Climate Change Futures Health, Ecological and Economic Dimensions A Project of: The Center for Health and the Global Environment Harvard Medical School Sponsored by: Swiss Re United Nations Development Programme IntroNew.qxd 9/27/06 12:40 PM Page 1 CLIMATE CHANGE FUTURES Health, Ecological and Economic Dimensions A Project of: The Center for Health and the Global Environment Harvard Medical School Sponsored by: Swiss Re United Nations Development Programme IntroNew.qxd 9/27/06 12:40 PM Page 2 Published by: The Center for Health and the Global Environment Harvard Medical School With support from: Swiss Re United Nations Development Programme Edited by: Paul R. Epstein and Evan Mills Contributing editors: Kathleen Frith, Eugene Linden, Brian Thomas and Robert Weireter Graphics: Emily Huhn and Rebecca Lincoln Art Directors/Design: Evelyn Pandozi and Juan Pertuz Contributing authors: Pamela Anderson, John Brownstein, Ulisses Confalonieri, Douglas Causey, Nathan Chan, Kristie L. Ebi, Jonathan H. Epstein, J. Scott Greene, Ray Hayes, Eileen Hofmann, Laurence S. Kalkstein, Tord Kjellstrom, Rebecca Lincoln, Anthony J. McMichael, Charles McNeill, David Mills, Avaleigh Milne, Alan D. Perrin, Geetha Ranmuthugala, Christine Rogers, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Colin L. Soskolne, Gary Tabor, Marta Vicarelli, X.B. Yang Reviewers: Frank Ackerman, Adrienne Atwell, Tim Barnett, Virginia Burkett, Colin Butler, Eric Chivian, Richard Clapp, Stephen K. Dishart, Tee L. Guidotti, Elisabet Lindgren, James J. McCarthy, Ivo Menzinger, Richard Murray, David Pimentel, Jan von Overbeck, R.K. Pachauri, Claire L. Parkinson, Kilaparti Ramakrishna, Walter V. Reid, David Rind, Earl Saxon, Ellen-Mosley Thompson, Robert Unsworth, Christopher Walker Additional contributors to the CCF project: Juan Almendares, Peter Bridgewater, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, Manuel Cesario, Michael B. Clark, Annie Coleman, James Congram, Paul Clements-Hunt, Peter Daszak, Amy Davidsen, Henry Diaz, Peter Duerig, David Easterling, Find Findsen, David Foster, Geoffrey Heal, Chris Hunter, Pascal Girot, H.N.B. Gopalan, Nicholas Graham, James Hansen, Pamela Heck, Daniel Hillel, Steve Howard, Ilyse Hogue, Anna Iglesias, Sonila Jacob, Maaike Jansen, Kurt Karl, William Karesh, Sivan Kartha, Thomas Kelly, Thomas Krafft, Gerry Lemcke, Mindy Lubber, Jeffrey A. McNeely, Sue Mainka, Leslie Malone, Pim Martens, Rachel Massey, Bettina Menne, Irving Mintzer, Teofilo Monteiro, Norman Myers, Peter Neoftis, Frank Nutter, Buruhani Nyenzi, Jennifer Orme-Zavaleta, Konrad Otto-Zimmermann, Martin Parry, Nikkita Patel, Jonathan Patz, Olga Pilifosova, Hugh Pitcher, Roberto Quiroz, Paul Raskin, William Rees, Phil Rossingol, Chris Roythorne, Jeffrey Sachs, Osman Sankoh, Henk van Schaik, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Roland Schulze, Joel Schwartz, Jeffrey Shaman, Richard Shanks, Gelila Terrefe, Rick Thomas, Margaret Thomsen, Ricardo Thompson, Michael Totten, Mathis Wackernagel, David Waltner-Toews, Cameron Wake, Richard Walsh, Martin Whittaker, Mary Wilson, George M. Woodwell, Ginny Worrest, Robert Worrest, Durwood Zaelke Swiss Re Centre for Global Dialogue: The Centre for Global Dialogue is Swiss Re’s forum to deal with global risk issues and facilitates new insight into future risk markets. It supports stake- holder and networking activities for Swiss Re and their clients. Climate Change Futures was supported and realized with the help of the Business Development unit of Swiss Re’s Centre for Global Dialogue. The full list of the Centre for Global Dialogue Executive Roundtable participants is appended. Additional financial support for the Climate Change Futures project was provided by: The John Merck Fund Disclaimer: This report was produced by the Center for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard Medical School and does not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsors. November 2005 Second Printing: September 2006 IntroNew.qxd 9/27/06 12:40 PM Page 3 Table of Contents Introduction 4 Preamble 5 Executive Summary Part I. 16 The Problem: Climate is Changing, Fast The Climate Context Today 21 Trend Analyses: Extreme Weather Events and Costs 26 Climate Change Can Occur Abruptly 27 The Climate Change Futures Scenarios Part II. Case Studies 32 Infectious and Respiratory Diseases 32 Malaria 41 West Nile Virus 45 Lyme Disease 48 Carbon Dioxide and Aeroallergens 53 Extreme Weather Events 53 Heat Waves 53 Case 1. European Heat Wave and Analogs for US Cities 58 Case 2. Analog for New South Wales, Australia 60 Floods 65 Natural and Managed Systems 65 Forests 70 Agriculture 77 Marine Ecosystems 77 Case 1. The Tropical Coral Reef 83 Case 2. Marine Shellfish 86 Water Part III. Financial Implications, 92 Financial Implications Scenarios and Solutions 95 Risk Spreading in Developed and Developing Nations 97 The Limits of Insurability 97 Business Scenarios 102 Constructive Roles for Insurers and Reinsurers 103 Optimizing Strategies for Adaptation and Mitigation 105 Summary of Financial Sector Measures 107 Conclusions and Recommendations Policies and Measures Appendices 112 Appendix A. Summary Table/Extreme Weather Events and Impacts 114 Appendix B. Additional Findings and Methods for The US Analog Studies of Heat Waves 116 Appendix C. Finance: Property Insurance Dynamics 121 Appendix D. List of Participants, Swiss Re Centre for Global Dialogue 126 Bibliography IntroNew.qxd 9/27/06 12:40 PM Page 4 PREAMBLE Hurricane Katrina What was once a worst-case scenario for the US Gulf Coast occurred in August 2005. Hurricane Katrina killed hundreds and sickened thousands, created one million displaced persons, and sent ripples throughout the global economy, exposing the vulnerabilities of all nations to climate extremes. While no one event is conclusive evidence of climate change, the relentless pace of severe weather — prolonged droughts, intense heat waves, violent windstorms, more wildfires and more frequent “100- year” floods — is indicative of a changing climate. Although the associations among greater weather volatility, natural cycles and climate change are debated, the rise in mega-catastrophes and prolonged widespread heat waves is, at the very least, a harbinger of what we can expect in a changing and Warm ocean waters fuel hurricanes. This image depicts the three-day unstable climate. average of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from August 25-27, 2005, and the growing breadth of Hurricane Katrina as it passed over the For the insurance sector, climate change threatens the warm Gulf of Mexico. Yellow, orange and red areas are at or above 820F (27.7°C), the temperature needed for hurricanes to strengthen. By Life & Health and Property & Casualty businesses, as late August SSTs in the Gulf were well over 900F (32.2°C). well as the health of insurers’ investments. Managing Source: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center/Scientific and transferring risks are the first responses of the Visualization Studio insurance industry — and rising insurance premiums and exclusions are already making front-page news. Nonetheless, if we drastically reduce greenhouse gas Many corporations are changing practices and some emissions, our climate may reach a new and are seizing business opportunities for products aimed PREAMBLE potentially acceptable equilibrium, affording a | at reducing risks. Corporations and institutional modicum of predictability. Doing so, however, requires 4 investors have begun to consider public policies a more sustainable energy mix that takes into account needed to encourage investments in clean energy on health and environmental concerns, as well as a scale commensurate with the heightened climate and economic feasibility to power our common future. At energy crises. this time, energy prices and supplies, political conflicts and climate instability are converging to stimulate the The scientific findings underlying the unexpected pace development of a new energy plan. and magnitude of climate change demonstrate that greenhouse gases have contributed significantly to the Expanded use of new energy-generation and oceans’ warming at a rate 22 times more than the efficiency-enhancing technologies, involving green atmosphere since 1950. Enhanced evaporation from buildings, solar, wind, tidal, geothermal, hybrids and warmer seas fuels heavier downpours and sequences combined cycle energy systems, can become the of storms. engine of growth for this century. The financial sector, having first sensed the integrated economic impacts of Polar ice is melting at rates unforeseen in the 1990s. global climate change, has a special role to play: to As meltwater seeps down to lubricate their base, some help develop incentivizing rewards, rules and Greenland outlet glaciers are moving 14 kilometers regulations. per year, twice as fast as in 2001, making linear projections for sea level rise this century no longer This report examines a wide spectrum of physical and applicable. North Atlantic freshening — from melting biological risks we face from an unstable climate. It ice and Arctic rainfall — is shifting the circulation also aims to further the development of healthy, safe pattern that has helped stabilize climates for millennia. and economically feasible energy solutions that can Indeed, the slowing of the Ocean Conveyor Belt and help stabilize the global climate system. These the degree of storm destructiveness are occurring at solutions should also enhance public health, improve rates and intensities that past models had projected energy security and stimulate economic growth. would occur much later on in this century. – Paul Epstein and Evan