. Theycanfinancepublicprogramsusing incentivesforoilandcoalexploration perverse and privatefundsareencouraged,eliminate subsidies sothatclimate-friendlyinvestmentsofpublic production andconsumption.Theycanstreamline instruments tocreatemarketsignalsthatalter canemployfinancial Regulators andgovernments more productive,stableandsustainablefuture. may bejusttheenginethattakesusintoahealthier, andthecleanenergytransition opportunities, enormous challenge ofclimatechangepresentsgraverisksand atransitionawayfromfossilfuels.The jump-start of reinforcingfinancialinstrumentsthatcanrapidly As webraceformoresurprisesmustprepareaset financial architecture? theblueprintsforanew come togethertoform precipitate another“timeout”inwhichallstakeholders energy, theenvironmentandultimatelyeconomy are becomingunsustainable.Willthetriplecrisesof our dependenceonfossilfuelsarewidespreadand The health,ecologicalandeconomicconsequencesof in aproductivepost-wareconomicorder. US GIbill,thecombined“carrotsandsticks”ushered fund andthefinancialincentivesembeddedinto signals.ComplementedbytheMarshallPlan monetary the BrettonWoods agreementsestablishednew three decadesofwar, thedustbowlanddepression, often done.AttheendofWorld War II,following development paradigmisnotsomethingsocietieshave Planning onaglobalscaletorestructurethe recentpast. unlikely inthevery itself settheglobalcommunityonacoursethought magnitude,thereconstructionprocessmay enormous programof embark onapubliclyfundedrecovery havebeenatragicwakeupcallforall.Aswe storms, with theincreasingdestructivenessofmoisture-laden The compoundinginfluencesofvulnerabilities,along

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PART I: The Climate Context Today Part1.qxd 9/27/0612:43PMPage16

16 | THE CLIMATE CONTEXT TODAY cap shrinks,asdoAlpineglaciers. Polar grow; duringtheinterglacialperiods,North cial times,thepolaricecapsandAlpineglaciers Duringgla- respitesofwarmth. ed byrelativelyshort between twostates:longperiodsoficycoldinterrupt- hasalternated For morethantwomillionyears,Earth so coldthatlifeasweknowitwouldbeimpossible. radiation fromtheearth’s theplanetwouldbe surface), The simulations represented by the band in (a) were done with only with done were (a) in band the by represented simulations The Temperatures Figure 1.1SimulatedAnnualGlobalMeanSurface CO begs questions.Withoutgreenhousegasessuchas inevitably because ofanenhancedgreenhouseeffect The propositionthatclimatechangeposesathreat CLIMATE ISCHANGING, THE PROBLEM: natural forcings: solar variation and volcanic activity. Those in (b) in Those activity. volcanic and variation solar forcings: natural were done with anthropogenic forcings: greenhouse gases and an and gases greenhouse forcings: anthropogenic with done were estimate of sulphate aerosols. Those encompassed by the band in (c) in band the by encompassed Those aerosols. sulphate of estimate were done with both natural and anthropogenic forcings included. forcings anthropogenic and natural both with done were The best match with observations is obtained in (c) when both natural both when (c) in obtained is observations with match best The and anthropogenic factors are included. included. are factors anthropogenic and These charts formed the basis for the IPCC’s conclusion that human that conclusion IPCC’s the for basis the formed charts These activities were contributing to climate change. climate to contributing were activities Image: IPCC 2001 IPCC Image: 2 trapping heat(byabsorbinglong-wavelength FAST systems are responding to the warming onallcontinents systems arerespondingtothe warming weather isbecomingmoreextreme; andbiological changing; humansarecontributing tothosechanges; report’s conclusionswere:Climateis fourprimary al. 2001),theIPCCcametosameinsight.The in2001(Houghtonet In itsThirdAssessmentReport species tobecomeageophysicalforce.” biologistE.O.Wilsonputit,“Humanityisthefirst ary climate.Astheevolution- on theplanettoitselfaffect turies, humanityhasbecomealargeenoughpresence climateofrecentcen- tothenurturing thanks inpart tions andthemovementofcontinents.Now, ironically, been drivenbytheMilankovitchcycles,volcanicerup- too dry, nortoowet.Inthepast,climatechangehas toocold, drop ofaclimatethatwasneithertoowarm, lation duringthatperiodoccurredagainsttheback- century. Thefive-billion-personincreaseinhumanpopu- mate stabilitythathasprevailedsincetheearly19th cli- ment havealltakenplaceduringtheextraordinary economicdevelop- bers andthemiraclesofmodern than intherecentpast:Theexplosionofhumannum- or changegradually. Neverhasthisbeenmoretrue taking agamblethatthosecircumstanceswillcontinue fast enough.Societiesadapttotheircurrentconditions, tions havealsoperishedwhentheycouldnotadapt ate andplanahead(Calvin2002).Butmanyciviliza- by callingontheircapacitiestocommunicate,cooper- made itthroughtheadversityof“coldreversals”didso climatechangesandthosegroupsthat have survived time.Throughhistory,particular humansasaspecies climateata and economiesthatadapttoaparticular our species,butitisathreattocultures,civilizations of Climate changemaynotbeathreattothesurvival what’swarming, theproblem? ofcivilization.So,iftheclimateis and efflorescence ularly themostrecentspanthatencompassedbirth interregnums,partic- and prosperedduringthewarmer thecoldperiods glacial period;ourancestorssurvived Much ofhumanevolutiontookplaceduringthislatest time soon(BergerandLoutre2002). period —theHolocenewasnotabouttoendany long-wave cyclesprojectthatthecurrentinterglacial al. 2001)(seefigure1.1).Recentcalculationsofthese variability withanthropogenicinfluences(Houghtonet however, canonlybeexplainedbycombiningnatural temperature changesfromtheindustrialrevolutionon, Serbian mathematicianwhodecipheredthem.The Earth’s orbit—theMilankovitichcycles,namedfor the variationsintilts,wobblesandeccentricitiesof Up untilthe20thcentury, thesecyclesweredrivenby Part1.qxd 9/27/0612:43PMPage17 warming alreadyinplacehasyettobecomemanifest. warming degreeof of heatintotheatmosphere. Thusacertain Intermittently, theoceanreleasessomeofitshugestore al. 2005). tury, et (Barnett havingabsorbed84%ofthewarming ofthe20thcen- fortheglobalwarming the repository (Levitus etal.2000).Itappearsthatthedeepoceanis the globe,downtotwomilesbelowsurface alongwiththerestof The oceanshavebeenwarming that rangefromtheimmediatetohundredsofyears. atmosphere ismarkedbyexchangesofheatonscales climate. Therelationshipbetweentheoceansand are themaindriversofweatherandstabilizers of theirstaggeringcapacitytostoreheat,theoceans The world’s oceansdominateglobalclimate.Because across theglobe. atmospheric watervapor—shiftingweatherpatterns atmosphere heatstheoceans,meltsiceandincreases Warmingthin blanketthatinsulatestheearth. ofthe accumulate intheloweratmosphere,reinforcing theirexcessby-products As fossilfuelsareburned, systems thatcontrolenergydistributionontheplanet. In essence,humansaretinkeringwiththeoperating (Petit etal.1999).CO permillion(ppm)to280ppm ing from180parts atmosphere haveremainedwithinanenveloperang- (from theexcessCO andmoreacidicoceans Meanwhile,warmer Earth). tons ofcarbonannually(onetonforeachpersonon fuels (oil,coalandnaturalgas)generates6billion tion (seeMannetal.1998).Thecombustionoffossil from Vostok inAntarctica,CO past 420,000years,asrecordedinicecorestaken have consistentlytrackedglobaltemperatures.Forthe atmosphere. Atmosphericlevelsofcarbondioxide tion offossilfuels,whichpumpcarbondioxideintothe climateprimarilythroughthecombus- Humans affect “Get overit,climateiswarming.” American AssociationfortheAdvancementofScience, Congress ata2004conferenceconvenedbythe Alley putitsuccinctly, from addressingskepticalstaffers etal.2001).AsglaciologistRichard (see McCarthy enormous amountsofCO enormous ocean andterrestrial“carbonsinks”haveabsorbed These levelshavebeenreacheddespitethefactthat etal.2004a). (Seffan most likelytheirhighestlevelin55millionyears heat andlessCO 2 (Kortzinger etal.2004). (Kortzinger 2 already absorbed)takeupless 2 levels arenow380ppm, 2 since theindustrialrevolu- 2 levels inthelower reflected fromtheshrinkingice cover. is absorbedbytheexpanding openoceanandlessis large (ACIA2005),achiefreason beingthatmoreheat expected toincreasetwiceasfastintheworldat regions. Overthiscentury, Arctictemperaturesare —icecoverinpolarandAlpine ing ofthecryosphere oftheincreasedvaporcomesfrommelt- flooding. Part regions theyarepoorlyabsorbedandthiscanleadto recurrent flooding.Andwhenheavyrainshitparched heat andevaporation,whileothersareexperiencing 2005), someareasarebecomingdrierduetomore occurringtoday.terns Asmodels projected (Trenberth with theincreasinglyerraticandsevereweatherpat- accelerated hydrological(water)cycleisassociated weather extremesfromseveralperspectivesandthe er. Theincreasedenergyinthesystemintensifies ates low-pressurepocketsthatpullinwindsandweath- oration andparchingofsomeEarth’s cre- surface evap- intense, tropical-likedownpours,whilewarming, Higherhumidityalsofuelsmore greater warming. gases iswatervapor. Greaterevaporationleadsto One ofthelessappreciatednaturalheat-trapping al. 2003). 15% overthepasttwodecades(Trenberth et some US and Karl2003].Water vaporhas increasedoverthe Trenberth[6% moreforeach1°C(1.8°F)warming; atmosphereholdsmorewatervapor and awarmer increase evaporation, warming) ing (andlandsurface 1998; WMO2004;Trenberth 2005).Oceanwarm- oceans isalteringtheworldwatercycle(Daietal. respond. Warming oftheatmosphereanddeep In severalwaystheoceanshavealreadybegunto Satellite images showing warmed Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and Oceans Pacific and Atlantic warmed showing images Satellite Figure 1.2TheWarming Tropical Seas an especially warm Gulf of Mexico in early August 2005. The 2005. August early in Mexico of Gulf warm especially an tropical oceans have become warmer and saltier (from increased (from saltier and warmer become have oceans tropical evaporation; Curry et al. 2003), and warmer sea surfaces evaporate surfaces sea warmer and 2003), al. et Curry evaporation; rapidly and provide moisture that fuels hurricanes. hurricanes. fuels that moisture provide and rapidly Image: NOAA NOAA Image:

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Figure 1.3 Greenland EXTREMES

One of the earliest and most noticeable changes detected as a result of recent warming has been an increase in extreme weather events. Over the last half- century, weather patterns have become more variable, with more frequent and more intense rainfall events (Karl et al. 1995; Easterling et al. 2000). As Earth adjusts to our rewriting of the climate script, there have been changes in the timing and location of precipitation, as well as more intense heat waves and prolonged droughts (Houghton et al. 2001).

Figure 1.4 Climate Change Alters the Distribution of Weather Events

Extent of summer ice melt in Greenland in 1992 (left) and in 2002 (right). Greenland is losing mass at 3% per decade and melting rates have accelerated. Melting in 2004 was occurring at 10 times the rates observed in 2000. Pools of meltwater are visible on the surface each summer and meltwater is percolating down through crevasses to lubricate the base. As the “rivers of ice” speed up, the potential for slippage of large glaciers from Greenland increases. Images: Clifford Grabhorn/ACIA 2005

Sea ice covers approximately 75% of the Arctic Ocean surface. Ice and snow reflect 50-80% of the sunlight coming in, while open ocean absorbs about 85% (Washington and Parkinson 2005). Greenland and polar ice are losing mass at rates not thought possible until late in this century (Parkinson et al. 1999;

THE CLIMATE CONTEXT TODAY THE CLIMATE Rothrock et al. 1999; ACIA 2005). The decrease in | Earth’s reflectivity (albedo) when sea and alpine ice

18 melts produces a “positive” feedback (Chapin et al. 2005), meaning that warming leads to further warming. Since 1978, ocean ice has been melting at 3% per decade, and there could be a threshold change in the globe’s reflectivity beyond which the system rapidly changes state.

Global warming is not occurring uniformly. The three warmest “hotspots” are Alaska, Northern Siberia and the Antarctic Peninsula. Since 1950, summer tempera- Schematic showing the effect on extreme temperatures when (a) the tures in these regions have increased 4-6°F (2-3°C) mean temperature increases, (b) the variance increases, and when (c) while winter temperatures have risen 8-10°F (4-5°C). both the mean and variance increase. The current climate appears to Nights and winters — crucial in heat waves and be a hybrid of (b) and (c); that is, the average temperature is warming and more hot and cold anomalies are occuring. important for crops — are also warming twice as fast Image: IPCC 2001 as globally averaged temperatures (Easterling et al. 1997). Clouds contribute to warmer nights, while atmospheric circulation of winds and heat create dis- proportionate heating during winters. All of these changes — warmer nights and winters, and wider swings in weather — affect people, disease vectors and ecological systems. Part1.qxd 9/27/06 12:43 PM Page 19

Table 1.1 Extreme Weather Events and Projected Changes

Source: IPCC 2001

While the amount of rain over the US has increased mer of 2005. In July, a heat wave, anomalous in its 7% over the past century, that increase camouflages intensity, duration and geographic extent, enveloped more dramatic changes in the way this increased pre- the US and southern Europe. In the US particularly, cipitation has been delivered. Heavy events (over 2 records were exceeded in numerous cities. Phoenix, inches/day) have increased 14% and very heavy AZ experienced temperatures over 100°F for 39 con- events (over 4 inches/day) have increased 20% secutive days, while the mercury reached 129°F in (Groisman et al. 2004). The increased rate of heavy Death Valley, CA. Drought turned a large swath of CONTEXT TODAY THE CLIMATE | precipitation events is explained in great part by the southern Europe into a tinderbox and when it ended tropical ocean surfaces (Curry et al. 2003) along with with torrential rains, flooding besieged central and 19 a heated atmosphere. The frequency and intensity of southern parts of the continent and killed scores. extremes are projected to increase in the coming decades (Houghton et al. 2001; Meehl and Tebaldi OUTLIERS AND NOVEL EVENTS 2004; ABI 2005) (see Table 1.1). Beyond extremes, there are outliers, events greater Recent analysis of tropical cyclones (Emanuel 2005; than two or three standard deviations from the aver- Webster et al. 2005) found that their destructive age that are literally off the charts. A symptom of an power (a function of storm duration and peak winds) intensified climate system is that the extraordinary had more than doubled since the 1970s, and the fre- becomes more ordinary. We have already experi- quency of large and powerful storms had increased, enced major outlier events: the 2003 summer and that these changes correlated with ocean warm- European heat wave was one such event—with tem- ing. Changes in the variance and strength of weather peratures a full six standard deviations from the norm. patterns accompanying global warming will most likely This event is addressed in depth in this report. have far greater health and ecological consequences than will the warming itself. For developing nations, such truly exceptional events leave scars that retard development for years. It took Examples abound of the costs of weather anomalies. years for Honduras to rebuild infrastructure damaged The most recent series of extremes occurred in the sum- in the 1998 Hurricane Mitch, for example. Part1.qxd 9/27/0612:43PMPage20

20 | THE CLIMATE CONTEXT TODAY of naturalvariabilityandachanging baseline. reflectingthecombination with currentweatherpatterns and Philander2000;Kerr2004; Wara et al.2005), have alreadyalteredtheENSOphenomenon(Fedorov these anomalousyearsaswell.Climatechangemay lossesfromextremestendtospikeduring property and rodents(Epstein1999;Kovatsetal.1999) tate “clusters”ofillnessescarriedbymosquitoes,water associated withweatheranomaliesthatcanprecipi- intense droughtsinsomeregions.ENSOeventsare andwetterconditions overall,alongwith ed warmer Warm ENSOevents(ElNiño)haveinthepastcreat- threetosevenyears. steam”every by “lettingoff helping tostabilizeclimatethroughitsoscillationsand one ofEarth’s coupledocean-atmospheric systems, Oscillation(ENSO)phenomenonis Niño/Southern nested withintheglobalclimatesystem.TheEl modes Climate changemaybealteringoscillatory CHANGES INNATURAL MODES cant underestimates(Hansen2005). al. 2004;Domacket2005),thesemaybesignifi- sheets (DeAngelisandSkvarca2003;Scambroset accelerated meltingofGreenlandandAntarcticaice willbe1to3feet(30-90cm).With of thecentury the absenceofcollapsesicesheets,SLRbyend 2004) havebeenmadeforsealevelrise(SLR),andin 2001; CazanaveandNerem2004,Churchetal. (Cabanesetal. Projections fromrecentobservations unraveling.) systems, while“positive”onescontributetotheir (“Negative” feedbackshelpreinforceandbind regardingfeedbacks. as welluncertainties how societywillrespondandadjustenergychoices, (18°F). Alltherangesarebasedonestimatesasto in “cooling”sulfatesalsoraisesprojectionsto10°C 2005). Andreaeetal.(2005)projectthatadecrease etal. ty becomesevenmoreexaggerated(Stainforth upper endoftherangeto11°C(20°F)andvariabili- change; andanensembleofmodelsextendsthe positive feedbacksdrivingthesystemintoaccelerated that wemayhavevastlyunderestimatedtheroleof (or 2.5-10°F).Multiplerunsofclimatemodelssuggest some1.4-5.4°C2001) projectstheclimatetowarm theIPCC(Houghtonetal. Over thenextcentury CLIMATE PROJECTIONS made landfallinBrazilearly2004. Atlanticthat ever hurricanerecordedinthesouthern totaling overUS$5billion;RMS2002),andthefirst through CentralEuropeinrapidsuccession(withlosses of1999thatswept as thetwinChristmaswindstorms Wholly newtypesofeventsarealsooccurring,such ic systemknownastheNAO. thebehaviorofthismassive atmospher- — isaffecting into theatmospherebyoverheatedIndianOcean rising temperature—especiallytheenergyreleased play, Hurrellandcolleagues(2001)foundthatEarth’s a “positivephase”eachwinter. Modelingthisinter- and South)tendedonaveragetobelockedin (North During the1980sand1990s,twoairsystems Atlantic in • The layeringoffreshwaterintheNorth • It ispossiblethatmorehurricaneswilltraversethe • Ocean contrastshelpingtopropelAfricandust • Heat wavesinEuropefromdecreasedevaporation • movingeastacrosstoEurope. Swifter windstorms These changescouldberelatedtothefollowing: er systemsmovingwestandeastacrosstheAtlantic. sures. Thecompositechangesmaybealteringweath- sets upanincreasedcontrastintemperaturesandpres- and gettingsaltierfromenhancedevaporation.This Meanwhile, thetropicalAtlantichasbeenwarming latitudes arelayeringfreshwaternearGreenland. circulation. Meltingiceandmorerainfallingathigh and drivesthe“oceanconveyorbelt”orthermohaline Ocean istheflywheelthatpullsGulfStreamnorth Atlantic deepwaterintheNorth The overturning NORTH ATLANTIC THE CHANGING 2002). for health,ecologyandeconomies(Stensethetal. mer weatherintheUSandEurope,withimplications winterandsum- ability (Hurrelletal.2001),affecting may alsobealteringthisnaturalmodeofclimatevari- USandinEurope.Globalwarming ty intheNortheast activi- windstorm mate modeandtheonethatgoverns AtlanticOscillation(NAO)isanothercli- The North picked upwatervaporfromtheheatedIndianOcean. low pressures,whichdrawinmonsoonsthathave ofAsiaandmeltingtheHimalayascreate warming and lesstiedwithENSO(Kumaretal.1999),as In Asia,themonsoonsmaybegrowingmoreextreme Northeast US. Northeast contributing tonor’eastersandcoldwintersinthe tropics andmid-latitudesmaybe contrast towarmer the fallseasonisextended). Atlantic easttowestaspressureschange(and clouds acrosstotheCaribbeanandUS. Atlantic. theNorth off Part1.qxd 9/27/0612:43PMPage21 tries tosettleintoanewstate (Broecker1997). andpotentially mate lurchesbetweencoldand warm, ascli- an economicallydisastrous“flickering climate,” oftheglobeaswellprospect strategic parts ing mightprecipitateasuddencoolingineconomically the counterintuitivebutrealpossibilitythatglobalwarm- The dangersofdisruptionoceancirculationinvolve Wadhams andMunk2004). ing thevigorofglobalcirculation(Munk2003; (Peterson etal.2002).Thisfresheningmaybereduc- rain fallsathighlatitudesandflowsintotheArcticSea 2005), asmeltingiceflowsintotheocean,andmore andMauritzen etal.2003;Curry 2002; Curry Atlantichasbeengettingfresher(Dicksonetal. North oftheconveyorbeltin water thatsinksaspart lize climateovermillennia.Thecold,dense,saline and has helpedtostabi- waternorth that dragswarm — thepulley-likesystemofsinkingwaterinArctic project slowingorcollapseoftheoceanconveyorbelt Atlantic region.Mostmodels(Houghtonetal.2001) system thatdeliverssignificantheattotheNorth Finally, thereisthequestionofoceancirculation destructive storms. years withunusuallyintenseheatwavesandhighly mate systemhasusheredinananomalousseriesof rate slowly. Afterthis“correction,”theenergizedcli- (Hoerling andKumar2003),ascoolwatersevapo- oceanfordrought” ing heat),becoming“Theperfect cold(bury- Pacificturned have occurred,astheeastern Then, in1998,anotherstep-wiseadjustmentmay US. Termites proliferatedinNewOrleans. andmiddlesectionsofthe killing frostsinthesouthern and ninemonths;Trenberth 1997)eliminatedpest- the longestpersistingElNiñoconditions(fiveyears Niños ofthecentury, timesdecreasedand thereturn since 1887.TheperiodincludedthetwolargestEl longer thanatanytimeaccordingtorecordskept Niños becamelarger, morefrequentandpersisted ed acrossthePacific.Between1976and1998,El became warmer, pressuresandwindsshift- assurface 1976 (CLIVAR PacificOcean 1992).Theeastern One step-wiseclimateshiftmayhaveoccurredaround may alreadyhaveoccurredinthepastthreedecades. ies discontinuities.Severalstep-wiseshiftsinclimate variability,that looksatlong-aswellshort-term stud- Climate ResearchProgramme,acollaborativeeffort CLIVAR, ClimateVariability andPredictabilityWorld DISCONTINUITIES temperature episodes,epidemicsandfamine). health andnutritioninthedevelopingworld(extreme increase ineventswithmaterialconsequencesfor notable undergoing change,withaparticularly all. Thecompositionofeventtypeshasalsobeen DAT 2005),andthelossesarebeginningtobefeltby Hemisphere(EM- events areoccurringintheNorthern around theglobe.Inpastdecade,moresuch of theassociatedlosses,however, variesconsiderably (EM-DATrisen overthepastcentury 2005).Thenature The numberofweather-relateddisastershasalready unstable climateregime. health, ecologicalandeconomicconsequencesofan set thestageforassessinglikelihoodofmore extreme weathereventsandassociatedcosts,which for thescenarios,wefirstconsidertrendsin (IFRC andRCS1999).To developthecontext further andHurricaneFloydintheUS1999 windstorms the consequencesofUS$10billionEuropean immediate areaofimpact,aswasshownbystudies The costofclimateeventsquicklyspreadsbeyondthe spread risks. insurers, reinsurers,andotherswhomustmanage multiple geographiclocationsincreasetheexposureof quent events,anddisastersoccurringconcurrentlyin sequences themselvesincreasevulnerabilitytosubse- oped aswelldevelopingnations.Therapid andresilienceindevel- leave littletimeforrecovery hittingthesameregioninsequence intense storms times ofdisastersbecomeshorter. Morefrequent, Vulnerabilities todamagesalsoincreaseasthereturn varies withlocationandsocioeconomicdevelopment. weather (Cohenetal.2001).Vulnerability todisasters bythe about 25%oftheUSeconomyisaffected The ChicagoMercantileExchangeestimatesthat WEATHER EVENTSANDCOSTS TREND ANALYSES: EXTREME

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22 | THE CLIMATE CONTEXT TODAY countries, respectively(MunichRe2004). approximately 40/60betweenwealthyandpoor trillion (in2004USdollars)(Mills2005),apportioned arise from storm events,largelybecausegovernments, arise fromstorm amount ofinsurancepayouts inhigh-incomecountries 40% inhigh-incomecountries. Adisproportionate total costsinlow-incomecountries,thefigurerisesto ways ofspreadingrisk.Whileinsurancecovers4% harm’s way. Thedevelopedworldhassophisticated phy, thetypeofriskandpoliticalcloutthosein Where theburdenoflossesfallsdependsongeogra- the 1990s(AmericanRe2005). over 40%ofthetotaldisasterlossesbeinginsuredin ratio hasbeenrisingtwiceasquicklyintheUS,with 1950s to19%inthe1990sand35%2004.The fraction oftheglobaltotaleconomiclossesin catastrophes isontherise,increasingfromasmall oflossesfromweather-related The insuredportion of9/11intheUS. that experiencedintheaftermath spective, therecentannualaverageisonaparwith per- burden ofthesecostsoninsurersincontemporary “all” From 1980through2004,theeconomiccostsof a international or supraregional and overstretched clearly is resilience region’s affected the if “great” considered are Events Figure 1.5GlobalWeather-Related Lossesfrom“Great”Events:1950-2005 As a rule, this is the case when there are thousands of fatalilities, when hundreds of thousands of people are made homeless, o homeless, made are people of thousands of hundreds when fatalilities, of thousands are there when case the is this rule, a As economic losses — depending on the economic circumstances of the country concerned — and/or insured losses reach exceptional le exceptional reach losses insured and/or — concerned country the of circumstances economic the on depending — losses economic Source: Munich Re, NatCatSERVICE. Re, Munich Source: 1 weather-related naturaldisasterstotaledUS$1.4 Insured lossess(2005values),Trend Economic losses(2005values),Trend ––––– 2,3 - To putthe life fallspredominantlyonthepoor. nantly onwealthierpopulations,whereasthelossof economic costs(especiallyinsuredcosts)fallpredomi- risk.Inbothrichandpoornations, rather thanstorm rather thantheprivatesector, tendtoinsureflood as were75%oftheeconomiclossesand87%insuredlosses. period 1985-1999(MunichRe1999),85%wereweather-related, 3. Of8,820naturalcatastrophesanalyzedworldwideduringthe such asimpactsonnationalGDParenotincluded. expenses fordisplacedhouseholds.Morelooselyrelateddamages relocation damages suchasbusinessinterruptionsortemporary The economiclossdatacanalsoincludeindirectorothersecondary direct consequenceofthenaturalphenomenoncausingadisaster. ished goodsorrawmaterialsthatoccursimultaneouslyasa orcrops),capital,andinventoriesoffinishedsemifin- property by directdamages,definedasdamagetofixedassets(including 2. PerMunichRe'sdefinition,totaleconomiclossesaredominated result inoverUS$25millioninsuredlosses. intheUnited Statesonlycountseventsthat ClaimsService Property but doesnotinfactfullycaptureallsuchevents.Forexample,the 1. Thisincludes"large"and"small"events,asdefinedbyinsurers, ssistance is required. is ssistance r when r vels. Part1.qxd 9/27/0612:43PMPage23 ability to further extremeseveninthewealthiestnations. ability tofurther capacities arestretchedthin,creatingincreasingvulner- extremes growshorter, thecopingandrecovery 2005; Webster timesfor etal.2005).Asthereturn 2004;Egan2005;MillsEmanuel McCarthy 2001; KalksteinandGreene1997;Epstein and intensityofweatherextremes(Vellinga etal. in coastalsettlementsandtheincreasingfrequency nation ofinflation,risingrealestatevalues,thegrowth cific events?Theconsequencesareduetothecombi- role ofclimatefromotherfactorswhenlookingatspe- climate changeonfuturelosses?Canweteaseoutthe data anddrawconclusionsaboutthelikelyimpactof events morefrequent,canwelookbackonhistorical (CRE With weather-relatedlossesontheriseandextreme Disasters of Epidemiology the in Research for Center / OFDA Sources: disasters. natural of composition changing and Growth Figure 1.6TheFrequencyofWeather-Related Disasters "Natural.xls" Intl database of Disasters http://www.em-dat.net and US Census Bureau's International Database International Bureau's Census US and http://www.em-dat.net Disasters of database Intl "Natural.xls" (http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbagg.html). From analysis completed by Padco's Climate Change Solutions Group for USAID's Glob USAID's for Group Solutions Change Climate Padco's by completed analysis From (http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbagg.html). Climate Change Team. Team. Change Climate Number ofEvents Drought Epidemic Extreme temp Famine Flood Insect infestation Slide Wave/surge Wild fire Wind storm 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 200 400 600 800 0 905 906 907 908 1990-2001 1980-89 1970-79 1960-69 1950-59 0101026489 114 300 276 63 207 170 34 121 110 15 121 50 11 59 21017195 70 13 177 54 19 43 120 25 9 6 52 11 10 1 0 3144863170 4 4 02411450 2523120 100 200 300 400 500 0 1 900 19201940 1900-2000 Natural disastersreported 196019802000 values oroveralleconomic growth. rapidly thandidpopulation,housing (Easterling etal.2000)—more 1950s andthe1990sinUS million grewsignificantlybetweenthe with damagesexceedingUS$5 rapidly.particularly Individual storms Some typesoflosseshavegrown fatalities andtotaleconomiclosses. upward trendinthenumberofevents, Global dataforfloodsshowan D) al

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24 | THE CLIMATE CONTEXT TODAY increasing intandemwithmorevariabilityweather. been rising,thevariabilityoflosseshasalso In addition,whiletheabsolutemagnitudeoflosseshas Re 2005). ble tothelossfromasignificanthurricane(American isaboutUS$6billionintheUS,compara- derstorms andthun- age annualinsuredlossfromwinterstorms lion ininsuredlosses(AmericanRe2005).Theaver- USin2004resulted in US$0.725bil- northeastern example, amonthofextremelycoldweatherinthe comes fromsmallerevents(Mills2005).Inonerecent catastrophes, themajority(60%)ofeconomiclosses While attentionnaturallyfocusesonheadline-grabbing that werebarelyaccountedfor. numerous areasofdrought,flashfloodsandwildfires In thesummerof2005,forexample,therewere melt. subsidence orpermafrost smaller, oftenuncountedlossesincludethosefromsoil tured inthestatistics. these statistics.Similarly, weather-relatedvehicularlossesare typicallynotcap- structural damagesfromlandsubsidence wouldalsorarelybecapturedin lossesdueto (Kunkel etal.1999).Althoughlargeinaggregate, highlydiffuse the statisticsfor26-yearperiodof1949-1974, andfewwerethereafter $25 millionormorethereafter. wereincludedin Asaresult,nowinterstorms only thoselossesofUS$5millionormoreupuntil1996and tabulated ClaimServices Property 5. Forexample,theinsuranceindustry's (seefigure3.6) Inspection Service SteamBoilerInsuranceand byRichardJones,Hartford 4. Datafurnished given threshold.Forexample,poweroutagesinthe exclude fromtabulationthoseeventsfallingbelowa Statistical bodiescommonlycreatedefinitionsthat example: systematically underestimatestheactualcosts.For The magnitudeoflossespresentedinpublisheddata UNDERESTIMATED LOSSES ARESYSTEMATICALLY elevated temperatures anotableincreaseinlossesduringperiodsof observe are evidentinmanyaspectsofthedata.Insurers Climate signalsinrisingcostsfrom“natural”disasters atically ignoresrelativelysmallevents. losses areunderestimates,sincerecord-keepingsystem- ing theeconomicimpactofclimateextremes.Thetotal of losses,pointtoaninherentbiastowardunderreport- Other factors,notcapturedbyanoverallexamination 1994a,b; ReeveandToumi 1999)(seefigure3.6). (PriceandRind1993, to risewithwarming) 4 and lightningstrikes(predicted 5 For example, changing climate. necessarily reflecttheincreased coststosocietyofa onlosses.Allthismeansthatthedatadonot effect deductibles andlowerlimits, alsohaveadampening as insurerwithdrawalfromriskyareas,higher haveoccurred.Financialfactors,such might otherwise lossesthat cloud seedingandfiresuppressionalloffset systems, riverchannelization, codes, earlywarning actual upwardpressureoncosts.Improvedbuilding ofthe factorsalsomaskpart Other countervailing hurricanes in2004(Khanduri2004). improved buildingcodeshelpedreducethelossesof that representativesreported etc.). Insuranceindustry sion technology, cloudseeding,lightningprotection, struction practicesandcodes,improvedfiresuppres- weather events(floodpreparedness,changesincon- ter preparednessoradaptationtotheriseinextreme These dataalso,ofcourse,excludethecostsfordisas- and Rollins2005). byconsumers(Musulin 2004 hurricaneswereborne example, inFlorida,15 to20%ofthelossesfrom ofsuchchangesissubstantial:for tion. Theeffect the totallossratherthantraditionallyfixedformula- cane deductibleshavemovedtowardapercentageof Washington, DC(Green2005a,b). Moreover, hurri- ty deductiblenowinuse18USstatesplus “wind” deductibles,inadditiontothestandardproper- Following HurricaneAndrew, insurersinstitutedspecial insurance payoutsthanhadtherulesbeenunchanged. deductibles anddecreasinglimits,resultinginlower there hasbeenatrendtowardbothincreasing rable withpastdata.Forinstance,inrecentyears, The publisheddataarenotnecessarilydirectlycompa- temperaturesandsevereweather.of warming resulting fromthehealthandecologicalconsequences travel andtourism,potentialmarketinstability tabulated), businessinterruptions,restrictionsontrade, andrarely of life,andhealthcosts(whicharediffuse lossesandlargelyexcludetheloss ures reflectproperty US $25millionthereafter. Thepublishedinsurancefig- event costthresholdofUS$5millionupto1996,and included inUSinsurancestatisticsduetotheminimum 2001). Yet, suchsmall-scaleeventsarerarelyifever human infrastructurefromsoilsubsidence(Nelsonetal. result inbillionsofdollarslosses,asdodamagesto markets (seefigure1.8).Lightningstrikescollectively bygriddisturbancesinthebulkpower tomers affected and weather-relatedeventsaccountfor60%ofthecus- US $80billionperyear(LaCommareandEto2004), United Statesaloneareestimatedtoresultinacostof Part1.qxd 9/27/0612:43PMPage25 Analysis of historical "Grid Disturbance" data from the North American Electric Reliability Council (http://www.nerc.com/~filez Council Reliability Electric American North the from data Disturbance" "Grid historical of Analysis insured Figure 1.8GridFailuresFromWeatherGlobal and OtherCauses:1992-2002 (d). impacts economic and (c) losses insured of variability (b), share insured (a), events of numbers in Trends Figure 1.7Trends inEvents,LossesandVariability: 1980-2004 disturbancereports.html). Data include disturbances that occur on the bulk electric systems in North America, including electri including America, North in systems electric bulk the on occur that disturbances include Data disturbancereports.html). population premiums, than faster rising are respectively) 2004, in billion $107 US and billion $45 (US losses property related interruptions, voltage reductions, acts of sabotage, unusual occurrences that can affect the reliability of the bulk electric s electric bulk the of reliability the affect can that occurrences unusual sabotage, of acts reductions, voltage interruptions, growth. Non-inflation-adjusted economic data are shown in relation to GDP. Data exclude health/life premiums and losses. Source losses. and premiums health/life exclude Data GDP. to relation in shown are data economic Non-inflation-adjusted growth. problems. NOTE: The vast majority of outages (80-90%) occur in the local distribution network and are not tabulated here. The s The here. tabulated not are and network distribution local the in occur (80-90%) outages of majority vast The NOTE: problems. hazard statistics and losses from Munich Re, NatCatSERVICE, Premiums from Swiss Re, sigma as analyzed by Mills (2005). Mills by analyzed as sigma Re, Swiss from Premiums NatCatSERVICE, Re, Munich from losses and statistics hazard is 101% owing to rounding. to owing 101% is 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 50 0 0 9018 9819 9620 2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 1984 1980 b. InsuredShareofTotal Losses(byHazard) a. NumberofEvents Non-WR (mean=9%) Other (mean=10%) Flood (mean=7%) Storm (mean=44%) Non-weather-related Other weather-related Flood Storm Non-weather-related 38% Wildfire 3% Temperature extremes 1% Undefined weather Ice/snow 19% 2% 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 500 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 0 5 9018 9819 9620 2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 1984 1980 d. LossCostsandSocioeconomicDriversIndex:1980=100 [absolute valueofregressionresidual,$billion(2004)] c. Variability ofWeather-related EconomicLosses population GDP property insurancepremiums(nom$) total non-weather-relatedlosses(nom$) insured weather-relatedlosses(nom$) total weather-relatedlosses(nom$) linear regression Windstorm of residuals Thunderstorm/lightni 26% 12% ng ystems, and fuel and ystems, and total weather- total and c service c /dawg- or economic or um of numbers of um s: Natural s:

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26 | THE CLIMATE CONTEXT TODAY states. Mostindustriesnaturally basetheirprojections cult timeincorporatingstep-wise changestonew of howdynamicsystemsbehave. Modelshaveadiffi- of climatemodelsthatrepresentourbestunderstanding gradual, incrementalchangemayreflecttheconstraints and geologicalrecords(NAS2002),thebiastoward throughoutice,pollen,fossil enon andisobserved Though abruptclimatechangeisaubiquitousphenom- until theyreachacriticalweightandbreakthem. ofwindshields example, hailstonestendtobounceoff it boils.Damagefunctionsarealsonon-linear. For hard, latticedstructureasitfreezesorvaporizes,when intoa change, liquidwatercansuddenlytransform ofourdailyexperience.Whentemperatures are part On amoreimmediatetimescale,non-linearchanges communities oforganisms. new environmentalproblemsthatfittogetherinto the explosionofnewspecieswithsolutionsto extinctions. These“interruptions”arethenfollowedby with gradualchange,punctuatedbyperiodsofmass ed equilibrium”depictslongperiodsofrelativestability Steven J.Gould’s conceptionofevolutionas“punctuat- not theexception. 1990s. Innature,however, suddenshiftsaretherule, ical notionwhenitfirstbegantotakeholdintheearly “dial” modelforclimatechange—seemedlikearad- what RichardAlleycallsthe“switch”ratherthan from statetostate,ratherthanchangegradually— The notionthatclimatemightchangesuddenly, orshift itself. of suddenchangeinimpactsorabruptshiftsclimate occurring andfewaddressthepotentialconsequences high degreeofvarianceinweatherthatisalready Butmostdonotreflectthe ance inweatherpatterns. variability, andothershavebeguntoexaminevari- increasing temperatures.Someincludetemperature ments todatearebasedongradualprojectionsof assess- Most envisionedclimatefuturesofinternational rate atwhichclimatemightchange. projectionsdrasticallyunderestimatethe ance industry of climatechangeisthatmostfuturesandinsur- of estimatingthefuturehealthandeconomicimpacts Perhaps themostdauntingfactorcomplicatingtask OCCUR ABRUPTLY CLIMATE CHANGECAN • Small sectionsofGreenland,theWest Antarctic Ice GEOGRAPHIC IMPACTS POSSIBLE “CLIMATE SHOCKS”WITHLIMITED TIPPING POINTS (NAS 2002). 2004)orinevitable likely (EpsteinandMcCarthy just severalyearsagonowseemtosomeincreasingly impact” eventsthatwereconsidered“lowprobability” NAS 2002;Alleyetal.2003).Manysuch“high (Severinghausetal.1998; global transformations restricted ingeographicscope.Atothertimesthereare etal.2004b).Suddenshiftsaresometimes (Steffan 5-10°C (9-18°F)inthespanofadecadeorless periodscaninvolvechangesfrom interglacial warm For theclimate,transitionsbetweenglacialand impact, forexample,thensuddenlybecomeepidemics. surpass them.Diseaseoutbreakscanslowlygrowin (often unforeseen)thresholdsor“tippingpoints”—and in statecanbetriggeredbysmallforcesthatapproach thatchanges Even morechallengingistheobservation 2004). sudden change(EpsteinandMcCarthy signs ofinstabilityandsuggestgreaterpropensityfor increasing ratesofchangeandgreatervolatilityare predict theprobabilitiesofsuchevents.Forclimate, sudden, extremelosses.However, thesemodelsdonot toprojecttheimpactsof sidered “catastrophetheory” haslongcon- jectories, thoughtheinsuranceindustry on linearextrapolationsofpasttrendsandcurrenttra- • Alpine glacialmeltingcouldaccelerate,inundating feet overyearstoseveraldecades. into theocean,raisingsealevelsseveralinchesto Sheet (WAIS) ortheAntarcticPeninsulacouldslip for nationsdependentonthis sourceforfreshwater. communities belowanddiminishing watersupplies o Meltwaterisseepingdownthroughcrevassesin o Recentlossoffloatingiceshelvesalongthe o “Riversofice”intheWAIS areaccelerating (Krabill etal.1999;ACIA2005). Greenland, lubricatingthebaseoflargeglaciers land-based icesheets(RignotandThomas2002). Antarctic Peninsularemovesbackpressurefromthe 2001; Payneetal.2004;Thomas2004). Ocean (Shepherdetal. toward theSouthern Part1.qxd 9/27/0612:43PMPage27 • Thawing of permafrost (permanently frozenland) • (permanently Thawing ofpermafrost • There maybeathresholdlevelor“tippingpoint”for Atlantic(icemeltingandrain ChangesintheNorth • ReleaseofmethanefromthawingArcticandboreal • ofGreenlandorthe • Slippage ofalargeportion CANDIDATES FORABRUPTCLIMATE CHANGE and contribute to further global warming. globalwarming. and contributetofurther could increaseatmosphericconcentrationsofmethane Earth’s totalreflectivity(albedo). Middle East(NAS2002;ACIA2005). Hemisphere andthe alters climateintheNorthern ocean conveyorbelt,triggeringa“coldreversal”that falling) couldshutdowntheGulfStreamand state(Stokstad2004). much warmer couldsuddenlyforcetheclimateintoa permafrost coastal settlementsthroughouttheworld. WAIS wouldraisesealevelsmanyfeet,inundating o Methane, while shorter livedthanCO o Methane,whileshorter o TheEarth’s overallalbedoisnowabout30%.If o Theglobalimpactsofsuchashutdownmightbe o Western anaverageof3°C Siberiahaswarmed o Theworld’s largestfrozenpeatbog—aper- o LossofallGreenlandortheWAIS (unlikelyto Cook etal.2005). (Rignot andThomas2002;Rignot etal.2004; ing,” withacceleratedheating ofEarth’s surface. oceans couldpotentiallytrigger a“runawaywarm- 28%, forinstance,theincreasedheatentering enough icemeltsandEarth’s albedodecreasesto tempered byoverallglobalwarming. (Pearce 2005). all themethanestoredonearth’s landsurface of tains some70billiontonsofmethane,aquarter ThewestSiberianbogcon- where elseonEarth. (5.4°F) inthelast40years,fasterthanalmostany- tundra isalsothawing. of thelasticeage(Pearce2005).TheAlaskan 11,000yearsagoattheend time sinceforming Siberia—hasbeguntomeltforthefirst western combined, spanningtheentiresub-Arcticregionof mafrost regionthesizeofFranceandGermany 7 meters(21feet). occur forcenturies)wouldeachraisesealevels asagreenhousegas. times morepowerful 2 , is21 lead todoublingofCO ness-as-usual,” ascenariowhich,ifunabated,would weather extremes.Bothscenariosarebasedon“busi- withgrowingvariabilityandmore gradual warming weather. Bothscenariosenvisionaclimatecontextof to proceedgradually, butwithgrowingvariancein change, thisstudyconsidersthepotentialforwarming In ordertoenvisionthefutureimpactsofclimate FUTURES SCENARIOS THE CLIMATE CHANGE could slowtherateof house gasemissionstostabilizetheconcentrations unlikely tobesuccessful.Substantiallyreducinggreen- biological systemsorabruptchangeinclimateare underestimate thepotentialforexponentialchangein Management, adaptationandmitigationstrategiesthat accelerated changeallthemoreuncertain. changes tooccurmakestheoutcomesandimpactsof 2002), thepotentialformultiple,linkedabrupt step-wise changesintheclimatesystem(Schellnhuber of methane.Asmodelersgrapplewiththepotentialfor for example,couldbeaccompaniedbylargereleases could occurconcurrently. Significantdischargesofice, occurring inisolation.Severalofthechangesdepicted points” areallpresenttoday—andtheynot The instabilitiesunderlyingthepotential“tipping forces thereaderto“thinkunthinkable.” and Randall2003)onabruptclimatechange,which er mayrefertothe“PentagonScenario”(Schwartz Regarding theworst-casescenario,interestedread- unmanageable. of thesecondwouldbedevastatingandmostlikely for theglobaleconomy, whilethewidespreadimpacts above. Thefirstscenarioimpliesgraveconsequences types ofclimateshocksorabruptchangesdepicted about thepotentialimpactsofclimatechange,not abrupt impacts.Notethatthesetwoscenariosare second scenarioenvisionsafuturewithwidespread, dimensions ofhealthandenvironmentalimpacts.The impacts, andthisassessmentexaminestheeconomic es ofimpacts.Thefirstscenariocallsforescalating providebackgroundonthevariousclass- of thisreport midcentury. II ExtensivecasestudiesdescribedinPart system thechancetoreachanewequilibrium. climate changeand 2 from pre-industrialvaluesby give the

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28 | THE CLIMATE CONTEXT TODAY cal smogandhigherconcentrationsofCO umes ofdustsweptvastdistances,morephotochemi- disease.Increasedvol- ness andmorevector-borne giverisetoelevatedratesofheat-relatedill- patterns extremesandshiftingweather In thisscenario,thermal ty, durationandgeographicextent. ofintensi- interms the upperrangesofhistoricalnorms, nario envisionsthemajorityofeventsunfoldingnear bance ofecologicalprocesses.Ingeneral,thissce- an expandingroleinthespreadofdiseaseanddistur- more variable,weatherextremesareprojectedtoplay projections fromcurrenttrends.Asclimatebecomes change. MostoftheoutcomesenvisionedinCCF-Iare in associationwithgradualanthropogenicclimate tions, eventsandimpactsthathavebeguntoappear This baselinescenarioexploresanensembleofcondi- ESCALATING IMPACTS WITH INCREASINGVARIABILITY: CCF-I: GRADUALWARMING ing watersystemsbecomecompromised morefre- experience moremoisture-related damageanddrink- coupled withrisingsealevels, wouldmeanstructures aries offloodplainscouldexpandandmoreflooding, rivers.Thebound- cipitation eventsandoverflowing would resultfromanincreasednumberofheavypre- surgesincoastal areas,whileothers result ofstorm the futureenvisagedinCCF-I.Somewouldbe Floods wouldbemorefrequentandsevereaswellin measures. pollution-abatement with noxiousairmassesoverwhelm inthepubliceyeas theextremeheatcoupled burner severely. tothefront Airqualityissueswouldreturn thus electricpowergrid-capacity, wouldbestretched become moreroutineandcostly, andair-conditioning, waves. Lostproductivityduringhotmonthswould CCF-I wouldinvolvemorefrequentandintenseheat delivered byahealthyenvironment. and thepublichealthbenefits(Cifuentesetal.2001) Earth’s undermine would further systems life-support greaterextremesandpestinfestations from warming, the associatedriseininsurancecosts.Ecologicalstress ical resourcesdevotedtotheemergingproblemsand ed lifeyears(DALYs) lost,orbytheincrementalmed- measured bymorbidityandmortality, disabilityadjust- ment ofpublichealthasaresulttheseills,whether dren intheUS.CCF-Ienvisionsaperceptibleimpair- oneinsixhighschoolchil- ma, whichalreadyafflicts aeroallergens (pollenandmold)driveupratesofasth- 2 -linked trends that weaken returns andprofitability.trends thatweakenreturns andinvestors wouldface ance industry Insum,theinsur- andinvestmentportfolios. services financial of investment”insomeregionsandaffect industry. Epidemicsandextremesimpairthe“climate development forthelife/healthbranchofinsurance oninsuredlives,anew have amorenoticeableeffect mounts. Climateimpactsbeginto which publicalarm with newregulationsinachangedpoliticalclimate ters ofgreenhousegasesandfromnon-compliance tion (andassociatedinsurancepayouts),bothasemit- Corporations facemoreenvironmentallyrelatedlitiga- areariskthathasemerged. climate-change effects Inthisscenario, thestrongestfirms. and evenaffects stress onthesolvencyofsomeinsurancecompanies becomesmoreproblematic.Thisplaces underwriting and increase, asmoredevelopedareasareaffected, the 21st. Theinsuredshareoftheselosseswould andthebeginningof through thelatter20thcentury interruptions wouldcontinuetoriseatratesobserved industry, lossesandbusiness weather-relatedproperty quences oflosingessentialhabitat.Fortheinsurance tration ofthepotentialecologicalandeconomicconse- asagrimillus- 60% ofreefsarethreatened—serves tial fateofcoralaroundtheglobe—whenalready and asasourceofincomethroughtourism.Thepoten- surges,asnurseries formanyfish, fromstorm a buffer as provides multipleandsomeirreplaceableservices: accelerate inCCF-I.ThisoldestofEarth’s ecosystems Coral bleachinganddiseasesofcoralreefswould ease regionally. forested areaswouldincr age. Thehumanlossesassociatedwithfirefightingin dam- causing deaths,injuriesandextensiveproperty to droughtandpestswouldleadmorewildfires, essentialfunctions.Lossofforestedtracts that perform surge offorestpestsandeliminate“keystone”species gradual climatechange,however, canproducea foresthealth(Daszaketal.2000).Even to preserving Maintaining biodiversityofplantsandanimalsiskey humans. diseases mayalsoincrease,andsomejumpto being producedatahighercost.Animalandlivestock crops,withlessfoodoflowerquality important harm nutrition. CCF-Ienvisionssteadyincreasesinpeststhat extreme eventsthathamperfoodproductionaffect humanhealth.Agriculturaldiseasesand rectly affect The impactsonnaturalsystemscandirectlyandindi- water-related diseases. quently. from Largenumbersofpeoplewouldsuffer ease, as would respiratory disease, aswouldrespiratory accelerating Part1.qxd 9/27/06 12:43 PM Page 29

CCF-II: GRADUAL WARMING toll on productivity, tourism, trade and travel, crippling WITH INCREASING VARIABILITY: the climate of investment in “emerging markets” and the availability of insurance in some sectors. SURPRISE IMPACTS Air quality deteriorates. The combination of rising Even within the conditions of climate change underly- pollen and soil mold counts from CO2-fertilization; ing the first impact scenario — gradual warming and greater heat, humidity and particulate-filled hazes; increasing variance — there is the possibility of sud- smog and oppressive nights; respiratory irritants from den and catastrophic impacts on health, ecosystems widespread summer fires; and dust clouds transported and economies. Widespread epidemics, explosive from expanding deserts exacerbates upper and lower crop and forest infestations, and coral reef collapse airway disease and cardiovascular conditions (Griffen could severely damage the social fabric. et al. 2001).

Note again: This is not a scenario of abrupt change in The changing climate alters the prevalence and the physical climate system; it is a scenario of surprises spatial extent of crop pests and diseases around the and widespread impacts due to growing instability in globe. Populations of insect herbivores like locust climate. The effects of “climate shocks” and potential explode in some regions — as they did in northern triggers for abrupt climate change outlined above Africa and southern Europe in the summer of 2004 — extend far beyond these impact scenarios, and the greatly decreasing crop yields. Increased CO2 con- implications of such major transformations in the global tributes to more vigorous weed growth and the world- climate system are too vast as to be considered in wide crop losses today attributed to pests, pathogens monetary terms. and weeds increases from the current 42% (Altaman 1993; Pimentel and Bashore 1998) to over 50% of In this scenario of non-linear impacts, disruptions would potential yields. Crop damage from drought, storms, be greater and the economic costs of natural catastro- floods and extreme heat episodes compound the dis- phes would rise abruptly. Recurrent devastating storms ease-related losses. Yields are decimated in some would render current adaptation methods less effective regions, leading to widespread famine, debilitating and more costly. With non-linear impacts appearing in epidemics and political instability. many regions simultaneously, the ability of business, governments and international organizations to Looming in such a scenario is the potential for a rapid, respond would become critically taxed. This scenario

widespread climate- and disease-induced dieback of CONTEXT TODAY THE CLIMATE

would be more challenging for insurers and other risk forests. The combination of multi-year droughts; warm, | managers due to increasing uncertainty.

dry winters leaving little mountain snowpack; and an 29 explosion of pests, such as bark beetles, leaf miners, Extreme heat catastrophes become more common and opportunistic fungi and aphids affecting weakened widespread in CCF-II. Events on a par with that seen trees, would create vast dead stands that provide fuel in Europe in the summer of 2003 affect many parts of for wide-scale fires. Such massive losses of forest cover the globe. Temperature records are broken in numer- and transformations of terrestrial habitat would send ous megacities as they are subjected to oppressive reverberations through nature and human society, and unhealthy air masses. Heat-related morbidity and affecting birds and other wildlife, lumber and water mortality rise from 200% to 500% above long-term quality and availability. As a final insult, widespread averages. The potential decrease in winter illnesses is fires in these increasingly flammable forests would negated by increasing variability of temperatures release large carbon pulses, adding to global warm- (Braga et al. 2001) and more sudden cold spells, plus ing and altering forest soils that provide an essential rain, snow and ice storms. Winter travel and ambula- “sink” for storing carbon. tion become extremely hazardous during some years (EPA 2001). Finally, coral reefs weaken (physically and biological- ly). Surface ocean warming and disease compound The increase in epidemics of infectious diseases, the stress on the reefs already generated by overfish- especially following disasters, strain existing health ing, and by human and industrial waste. Most of the care and public health infrastructure, halting or revers- globe’s tropical ring of reefs collapses, while sea level ing economic growth in some underdeveloped rise and higher storm and tidal surges inundate coastal nations. More frequent disease outbreaks also take a Part1.qxd 9/27/0612:43PMPage30

30 | THE CLIMATE CONTEXT TODAY these twopotentialfutures. conditions andextremeweathereventsunderpinning delvesintocasestudiesofhealth IIofthisreport Part toabsorbthecosts. find itincreasinglydifficult ance systemsattempttofillthevoid,butmanynations longer available,alreadybeleagueredpublicinsur- 2005). Incaseswherecommercialinsuranceisno (Millsetal. losses backtoindividualsorgovernments tain eventsuninsurableandthusshiftingashareofthe deemingcer- adopting adequatelosslimits,effectively ing deductiblescommensuratewiththelossesand rais- Meanwhile, insurancecompanieshavedifficulty conflict. lence, suchascivilorcross-boundary assets orlossesresultingfrompoliticallymotivatedvio- that insureagainstexpropriationornationalizationof instability alsotriggers“politicalrisk”insurancesystems great stressonthenationsreceivingexodus.Social change impactsdisplacelargepopulations,putting In thelargelyuninsureddevelopingworld,climate oneconomicactivity.effect rier habitat.Contractionbyinsurershasadampening and shoresvulnerabletosealevelriselossofbar- coastlines ments inavarietyofmarkets,particularly ance business.Asaresult,insurerswithdrawfromseg- rent lossesbecomevisibleinmanylinesoftheinsur- ofsuchmassiveandconcur- The compoundingeffects health andhabitability. agriculture,human inhabitable islands),whichaffects freshwater lenses(thepocketoffreshwaterunderlying communities, salinizinggroundwaterandunder-island Part2a.qxd 9/27/06 12:51 PM Page 31

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CASE STUDIES 32 | INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY DISEASES Plasmodium falciparum Plasmodium dren diefrommalariaeachday(WHO2003). 75% ofcasesoccurinchildren,andover3,000chil- Pacific andtheAmericas(Snowetal.2005).Upto remainder occurringinSoutheastAsia,thewestern and roughly75%ofcasesoccurinAfrica,withthe world’s populationisatriskofcontractingmalaria, andlostproductivity.mortality Some40%ofthe ofmorbidity,globally andranksnumberoneinterms disease Malaria isthemostdisablingvector-borne BACKGROUND Ulisses E.C.Confalonieri Avaleigh Milne Nathan Chan Kristie L.Ebi MALARIA RESPIRATORY DISEASES INFECTIOUS AND preventionPrimary foralltheillnessesandevents addressed includemeasures theclimate. tostabilize economic dimensions,scenarioprojections andspecificrecommendations toreduce vulnerabilities. and water). The casesare according organized tobackground, therole ofclimate,healthandecologicalimpacts, a heatwave andflood)orfrom theviewofnaturalandmanagedEarth systems(agriculture, forests, marine perspective malariaandasthma),ameteorological ofadiseaseorcondition(forexample, event (forexample, dimensions ofdiseaseswhoserangeandprevalence are affectedbyclimate. The studiesare approached from the ofdiseaseandthequalityourair,patterns foodandwater. The following casestudiesintegratethe multiple Health isthefinalcommonpathwayofnaturalsystemswe are of,andclimateinstabilityisalteringthe part studies serve as examples of how warming andweather asexamples ofhowwarming studies serve range ofmalariainthehighlands ofZimbabwe.These thepotential affecting altered precipitationpatterns and Brazil, andtheprojectedimpactsofwarming impacts ofdroughtonmalariadistributioninnortheast of floodingonmalariainMozambique,theindirect The threefacetsofthiscasestudyexaminetheimpacts world iscurrentlyexperiencinganupsurgeinmalaria. trol programs,provedthisoptimisticviewwrongandthe pesticide resistance,andthesubsequentfailureofcon- that malariacouldbeeradicated,widespreaddrugand ledtotheoptimisticview first halfofthe20thcentury advances inantimalarialdrugsandinsecticidesthe and isresponsibleforthemajorityofdeaths.While is oneoffourtypesmalaria toes. At20°C(68°F),forexample, maturation ofthemalarialparasitesinsidemosqui- inject theparasite.Warmer temperaturesspeedupthe bate theparasite,thenbiteanuninfectedpersonand take abloodmealfromsomeonewithmalaria,incu- For malariatransmissiontooccur, amosquitomust ens thematurationofmicrobeswithinmosquitoes. reproductive rates,prolongsbreedingseasonsandshort- mosquito (toomuchheatkillsthem),boostsbitingand large outbreaks.Warming, withintheviablerangeof floods (andsometimesdroughts)providetheconditionsfor Climate constrainstherangeofmalariatransmissionwhile THE ROLE OFCLIMATE malaria’s currentdistribution. may occurintemperateregionsatthemarginsof disease,and,byextrapolation,howchanges borne ence theprevalenceanddynamicsofatropicalvector- extremes canworkaloneandincombinationtoinflu- in thespreadofmalaria(McMichael etal.2002). and weatherextremesarelikely toplayexpandingroles Mutabingwa 2002).But,asclimate changes,warming countries (GithekoandNdegwa 2001;Greenwoodand public healthinfrastructurehasdeterioratedinmany tion, drugandpesticideresistancealsocontribute the distributionofmalaria.Populationmigrations,deforesta- Climate changeiscompoundingotherchangesinfluencing human populationsinto(oroutof)malariousareas. via anothermechanism:encouragingthemigrationof eggs away).Droughtscanleadtoupsurgesofmalaria washingmosquito sometimes havetheoppositeeffect, roadways andinreceptacles(thoughfloodingcan Heavy rainscreatemosquitobreedingsitesalong altitudes andincreasinglyinhighlandareasAfrica. Malaria iscirculatingamongpopulationslivingatlow ously uninfected. time forthemosquitotopassitonsomeoneprevi- parasitestomaturein temperaturespermit warmer can transmitmalarialiveonlyseveralweeks.Thus 1972).Anophelinemosquitoesthat time (McArthur but, at25°C(77°F),theparasitesdevelopinhalf parum malarial protozoatake26daystoincubate; Plasmodium falci- Plasmodium Part2a.qxd 9/27/0612:51PMPage33 and tuberculosis). transmitted “person-to-person” (forexample,diphtheria health programsunderliethereboundofmostdiseases anddeterioratingpublic al. 2003).Persistentpoverty animals andplantshascontinuedunabated(Epsteinet new andresurgentinfectionsappearinginhumans, Sincethe late1990s,thepaceof siderable concern. virus) andtheemergenceofnewdiseasesarecon- cholera, theredistributionofstillothers(likeWest Nile The resurgenceofolddiseases,suchasmalariaand communities oforganismsareestablished. speciescanflourishuntilnew extinctions, opportunistic reduced by90%sincethe1850s.Followingmass with extinctionandtheworld’s fishstockshavebeen of conifersand32%amphibiansarethreatened 2005). Today 12% ofbirds,23%mammals,25% arebeingusedunsustainably(Mooneyetal. services (2005) foundthat60%ofecosystemresourcesand 2002) andtheMillenniumEcosystemAssessment ing wastesatarapidpace(Wackernagel etal. profound: weareusingEarth’s resourcesandgenerat- organisms. Backgroundecologicalchangestodayare incontrollingtheproliferation ofopportunistic perform an insidiousrolebecauseofthelossfunctionsthey (LoGiudice etal.2003).Speciesextinctionsmayplay may “dilute”themanddecreasetransmission while competitorsthatarepoorcarriersofpathogens vent themfrombecomingpests(Epsteinetal.1997), 1992). Predatorsareneededtocontrolpreyandpre- of diseasesandtheresurgenceoldscourges(IOM Ecological instabilitiesplaykeyrolesintheemergence organisms. over opportunistic variability candestabilizenaturalbiologicalcontrols Changes inthetimingofseasonsandgreaterweather epidemics spanningmultiplecontinents(Epstein1992). tal transitionhavebeenaccompaniedbywavesof straints. Historically, periodsofsocialandenvironmen- reflecting environmentalconditionsandresourcecon- their numbersexponentially;populationlevels Microbes andotherlivingorganismstendtoincrease DISEASES INFECTIOUS AND EMERGING CLIMATE CHANGE altered climate(Epstein2005). — reflectchangingecologicalbalancesandan —mosquitoes,ticks,deer,reservoirs birdsandrodents tion ofinfectionsinvolvinganimalvectors,hostsand resistant organisms.Buttheresurgenceandredistribu- tavirus; alongwitharashofrapidlyevolvingantibiotic- In highland regions in Africa, Central and South America, and Asia and America, South and Central Africa, in regions highland In Figure 2.1 regions, likethoseofPapuaNewGuinea. urban centers,suchasNairobi,andruralhighland America andAsia.Malariaiscirculatinginhighland at highelevationsinEastandCentralAfrica,Latin diseases arebeingreported insects andinsect-borne exquisitely sensitivetotemperaturechanges.Today, The geographicdistributionandactivityofinsectsare on HighlandRegions Range Changes:Focus disease, Legionnaires’,toxic “new” tomedicine,includingHIV/AIDS,Ebola,Lyme theemergenceofover30diseases (1996) reports From 1976to1996,theWorld HealthOrganization Colombian Andes(Epsteinet al.1998). elevation inMexicoand2,200m(7,260ft)the decades ithasbeenfoundat1,700m (5,610ft) 1,000m (3,300ft)inelevation.Inthepastthree fever, hasbeenlimited bytemperaturetoabout plant communities are migrating upward, glaciers are retreating and retreating are glaciers upward, migrating are communities plant aegypti, DENGUE FEVER mosquitoes are being found at high elevations. Underlying these Underlying elevations. high at found being are mosquitoes changes are higher temperatures (an upward shift of the freezing the of shift upward (an temperatures higher are changes isotherm) and thawing of permafrost (permanently frozen ground). ground). frozen (permanently permafrost of thawing and isotherm) Image: Bryan Christie/Scientific American August 2000 August American Christie/Scientific Bryan Image: altitudes many plantstolow borne diseasesand mosquitoes, mosquito- elevations andlimited caused freezingathigh Cold temperatures BEFORE1970 OR MALARIA PLANTS the mosquitocarrierofdengueandyellow

MOSQUITOES MONTANE REGIONS E. coli E. and anewhan- to shrinkinthetropicsand have migratedupward caused mountainglaciers diseases andplants Some mosquitoes, Increased warmthhas mosquito-borne temperate zones Aedes TODAY

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CASE STUDIES 34 | INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY DISEASES Thompson 1997;Irion2001). New Zealand(Thompsonetal.1993;Mosley- Alps, Kenya,theHimalayas,Indonesia,IrianJayaand Argentina, Peru,Alaska,Iceland,Norway, theSwiss the acceleratingretreatofsummitglaciersin havebeenaccompaniedby ual, systemicwarming, These insectandbotanicaltrends,indicativeofgrad- Sierra NevadaandNewZealand(Paulietal.1996). higher elevationsintheEuropeanAlps,Alaska,US 1996). Exemplifyingthistrend,plantsaremigratingto (DiazandGraham to almost1°C(1.8°F)warming 160m (almost500feet)withinthetropics,equivalent frozenground)climbedapproximately permanently or (permafrost 1990 theheightoffreezingisotherm tain regionsaregettingwarmer. Between1970and allshowthatmoun- satellites andgroundthermometers Measurements drawnfromreleasedweatherballoons, Outbreaks of infectious diseases carried by mosquitoes, rodents and water often “cluster” following storms and floods. Droughts floods. and storms following “cluster” often water and rodents mosquitoes, by carried diseases infectious of Outbreaks Figure 2.2ExtremeWeather EventsandDiseaseOutbreaks:1997-1998 1999), andflushmicrobes,nutrientschemicals etal. breeding sites,fosterfungalgrowth(Dearborn pollutants,whilefloodscancreatemosquito- piratory al. 1999).Prolongeddroughtsfuelfires,releasingres- (Bouma etal.1997;CheckleyKovats itself found impactsonpublichealththanthewarming Extreme weathereventsarehavingevenmorepro- Extreme Weather Events andEpidemics water-borne diseases and disease from fires. The events above occurred in 1997-1998, during the century’s largest El Niño. El largest century’s the during 1997-1998, in occurred above events The fires. from disease and diseases water-borne Image: Bryan Christie/Scientific American August 2000 August American Christie/Scientific Bryan Image: LEGEND Rift Valley fever Encephalitis Dengue fever Malaria Cholera Respitory illnessduetofireandsmoke Hantavirus pulmonarysyndrome Abnormally dry Abnormally wet can causemeningitis,kidneydiseaseandliverfailure). bacterialdisease(leptospirosis,which and water-borne (cholera andotherdiarrheas)arodentcarried diseases (malaria anddenguefever),water-borne diseases unleashed epidemicsofmosquito-borne (Bombay), India,onJuly26,2005,theflooding 2000). WhenthreefeetofrainfellonMumbai spread malaria,typhoidandcholera(Pascualetal. hundreds, displacedhundredsofthousandsand AfricaandthefloodsinMozambiquekilled Southern of torrential rainsandacycloneinundatedlargeparts Venezuelan 2000, equineencephalitis.InFebruary lowed byoutbreaksofmalaria,denguefeverand lowing year, Venezuela asimilarfate,fol- suffered 1,000 casesofdenguefever(Epstein2000).Thefol- cases ofcholera,30,000malariaand 30,000 Hondurasreported ages. Intheaftermath, 11,000 peopleandleftoverUS$5billionindam- three days,dumpingsixfeetofrainthatkilledover stalled overCentralAmericainNovember1998for Caribbean— Mitch —nourishedbyawarmed in thewakeofextremeweatherevents.Hurricane Infectious diseasesoftencomeingroupsor“clusters” outbreaks fromorganismslike disease into baysandestuaries,causingwater-borne ium (Mackenzie etal.1994). E. coli E. and also lead to lead also cryptosporid- – P.E. Part2a.qxd 9/27/0612:51PMPage35 worldwide every yearandestimatesofannualdeaths worldwide every state that300-500millioncasesofmalariaoccur Previous estimatesfromtheWorld HealthOrganization pers. comm.2002). Venezuela andSriLanka(Y. Rubio;F. Amerasinghe, Image: Pierre Virot/WHO Pierre Image: Figure 2.3 ability. ducing anemia,periodicfeversandoftenchronicdis- ofmalaria,pro- states ofinfectionexistformostforms shaking chills,followedbyextremeweakness.Chronic Malaria ischaracterizedbyintensefever, sweatsand HEALTH IMPACTS percentage of mosquitoes carrying percentage ofmosquitoescarrying malaria areoccurringinsomenations,withagrowing Africa. Thereisevidencethatshiftsinthetypesof of malariaandisthemainparasitecirculatingin Plasmodium falciparum Plasmodium Debilitated mansufferingfrommalaria is themostlethalform P. falciparum P. in 1996) andastudyin2002suggeststhatthe Saharan Africaareduetomalaria(MurrayandLopez Approximately 11%ofallyearslifelostacrosssub- weight(Breman2001). and lowbirth distress hypoglycemia (lowbloodsugar),respiratory are included.Theseincludemalaria-relatedanemia, ofmalaria double thesefiguresiftheindirecteffects maybe WHO 2001).Thetrueimpactonmortality range fromonetothreemillion(Sachsetal.2001; 1996). women (Freeman1995;BlairResearchInstitute among childrenunderfiveandpregnant and isthemaincauseofmorbiditymortality malaria remainsthemostcommonparasiticdisease that year(Snowetal.2005).Insub-SaharanAfrica, parum parasite caused515millioncasesofmalaria falci-

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CASE STUDIES 36 | INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY DISEASES burdens ofdisease. totheirhomeregionswithheavy Amazon andreturn ed migrantsmoveintoheavily infectedareasinthe ing malaria(Confalonieri2003). Sometimesuninfect- ofhumanscarry- urban areas,bringingwithitacohort hunger hasdrivenjob-seekingmigrationfromruralto the regionimpoverished.Recurrentcropfailuresand The alteredmicroclimateandrecurrentdroughthasleft rum acrosstheAtlantictofuel“triangulartrade.” drained waterfromtheregion’s aquiferstosendas Brazil Three centuriesofsugarplantationsinnortheast DROUGHT INBRAZIL ly stablelevelsoverthreeyears(seefigure2.4). relative- lowing theflooding,comparedwithotherwise showed afour-to-fivefoldspikeinmalariacasesfol- stations —Maputo(thecapital)andXai-Xai maximum temperaturesfromtworegionalobservation demonstrated theimpacts.Dailyprecipitationand and districthospitalsbeforeduringtheflooding floods of2000,recordsfromregionalhealthposts Mozambique,theareahithardestby In southern relief andaccesstocare. Washed-out roadsandbridgesimpededemergency es andinfrastructure)ledtoamalariaepidemic. population (includingmalnutritionanddestroyedhous- quitoes, coupledwithincreasedriskfactorsamongthe flooding onrecord.Thepost-floodpropagationofmos- dreds ofthousandsweredisplacedbythearea’s worst people werekilleddirectlyfromdrowningandhun- and heavyrainsoverasix-weekperiod.Hundredsof enced adevastatingseriesofthreetropicalcyclones andMarchof2000,Mozambiqueexperi- In February FLOODING INMOZAMBIQUE Figure 2.4MalariaandFloodsinMozambique Malaria Cases 1000 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0 13253749617385971091211331451 Weeks (Jan99-Dec01) weeks (Jan99-Dec01) PROJECTIONS ZIMBABWE FOR incomes andprospectsforeconomic growth.With reduces thelifetimeincomes ofindividuals,national economicdevelopment.Malaria and long-term reduction Good populationhealthiscriticaltopoverty DIMENSIONS ECONOMIC logical responses. andthusmayunderestimatetheactualbio- observed; rapid increaseinminimumtemperaturesbeing changes inaveragetemperatures,ratherthanthemore Notably alltheseanalysesarebaseduponprojected mate limitstransmission. edges ofitsgeographicaldistributionwherecurrentcli- The futurespreadofmalariaislikelytooccuratthe results, thevariousmodelsreachsimilarconclusions: different methodsandreporting Despite usingdifferent etal.1999;RogersandRandolph2000). Martens 1998; suitable fortransmission(LindsayandMartens unsuitable areasofdensehumanpopulationbecoming could alterthetransmissionofmalaria,withpreviously shown thatchangesintemperatureandprecipitation the rangeandintensityofmalariatransmissionhave model projectionsoftheimpactsclimatechangeon rently atriskformalaria(Freeman1995).Avarietyof Roughly 45%ofthepopulationZimbabweiscur- malaria. causing asharpriseinimported totheirhomelands, drought abated,migrantsreturned region, whichhasahighrateofmalaria.Asthe Maranhão migratedtotheneighboringAmazon 1980s and1990s,manyinhabitantsofthestate During theElNiño-relatedintensifieddroughtsof 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 Malaria surged following six weeks of flooding of weeks six following surged Malaria in southern Mozambique. Mozambique. southern in Source: Avaleigh Milne Avaleigh Source: Maputo precip malaria cases maputo precip malaria cases Part2a.qxd 9/27/06 12:51 PM Page 37

Figure 2.5 Brazil

GUY COLOMBIA VEN. Paramaribo FR. GUI. Bogotá SUR. N Brazil Atlantic

Quito Negro Ocean Solimões ECU. Amazon Tocantin Amazon Basin Andes Mountains Xingu

PERU BRAZIL São Lima Francisco Pacific La Paz Brasília Ocean BOLIVIA

Sucre Feet Meters 10000 3050 PAR. Paraná 5000 1525 CHILE 2000 610 Asunción 1000 305 Andes 500 153 Mountains 0 250 500 mi Sea Level ARGENTINA 0 250 500 km Lagos dos Patos Santiago URU. © maps.com Buenos Recurrent drought in northeast Brazil has caused mass migrations into malarious areas in the Amazon. Image: maps.com

inadequate medical and economic infrastructures, dis- Although most studies of the economic burden of disease management is difficult, contributing to a vicious ease look only at the costs associated directly with an circle that hinders development. episode of illness, non-fatal illness early in life can have adverse economic consequences throughout In sub-Saharan Africa in 1999, malaria accounted for one’s life. Disease in infancy and in utero can be asso- an estimated 36 million lost Daily Adjusted Life Years ciated with lifetime infirmities. In addition, disease of

(Murray and Lopez 1996). (DALYs are the sum of one individual within the family may have important DISEASES INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY years of potential life lost due to premature mortality adverse consequences for other family members, espe- |

and the years of productive life lost due to disability.) If cially the other children. 37 each DALY is valued as equal to per capita income, the total cost of malaria would be valued at 5.8% of Malaria also poses risks to tourists and to military per- the GNP of the region. If each DALY is valued at three sonnel, can inhibit the use of arable land and access times the per capita income, the total cost would be to natural resources, and can present an impediment 17.4% of GNP. to international investment.

Just as a country’s GDP influences malaria risk, malaria The cost of improving malaria activities is great. has been shown to decrease economic growth in National expenditures on such public goods as vector severely malarious countries by 1.3 growth rate per- control, health-care delivery and infrastructure, disease centage points per year (Gallup and Sachs 2001; surveillance, public education, and basic malaria WHO 2001). The economic development necessary research are limited by a country’s GDP. According to for improvements in the public health infrastructure is the World Health Organization, only 4% of the popu- directly hindered by the presence of malaria itself. lation at risk from malaria transmission in Sub-Saharan Changes in climate have the potential to make it even Africa are currently using insecticide-impregnated bed more difficult for poor countries to reduce the burden nets and household insecticide-spraying for malaria of malaria. prevention, and only 27% of people with malaria receive treatment. Overall incremental expenditure CASE STUDIES Part2a.qxd 9/27/0612:51PMPage38

CASE STUDIES 38 | INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY DISEASES These simulations show how the regions suitable for transmission of malaria move up in altitude with changes in temperature and temperature in changes with altitude in up move malaria of transmission for suitable regions the how show simulations These Figure 2.6 Source: Springer Science and Business Media Business and Science Springer Source: 1920-1980 precipitation. Part2a.qxd 9/27/06 12:51 PM Page 39

estimates (over and above current annual health For Brazil, more intense droughts are projected for the expenditure) to reach 40% coverage for prevention Northeast region due to warming and continued defor- and 50% for treatment (projected 2007 goals) are US estation in the Amazon. This will increase migration $0.65-1.4 billion for prevention and US $0.6 billion and the transmission of malaria. to US $1.1 billion for treatment. Reaching the 2015 Millennium Development Goals of 70% prevention cov- Under CCF-I, therefore, we can anticipate an increase erage and 70% treatment would require increased in the global burden of malaria and mounting adverse annual expenditure of US $1.45-3.2 billion for preven- impacts on families, school attendance and perform- tion and US $1.4-2.5 billion for treatment activities. ance, productivity and the ‘climate’ for investment, trav- WHO’s Roll-Back Malaria and the Global Fund to el and tourism. Poor nations with low GNPs will face Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria are among the the heaviest burdens, devoting more and more of their new international programs dedicated to addressing precarious resources to combating this disease. The this resurgence. per capita losses in Disability Adjusted Life Years are projected to increase substantially. In developed Widespread drug resistance and lack of resources nations, locally transmitted outbreaks of malaria and infrastructure for prevention and treatment methods increase, necessitating increased use of pesticides, contribute to the high incidence of malaria in which carry their own long-term health threats via con- Mozambique and Zimbabwe and in many other tamination of water and food. nations. The cost of medications (US $1-3 per treatment) and bed nets (US $5) must be viewed in con- CCF-II: SURPRISE IMPACTS text, for the total government health expenditures per capita is US $6 in Mozambique and even less in Under CCF-II we project intensification of malaria many other countries. transmission throughout highland regions in Africa, Latin America and Asia, with continued transmission in THE FUTURE lowland regions. In addition, malaria could suddenly swell in developed nations, especially in those areas CCF-I: ESCALATING IMPACTS now bordering the margins of current transmission. This could present severe problems in southern regions of Projected changes include the expansion of conditions Western and Eastern Europe and in the southern US. that support the transmission of malaria in latitude and The impact measured in DALYs would be substantial if altitude and, in some regions, a longer season during malaria returns to parts of the developed world. The which malaria may circulate (Tanser et al. 2003; van strains on public health systems and on health insur- Lieshout et al. 2004). Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, and South ance would come at a time when warming and the DISEASES INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY | Africa are projected to show increases of more than intensified hydrological cycle are increasing the overall 100% in person-months of exposure later in this centu- burden of disease due to infectious agents. The 39 ry, changes that could dramatically increase the bur- increasing use of medicines for treatment and chemi- den of those suffering with malaria. cals for mosquito control would exacerbate drug and insecticide resistance, boosting the costs of the disease The potential future geographic distributions of malaria and the costs of disease control. If the current methods in Zimbabwe were calculated using 16 projections for for combating malaria lose their efficacy as a result of climate in 2100 (Ebi et al. in press). The results sug- overuse of these chemical agents, the potential spread gest that changes in temperature and precipitation of malaria in a step-wise fashion would pose severe could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in threats to human health as well as to economic devel- Zimbabwe; previously unsuitable areas with high pop- opment. This would be one of the dangerous interac- ulation densities — especially in the now-hospitable tions envisaged in CCF-II, in which a non-linear highlands — would become suitable for transmission. change has an unpredictable cascading effect on soci- The low-lying savannah and areas with little precipita- ety and social development. tion show varying degrees of change. More intense precipitation events and floods are also projected in sub-Saharan Africa and these events are expected to precipitate large outbreaks. CASE STUDIES Part2a.qxd 9/27/0612:51PMPage40

CASE STUDIES 40 | INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY DISEASES Copyright 2005.TheNewYork Times Company poorcountriesonalargescale,andnowtheyhavetheLubomboinitiativetoshowthemhow.malaria invery istofight unlike manyotherdiseases,isentirelypreventableandcurable.Thechallengeforhealthofficials ofAfrica.Malaria, Malaria, andtheLubomboinitiative'smanagersarebeginningtogetcallsfromotherparts money driedup.Today moneyisavailableagain,fromtheGlobalFundto FightAIDS,Tuberculosis and Fifty yearsago,Africadidusehousesprayingwidely, withgoodresults,butsuchprojectsvanishedasthe there areothersuccessfulones,runbyMarathonOil,ExxonMobilandtheKonkolacopperminesinZambia. bybusinessinAfrica, Whileitisstillthelargestantimalaria projectstarted but havelosttheireffectiveness. costs aboutUSD1.40 percureforadults,abandoningthecommonlyusedmedicinesthatcostonlypennies covering theircommunitiesonfoot.Peoplewhogetmalariaarecuredwithanewcombinationofdrugsthat The Lubomboinitiativehiresandtrainslocalworkers,whosprayhouseswithinsecticideonceortwiceayear, economy by20percentover15yearsincountrieswhereitismostendemic. of themchildrenunder5.AcommissiontheWorld HealthOrganization foundthatmalariashrinksthe calculation, andshouldfollowtheLubomboexample.Malariakillssometwomillionpeopleayear, nearlyall shouldmakethesame and improvehealth,butalsotoencouragetourismforeigninvestment.Governments Africa financedbymorethan100companiesthere.Theydecidedtofightmalarianotonlysavechildren In itsfirstyears,financingcamefromBHPBillitonandtheBusinessTrust, adevelopmentorganizationinSouth sible andcost-effective. ably thebestantimalariaprograminworld,anexampleforothercountriesthatrollingbackmalariaispos- the aluminumsmelter, themalariaparasite.TheLubomboinitiativeisprob- 76percentfewerchildrennowcarry treatment began,malariaincidencedroppedinoneSouthAfricanprovinceby96percent.Intheareaaround andstate-of-the-art define theregion.Inthreeyearssincehouse-to-houseinsecticidespraying,surveillance 40,000 squaremiles.TheprojectiscalledtheLubomboSpatialDevelopmentInitiative,aftermountainsthat Mozambique andSwazilandtoeradicatemalariainaswathofthethreecountriesmeasuringmorethan To dealwiththeproblem,companydidsomethingextraordinary. bySouthAfrica, Itjoinedaneffort contractors died. duringthefirsttwoyearsofconstructiontherewere6,000casesmalaria,andatleast13 Nevertheless, workers mosquitonetsandfreemedicine,sprayedtheconstructionsiteworkers'houseswithinsecticide. Maputo, thecapitalofMozambique.Thecompanyknewthatmalariaplaguedregion.Itgaveallits In 1998,theAustralia-basedminingcompanyBHPBillitonbeganbuildingahugealuminumsmelteroutside The NewYork Times, 27March2005 A MALARIASUCCESS Part2a.qxd 9/27/0612:53PMPage41 Image: Creatas Image: Figure 2.7FloodplainsProvideBreedingSitesforMosquitoes always ofconcern. economic costsofpesticidesusedforcontrolare logical, resistance-generatingimpactsand health,eco- the programsaresustained.Thelong-term —if The combinationofapproachescanbeeffective and masstreatmentprogramstointerrupttransmission. free), pesticide(DDTorpyrethrins)sprayingofhouses, “social marketing”schemes,elsewheredistributed ticide-impregnated bednets(sometimessoldthrough malaria. Thecampaignsincludecommunityuseofpes- Malaria havegeneratedmanyprogramstocontrol and theGlobalFundtoFightAIDS,Tuberculosis and Health Organization’s “Roll-Back-Malaria”program frommalaria.TheWorldmorbidity andmortality Global initiativeshavebeendevelopedtoreducethe should beencouragedandsupported. of malariaoutbreaks,andsuchcooperativeprograms COF havethepotentialtogreatlyreduceintensity likeSAR- tions andallocateresources.Regionalefforts Early Warning Systems,planpublichealthinterven- make useofseasonalforecaststodevelopHealth African RegionalClimateOutlookForum(SARCOF),to including Mozambique,haveestablishedtheSouthern Africancountries, climate anddisease,14southern Using newknowledgeabouttheinteractionsbetween inthecontroloftransmission. important drainage ditches),ifproperlymaintained,canbe and environmental modifications(forexample,culverts fish andadultmosquito-eatingbats.Inurbanareas, removing habitatforpredators,suchaslarvae-eating fragmentation increasesmosquito-breedingsites,while Deforested areasarepronetofloodingandhabitat forlimitingthespreadofmalaria. mental intervention Preventing deforestationisthemostsignificantenviron- RECOMMENDATIONS SPECIFIC except Hawaii,AlaskaandOregon(CDC2005). inallstates toes, humansoranimalshasbeenreported US. Since1999intheUS,WNVactivitymosqui- the USandFrance,inbirdsIsrael horsesinMorocco,Italy,affecting ElSalvador, Mexico, Russia, Israel,theUS,andCanadaplusepizootics Republic, theDemocraticRepublicofCongo, occurred inhumansAlgeria,Romania,theCzech Since 1990,outbreaksofWNVencephalitishave humans. systeminvolvementandsevendeathsin with nervous suddenly inQueens,NY, andledtonumerouscases Americas untilthesummerof1999,whenitappeared domestic animals.Thediseasewasunknowninthe risks tohumansandwildlifeaswellzoo with “spill-over”tohumans.WNVposessignificant 1937, isazoonosis(adiseaseinvolvinganimals), West Nilevirus(WNV),firstidentifiedinUganda BACKGROUND Douglas Causey Paul Epstein OF GLOBAL CHANGE A DISEASEOFWILDLIFEANDFORCE WEST NILEVIRUS

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CASE STUDIES 42 | INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY DISEASES quitoes canbreed,andstagnant riversandstreamsdo drainage systemsleavemore fetidpoolsinwhichmos- outbreaks ofWNVandSLE. Antiquatedurban Factors otherthanweatherandclimatecontributeto tion. mals, actingas“bridgevectors”totransfertheinfec- These mosquitoesbitebirds,humansandotherani- of mosquitoesbreedintheopen,standingwater. When droughtsyieldtolatesummerrains,othertypes increasing the“viralload”inbirdsandmosquitoes. appear toamplifythiscycle, Drought andwarmth toes (thatpreferentiallybitebirds)andthebirds. “maintenance cycle.”Thisinvolvestheculexmosqui- ofthelifecycleWNVandSLEis The firstpart such asdragonfliesanddamselflies. and droughtmayreducethepredatorsofmosquitoes, trate infectedbirdsandthemosquitoesbitingthem, tial fortransmission.Shrinkingwatersitescanconcen- of viruseswithinthemosquitoes,enhancingpoten- accompanying droughtsalsoacceleratethematuration droughts (Spielman1967).Warm temperatures pools ofnutrient-richwaterremaininthedrainsduring WNV, basins,wheresmall thrivesincitystorm-catch Culex pipiens Culex disease. WNV isanurban-basedmosquito-borne outbreaks inFlorida(Shamanetal.2002). Bowl,’ andlowwatertablesareassociatedwithSLE SLE firstoccurredintheUS1933,during‘Dust involving thesamemosquitoesplusbirdsandanimals. minants ofWNVbecausetheirsimilarlifecycles, in thiscasestudytoanalyzethemeteorologicaldeter- association (MonathandTsai 1987).SLEisreferredto St. Louisencephalitis(SLE)inUScitiesrevealsasimilar coincidingwithurbanoutbreaksof weather patterns ture (EpsteinandDeFilippo2001).Ananalysisof past decaderevealthatdroughtwasacommonfea- mammals. LargeEuropeanoutbreaksofWNVinthe that circulateamongurbanmosquitoes,birdsand anomalous weatherconditionscanamplifyflaviviruses While itisnotknownhowWNVenteredtheUS, THE ROLE OFCLIMATE wildlife. es arecapableofinfectinghumans,horsesand members ofthisJapaneseBencephalitisfamilyvirus- emerged inEurope(Weissenböck etal.2002).Many A newflavivirus,Usutu,akintoWNV, hasrecently , the primary mosquitovector(carrier)for , theprimary consume mosquito larvae. consume mosquitolarvae. healthyfishpopulationsthat not adequatelysupport transmission. drought in2005wereassociatedwithlowerlevelsof areas withdrought,whilespringrainsandthesummer of 2003and2004sawpersistenttransmissionin Columbia andfiveCanadianprovinces.Thesummers WNV casesoccurred,across44states,theDistrictof ing littlesnowpackintheRockies.Anexplosionof winterleav- summer drought,compoundedbyawarm West andMidwestexperiencedsevere springand US 2002-2005: Afghanistan. Europe andtheMiddleEast,fromSpainto dry, asdroughtconditions prevailedacrosssouthern migrating birds.In2000theregionwasespecially 1951 (Marbergetal.1956),amajorstopoverfor Israel 2000: July heatwaveenvelopedtheNortheast. andMid-Atlanticstates,athree-week Northeast severe drought(followingamildwinter),affected US 1999: al. 1999). ter, springdroughtandsummerheatwave(Platanovet win- Russia inthesummerof1999,followingawarm Russia 1999: (Savage etal.1999). ed withaprolongeddroughtandheatwave encing neurologicaldiseaseand17fatalities,coincid- and inBucharest.Thisepisode,withhundredsexperi- occurred in1996RomaniatheDanubeValley Romania 1996: IN THEPAST DECADE OUTBREAKSSIGNIFICANT OFWNV cases and284deathsin2002; 9,856casesand 2001). Subsequentoutbreaks intheUSinclude4,161 (Nashetal. or persistentneurologicalimpairment fromprolonged suffered and manyofthe55survivors of thebrainandsurroundingmembrane).Sevendied inflammation) andmeningoencephalitis(inflammation systemdisease:encephalitis(brain developed nervous In the1999NewYork Cityoutbreak, 62people HEALTH ANDECOLOGICAL IMPACTS In thespringandsummerof1999,a WNV was first reported inIsrael WNV wasfirstreported A largeoutbreakofWNVoccurredin A significantoutbreakofWNV In thesummerof2002much Part2a.qxd 9/27/06 12:53 PM Page 43

262 deaths in 2003; 7,470 cases and 88 deaths in Figure 2.8 Red-Tailed Hawk 2004. The falling death rate suggests that the viru- lence of this emerging disease in North Americas is diminishing over time.

In the summers of 2003 and 2004, cases of WNV in the US were concentrated in Colorado and then California, Texas and Arizona — areas that experienced prolonged spring drought. The eastern US, with wet springs, had relatively calm seasons. In 2005, very variable conditions in the US were associated with an August surge of cases scattered across the nation, predominantly in the Southwest and California. Some birds of prey have died from West Nile virus. Most WNV infections are without symptoms. Image: Matt Antonio/Dreamstime Approximately 20% of those infected develop a mild The population impacts on wildlife and biodiversity illness (West Nile fever), with symptoms including have not been adequately evaluated. The impacts of fatigue, appetite loss, nausea and vomiting, eye, head declines in birds of prey could ripple through ecologi- and muscle aches. Of those with severe disease, cal systems and food chains and could, in itself, con- about two out of three can suffer from persistent fatigue tribute to the emergence of disease. Declines in rap- and other neurological symptoms. The most severe tors, such as owls, hawks, eagles, kestrels and marlins type of disease affects the nervous system. could have dramatic consequences for human health. (Some raptors have died from WNV, but the popula- WNV has also spread to 230 species of animals, tion-level impacts are as yet unknown.) These birds including 138 species of birds and is carried by 37 prey upon rodents and keep their numbers in check. species of mosquitoes. Not all animals fall ill from When rodent populations “explode” — as when WNV, but the list of hosts and reservoirs includes floods follow droughts, forests are clear-cut, or dis- dogs, cats, squirrels, bats, chipmunks, skunks, rabbits eases attack predators — their legions can become and reptiles. Spread of WNV in North America fol- prolific transporters of pests and pathogens. The list of lows the flyways of migratory birds (Rappole et al. rodent-borne ills includes Lyme disease, leptospirosis 2000). In 2002, several zoo animals died and over and plague, and hantaviruses and arenaviruses (Lassa 15,000 horses became ill; one in three died or had DISEASES INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY

fever, Guaranito, Junin, Machupo and Sabiá), which | to be euthanized due to neurological illness. cause hemorrhagic fevers. 43

The increasing domination of urban landscapes by “generalist” birds, like crows, starlings and Canada ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS Geese, may have contributed to the spread of West Nile, along with the numerous mosquito breeding The costs for treatment and containment of WNV disease sites, like old tires and stagnant waterways. in 1999 were estimated to be US $500 million Fortunately, vaccines for horses and some birds are (Newcomb 2003). Subsequent health costs, screening available, and newly released condors are being inoc- of blood, community surveillance, monitoring and interven- ulated to stave off their “second” extinction in the wild. tions have continued to affect life and health insurance figures, and the costs for cities and states to maintain WNV has spread to the Caribbean, it is a suspect in surveillance and mosquito control for this urban-based the decline in several bird species in Central America, mosquito-borne disease have been substantial. and WNV killed horses in El Salvador in 2002 and in Mexico in 2003, the latter in clear association with The economic consequences of large epizootics (epi- drought. Monitoring birds in northern Brazil (along demics in animals) involving horses, birds and 300 songbird flyways) and elsewhere would be warranted other animals could involve direct losses in terms of in Latin America. tourism and indirect losses via changes in the balances of functional groups that help to keep pests and

pathogens in check. CASE STUDIES Part2a.qxd 9/27/0612:53PMPage44

CASE STUDIES 44 | INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY DISEASES and developingnations. would taxpublichealthinfrastructuresindeveloped ease existindevelopednations,large-scaleoutbreaks ly vulnerable.Whiletheresourcestocontrolthisdis- of humansandwildlifeinLatinAmericaareparticular- stantial ifWest Nile virusspreads.Naïvepopulations The impactmeasuredinDALYs wouldbequitesub- tionships andnaturalfoodwebs. could havedevastatingimpactsonpredator/preyrela- of illnesseswildlife,especiallymammalsandbirds, in Europe,couldemergethecomingyears.Arash More flaviviruses,likeUsutu,whichrecentlyappeared populations fillinginthenichearespreadingrabies. “un-recycled” carcassesalongroadsides.Thedog garbage dumps(Kretsch2003;Oaks2003)hasleft poisoning withtoxicmedicationspickedupfrom example, therapiddeclineinvulturesIndiafrom releasing rodentsfromchecksontheirpopulations.For scavenging) couldripplethroughecologicalsystems, (that provideessentialfunctions,suchaspredationand species. Theimpactsofextinctionkeystonespecies lence, couldleadtotheextinctionofvulnerable in newareas,pluspossiblemutationstogreaterviru- ulations. IntroductionofWNVintonaïvepopulations is thepotentialimpactonwildlife,especiallybirdpop- The mostsignificantnon-linearthreatposedbyWNV CCF-II: SURPRISEIMPACTS increasing thepercapitalossinDALYs. neurologicaldisability,disease canleadtolong-term ofWNV,the immediatemorbidityandmortality this built upamongmammalianandavianhosts.Beyond tions, aswellthepopulationimpactsandimmunity human healthriskwillalsodependontheinterven- tors andavianhosts,puttingmorehumansatrisk.The flooding mightleadtowiderdispersalofinfectedvec- viral amplificationandlargerepidemics.Increased and mammalhostsleadtoevenhigherlevelsof might elevatebaselineWNVinfectionratesinavian WNV. Morefrequentdroughtandhighertemperatures cycle mayexposenewareasandpopulationsto Warming andtheintensificationofhydrologic CCF-I: ESCALATING IMPACTS THE FUTURE information inatimely,information well-organizedfashion. communication methodstocollectanddisseminate Above all,citiesneedplans,monitoringsystemsand birds andpollinatingbees). to was previouslyusedandisknowntobeharmful are muchlesstoxictohumansthanismalathion(which extracts) pyrethrin agents(derivativesofchrysanthemum and aerialsprayingisnotinnocuous,although effective wildlife. Street-by-streetsprayingisnotvery humansand the sprayingofpesticidesthatmayharm canlimitthemeasuresoflastresort: Early interventions haps somezooanimals. and vaccinationcanbeprotectiveforhorsesper- means ofindividualprotectionagainstmosquitobites and backyardswimmingpools.Therearenumerous overdiscardedtiresandcleaningdrains,vases turning “Source reduction”ofbreedingsitesiskey, including tomarineorganisms. plies andpossiblycauseharm chemicalthatcanenterwatersup- hormone-mimicking ismethaprine,a animals andhumans.Thealternative butinnocuousforlarge that istoxicfortheculexlarvae withthebacterialagent particularly ofurbandrains, Such measuresincludelarvaciding timely, environmentallyfriendlyinterventions. birds andmosquitoes,canhelpmunicipalitiesdevelop tems, withclimateforecastinganddetectionofvirusin sys- the controlofinfectiousdiseases.Earlywarning andresponseplansarethefirststepsin Surveillance RECOMMENDATIONS SPECIFIC Bacillus sphaericus Bacillus Part2a.qxd 9/27/06 12:53 PM Page 45

98% of the two-year life cycle takes place off the host, climate acts as an essential determinant of distribution of established tick populations across North America (Fish 1993).

Although recent emergence of Lyme disease throughout LYME DISEASE the northeastern and mid-Atlantic states has been linked to reforestation (Barbour and Fish 1993), additional influence of environmental change can be IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE expected considering the anticipated shifts in climate. John Brownstein HEALTH AND ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS BACKGROUND

Lyme disease most often presents with a characteristic Lyme disease is the most prevalent vector-borne dis- "bull’s-eye" rash, called erythema migrans, surrounding ease in the continental United States. Lyme was discov- the attached tick. The initial infection can be asympto- ered in 1977 when arthritis occurred in a cluster of matic, but is often accompanied by fever, weakness, children in and around Lyme, CT. Since that emer- and head, muscle and joint aches. At this stage, treat- gence, Lyme disease has spread throughout the ment with antibiotics clears the infection and cures the Northeast of the US, two north-central states disease. Untreated Lyme disease can affect the nerv- (Minnesota and Wisconsin) and the Northwest ous system, the musculoskeletal system or the heart. (California and Oregon). In these areas, between 1% The most common late manifestation is intermittent and 3% of people who live there become infected at swelling and pain of one or several joints, usually some time. large, weight-bearing joints such as the knee. Some infected persons develop chronic neuropathies, with Lyme disease is also common in Europe, especially in cognitive disorders, sleep disturbance, fatigue and forested areas of middle Europe and Scandinavia, personality changes. and has been reported in Russia, China, and Japan. The deer tick, Ixodes scapularis, is the primary vector Figure 2.9 New Cases of Lyme Disease in the US: 1992-2003 of Borrelia burgdorferi, the spirochete bacteria that is 25,000 the agent of Lyme disease in North America (Keirans et al. 1996; Dennis et al. 1998). I. scapularis is also 20,000 INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY DISEASES INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY

a known vector of human babesiosis, and human | 15,000 granulocytic ehrlichiosis (Des Vignes and Fish 1997; 45

Schwartz et al. 1997). 10,000

Although the local abundance of vectors may be guid- 5,000

ed by “density-dependent” factors such as competition, 0 predation, and parasitism, the geographic range of 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 arthropod (tick) habitat suitability is controlled by other Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention factors, such as climate. ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS ROLE OF CLIMATE Chronic disability is the primary concern with Lyme dis- Climatic variation largely determines the maintenance ease and as new populations are exposed in areas and distribution of deer tick populations by regulating where the medical profession has little experience with off-host survival (Needham and Teel 1991; Bertrand this disease, such cases are projected to rise in the and Wilson 1996). The abiotic environment (that near-term. The productivity losses associated with includes soils, minerals and water availability) plays a chronic disabilities affect individuals, communities, vital role in the survival of I. scapularis with both water work places and health insurance companies. stress and temperature regulating off-host mortality. As CASE STUDIES Part2a.qxd 9/27/0612:53PMPage46

CASE STUDIES 46 | INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY DISEASES Expansion oftherange may increaseaswell,intensifyingtransmission. mission currently. Insomeareastheabundanceofticks tinuing transmissioninmostoftheregionswithtrans- ward spreadofLyme diseaseintoCanada,withcon- winterscreatesidealconditionsforthenorth- warmer conditionsand spreadofwarming The northward CCF-I: ESCALATING IMPACTS THE FUTURE disabilitiesincurred. long-term These figuresmayunderestimatethetruecostsof neurologicalandcardiac disease. advanced arthritis, toprevent55,626casesof apeutic interventions US $2.5billion(1996dollars)overfiveyearsforther- al. 1998)yieldedanexpectednationalexpenditureof population, alaterdecisionanalysismodel(Maeset dence of4.73casesLyme diseaseper100,000 about US$60,000.Basedonanannualmeaninci- estimatedcostspercaseat 1993) conservatively One analysis(Vanderhoof andVanderhoof-Forschner particular geographicareas. particular cantly contributetothemaintenanceofpopulationsin mean temperatures,aswellvaporpressure,signifi- ease transmissionshowthatmaximum,minimumand Model projectionsoftheareassuitableforLyme dis- temperatures (LindgrenandGustafson2001). tion iscorrelatedwithmilderwintersandhigherdaily migra- has alreadybeendocumentedandthenorthern Ixodes ricinus Ixodes in Sweden Figures 2.11Lyme ModelProjections Ixodes for suitability habitat climate-based southern of Distribution Figure 2.10CurrentLyme DiseaseHabitat Projected distribution of climate-based habitat suitability for Ixodes for suitability habitat climate-based of distribution Projected scapularis as predicted by the climate-based statistical model. Non- model. statistical climate-based the by predicted as scapularis scapualris during three future time periods: the 2020s (a), the 2050s the (a), 2020s the periods: time future three during scapualris overlapped yellow pixels represent suitable areas that have yet to be to yet have that areas suitable represent pixels yellow overlapped (b), and the 2080s (c). The models project an increase in suitable in increase an project models The (c). 2080s the and (b), colonized. The blue line across present-day Ontario represents the represents Ontario present-day across line blue The colonized. habitat of 213% by the 2080s. 2080s. the by 213% of habitat northern limit of habitat suitability predicted by Lindsay et al. (1995). al. et Lindsay by predicted suitability habitat of limit northern Source: Brownstein et al. 2005 al. et Brownstein Source: Source: Brownstein et al. 2005 al. et Brownstein Source: (c) (b) (a) Expanded Unsuitability Constant Unsuitability Expanded Suitability Constant Suitability Part2a.qxd 9/27/0612:53PMPage47 necessary toyieldreproducingpopulationsof necessary 1997). Climatechangemayprovidetheconditions etal. Ontario(Schwartz ber oflocationsinsouthern establishment hasonlybeenshownforalimitednum- tions inCanada(Keiransetal.1996,Scotter2001), abruptly andexplosively. disease willchangeitsdistributionandincidence year cycleoftheticksthemselves,itisunlikelythatthis to themanycomponentsoflifecycle,andtwo- on changesinaveragetemperaturesalone.But,due suitable habitatmorerapidlythanexpectationsbased all theseelements.Very wintersmaychangethe warm habitatandfoodsourcesfor mice andthesupporting complex lifecycleinvolvingticks,deer, white-footed Lyme diseaseisaslowlyadvancing disease,givenits CCF-II: SURPRISEIMPACTS AppalachianMountains. the southern predicts advancementofsuitabilityinto of increasingtemperatures,themodel biota (Schulzeetal.1994).Asaresult between climate,physicalfactorsand ence onthecomplexinteraction ulation establishmentthroughitsinflu- pop- populations asitindirectlyaffects limitingfactorfor important into higheraltitudes.Elevationisan results intheextensionofsuitability Minimum temperatureincreasealso al. 1996). introductions viaattachmenttobirdhosts(Klichet of theborderbymovementonmammalhostsor intoCanada.Though ing ofsuitableareanorth al. 1996).Thistrendisclearlyshownbythespread- degree ofsubfreezingtemperatureexposure(Vandyk et andthe inverse relationshipbetweenticksurvival sion intohigherlatitudes,whichisexplainedbythe The riseinminimumtemperatureresultstheexpan- laris scapularis either bythesystematicadvancementfromsouth has beencollectedfromavarietyofloca- I. scapularis I. I. scapu- I. I. Lyme disease. promise andhavethepotentialtolimitspreadof haveshown targeted vaccinationandlarvacides, infection rates.Environmentalmethods,includinghost- tective measuresforhigh-riskpopulationscanreduce Personalpro- strengthening publichealthinterventions. able toolsforpreparinghealthprofessionalsand Models thatpredictdiseaseemergencecanbevalu- study. ble roleofotherticksintransmittingLyme isunder Texas) thatalsorespondstoantibiotics,andthepossi- (Mississippi, SouthCarolina,Georgia,Florida,and US inthesouthern disease hasbeenreported Martha’s Vineyard, MA(USA)since2000.ALyme-like break oftularemia(“rabbitfever”)thathaspersistedon of ticksisbeingstudiedintheinvestigationanout- encephalitis(aviraldisease).Thepossiblerole borne (rickettsial diseases),andespeciallyinEurope,tick- (bacterial), RockyMountainspottedfeverandQ babesiosis (ananimal,malaria-likeillness),erhlichiosis eases iswarranted.Tick-borne diseasesinclude studyofLyme dis- diseaseandothertick-borne Further SPECIFIC REC OMMENDATIONS

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CASE STUDIES 48 | INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY DISEASES the causativebacteria, Western fencelizardcontainsachemicalthatdestroys US, wherethebloodof is foundinthewestern Another dimensionoftheprotectiverolebiodiversity habitat change,greaterclimatevariabilityordisease. species providesbackupifsomegroupsdeclinedueto of“insurance” Hannah 2005).Adiversifiedportfolio formaintaining resilience(Lovejoyand is important similarfunctions,suchaspredation, groups performing anabundanceofanimalsandmultiple Preserving Lyme andotherrodent-related diseases. like mostrodents),therebycontrollingtheprevalenceof tunists and“generalists”(thosewithwide-rangingdiets, — isessentialtokeepincheckpopulationsofoppor- of rodents—forexample,raptors,snakesandcoyotes breedingpopulationsofpredators habitat thatsupports Quantity ofhabitatmatters.Maintainingextensive rates ofinfectionandtherebyreducetransmission. diversity amongrodentpopulationsappearsto“dilute” thebacteria.Thus,greaterbiological ble tocarrying chipmunks —competitorsofmicearelesssuscepti- (LoGiudice etal.2003)foundthatvoles,squirrelsand Institute ofEcosystemStudiesinNewYork State agents (Chivian2001;Chivian2002).Work atthe the colonizationandspreadofpestsinfectious dampen theimpactsofclimatechangethatinfluence Diversity ofspeciesandmosaicshabitatcanhelp bacteria ticks, Lyme-infected transport can that mouse tailed White Figure 2.12 INFECTIOUS DISEASE THE SPREADOF BUFFERS AGAINST BIODIVERSITY the western US. the western may helpexplainthelowincidenceofLyme diseasein and viruses. and Image: John Good John Image: B. burgdorferi, B. for Lyme. This – P.E. al. 2003). in developinganddeveloped nations(Diaz-Sanchezet factor behindtheepidemicof asthmabeingobserved tion ofairpollutionandallergenexposuremaybeone al. 2000;D'Amatoet2002).Thus,thecombina- sure toenhancetheallergicresponse(Diaz-Sanchezet been showntoactsynergisticallywithallergenexpo- have sures (Peden2003).Dieselexhaustparticles expo- (Platts-Mills 2005),aswelloutdoorparticle the indoorenvironment(IOM2000),lifestylefactors diseases, andconsiderableattentionhasfocusedon thedevelopmentofallergic are manyfactorsaffecting the resultofchangingenvironmentalexposures.There ponent, therapidriseindiseaseoccurrenceislikely Although allergicdiseaseshaveastronggeneticcom- gen exposurethaneverbefore. ofthepopulation proportion Zollner etal.2005),currentlythereisamuchgreater and Haahtela2005;LawsonSenthilselvan (ordecreasing)(Hertzen increases maybelevelingoff suggestthatthese 2004). Whilesomerecentreports (CDC increases inprevalence,morbidityandmortality by affected African Americansaredisproportionately dren (Manninoetal.1998).Low-incomefamiliesand increase —160%occurredinpreschool-agedchil- both adultsandchildren.However, thelargest lence ofasthmaincreased75%from1980-1994in preva- symptoms.Theself-reported chronic pulmonary from nificant populationofadultsandchildrensuffering 2004). Bothconditionstakentogetherrepresentasig- 16 millionadults(or7.5%oftheUSpopulation;CDC prevalence intheUSatabout9millionchildrenand Disease ControlandPrevention(CDC)estimateasthma mon aeroallergens.Inaddition,theCentersfor allergic rhinitis(hayfever),largelyinresponsetocom- from tion. Approximately40millionAmericanssuffer roughly17%ofthepopula- illness intheUS,affecting Allergic diseasesarethesixthleadingcauseofchronic BACKGROUND Christine A.Rogers AND AEROALLERGENS CARBON DIOXIDE that isvulnerabletoaller- Part2a.qxd 9/27/06 12:53 PM Page 49

While the role of allergen exposure alone in causing Second, recent studies have shown increased plant allergic diseases is unknown, allergens from pollen reproductive effort and pollen production under condi-

grains and fungal spores are unequivocally associated tions of elevated CO2. For example, loblolly pines

with exacerbation of existing disease. Changes in respond to experimentally elevated CO2 (200 ppm atmospheric chemistry and climate that tend to above ambient levels) by tripling their production of increase the presence of pollen and fungi in the air seeds and cones (LaDeau and Clark 2001). Long-term therefore contribute to a heightened risk of allergic records at pollen monitoring stations in Europe show symptoms and asthma. increasing annual pollen totals for several types of trees including hazel, birch and grasses (Spieksma THE ROLE OF CLIMATE et al. 1995; Frei 1998).

For ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a weed of POLLEN open disturbed ground that produces potent pollen allergens, controlled-environment experiments show Several studies have explored the potential impacts of that plants grown at two times ambient CO2 have CO2 and global warming on plants. In general, greater biomass, and produce 40% to 61% more

increasing CO2 and temperatures stimulate plants to pollen than do controls (Ziska and Caulfield 2000; increase photosynthesis, biomass, water-use efficiency Wayne et al. 2002) (see figure 2.13). This finding and reproductive effort (Bazzaz 1990; LaDeau and was corroborated in field experiments using a natural

Clark 2001). These are considered positive responses urban-rural CO2 gradient (Ziska et al. 2003). for agriculture, but for allergic individuals, they could Figure 2.14 Ragweed Pollen Production Under Elevated CO mean increased exposure to pollen allergens. 2

Figure 2.13 Pollen Grains 70

30 ragweed growth 20 INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY DISEASES INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY | Percent increase above controls 10 49 0

350 ppm CO 2 700 ppm CO 2 Electron microscope image of ragweed pollen grains. Carbon dioxide concentration Image: Johns Hopkins University Height Seed mass Pollen Biomass

Beyond these broad changes, climate warming has Plants grown at high CO2 levels grow moderately more (9%) but resulted in specific phenological changes in plants. produce significantly more (61%) pollen than those grown at lower First, the timing of spring budding has advanced in levels. Source: Wayne et al. 2002 recent decades (Fitter and Fitter 2002; van Vliet et al. 2003). Hence the allergenic pollen season for many Increased temperature and CO2 can also have interac- spring flowering plants also begins earlier (Jäger et al. tive effects on pollen production due to longer growing 1996; Frei 1998; van Vliet et al. 2002). The rate of seasons. In experiments simulating early spring, rag- these advances is 0.84–0.9 days/year (Frenguelli et weed plants grew larger, had more flowers and pro- al. 2002; Clot 2003). While this is generally consid- duced more pollen than did plants started later. Those ered to be solely the effect of temperature, some stud- started later with high CO2 produced 55% more

pollen than did those grown at ambient CO2 (Rogers ies suggest that CO2 can independently affect the timing of phenological events as well (Murray and et al. in review).

Ceulemans 1998). CASE STUDIES Part2a.qxd 9/27/0612:53PMPage50

CASE STUDIES 50 | INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY DISEASES Many soil fungi are arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, living symbiotically living fungi, mycorrhizal arbuscular are fungi soil Many Figure 2.16SoilFungi increase theavailabilityofpollenallergens. duced, mostchangesinenvironmentalfactorsactto trations (throughwashout)evenifmorepollenispro- concen- some regionscoulddecreaseoverallairborne although increasedspringrainfallinsomeyearsand will becreatedforweedsafterdroughtandfire.Lastly, will not(Ziska2003).Insomeinstancesnewhabitats able totakeadvantageofnewconditionswhileothers ture regimesarealsolikely, assomespecieswillbe in thedistributionsofspeciesduetoshiftstempera- pollenfromyeartoyear.of airborne Inaddition, shifts ous reproductionoftrees),whichresultsinhugefluxes the frequencyofmasting(periodicburstssimultane- allergens. Forexample,climatevariabilitymayalter pollen ing, productionanddistributionofairborne There aremanywaysclimatechangewillalterthetim- Tenaglia/Missouriplants.com Dan Image: Figure 2.15Ragweed with trees supplying nutrients and recycling decayed matter. decayed recycling and nutrients supplying trees with Mushrooms are their flowering bodies. bodies. flowering their are Mushrooms Image: Sara Wright/USDA Agricultural Research Service Service Research Agricultural Wright/USDA Sara Image: Household mold often follows flooding. flooding. follows often mold Household Image: Chris Rogers Chris Image: Figure 2.17HouseholdMold (Klironomos 2005),itislikelythathigherCO fungi andtheircomplexassociationsintheecosystem forawiderangeof needed toexaminethiseffect 2003; Wolf studyis etal.2003).Whilefurther more spores(Klironomosetal.1997;Treseder etal. ations withtreeroots)togrowfasterandproduce stimulates somesymbioticfungi(inmycorrhizalassoci- fieldexperimentsshowthatelevatedCO Long-term MOLDS financial andtechnicalresources. and maintenancewillalsoincreasewithoutaninfluxof problems associatedwithpoorbuildingconstruction conditioning) onawiderscale,theresultingmold gies tocopewithclimatechange(forexample,air technolo- As developingcountriesincorporatemodern ties, thehealthimpactsofasthmacanbesignificant. For developingnationsandforthoseinpoorcommuni- tor visits,medications,emergencyvisitsorhospitalizations. monly beginsinchildhoodandrequiresfrequentdoc- and inflammationofthelungpassages,asthmacom- obstruction, ofbreath,wheezing,airway by shortness symptoms. Acomplex,seriousconditioncharacterized thepresenceofasthma Air qualitydirectlyaffects HEALTH ANDECOLOGICAL IMPACTS enhance fungalgrowthdirectlycreatedbyCO increased plantbiomass. indirectly asfungirespondtothepresenceof 2 will 2 , and 2 Part2a.qxd 9/27/06 12:53 PM Page 51

• Heat waves, unhealthy air masses, high heat AIR QUALITY indices (a function of temperature and humidity), plus lack of nighttime relief all affect respiratory and car- AND CLIMATE diac conditions and mortality. • Particulates, carbon monoxide, smog and carcino- CHANGE ISSUES genic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from drought-driven wildfires can affect populations living at great distances from the fires. • Forest fires in Southeast Asia and in the Amazon • Floods foster fungal growth in houses. are generating significant quantities of respiratory – P.E. irritants, while harming wildlife and releasing large pulses of carbon into the atmosphere.

• Dust, containing particles and microbes, from ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS regions plagued by persistent drought, is being carried in large clouds over long distances. Dust clouds Asthma is therefore a significant expense for society from African deserts, following the same trade winds and health care systems. The total costs of asthma in that drove the “triangular trade,” are now exacerbat- the US are estimated to have increased between the ing asthma in Caribbean islands, with implications mid-1980s and the mid-1990s from approximately US for health of islanders and for tourism. $4.5 billion to over US $10 billion. Weiss and col- leagues estimated the total asthma costs for Australia, o In 2005, the extent of the dust cloud crossing the UK and the US (adjusted to 1991 US dollars for the Atlantic reached the size of the continental comparison purposes) at US $457 million, US $1.79 US. Desertification of Africa’s Sahel region bor- billion and US $6.40 billion, respectively. Updating dering the Sahara (from overgrazing and cli- these figures to 2003 dollars using the Consumer Price mate changes) generates the enormous clouds of Index (CPI) yields approximately US $617 million, US dust and soil microorganisms. Meanwhile, tem- $2.42 billion and US $8.64 billion, respectively. perature gradients in the Atlantic Ocean created These data are probably underestimates, as the preva- by North Atlantic freshening and tropical ocean lence of asthma was rising steadily during this period. warming are propelling the vast dust clouds rapidly across the Atlantic (Hurrell et al. 2001). Beyond immediate costs of health care — clinic visits, emergency room visits, hospitalizations, and medica- o In recent years asthma has skyrocketed in sever- tions — are the less tangible losses due to school INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY DISEASES INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY

al Caribbean Islands. Once rare among the absences and work absences. There are approximate- | islands enjoying ocean breezes, today one in ly 37 million lost days of work and school due to aller- 51 seven children suffer from asthma on Barbados gic diseases (AAAAI 2000). and one in four in Trinidad. Asthma attacks peak when dust clouds descend (Gyan et al. 2005). While the total costs of asthma health care in the US in 1998 were estimated to be US $12.67 billion • Vast hazes of air pollutants from coal-fired plants (based on 1994 actual costs adjusted to 1998 dollars and automotive emissions are accumulating over using the CPI), and the adjusted cost (using the CPI) large parts of Asia, affecting respiratory health, visi- projected to 2003 would be US $13.34 billion, the bility and the local climate (Ramanathan et al. annual direct and indirect costs for asthma rose from 2001). US $6.2 billion in the 1990s (Weiss et al. 1992) to • Increased carbon dioxide has been shown to stimu- US $14.5 billion in 2000 (AAAAI 2000). late reproduction in trees (for example, pines and oaks) and pollen production in ragweed. For allergic rhinitis the total direct and indirect cost esti- • Photochemical smog (ground-level ozone) results mates rose from US $2.7 billion in the 1990s from the reactions among several tailpipe emissions: (Dykewitz and Fineman 1998) to US $4.5 billion this decade (AAAAI 2000). nitrogen oxides (NOxs) and volatile organic com- pounds (VOCs), which combine rapidly during heat waves. CASE STUDIES Part2a.qxd 9/27/0612:53PMPage52

CASE STUDIES 52 | INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY DISEASES the globe.Areasplaguedby persistentdrought(as wildfires wouldalsoalterair qualityinmoreregionsof be unsustainableforagricultural systems.Repetitive order, would,inshort designed tocontrol.Thispattern birds thantheydotothepestsandweedsare lateral damage’tofriendlyinsects,pollinatorsand that thechemicalsusedforcontrolcoulddomore‘col- growth ofweedsmaybestimulatedtosuchanextent the and continuedwintersummerwarming, With continuedriseinCO CCF-II: SURPRISEIMPACTS billion annuallyoverthecomingdecade. trajectory, suggestingafigurewelloverUS$30-40 gic diseasewilllikelycontinuetorisealongasimilar steadily underCCF-I.Thecostsassociatedwithaller- associated burdensandcostsarelikelytoincrease estimated at15millionperyear. Thisnumberandthe Worldwide thenumberofDALYs lostduetoasthmais populations alone. diagnosed asthmaticsduetotheincreaseinurban By 2025therecouldbeanadditional100million fromasthma,andthatnumberisincreasing. suffer Some 300millionpeopleworldwideareknownto CCF-I: ESCALATING IMPACTS THE FUTURE Source: AmericanLungAssociation2005 • Overall allergiescostthehealthcaresystemUS • Approximately 12.8millionschooldaysaremissed • Prescription drugsrepresentedthelargestsingle • Indirect costsfromlostproductivityaddanotherUS • Reduced productivityduetodeathfromasthmarep- • Asthma causesapproximately24.5millionmissed DirecthealthcarecostsforasthmaintheUStotal • TODAY ASTHMA COSTS $18 billionannually. annually duetoasthma. direct medicalexpenditure,overUS$5billion. $4.6 billionforatotalofUS$16.1annually. ma, approachingUS$1.7billionannually. resents thelargestsingleindirectcostrelatedtoasth- work daysforadultsannually. more thanUS$11.5billionannually(2004dollars). 2 , earlyarrivalofsprings, locally andglobally. quality andreducingcarbon dioxideemissions— inimprovingair III)areallimportant (discussed inPart technologies, anddistributedgenerationofenergy andgreaterefficiency,conservation andhybrid smart plants (capturingescapingheattowater),energy energy generationinchemicalandmanufacturing powered bynaturalgasandcombined-cycleusesof Replacement ofcoal-firedutilityplantswiththose in citiesandsuburbscanlimitautomotivecongestion. growth ed bikinglanesandwalkingpaths,smart expand- smog.Improved publictransport, bine toform andemissionsthatcom- can reducedieselparticulates “the CO incitieswillreduce to reducethe“heatislandeffect” The measures(addressedintheheatwavecasestudy) replace abandonedcitylotswhereragweedgrows. plants carefullychosenforlowerallergenicity, can will reducepollencounts.Urbangardens,containing Environmental measuresthatreduceragweedgrowth gency roomvisitsandhospitalizations. community educationcanhelpreduceillness,emer- groupsofpatientsandfamilymembers, support asthma arechangingrapidlyandearlyinterventions, ity fromasthma.Treatment optionsforallergiesand outdoor allergenscanreducethemorbidityandmortal- Individual measurestoreduceexposuresindoorand SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS resulting insignificantincreasesmorbidityandmortality. wouldbelesseffective, als andhealthcareservices Under CCF-II,asthmamanagementplansbyindividu- care andmedications. ty losses,schoolabsences,andrisingcostsforhealth world, bringingwithitincreasingdisability, productivi- ofthe distress isaplausibleprojectionforlargeparts Widespreadrespiratory lar healthinthenearterm. andcardiovascu- considerably compromiserespiratory could more wildfires,anddustparticulates waves andphotochemicalsmog,greaterhumidity, The combinationofmoreaeroallergens,heat regions. tropical, temperateandnorthern carbon. Forestpestinfestationswilladdfuelforfiresin irritants,andlargepulsesof add additionalrespiratory and forestfiresinSoutheastAsiaLatinAmerica Automobile congestion,coal-firedenergygeneration, disease. swellingtheburdenofrespiratory further andmicroorganisms),willincrease, taining particulates now annuallygeneratingmillionsoftonsdust(con- examples, theAfricanSahelandChina’s Gobidesert) 2 dome” aswell.Limitingtruckandbusidling Part2a.qxd 9/27/0612:54PMPage53 Image: Photodisc Image: decades (forexample,St.Louis,1980;NewYork, asaresultofheatwavesinthepastseveral mortality ofincreasedurban there isawell-documentedpattern andCentralEurope.IntheUS Calcutta, Melbourne thousands ofpeoplehaveoccurredinLondon, In thepasttwodecades,severeheateventsaffecting BACKGROUND Alan D.Perrin David M.Mills J. ScottGreene Laurence S.Kalkstein FOR USCITIES HEAT WAVE ANDANALOG STUDIES 1.CASE THE2003EUROPEAN SUMMER HEAT WAVES EVENTS WEATHER EXTREME (Easterling etal.2000). likely”toincreaseduringthe21stcentury are “very 20th century, andmodelsprojectthattheseelements inthe indices (humidityandheat)havebeenobserved er minimumtemperaturesandanincreaseinheat hot summerdays,highermaximumtemperatures,high- (Easterlingetal.1997).More gas-induced warming atnightthataccompaniesgreenhouse ate warming and theimpactsareexacerbatedbydisproportion- (Houghtonetal.2001), longed withglobalwarming Heat waveshavebecomemoreintenseandpro- THE ROLE OFCLIMATE extensive blackouts. excess deathsintheinnercitiesandcouldprecipitate tude intheUnitedStatescouldcausethousandsof to occurduringthiscentury. Aneventofsimilarmagni- impacts farbeyondwhatlinearmodelshaveprojected 2004) andtheeventhadhumanenvironmental hottest summersinceatleastAD1500(Stottetal. The summerof2003inEuropewasmostlikelythe Chicago, 1995). 1984 and1999;Philadelphia,19911993;

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CASE STUDIES 54 | EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS Actual vs. average maximum and minimum temperatures for Paris, France, during summer of 2003. of summer during France, Paris, for temperatures minimum and maximum average vs. Actual Figure 2.18ParisTemperatures inSummer2003 equal since1370 (Chuine et al.2004).Forthe and, bygrapegrowingrecords,theeventhadno averagessince1851long-term (Stotletal.2004) (UNEP 2005).Temperatures were6°C(11°F)over ofEurope,fromSpaintotheCzechRepublic part to 30%higherthantheseasonalaverageoveralarge were unprecedented,withsummertemperatures20% The heatandthedurationof2003heatwave EUROPEAN HEATWAVE 2003 unusually coldsummer. ...” 2003wouldbeclassedasan end ofthiscentury ...bythe in theclimatesystemisalreadyunderway that potentiallydangerousanthropogenicinterference toavoidtheconclusion next fourdecades,itisdifficult of sucheventsprojectedtoincrease100-foldoverthe extreme eventtwotofourfold“...withthelikelihood ing hasincreasedtheprobabilityriskofsuchan Stott etal.(2004)calculatethatanthropogenicwarm- Source: Kalkstein et al. in review in al. et Kalkstein Source: 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 5 -u 1Jn2-u -u 1Jl2-u 1Jl1-u 0Ag30-Aug 20-Aug 10-Aug 31-Jul 21-Jul 11-Jul 1-Jul 21-Jun 11-Jun 1-Jun 2003 maximumtemperatures Long-term maximumaveragetemperatures have projected. atafasterpacethanmodels already beshortening extremeeventsmay timesforsuchvery the return heat anomaliesinthesummerof2005suggestthat and 46,000years.Theintensewidespread a heatwaveofthismagnitudeisbetween9,000 periodof Schar etal.(2004)suggestthatthereturn while theworstconditionswerecenteredinFrance. andItaly,Iberian PeninsulaandeastwardtoGermany broad regionextendingfromtheBritishIslesto above averageformostofthe2003summerina aboveaverage.Temperaturesabnormally werewell (see figure2.17).Minimumtemperatureswerealso were 10°C(18°F)greaterthanthe30-yearaverage eight days,andtheaveragemaximumtemperatures temperatures inPariswereaboveaverageforallbut period 1Junethrough31August2003,maximum 2003 minimumtemperatures Long-term minimumaveragetemperatures Part2a.qxd 9/27/0612:54PMPage55 Mean temperature and associated mortality for Paris, France: summer 2003 and average summers. average and 2003 summer France: Paris, for mortality associated and temperature Mean Figure 2.19TheParisHeatWave: DeathsandTemperatures bon (Ciasisetal.2005;Baldocchi2005).Anestimat- The soilsoftheregionexperiencedanetlosscar- late springfrost),andlossofforestcoverwildlife. ple, chickens),wiltedcrops(alreadystressedfromthe longed heatspellincludedlossoflivestock(forexam- The environmentalandecologicalimpactsofthepro- (Hémon andJougla2003). people over75yearsofageand65%werefemales 40.6°C or105°F)between8-19August,81%were facility (withcoretemperaturesequaltoorabove Ofthe2,814deathsoccurringinonehealth affected. In Paris,agedpopulationswerethemostseverely levels (registeredinSwitzerland). plushighozone from firesandreleaseofparticulates, illness tries. Therewasalsoanupsurgeofrespiratory between 22,000and35,000infiveEuropeancoun- The numberofliveslostin2003wasestimatedtobe distress. tory diovascular collapseandcerebrovascularrespira- Other conditionsthatcanbeprecipitatedincludecar- pathways: Dehydrationandheatstrokeareprimary. viaseveral Heat isassociatedwithexcessivemortality HEALTH ANDECOLOGICAL IMPACTS Source: Kalkstein et al. in review in al. et Kalkstein Source:

Daily Mortality (number of deaths) 100 150 200 250 300 350 50 0 June 25

Mea Mea Mea Mea June 30 n n n n Daily DailyMortality2003 Daily DailyMortality1999-2002 Jul 05

Jul 10 Su Su mmer Temperat mmer Temperat Jul 15 Jul 20 Jul 25 u u re 1999-2002 re 2003 Portugal exceeded1billioneuros. Portugal October 2003,thefinancialimpactestimatedby hadfacedinthelast23years.In season thatPortugal of inhabitedareas.Thiswasbyfartheworstforestfire ha plus8,973ofunoccupiedland,and1,700 reached44,123 Theagriculturalareaburned burned. forest area.Spaincameinsecondwith127, 525ha destroyingaround5.6%ofits hectares (ha)burned, wastheworsthitwith390,146 hectares. Portugal estimated forestareadestroyedreached647,069 France, Austria,Finland,DenmarkandIreland.The Spain,Italy,25,000 fireswererecordedinPortugal, the heatcatastropheofsummer2003,morethan According totheUNEPbrief(2004)onfireslinked avalanches andflashfloods. near settlements,increasingthevulnerabilitytofuture mulation ofmeltwaterinlakesprecariouslylocated alsoledtorockfallsandtheaccu- Thawing permafrost mately 5%willbeleftin2100(UNEP2004). ume in1970-80willremain2025andapproxi- 1850. Attheserates,lessthan50%oftheglaciervol- already lostmorethan25%oftheirvolumesince 1980-2000 (UNEP2004).Alpineglaciershad lost in2003;fivetimestheaverageannuallossfrom ed 10%oftotalmasstheicecoverAlpswas Jul 30 Aug 04 Aug 09 Aug 14 Aug 19

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

re (°C) re u Temperat

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CASE STUDIES 56 | EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS els areprojectionsofvariability. Scharetal.(2004) many urbancentersintheUS. Absentfromthesemod- in decades projectadoubling to triplingofmortality Models ofheatwaveimpacts forthenextseveral IMPACTS ESCALATING CCF-I: THE FUTURE Stott etal.2004). (Allen andLord2004;ScharJendritzky prices rosebeyondEU100(US$130)perMWh plants. Overthesummerof2003electricityspot to overheatingofcoolingwaterfornuclearpower mal, asitwassummer)andinterruptionsofpowerdue ness interruptionsandconferencecancellations(mini- therewerebusi- werealsoaffected; the skiingindustry Airlines, hotels,restaurants,autorentalagenciesand • Tourism losses • Travel restrictions • Businessinterruptions • Hydroelectricpowerlosses • Wildfires • Agriculturalandlivestocklosses • Lossesinproductivity • Lifeinsurancepolicies • Healthcarecosts • Liveslost HEALTH PATHWAYS ECONOMIC AND years wasestimatedtobeUS$500millionannually. cost ofmonitoringandpreparationsinsubsequent forest cover),costingaboutUS$1.6billion.Andthe (approximately14%ofits 400,000 acresinPortugal (UNEP 2004).Fireandtimberlossesincluded green fodderproductionwereallseriouslyaffected $230 millioninSwitzerland.Potato,wine,cerealand were approximatelyUS$12.3billion,including crop losses(largelyuninsuredbyprivatecompanies) treatments andambulancerides.Thelivestock and directhealthcosts,includinghospitalstays,clinic damage for heatwaveandwildfiredeaths,property The economiclossesincludedlifeinsurancepayments DIMENSIONS ECONOMIC ilar magnitude. experiencedfiresofasim- and midsectionsofPortugal Spainandthenorth In thesummerof2005,northern of 2003cametotheUS? What ifEurope’s extremesummer SURPRISEIMPACTSCCF-II: the durationofheatwaves. outs increaseswiththeintensity, geographicextentand and energygrids.Thepotentialforbrown-black- insurancecompanies, facilities, publichealthofficials, models overthenextseveraldecadescouldtaxhealth Heat wavesofthemagnitudesprojectedbylinear Japanese Bencephalitis. heavy rainsandanoutbreakofthemosquito-borne with over1,400heat-relateddeaths,followedby Pradesh, India,experiencedtemperaturesof122°F summer of2003,whileEuropesweltered,Andhra more peopleliveundervulnerableconditions.Inthe greater threats,asresourcesareofteninadequateand Heat wavesindevelopingnationspresenteven heat waves. helps accountforthemagnitudesofEuropeansummer found thatvariabilityinweatheroveraseasonalscale resources andtheenergyinfrastructure. including agriculture,forestry, infectious disease,water impact-related climateanalysis inavarietyofareas, scenarios.Theanalogs canbeutilizedfor trary ent ofgeneralcirculationmodels(GCMs)andarbi- risks ofincreasingheatonthesecitiesthatisindepend- record, arealisticanalogcanbeusedtoassessthe ofthehistorical heat eventinEuropeisnowpart Louis andWashington, DC.Asthisunprecedented five UScities:Detroit,NewYork, Philadelphia,St. Here weanalyzeanalogsofthe2003heatwavefor airconditioningandtreatmentfacilities. waves, affecting exacerbatethehealthimpactsofheat would further absorb theadditionalloads.Brownoutsandblackouts century. Inaddition,electricitygridsareinadequateto tality amongtheelderlyandchildrenovercoming Heat waveshavethepotentialtocausesignificantmor- interruptions. ing thepotentialforwide-scaleblackoutsandbusiness impacts, includingoverloadofthepowergrid,increas- magnitude intheUScouldhavewide-ranging extremes inthenearfuture.Aheatwaveofsimilar do notaccuratelyreflectthepotentialdegreeof Europe insummer2003,itisclearthatlinearmodels Given themagnitudeanddurationofeventin Part2a.qxd 9/27/06 12:54 PM Page 57

Figure 2.20 Projected Excess Deaths in Five US Cities Under Europe-2003 Conditions

1200

1000

s 800 Washington, DC

Philadelphia Death

Detroit ss 600 St. Louis Exce New York 400

200

0 Jun Jul Aug Month

EXCESS MORTALITY • Excess deaths (which are assumed to be heat-attrib- IN THE ANALOG EVENTS uted) were very high for the analog summer, with an estimated total across all locations that was more than five times the average. New York’s total alone Today, approximately 1,000 people die of heat-related exceeded the national summer average for heat- causes in the 44 largest US cities and between 1,500 related deaths. and 2,000 for the entire country (Kalkstein and Greene 1997). With this in mind, the number of excess deaths • New York and St. Louis had the highest death rates for the analog summer due to the many high-rises

estimated for each of the five cities under analog heat EVENTS EXTREME WEATHER

wave conditions is staggering. For New York City and brick row-homes with black tar roofs that | alone, excess mortality during the analog summer is absorb a lot of heat. 57 nearly 3,000.

SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS KEY PROJECTIONS HEAT/HEALTH WATCH WARNING SYSTEMS FROM THE US Early warning systems have been shown to effectively reduce mortality associated with heat waves (Kalkstein ANALOG STUDIES 2000; Ebi et al. 2004; Smith 2005). The principal • Summer frequencies of the unhealthy, “offensive air components of early warning systems include meteoro- masses” (see Appendix B for definitions) ranged logical forecasts, models to predict health outcomes, from almost 200% to over 400 % above average effective response plans, and monitoring and evalua- during the analog summer in the five cities. tion plans, set within disaster management strategies. Frequencies also exceeded the hottest summer over The meteorological component should incorporate pro- the past 59 years by a significant margin. jected increases in climate variability by considering • Consecutive days of unprecedented length with scenarios of weather anomalies outside the historic unhealthy air masses were a hallmark of the analog range. Models of adverse health outcomes need to heat wave, and the strings of days occurred on two project changes in incidence accurately, specifically different occasions during the summer. and rapidly enough for effective responses to be • All-time records for maximum and high minimum tem- implemented. Because early warnings alone are not perature were broken in all cities, and, in some sufficient to guarantee that necessary actions will be locales, there were consecutive days breaking all- taken, prevention programs need to be designed with time records. CASE STUDIES Part2a.qxd 9/27/06 12:54 PM Page 58

a better understanding of subpopulations at risk and animal and freshwater fisheries management; and the information necessary for effective response to what effect such extremes would have on electricity warnings. Monitoring and evaluation of both the generation and transmission. These analogs can be uti- response system and individual interventions need to lized much like modeled meteorological data sets and be built into system design to ensure the efficient and the methods can be expanded to include other midlati- effective use of resources. tude locations around the world.

RESPONSES INCLUDE: Figure 2.21

• Improved social networks and neighborhood response plans to transport isolated persons to facilities with adequate air conditioning (malls, theaters) • Transport vehicles • Air-conditioned facilities in group-housing settings • Prepared and well-distributed treatment facilities.

A number of structural changes can ameliorate the health impacts of heat waves by reducing the heat- Wildfires in New South Wales, Australia, summer 2003. island effect. (These same measures would stimulate Image: CSIRO Forestry and Forests Products Bushfire Behaviour and Management Group production and open markets for alternative and energy-efficient energy technologies. They are examples of harmonizing adaptation and mitigation. See Part III for CASE 2. ANALOG FOR NEW further discussion.) SOUTH WALES, AUSTRALIA Geetha Ranmuthugala STRUCTURAL MEASURES INCLUDE: Anthony J McMichael Tord Kjellstrom • “Green buildings,” with relevant building codes and insurance policies BACKGROUND • Roof gardens to absorb heat • Tree-lined streets to absorb heat EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS EXTREME WEATHER Heat, drought, and bushfires are not new to Australia. | • Adequate public transport systems to decrease traffic congestion Between 1967 and 1999, bushfires in Australia result- 58 ed in 223 deaths and 4,185 injuries with a cost of • Bicycle and walking paths over US $2.5 billion, not including timber losses. The • “Smart growth” of urban and suburban areas drought in southeastern Australia in the austral summer to minimize commutes of 2003 was particularly intense and sparked wide- • Hybrid and renewable energy-powered vehicles to spread fires. The January fires alone destroyed over reduce pollution. 500 homes, claimed four lives in Canberra and caused over US $300 million in damages (Australian OTHER MEASURES INCLUDE: Government 2004).

• Improved power grids The heat wave that Europe experienced during August • “Smart” technologies that improve efficiency of utility 2003 revealed the susceptibility of even the industrial grids by favoring high-use areas during specific affluent world, rich in infrastructure, when maximum hours of the day temperatures soared to 10°C above the historical aver- • Distributed power generation to complement and age, and minimum temperatures reached record high supplement grids (discussed in Part III). levels. In July 1995, the heat wave in Chicago (USA), where maximum temperatures ranged between 33.9°C and 40.0°C, resulted in an excess of 700 RESEARCH IMPLICATIONS heat-attributable deaths, an 85% increase in mortality compared to the previous year (CDC 1995). What Questions remain regarding agricultural yields in would be the impact on mortality if Australia were to response to such an extreme summer; how these con- experience a heat wave similar to that of the European

CASE STUDIES ditions would impact water resources, livestock, wild summer of 2003? Part2a.qxd 9/27/0612:54PMPage59 al. 1998a,b),hasalsobeen showntocompoundthe disease(Simpson etal.1997;Morgan respiratory Ozone, whileshowntoincreasedeathsfromcardio- levels ofphotochemicalozone(Fialaetal.2003). ly inurbanareas,wasamplifiedbycoexistenthigh excessinFrance,especial- The August2003mortality wise expectedinurbanNSWduringa14-dayperiod. 647 deathsoverandabovethe1,176 deathsother- mately 5,200,000,weestimateanoverallexcessof deaths per100,000,andapopulationofapproxi- rate forurbanNSWof591 given anannualmortality thatFranceexperienced, with thevariationsfromnorm (InVS 2003).IfNSWweretoexperienceaheat-wave comparedtotheprecedingyear increase inmortality perature overa14-dayperiodresultedin55% capital. InFrance,anapproximate10°Criseintem- which includesSydney, Australia’s largestcityandthe scenario wasdevelopedforurbanNewSouthWales, Based onthe2003Frenchheatwave,ahypothetical Wales, Australia? of 2003cametoNewSouth What ifEurope’s extremesummer maximum temperaturesexceeding35°C. upward trendinthenumberofdaysperyearwith 1964–2002 indicatesthattherehasbeenamodest fortheperiod Meteorology forSydneyairport records fromtheCommonwealthBureauof 2002). Meanwhile,analysisofdailytemperature mum summertemperatures(BureauofMeteorology 2002, SouthAustraliarecordedthehighestevermaxi- mean)beingrecorded(NCDC2003).In long term second highestlandtemperatures(0.96°Cabovethe and extremehotdays.Globally, June2003sawthe proceeds,wewillfacemorefrequent global warming recent extremeclimateoccurrencessuggestthat,as While heatwavesarenotinfrequentinAustralia, 2003). Australia thananyothernaturalweatherhazard(EMA in have causedmorefatalitiesduringthe20thcentury waves (BureauofMeteorology2003).Heat non, whichalsoinfluencestheoccurrenceofheat Oscillation(ENSO)phenome- the ElNiño/Southern by south, andisoneofthecontinentsmostaffected tothetemperate fromthetropicalnorth tions, varying Australia experiencesawiderangeofclimaticcondi- THE ROLE OFCLIMATE waves inAustraliawillincreasewithtime. factors, itisnotunlikelythattheadverseimpactofheat eleven daysby2070(CSIRO2001).Givenallthese Sydney willincreasefromcurrenttwodaysupto dictions thatthenumberofsummerdaysover35°Cin Australia isalsoexperiencingmorehotdays,withpre- ceptibility totheimpactsofheatwaves. to 19in2001(NSWH2003).Thisincr average) wasexceededhasrisenfromzeroin1995 chemical ozonestandard(0.10ppmforaone-hour ple, theannualnumberofdaysonwhichphoto- note theconditionsarechanging.InSydney, forexam- to standards,itisimportant tively goodbyinternational WhiletheairqualityinAustraliaisrela- island effect. to beexposedairpollutantsandtheurbanheat- ofthepopulationislikely means thatahighproportion lation livinginanurbanlocation(UNCHS2001).This of urbanization,withanestimated84.7%thepopu- ofheatwaves.Australiaalsohasahighlevel effects been identifiedasbeingmoresusceptibletothe cardiovascular disease,andpeoplelivingalone,have increase. Elderlywithunderlyingdisease,particularly occurrence ofchronicdiseaseandco-morbidities (AIHW 1999).Withincreasingnumbersofelderly, the future. Forexample,Australiahasanagingpopulation contribute toincreasedimpactsinthepresentand However, factorsthatarelikelyto therearecertain (Pattenden etal.2003;Huynen2001). have typicallycaused10-20%excessdeaths oftheworld waves inothernearbyorsimilarparts heat wavesinAustralia.Historically, severeheat much greaterthanthatusuallyexperiencedinpast withintherange25-55%wouldbe An excessmortality 2003). et al.2001;Hajat20002;Pattenden ous temperate-zonecities(Halesetal.2000;Huynen previouslypublishedforvari- ty dose-responsecurves at thehightemperatureendoftemperature-mortali- and ourfiguresaccordwiththeincrementalrisksseen wouldbeless tion, theexpectedimpactonmortality Wales werenotaccompaniedbyincreasedairpollu- hypothetical extremeheatwaveinurbanNewSouth 1994).If(perhapsunusually)the al. 2003;Sartor impacts ofheat(Katsouyannietal.1993;Rainham eases thesus-

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CASE STUDIES 60 | EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS San Marco Square now floods many times each year. each times many floods now Square Marco San San MarcoSquare,Venice, Italy Europe. Duringthepasttwodecades,severalextreme Floods arethemostcommonnaturaldisasterin (EM-DAT/CRED 2005). regionswithmorethan1.2billionpeople affecting 2,257 disasters),killingalmost100,000peopleand quent naturalweatherdisasterwasflooding(43%of Themostfre- est/scrub fires,cyclonesandwindstorms. droughts/famines, extremetemperature,floods,for- extremeweatherevents,including reported Worldwide, from1992to2001,therewere2,257 BACKGROUND Kristie L.Ebi IN EUROPE FOCUS ONTHE2002FLOODS FLOODS Image: Corbis Image: fatalities resultedfromdrowning(MunichReNatCat Sea coastandSlovakia.Itwasestimatedthat80-100 andcentralItaly,northern Spain,theBlack northeast includedthoseabove,plusFrance, The regionsaffected flooding insurroundinglow-lyingareas. with extremelyhighwaterlevelscausingwidespread including theDanube,Elbe,Vltava,InnandSalzach, onseveralmajorrivers, Floodwavesformed Service). in thesouthwestCzechRepublic(MunichReNatCat Germany, andsouthern eastern and Austria,Hungary on6Augustin and widespreadprecipitationstarted Heavy were thethreecountriesmostseverelyaffected. 2002). Germany, theCzechRepublicandAustria heritage (CommissionoftheEuropeanCommunities structure, anddestructionofthenaturalcultural lives, extensivedamagetothesocioeconomicinfra- withscoresofpeoplelosingtheir dented proportions, The 2002floodinginCentralEuropewasofunprece- (Commission oftheEuropeanCommunities2002). reaching apeakwaterlevelof9.4meters(31 feet) flood exceededlevelsnotseensincethe13thcentury, ages ofthemagnitudeseeninAugust2002Elbe oftheDanubebasin.Flooddam- River basinandparts ing inthedisastrousAugust2002floodElbe ing theRhine,Meuse,Po,OdraandWisla,culminat- floods haveoccurredinCentralEuropeanrivers,includ- Part2a.qxd 9/27/06 12:54 PM Page 61

Service). Since 2002, severe floods have continued to When drought precedes heavy rains, dry soils set the affect Europe. Parts of the UK have suffered repeated stage for extensive flooding. In addition, arid condi- flooding (see Foresight Commission Report discussed tions mean less absorption and recharge of aquifers. below). In the summer of 2005, following a deep Thus swings of weather from one extreme to the other drought across central and southern Europe, heavy rains can have the greatest immediate consequences and led to severe floods, killing over 45 persons and caus- affect long-term vulnerabilities. ing extensive damage. Switzerland was heavily affected. HEALTH AND ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS THE ROLE OF CLIMATE The health impacts from the 2002 European floods The Third Assessment Report of the IPCC concluded included 82 known drownings, several infectious dis- that by 2100 the general pattern of changes in annual ease outbreaks and reports of extensive anxiety and precipitation over Europe would mean widespread depression (Hajat et al. 2003). increases in northern Europe (between +1 and +2% per decade), smaller decreases across southern EFFECTS ON DRINKING WATER QUALITY Europe (maximum –1% per decade), and small or ambiguous changes in central Europe (that is, France, Private water wells and open drinking-water reservoirs Germany, Hungary; Kundzewicz and Parry 2001). are particularly vulnerable to contamination from The climate change projections suggest a marked con- floods, but other types of public water systems can trast between winter and summer patterns of precipita- also be affected. This can lead to an array of gastroin- tion change. Most of Europe is projected to become testinal infections. wetter during the winter season (+1 to +4% per decade), with the exception of the Balkans and Turkey, Outbreaks of shigella dysentery were reported after where winters are projected to become drier. In sum- the 2002 floods in Europe (Tuffs and Bosch 2002). mer, there is a projected strong gradient of change Also, the Russian Federation reported outbreaks in sev- between northern Europe (increasing precipitation by eral territories of acute enteric infections and viral hepa- as much as 2% per decade) and southern Europe (dry- titis A (Kalashnikov et al. 2003). ing as much as 5% per decade). Previous floods in Europe have been associated with

The European project PRUDENCE used a high-resolu- outbreaks of noroviral, rotaviral and campylobacter EVENTS EXTREME WEATHER tion climate model to quantify the influence of anthro- infections (Kukkula et al. 1997; Miettinen et al. 2001). |

pogenic climate change on heavy or extended sum- 61 mer time precipitation events lasting for one to five RODENT-BORNE INFECTIONS days. These types of events historically have inflicted AND OTHER ZOONOSES catastrophic flooding (Christensen and Christensen 2003). During the months of July to September, Outbreaks of leptospirosis — transmitted through con- increases in the amount of precipitation that exceed tact with animal urine or tissue or water contaminated the 95th percentile are projected to be very likely in by infected animals — were associated with the floods many areas of Europe, despite a possible reduction in in 2002 when rodents fled their flooded burrows and average summer precipitation over a substantial part moved closer to human dwellings (Mezentsev et al. of the continent. Consequently, the episodes of severe 2003). (Leptospira outbreaks also followed the 1997 flooding may become more frequent even with gener- spring floods in the Czech Republic and the Russian ally drier summer conditions. Changes in overall flood Federation; Kriz 1998; Kalashnikov et al. 2003.) frequency will depend on the generating mechanisms Another zoonosis associated with the 2002 floods — floods that are the result of heavy rainfall may was rabbit-borne tularemia (Briukhanov et al. 2003). increase while those generated by spring snowmelt and ice jams may decrease. CASE STUDIES Part2a.qxd 9/27/0612:54PMPage62

CASE STUDIES 62 | EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS lowing aflood(Greenetal.1985). cal problemsamongfloodvictimsinthefiveyearsfol- ofincreasedpsychologi- study foundaconsistentpattern severe symptomsofstress(Bechtetal.1998).AUK severe stresssymptomsand15%ofadultshadvery flood foundthat15-20%ofchildrenhadmoderateto health andwell-beingofpeoplesixmonthsfollowinga logical symptoms.AstudyintheNetherlandson years ofagewereatsignificantlyhighriskforpsycho- men withlowoccupationalstatusandindividuals55-64 1990). AstudyintheUS(Phiferetal.1988)foundthat the eventitselfforothers(Bennet1970;Sartorius losses canbedevastatingforsomeandlastlongpast The mentalhealthimpactsoffloodingstemmingfromthe MENTAL HEALTH Federation. investigation bytheCzechRepublicandRussian ing. Thesehealthandecologicalissuesareunder delays. Theimpactsonwildlifecanalsobedebilitat- cognitiveanddevelopmental can causelong-term andcadmium— Heavy metals—suchasmercury can becarcinogensandsuppresstheimmunesystem. petrochemicals arepersistentorganicpollutantsthat Manypesticidesand soils, aquifersandwaterways. Floods alsoflushtoxicchemicalsandheavymetalsinto (Buravtseva etal.2002). been associatedwithfloodsintheRussianFederation In addition,outbreaksofanthrax(soil-based)have (Weissenböck etal.2002;Buckley2003). emerged UsutuvirusofthesamefamilyasWest Nile ing, includingSindbisandBataiviruses,thenewly diseaseoutbreaksinEuropeafterflood- mosquito-borne (Hubalek etal.2004).Thereisthepotentialforother occurred intheCzechRepublicafter2002floods An outbreakofValtice fever(causedbyTahyna virus) Europe (Hubaleketal.1999). ed thefirstcasesofWest NilevirustooccurinCentral ofCzechRepublicafterthe1997floodsdetect- parts ofthepopulationinflooded floods. Surveillance of Mosquito populationsflourishintheaftermath MOSQUITO- ANDSOIL-BORNEDISEASES which US$1billionwasinsured(MunichRe2003). fatalities andUS$1.5billionineconomiclosses,of Flooding inFrancethefollowingyearresultedseven (MunichRe2003). over US$9billioninGermany approximately US$3billionintheCzechRepublicand Rough costestimatesfortheElbe2002floodaloneare lowing the1997floodsonOdraandMorava. Czech Republicthedemandforinsuranceincreasedfol- were notwillingtopayforpremiums.Incontrast,inthe ple withthisinsurancedeclined.Inmanyplaces,people other naturalhazards.Inthe1990s,numberofpeo- holders hadtakenoutstateinsuranceagainstfloodand reunification,almostallhouse- 2003). PriortoGerman wasabout20%(MunichRe insured lossesinGermany of bridges andotherinfrastructure.Theproportion facilities suchasroads,railwaylines,dikes,riverbeds, The majorityofeconomiclossesin2002werepublic impacts offloods(KetteridgeandFordham1995). in order. Thelackofinsurancemayexacerbatethe ciated untilafterpeople’s homeshavebeenputback isnotappre- impact ofafloodoftenformanyaffected rence oftheevent(Tapsell etal.2003).Thefull andanxietyabouttheriskofrecur- and (3)theworry period, the disruptionandproblemsofrecovery the sourcesofstressincluding:(1)eventitself,(2) Floods shouldberegardedasmulti-strikestressors,with plans andwhatprivateinsurerscover. healthinsurance to region,dependingongovernment tocountry, fromcountry region ance sectormayvary of soilsorlosstopsoil.Theimplicationsfortheinsur- food productioninsubsequentyearsviacontamination ple, cancauseimmediatecropdamageandaffect after theevent.Damagetoagriculturalland,forexam- developmentlong The economicdamagescanaffect coming intocontactwithbuildingsandtheircontents. offloodwater than indicatedbythephysicaleffects systems. Theeconomicconsequencesareoftengreater supply systems,watersuppliesandsewagedisposal electricity ing disruptiontoroads,raillines,airports, Floods oftencausemajorinfrastructuredamage,includ- DIMENSIONS ECONOMIC Part2a.qxd 9/27/06 12:54 PM Page 63

Table 2.1 Economic Losses in European Nations in Euros from Flooding in 2002

Eco nomic Losses Insured Losses (approx.)

Austria 2-3 bn 400 m

Czech Republic 2-3 bn 900 m

Germany 9.2 bn 1.8 bn

Europe > 15 bn 3.1 bn

Between June and December 2002 the Euro exchange rate varied, with the lowest rates noted in December 2002 when 1 Euro = 0.93537 USD and the highest rate in June when 1 Euro = 1.068 USD.

THE FUTURE the need for medical and social support in the immediate aftermath and during the recovery period. CCF-I: ESCALATING IMPACTS EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

Floods are taking an enormous toll on lives and infra- Climate forecasting can improve preparation for natural structure in developed and developing countries. The disasters. Specific measures include: Foresight Report on Future Flooding commissioned by the UK government (Clery 2004) concluded that the • Movement of populations to higher ground. number of Britons at risk from flooding could swell from • Use of levees and sandbags. 1.6 million to 3.6 million, and that the annual damages • Organizing boats for transport and rescue. from flooding could soar from the current annual figure • Storage of food, water and medicines. of US $2.4 billion to about US $48 billion — 20 times greater — in the coming decades if construction meas- In countries where flood risk is likely to increase, a com- ures are not taken to meet the challenge. prehensive vulnerability-based emergency management program of preparedness, response and recovery has CCF-II: SURPRISE IMPACTS the potential to reduce the adverse health impacts of

floods. These plans need to be formulated at local, EVENTS EXTREME WEATHER

Just as with heat waves, the return periods for heavy regional and national levels and include activities to | precipitation and extensive flooding events may

decrease vulnerabilities before, during and after floods. 63 decrease markedly in Europe, Asia, Africa, and in the Americas (Katz 1999). Repeated flooding will chal- GENERAL MEASURES lenge the recovery capacities of even the apparently least vulnerable nations. • Appropriate housing and commercial development policies. Prolonged, repeated and extensive flooding — along • Transportation systems tailored to protect open space, with melting of glaciers — can undermine infrastructure, forests, wetlands and shorelines. (Forests act as cause extensive damage to homes and spread molds, sponges for precipitation; riparian (riverside) stands inundate and spread fungal diseases in croplands, and protect watersheds; and wetlands absorb runoff and alter the integrity of landscapes. Runoff of nutrients from filter discharges flowing into bays and estuaries.) farms and sewage threaten to substantially swell the 150 • Livestock farming practices (especially Concentrated “dead zones” now forming in coastal waters worldwide Animal Feeding Operations or CAFOs) must be regu- (UNEP 2005). lated and properly buffered (for example, surrounded by wetlands) to reduce wastes discharged into waterways during floods (see Townsend et al. 2003). SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS • Insurance policies can directly incorporate the potential for flooding, especially where it has previously Research is needed to better understand the immediate occurred, to reduce the number of people and struc- and chronic physical and mental health impacts of tures “in harm’s way.” floods. Better disease surveillance is needed during • Economic and social incentives are needed to resettle and after flooding, especially for long-term populations away from flood plains. CASE STUDIES psycho/social impacts as a result of great losses and Part2a.qxd 9/27/0612:54PMPage64

CASE STUDIES 64 | EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS Source: Menne et al., 2000. Floods and public health consequences, prevention and control measures. measures. control and prevention consequences, health public and Floods 2000. al., et Menne Source: Table 2.2DirectandIndirectHealthEffectsofFloods UN, 2000. (MP.WAT/SEM.2/1999/22) 2000. UN, De ra feat Dama Clea Di Rode S U Di Dama Indirect effects I Co Co S Direct effects “ la of floodo of property, job s su su a a g water n n ite n n a ta tream flowvelocity;topo n n crea ng ormal” health s s pply forwa pply ofdri s d d frie s s n n der d r r n s tora oli u tr u u tact withpoll tact withwater s s e ofvectorhabitat n di ; relea re u ptio ptio n lide s ewa - n g g g s ng ctio u carryi t mi s e e tohealth e towater ro e ofphy g n p activitie ; ab e ta d n s water n s ns un g n ; ri s of oftra tora g e di s ofprimary foodprod ratio et; deepfloodwater d pipedi s e ofchemical n s s n ng e s s ki k behavior;fa a k g n ocial hi s s ng s bo e ta s n ce ofwar po s n ns ; overflowoftoxic-wa ng ; heavyrai ical a u d family member family d ervice activitie

s water;i su ted water Ca Ca s port followi u s

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Part2b.qxd 9/27/0612:56PMPage65 Pines. Anotherspecies( Lodgepole, Ponderosa,Sugar, andWestern White targetsare America,anditsprimary North ern trees. In California, trees. InCalifornia, Meanwhile, otherpestsandpathogensareinfecting 2000). (Malmstrom andRaff damage andattacksbothstressedunstressedtrees Alaska. Themountainpinebarkbeetle( Spruce treesthatgrowfromtheSouthwestUSto being decimatedbyanaphid-like bugcalledthe US,hemlock conifersare extremes. IntheNortheast may havebeenweakenedby repetitiveweather famine, iscausing“suddenoakdeath”intreesthat fungusresponsiblefortheIrishpotato opportunistic spruce beetle( etal.2002). In Eurasia,theEuropean (Haberkern beetle infestationsintheGreatLakesRegion Two beetlespeciesaccountforover90%ofthebark pine beetleattackstreesduringdroughtconditions. temperate regionsintheUSandabroad.Thesouthern Similar infestationsareoccurringelsewhereinother susceptibility toforestfiresfromArizonaAlaska. fire suppressionforestmanagement,haveincreased America. Theseinfestations,coupledwithdecadesof tion ofmillionsacrespinetreesinWestern North past decade,thesebeetleshavecausedthedestruc- Hopkins) attacksDouglasFirspreferentially. Duringthe damaging isthesprucebarkbeetle( increased treedevastationbyinsects.Amongthemost isupsettingthatbalanceandleadingto warming other animalsinforestedecosystems.Now, global A delicatebalanceexistsbetweentrees,insectsand BACKGROUND Evan Mills TaborGary Paul Epstein DROUGHT, BEETLESANDWILDFIRES FORESTS NATURAL ANDMANAGEDSYSTEMS rufipennis, ponderosa ) isanothermainpestofpinetreesinwest- Kirby) thatprimarilyattacksEngelmann Ips typographaphus Ips Phytophthora Dendroctonus pseudotsugae, Dendroctonus , arelativeofthe ) doesthemost Dendroctonus Dendroctonus mature treesoverawidespread area. surpassing 90%of 2002 and2003,withmortality New Mexico,piñonpinewas severelyimpactedin rates ofsoilerosion(Burkettetal. drought directly affected ponderosapines( drought directlyaffected tality acrosstheregion.Theprolongedandsevere surge inbarkbeetleinfestationsandextensivetreemor- winters(leavinglittlesnowpack)havefacilitateda dry Southwest from1996-2003andtheseriesofwarm, ofthemulti-yeardroughtinUS The cumulativeeffect Stark 2005). higher elevations(8,000feetorhigher)(Stark2002; have attackedWhitebarkPinestandsthatgrowat mountain pinebarkbeetle;since1998,thebeetles tles. LodgepolePinesarethepreferredtargetof 2002). Warming isalsoexpandingtherangeofbee- million acresofforestsontheKenaiPeninsula(Egan ing (Van Sickle1995).There,theyhavestrippedfour ations andtheirlifecycleisacceleratingduetowarm- Alaska, sprucebarkbeetlesaregettinginextragener- annum tolessthan10%(Holstenetal.2000).In inWyoming,forexample,from80%per beetle larvae of Since 1994,mildwintershavecutwintermortality year. their predators.Beetlepopulationscanquadrupleina result thatbeetlepopulationgrowthoutpacesof withthe winters, thebeetlereproductivecycleshortens, ing simultaneouslyencouragesthepests.Withwarmer While droughtstressweakensthehosts(trees),warm- dle thetree,leadingtotree’s death. thatfeedontheinnerbarkandgir- hatch intolarvae decay. Thebeetlesthenproducegalleriesofeggsthat penetrating beetlesintroducethefungusthatcauses 1985). However, droughtdiminishesresinflow, and the funguscarriedbybeetles(Warring andPitman bark. Trees alsoallocatesugarstocoatandwalloff with resin(orpitch)astheyattempttoborethroughthe keep beetlepopulationsincheckbydrowningthem and Hack1987;Boyer1995).Normally, treescan become susceptibletopests(Kalkstein1976;Mattson When weakenedbydroughtandwiltedheat,trees THE ROLE OFCLIMATE pers. comm.,2005). ters (Parkeretal.1998;D.Foster, Forest, Harvard win- withwarmer adelgid thatismigratingnorthward Juniperus monosperma Juniperus derosa ), piñon-juniperwoodlands( ) andothertrees,increased in press in Pinus edulis Pinus ). Innorthern Pinus pon- Pinus and

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CASE STUDIES 66 | NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMS Massachusetts, and has moved into southern New Massachusetts, andhasmoved intosouthern Hemlock treesinConnecticut, RhodeIslandand, today. Thisaphid-likebughasalready infectedEastern Wooly adelgidposesarisktoNewEnglandforests Hemlock Wooly Adelgid beetles. bark with infested trees spruce of stands Dead Figure 2.22SpruceTrees diebacks andfire,arenotwellunderstood. cumbed tobeetleinfestations,withresultinglarge-scale of largeareasborealspruceforeststhathavesuc- regimes andtotheglobalclimatesystem.Theresilience forestsareintegraltolocalclimate cloud formation, tion (evaporation,andtranspirationthroughleaves) watersheds, cleanwater. Assourcesofevaporanspira- lizers ofsoils,habitatforwildlifeand,viaextensive oxygen, catchments(“sponges”)forfloodwaters,stabi- es theyprovide:asinkforcarbondioxide,sourceof Losing foreststofirealsothreatenstheecologicalservic- products (primarilyfrombuildings)arecarcinogenic. andlungdisease.Somefireby- hazes causeheart andchemicalsfromblazeswind-carried particles immediate threatstofirefightersandhomeowners, buildup, extensive,cataclysmic-scalewildfirespose onvegetationandinsect and canhavepositiveeffects and responsesystems.Whilesomefiresarenatural and people,theyplacedemandsonpublichealth drought. Wildfiresarehazardousforwildlife,property vulnerableduring wildfires andareparticularly superabundant kindlingforlightningorhuman-induced stands (Holstenetal.2000).Thedeadprovide forestwithsubstantialspruce Arizona andinevery fromAlaskato extensive damageandmortality Outbreaks ofthesprucebarkbeetlehavecaused IMPLICATIONS HEALTH ANDECOLOGICAL Image: Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service Forest Canadian Canada, Resources Natural Image: Image: Dr. Mark McClure, CT Agricultural Experiment Station Experiment Agricultural CT McClure, Mark Dr. Image: Figure 2.23HemlockWooly Adelgid 2000; Snyderetal.2002;Ross2003). andFoster their lossisunderintensestudy(Orwig gen tothestreamsandtributaries,impactsof Hemlocks die,theirneedlesaddlargeamountsofnitro- the deepforeststreamstheyline.Whenstandsof in winterandthepineneedlestheyshednourishfish of mountains.Theirarborsareumbrellasforrestingdeer Hemlocks colonizepoorsoilsandscrambletothecrests Hemlockconifersplayuniqueecologicalroles. Eastern than US$3billion(Flam2004). Thelossoftreecover In thesummerandfallof2003 thewildfirescostmore ing marketfortwoyears(The Economist9Aug2003). build 3.3millionhomesorsupplytheentireUShous- pole pinehavebecomeinfested—enoughtimberto In BritishColumbia,nearly22millionacresofLodge and thesameinBritishColumbia. estimates ofoverthreebillionboardfeetlostinAlaska, been recordedinMontana,IdahoandArizona,with feet ofsprucesawtimberannually. Similarlosses have have amountedto333million500board and killedover3,000,000sprucetrees.Thelosses spruce beetlehasinfestedmorethan122,000acres ground, isadevastatedforestzone.InUtah,the The KenaiPeninsulainAlaska,Anchorage’s play- 30 milliontreesperyearatthepeakofoutbreak. 1993 to2000andtheinfestationkilledanestimated acres ofspruceforestswereinfestedinAlaskafrom (Holstenetal.2000),morethan2.3million Service ofAgricultureForest According totheUSDepartment DIMENSIONS ECONOMIC tocontroltheinfestation. to try Frederick LawOlmstead,havebeendrasticallyculled Those treesinBoston’s historicArboretum,designedby winter. witheachwarm Hampshire. Itismovingnorth Part2b.qxd 9/27/06 12:57 PM Page 67

created unstable conditions conducive to mudslides Figure 2.25 Annual Area of Northern Boreal Forest Burned and avalanches in subsequent seasons, and these in North America caused property damages and the loss of life. 20 18 Annual 10-year average 16 The implications of the forest changes and tree infesta- 14

tions include losses for several industries: food industries 12

(for example, citrus); tourism, due to reduced scenic 10 quality; maple syrup production; property damage; 8 and business interruptions from wildfires; loss of hydro- 6 electric power from degradation of watersheds; con- Area Burned (million acres) 4 2 straints on areas suitable for development, and vulnera- 0 bility to landslides due to loss of forests and erosion 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 caused by the fires and fire-control activities. Source: National Assessment of Climate Change: Impacts on the Figure 2.24 Bark Beetles United States.

According to the Insurance Services Office (1997), wildfires are a pervasive insurance risk, occurring in every state in 1996. Wildfires consume an average of 5 million acres per year across the United States. Between 1985 and 1994, wildfires destroyed more than 9,000 homes in the United States at an average insured cost of about US $300 million per year. By comparison, this was triple the attributable number of homes lost during the three-decade period prior to 1985. Some of this increase is attributed to new home developments in high-risk areas. Bark beetles can bore through spruce tree bark when drought dries the resin that forms its natural defense. The Oakland/Berkeley Tunnel Fire of 1991 was a Image: Rick Delaco, Ruidoso Forestry Department poignant example of the enormous damage potential WILDFIRES of even a single wildfire. The third costliest fire in US

history, it resulted in US $2.4 billion in insured losses AND MANAGED SYSTEMS NATURAL

(at 2004 prices; Swiss Re 2005a), including the | Wildfire is an important outcome of the dynamics of climate and forest health. Climate-related influences destruction of 3,400 buildings and 2,000 cars (ISO 67 include drought, reduced fuel moisture content, 1997). Added to this were extensive losses of urban changes in wind patterns, shifts in vegetation patterns, infrastructure, such as phone lines, roads and water and increased lightning (an important source of ignition). systems. The insured losses from this single fire were twice the cumulative amount experienced nationwide Consequences for humans include the costs of fire sup- during the previous 30 years. Swiss Re (1992) and pression, property loss, damage to economically valu- Lloyd’s of London pointed to global climate changes as able forests (some of which are insured), and adverse one possible factor influencing the degree of devasta- impacts on respiratory health arising from increased tion wrought by this and subsequent wildfires. particulates introduced into air-sheds during fires. As seen in the winter following the large Southern California wildfires of 2003, there can be important The total US losses from catastrophic wildfires (a subset indirect impacts, also exacerbated by climate change, of the total defined in terms of events tabulated by the such as severe floods and mudflows that arise when Property Claims Services) was US $6.5 billion (US $ torrential rains fall on denuded forestlands. 2004) between 1970 and 2004, corresponding to an average insured loss of just over US $400 million A distinct upward trend in wildfire has been observed, per fire (Insurance Information Institute). as measured in terms of average number of acres of Northern boreal forest burned (a doubling since – E.M. the 1940s) and peak years (a fourfold increase since

the 1940s). CASE STUDIES Part2b.qxd 9/27/0612:57PMPage68

CASE STUDIES 68 | NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMS continue todeteriorate. drawing downcarbon;andproducingoxygen)will sumption, agricultureandenergy;absorbingpollutants; habitat andforestfunctions(watersuppliesforcon- check. Theecologicalimplicationsforessentialforest have co-evolvedandkeeppopulationsofpestsin (for example,birdsandleaf-eatingcaterpillars)that wildfires candisruptcommunitiesofpredatorsandprey changes asaresultofhumanactivitiesandspreading tree defensesagainstpests.Meanwhile,land-use weaken forests, andmoreharshweatherwillfurther favorsmorefungalandinsectof Continued warming CCF-I: ESCALATING IMPACTS THE FUTURE • • • • Florida experiencedarashofwildfires. diseases.IntheUS, acute andchronicrespiratory of tollsinterms Asia andBrazil,eachtakingenormous followed bywidespread,devastatingfiresinSoutheast was demonstratedafterdroughtslinkedtoElNiñowere impactthatclimaticanomaliescanhave The powerful Niño events,basedonrecordsdatingbackto1887. with anincreasedfrequency, intensityanddurationofEl oftheanomalousperiodfrom1976-98 This waspart El Niñoof1997/98,thestrongest20thcentury. wererekindledin1998bytheimpactsof warming overthefire-relatedconsequencesofglobal Concerns THE 1997/98 ELNIÑOEVENT and 37%increaseinchestpain. gency visitsforasthma,132%increaseinbronchitis In Florida,US,therewasa91%increaseinemer- diseases. increase inoutpatientvisitsforrespiratory In AltaFloresta,Brazil,therewasatwentyfold 2005). wereestimatedtobeUS$9.3billion(Arnold port ofproperty,in terms agricultureanddisruptedtrans- In Indonesia,40,000werehospitalizedandlosses carried plumesthousandsofmiles. diseases,aswinds outpatient visitsforrespiratory In Malaysia,therewasatwo-to-threefoldincreasein – P.E. jack pine( Saskatchewan, whicharepopulatedbysusceptible and Alberta Adjacent borealforestsinnorthern expansionofthemountainpinebeetle. northward elevations oftheRockyMountains)thatonceprevented ecological barriers(non-forestedprairiesandthehigh demonstratethatclimatechangeiserodingthe Service, bytheCanadianForest British Columbia,performed Empirical datacombinedwithpredictivemodelingin ble vegetationtypes(typicallygrasses). and shiftsinpost-fireplantregimestowardsmoreflamma- causeofwildfireignitions) lightning activity(theprimary factors,suchasbeetleinfestations,increased important suppression resources,butexcludetheimpactsofseveral figure 2.25).Theresultsincludefulluseofexistingfire Sustainable ResourceDevelopment 2003). Cerezke 1995;Carrolletal. 2003;Alberta andSchenk1969; SafranyikandLinton1982; (Furniss next large-scaleemergencezoneofthebeetleadvance escaped firesunderadoubledCO types, resultinginmorethanadoublingofcatastrophic firesinmost vegetation be associatedwithfasterburning in Eureka.Accordingtothisanalysis,climatechangewill ropolitan area,andtheredwoodregion'surbancenter gins oftheSanFranciscoBayarea,Sacramentomet- withurbanareasonthemar- of wildlandsthatinterface al. 2004).Theregionsstudiedincludesubstantialareas tion modelofglobalclimate(Torn etal.1998;Fried the GoddardInstituteforSpaceSciencesgeneralcircula- wildfiremodelswith ofForestry Department California havecoupled services forestry California Northern California. in zones vegetation and as climate well as major burned) three for (acres scenario wildfires contained for results shows Chart Figure 2.26RisingCO Some subregions exhibited up to a four fold increase in damages. in increase fold four a to up CO double exhibited a under subregions fires) of Some (number fires “escaped” catastrophic Results calculated by coupling climate models with California with models climate coupling by calculated Results Department of Forestry wildfire models, assuming full deployment of deployment full assuming models, wildfire Forestry of Department existing suppression resources. suppression existing 100% 120% 140% Source: Tom et al.1998 et Tom Source:

-20% Change 20% 40% 60% 80% 0% Pinus banksiana Pinus at lr mdrE oaoHumbolt Amador-ElDorado Santa Clara Escapes Acreage Burned 2 and Wildfires Firefighting Region , Lamb) may serve asthe , Lamb)mayserve 2 environment. (see 2 Part2b.qxd 9/27/06 12:57 PM Page 69

Climate research has already identified profound impacts kills trees. Multiplying bark beetle populations then kill of global warming on the ecological integrity of North more trees, leading to further increases in beetle popu- America’s vast boreal forest. Expansion by the beetle into lations (Caroll et al. 2004). Bark beetles selectively kill new habitats as global warming continues will provide it large, slow growing trees; thus the process alters the a small, continual supply of mature pine, thereby main- size and age diversity of forests, rendering them ever taining populations at above-normal levels for some more vulnerable to parasitism and disease (Swetnam decades into the future. The bark beetle outbreak accel- and Betancourt 1998). Reduced ground cover also erates the time scale of change significantly. triggers nonlinear increases in soil erosion rates (Davenport et al. 1998; Wilcox et al. 2003). EXPANDING RANGE OF SPRUCE BARK BEETLES Changes in patterns of disturbances from fire, insect Historically, mountain pine beetle populations have outbreaks and soil erosion could produce rapid and been most common in southern British Columbia. Non- extensive reduction in woody species globally, as forested prairies and the high elevations of the Rocky diebacks outpace forest regrowth (Allen and Breshears Mountains have contributed to confining it to that distri- 1998; IPCC 2001c; Allen and Breshears in press). As bution. With the substantial shift by mountain pine bee- forests and shrubs are the primary terrestrial carbon tle populations into formerly unsuitable habitats during sink, extensive fires and losses will add substantially to the past 30 years, it is likely that the beetle will soon the atmospheric accumulation of carbon dioxide, overcome the natural barrier of high mountains as cli- adding to accelerating global warming. mate change proceeds. Perhaps, as evidence of this shift in recent years, small but persistent mountain pine SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS beetle populations have been detected along the northeastern slopes of the Rockies in Alberta — areas in Unfortunately, little can be done to directly control bark which the beetle has not been previously recorded beetles. Selectively removing trees or spraying pesti- (Alberta Sustainable Resource Development 2003). The cides at early stages can help limit spread, but signs of northern half of Alberta and Saskatchewan is forested infestations are often not recognized until the late by jack pine, Pinus banksiana, Lamb, a susceptible stages. Pesticides, which enter ground and surface species (Furniss and Schenk 1969; Safranyik and waters, are minimally effective and must be applied Linton 1982; Cerezke 1995) that may soon come in widely long before beetles awaken in the spring. The contact with mountain pine beetles. Indeed, with a con- scale of the bark beetle outbreak in Canada is so servative increase in average global temperature of extensive that there is more standing dead timber than

2.5°C (4.5°F) associated with a doubling of atmos- there is capacity to log the forests. AND MANAGED SYSTEMS NATURAL

pheric CO2, Logan and Powell (2001) predict a latitu- |

dinal shift of more than 7°N in the distribution of ther- Note: The clear-cutting form of forest “thinning” benefits 69 mally suitable habitats for mountain pine beetles. the timber industry in the short term, but these practices damage soils, increase sedimentation in watersheds, CCF-II: SURPRISE IMPACTS reduce water-holding capacity and dry up rivers and streams — all increasing subsequent vulnerability to Rapid, widespread climate- and disease-induced forest pest infestations, fires and flooding. dieback is a plausible scenario for forests in many regions. Tropical rainforests are already losing ground Regulation of the trade and movement of plants can help due to logging, road-building, land-clearing for agricul- limit the spread of some diseases. This measure is being ture, fires purposely set for farming and shifts in the employed to try to limit the spread of Phytophthora. regional hydrological regime that accompany the loss and fragmentation of forests. Costs aside, none of the downstream ‘treatment’ measures ensure success in suppressing beetle populations. The woodlands in the southwest US are increasingly Even the best forest practices will be insufficient to stem vulnerable to large-scale diebacks. Drought kills trees the damages from drought and proliferation of beetles directly via collapse of the circulatory systems within and most other forest pests and diseases. The forests their trunks and the stems (Allen and Breshears, in press). need moisture, and global warming and climate change- Populations of insect herbivores can “explode” when induced shifts in Earth’s hydrological cycle pose long-term food becomes more available as drought weakens and threats to the health of forests worldwide. CASE STUDIES Part2b.qxd 9/27/0612:57PMPage70

CASE STUDIES 70 | NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMS consist ofpoorersoils.Other constraintsonshiftsin be lowerwherethenewlands broughtintoproduction tries (notablyCanadaandRussia), thoughyieldsmight expand thepotentialproduction areasforsomecoun- crop-growing andtimber-growingregionscould mal zonationofcrops.Theresultingpolewardshift climateislikely toinduceshiftsintheopti- A warmer some extent(RosenzweigandHillel1998). to etative andreproductivedevelopmentareaffected varies withdevelopmentstage,butmoststagesofveg- Vulnerability ofcropstodamagebyhightemperatures atively, resultinginadropnetgrowthandyield. temperatures isexceeded,cropstendtorespondneg- changes intemperatures.Whentheoptimalrangeof by plants (ameasureofstress)arestronglyaffected thetic products,andthe“root-to-shoot”ratioofcrop Temperature: CROP GROWTH THE ROLE OFCLIMATE: management foragriculture. economic lossesandaddresseskeyissuesrelatedtorisk generated byclimatechange,examinestheassociated in agriculture,presentsprojectedimpactsonagriculture tion ofpests.Thiscasestudydescribestheroleclimate andchangesintheabundancedistribu- er patterns altered weath- could changedramaticallywithwarming, make up80%oftheworld'sfood,worldfoodsupply in theproductionofcerealgrainsworldwide.As 20 yearstherehasbeenacontinualpercapitadecline Agricultural Organization(FAO) thatforthepast reports supply system.TheUnitedNations’Foodand Climate changebringsnewstressesontheworldfood BACKGROUND Vicarelli Marta Paul Epstein Pamela Anderson X.B. Yang Cynt AND DISEASES CLIMATE CROP PESTS CHANGE, AGRICULTURE hia Rosenzweig The metabolism,morphology, photosyn- in cropyields,andthisisprojectedtoincrease. of precipitationisalreadyamajorcausevariation (Rosenzweig andHillel1998).Interannualvariability (especially fungaldiseases)underrainyconditions to lodgingandsusceptibleinsectsdiseases prone tain crops,suchaswheat,thatareparticularly sion. Highprecipitationmayprohibitthegrowthofcer- also inhibitfieldoperationsandexacerbatesoilero- infestations. Excesssoilmoistureinhumidareascan impeded aeration,croplodging,andincreasedpest cause leachingandwaterloggingofagriculturalsoils, detrimentaltocropyields.Excessraincan be very can spellsorstorms, events, suchasbriefhotordry Extreme weatherevents: produce 1kgofbiomass(Pimenteletal.2004). tion; ittakesapproximately1,000litersofwaterto Water isthemostseriouslimiting factor forallvegeta- tomaize,soybean,wheatandsorghum. harmful ing, pollinationandgrain-fillingstagesisespecially ers, leavesandfruits.Moisturestressduringtheflower- older leavesandinducesprematuresheddingofflow- such asreproduction.Droughthastenstheagingof periodsoccurduringcriticaldevelopmentstages, dry if evaporation, andcropyieldsaremostlikelytosuffer Water: ciency ofmarketdemand. ogy, tochangecrops,andsuffi- willingnessoffarmers crop zonationincludetheavailabilityofwater, technol- sudden soybean of expansion range northen the shows map This Figure 2.27SoybeanSuddenDeathSyndrome organisms (Yang 1997). andScherm the timing,intensityandnature ofoutbreaksmost the frequencyandseverityof weathereventsaffects and insectpestsareconstrained bytemperature,and pathogens andweeds.The range ofplantpathogens croppests, Meteorological conditionsalsoaffect PATHOGENS ANDWEEDS THE ROLE OFCLIMATE: CROP PESTS, death syndrome (Fusariam solani f.sp. glycines) in North America. North in glycines) f.sp. solani (Fusariam syndrome death Source: X.B. Yang X.B. Source: A warmer climateisprojectedtoincrease A warmer Extreme meteorological Part2b.qxd 9/27/06 12:57 PM Page 71

LOSSES ASSOCIATED WITH 1993 HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND FLOODS Losses accounted for in Mississippi River Basin: $23 billion. The unaccounted-for health and ecological consequences included:

• Over 400,000 cases of cryptosporidiosis in Milwaukee, with over 100 deaths in immunocompromised hosts, after flooding of sewage into Lake Michigan contaminated the city’s clean water supply (Mackenzie et al. 1994).

• Doubling of the size of the Gulf of Mexico “Dead Zone” in 1993, with subsequent retraction, from increased runoff of nitrogen fertilizers after flooding.

• Emergence of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome. Six years of drought in the US Southwest reduced rodent predators, while early and heavy rains in 1993 increased their food sources, leading to 10-fold increase in rodents and the emergence of this new disease (Levins et al. 1993).

• Several cases of locally transmitted malaria in Queens, NY, associated with unusually warm and wet conditions (Zucker 1996).

Milder winters and warmer nights allow increased winter thereby creating conditions favoring fungal infestations of survival of many plant pests and pathogens, accelerate leaf, root and tuber crops in runoff areas. Droughts, fol- vector and pathogen life cycles, and increase sporulation lowed by heavy rains, can also reduce rodent predators and infectiousness of foliar fungi. Because climate and drive rodents from burrows. Prolonged anomalous peri- change will allow survival of plants and pathogens out- ods — such as the five years and nine months of persistent side their historic ranges, models consistently indicate El Niño conditions (1990-1995; Trenberth and Hoar northward (and southward in the Southern Hemisphere) 1996) — can have destabilizing effects on agriculture pro- range shifts in insect pests and diseases with warming duction, as has recurrent drought from 1998 to the present (Sutherst 1990; Coakley et al. 1999). About 65% of all in the western US. plant pathogens associated with US crops are introduced Long-term field experiments discussed in the case study of AND MANAGED SYSTEMS NATURAL

and are from outside their historic ranges (D. Pimentel, | aeroallergens show that weeds respond with greater pers. comm. 2005), and models also project an increase reproductive capacity (pollen production) to elevated CO 71 in the number of invasive pathogens with warming 2 (Wayne et al. 2002; Ziska and Caulfield 2000; Ziska et (Harvell et al. 2002). al. 2003), as do some arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (Wolf et al 2003; Treseder et al. 2003; Klironomos et al. Sequential extremes can affect yields and pests. Droughts, 1997). These changes can also influence crop growth. followed by intense rains, for example, can reduce soil water absorption and increase the potential for flooding, TRENDS IN AGRICULTURAL PESTS EXTREMES Since the 1970s, the ranges of several important crop insects, weeds, and plant diseases have expanded north- AND PESTS ward (Rosenzweig et al. 2001). In Asia, the prevalence and distribution of major diseases, such as rice blast, rice • Drought encourages aphids, locust and whiteflies (and sheath blight, wheat scab, wheat downy mildew and the geminiviruses they can inject into staple crops). wheat stripe rust have changed significantly. Some fungi, such as Aspergillus flavus that produces Characteristically warm-temperature diseases have aflatoxin, is stimulated during drought and it attacks increased, while cool-temperature diseases have drought-weakened crops (Anderson et al. 2004). decreased (Yang et al. 1998) For example, in China, changes in warm-temperature diseases are statistically • Floods favor most fungi (mold) and nematodes correlated with changes in average annual temperature (Rosenzweig et al. 2001). from 1950 to 1995 (Yang et al. 1998). CASE STUDIES Part2b.qxd 9/27/0612:57PMPage72

CASE STUDIES 72 | NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMS maydis al. 2001). neworemergingdiseases(Rosenzweiget four reported US inthelast20years.Forseveralcropsthereareupto have emergedinalmostallthemajorfoodcrops of theAmericanPhytopathologicalSociety, newdiseases sponsoredbytheNationalPlantPathologyBoard survey significant threatstomajorcrops.Accordingarecent Many emergingdiseaseshavebecomeestablishedas figure 2.27). den deathsyndromehasexpandedsimilarly(see a majoryield-limitingfactor. Therangeofsoybeansud- region,becoming UStothenorthcentral from thesouthern by beanleafbeetles,hasexpandeditsdamagerange al. 2004).Beanpodmottlevirusofsoybean,vectored yieldlossintheUSA(Andersonet major causeofcorn health of farm workersandconsumers. health offarm ground watersuppliesandfood, andthreatenthe andunder- organic pollutantscontaminate surface bicides, fungicides,insecticides).Thesepersistent weeds willrequiretheincreaseduseofpesticides(her- Outbreaks ofpests,fungiandincreasedgrowth humans arecurrentlymalnourished. By thisencompassingdefinition,some3.7billion who arevitamin-andiodine-deficient(WHO2004). omits the2billioniron-malnourishedpeopleandothers applies tothosewithprotein/caloriemalnutritionand have enoughtoeat(FAO 1999).TheFAO figure 790 millionpeopleindevelopingcountriesdidnot Organization (FAO) estimatesthat inthelate1990s, eases. TheUnitedNationsFoodandAgriculture ductivity inadults,andsusceptibilitytoinfectiousdis- cal andintellectualdevelopmentinchildren,lowpro- isafundamentalcauseofstuntedphysi- Undernutrition lion peoplediedofstarvation. severe croplossfollowedbyafamineinwhichtwomil- rice leafblightafterafloodinBengal,India,resulted Irish migrationinthe19thcentury. The1943outbreakof cause ofthewidespreadfaminethatinducedgreat The fungusknownaspotatolateblightwasamajor AND NUTRITION IMPACTS ONHUMANHEALTH causedbythefungus blight ofcorn, in theearly1970s.Rangeexpansionofgrayleaf ranges inmajoragriculturecropsappearstohavestarted last twodecades.Significantexpansionofdisease neworreemergingcropdiseasesduringthe observed In theWestern Hemisphere,plantpathologistshave , firstnoticedinthe1970s,hasnowbecome Cercospora zeae- Cercospora 2005). ticides andothercontrols(D.Pimentel,pers.comm. approximately 52%ofallcropsdespitetheusepes- another 25%ofworldfood.Thus,pestsaredestroying pests (insects,microbes,rodentsandbirds)destroy other al. 1995).Afterworldcropsareharvested, a valueofaboutUS$300billionperyear(Oerkeet controls, pestsdestroymorethan40%ofallcropswith costing aboutUS$35billion,plusothernon-chemical Despite 3billionkginpesticidesappliedperyear, plant pathogensandweeds)thatdamagecrops. Worldwide thereareabout70,000 pests(insects, world foodproduction. lossesfrompestsamounttoabout52%of post-harvest amount toabout20%.Taken together, and pre-harvest losses offood(primarilyfromrodentsandmold) can beashigh50%ofpotentialyields.Post-harvest 1997). Fortropicalcropssuchassugarcane,losses 40% ofpotentialcropvalue(Altaman1993;Pimentel Worldwide, pestscauseyieldlosses ofmorethan breaks. of treatingandcontainingtheassociateddiseaseout- ed US$23billion,butthisdoesnotincludethecosts the 1993floodsinMississippiRiverValley exceed- US $3billionindirectreliefpayments.Thelossesfrom US $56billion(1998dollars)andcostthetaxpayers from the1988summerdroughtwereonorderof Page 75)(Rosenzweigetal.2001).Estimatedlosses inthepasttwodecades(Tablefor USfarmers 2.3on Extreme weathereventshavecausedseveredamage ing andtheincreasedvariability. of pests,pathogensandweedsassociatedwithwarm- weather extremes.Nonetakeintoaccounttheimpacts changes inthetimingofseasonsnoroverallrole only 6%.Notably, thesemodelsdonotinclude values Similar variationinprecipitationdecreasesfarm valuesfallbyaboutone-third. month, averagefarm nual variationintemperatureincreasesby25%every ature varianceintheirmodelsandfindthat,ifinteran- 1999). Mendelsohnetal.(1999)accountfortemper- tions ofgradualchangeintemperatures(Adamsetal. change onUSagriculturearebasedmodelprojec- Previous economicestimatesoftheimpactsclimate DIMENSIONS ECONOMIC Part2b.qxd 9/27/0612:57PMPage73 Figure 2.29SoybeanRust enter have to believed is rust Soybean reported. first was pachyrizi) (Phakopsora rust soybean where areas indicating map World Figure 2.28SoybeanRustIntroduction dust transported by Hurricane Ivan in 2004 (Stokstad 2005). (Stokstad 2004 in Ivan Hurricane by transported dust Source: X.B. Yang X.B. Source: Soybean rust disrupting disrupting rust Soybean leaf growth. leaf Image: Joe Hennen. Hennen. Joe Image: Botanical Research Institute, Research Botanical Fort Worth, TX. Worth, Fort ed the US with US the ed 2004

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CASE STUDIES 74 | NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMS coal rot was 30% in southern Brazil(USDA16Aug coal rotwas30%insouthern The estimatedyieldreduction duetodroughtandchar- ing widespread“charcoalrot,” anotherfungaldisease. BrazilandArgentina,induc- ducing regionsinsouthern The year2004alsobroughtdroughttosoybeanpro- surpassed herbicideuseinBrazil. control soybeanrustin2003andfungicideusehas offungicideswereusedto US $750millionworth World SoybeanResearchConference(March2004), presented byBrazilianplantpathologistsat report in 2004wereoverUS$2.3billion.Accordingtoa Brazil, excessiverainsfavoreditsdevelopment.Losses disease occurredearlyand,incentralandnorthern In 2004,soybeanrustwasworsethanin2003.The mass applicationoffungicides. ing inlossesofUS$1.3billionBrazilalone,despite epidemics occurredinthe2003growingseason,result- in2001SouthAmerica,severe ease wasreported afterthedis- and Paraguay(seefigure2.28).Shortly tion ofsoybeanrustintoSouthAmerica,mainlyinBrazil The globalsituationwasexacerbatedbytheintroduc- soybean futuresintheUS. the 2002seasonandresultedinrecordhighpricesof Yields inthesestateswere20-28% lowerthanthosein August. intoarecorddry weather suddenlyturned three largestsoybeanproducingstates,aftercoolJuly disease —occurredinIowa,IllinoisandMinnesota,the of Asianaphidsandcharcoalrot—afungalroot billion inlosses.Inthe2003growingseason,outbreaks 2.27) andvariousviraldiseases,causingnearlyUS$2 of SoybeanSuddenDeathSyndrome(SDS)(seefigure experiencedepidemics In 2002,USsoybeanfarmers below US$4/bu. highest beingaboutUS$8/buandthelowest fluctuated aroundUS$5to$6/bushelwiththe in SouthAmerica.Consequently, soybeanpriceshave set bytheexpansionofareasforsoybeanproduction ly byAsiancountries,especiallyChina)hasbeenoff- America.Expansionofglobaldemand(main- in North which nowproducesmoresoybeanthanisproduced the expansionofcroppingareainSouthAmerica, many years,soybeanpriceshavebeensuppressedby for over80%ofthesoybeanproducedglobally. For 1984). SoybeanproductionintheAmericasaccounts the USweremadeinearly1980s(Kuchleretal. Projected lossesfromintroductionofsoybeanrustinto OF SOYBEAN DISEASES IMPACTSECONOMIC due tosoybeanrust(Hiromoto2004). world, willbeoutofbusinessinthenextseveralyears Brazil, thelargestsoybeanproductionregionin that 30%ofsoybeanproducersinMatoGrosso, periodin2004.Itispredicted $14/bu forashort soybean deliveredinMay2004.ItreachedUS US $5/buin2003Augusttonear$11/bufor America haveraisedthepriceofsoybeanfromaround andSouth 2004). SuchyieldreductionsinbothNorth (Livingston etal.2004). lion/year withinthreetofiveyears US$240millionto$2bil- farmers that soybeanrustwillcostAmerican states anditisestimatedbytheUSDA The fungaldiseaserapidlyspreadto11 Florida infall2004(Stokstad2004). Hurricane Ivan,oneofthefourtohit have beenintroducedintotheUSby Most recently, soybeanrustisthoughtto Soybean Field Image: Corbis Image: Part2b.qxd 9/27/06 12:57 PM Page 75

Table 2.3 Extreme Weather Events Causing Severe Crop Damage in the US: 1977-2003

Year Geographical area Extreme weather event and US losses 1970 U.S. Southern States Southern corn blight (pest). Total losses: $56 billion Drought induced high aflatoxin concentration in 1977 U.S. Southern States corn, costing producers more than $80 million. Drought disrupted domestic and export corn 1977 U.S. Corn Belt marketing. U.S. Central and 1980 Summer drought and heat wave. Eastern regions Drought induced high aflatoxin concentration in 1983 U.S. Southern States corn costing producers more than $97 million. Drought disrupted domestic and export corn 1983 U.S. Corn Belt marketing. 1986 U.S. Southeast Summer drought and heat wave. Summer drought and heat wave. Congress paid U.S. Central and 1988 farmers over $3 billion for crop losses. Total losses: Eastern regions $56 billion. U.S. Texas, 1990 Oklahoma, Louisiana, Flooding in spring. Arkansas Flooding in summer affecting 16,000 square miles of farmland, and damaging crops in over 11 million 1993 U.S. Midwest acres. Crop losses over $3 billion. Total losses exceeded $20 billion. Drought and heat wave in the summer, causing the 1993 U.S. Southeast loss of 90% of corn, 50% of soybean, and 50% of wheat crops. Crop losses over $1 billion. 1994 U.S. Texas Severe flooding. 1995 U.S. Southern Plains Severe flooding. U.S. Texas, 1995 Oklahoma, Louisiana, Severe flooding. Mississippi, California. U.S. Pacific Northwest, 1996 Severe flooding. Appalachian, Mid- Atlantic and Northeast AND MANAGED SYSTEMS NATURAL U.S. Northern Plains, |

Arkansas, Missouri, 75 Mississippi, Tennessee, 1997 Severe flooding. Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, West Virginia 1997 U.S. West Coast Severe flooding from December 1996 to January

Sources: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA; X.B. Yang, personal communication CASE STUDIES Part2b.qxd 9/27/0612:58PMPage76

CASE STUDIES 76 | NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMS within allcountries,exacerbating inequitiesinhealthsta- upondevelopingcountries andonthepoor portionately The impactsofclimatechange, therefore,willfalldispro- fed regionswhererainfalldecreasessubstantially. jected temperaturechanges,especiallyfordryland/rain- potential yieldsareprojectedtodecreaseunderallpro- rises. Inmosttropicalandsubtropicalregions,however, ture increases,butdecreasewithlargetemperature ate areas,potentialyieldsincreasewithsmalltempera- Models forcerealcropsindicatethat,insometemper- and wheat(ChenMcCarl2001). cotton,potatoes,soybeans tain crops,suchascorn, would increasetheuse(andcosts)ofpesticidesforcer- increased precipitationandaccompanyingdiseases fungal diseases,suchassoybeanrust.Warming and changes willlikelyleadtoincreasedoutbreaksoffoliar likely overmostareas(Houghtonetal.2001).These larger year-to-yearvariationsinprecipitationarevery projected toincreaseinsomeagriculturalregionsand precipitation areincreasing,irrigationrequirements While globalaveragewatervaporconcentrationand ria, viruses)(Andersonetal.2004). ate vectorandpathogenlifecycles(foliarfungi,bacte- of plantpathogensandinvasivespecies,acceler- higher overalltemperatureswillfacilitatewintersurvival introduced pathogenstothrive.Milderwintersand existing pathogensorcanprovidetheconditionsfor Climate changecanleadtotheresurgenceofpre- tions forpestoutbreaks. when extremeweathereventsproducefavorablecondi- largecroplossesbecomemorelikely 2001). Particularly risk ofhungerinvulnerablepopulations(Houghtonetal. icantly andincreasefoodpricesglobally, increasingthe several °Cormoreisprojectedtoalterproductionsignif- yieldsby10%(Brown2002).Warmingand corn of of1°Cisestimatedtodecreasewheat,rice A warming cultivatedandwildplants. relationships thataffect may alsocontributetonewconfigurationsofplant-pest and pests.Globalizationintensificationtechniques and theprevalence,extent,typeofcropdiseases regime, thetimingofseasons,arrivalpollinators globe. Achangingclimatewillalterthehydrological agriculturearoundthe Climate changewillaffect CCF-I: ESCALATING IMPACTS THE FUTURE Figure 2.30 Healthy Corn Fields Figure 2.30HealthyCorn political instability. couldleadto annum. Multi-regionalfoodshortages devastating yearswelloverUS$150billionper extremes andpestscoulddrivelossesinparticularly weather pathogens andweeds,morewarming, growing andstoredgrainsnowlosttopests, the orderofUS$300billionannually, andover50% tions. Withproductionoftheeightmostvitalfoodson annual lossesoftenexceed50%undertoday’s condi- tropical cropssuchassugarcane,forwhichcurrent to includethemajorityoffoodcrops,especiallyfor worldwide (Altaman1993),lossescouldclimbsteeply With pestscurrentlycausingyieldlossesover40% eliminationofprotectivepredators. pests andthevirtual pesticides couldbreedwidespreadresistanceamong tollindevelopingnations,andoveruseof enormous and temperatezones.Diseaseoutbreakscouldtakean onagriculturalyieldsinthetropics,subtropics effects and unpredictableweathercouldhavecatastrophic andmoreviolent forwarming The currenttrajectory CCF-II: SURPRISEIMPACTS Image: Shaefer Elvira/Dreamstime Shaefer Image: requirements. ning forpetrol,petrochemicalandfertilizer a) selectionofseeds,b)timingplanting,andc)plan- systemsofextremeeventscanaidinthe Early warning SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS pronounced overtime(Houghtonetal.2001). els, anddisparitiesdisputescouldbecomemore tradeatregionalandgloballev- ininternational tortions infoodsupplycouldgeneratedis- resources. Shortages tus andaccesstofood,cleanwaterotherbasic Part2b.qxd 9/27/06 12:58 PM Page 77

General measures to reduce the impacts of weather extremes and infestations include:

• No tillage agriculture. • Maintaining crop diversity that helps limit disease spread. • Maintaining flowering plants that support MARINE ECOSYSTEMS pollinating insects and birds. • Maintaining trees around plots that serve as windbreakers and provide homes for worm- and CASE 1. THE TROPICAL CORAL REEF insect-eating birds. Raymond L. Hayes • Integrated pest management and organic farming, as toxic chemicals can kill pollinators (birds, bees BACKGROUND and butterflies), predators of herbivorous insects (ladybugs and parasitic wasps), and predators of Threats to coral reefs constitute one of the earliest and rodents (owls, hawks and eagles). clearest marine ecosystem impacts of global climate • Appropriate national and international food policies change. Coral reefs are in danger worldwide from (subsidies, tariffs, prices) are needed to provide the warming-induced bleaching and multiple emerging dis- proper incentives for sustainable agriculture. eases. Their decline was first apparent in the early 1980s and reef death has progressed steadily since The farming sector can also profitably contribute to (Williams and Bunkley-Williams 1990). Approximately climate solutions. Such measures include: 27% of reefs worldwide have been degraded by bleaching, while another 60% are deemed highly vul- • Soil and plant biomass carbon sequestration. nerable to bleaching, disease and subsequent over- • Methane capture for energy generation. growth by macro-algae (Bryant et al. 1998). Mortality • Plants and animals used to produce biofuels. of reefs in the Caribbean islands of Jamaica, Haiti • Plants for biodiesel. and the Dominican Republic is now over 80% (Burke • Solar panel arrays. 2004). • Wind farms. This level of impact — with continued ocean warming Integrated systems, with a diversity of crops and of sur- and pollution — could lead to collapse of the reefs rounding ecological zones, can provide strong gener- AND MANAGED SYSTEMS NATURAL

entirely within several decades. While ecological sys- | alized defenses in the face of weather extremes, pest tems can reach thresholds and collapse suddenly, their 77 infestations and invasive species. The mitigation recovery and reorganization into a new equilibrium options to absorb carbon and generate energy cleanly could be very slow (Maslin 2000). can become a significant part of farming activities and contribute significantly to stabilizing the climate. Coral reefs provide numerous ecological functions for marine life and serve as physical buffers that protect low-lying tropical islands and coastal zones against storms. The total value of reef-related shoreline protec- tive services in the Caribbean region has been estimated to be between US $740 million and US $2.2 billion per year. Depending upon the degree of development, this coastal-protection benefit ranges from US $2,000 to US $1,000,000 per kilometer of coastline (Burke and Maidens 2004). CASE STUDIES Part2b.qxd 9/27/0612:58PMPage78

CASE STUDIES 78 | NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMS 14-year cumulative sea surface temperature anomalies and areas of coral bleaching indicated by red circles. Years with El Niño Niño El with Years circles. red by indicated bleaching coral of areas and anomalies temperature surface sea cumulative 14-year TemperaturesFigure 2.31SeaSurface andCoralBleaching be appreciatedthroughphysiologicaldata. the reefecosystemmaynotbeasevidentandcanonly However, subtledamagetointeractivebalanceswithin mounds, isdocumented(Nowlisetal.1997). among fragilebranchingcoralsandexposedcoral activity,age tocoralreefsfollowingstorm especially reef ecosystemintegrityandcoralvitality. Framedam- sources, andshoreerosion.Alloftheseinsultsdegrade ofchemicalpollutantsfromterrestrial liferation, runoff breakage, sedimentation,microbialandplanktonicpro- torrential rainfallandmudslidescancausereefframe intense extremeevents,includinghurricanes,cyclones, boring algalsymbionts.Also,morefrequentand figure 2.31),bleachingoccursinreeforganismshar- seasonoftheyear(seemap, ages duringthewarmest seasonalaver- 1°C (1.8°F),anomalyabovelong-term for amonthormoreabove30°C(86°F),reach construction andrepair. Whenseatemperaturepersists forframe reef-building coralsarelosingtheirefficiency son seatemperaturemaximanowapproaching30°C, sea- 28°C (McNeiletal.2004).Withannualwarm ture forcoralvitalityandskeletalproductionis25- range ofonlyafewdegreesCelsius.Optimaltempera- to shallow, near-shorewatersandtoatemperature temperate waterniches,reef-buildingcoralsarerestricted Although somecoralcoloniesinhabitdeepwaterand sensitivetotemperatureanomalies. Reefs arevery THE ROLE OFCLIMATE volcanic eruptions have been removed from the data set. Yellow indicates temperatures 1 temperatures indicates Yellow set. data the from removed been have eruptions volcanic anomalies 2 anomalies Source: (Base map) Climate Diagnostics Bulletin, NOAA AVHRR Satellite Database, 1982-2003 and (data) Ray Hayes and Tom Goreau Tom and Hayes Ray (data) and 1982-2003 Database, Satellite AVHRR NOAA Bulletin, Diagnostics Climate map) (Base Source: ° C above the long-term average. average. long-term the above C ducing tissueinfectionandultimately, coraldeath. They proliferate,colonizeandinvadecoraltiss sible fordiseasesofreef-buildingcoralsalsothrive. marinemicrobesthatarerespon- response towarming, (GoreauandHayes1994).In limit forsurvival pushed thecoralreefecosystemsbeyondtheirthermal duringthecoolestmonthsofyear,warming have months oftheyear, coupledwithinadequaterelieffrom of coastaloceans,especiallyduringthewarmest reefs exposuretohightemperatures.Excessivewarming watersinkstogive hypersalinesurface ent ofwarm humidity backintotheatmosphere.Thereversegradi- watersexceedstherateofevaporation surface in oceans (Levitusetal.2000).Therateofwarming excess heatthatrapidlyequilibratesintheworld's thesourceof accumulation ofgreenhousegasesoffers duetothe in thecoastaloceans.Atmosphericwarming Climate changeistheprincipalagentforcing this projectedoutcome(McNeiletal.2004). itselfmayalter researchers believetheoceanwarming Orr etal.2005;Pelejero2005),thoughsome etal.2004a kill allcoralorganismsby2065(Steffan oceans anddepletionofcalciumfromcoralreefscould Apart from warming, CO fromwarming, Apart ° C above the mean temperature; orange indicates orange temperature; mean the above C 2 causes acidificationofthe events and events ues, pro- Part2b.qxd 9/27/06 12:58 PM Page 79

Physiological stresses on reef organisms are additive. nize, invade and infect the coral tissue, that relation- Although reef changes are triggered by elevated tem- ship of mutualism shifts to parasitism. The corals, lack- perature, several other factors compound the negative ing other effective defense mechanisms against infec- effects upon the ecosystems. Pollution from industrial, tion, are rapidly overgrown by macroalgae, as well agricultural, petrochemical and domestic sources, sedi- as bacteria and other microbes. mentation from shoreline erosion, daytime penetration of intense ultraviolet radiation, and hyposalinity from The most prevalent signs of infection are discoloration, freshwater runoff during times of extreme rainfall detachment from the skeleton, and loss of tissue integri- impose added environmental stresses that impede ty. Discolorations may be due to bacterial growth (for recovery of the compromised reef. example, black band), loss of algae (for example, bleaching, coral pox), or local accumulation of pig- Caribbean reefs are now subject to annual episodes ment (for example, yellow band, dark spot). of bleaching and persistent expression of diseases (see Detachment of tissue from the skeleton represents disso- figure 2.31). The imminent collapse of Jamaica’s reefs lution of anchoring filaments and/or solubilization of and their overgrowth of macroalgae was already the aragonitic (a calcium compound) skeleton itself (for apparent by 1991 (Goreau 1992) as a result of example, coral plague). Tissue necrosis is slowly pro- bleaching stress (Goreau and Hayes 2004), mass gressive and usually includes a patterned loss of mortality of sea urchins (Lessios 1984), overharvesting epithelial integrity (for example, white band). of reef fishes (Jackson et al. 2001), and excess nutrient-loading with nitrates and phosphates released from HEALTH AND ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS the land sources (Hughes et al. 2003). Decline in the health and integrity of coral reefs has The collapse of reefs means the loss of net benefits that multiple implications for sea life and for the coastal vary in economic value depending upon the degree of zone bordering low-lying tropical lands. Declines and coastal development. However, in Southeast Asia the loss will decrease their function as nurseries for shellfish total loss is estimated to represent an annual value of and finfish (approximately 40% of stocks worldwide), US $20,000-151,000 per square kilometer of reef and affect the lives and livelihoods for communities (Burke 2002). This estimate is based upon an assess- that depend on fishing for consumption and commer- ment of benefits derived from fisheries, coastal protec- cialization. The disruption of reefs as shoreline barriers tion, tourism and biodiversity. allows salt water intrusion and salinization of ground- water. This can lead to hypertension in humans and NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMS NATURAL

CORAL DISEASES decreased soil fertility for agricultural production (fur- | ther affecting health and nutrition). Reefs are also 79 In addition, all species of keystone reef-building corals becoming reservoirs for microbial pathogens that can have suffered mounting rates of mortality from an contaminate the food chain, and are associated with increasing assortment of poorly defined emerging bac- human health risks from direct contact with microbe- terial diseases. Within the last three decades, coral laden coastal waters (Epstein et al. 1993; Hayes and colonies have become hosts to various microbes and Goreau 1998). have demonstrated limited capacity to either resist microbial colonization and invasion or defend against tissue infection and premature death (Harvell et al. 1999; Sutherland et al. 2004).

Bacteria normally live in dynamic equilibrium within the surface mucous layer secreted by corals. This relationship between bacteria and coral mucus is one of mutu- al benefit, since tropical waters are nutrient poor and incapable of sustaining bacterial metabolism. Coral mucus serves as a source of nutrition for these bacteria, and the bacteria, in turn, provide protection to corals from predators. However, once bacteria colo- CASE STUDIES Part2b.qxd 9/27/0612:58PMPage80

CASE STUDIES 80 | NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMS discount rateof3%(Cesaretal.2003). analysis isbasedupona50-yearextrapolationat the world’s coralreefs inbillionsofUSdollars.This coral reefsperyearandthenetpresentvalue(NPV)of estimate ofthepotentialnewbenefitstreamsfrom Table 2.4provides aglobalenvironmentaleconomic DIMENSIONS ECONOMIC sibly leadtochronicfatigue,andtheroleofbiotoxins amnesia andparalysis.Repeatedexposurecouldpos- the lips,toheadaches,changeinconsciousness, tinglingof rangefromtemporary system. Theeffects thenervous Most biologicaltoxinsfromredtidesaffect ing organisms(Epsteinetal.1993). can triggerlargeblooms,sometimeswithtoxin-produc- ents, microorganismsandtoxicchemicalsafterfloods ofnutri- stagnantwatersandrunoff HABs, whilewarm, and aerosolizednitrogen)providesthesubstratefor sewage The increaseinnitrogenouswastes(fertilizers, thebasisofmarinefoodweb. plankton thatform tohumansareharboredinthephyto-andzoo- harmful etal.1999).Choleraandotherbacteria (Harvell wide, andnoveltoxicorganismsareappearing increasing infrequency, intensityanddurationworld- algalblooms(HABs)are Marine redtidesorharmful Oceanography of Institution Franks/Scripps P.J.S. Image: Figure 2.32RedTide BLOOMS HARMFUL ALGAL The 2005HABoutbreakof water ”lenses,”nutritionandlivelihoods. threaten beaches,roads,homes,hotels,islandfresh- surges coral reefs,sealevelriseandgreaterstorm also threatenedbysealevelrise.Lossofwetlandsand aquaculture andcoastaldevelopment.Mangrovesare whose rootshidethem—arebeingremovedfor Mangroves —whosedroppedleavesfeedfishand etal.1999). grass beds,nurseriesforshellfish(Harvell White 2003UNEP2005),aswelllossesofsea- in baysandestuariesaroundtheworld(Rupp tributing totheover150“deadzones”beingreported Brown tidescausehypoxiaandanoxia,arecon- study. susceptibility toinfectionsandcancersneedsfurther in suppressingtheimmunesystemsandthusincreasing and tourism(Goodnough2005). west costhastakenalargetollonfisheries,livelihoods Florida’sA redtidepersistingatleastninemonthsoff algal bloomsinsubsequentyears. square milesofcoastline,settingthestageforharmful million aweekandcouldseedcystsalongmany hoods, eventplannersandrestaurants—costUS$3 tourism,fisheries,liveli- —affecting the Northeast ended withahurricane.Theextensive2005bloomin appeared nearthemouthofriversafteradrought saxitoxins causingparalyticshellfishpoisoning,first of thedinoflagellate, al nutrients.Thelarge1972bloominNewEngland coast andbroughtcoldupwellingwaterwithaddition- Atlanticwaters)blewthebloomsagainst North (spawned byhighpressuresystemsovercoolfresh May andtwonor’eastersinJune.Thenor'easters New Englandwasassociatedwithheavyrainsin Source: Cesar et al. 2003 al. et Cesar Source: Table 2.4The“Value” ofCoralReefs OD EVCS NPV TOTAL Ae To Coa Fi GOODS /SERVICES s u s herie thetic ri s s tal Protectio m /Recreatio s s /Biodiver n

n s

ity Alexandrium tamarense Alexandrium AMOUNT (i 5.5 5.7 9.0 9.6 797.4 29. Alexandrium fundyense Alexandrium 8 n US$BILLION) , bearing – P.E. in Part2b.qxd 9/27/06 12:58 PM Page 81

There are many questions concerning this cost-benefit risky and non-sustaining. For example, resorts in El accounting methodology, especially the true nature of Nido shifted market segments away from divers to the benefits (for example, medicines derived from reef- honeymooners in response to reef degradation, result- dwelling organisms, which can generate billions of ing in a significant loss of US $1.5 million annually. dollars in revenue), and the connected costs and multiple intangibles included in the cost-benefit analyses. In Studies undertaken in the Indian Ocean region in addition, benefits can accrue over time and alter the response to the 1997-98 bleaching event provide empir- value of natural assets. It is questionable if these fig- ical documentation and estimates of the impact of a sin- ures accurately portray the full evaluation of a thresh- gle catastrophic episode of coral reef bleaching. The old event, such as the collapse of reefs worldwide. upper end of the cost estimate is US $8 billion, depending on the ability of the reefs to ultimately recover. SOCIO-ECONOMICS OF THE 1997-98 CORAL REEF BLEACHING EPISODE THE FUTURE IN THE INDIAN OCEAN CCF-I: ESCALATING IMPACTS

In the short term, the most dramatic socio-economic Global warming, with inadequate winter cooling, will impacts from the 1997-98 mass bleaching event were continue to heat sea surfaces, especially across the trop- estimated losses to reef-dependent tourism. These loss- ics. The full impact of such temperature increases on the es were developed for the diving destinations at vitality of coral reef ecosystems will depend upon the Palau, El Nido, Palawan, the Philippines and other nature of other human-induced changes and the cumula- sites in the Indian Ocean region. tive stresses placed upon reef ecosystems. Overall, the projected warm seasonal disruption of symbiosis in reef- Table 2.5 Losses from 1997-98 Bleaching (US $Millions) building corals will reduce the growth in mass of the Country Total Losses inorganic reef frame. Zanzibar 7.4 Mombasa 35.1 With weakened frames, the susceptibility of coral reefs Maldivas 22.0 to physical damage during storms increases, while the Sri Lanka 2.2 capacity for self-repair diminishes. Thermal stress and Philippines 29.6 Palau 0.4 bleaching also disrupts food production and energetics within reef-building corals, retarding the generation of Source: Westmacott et al. 2000 AND MANAGED SYSTEMS NATURAL

mature gametes for sexual reproduction and reducing | the coral’s abilities to resist predation. With time, reefs 81 The manifestation of the losses shown in the table become fragile and less able to protect shores against above is multidimensional and includes: a) impacts on storm surges. tourist destination choice, which results in lost visitation and therefore a total loss of tourism revenue; b) Global warming, meanwhile, would stimulate prolifera- impacts on choice of activities pursued, which may tion, colonization, random mutation and host invasion of cause reduced coral reef-related revenue; and c) marine microbes. The coral’s already compromised reductions in tourist satisfaction with the diving experi- defenses against predation would be further challenged ence as a result of degraded reef conditions. by an invigorated assortment of micro-predators with lim- itless strategies for penetrating coral tissues. The implication is that impacts of coral bleaching on tourism depend upon whether diving destinations can maintain their status and reputation, even in the face of reef degradation, through promotion of other underwater attractions. Impacts upon the diving industry might be reduced by diverting diver attention to other interests, such as shipwrecks or even the documentation of coral bleaching per se. However, such tactics may be CASE STUDIES Part2b.qxd 9/27/0612:58PMPage82

CASE STUDIES 82 | NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMS phes inlow-lyingislandsand coastlines. with sealevelrise,willcreatesocio-economiccatastro- surge,together loss ofreefprotectionagainststorm workers. Thelossofreefsastouristattractionsandthe nesses, andalsotocompensateunemployedlocal local healthcarecostsstemmingfromenvironmentalill- ties (homes,buildings,piers,boats),tomeetelevated proper- torepairstorm-damaged would benecessary Economicresources require majorfinancialsupport. line hotels,lossesofhomes,roadsandbridges)would of damagestotourist-relatedstructures(includingshore- Recovery coral reefecosystemsareofgreatconcern. Potential economicimpactsfollowingthecollapseof quantify. beach anduplandcommunities)isnotpossibleto associated withthem(thatis,seagrasses,mangroves, ofcoralreefsandtheecosystems assuring thesurvival irreplaceable role.Theeconomicandsocialvalueof lion fortheworld’s reefsmayvastlyunderestimatetheir sense. TheeconomicvaluationofaboutUS$800bil- Costing thelossofEarth’s oldest habitatmakeslittle reefs. temperatures couldbleachtheentireringofcoral ofseasurface decades. Just1°Cadditionalwarming ect acollapseofcoralreefsinthenextseveral bleaching, pollutionanddisease,itisplausibletoproj- With nearly60%oftheworld’s reefsthreatenedby CCF-II: SURPRISEIMPACTS reefs iseroded. pronounced oncethestructuralframeofbleached Theimpactsuponfisheriesmaybecomemore patterns. changingtheirfishinghabitsand masked byfishermen occurring atsmallspatialortemporalscaleswouldbe priortothebleachingevent.Impacts nated thefishery not beexpected,sinceherbivoreswouldhavedomi- fished, reductionsinoverallreeffishpopulationswould ing issuperimposedonreefsthatarealreadyover- are lowerinvaluethanotherspecies.Whenbleach- asherbivores shift wouldnegativelyimpactfishermen, tion ofreeffishpopulationstowardherbivores.Sucha byspecies,shiftingthenetcomposi- dance wouldvary that preyonsmallerreeffish.Changesinfishabun- oftheirlifecycleor that inhabitreefsforatleastpart Population reductionshavebeenpredictedforspecies IMPACT ONFISHERIES • Banning andmonitoringcompliance fordestructive • Adhering toregulations regardingMarineProtected contiguousareasof the interconnected • Preserve • Implementing fishingquotas,establishing‘no-go’ andpesticidesinnear- • Reduced useoffertilizers • Treatment breakdown ofdomesticsewagetotertiary Themeasuresinclude: effect. prehensive inordertohaveasubstantialandlasting measuresmustbecom- Implementation ofconservation thesevitalareas. provide theframeworkforpreserving detrimental toreefresilience.MarineProtectedAreas activitiesforrecreationandcommerceare harvesting chemical pollutantsaroundreefs,andunsustainable boat andanchordamage,releaseofdebris Directcontactbetweentouristsandcoral, survival. by reducingthedirectanthropogenicthreatstocoral maybedelayed The fullimpactsofglobalwarming SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS security andstability. coststointernational present thegreatestshort-term displacedpersonsmay mental refugeesandinternally nations. Thegenerationoflargenumbersenviron- heightened politicalandeconomicpressuresonother island andlow-lyingnationpopulations,resultingin coulddisplacemany more intensetropicalstorms aquifers, thelossofbarrierandfringingreefs, from thecombinationofsaltwaterintrusioninto Disruption oflow-lyingcoastalareasandislandlife tial risksfortourism,travelandalliedindustries. eases (suchasdenguefever)collectivelyposesubstan- dis- surges,andmoreepidemicsofvector-borne storm morepowerful reef destruction,moreintensestorms, lion annually. Thecombinationofsealevelrise,coral Tourism intheCaribbeangeneratesoverUS$16bil- construction. cyanide usedforfishing,and removalofreefsfor fishing practices,forexample, dynamiteand areas. Areas andrestrictedaccesszonesalongcoastal lands, mangrovestandsandspawninglagoons. upland forestandwatershedsystems,coastalwet- protection ofshellfishandfinfishstocks. zones,toallowforreplenishmentand harvesting no- zones andseasons,designatingtemporary shore coastalcommunities. ments. marineenviron- levels beforereleaseintofar-offshore Part2b.qxd 9/27/06 12:58 PM Page 83

• Terminating practices that destroy or extract reef Benthic (bottom-dwelling) filter feeders like oysters are frame for ornamental aquarium trade, construction an important component of estuarine and coastal food materials, navigational clearance, and for other webs. Loss or reduction of these organisms can have a commercial applications (for example, coral calcium large effect on ecosystem structure and function as well health supplements). as economic impacts, as many are commercially har- • Develop and expand regulated, sustainable and vested shellfish. The current condition of Chesapeake environmentally friendly ecotourist activities in tropi- Bay oysters illustrates the imports of losing any impor- cal settings. tant, keystone component of the marine food web.

Together, these local measures can make restoration Newell (1988) estimated that the pre-1870 oyster stocks in the Maryland waters of Chesapeake Bay and recovery of residual reefs possible. But for reefs, would have been capable of removing 77% of the even more so than other ecosystems, their survival is 1982 daily carbon production in waters less than nine intimately tied to stabilization of the global climate. meters deep. Newell further concluded that oysters were once abundant enough to have been the domi- CASE 2. MARINE SHELLFISH nant species filtering carbon from the water column in Eileen Hofmann Chesapeake Bay.

Figure 2.33 Oysters It should be noted that the Eastern oyster is only one of many shellfish species that are being impacted by diseases that are thought to be gaining in prevalence and intensity due to a changing climate. For example, Brown Ring Disease, caused by Vibrio tapetis, in Manila clams (Ruditapes philippinarum) has had a significant impact in Europe.

DERMO AND MSX

Dermo and MSX are parasitic diseases that affect oysters. They render these bivalves uneatable, but the parasite itself is not known to harm humans.

Oysters feed by filtering gallons of water each day to extract nutrients

and plankton. This filtering activity helps keep bays clear and clean. Dermo is an intracellular parasite (2 to 4 um) called AND MANAGED SYSTEMS NATURAL

Image: Lyn Boxter/Dreamstime Perkinsus marinus, that infects the hemocytes of the |

eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica. Dermo is transmit- 83 BACKGROUND ted from oyster to oyster. Natural infections are most often caused by parasites released from the disintegra- The Eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) has been a tion of dead oysters. Waterborne stages of the para- major component of the biology and ecology of site may spread the disease over long distances. Chesapeake Bay for the past 10,000 years (Mann Transmission may also occur by vectors such as scav- 2000). This species supported a strong commercial engers feeding on infected dead oysters or by para- fishery for the first part of the twentieth century. During sitic snails. Alternate molluscan hosts can serve as the past four decades, Eastern oyster populations in important reservoirs for Dermo. Chesapeake Bay have been greatly reduced by the effects of two protozoan (one-cell animal) diseases: Since Dermo is considered a warm water pathogen Dermo, caused by Perkinsus marinus, and that proliferates most rapidly at temperatures above Multinucleated Spore Unknown (MSX), caused by 25°C (77°F), ocean warming influences its activity and Haplosporidium nelsoni. The addition of overfishing range climate. In the northeast US, the disease may and habitat deterioration has caused a long-term become endemic as a result of a series of warm win- decrease in Eastern oyster populations in Chesapeake ters. However, Dermo can also survive freezing. It is Bay. The result is that native oyster populations are suppressed by low salinities, less than 8 to 10 parts per now only a small percentage of the populations that thousand, but the parasite proliferates rapidly when oys- existed until the middle of the last century. ters are transplanted into higher salinity waters (Ford and Tripp 1996). CASE STUDIES Part2b.qxd 9/27/06 12:58 PM Page 84

Dermo disease caused extensive oyster mortalities in NORTHWARD MOVEMENT the Gulf of Mexico in the late 1940s. Later, it caused chronic and occasionally massive mortalities in the From the late 1940s when Dermo disease was first Chesapeake Bay. Since 1990, Dermo has been identified (Mackin et al. 1950) until the 1990s, detected in Delaware Bay, Long Island Sound, Dermo disease was found primarily from Chesapeake Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Maine. Bay south along the Atlantic coast of the United States and into the Gulf of Mexico. In 1990 and 1991 the MSX (multi-nucleated spore unknown) is now known to parasite causing this disease was found in locations be caused by the parasite Haplospordium nelsoni. from Delaware Bay, NJ, to Cape Cod, MA. It is now MSX caused massive oyster mortalities in Delaware found in oyster populations in Maine and southern Bay in 1957 and two years later in Chesapeake Bay. Canada, where it has caused epizootics (epidemics The parasite has been found from Florida to Maine, among animals — in this case, shellfish) that have dev- but has not been associated with mortalities in all astated oyster populations and the oyster fishery. areas. MSX was found in oysters from Connecticut Several hypotheses have been suggested for the waters 30 years ago. MSX disease is suppressed by observed expansion in range of this disease. The one low salinities and low temperatures. As described by that is most consistent with the available evidence is the Connecticut Department of Agriculture, there is low that this parasite was introduced into various northern oyster mortality during the winter months and the locations where it remained at low levels until the prevalence and intensity of the disease decreases. A recent warming climate allowed it to proliferate (Ford second mortality period occurs in late winter and early 1996). In particular, above-average winter tempera- spring (Ford and Tripp 1996). tures during the 1990s along the eastern United States and Canada (Easterling et al. 1997) have allowed THE ROLE OF CLIMATE the parasite that causes Dermo disease to become established (Ford 1996; Cook et al. 1998). Also, the As with human diseases, the sequential occurrence of interannual variation in prevalence and intensity of events, such as a warm winter followed by a warm, Dermo disease in oysters along the Gulf of Mexico dry summer, can result in disease prevalence and has been shown to be related to shifts in the ENSO intensities greater than normal (Hofmann et al. 2001). cycle (Kim and Powell 1998), also an indication that The intensification of Dermo disease coincided with a climate is a strong contributor. This relationship arises period of sustained drought, diminished freshwater through changes in temperature and salinity that result inflow to the Chesapeake Bay, and warmer winters. from the ENSO cycle, which directly affect Perkinsus NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMS NATURAL The drought and warmer temperatures, which cause marinus growth and development. The disease is much | increased evaporation, combined with the reduced more intense and prevalent throughout the Gulf of 84 freshwater input, resulted in increased salinity of the Mexico during La Niña events, which produce warmer Bay waters. The increased salinity allowed the dis- and drier conditions and often drought (Kim and ease-causing parasite to increase in prevalence and Powell 1998). intensity. The milder winters allowed the parasite to survive and remain at high levels in the oyster population. HEALTH AND ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS Reduction and/or cessation in harvesting pressure have not resulted in significant recovery of the stocks. Oysters and other bivalves (clams and mussels), in The mitigation strategies were too late and did not addition to serving as food for humans and shorebirds, anticipate the increase and spread of Dermo disease are filter-feeders. Each oyster can pull in many gallons that has occurred as the climate has warmed. of water a day, filtering out the nutrients and plankton for its own nourishment. In this way, they provide a criti- cal ecological service: controlling the nutrient and algae level in bays and estuaries. Without bivalves, these coastal waters would turn murky, and contaminated, and algal mats would create hypoxic or anoxic conditions. Such waters become less productive for fish, shellfish and sea grasses that support the fish, and shellfish can die off and the few fish left tend to CASE STUDIES Part2b.qxd 9/27/0612:58PMPage85 Step-wise drops in Chasepeake Bay oysters have been associated been have oysters Bay Chasepeake in drops Step-wise 1931-2005 Figure 2.35ChesapeakeBayMarketOysterLandings: ( increased prevalenceofstingingseanettles beds andassociatedbiologicalcommunities, Chesapeake Bayhasreducedwaterclarity, seagrass loss ofoysters.Withchangesinnutrientcycling, of ChesapeakeBayhasbeenalteredbecausethe oyster levels.Theresultisthattheecosystemstructure feeders withpopulationlevelsthatapproachhistoric The ChesapeakeBaydoesnothaveotherbenthicfilter livelihoods. Surrounding communitiescanlosetheirfisheriesand become contaminatedwithvirusesandbacteria. recreational useofBayresources. logical productionoftheBayandeconomic months. Alltheseimpactshaveimplicationsforthebio- hypoxia inbottomwatersoftheBayduringwarmer Chesapeake Bay(NRC2004). expended torestoreoysterpopulation levelsin ing programs.Considerableresourcesarebeing tions andunderscorestheneedforsustainedmonitor- es fromthelackofareliablebaselineforcalcula- $156 millionperyear. Therangeintheestimatesaris- of diseaseisestimatedtorangefromUS$75 asaresult The losstotheDelawareBayoysterfishery trade andrestaurants,recreationalfishingtourism. impactsoncommunitylivelihoods,fish fish harvests, The rangeofeconomicimpactsinclude:reducedshell- DIMENSIONS ECONOMIC with disease changes, and the population of sulfur-feeders has not has sulfur-feeders of population the and changes, disease with Chrysaora quinquecirrha Chrysaora recovered. Maryla 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 n d Vir g i n ia ), andincreasedregionsof (MSX) begins fromMortality H. nelsoni Year Intensifies P. marinus (Dermo)

2005 coastlines worldwide. over150 bate thehypoxic“deadzones”afflicting decreased waterqualityandclarity, andwouldexacer- lead tomuchgreaternutrientloads(eutrophication), mals. Removaloflargepopulationsfiltererswould beyond oysters,aswellseabirdsandmarinemam- shellandfinfisheries the marinefoodweb,affecting much widerregion.Theimpactswouldripplethrough impacts ontheproductivityinbaysandestuariesovera in theUSandtoothernationscouldhavedevastating Transfer ofdiseasesoysterstoothercoastalregions CCF-II: SURPRISEIMPACTS oysterpopulations. in northern andMSXdiseasesbecomesestablished scale ifDermo thatcanoccuronalarger view ofthepotentialeffects inChesapeakeBayprovideapre- in theoysterharvest The socialandeconomicconsequencesofthereduction from thewinterwillbelessabletooutgrowdisease. parasites,sothatoystersemerging burdens ofDermo parasites. However, winterswillresultinhigher warmer and bytheabilityofoysterstogrowfasterthando pathogen bodyburdenwhenwintertemperaturesdrop, diseasearethroughreductioninthe vive Dermo mechanismsbywhichoysterssur- mission. Theprimary prevalence andintensity, thusenhancingdiseasetrans- ies. Warming increasedparasite willalsosupport baysandestuar- ease tooysterpopulationsinnorthern dis- latitudeswillfavorthespreadofDermo northern wintersat conditionsandwarmer Continued warming CCF-I: ESCALATING IMPACTS T The long-term effect ofcross-breedingbetweenthe effect The long-term anddoproducelarvae. toadiploid form mals revert able toreproduce),somesmallpercentageoftheseani- oysters. Althoughtheintroducedoystersaretriploid(not restoring reefsinlimitedareasthroughplantingofthese disease.Somesuccess hasbeenobtainedin to Dermo cally modifiedtoincludegenesthatprovideresistance expended indevelopingoystersthathavebeengeneti- hasbeen dances topreviouslevels.Considerableeffort and todevelopapproachesrestorepopulationabun- tounderstandthedeclineinpopulationnumber efforts resourcehasresultedin a commerciallyharvestable of thebiologyandecologyChesapeakeBayas oftheoysterasanintegralcomponent The importance SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS HE FUTURE

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genetically modified animals and native oyster populations is yet to be determined.

Another recent development in the attempts to restore Chesapeake Bay oyster populations is the proposed introduction of a non-native oyster, the Suminoe oyster (Crassotrea ariakensis) into Chesapeake Bay with the WATER intent of developing a viable population that can restore ecosystem services (Daily 1997) and enhance the wild fishery. The apparent rapid growth rate of the Suminoe THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE oyster and its resistance to local diseases makes this an ON THE AVAILABILITY AND QUALITY attractive species for introduction (NRC 2004). OF DRINKING WATER Rebecca Lincoln The scientific basis for making informed decisions about the potential biological and ecological effects of introductions of non-native and/or genetically modified oys- BACKGROUND ter species needs much more thorough study. For example, the potential of altering the genotype of the native Water is essential to life on Earth. Yet clean, safe oyster species by interbreeding with the genetically water supplies are dwindling as demand rises. modified oysters represents an unknown that could Population growth, increases in agricultural and indus- cause unforeseen and abrupt perturbations to the trial demands for water, and increased contamination ecosystem. have already put a strain on water resources. Global climate change threatens to intensify that strain, The concerns associated with introduction of this non- through decreased availability and quality of drinking native species include the introduction and/or enhance- water resources worldwide, and through increased ment of different diseases, the spread of the species to demand on these resources due to rising temperatures. non-target regions, the competition with native oysters and other native species, and the potential for biofoul- According to the World Health Organization (McMichael ing. The present knowledge of the biology and ecology et al. 2003), an estimated 1.1 billion people, or one of of the Suminoe oyster is limited. There are now ongoing every six persons, did not have access to adequate sup- research programs that are focused on studies of the plies of clean water in 2002 and at least 1 billion people physiology and ecology of post-settlement and larval must walk three hours or more to obtain their water NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMS NATURAL Suminoe oysters. However, the introduction of this

| (Watson et al. 2000). A country is considered to be species into Chesapeake Bay will take place prior to experiencing "water stress" when annual supplies fall 86 the availability of the ecological data needed to fully below 1,700 cubic meters per person and “water scarci- evaluate the impact of this species on the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem (NRC 2004). ty” when annual water supplies are below 1,000 cubic meters per person. By these measures, according to The Specific measures include the following: Irrigation Association (a consortium of businesses), 36 countries, with a total of 600 million people, faced either • Develop monitoring systems with sufficient data col- water stress or water scarcity in 2004. lection frequency to differentiate between natural variability and long-term climate If present consumption patterns continue, the United change effects. Nations Environment Programme estimates that two out • Provide funding, infrastructure and resources of every three persons on Earth will live under water- for long-term monitoring of habitat quality. stressed conditions by the year 2025. These dire pro- • Undertake studies that can identify long-term jections do not take into account a changing climate. climate change processes that may result in Many of the world's arid and semi-arid regions cover environmental changes that facilitate the spread of developing countries, and water stress in these coun- bivalve diseases. tries is often compounded by poor infrastructure for col- • Develop management and decision-making lecting, disinfecting and delivering water. A change in structures/policies that include effects of environmen- climate could have a particularly severe impact on tal variability and the potential effects of long-term water quality and available quantity in these regions.

CASE STUDIES climate change. Part2b.qxd 9/27/0612:58PMPage87 Pathways by which climate change can alter health and agriculture via changes in precipitation patterns, water/ice/vapor balanc water/ice/vapor patterns, precipitation in changes via agriculture and health alter can change climate which by Pathways Figure 2.35 systems. andwaterdelivery waterways microbial, nutrientandchemicalcontaminationin Johnson andMurphy2004),whichcanincrease 1999;Levinetal.2002; (Chorus andBartram tures, greaterevaporationandheavyrainevents sources haveallbeenlinkedtoincreasedtempera- tural chemicalsandheavymetalsindrinkingwater algal blooms,andincreasedconcentrationsofagricul- diseases,largefreshwaterandmarine of waterborne snowpack accumulationandwaterquality. Outbreaks waters, groundwateraquifers,surface affect terns Warming waterquality, affects whileprecipitationpat- THE ROLE OFCLIMATE oftheworldincomingdecades. in largeparts manufacturing andrecreationarelikelytogrowcritical waste disposal,agriculture,hydropower, transport, Changes inwaterforconsumption,cooking,washing, etal.2001). onthepoor(McCarthy portionately future changesinclimateareexpectedtofalldispro- In 2001theIPCCfullyrecognizedthatimpactsof water quality and snowpack spring runoff. Source: Rebecca Lincoln Rebecca Source: runoff. spring snowpack and quality water Dro Hi g of Co her Co ug S u ht i rface Water n Decrea I tami n n crea n SomeArea of S ce i n n n SomeArea a s u s tratio ed Evaporatio n ed Precipitatio rface Water, t s i n ns s , Waterbor I Co s n S crea a Precipitatio u n I n O n I rface Water, n tami n Weather d Extreme n crea u crea s tbreak ed R n n e-Di s atio s e i ed Temperat un s Warmer Air n s n n ea of off s e of PolarIce,Sea I n u crea re Glacier s s ed Melt s I n quantities thatflowduringmelting. and mountainsnowicefields,thetiming underground aquifers,thatwhichisstoredinpolar waters,thatwhichisabsorbedandstoredin surface theamountsthatfall,whichisavailablein affect andtemperature.Theseparametersdirectly patterns Water sensitivetoprecipitation quantityisalsovery ness fromWBDOs. drinking watertreatmentgreatlymagnifytheriskofill- 2001). Poorinfrastructureandinadequatecentralized (Roseetal. when combinedsewersystemsoverflow when contaminantsenterbreaksindistributionpipesor tamination withuntreatedwater. Thelattercanhappen process, orenterthewatersupplythroughcross-con- treatment plantandpassthroughthe toa break (WBDO).Themicrobesmustbetransported diseaseout- concentrations toinitiateawaterborne and microbesmustentersourcewaterinrelativelyhigh sourcesofcontamination, trial wastesaretheprimary microbes. Sewageandurban,agricultural,indus- growthandspreadofpathogenic range, survival, Ambient temperaturesandprecipitationinfluencethe Coa crea Warmer Water Temperat I n Sea Level s tr s tal Aq Cha Climate us Global ed Saltwater Ri io s ng n e u i u e n ifer re to s s

Microbial Growth i n a S n d Di I n Sy u crea rface Water s s tem Earlier Spri Temperat Warmer Wi trib s ed s u

tio n u re ngs n R ter s Decrea Decrea S S , un n n owpack, ow Melt off From s s ed ed e, sea level, sea e,

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HEALTH AND ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS 2001). These outbreaks showed a distinct seasonality, becoming more frequent in summer months, and Access to safe, adequate drinking water is considered cyclosporidiosis incidence in Peru was found to peak a primary driver of public health. The World Health during the summer as well, suggesting that temperature Organization estimates that 80% of worldwide disease also plays a role in WBDO patterns (Rose et al. 2001). is attributable to unsafe water or insufficient sanitation (WHO, in Cooper 1997). Waterborne diarrheal dis- During the El Niño event of 1997-1998, with mean eases are the primary causes of water-related health temperatures 3.4°C higher than the average of the problems. previous five summers, reported cases of both cholera (Speelmon et al. 2000) and childhood diarrhea Warmer temperatures can lead to increased microbial (Checkley et al. 2000) in Lima, Peru, increased signifi- and algal growth in water sources. Studies have cantly. The growth of Vibrio cholerae (the pathogen linked yearly outbreaks of gastroenteritis among chil- that causes cholera) and other pathogens responsible dren in Harare, Zimbabwe, to seasonal freshwater for diarrheal diseases accelerates in warm conditions. algal blooms with cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) in The growth of microbial slime in biofilms in water dis- the reservoir that supplies their neighborhoods with tribution systems is also sensitive to temperature, and it water (Chorus and Bartram 1999; Zilberg 1966). In is likely that microbes in biofilms acquire resistance to Bahia, Brazil, a 1988 outbreak of gastroenteritis that disinfectants at high rates (Ford 2002). killed 88 people living near the Itaparica Dam was linked to a large bloom of cyanobacteria in the Due to underreporting of diarrheal illnesses, the preva- dammed lake (Chorus and Bartram 1999; Teixera et lence of waterborne diseases may be much higher al. 1993). than is currently believed (Rose et al. 2001). For the general population, these waterborne diseases are not As increased temperatures and decreased precipita- usually serious, but they can be fatal if water, sugars, tion lead to a decrease in water volume of surface and salts are not replaced. For example, the mortality sources, the concentration of contaminants such as rate for untreated cholera is approximately 50%, while heavy metals and sediments will increase (McCarthy et the mortality rate for properly treated cholera is 1%. al. 2001; Levin et al. 2002). For example, Lake Powell, in Utah, covers 160,000 acres when full, but Vulnerable populations, such as immunocompromised has lost 60% of its volume in recent droughts. As the people (those with weakened immune systems) — water level drops, agricultural chemicals that have including infants, the elderly and pregnant women — NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMS NATURAL been collecting on the lake's bottom since its creation are more susceptible to waterborne diseases. Among | may begin to mix with water traveling through the dam AIDS patients in Brazil, cryptosporidiosis was the most 88 at the base of the lake. This could result in contamina- common cause of diarrhea (Wuhib et al. 1994), and tion of the Grand Canyon, which lies about 75 km 85% of the deaths following a cryptosporidiosis out- downstream (Johnson and Murphy 2004). break in Milwaukee, WI, in 1993 occurred in those with HIV/AIDS (Hoxie et al. 1997). Precipitation plays a large role in waterborne-disease outbreaks. Heavy rainfall can wash microbes into ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS source waters in large quantities, in addition to causing combined sewers to overflow. Microbes are also Based on the midrange 1996 IPCC projections for dou- transported much more easily through saturated soil bling of CO2 (2.5°C, or 4.5°F), Hurd et al. (1999) than through dry soils (Rose et al. 2001). Many stud- project US losses from such parameters as water-quality ies demonstrate a correlation between heavy rainfall changes, hydroelectric power losses, and altered agri- and outbreaks of waterborne diseases, including cryp- culture and personal consumption to be US $9.4 billion. tosporidiosis, giardiasis and cyclosporidiosis (Checkley With a 5°C rise in global temperatures, without et al. 2000; Speelmon et al. 2000; Curriero et al. changes in precipitation, the estimates rise to US $31 2001; Rose et al. 2000; Casman et al. 2001). billion for water-quality impacts out of a total of US $43 Between 1948 and 1994, 68% of all waterborne-dis- billion damage. These estimates, it should be noted, do ease outbreaks in the US occurred after rainfall events not take into account variance and the increasing fre- that ranked in the top 20% of all precipitation events quency of heavy and very heavy rain events accompa- by the amount of water they deposited (Curriero nying warming (Groisman et al. 2004). CASE STUDIES Part2b.qxd 9/27/0612:58PMPage89 water aquifers,contaminating drinkingwatersupplies. this riseinsealevelleadsto saltwater intrusionintofresh- aquifers for drinkingwater,that relyonshallowsurface expansion. Incoastalzones glacial meltandthermal Warming willalsoleadtoariseinsealevel,due last fewdecades(Albrittonetal.2001). tohavehad increasedoverthe already beenobserved of droughtsinsomeregionsAsiaandAfricahave and ingroundwaterrecharge.Theintensityduration watersourcevolume leading toadecreaseinsurface dict decreasedprecipitationinmanyequatorialareas, and currentclimatemodelsbeingusedbytheIPCCpre- ence anincreaseinprecipitation(Levinetal.2002), and droughtconditionsforaridregionsthatdon'texperi- Increased evaporationcouldalsoleadtowaterstress waterworldwide. itation andintheamountofsurface the atmosphereasvapor, leadingtoanetlossinprecip- peratures, willincreasetheamountofwaterresidingin watertem- aswellanincreaseinsurface warming, An increaseinambientairtemperaturesduetoglobal mate changesonwaterresources. ofglobalcli- on page87describesthemultipleeffects diseases.Thechart increased incidenceofwaterborne water,blooms, increasedcontaminationofsurface and algal recharge, increasedmicrobialgrowthandharmful saltwater intocoastalaquifers,diminishedaquifer intrusionof ditions andadecreaseinseasonalrunoff, world. Thesetrendscouldresultinregionaldroughtcon- ofthe and qualityofdrinkingwaterinmanyparts earlier snowmeltallthreatentocompromisethequantity water,evaporation ofsurface decreasedsnowpack,and extreme weatherevents,risingsealevels,increased watertemperatures,increasedfrequencyof surface airand ofwarmer for drinkingwatersupplies.Patterns global climatechangewillhaveseriousconsequences dueto Changes intemperatureandweatherpatterns CCF-I: ESCALATING IMPACTS THE FUTURE a safeandlessexpensivemethodinthefuture. compound theproblem.Solardesalinazationmaybe contribute greenhousegasestotheenvironmentand the fossilfuelsthatareusedtodesalinatewaterwill and energy demandsofthisprocessareenormous, sonable level(Levinetal.2002).Meanwhile,the nological advanceswillbringthecostdowntoarea- demand forsafewaterincreases,itislikelythattech- ithasgraduallybecomecheaper,effective, andasthe While seawaterdesalinizationiscurrentlynotcost- infrastructure, resourcesandadaptivecapacities. will befarworsefordevelopingcountrieswithinadequate on waterresourcesarelikelytobesevereworldwide,they varied andunpredictable.Whileclimatechangeimpacts changes inthehydrologiccyclemakewatersuppliesmore waterbodiesbecomedepleted,and aquifers andsurface competition andmoreviolentconflicts,asdemandrises, in manynations.Water couldleadtointense shortages and hydroelectricpowercouldbeseverelycompromised globaltemperatures, irrigation needsriseduetowarmer tems. Agriculturalimpactscouldbesevere,especiallyas systemsandhealthcaresys- on watersheds,waterdelivery pressure widespread andmorefrequent,puttingenormous andwater-relatedillnessescouldbecomemore shortages tribution andqualityofdrinkingwaterworldwide.Water onthedis- are likelytohaveamarkedandadverseeffect andmoreextremeweatherpatterns Continued warming et al.2002). thanitistoday(Levin health probleminthe21st century diseasewillbeanevenmoreserious that waterborne increasethefrequencyofWBDOs,itislikely patterns temperaturesandmoreextremerainfall Because warmer point inthegrowingseason. snowmelt oftenprovideswaterforirrigationatacrucial asspring in theseregionswillbeadverselyaffected, changes noted(FrederickandGleick1999).Agriculture aresomeofthemostfrequent fall andwinterrunoff inthespringandincreases world; earlierpeakrunoff aroundthe changesinstreamflowpatterns observed outby Gleick 1999).Thesepredictionsareborne (Levinetal.2002;Frederickand rapid springrunoff resultinginanearlierandmore melting andpeakrunoff, willalsoalterthetimingof pack. Itislikelythatwarming falling asrain,decreasingtheaccumulationofsnow mate changewillresultinmorewinterprecipitation Warmer wintersandearlierspringsassociatedwithcli- orfilteringintotheground. of immediatelyrunningoff as snow, andisstoreduntilspringinsnowpackinstead a driersummerandfall.Winterprecipitationfallsmostly stream flowsinthespringduetosnowmelt,followedby andpeak regions isoftencharacterizedbyheavyrunoff Water availabilityinhigh-latitudeandmountainous

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CCF-II: SURPRISE IMPACTS Isolated short-term measures to address these problems are not a sustainable strategy for ensuring safe, abun- Increasingly variable and unpredictable changes in cli- dant water supplies. The likelihood of a drastically mate could result in widespread water shortages, gener- changing climate must be taken into account in making ating mass migrations of displaced persons. Competition planning, management and infrastructure decisions in over scarce resources and conflict over water resources the future (Rose et al. 2000). A combination of infra- in particular is common historically (Gleick 2004), and structure improvement, sustainable planning, watershed drastic changes in climate accompanied by a decrease management, and environmental protection can have in water availability are likely to trigger tension and con- profound effects on the health and well-being of millions flicts between groups that compete for water (McCarthy of people. et al. 2000; Yoffe et al. 2003). Figure 2.36 Village Water Spout Non-linear climate change will also pose a significant challenge for water resource management and planning, since management practices have just began to take linear, small-scale climate changes into account. Modeling water flow regimes under a variety of climate change scenarios is one way to address this problem. Models of US runoff patterns indicate that the timing of the melt and runoff season will shift toward earlier in the spring with an increase in peak runoff, and that winter runoff will increase while spring and summer runoff decrease (Frederick and Gleick 1999). A model of hydrologic flow patterns in central Sweden consistently showed decreased snow accumulation, significant increases in winter runoff, and decreases in spring and summer runoff under a variety of scenarios of increased temperature and precipitation (Xu 2000; Watson et al., 2000). Under the most extreme climate scenarios, mean annual runoff was predicted to change by up to 52%, and annual total evapotranspiration was predicted to

NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMS NATURAL change by up to 23% (Xu 2000). These trends could | have serious and complex implications for water man-

90 agement practices, and highlight the need for current planning and management of water resources that take into acount a changing climate.

SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS Household water is rare in many nations. Absence of running water Structural problems in water treatment and distribution is highly correlated with gastrointestinal illness. systems, such as aging, breakage and the use of com- Image: Pierre Virot/WHO bined sewer systems, need to be fixed. Monitoring for early warning signs of waterborne disease outbreaks, such as increased contaminant loads in source waters, heavy rainfall events, or other extreme weather conditions, could be useful in preparing for and preventing outbreaks. Better protection of source water bodies and their surrounding watersheds will help to prevent problems of contamination and disease in the treatment and distribution phases. CASE STUDIES Part3.qxd 9/27/06 1:01 PM Page 91

PART III: Financial Implications, Scenarios and Solutions Part3.qxd 9/27/061:01PMPage92

92 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS 2 1 With over3trilliondollarsinannualrevenues FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS tained byinsurersisweather-related. oftotalcatastrophelossessus- the largestproportion Owing tothetypesofhazardsthattendbeinsured, reinsurers. insurers maynothaveaslongatimehorizondo patchwork forspreadingrisks(seefigure3.2);and mind thatinsuranceisoneelementofamuchbroader risks” (ABI2004).Nonetheless,itmustalsobekeptin mate change,andtohelpcustomersmanagethese equipped toanalyzethenewrisksthatflowfromcli- of climatechange…anditisinsurerswhomustbe al. 2001;Mills2004).“Insuranceisonthefrontline movers inrespondingtoclimatechange(Vellinga et such, insurersareimpactedbyandstandtobeprime are vulnerabletoclimatechange(seefigure3.1).As andassetmanagement, activities infinancialservices The corebusinessofinsurance,aswellthesector’s with trendsinfinanciallosses. systems loss dataaugmentsthegeophysicalobserving ofinsurance risk spreading.Thegrowingrepository as wellfinancialstrategiesforriskmanagementand tionally involvestechnicalstrategiesforlossreduction among industries.Thecorebusinessofinsurancetradi- across time,overlargegeographicalareas,and Insurance providesamechanismforspreadingrisk revenues werecomparedwithnationalGDPs. global GDP, if andwouldbethethirdlargestcountry ance istheworld’s largestindustry. US $770billion(2002).Source:2005 StatisticalAbstractoftheUnitedStates. expendi $0.07/kWh unitprice;tourismreceipts wereUS$445billion(2002);agriculture$1.2trillion worldmilitary [Surpassing US$60insummer2005]; worldelectricitymarketin2001wasUS$1trillionat14.8 kWhgenerationassumin “technology.” Theworldoilmarket,forexample,isUS$970billion/year atcurrentproductionlevelsof76MbpdandUS$35/bbl asopposedtomoreall-encompassingmeta-industriessuch as ofrevenuesforspecificcommoditiesorservices, Defined interms andrepresentsconsiderablecapacity.formalized systems,suchasTakafulthat arecollectedfromalternative methodsusedintheMuslimworldorso-called“self-insurance,” wh representWestern-style(for example,SwissRe2004b).Datapresentedinthisreport insuranceanddonotincludethepremiume statistics(inUSdollarsandlocalcurrencies)arepublishedinSwissRe’sDetailed country-by-country annualsigma“World Ins “A severe naturalcatastrophe orseriesofcatastrophes couldgenerate “Climate changeisoneoftheworld’s riskscenarios.” toplong-term - John Coomber, Former CEO,Swiss Re (Swiss Re 2004a) -US General Accountability Office (GAO 2005) major insurancemarket disruptions.” 2 It represents8%of 1 ; insur- ture may be done in isolation, effectively suppressing ture maybedoneinisolation,effectively ofdroughtonagricul- example, analyzingtheeffects interrelated vulnerabilities,eventsandimpacts.For events inisolationfromthereal-worldmosaicofoften “stovepipe” approach,examiningspecifictypesof tions. Moreover, thetechnicalliteratureoftentakesa with littleifanyexaminationoftheeconomicimplica- cast fromthevantagepointofnaturalsciences, Most discussionsandclimateimpactscenariosare Harrington etal.2005). 2004 (MusulinandRollins2005;Virkud 2005, spective inadvanceofthefour-hurricaneseason strophic resultsoftheindustry’s failuretoadoptthisper- nearly20yearslaterlamentthecata- while observers considering multiplecatastrophesinasingleyear, of 1980s (AIRAC1986)highlightedtheimportance fromthemid report emerge. Aneye-openingindustry ofevents new andunprecedentedtypespatterns is, oddly, continuedskepticismwhenthespecterof (Musulin andRollins2005).Despitethisrecord,there suited formanagingandpricinghurricaneexposure” such astrendinghistoricalhurricanelosstotals,ill- note that“[Hurricane]Andrewexposedoldmethods, fromFlorida andterroristevents.Observers windstorms ofpreviouslyunimaginedearthquakes, the aftermath system. Thishasbeenseenrepeatedlyinthepast threatstotheinsurance are amongthemostimportant or locationofhazards—human-inducednatural dictable. Unanticipatedchangesinthenature,scale, where hazardsaboundandareincreasinglyunpre- society andsecuritypeaceofmindinaworld tial toeconomicdevelopment,financialcohesionin ofinsuranceisessen- The availabilityandaffordability urance” reports ich isoften “retail” or quivalents tures were g US price Part3.qxd 9/27/061:01PMPage93 implications fordemand(figure 3.1).Riskscanbe have by trendsinnaturaldisasters, which,inturn, demonstrates, insurancepricesarestronglyinfluenced not proactivelypreparedfor. Asthehistoricrecord severe primarilybecausetheyareunanticipatedand always physicallysevere,theirconsequencesare comes. Andwhiletheeventsdepictedherearenot change wouldyieldsignificantlymoreadverseout- ual climatechange.Includingcatastrophicabrupt The triggeringeventsconsideredherearisefromgrad- sures (Best’s Review 2004;Chordas2003). now beingemployedtoprojectlifeinsuranceexpo- catastrophe followingtheattacksof9/11,modelsare tions. Inresponsetotheunanticipatedlifeinsurance the pastratherthanfutureclimateandweatherprojec- But insurers’catastrophe(“CAT”) modelsarebasedon ral scienceandeconomicperspectives(Nutter1996). community havecalledforsuchanintegrationofnatu- individualsfromwithintheinsurance Forward-thinking sectors. that mustabsorbtheimpactsfallonmultiple sector of thebusinessworld,withemphasisoninsurance integrated fashion,focusingonthebroadperspective The approachhereistoexamineeachissueinamore of West Nilevirus—thatmayaccompanydrought. kets andotherhazards—likewildfiresthespread the linkedimpactsonhumannutrition,financialmar- (2003) Re Swiss from Adapted Source: Figure 3.1ReinsurancePricesAreHighlySensitivetoTrends inNaturalDisasters • Increased correlation oflosses(forexample,floods • Changes inthespatialdistribution,strengthand • Changesinthevariabilityofoccurrences: periods: • Changesinreturn TECHNICAL RISKS: related inmarket-relatedfactors. bychanges (technical)andthosedetermined terns divided intothosedrivenbychangesinweatherpat- and disease;droughtsheatwaves): sequence ofevents: o This is a material concern forinsurers,whenseem- o Thisisamaterialconcern o Droughtsincreasevulnerabilitytofloodingfrom occur inoneregion,the o Whenmultiplestorms o HadHurricaneAndrewstruck10milestothe makesitharder o Increasedactuarialuncertainty o Increasedfrequencyofeventsputsnewstrains otherwise coincident. otherwise uncorrelatedeventsareactuallylinkedor ingly subsequent rains. to thelaterones. impacts oftheearlyeventsincreasevulnerability times greater(Hays2005). losseswouldhavebeenthree-tofour- north, to priceinsurance. forpayinglosses. on reserves

93 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS Part3.qxd 9/27/061:01PMPage94

94 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS 3 • ofclaims.Forexample,arise The changing patterns • The inadequateprojectionofchangingcustomer MARKET-BASED RISKS • Novel events,suchasthe1999Lotharwindstorm A trendtowardhybrideventsinvolvingmultiple • in anticipating"hotspots"(geo- • Increased difficulty • Such temporalandgeographic“clustering”of • Increased geographicalsimultaneityofevents(for events (AssociatedPress2005). fro that therewasanincreasedpossibilityofmorbidityormortality excessive heatprogram,areflection ofthedetermination For example,in2005thecityofSeattle, WA, asthecitywasaddedtoUSNationalWeath issueditsfirst-everheatwarning profitability. practicestomaintain adjusting pricingandreserve in and foggyconditionsassociateddifficulty in roadwayaccidentsduetoincreasinglyicy, wet needs arisingfromclimatechange: Brazil in2004: Atlanticaffecting recorded hurricaneintheSouthern so damagingtoFrance’s forestsandthefirst-ever (Francis andHengeveld1998;WhiteEtkin1997): concern sources ofinsurancelossesisparticular hazard. graphic anddemographic)foraparticular sure” intheinsurancelexicon. impacts hasledtotheconceptof“sidewaysexpo- regions/coastlines): by anuptickintidal-surgedamagesmultiple ofcoralmaybefollowed example, abroaddie-off o Theconsequencescanincludeflightfrominsur- insurancetocoverclimate o Thisincludesproperty o Catastrophemodelstodateinadequately o Sealevelriseismulti-facetedrisk,withimpacts o ThisisexemplifiedinthecaseofENSO(El o Insurersspreadrisks(geographically)toreduce practices. ance intootherrisk-managementproductsand faced bynon-compliantandpollutingindustries. adaptation technologiesandnewliabilities a changingclimate(Hays2005). with as themultiple“small”serialeventsassociated include manyemergingnon-lineartrends,as cal isles). fresh groundwatercalled“lenses”underlyingtropi- (via soilerosionandseawaterintrusionintothe on flood,property, healthandcropinsurance floods,mudslidesandwildfire. storms, can involvevariouskindsoflossesfromrain,ice change natureunderclimate—which Oscillation)eventsprojectedto Niño/Southern aggregate losses. well 3 and privateriskmanagementsystems. responses, andconsumerreactionstochangesinpublic hazards, broadereconomicdevelopment,regulatory Ultimately, outcomeswilldependonthenatureof studied theissueforthreedecades(Millsetal2001). have so forUSinsurers,whoseEuropeancounterparts the likelihoodofadverseoutcomes.Thisisespecially business implicationsofclimatechange,heightening regulators, haveadequatelyanalyzedtheprospective companies, andfewoftheirtradeassociations As oftoday, fewerthanoneinahundredinsurance Parallelstressesunrelatedtoweatherorclimate, but • • “Reputational” riskfallingoninsurers(andtheirbusi- measuresinstitutedtocopewithclimate • Regulatory fy thenetadverseimpactoninsurers: compounding withclimatechangeimpactstoampli- they face(Coccia2005). found thatlossofreputationwasthegreatestrisk ofcompaniesintheUK change. Arecentsurvey do enoughtopreventlossesarisingfromclimate whodonot,intheeyesofconsumers, ness partners) outside theinsuranceindustry: change, whichwillincludemeasuresandpractices o These include drawdowns of reserves dueto o Theseincludedrawdownsofreserves Emissions-tradingregulationsandliabilities,orbuild- o ards (Brady2005). haz- “single-season” deductiblesforwindstorm canceling ornon-renewingvictimsandrequired 36,000 homeowners,forbadeinsurersfrom regulators theremandatedreimbursementto some Floridahomeownersinthefallof2004, the wakeoffourdeductibleschargedto changing expectationsofinsuranceregulators.In —suchas ing codesandfactorsinsidetheindustry mium dollarsoutoftheinsurancesector. insurance andothermechanismsthatdrawpre- scandals, andincreasedcompetitionfromself- dence duetofinancialunaccountabilityand or terroristattacks,erosionofcustomerconfi- non-weather-related events,suchasearthquakes m extremeheat er Service’s Part3.qxd 9/27/06 1:01 PM Page 95

RISK SPREADING IN DEVELOPED The insurance sector is playing an increasing role (sur- AND DEVELOPING NATIONS passing international aid) and is the only segment with a growing tendency to pay for consistently rising losses (Mills 2004). There is an intrinsic logic for fostering a The economic costs of recovering from and adapting to greater role for insurance in climate risk management, weather-related risks are spread among governments as loss prevention and recovery are historically integral (domestically and via international aid), insurers, busi- to their business. ness, non-profit entities and individuals.

Figure 3.2 Costs of Natural Catastrophes Are Spread Among Many Parties

Insurers & Reinsurers • Domestic • Foreign Non-Governmental National/Local Organizations & Governments Private Donors • Federal • FAO • State • Red Cross • Local • CARE • Village • Private Foundations

Weather Risks

Foreign Governments FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS & The United Nations Individuals & Firms, | • Bilateral Aid (e.g., USAID) as “self-insureds” • Householders (informally)

• UNOCHA 95 • UNICEF • Companies (formally) • UNDP

Source: Mills et al. 2001 Part3.qxd 9/27/061:01PMPage96

96 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS grown inthedevelopingworld. 4 micro-insur and (Micro-financing markets. insurance global the of part growing a are nations underdeveloped in markets Emerging and EconomiesinTransition: 2004 Figure 3.312%oftheUS$3.2Trillion/Year GlobalInsuranceMarketIsinDevelopingCountries (twice ashigh,onaverage,overthe1980-2000time matically higherthanthoseintheindustrialworld or 11.5%ofthatmarket,withgrowthratesoftendra- sented approximatelyUS$372billion/yearin2004 2004b). Total premiumsintheemergingmarketsrepre- ral disastersbetween1994and2003(SwissRe experienced 25%ofglobaleconomiclossesfromnatu- high andpreparednesslow. IndiaandChinaalone acute inthedevelopingworld,wherevulnerabilityis losses fromyeartoyear. Overallexposuresaremost levelof maintain thecapacitytoabsorbanuncertain must of risksforinsurerstomanage,astheindustry class difficult Extreme weathereventsareaparticularly ditions vary regionally.ditions vary (and upto50%insomeyears).Insurancemarketcon- 1950s toapproximately35%ofthetotalin2004 natural disastershasrisenfromanegligiblelevelinthe ance life-health.Theinsuredshareoftotallossesfrom insurance),withthebal- are non-life(property-casualty Approximately 40%ofcurrent-daypremiumsglobally the middleofthiscentury. kets willrepresenthalfofworldinsurancepremiumsby (See figure3.3)Atcurrentgrowthrates,emergingmar- period), andoftenexceednationalGDPgrowthrates. playing roles in development in some nations.) nations.) some in development in roles playing Source: Swiss Re 2005b Re Swiss Source: The US$5-10billioninclaimsresulting fromthe2004IndianOceanTsunami providedareminderofthedegree towhichinsuranc Mature Markets ($2,871 B) 4 premiums forpoliciesplacedinothercountries. was collectingapproximatelyUS$40billionin through the1990s.Inlate1990s,USalone emerging marketsaveragedmorethan20%peryear and regions.Foreigninsurers’premiumgrowthin and integratesthecostsofriskacrossmanycountries of theinsuranceandreinsurancemarkets,whichpools globalized, largelyduetothemulti-nationalstructure of extremeweathereventsarebecomingincreasingly tive capacity. Moreover, theeconomicconsequences global insurancemarketprovidesconsiderableadap- ed damagestoproperty, morbidityandmortality, the topayforweather-relat- By poolingfinancialreserves toabsorbthecosts. als anddomesticgovernments these risksandtherebyreducingtheneedforindividu- tribute tomanagingandmaintainingtheinsurabilityof Sustainable developmentisaguidelinethatcancon- assume orreasonablypricethesenewrisks. challenging theindustry’s abilityandwillingnessto demand forinsurancewhileincreasinguncertainty, ofeventsstandstoraise The potentialfornewpatterns Emerging ($374 B) Markets Carribean ($49B) Latin Americaand Central andEastern Africa ($38B) Middle East/ South andEastAsia CentralAsia Europe ($42B) ($15B) ($230 B) ance are ance e has Part3.qxd 9/27/06 1:01 PM Page 97

THE LIMITS OF INSURABILITY The scenarios are neither predictions nor doomsday scenarios. Rather, they offer a set of plausible developments Not all risks are commercially insurable. A variety of in the insurance business environment due to climate definitions of insurability are found in the literature that change and corresponding developments in insured differ in detail but share the common theme of accept- hazards, industry responses, and, ultimately, impacts on ing or rejecting risks based on the nature of each risk the financial performance and structure of the industry. and the adequacy of information available about it This approach to building the scenario is similar to that (Mills et al. 2001; Crichton 2002; Pearce 2002). The employed in an exercise commissioned by the US perceived insurability of natural disasters and extreme Department of Defense to explore the implications of cli- weather events may be affected by increases in the mate instability for conflicts over resources and interna- frequency or unpredictability of these events. If the tional security (Schwartz and Randall 2003). The impli- availability of insurance is consequently reduced, devel- cations for specific segments of the industry are exam- opment may be constrained in the emerging markets. ined and the study concludes with an integrated scenario.

In essence, private insurers set a series of conditions CCF-I: ESCALATING IMPACTS that must be met before they will assume a given risk or enter a given market. These conditions — some- In this scenario, weather-related property losses and times referred to as “Standards of Insurability” — are business interruptions continue to rise at rates observed intended to assure the insurers’ financial survival in through the latter 20th century. The insured share case of catastrophic losses (see Table, Appendix A). This process involves technical and subjective judg- increases from a current-day baseline of approximate ments, and history shows that insurers will relax the 25-30%, and underwriting becomes more problematic. standards when profits are high (Swiss Re 2002a). Corporations face more environmentally related litigation (and associated insurance payouts), both as emitters of When private insurers decline to cover a risk, the cost greenhouse gases and from non-compliance with new shifts to others. As a case in point, the risk of residen- regulations (Allen and Lord 2004). tial flood damage in the US is deemed largely uninsurable, which has given rise to a National Flood A new class of losses involving human health and mor- Insurance Program, which has more than 4.2 million tality emerges within the life/health branch of the insur- policies in force, representing nearly US $560 ance industry. These are driven by thermal extremes,

billion worth of coverage (Bowers 2001). reduced water quality and availability, elevated rates of FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS vector-borne disease, air pollution, food poisoning, and |

BUSINESS SCENARIOS injuries/mortalities from disasters and associated mental 97 health problems (Epstein 1999; Munich Re 2005). Other health consequences become manifest in natural POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF systems that directly or indirectly impact humans, includ- CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE INSURANCE ing coral reef bleaching, agricultural diseases or other BUSINESS AND ITS CLIENTS events that hamper food production; animal and livestock diseases; and forest pests. Mobilization of dust, smoke, and CO -linked aeroallergens (pollen and mold) The following pair of business scenarios — based on 2 current socioeconomic trends and insurance market exacerbate already high rates of asthma and other dynamics — represent business impacts arising from forms of respiratory disease. the technical outcomes described in the two CCF scenarios.5 Both scenarios reflect a “business-as-usual” The combined effect of increased losses, pressure on stance on the part of industry, that is, minimal and reserves, post-disaster construction-cost inflation and ris- gradual interventions to alter the world’s energy diet. In ing costs of risk capital result in a gradual increase in the scenarios for CCF-I, triggering events arise from the the number of years in which the industry is not prof- consequences of gradual anthropogenic climate itable. A compounding impact arises from the contin- change, while those in CCF-II correspond to non-linear ued destructive industry practices of underpricing risk impacts. The results are neither worst- nor best-case ren- and routinely allowing the core business to operate at ditions of what the future could bring. a loss, relying instead on profits from investments

5 This is an elaborated version of a scenario developed and published earlier in the course of the CCF project by Mills (2005). Part3.qxd 9/27/061:01PMPage98

98 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS

Table 3.1 Climate Change Threats and Opportunities for the Insurance Industry

• New and existing markets become unviable as climate • New markets/products related to mitigation change increases regional exposure projects/processes • Macroeconomic downturn due to actual impacts • New markets/products related to adaptation projects/processes • Compounding of climate change risk across entire portfolio of converging activities (asset management, • Public/private partnerships for commercially unviable insurance, reinsurance) markets • Technology insurance and/or contingent capital solutions • Unforeseen changes in government policy to guard against non-performance of clean energy technologies due to engineering failure

• Physical damage to insured property from extreme/more • Increases in demand for risk transfer and other services frequent weather events, compounded by unmanaged as weather risks increase development, resulting in volatile results and liquidity and • Insurance of mitigation projects credit rating problems • Increased risk in other lines of business (e.g., • Innovative risk transfer solutions for high-risk sectors construction, agriculture, transport) • Increases in population and infrastructure densities multiply the size of maximum potential losses from extreme weather events

• Increased risk to human health (thermal stress, vector- • Increase in demand for products as human health risk borne disease, natural disasters) rises

• Business interruption risks becoming unpredictable and • Collaboration with others in pooling capital more financially relevant • Microinsurance • Disruptions to construction/transportation sectors • Increased losses in agro-insurance • Weather derivatives, CAT bonds, etc. • Political/regulatory risks surrounding mitigation

• Hidden GHG liabilities impair market values of securities • Investment in climate leaders and best-in-sector securities • Real estate impaired by weather events and increased energy costs • Innovative climate-related theme funds • Potential absence of property insurance • Consulting/advisory services • Hedge funds investing in GHG credits Source: Adapted from UNEP and Innovest (2002), Mills 2004 Part3.qxd 9/27/06 1:01 PM Page 99

(also known as “cash-flow underwriting”). As occurred disaster preparedness and recovery capacity, more after the European windstorms of 1999 (ABI 2004), vulnerable infrastructure due to the lack or non-enforce- insurers encounter liquidity problems when paying loss- ment of building codes, high dependency on coastal es, forcing the sale of large blocks of securities, and agricultural economic activities, and a shortage of which, in turn, creates undesirable “knock-on” impacts funds to invest in disaster-resilient adaptation projects in the broader financial markets. Outcomes are partic- (Mills 2004). Insurers from industrialized countries ularly bad in years when large catastrophe losses coin- increasingly share these losses via their growing cide with financial market downturns. expansion into these emerging markets.

Most significantly impacted are insurance operations in In the face of the aforementioned trends, insurers use the developing world and economies in transition (the traditional methods to reduce their exposures: primary growth markets for insurance — see figure increased premiums and deductibles, lowered limits, 3.4), already generating nearly US $400 billion/year non-renewals, and new exclusions. While consumer in premiums. This arises from a combination of inferior

Figure 3.4 Non-life insurance Life insurance 25% 25% avg. 13.3% 20% 20%

15% 15% avg. 7.2% 10% 10%

5% avg. 3.2% 5% avg. 6.7% 0% 0%

-5% 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 -5% 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98

Emerging markets Industrialized countries Emerging markets Industrialized countries

Insurance in emerging and industrialized markets. FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS

Source: Swiss Re 2000, sigma 4/2000 | 99 Figure 3.5

Non-life insurance Life insurance

Asia Asia

Latin America Latin America

Central and Eastern Europe Central and Eastern Europe

20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Foreign majority shareholding Foreign minority shareholding

Foreign participation in ownership is important in the insurance market Source: Swiss Re 2000, sigma 4/2000 Part3.qxd 9/27/061:01PMPage100

100 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS 6 to the US with the result that offensive airmassesof to theUSwithresultthatoffensive with thatseeninEuropethesummerof2003come catastrophes becomemorecommon.Eventsonapar comparison totheoutcomesinCCF-I.Extremeheat amplifiedin Life andhealthimpactsareparticularly underpin theinsurancebusiness. nificant challengestotheactuarialprocessesthat a substantialincreaseinimpactsanduncertainty, sig- (to adegree)beadjustedto,whereasCCF-IIinvolves CCF-I entailsrelativelypredictablechangesthatcan forinsurersinsofaras also fundamentallydifferent ed stressoninsurersandreinsurers.Thisscenariois ral catastrophesrisesatanincreasingrate,withelevat- Disruptions aregreaterandtheeconomiccostofnatu- ofCCF-I. tointensifytheadverseeffects change serves A shiftfromgradualtonon-linearimpactsofclimate CCF-II: SURPRISEIMPACTS insurance industry. inthe adverse structuralchangealreadyunderway ofunrelated Climate changeacceleratesseveralforms GDP(Mills2004). age ofdonorcountry ral disasterscontinuesitscurrentdeclineasapercent- aidfornatu- Compounding theproblem,international and businessesimpactedbyclimatechange. more ultimatelossesareshiftedbacktotheindividuals limittheircoverage,withtheresultthat and, inturn, fere withbalancingtheirbudgets(Changnon2003) however,strapped governments, findthatclaimsinter- Cash- (for example,forwildfiresandwindstorms). ance forfloodandcroploss,toassumenewrisks insur- emerge toexpandexistinggovernment-provided events. Ascommercialinsurabilitydeclines,demands inhandlingextremeweather increasing difficulty (GAO2005),privateinsurersencounter Office Accountability bytheUSGovernment As warned suchasweatherderivatives. of insurancetoalternatives reduced willingnesstopayandsomeshiftfromtheuse demand forinsuranceincreasesatfirst,itevolvesinto mechanisms. risktransfer of competingself-insuranceandalternative exposure viaglobalizationandagrowingproportion increasedrisk the reducedviabilityofsmallfirms, tion amonginsurers,significantconsolidationdueto loss perhouseholdandUS$500,000 forsmallbusinesses. more than4.2millionpoliciesinforce, representingnearlyUS$560billionincoverage.TheNFIPpays nomorethanUS$250,00 risk ofresidentialfloodingintheUS isdeemedlargelyuninsurable,whichhasgivenrisetoaNationalFlood InsuranceProgra areincreasinglyseeking tolimittheirfinancialexposuresnaturaldisasters.Asacas Even inwealthynations,governments 6 This manifestsasariseincompeti- With acontinuedriseinatmosphericCO year. largehurricaneeach be onaparwiththatofvery US, theincrementalcostofUS$4billion/yearwould health carecosts).Ifa30%increasetookplaceinthe alone asofthemid-1990s(halfwhicharedirect The baselinecostwasUS$13billion/yearinthe about 400millionnewcasesperyearby2025. increase incaseswouldoccur, raisingthetotalto disease. Casesofasthmaincreasesharply. A30% diseaseandcardiovascular tis), lowerrespiratory disease(rhinitis,conjunctivitis,sinusi- upper respiratory considerablyexacerbates more dustandparticulates atures, greaterhumidity, morewildfiresmoke,and The combinationofmoreaeroallergens,risingtemper- industries,basedinindustrializedcountries. offshore interruptions. Includedintheimpactsarewell-insured diseasetowidespreadbusiness inrespiratory upturn nation ofinsuredlosses,withcausesrangingfroman tourism. Acontinuationofthetrendresultsinacombi- es andmanufacturingplants,aswelldisruptionto Kuala Lumpur’s largestharborandmostotherbusiness- Another badyearin2005forcedtheclosuresof billion ineconomicdamages1997(CNN2005). Such associatedeventscausedanestimatedUS$9.3 trol (duetoclimate-changedroughtsandhighwinds). grazing landinthedevelopingworldgrowoutofcon- more firessetintentionallytoclearforestsandcreate ues. Bothacauseandimpactofclimatechange, trend towardsincreasinglydamagingwildfirescontin- totemperatureincreases,thecurrent Also due,inpart, growth ofweeds,pollenandmolds.Additionally, dust wise advanceinthehydrologicalcycle,andensuing erated releaseofmethane),isaccompaniedbyastep- (forexample,fromaccel- winter andsummerwarming tions andearlyarrivalofspring,asignificantjumpin room(s) alreadyhithardbyconstrainedbudgets. pitalizations taxhospitalresourcesinemergency hos- ly seenintypicalsummers.Asidefrommortalities, with correspondingdeathratesfivetimesthatprevious- mum temperaturearebrokeninlargenumbersofcities, margin. All-timerecordsformaximumandhighmini- hottest summersoverthepast60yearsbyasignificant 400% aboveaverage.Intensitiesalsoexceedthe unprecedented lengthrangefromalmost200%toover e inpoint,the 2 m (NFIP),with concentra- 0 per Part3.qxd 9/27/061:01PMPage101 mon. Compoundingtheproblem,increasedCO requirements increaseasdroughtsbecomemorecom- ditions inwhichintroducedpathogensthrive.Irrigation by aresurgenceofpreexistingpathogens,andincon- bivores explodeinsomeareas.Thisisaccompanied damaging.Populationsofinsecther- rust isparticularly globe. Aspikeintheincidenceandrangeofsoybean extent, andtypeofcropdiseasespestsaroundthe The changingclimatealterstheprevalence,spatial examples, hotelsandfactories). demand forinsurancebythecommercialsector(as slowseconomicgrowthandtherebytherateof turn, eases alsohaveadverseimpactsontourism,which,in inemergingmarkets.Thedis- structure, particularly malaria andWest Nilevirus)taxexistinghealthinfra- The increaseininfectiousdiseases(asexamples, tered moldgrowth. value) andchangesinconstructionpracticesthatfos- decade, representing60%ofhomeowners’claims (up morethanfour-foldinTexas comparedtotheprior an underlyingfactofincreasedmoisture-relatedlosses sive litigationandmediaexaggeration,therewasalso 2003).Whilethiswaslargelyduetoexces- (Hartwig 37,000 claimsinTexas aloneintheyear2001 the late1990sandearly2000sasevidencedby theUSin crisis forinsurersinsomeregions(particularly Mold andmoisturedamagehadalreadybecomea quality inmanyregionsoftheglobe. Sahel andChina’s andwildfiresaltersair Gobidesert) from areasplaguedbypersistentdrought(theAfrican cal barrierstotidalsurgedamages. also acceleratethelossofwetlandsandotherbiologi- Climate changeandotherimpactsofhumanactivities into manyaquifers,compromisingwaterquality. diseases. Saltwaterintrudes demics ofvector-borne andtidalsurges, andtheassociatedepi- storminess place, compoundedbysealevelrise,increased and biologicalprocesses.Significantcollapsetakes stress as aresultofwindandwatermovement,thermal Coral reefsweaken(bothphysicallyandbiologically) regions. inseveral outbreaks andextensivetreemortality winters (leavinglittlesnowpack)resultsinbarkbeetle dry ofmulti-yeardroughtsandwarm, cumulative effect and storedgrainsaretodayattributabletopests.The crop lossesofapproximately50%potentialyields tributes tomorevigorousweedgrowth.Worldwide 2 con- eral programasof2005. example, over200cropswerecoveredunderthefed- the exposuretoextremeweatherevents.InUS,for than hadhistoricallybeenthecase,therebyincreasing expanded tocoveramuchlargernumberofcrops the 20thcentury, publiccropinsurancesystems costs backtoindividualsandbusinesses.Attheendof shiftingashareoftheloss well aslosslimits,effectively exposure privateinsurersestablishstrictdeductiblesas wildfireandseveral otherperils.Tostorm, limittheir insurance“backstops”arecreatedforwind- property they largelyconsenttodoso.Newpubliclyfunded toabsorbthecosts,but,forpoliticalreasons, it difficult commercial insuranceisnolongeravailable.Theyfind Public insurancesystemsstepintofillthevoidwhere oneconomicactivity.ening effects Contraction byinsurershasdirectandindirectdamp- lines andshorelinesvulnerabletosealevelrise. alongcoast- is contingentoninsurance,particularly kets, strandingdevelopmentprojectswherefinancing result, insurerswithdrawfromsegmentsofmanymar- Asa pricing thatrendersinsuranceunaffordable. are mosthardhit,withwidespreadunavailabilityor lines oftheinsurancebusiness.Theemergingmarkets oflossesarevisibleinmany The compoundingeffects can beincreased,butatconsiderablecost. trols. Insome(butnotall)cases,adaptivecapacity fire suppression,flooddefenses,andcroppestcon- Examplesincludewild- methods becomelesseffective. Contributing tothechallenge,existingadaptation andRandall2003). placed persons(Schwartz dis- andinternally resources andcareforexternally civil unrestandconflictsgrowoverfood,water insurance systems.Insurersexperiencerisinglossesas oftheworld,puttingstressonpoliticalrisk many parts Environmentally displacedpersonsaremobilizedin structure. their impactsonenergyutilitiesandothercriticalinfra- common, triggeredbyextremeweathereventsand and associatedinsuranceliabilitiesalsobecomemore losses,businessinterruptions to conventionalproperty andothercatastrophicevents.Inaddition windstorms waves (MunichRe2005),aswellfromfloods, losses increaseduringinclementweatherandheat lines ofinsurance.Forexample,vehicularaccidents crosscutting impactsonvariouseconomicsectorsand The specifictechnicaloutcomesdescribedabovehave

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102 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS Figure 3.6Lightning-RelatedClaimsIncreaseWith Temperature responses tothethreatofclimatechange. inproactive would prosperthroughparticipating ones. Inthebestofcases,insuranceindustry tion ofexistingmarketsandthedevelopmentnew include themaintenanceofinsurability, thepreserva- tion andreductionsintherootcauses.Theresultwould asakeyagentofbothclimatechangeadapta- serve could theinsuranceindustry public-private partnerships, consequences described.Especiallyinthecontextof could goalongwaytowardsreducingtheadverse Constructive RolesfortheInsuranceSector(following) also withinreach.Themeasureshighlightedin andmorewelcomescenariosarecertainly Alternative Image: Photodisc Image: ket. Insuranceceasestobetheworld’s largestindustry. climatechangeputsachillontheinsurancemar- warms, currently attributed tocatastrophes.Astheglobe are lation isweak.IntheUS,atleast7%ofbankruptcies succumb totheselosses,especiallywheresolvencyregu- do some havesuggested,anincreasingnumberoffirms maynotbebankrupted,as areas. Whiletheindustry result ofmigrationfromdroughtanddisease-riddenrural a tors suchasurbanization,thoughthisisalsopartly Climate impactsarecompoundedbynon-weatherfac- Average Monthly Temperature (F) 50 40 60 70 80 0 0 04 080 60 40 20 •••• Number ofClaims a lightningstormevent Each symbolrepresents 0 2 140 120 100 development andreductionsingreenhousegases. sustainable related insurancelosseswhilesupporting tices thatsimultaneouslyreducevulnerabilitytodisaster- ance tothepoor, linkedwithtechnologiesandprac- insurance productsandsystemsfordeliveringinsur- Promising strategiesinvolveestablishinginnovative economies intransition—the“emergingmarkets.” in themorevulnerabledevelopingcountriesand true people whohaveaccesstoit.Thisisparticularly of weather-relateddisastersandincreasethepool means ofspreadingtherisksandmanagingcosts asa canenhanceitsefficacy lic-private partnerships nota“silverbullet,”pub- While insuranceiscertainly “in theDNA”ofinsuranceindustry. Laboratories.Losspreventionis such asUnderwriters codes andstandbehindconsumer-safetyorganizations ment (Kovacs2001),helpedestablishthefirstbuilding andownedtheequip- ed theearlyfiredepartments development. Thisisnotnew. Afterall,insurersfound- market-based objectivesandthoseofsustainable its natural disasters,whilesimultaneouslysupporting role indecreasingthevulnerabilitytoweather-related canplayamaterial doing so,theinsuranceindustry orcitizens.In aidorlocalgovernments by international — itcanhelpmanagecoststhatcannotbeaddressed actors only oneelementinapatchworkofimportant posed byweather-andclimate-relatedrisks—itis Although insuranceisnotapanaceafortheproblems INSURERS ANDREINSURERS CONSTRUCTIVE ROLESFOR 6 8 200 180 160 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 (0.6˚C) riseinairtemperature. ground lightingwitheach1˚F There isa5-6%increaseinair- Source: Richard Jones/Hartford Steam Jones/Hartford Richard Source: Boiler Insurance and Inspection Service Inspection and Insurance Boiler Part3.qxd 9/27/06 1:01 PM Page 103

Engagement of the insurance industry could increase avoided 50 to 150 hours of rolling blackouts during the efficacy of sustainable development efforts, while the summer of 2001 (Goldman et al. 2002). Such increasing the insurability of risks, thus making new integrated strategies call for a fundamental change in insurance markets more viable (less risky) for insurers. economic assessment. While adaptation strategies are typically thought of as having net costs, these strate- Emerging markets are especially prone to damages gies also yield mitigation and economic benefits. This from extreme weather events, given their dependence is most readily visible in the case of adaptation meas- on the agricultural sector, water availability and on ures that yield energy savings. For example, a US intensive development in low-lying and coastal areas. $1,000 roof treatment that reduces heat gain (and They can be particularly affected by the spread of dis- lowers the risk of mortality during heat catastrophes) ease and degradation of biological systems and by may yield US $200/year in energy savings, resulting the diversion of scarce resources for relief and recov- in positive cash flow after five years. ery. These impacts can deter future investments by increasing the risks faced by foreign interests. Another case in point concerns indoor air quality, in particular aeroallergens such as mold. When the mold issue first arose, insurers, fearing catastrophic and CHANGING unmanageble losses, excluded coverage (Chen and Vine 1998; 1999). In the interim, insurers have BANK LENDING learned more about building science and ways to pre- empt problems through better building design and GUIDELINES operation, with the result that the situation has begun to shift from a “problem” to an “opportunity” (Perry The financial sector, with long time horizons, can be 2005). the first sector to sense rising risks and growing insta- bilities. The financial sector can also change industrial Coupling insurance for extreme weather events with practices through codes and credit lines. Lending strategies that contribute to public health and sustain- guidelines are being revised by several banks, includ- able development would enhance disaster resilience, ing JP Morgan Chase (Carlton 2005), Citigroup and and reduce the likely magnitude of losses and, thus, the Bank of America. The Equator Principles have help increase insurers’ willingness to establish, main- played a central role in providing guidelines for proj-

tain, and expand a constructive presence in emerging FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS

ect financing with regard to greenhouse gas emissions | markets. and sustainable forestry. Changes in rules and guide-

lines by those who extend credit and insurance can 103 ripple through industry, farming, housing and develop- OPTIMIZING STRATEGIES ment in general. FOR ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION

Certain measures that integrate climate change mitiga- There are numerous measures being addressed by the tion and adaptation can simultaneously support insur- IPCC and others to adapt to a changing climate (Smit ers’ solvency and profitability (Mills 2005). Promising et al. 2001; Yohe and Tol 2002). The measures dis- strategies involve establishing innovative products and cussed under Specific Recommendations for ameliorat- systems for delivering insurance and using new tech- ing the impacts of heat waves can help adapt to cli- nologies and practices that both reduce vulnerability to mate change and stimulate the development of clean disaster-related insurance losses and support sustain- and energy-efficient technologies. Harmonizing meas- able development (including reducing greenhouse gas ures that reduce vulnerabilities and help to stabilize the emissions). As one of many examples, curtailing defor- climate is a principle that can guide public policy, and estation reduces risks such as wildfire, malaria, mud- guide private investment and insurance policies. There slides and flooding, while reducing emissions of green- are other examples of strategic measures that provide house gases. There are also many ways in which adaptation and mitigation (primary prevention of cli- renewable energy and energy-efficient technologies mate change; Mills 2002; 2004a). reduce risks. For example, distributed power systems reduce the potential for business interruptions caused by damages to the power grid (Mills 2003). An aggressive energy efficiency campaign in California Part3.qxd 9/27/061:01PMPage104

104 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS • Enhancedenergysecurity. • Greatersecurityfromgridfailureinthefaceof utility gridsinclude: The benefitsofdistributedgeneration(DG)tocomplement DISTRIBUTED ENERGY GENERATION BENEFITS OF 7 current andanticipatedclimatechangesintoinsurance ards. Thecurrentinabilitytoadequatelyincorporate developing better“intelligence”aboutchanginghaz- To suchinitiatives,insurerswouldbenefitfrom support • • • These include: (Business Insurance2005). For example,AIRWorldwide Corpislinkingcatastrophemodelstoestimateinsured lossestoplateglassasaresultofwindstor catastrophes. overload duringheatwavesordisruptionfromnatural (Mills 2003). to reflecttheassociatedriskmanagementvalue sector other inducementsfromthefinancialservices can befosteredwithlowerinsurancepremiumsor efficiently, withlowergreenhousegasemissions.DG more ated blackouts)andprovidesenergyservices andheat-wave-gener- ure (forexample,fromstorms increasedsecurityfromgridfail- of heat.DGaffords power), plusfuelcellsandcombinedcyclecapture solar,(harnessing wind,tidalandgeothermal homes andinstitutions,utilizingrenewablesources tion (DG)ofenergyincludeson-sitegeneratorsin Distributed EnergyGeneration: of cleanenergytechnologies. marketsintheproduction andinternational internal economic growth).Suchmeasurescanalsostimulate indoor airpollutionanda“climate”favorableto economic benefits(potablewater, nutrition,reduced machines) canhaveimmediatepublichealthand powering smallequipment(computers,sewing pumping water, irrigation,cooking,lighting,and employ solarandwindpowerforpurifying schools, smallbusinessesandagriculturethat Clean Water Distribution: phes androofslessvulnerabletoicedamage. occupants lessvulnerabletoextremeheatcatastro- ofthebuildingenvelopemakes efficiency thermal capacity toextremeweatherevents.Improvingthe gies havecollateralbenefitsthatenhanceadaptive andrenewableenergytechnolo- of energyefficient Energy EfficiencyandRenewableEnergy: Measures forhomes, Distributed genera- A host Image: PowerLight Corporation PowerLight Image: Solar PhotovoltaicPanels efforts toaddresstheissuearefragmented. efforts is largelylacking.Theorganizationalchallengethat interoperability acrossdatasets,models,andsectors Anotherchallengeisthat regarding winterstorms). ofrelevanthazards(seeDailey2005 the effects is theinabilityofcurrentmodelstoadequatelycapture experience (ABI2004).Acentraltechnicalchallenge ofbasingprojectionsfuturelossesonpast luxury In achangingclimate,insurerswillnolongerhavethe be studiedandexpandedupon. early examplesofthistypeinnovation,whichshould events withspecifictypesofinsurance.Therearesome need todoabetterjoboflinkingextremeweather gent orientationsandexpectations.Lossmodelsalso havediver- Practitioners associatedwiththeseefforts intheinsurancebusiness. lize riskinformation (2) modelfutureclimatesandtheirimpacts(3)uti- analyze historictrendsinclimateandextremeweather, to(1) business practicetracesfromdisparateefforts • Helping to jump-start and sustain enterprisesthatmanu- • Helpingtojump-start • Decreasedcostofanddependenceonimported run programsthatoptimizegridresponsetodemand). technologies(computer- hybridand‘smart’ gy-efficient, facture, distributeandmaintaincleanenergy, andener- nations. sources ofenergyfordevelopedanddeveloping 7 ms Part3.qxd 9/27/061:01PMPage105 • Those whoareemittingCO II. However, climatechangemay alsoleadinsurerstoexcludespecificeventsorregionsfromcoverage. leadershipbyexpandingtheassessmentofclimatechangerisks. • Showindustry intheestablishmentandenforcementofprogressivebuildingcodesland-useplanning • Insurer participation toreducerisks. changenecessary • Lobbyforregulatory • Createnewproductsthatincreaseincentivesforbehavioralchangebybusiness. Policies andmeasures: forproactiveriskmanagementbytheinsuranceindustry.I. Climatechangeisanopportunity SUMMARY OFFINANCIALSECTORMEASURES • Spread of disease, natural disasters, drought, floods, desertification anddeforestationare allincreasing. • Spreadofdisease,natural disasters,drought,floods,desertification toinsurers. concern isofparticular • Increaseduncertainty • The processof climatechangeanditsimpactsonhumanhealthareinteractivecomplex,leadingtomulti- III. Multi-facetedrisksposedbyclimatechangearea barrier toaction,makingitchallengingseparate • Insurers insome casesarenolongerabletopredictfutureriskbasedonthepast,givenincreasingly valuedtoprovide • New climaterisksforhealth,agriculture,forestsandtheeconomyarenotyetsufficiently development. Thispotentialisexemplifiedbyashiftin isanobstacletomarket the currentlackofinformation facilitating availabilityofinsuranceinregionswhere the qualityandapplicabilityofdatariskanalyses, mate-modeling communitiescouldsignificantlyimprove Increased collaborationbetweentheinsuranceandcli- 1996) our ownselfinterestandinthepublicinterest.” (Nutter the naturalscienceswithactuarial—in is incumbentuponustoassimilateourknowledgeof of climatechangeimpacts,statingtoitsconstituents,“It andimperativeforintegratedassessments opportunity The ReinsuranceAssociationofAmericahasnotedthe reputation risks. ness, erodedprofitability, and aswellregulatory from incorrectpricing,excessiverisk-taking,lostbusi- sis resultsinunacceptablecoststoinsurers,ranging pointoutthatpoordataandanaly- observers Industry guidelines: ple direct and indirect effects forinsurers andotherbusinesses. ple directandindirecteffects unpredictable weathereventsandpatterns. cannot bepriced(althoughregulatorshaveshownstrong reluctancetoallowthisinsomecases). specific coverage.Instead,thesenewrisksmayrequire insurers toraisepricesorpotentiallyexcluderisksthat behavior topremiums. and quantifyitsuniqueimpactonhumanhealth. o The insurance industry wasresponsibleforthefirstbuildingandfirecodesinUS. o Theinsuranceindustry 2 are not those who are most affected by its results, making it difficult todirectlylink byitsresults,makingitdifficult are notthosewhomostaffected Association ofBritishInsurers(2004): In thewordsofAndrewDlugolecki,onbehalf hazard(SwissRe2002b). particular change intheperspectiveofinsurersregardingthis previously hadbeenviewedasuninsurable,asea- towardsacceptingfloodriskswherethey the industry It is easy to portray climate change as a threat. threat. a as change climate portray to easy is It It certainly poses significant challenges to insurers. to challenges significant poses certainly It But it also offers a range of opportunities, not just just not opportunities, of range a offers also it But in offering new products to meet customers' changing customers' meet to products new offering in needs, but in keeping the industry at the heart heart the at industry the keeping in but needs, of society, meeting community and national needs national and community meeting society, of whilst properly pursuing profit. Insurers will only be only will Insurers profit. pursuing properly whilst able to provide risk transfer, investment and employment and investment transfer, risk provide to able opportunities so long as they are both solvent and solvent both are they as long so opportunities generating sufficient margin to invest in the future. the in invest to margin sufficient generating This puts a dual duty on insurers: to operate operate to insurers: on duty dual a puts This profitably today and to prepare for the future. the for prepare to and today profitably

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106 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS Image: Photodisc Image: Wind Farm reduce risksinthecourseofachievingthosegoals. guideposts withwhichtofosterandmeasuresuccess,mixedstrategieswillbeneededmanage presently coveredbyinsurers.TheMillenniumDevelopmentGoalsthatdrivetheUnitedNationsprogramsprovide environment,societyisincreasingly vulnerabletonewrisksthatarenot As aresultofthecurrentuncertain canalsoprovideincentivesforinsurerstoenternewmarkets. • Governments canplaytheroleofinsurerlastresort. • Government aidagenciestoprovideinsurance tocollaboratewiththeUNandinternational • There maybeopportunities regulations. • Insurersmaynothavetheoptionofpullingoutmarketsduetogovernment • Emergingmarketsforinsurancearegrowingattwicetherateofmaturemarkets. • Risk exclusionstrategywillshrinkexistingmarketsandreduceinsurerabilitytopursuehighgrowthinemerging V. Ultimately, togrowtheirbusinessinanincreasinglyglobalizedeconomy, insurerswillneedtoproactively inthedevelopedand theclimateofinvestmentandimpactportfolios canaffect • Such uncertainties • Similarly, someoftheregionsmostpronetoextremeweathereventsandenvironmentaldegradationarein bythegrowingrateoftropicaldiseases,suchasmalaria(thatis,poorin • Many ofthegroupsmostaffected IV. There aresomerisksthatwillnotaffectthebottomlineofinsurersforforeseeable future • Social andeconomicfactorsindevelopingcountriesincreasevulnerabilitytoclimatechangemaylackthe in developingcountries,usinginnovativeproductssuchasmicro-insuranceandmicro-finance. markets, makingitanunattractivestrategy. developing world. developing world—andcurrentlyhavelittleornoaccesstoinsurance. developing countries),arenotlikelytobeinsuranceclientsinthenearfuture. capacity toadapt. consider climatechangeriskinalloftheirglobalmarkets. but canhaveahugeimpactonmillionsofpeopleandthequalitylifeworldwide. Part3.qxd 9/27/061:01PMPage107 taking action. als intotwocategories—fostering awarenessand havedividedpropos- editors andauthorsofthisreport Withthisinmind,the benefit fromtheopportunities. expansive dialogue,societiescanreducerisksand of societyisneeded.Withcarefulsteeringandan Yet changeisnecessary, andinvolvement ofallsectors daunting. ious stakeholderscanbeparticularly initiate, muchlesssustain.Coordinatingactionsbyvar- to themisoftendifficult the politicalwilltoundertake Multiple measuresatvariouslevelsarerequired,but rapidly changingclimateoftenseemsoverwhelming. The globalnatureoftheproblemsassociatedwitha POLICIES ANDMEASURES nomically productive,cleanenergytransition. “infant”industriesandsustainaneco- can jump-start financialinstitutions andinternational from governments economicincentives ance coverage,andc)sufficient a) focusedlendingandinvestment,b)targetedinsur- Thecombinationof society canseizetheopportunities. Together, finance,UNagencies,scientists andcivil able development(EpsteinandSelber2002). the environmentandoursecurityachievingsustain- steptowardimproving of oilisthefirstandnecessary ly tiedtoourdependenceonoil.Exitingfromtheage tectonic shifts—thefirsttwomaybedirectlyorindirect- investment sectors—climateinstability, terrorismand Of thethreeemergingexposuresforinsuranceand future isinsurable. structure introuble,insurersmaysoonbeaskingifthe and allofnature’s processes.Withtheenergyinfra- ofallouractivities the globe.Energyliesatheart of bances whentheybegintopercolateinmanyparts systemoftheglobaleconomy,nervous sensingdistur- —isthecentral portfolio a diversifiedinternational The financialsector—havingalongtime-horizonand from acleanenergytransition. underestimated themanifoldbenefitswecanderive change andthecostswewouldincur, wemayhave would change,thebiologicalresponsestothat Just asweunderestimatedtherateatwhichclimate AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONCLUSIONS development. damental changetoachievecleanandsustainable measuresforfun- national financialinstitutionsformulate andinter- sectors andhelpingbusinesses,governments has acentralroletoplayinbuildingawarenessall andpolitical choices.Civilsociety sumption patterns release intotheenvironment—drivenbytheircon- print —theamountofcarbontheirownactivities about theirowncarbonfoot- And citizenscanlearn hurricanes andtyphoons. paying attentiononlytolarge,obviouseventssuchas kets sometimesmissthe“signals”comingfromclimate, balance sheetsandmarketpossibilities.Capitalmar- professionals canaddclimatescreenstotheirstudyof andcapitalmarket for climaterisksandopportunities, Investors andfinancialanalystscanevaluateportfolios ers throughinteractivedialogues. future andsharethisknowledgewithotherstakehold- predictorofthe the pastbecomesalessinformative on climaterisksas information amass morepertinent Insurerscan life andhealth,financialservices. andcasualty,their corebusiness,includingproperty For insurers,climatechangechallengesallaspectsof address thechallenges. ahead, companiescanidentifywaystoprofitably activism withincivilsociety. Intheenergytransition gation, legislation,shiftsinconsumerchoicesand physical andemergingbusinessrisks—includingliti- canbetterunderstandtheirownexposurestothe Firms ate environmentallydestructivepractices. misaligned incentivesandmarketsignalsthatperpetu- ways. Specialattentionshouldbegiventoidentifying science inordertoframeregulationsclimate-friendly needtounderstandthe Regulators andgovernments usisatstake. ecosystems thatsupport change. Thehealthoflargeregionalandglobal public astothescienceandimpactsofclimate bodiesandthe international regulators, governments, businesses, tional programisneededtobetterinform towards takingcorrectivemeasures.Abroadeduca- mate changeandsensitizingothersisthefirststep posedbycli- Understanding therisksandopportunities EXPOSURES ANDOPPORTUNITIES FOSTERING AWARENESS OFCARBONRISKS,

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108 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS ence howourfutureunfolds. consumption decisionsandpolitical choicesthatinflu- workplaces, communitiesand municipalities)canmake which theyareactive(schools, religiousinstitutions, to catalyzeprogress.Individualsandtheinstitutionsin anddeveloppartnerships Each sectorcanplayapart tions inthefuture. gency plansforevenbolder, morerapidtransforma- whilemakingcontin- term, structive stepsintheshort ”Imagining theunmanageable”canhelpustakecon- ofGreenland). (such asslippageofportions with widespreadimpactsandevenclimateshocks The scenarioprocessenablesustoenvisionafuture ourlives. mate changeaffects educational processandhowrapidlytherealityofcli- make inourcommonfuturewillbeafunctionofthe pheric concentrations.Howlargeaninvestmentwe tostabilizeatmos- reduction inemissionsisnecessary 2012, whiletheIPCCcalculatesthata60-70% reduction ofcarbonemissionsbelow1990levelsby of theresponse.TheKyotoProtocolcallsfor6-7% needed. Thechiefissueistheorderofmagnitude A setofintegrated,reinforcingpolicymeasuresis andinstitutionalframeworkdesignedto • A regulatory incentives(MyersandKent • Elimination ofperverse • Significant, financialincentivesforbusinesses stakeholders. Aframeworkforsolutionsisthefollowing: byall efforts gases, andthiswillrequireconcerted The nextstepisreducingtheoutputofgreenhouse CARBON EMISSIONS ACTION: SEIZINGOPPORTUNITIES ANDCUTTING thebasisofthoseassessments. can form economies. Lifecycleanalysisofproposedsolutions regarding theirrepercussionsforhealth,ecologyand use ofnuclearpower, mustundergothoroughscrutiny carbon sequestration,coalgasificationandexpanded systems. Thoseaimedatclimatemitigation,including be fullyevaluatedastotheirimplicationsfornatural ease, suchasgeneticallymodifiedorganisms,needto Those intendedtoadaptclimatechangeanddis- Finally, newtechnologiesneedtobecleanandsafe. the generationofwastes. promote sustainableuseofresourcesandconstrain environmentally destructivepractices. 1997) thatsubsidizecarbon-basedfuelsand and consumers. transition. Capitalmarketscan fosterthedevelopment hybrid technologiesandhelp drivethecleanenergy vide stimulusforsolar, tidaland wind,geothermal, Project financeandnewfinancialinstrumentscanpro- direct capitaltowardrenewableenergytechnologies. investors suchasstateandunionpensionfunds,can Investors atalllevels,andespeciallyinstitutional beneficial technologies. society’s futureenergy dietandspeeddevelopmentof early 20thcentury. Policiestodaycouldhelpredirect ple, thatenabledtheconstructionofskyscrapersin age onlyforbuildingswithsprinklersystems,exam- of theriskawayfrominvestors.Itwasinsurancecover- cial behaviorbycreatingproductsthattransfersome caninfluencecommer- gies, andtheinsuranceindustry ception canbeanobstacletoadoptingnewtechnolo- striving tobecomegreenhousegasneutral.Riskper- and newproductscansetthepaceforothers ment oflowcarbontechnologiesthroughtheirpolicies Insurers, alongwiththeirclients,canfacilitatedevelop- measures areadopted. ty ofresourcewarsthatmayloomifonlytemporizing best practicescanhelpreducethenumberandintensi- innovation beingdeveloped.Theglobalsharingof ly (‘footprintneutral’)projectsisjustonecommercial ofthepricetopursueclimatefriend- that setasidepart nations. Encouragingconsumerstopurchaseproducts nologies andmanufacturingcapabilitytodeveloping zations andbusinesses,canhelptransfernewtech- organi- with international inpartnerships Governments, coming climate. tems andplancitiestomeettherequirementsof sys- buildings andnewinfrastructure,improvetransport islands. Otherindustrieswillbeneededtoconstruct ecosystems andtheGulfcoast’s barrierwetlandsand Large programsareneededtorestoreFlorida’s nomic activities—isthetaskofecologicalrestoration. challenge—thatcanspawnmanyeco- An enormous businesstools. and theuseofvirtual age carbon-reducingmeasures,suchastelecommuting andencour- make theirownfacilitiesenergy-efficient can mental andsocialrisksinprojectfinancing.Firms assessing climate-relatedrisksandspecifyingenviron- Equator Principles,toguidefinancialinstitutionsin develop codes,suchasthoseenunciatedbythe those ofCeresandtheCarbonDisclosureProject, commitment toprinciplesofsustainability, suchas Corporate executivemanagementscandeclaretheir Part3.qxd 9/27/061:01PMPage109 • Trading inderivatives. • Carbontrading. Indirect incentives: trained forpublicservices, support • oftradeand“conditionalities”foraidthatundermine Debts, unequalterms • Subsidiesandtaxbreaksforoilcoalexploration. incentivesthatneedtobereevaluated: “Perverse” investmentandgeneratefunds. • Currencytradingtaxesthatencouragelong-term • Carbontaxesthatdiscouragefossilfueluseandgeneratefunds. Negative incentiveoptions: cleandevelopmentfundsto: • International • Subsidiestoprimenewtechnologies. • Tax incentivesforproducersandconsumers. Positive incentiveoptions: • Makingalargeinvestmentofpublicdollarsinthenewenergyinfrastructure. andfinance. • Optimizinginterestratesatalevelthatbestbenefitconsumers,industry • Alteringprocurementpracticestohelpcreatenewdemand. • Financingpublicprogramsthatfosterlow-carbontechnologies. frameworkforcarbon. • Aregulatory infant forvehicles,appliances,buildingsandcityplanningtojump-start • Standards ofenergyefficiency Such measuresinclude: cancreateasoundpolicyframeworkandmakeuseofmarketmechanisms. Regulators andgovernments FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS personnel, researchandsustainableenvironmentalpractices. industries andsustainthegrowthofothers. o protectcommonresources(forests,watersheds,marinehabitats). o transfernewtechnologies.

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110 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS tries and transport becamebankrupt. tries andtransport indus- nations dependentonoilto power theirfarms, endowed with“black”oryellow gold,numerous from US$38toover$600. Savefornations from US$3abarrelto$30,andgoldshotup the OPECoilembargo,pricesincreasedtenfold were allowedtofloat.Theresultwasthat,following goods couldnowbemovedfreelyandcurrencies ment ofthesecondandthirdrules:Capitalaswell strained USfiscalbalances,precipitatingtheabandon- undone. MountingoutlaysfortheVietnam War In 1972,however, theBrettonWoods rulescame growth inthepost-warperiod. job trainingandjobsthatcombinedtoprimesustained GI Billstimulatedhousingconstruction,newcolleges, IntheUS, and regeneraterobusttradingpartners. The MarshallPlanprovidedfundstorebuildEurope component. necessary The financialincentivesthatfollowedprovedtobethe formed. standards andgoals,theUnitedNationswas the UniversalDeclarationofHumanRightssettingnew In thesameperiod,EleanorRooseveltshepherdedin Fund. Monetary 2. TheInternational 1. BankforReconstructionand The International New institutionswereestablished: 3. Fixedexchangerates. 2. Constrainedtradeincapital. 1. Freetradeingoods. Three newruleswereagreedupon: new developmentparadigm. of SirJohnMaynardKeynes,thedelegatescrafteda vent subsequentglobalconflict.Undertheleadership 1919 afterWorld War Ihadbeeninadequatetopre- needed. TheLeagueofNationsestablishedinParis order. Newrules,incentivesandinstitutionswere Mountains ofNewHampshiretoplotoutanewworld the BrettonWoods conferencecenterintheWhite Great Depression,worldleadersgatheredin1944at With Europeinshamblesaftertwoworldwarsandthe COMES NEXT? 1944: WHAT BRETTON WOODS Development (TheWorld Bank). daily today.) Thenthemarketbubbleburst. US $18billionadayin1972to$1.9trillion trade incurrencies.(Currencytransactionswentfrom developed nationsskyrocketed,asdidthespeculative technologyin In the1990sgrowthininformation public sectorsandweakenedmanynationstates. ing conditionsplacedonsubsequentloansundermined in, andthedebtcrisis,risinginflationbelt-tighten- flowing outofthedevelopingworldthanwas By 1983,thelineshadcrossed:Moremoneywas most sectorsofthedevelopingworld. disease, diabetesandcancer)—failedtooccurfor ills moreprevalentindevelopednations(suchasheart ment —fromtropicaldiseasesandmalnutritiontothe “epidemiological transition”associatedwithdevelop- foodtomeetdebtpayments.Theprojected export deeper intodebtandclearedforeststoplantcrops schistosomiasis),manynationsslipped snail-borne unknowingly spreaddiseases,suchasmalariaand purchase oilandfundhugehydropowerschemes(that financialinstitutionsto With loansfrominternational (Epstein andGuest2005). for amorestableandsustainablyproductivefuture the discussionstohowbestconstructscaffolding with civilsocietyandtheUnitedNations,canconvene sector,of expandingriskprofiles,thefinancialservices trajectory transition. Havingappreciatedthelong-term political influence—hasauniqueroletoplayinthis instrumentsand monetary globally diversifiedportfolio, society anddevelopingnations.Finance—withits were notincludedinBrettonWoods —women,civil democratically willmeanincludingstakeholdersthat ment arethepivotaldecisions.Makingdecisions How wedevelopandhowpowerthatdevelop- vation andsustained,healthygrowth. isafuturerichwithinno- and conflict.Thealternative lapse or, worse,anauthoritarianresponsetoscarcity drivers fordevelopment?Withlaissez-faireweriskcol- and wellbeingresumetheircenter-stagerolesasthe creation ofcleanwatersystems.Willpublichealth sanitationand the modern drove environmentalreform, ago urbanepidemicsofcholera,TBandsmallpox development priorities?Onehundredandfiftyyears economic crisesleadtoaconsciousrestructuringof Will today’s confluenceofenvironmental,energyand •••• Part3.qxd 9/27/061:01PMPage111 large-scale solutionsthatcanrestabilizetheclimate. pare toputinplacefinancialmechanismsimplement and minimizethecasualties.Andwemustalsopre- to respondrapidlysucheventslimitthedamages change willbring(NAS2002).We mustbeprepared events andthe“inevitablesurprises”thatclimate Planning isneededtoprepareforfuturecatastrophic news isthatunstablesystemscanberestabilized. ways. Butitmayalsobringmajorsurprises.Thegood Climate maychangeingradualandmanageable PLANNING AHEAD andinexpensive. nologies effective tech- andenergy-efficient research tomakealternative out anexpandedprogramofbasicandapplied andincarrying stimulating public/privatepartnerships bodieshavecentralrolestoplayin and international ment ofclimate-friendlytechnologies.Governments can focustheiringenuityonthecollaborativedevelop- the properincentiveandrewardstructure,researchers reduceanticipateddamages.With public andindustry systemstohelpthe Scientists canmodelearlywarning industries inacarbon-constrainedfuture. productsthatmaybecomegrowth carbon-offsetting companies andpoornations,openthedoorto revenue streamforcarbonproducers,energy-efficient Carbon tradingcanpotentiallybecomeaseparate marketsincarbonsecurities. and promotesecondary of carbon-riskhedgingproducts,suchasderivatives, engine ofgrowthforthe21st century. nity tobuildacleanandhealthy of climatechangepresentsanopportu- rity andglobalstability. Thechallenge secu- basis forfargreaterinternational economic benefits,andcanlaythe mous publichealth,environmentaland of thefossilfueleracanhaveenor- A properlyfinancedtransitionout Page 110). more positiveoutcomes(seesidebaron established aworldorderwithmuch conference inBrettonWoods, NH,and 1944, whenworldleadersconveneda sequent conflict.Anotherpointcamein andseededsub- ments setnationsapart such amoment,butthedivisiveagree- The BerlinConferenceof1884was goals andkeydriversofdevelopment. been madetodeliberatelymanagethe At somepointsinhistory, have efforts

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112 | APPENDICES Appendix A. Summary TableAppendix A.Summary ofExtremeWeather EventsandImpacts Part3.qxd 9/27/061:01PMPage113 Summary TableSummary ofExtremeWeather EventsandImpacts(continued) Note: Adapted from IPCC (Vellinga et al. 2001); last row (elevated CO (elevated row last 2001); al. et (Vellinga IPCC from Adapted Note: 2 **** Changes in regional distribution of tropical cyclones are possible but have not been esablished. been not have but possible are cyclones tropical of distribution regional in Changes **** * Likelihood refers to judgmental estimates of confidence used by Working Group I: very likely (90-99% chance); likely likely chance); (90-99% likely very I: Group Working by used confidence of estimates judgmental to refers Likelihood * *** Information from Working Group I Technical Summary, Section F.5. Section Summary, Technical I Group Working from Information *** ** High confidence refers to probabilities between 2-in-3 and 95% as described in Footnote 4 of SPM WGII. SPM of 4 Footnote in described as 95% and 2-in-3 between probabilities to refers confidence High ** (66-90% chance). Unless otherwise stated, information on climate phenomena is taken from Working Group I, Summary I, Group Working from taken is phenomena climate on information stated, otherwise Unless chance). (66-90% for Policymakers and Technical Summary. These likelihoods refer to the observed and projected changes in extreme cli- extreme in changes projected and observed the to refer likelihoods These Summary. Technical and Policymakers for mate phenomena and likelihood shown in columns 1 to 3 of this table. this of 3 to 1 columns in shown likelihood and phenomena mate 2 2 ) not included in original version. original in included not )

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APPENDIX B. ADDITIONAL FINDINGS AND METHODS FOR US ANALOG STUDIES OF HEAT WAVES

This appendix covers the details of the heat wave case study and the methods used to carry out the analog studies for five US cities.

Maximum and minimum temperatures are equally important in understanding the oppressive nature of the heat wave during the analog summer. For 24 days nighttime temperatures tie or break high minimum temperature records, and for 11 days they tie or break the all-time high minimum temperature record of 28°C (82°F). Eight of the 11 days are consecutive, and such a string would undoubtedly have a very negative impact on the population of the city.

In Washington, DC, 11 days record maximum temperatures at or above 41°C (105°F). However, the most intense heat for the analog summer occurs in St. Louis, where an all-time maximum temperature record of 46°C (116°F) is achieved on July 14 plus 8 days record temperatures of 44°C (110°F) or higher. Some minimum temperatures never fall below 32°C (90°F), and an all-time high minimum temperature record of 34°C (93°F) is set on August 9 in St. Louis.

The normally cooler cities of New York City and Detroit are not spared in the analog event. For New York, four days break the all-time maximum temperature record and two days achieve the same for minimums. One day reaches 44°C (110°F) and 11 straight days in August have minimums exceeding 27°C (80°F). Detroit breaks two all-time maximums, and has a string of seven out of eight days breaking all-time minimums. Fourteen days in Detroit exceed 38°C (100°F) during the analog summer, including a nine-day consecutive string in August.

Methods

APPENDICES First, the Paris event is characterized statistically, and these characteristics are transferred to the selected US cities.

| Second, the hypothetical meteorological data-set for each city is converted into a daily air mass calendar through use of the spatial synoptic classification. A large body of literature suggests that humans respond negatively to cer-

114 tain “offensive air masses,” which envelop the body during stressful conditions (Kalkstein et al. 1996; Sheridan and Kalkstein 2004). Rather than responding to individual weather elements, we are affected by the simultaneous impact of a much larger suite of meteorological conditions that constitute an air mass.

The spatial synoptic classifications are based on measurements of temperature, dew point temperature, pressure, wind speed and direction, and cloud cover to classify the weather for a given day into one of a series of predetermined, readily identifiable, air mass categories. They are:

1. Dry Polar (DP) 5. Moist Moderate (MM) 2. Dry Moderate (DM) 6. Moist Tropical (MT) 3. Dry Tropical (DT) 7. Moist Tropical Plus (MT+) 4. Moist Polar (MP)

An evaluation of the air mass frequencies for the analogs to the 2003 Paris heat wave in the five US cities provides a clear picture of how exceptional this event would be (Table B.1). On average, Philadelphia, for example, experiences offensive air masses MT+ or DT in June, July, and August, 15.2%, 16.5%, and 11.3% of the time, respectively (or 14.3% averaged over the three-month summer period). Applying the 2003 analog to Philadelphia, these values increase to 50%, 38.7% and 58%, respectively. Part3.qxd 9/27/06 1:01 PM Page 115

Table B.1 Summer Percentage Frequencies of Offensive Air MassA Days for the Five Cities

Difference: Difference: Analog vs. Hottest Analog vs. City AverageB Analog Average Summer Hottest Summer

Detroit 9.2% 48.9% 431.5% 38.0% 28.7% New York 11.2% 48.9% 336.6% 26.1% 87.3% Philadelphia 14.3% 48.9% 242.0% 41.3% 18.4% St. Louis 17.7% 48.9% 176.2% 42.4% 15.3% Washington, DC 13.7% 48.9% 256.9% 34.8% 40.5%

A Offensive air masses are MT+ and DT. B Average for period 1945-2003. Source: Sheridan, 2005.

Table B.2 Heat-Related Mortality During the Average, Analog, and Hottest Historical Summers

Detroit New YorkPhiladelphiaSt. Louis Washington Metropolitan area 4.4 9.3 5.1 2.6 4.9 populationA million million million million million Average summer heat-

47 470 86 216 81 APPENDICES related mortality B | Average summer mortality 1.07 5.05 1.69 8.30 1.65 rate per 100,000 population 115 Analog summer heat- 582 2,747 450 627 283 related mortality Analog summer mortality 13.23 29.54 8.82 24.12 5.78 rate per 100,000 population Hottest historical summer 308 1,277 412 533 188 mortalityC Hottest historical summer mortality rate per 100,000 7.00 13.73 8.08 20.50 3.84 population Year of hottest historical 1988 1995 1995 1988 1980 summer occurrence Analog percent deaths above hottest historical summer 89.0 115.1 9.2 17.6 50.5 A Based on 2000 U.S. Census Bureau data. B Numbers represent revised values. C Based on a period from 1961-1995. Part3.qxd 9/27/061:01PMPage116

116 | APPENDICES tude tothosefromcatastrophicevents(Vellinga etal.2001). losses collectedbyMunichRebetween1985and1999indicatethatsucharecollectivelyequalinmagni- only tabulateslossesfromeventscausingoverUS$25millionininsuranceclaims).Dataontheserelativelysmall (which ClaimsServices gradual eventsthatarenotcapturedbyinsurancemonitoringsystemssuchasProperty iscaughtunawares,however,The industry byanequallylargenumber of lossesfromrelatively“small-scale”or andloss-preventionprograms. largelyexpectsthisanddoesitsbesttomaintainadequatereserves The industry (106 4 3 2 1 losses reachUS$50billion(in$2004dollars)bytheyear2025. overthepast50yearscontinue,averageannualinsured steadily (SwissRe2005).Assumingthattrendsobserved due tocatastrophicevents—averagingapproximatelyUS$20billion/yearinthe1990scontinuesrise Property: Damage toPhysicalStructuresandOtherStationary $44.6 billion)in2004(allvaluesinflation-correctedtodollars,MunichReNatCatSERVICE). age ofcatastrophiclossesnearlytripledfrom11%inthe1960sto26%1990sandreached42%(US Katrina andRita,2005had,bySeptember, brokenall-timerecordsyetagain. Meanwhile,theinsuredpercent- es in2004,includingnon-weather-relatedlosses,wereUS$123billion;SwissRe2005a).WithHurricanes weather-related lossesfromcatastrophicandsmalleventswereUS$107billion,settinganewrecord.(Total loss- 1950s, toUS$46billionperyearinthe1990s,andalmostdoublethat2004.In2004,combined Overall costsfromcatastrophicweather-relatedeventsroseanaverageofUS$4billionperyearduringthe APPENDIX C.FINANCE:PROPERTY INSURANCEDYNAMICS days breakrecords.Inaddition,fourtheall-timemaximumtemperaturerecordforPhiladelphia,41 days intheanalogsummerbreakmaximumtemperaturerecords,andfromAugust4toAugust13,nineoften During thehottest-recordedsummeroverpast59years,1995,thisthresholdwasreachedonlyonce.Fifteen 38 recorded history. UsingPhiladelphiaasanexampleagain,15daysrecordedmaximumtemperaturesthatexceed Maximum andminimumtemperaturesduringtheanalogsummerarefarinexcessofanythingthathasoccurred airmassdayslastedatleasttwodays. airmassdays,butwithseveralbreakswhennon-offensive 20 offensive consecutive days,itwasstillfarlessextremethantheanalogsummer. FromJuly13toAugust4,1995,therewere were consecutive.InPhiladelphia,the1995heatwavewasmoreseverethaninWashington, of DC,yetinterms airmassdaysbetweenJuly14andAugust4,butnomorethan3ofthese period, therewere12offensive through August17.UsingWashington, DC,asanexample, in1995,thehottestsummerduring59-yearhistoric longconsecutivedaystringsofMT+andDTairmasses:fromJuly10through22August2 very unusualfortheanalogsummer. airmassesisalsovery The numberofconsecutivedayswithinoffensive Therearetwo contractually agreedtriggerlevel). only“excess”layersofcoveragebeyonda insurersthanonreinsurers(whocommonly offer impact onprimary more Losses fromthesesmall-scaleeventsgrowasrapidly those forcatastrophicevents,withdisproportionately gradual eventsandimpacts,theconsequencesofwhich arealsonotcapturedbystatisticsonextremeevents. classesof ofinfectiousdiseases,andtheerosionairwaterquality areimportant changes inthepatterns weather, etc.Sealevelrise, soilsubsidencethatcausesinsureddamagestostructures,localwind andhailstorms, ning strikes Source: MunichReNatCatService. these losses, lightning strikes are responsible for 85% of the area burned bywildfires(Kovacs2001). these losses,lightningstrikesareresponsible for85%oftheareaburned periods. This iscorroboratedbySchultz(1999).Inadd thatclaimsarefarmorecommon duringwarm Inspection Co.hasobserved Steam Boiler lightning-related lossesexperienced atitsownfacilities,80%wereduetovoltagesurges(Kithil2000).Hartford ofEnergystat fromtheDepartment ofthesecoststhatarerelatedtoelectricity disturbancesisnotknown.Onereport portion payinganaverage5%ofUS $332millioninlightning-relatedclaimsannuallybetween1992and 1996(Kithil2000). Co. reported widely. claims (Kithil1995),butestimatesvary Lightning hasbeencitedasresponsibleforinsurance(presumablyproperty) St British Insurers(2004)fortheUK. This isgenerallyconsistentwiththeglobalprojectionmadebyUNEP-Finance InitiativeandInnovest(2002),bytheAss Even this estimate is conservative, asnotalllossesarecapturedbythismoreinclusiveapproach. Even thisestimateisconservative, o C (100 o F), withthreeoftheseoccurringduringthe10-dayspaninAugust. 4 o F) duringtheanalogsummer. Onaverage,suchanextremeeventoccurslessthanonceayear. (which causefiresaswelldamagestoelectronicinfrastructure),vehicleaccidentsfrominclement 3 These includeweather-relatedeventssuchaslight- The current pattern of increasing property losses ofincreasingproperty The currentpattern 2 Peak-year lossesaresignificantlyhigher. es thatofthe Insurance& . PaulInsurance ociation of ition to The o C Part3.qxd 9/27/06 1:01 PM Page 117

Climate sensitivity for small-scale events can be quite high. For example, for every increase in average temperatures of 1°C we expect a 70% increase in air-to-ground lightning strikes (Reeve and Toumi 1999).

Personal Automobile Insurance: The impact of catastrophes on automobile losses began to become visible during the 1980s and 1990s, but these understate the true extent of the losses because only those losses from catastrophic events were tabulated in association with inclement weather. As the incidence of small storms increases, roadway conditions can erode and there are more days with low visibility, icy conditions, and precipitation, resulting in a steady increase of accidents.

Energy and Water Utility Systems: Increasingly extensive and interconnected energy and other systems enhance the quality of life, but also increase society’s vulnerability to natural hazards (Sullivan 2003). Energy systems are already experiencing rising losses. Under accelerated, non-linear climate change, there are increased damages to energy and water industry infrastructure, including ruptured oil and electricity transmission systems due to widespread permafrost melt throughout the northern latitudes, and risks to power plants. Increased extreme weather events, such as ice storms and heat catastrophes, cause increased numbers of blackouts and water contamination or direct damages to water plants.

The following are several examples of the nature of energy system sensitivities to extreme weather events (Munich Re 2003):

• The US northeast Ice Storm of 1998 was the most expensive disaster in the history of the Canadian insurance industry. • In 1998, on the other side of the world in Auckland, New Zealand, the most severe heat wave since 1868 caused spikes in air-conditioning power demand and the overloading and subsequent collapse of two electricity transmission cable lines. • In 1999, a flash of lightning plunged more than 80 million people in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, and eight other Brazilian states into darkness. Two years later, a prolonged drought — the worst in 70 years — led to a national power crisis, with rationing lasting nearly nine months. APPENDICES | • In 1999, the great windstorms caused EU2.5 billion in damages to France’s largest electricity supplier.

• In 1982, a shortage of rain forced deep load shedding in Ghana. Impacts included business interruptions of 117 US $557 million at an aluminum smelter. • In 1993, the Des Moines Water Works was shut down due to flooding. Direct property damages and emergency measures were US $16 million, but the indirect business interruption losses resulted in 250,000 commercial and residential customers being without water for 11 days.

A particularly diverse set of risks apply in the electricity sector (Mills 2001). The current US baseline cost of electri- cal outages of US $80 billion per year (LaCommare and Eto 2004) could double under our scenarios. In our scenarios, businesses seek increasing business-interruption coverage for such events, and a larger share of conse- quent losses is paid by insurers. In addition, increasingly frequent drought conditions result in power curtailments that cause further business interruptions in regions heavily dependent on hydroelectric power. Drought plus unac- ceptably higher cooling water temperatures in summer 2003 forced curtailments or closures of nuclear and other thermal plants in France, Germany, Romania and Croatia and price spikes in addition (Reuters 2003, Guardian 2003). Massive oil-sector losses such as those caused by Hurricane Ivan (approximately US $2.5 billion, well in excess of the year’s entire premium revenue for the sector)5 (Miller 2004), would become more common. Premiums for vulnerable oil infrastructure were projected to double after this event, and consumers faced higher prices due to the 500,000 barrel per day supply shortfall (The Energy Daily 2004a). Emblematic of the industry’s history of underestimating its exposures, a representative of Hiscox Syndicates in London stated that “the market has had a much worse loss than ever anticipated.” Electric utilities were also hard hit, with one utility’s costs reaching US $252 million (The Energy Daily 2004b).

5 Hurricane Ivan destroyed seven oil platforms, damaged six others as well as five drilling platforms, and pipelines were buried by underwater mudslides in the Mississippi Delta. In Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 109 off-shore oil rigs were destroyed and 31 severly damaged. Part3.qxd 9/27/06 1:01 PM Page 118

Crop and Timber Insurance: Crop insurance and reinsurance is provided by a mix of public and private mechanisms. The US government program covers 350 commodities through 22 specific insurance programs and assumes about US $40 billion in insured values. The public crop insurance system already tends to pay out more in losses than it collects in premiums, and rising losses would more deeply erode the system’s viability, especially in a political environment in which increased taxes (which ultimately finance the system) are not politically desir- able. As an example for a single crop in a single country, Rosenzweig et al. (2002) estimate a doubling of current corn losses to US $3 billion/year under intermediate (30-year) climate change.

The current structural expansion of the program to include more and more perishable products as well as livestock increases the vulnerability of the sector to extreme weather events.

In our business scenarios, losses continue to rise, prices of government-provided insurance are increased, deductibles increased, and payout limits are reduced in most areas, and completely eliminated in others (for example, for drought-prone crops). One consequence for the insurance sector is that administrative fees it currently receives for delivering the government insurance are lost. Furthermore, the resulting contraction in the agricultural sector reduces the number and size of firms seeking other insurance products (for example, property and workers’ compensation). A more minor line of coverage, losses for “standing timber insurance,” increases due to the combination of wildfire and insect-related damages.

More than 5 billion board feet of timber had been lost to spruce beetles as of 1999.6 In an assessment of the risks in California, wildfire-related losses are predicted to double on average (and increase up to fourfold in some areas). Superinfestations continue to be a problem leading to multiple losses, ranging from timber to property to the health consequences of increased airborne particulates from wildfires.

LIABILITY INSURANCE DYNAMICS APPENDICES

| Corporate Liability: Liability risks can manifest under climate change as a result of responses of various parties to the perceived threat (Allen and Lord 2004). For example, Attorneys General from NY, CA, CT, ME, NJ, RI, and 118 VT are suing utilities to force 3% annual reduction of GHG emissions over 10 years. State Treasurers from CA, CT, ME, NM, NY, OR and VT called for disclosure of financial risks of global warming in securities filings (Skinner 2004). Environmental groups and cities have brought suits against US federal agencies for supporting fossil fuel export projects without assessing their impacts on global climate (ABI 2004). In our scenarios, this trend accelerates in the early part of the 21st century.

Environmental Liability: Extreme weather events can lead to a rise in local pollution episodes, triggering environmental liability insurance claims. Following the Mississippi River floods of 1993 there was extensive polluted water runoff from pig farms, affecting drinking water supplies. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita led to massive contamination with petrochemicals, pesticides, heavy metals and microorganisms.

LIFE-HEALTH INSURANCE DYNAMICS

Remarkably, the insured costs associated with health and loss of life from natural disasters are not known or tracked by the industry. Charts such as figure 1.5 exclude such information. This is largely because the losses are

6 According to Holsten et al. (1999): “The spruce beetle, Dendroctonus rufipennis, Kirby, is the most significant natural mortality agent of mature spruce. Outbreaks of this beetle have caused extensive spruce mortality from Alaska to Arizona and have occurred in every forest with substantial spruce stands. Spruce beetle damage results in the loss of 333 to 500 million board feet of spruce saw timber annually. More than 2.3 million acres of spruce forests have been infested in Alaska in seven years [1992-1999] an estimated 30 million trees were killed per year at the peak of the outbreak. In the 1990s, spruce beetle outbreaks in Utah infested more than 122,000 acres and killed more than 3,000,000 spruce trees. In the past 25 years, outbreaks have resulted in estimated losses of more than 25 million board feet in Montana, 31 million in Idaho, over 100 million in Arizona, 2 billion in Alaska, and 3 billion in British Columbia.” Part3.qxd 9/27/061:01PMPage119 of fossilfuels.OnedriverisanelevatedrateaeroallergensfrommoreCO healthimpactsofclimatechangeandthecombustion diseaseemergesasoneofthemostpervasive Respiratory $120 billionperyearglobally. Given thattheUShasaboutone-thirdofworldmarketinlifeinsurance,thiswouldimply$90billionto group lifepayoutsintheUSaloneofapproximately$30billionto$40 of reference,INGRe’s GroupLifeestimatesthatapandemiclikeof1918-1919 inEuropesummer2003.Tounknown forinsurerspriorto9/11andthemassiveheatmortality provideaframe lines.Lifeinsurance“catastrophes”were lacks goodgraspofitsexposureasitdoesintheproperty/casualty isworrisome,astheindustry anddonotmanifestinsingle“catastrophe”events.Thelackofinformation diffuse from thesemarkets,orraisepricestolevelsatwhichtheirproductsbecomesunaffordable. ofthe21stcentury,during theearlypart butisslowedasinsurersrecognize theincreasinglossesandwithdraw and ineconomiestransition(theemergingmarkets).Healthlifeinsurancegrowsrapidlytheseregions Under ourscenarios,eachoftheabove-mentioneddevelopmentsisamplifiedconsiderablyindevelopingnations andfloods. storms rates ofphysicaldamageanddrowningsunderourscenariosarisingfromnaturalcatastrophessuchaswind- ofillsrelated to erodedwaterquality.way accidentscanincreaseasdoanassortment Therearealsoincreased phenomenon—canincrease withmoreheatspells.Weather-relateddue tospoilage—nowasummertime road- Foodpoisoning theimpactsinshort-term. maybuffer andpublichealthinterventions socioeconomic buffers In ourscenarios,anarrayofotherhealthproblemsbecomemoreprevalentinindustrializedcountries,although biological impoverishment. oped regionsoftheworld,addingsubstantiallytoacceleratingspreaddisease,andlossspecies tem healthandintegrity, theroleofinfectiousdiseasesisprojectedtoincreaseinindustrializedandunderdevel- andecosys- ofhumanmorbidityandmortality awidetaxonomicrange.Interms Infectious diseasesareafflicting sources ofenergy. already stretchedenergydemands,generatingadditionalgreenhousegases,withoutmajorchangesinthe wildlifeandlivestock,forestssoils,willputaddedstresseson affect and, alongwithwatershortages, Heat catastrophesareprojectedtobecomeagrowingissuethroughouttheworld.Thiswillincreasemortality andairpollutionpatterns. terns, associatedwithdroughtsandchangingwindpat- increased frequencyofwildfires,majorandminorduststorms healthandthesearisefroman ticulate matterequaltoorlessthan2.5micrometers)alsoimpactrespiratory PM2.5,thefinepar- (particularly particulates Exacerbating theproblem,avarietyofsourcesincreasedairborne inmold-relatedclaimsduetoincreasedmoisturelevelsandaroundbuildings. accompanied byanupturn already amajorandgrowingchallengeforinsurersinthelate20thcentury, becomesmorewidespread.Thisis regardless oftheenergytrajectory, giventhe100-yearlifetimeofthesemoleculesinatmosphere.Asthma, 2 — that is predetermined torise thatispredetermined — per year(Rasmussen2005). would resultinadoublingof

119 | APPENDICES Part3.qxd 9/27/061:01PMPage120

120 | APPENDICES Source: Mills et al. 2001 al. et Mills Source: Table C.Standardsof“Insurability”withRegardtoGlobalClimateChange (Atkinson 2004). economies, e.g.,China,stillhaveinsufficientlyformedlegalsystems market underscoresthisissue(McLeod2003).Manytransitional payments. Recentlarge-scalefraudintheweatherderivatives confident thatclaimswillbepaid,andinsurersmustreceivepremium successful functioningofinsurancemarkets.Insuredsmustbe Enforceability: Trustandcontractualcommitmentsunderpinthe Re 2002a). has beenerodingforotherreasons,particularlyintheUS.(Swiss insurers inemergingmarketsareevenmorevulnerable.Solvency among insurersinindustrializedcountries(Millsetal.2001),and events. Naturaldisastershavecausedinsolvencies(bankruptcies) insurance providersmustremainsolventfollowingsevereloss Solvency: Africa inresponsetotheAIDSepidemic(Chordas2004). evidenced bythe~50%increaseinlifeinsurancepremiums challenge isinsuringpoorhouseholdsandruralbusinesses.This uncertain, anupwardpressureisplacedonprices.Thegreatest losses orotherweather-relatedaretoogreatand/or that thepremiumsrequiredwillattractbuyers.Ifnaturaldisaster Affordability: “Affordability”implies thatamarketwillbemade,i.e., ways tophysicallymanagerisk. localities, etc.canbeexpandediftherearetechnicalorprocedural Managable Risks: The poolofpotentiallyinsurableproperties, the risk.Moreover,insuredmustnotintentionallycauselosses. standard methodofensuringthattheinsured“retains”aportion is providedbyapublicorprivateentity.Theuseofdeductiblesthe will, inturn,increaselosses.Thisisanissuewhethertheinsurance adaptation” topotentialchangesinweather-relatedevents,which foster increasedrisk-taking,whichcanbethoughtofas“mal- Controllable MoralHazard:Theverypresenceofinsurancecan public debateontheinsurabilityofterrorismrisks. risks precedingthe9/11disaster(Prince2002)andensuing example isthelackofattentiontogeographicalconcentration upward pressureonpricingandaffordability/availability.Akey constituencies createselevatedriskforinsurers,therebyputting this informationoruseofinsuranceonlybythehighest-risk the basisfordifferentiatingpremiumsorcoverageoffered.Lackof and vulnerabilitiesofthevariouscustomersubgroups.Thiscanform individuals intheirmarketandbeabletodifferentiatetheexposures Adverse Selection:Insurersneedtounderstandtheriskprofileof not facesimultaneouslosses. must alsobeuncorrelatedsothatlargenumbersofpoolmembersdo larger thepool,greaterreductionoflossvolatility.Suchrisks business” ininsuranceparlance),geographicalspread,etc.The reflected inthenumberofinsurancecontracts(or“book diversify therisk.Thedegreeofdiversificationforoneinsureris Mutuality: Theinsuredcommunitymustsufficientlyshareand purchase insurance,andinsurancesystemswouldnotfunction. predicted, onlythosewhoweregoingtomakeclaimswould vanish. Intentionallossesarenotinsurable.Ifcanbe reduced andthewillingnessofinsurerstoassumeriskwould disasters wereknownprecisely,theneedforinsurancewouldbe Randomness: Ifthetiming,magnitude,orlocationofnatural exposure informationbecomemoreavailable(Bradford2002) expressed interestinexpandingintotheseregionsiflossand and reinsurerscurrentlyavoidAsiaSouthAmericabuthave experience (ratherthanprojections).Forexample,someinsurers regulators requirethatpremiumsbebasedstrictlyonhistoric measure theloss.Thisisessentialforpricing,especiallywhere estimated magnitudeoffutureclaimsandbeabletounambiguously Assessable Risk: Insurersmustunderstandthelikelihoodand Foraninsurancemarkettobesustainable(andcredible), . loss • Useoffixeddeductibles(insuredpaysaamountany insurance program). • Relyongovernmentinsuranceorco-insurance(e.g.,U.S.flood insureds. • Differentiatepremiumsamongdifferent(risk)classesof all losses • Useofproportionaldeductibles(insuredpaysapercentage demo • Gathermarketdataonvulnerabilitiesandassociated • Createsufficientlylargeanddiversifiedpoolsofinsureds. • Accountabilityandlegalremediesforinsurancefraud. • Statisticalandmonitoringsystems. modeling fordevelopingcountriesandeconomiesintransition. • Improveddata(e.g.,floodzonemapping)andclimate/impact catastro for smallcoverages.Systemsmustmaintainsolvencyfollowing • Micro-insuranceorotherschemestofacilitatesmallinsurance • Disasterpreparedness/recoverysystems. • Earlywarningsystems. • Buildingcodesandenforcement. • Educationandrequiredriskreduction. • Useofcapsonclaimspaid. processing. • Regulatoryoversightofinsuranceoperations,pricing,claims • Customeradvocates. • Contractlaw. • Insurerratingsystems. • Riskpooling;Governmentinsurance. and conservatisminhowthe • Solvencyregulation(e.g.,toensuresufficientcapitalreserves reinsurance. • Governmentsubsidyofinsurancecosts;provisionbackstop ) . g ra p p ) hic events. . hic and g eo g ra p hic distributionofrisks. y areinvested ) . Part3.qxd 9/27/06 1:01 PM Page 121

APPENDIX D. LIST OF PARTICIPANTS ATTENDING THE EXECUTIVE ROUNDTABLE SWISS RE CENTRE FOR GLOBAL DIALOGUE RÜSCHLIKON, SWITZERLAND JUNE 2-4, 2004

Frank Ackerman Douglas Causey Tufts University University of Alaska Anchorage, AK Juan Almendares Professor Manuel Cesario Medical School Southwestern Amazon Observatory on Collective Health and The National University of Honduras the Environment, Federal University of Acre, Brazil

Michael Anthony Paul Clements-Hunt Spokesperson Head of Unit Allianz Group UNEP Finance Initiative

Adrienne Atwell Annie Coleman Senior Product Line Manager Director of Marketing Swiss Re Goldman Sachs

Guillermo Baigorria James Congram Meteorologist, Natural Resource Management Division Marketing Manager Rüschlikon International Potato Center (CIP) Swiss Re

Daniella Ballou-Aares John R. Coomber Dalberg Global Development Advisors Former CEO Swiss Re

Antonella Bernasconi APPENDICES

Documentalist Amy Davidsen | Banca Intesa S.p.A. Director of Environmental Affairs

JPMorgan Chase & Co. 121 Aaron Bernstein Research Associate Jean-Philippe de Schrevel Harvard Medical School Partner BlueOrchard Finance SA Jutta Bopp Senior Economist Stephen K. Dishart Swiss Re Head of Corporate Communications Americas Richard Boyd Swiss Re Department for International Development UK Peter Duerig Marketing Manager Rüschlikon Peter Bridgewater Swiss Re Secretary General Convention on Wetlands Balz Duerst Bundeskanzlei Urs Brodmann Strategirche Fuhrungsaus Partner Factor Consulting + Management Jonathan H. Epstein Senior Research Scientist Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum The Consortium for Conservation Medicine World Health Organization Kristie L. Ebi Laurent F. Carrel Senior Managing Scientist Head Strategic Leadership Training Exponent Swiss Government Part3.qxd 9/27/06 1:01 PM Page 122

Paul R. Epstein Elisabet Lindgren Associate Director Department of Systems Ecology Center for Health and the Global Environment Stockholm University Harvard Medical School Mindy Lubber Megan Falvey President Chief Technical Advisor Ceres FNV Gov United Nations Development Programme Sue Mainka Director, Species Programme Find Findsen IUCN The World Consertation Union UNDP/Dalberg Global Development Advisors Jeffrey A. McNeely Kathleen Frith Chief Scientist Director of Communications IUCN The World Conservation Union Center for Health and the Global Environment Harvard Medical School Charles McNeill Environment Programme Team Manager Stephan Gaschen United Nation Development Programme Head Accumutation Insurance Risk Assessment Winterthur Insurance Evan Mills Staff Scientist Pascal Girot Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Environmental Risk Advisor UNDP-BDP Irving Mintzer Global Business Network Jorge Gomez Consultant Norman Myers Professor Raymond L. Hayes University of Oxford Professor Emeritus Howard University Jennifer Orme-Zavaleta APPENDICES Associate Director for Science | Pamela Heck USEPA Cat Perils 122 Swiss Re Konrad Otto-Zimmermann Secretary General Daniel Hillel International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives Senior Research Scientist Local Governments for Sustainability Columbia University Nikkita Patel Ilyse Hogue Program Officer Global Finance Campaign Director Consortium for Conservation Medicine Rainforest Action Network Mathew Petersen Steve Howard President & CEO CEO Global Green USA The Climate Group Hugh Pitcher Chris Hunter Staff Scientist Johnson & Johnson Joint Global Change Research Institute

Sonila Jacob Olga Pilifosova UNDP/Dalberg Global Development Advisors Programme Officer UN Framework Convention on Climate Change William Karesh Director, Field Veterinary Program Roberto Quiroz Wildlife Conservation Society Natural Resource Management Division International Potato Center (CIP) Thomas Krafft German National Committee on Kilaparti Ramakrishna Global Change Research Deputy Director Woods Hole Research Center Part3.qxd 9/27/06 1:01 PM Page 123

Carmenza Robledo Michael Totten Gruppe Oekologie Senior Director EMPA Conservation International Center for Environmental Leadership in Business Cynthia Rosenzweig Senior Research Scientist Ursula Ulrich-Vögtlin NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies Cheffe de la Division Politique de Santé Multisectorielle

Philippe Rossignol Henk van Schaik Professor Managing Director Oregon State University Dialogue on Water and Climate

Chris Roythorne Jan von Overbeck Vice President Health (Retired) Head of Medical Services BP Plc. Swiss Re

Earl Saxon Mathis Wackernagel Climate Change Scientist Global Footprint Network The Nature Conservancy Christopher Thomas Walker Markus Schneemann Managing Director Medical Officer Swiss Re Swiss Re Richard Walsh Kurt Schneiter Head of Health Member of the Board Association of British Insurers Federal Office of Private Insurance Robert J. Weireter Roland Schulze Associate Product Line Manager – Environmental Liability Professor Swiss Re America Corp. University of Kwazulu-Natal South Africa Martin Whittaker Formaly Innovest Ceres APPENDICES | Joel Schwartz Swiss Re Professor of Environmental Health Harvard School of Public Health Mary Wilson 123 Harvard Medical School Jeffrey Shaman College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ginny Worrest Oregon State University Senior Policy Advisor for Energy, Environment & Natural Resources Richard L. Shanks Office of US Senator Olympia J. Snowe Managing Director AON Robert Worrest Senior Research Scientist Rowena Smith Center for International Earth Science Information Network Consultant Columbia University

Nicole St. Clair X.B. Yang Formerly Ceres Professor of Plant Pathology Iowa State University Thomas Stocker Universität Bern Durwood Zaelke Office of the International Network for Environmental Michael Stopford Compliance and Enforcement Secretariat Head of Global Public Affairs and Government Syngenta International AG Aurelia Zanetti Economic Research and Consulting Rick Thomas Swiss Re Head of Research Partner Reinsurance Co. BIBLIO2006new 9/27/06 1:44 PM Page 124 BIBLIO2006new 9/27/06 1:44 PM Page 125

BIBLIOGRAPHY BIBLIO2006new 9/27/06 1:44 PM Page 126

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