Electoral Behavior in the 2005 Albanian Parliamentary Election

Prepared by

Altin Ilirjani

Albanian Political Science Association (ALPSA) Rr. Bogdani, Pall. 7, Apt. 4B, P.O. Box 8199, Tirana, Albania www.alpsa.org [email protected] The 2005 Albanian Election Study Page 2 of 38

THE 2005 ALBANIAN ELECTION STUDY

The 2005 Albanian Election Study (AES) was organized in collaboration with the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) of the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, USA. CSES is a cross-national collaborative program among election studies in over fifty countries supported by the National Science Foundation of the United States. ALPSA is an Albanian professional organization. The AES survey fieldwork took place immediately after the last Albanian parliamentary election from July 4 - 20, 2005. The 2005 AES work was funded by the Open Society Foundation for Albania –Soros Foundation, and the Netherlands Embassy in Tirana.

The 2005 Albanian Election Study focused on three general themes: the impact of political institutions on citizens' political cognition and behavior (functioning of the parliament, the government, and the presidency; the electoral rules; and political parties); the nature of political, cultural, ethnic and social cleavages; ideological alignments in Albania; and the evaluation of democratic institutions and processes.

The post-election survey was administered through interviews with a representative sample of 1,500 households. Each household interview lasted for about 45 minutes, on average. The final dataset of the study contains 1148 observations. We used a stratified sample selection model whereby the country was divided into two parts: i) the six main districts counting for 48 percent of the total population of Albania, and ii) the rest of the country. In the six main districts, we interviewed seven to ten households in each Primary Sample Unit (PSU) selected for every 9,200 households sorted geographically from North to South (7 or 10 interviews x 83 PSUs for every 9,200 households). In the rest of the country, we interviewed seven to ten households in each PSU (90) selected for every 7,520 households. A list of all PSUs and the AES questionnaire in Albanian and English languages can be downloaded from the AES website (see below). At a confidence level of 95 percent, our survey results have a statistical precision of ± 2.2 percent of what they would be if we had interviewed the entire voting age population currently residing in Albania.

The 2005 AES questionnaire has over 200 questions. Here, we report only part of the data such as the main campaign issues, voters’ evaluation of political leaders, voters’ expectations from the new government, as well as a few socio-demographic variables like religious denominations and ethnic self-identification, issues that may be of interest to a broader non- academic audience. The 2005 AES survey aims to explain the official election results rather than confirm them. For this reason, we do not report survey data on vote choice.

The 2005 Albanian Election Study Page 3 of 38

The survey data suggest that the Albanian voters share sophisticated and strong perceptions about the political situation and the state of democracy in the country. Thus, while 96 percent of the voters believe in democracy and 63 percent express high levels of internal political efficacy, i.e., the belief that it is important to exercise one’s political rights such as the right to vote, over 60 percent of them are either unsatisfied or not satisfied at all with the way democracy functions in Albania. At the same time, about 94 percent believe that individual and human rights are respected only to some degree - with 40 percent saying that there is little or no respect at all for individual and human rights in Albania.

Study results suggest that the two main political parties, the Democratic Party in power and the Socialist Party, now in opposition, have strong and loyal electoral bases [Chart C28]. The survey results hint that it was the voters’ attitude toward the party leaders that may have played a pivotal role in their vote choice decision. Thus, 56 percent of the respondents characterized the former Socialist Party leader, Fatos Nano, as not honest; 62 percent believed that he did not really care about people like them; and 53 percent reported that they feel angry toward him. This compares to a rather favorable view toward the Democratic Party leader, Sali Berisha. At least 57 percent characterized Berisha as honest, and most of the people reported that Berisha made them feel hopeful and that they believed he really cares about people like them. In addition, voters appear to be weary of political instability and weak governance in the country. Asked about the main problem that Albania has faced in the last four years, voters ranked political instability (most commonly expressed as “bickering among politicians”) and weak governance at the same level with water and electricity shortages, the latter being daily problems in Albania.

Voters appear to have strong and unfavorable views for Leka Zogu, the heir to the Albanian throne, and his political movement, LZhK. Of those who do share a favorable view about him and LZhK, about 60 percent listed the Democratic Party as their second choice, and 40 percent listed the Socialist Party or the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI) as their second choice. These figures are within the margin of statistical error.

Voters’ evaluation of the LSI leader, Ilir Meta, is all over the place. Survey results imply that the electorate was not entirely convinced about the honesty and sincerity of his motivations. Additionally, they do not appear to perceive him as a very strong and capable leader, qualities that were at the center of the LSI electoral strategy. Voters’ evaluation of political leaders is presented in pages 21 through 27.

At the end, this appears to have been an electoral campaign shaped by the negative perceptions about the Socialist Party leadership and the populist campaign promises of the Democratic Party. About 40 percent of the respondents stated that the number one problem they would like the new government to deal with is unemployment and poverty reduction, followed by the fight against corruption. At the same time, they listed corruption as the number one problem that Albania has faced in the last four years [Chart C11] (in another question 78 percent reported that they believe corruption is very widespread among politicians, Chart C48). By blaming corruption as the universal diagnosis of all the ills of the Albanian economy and society, the Democratic Party has successfully copied a page from the “clean-hands” populist electoral campaigns that we have seen in other countries before. It The 2005 Albanian Election Study Page 4 of 38 seems that once corruption and poverty were established as the defining issues of the electoral campaign, the public perception of Sali Berisha was also cast in that context i.e. as a honest leader who cares about the poor rather than as a former authoritarian president. The Socialist Party’s electoral strategy of invoking the events of 1997 may have been too late and out of the sync with the voters.

Asked about who they most wanted to be the next Prime Minister, 26 percent of the respondents mentioned Sali Berisha as their choice; Edi Rama was the second choice with 21 percent. In addition, Sali Berisha had the support of 55 percent of the democratic (or blue) voters. Edi Rama was the PM choice of 32 percent of the respondents who identified with the Socialist Party, its allies or LSI. It is interesting that Edi Rama was the PM choice of about 6 percent of the blue voters and 18 percent of the LSI voters in our survey. These results are reported in Charts C31 through C31/PID (pp. 13-16).

We also report age, educational levels, religious denominations and ethnic self-identification of the respondents. As concerns age and political party identification, about 70 percent of the Democratic Party (DP) supporters are in the age group 18 – 49 years old. About 68 percent of the Socialist Party (SP) supports are in the 40 years old and above. DP had the support of 61 percent of the respondents in the 30-39 years old category, and of 54 percent of the respondents in the 18-29 years old category. One explanation could be that the 30-39 years old category is the generation of the anti-communist “revolution”, those who were in their twenties in the early 1990s and have stayed loyal to DP. The 18-29 year olds have become adults in the post-communist period when the SP was in power for the last eight years. They seem to have more of a “protest against Socialist Party” kind of affiliation with the DP as shown by the fact that LSI and Edi Rama also draw sizeable support from this age group. LSI draws most of its supporters from the 18-29 and 40-49 age categories. As concerns educational levels and party identification, we notice that the Socialist Party and LSI, combined, have an advantage over Democratic Party among respondents with a university degree or higher. In addition, we notice that LSI has attracted the younger and the more educated supporters of the Socialist Party.

Perhaps, one should be cautious about how much to read into our estimations of religious denomination and ethnicity as our sample captures only the voting age population that currently resides in Albania. Our data say nothing about Albanian emigrants in other countries (by some estimates up to 30 percent of the population). We need further surveys to study political and socio-demographic characteristics of the Albanian emigrants. 70 percent of the respondents in our survey stated Islam as their religion but only 7.5 percent knew if they were Sunni or Bektashi Muslims. In addition, over 46 percent stated that they never practice their religion, and 14 percent go to church or mosque very rarely. This could mean that religious denominations are, for the most part, only nominal labels. About 15 percent of the respondents said they were Orthodox, and 13 percent Catholics. On ethnicity, 96 percent identified themselves as Albanians. Among them, only 16 percent identified themselves as either Ghegs or Tosks. Ghegs were twice as likely to self-identify as compared to Tosks, this probably being a consequence of the decades long alienation of Ghegs by the former communist regime.

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AES is primarily an academic study and its main product is the dataset that will be deposited with the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor in the coming months. The 2005 AES has produced the first comprehensive dataset on electoral behavior in Albania. The AES data can also serve as a baseline to compare changes in the public opinion toward the new Democratic Party government.

We are also planning the 2009 Albanian Election Study in the framework the CSES Module 3. The focus of the 2009 AES will shift to the study of political parties and the Albanian party system. The 2009 AES will investigate the extent to which political parties in Albania offer meaningful choices to voters through candidate party recruitment and public policy alternatives.

Public opinion is at the heart of every democratic system. It is widely recognized that in democratic societies there are strong links between public opinion and the actions of policymakers. I hope that this report will help the reader understand the decision and preferences of the Albanian voters as manifested in the July 3rd, 2005 parliamentary elections.

Prepared by

Altin Ilirjani Department of Political Science University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA, & Albanian Political Science Association, Tirana, Albania

The following websites contain additional information about the 2005 Albanian Election Study:

-The 2005 Albanian Election Study, website (http://www.alpsa.org/aes/) -Albanian Political Science Association (ALPSA), website (http://www.alpsa.org/) -Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), website (http://www.cses.org/)

The 2005 Albanian Election Study was supported by:

-The Open Society Foundation for Albania – Soros Foundation website (http://www.soros.al) -The Netherlands Embassy in Tirana website (http://www.netherlandsembassytirana.com/)

C21. Please, tell me how strongly you agree or disagree with the following statement: "Democracy may have problems but it's better than any other form of government." Do you agree strongly, agree, disagree, or disagree strongly with this statement?

60 52.9 50 43.5

30 Percent

2.5 1 0 Agree Agree Disagree Disagree strongly strongly

Percent Cumulative Percent Agree strongly 43.5 43.5 Agree 52.9 96.4 Disagree 2.5 99.0 Disagree strongly 1.0 100.0 Total 100.0

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C18. On the whole, are you very satisfied, fairly satisfied, not very satisfied, or not at all satisfied with the way democracy works in Albania?

42.2 40

33.1

Percent 21.4 20

3.4

0 Very satisfied Fairly satisfied Not very Not at all satisfied satisfied

Percent Cumulative Percent Very satisfied 3.4 3.4 Fairly satisfied 33.1 36.5 Not very satisfied 42.2 78.6 Not at all satisfied 21.4 100.0 Total 100.0

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C47. How much respect is there for individual freedom and human rights nowadays in Albania? Do you feel there is a lot of respect for individual freedom, some respect, not much respect, or no respect at all?

How much respect is there for individual freedom and human rights nowadays in Albania?

60 53.8

Percent 26.1

20 14.1

10 6

0 A lot of Some Not much No respect at respect respect respect all

Percent Cumulative Percent A lot of respect 6.0 6.0 Some respect 53.8 59.9 Not much respect 26.1 85.9 No respect at all 14.1 100.0 Total 100.0

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C20. Some people say that no matter who people vote for, it won't make any difference to what happens. Others say that who people vote for can make a difference to what happens. Using the scale on this card, (where ONE means that voting won't make a difference to what happens and FIVE means that voting can make a difference), where would you place yourself?

70 62.8 60

40 Percent 30

20 12.2 8.9 9.9 10 6.2

0 Vote 234Vote doesn't makes a make a difference difference

Percent Cumulative Percent Vote does not make a difference 8.9 8.9 2 6.2 15.1 3 9.9 25.0 4 12.2 37.2 Vote makes a difference 62.8 100.0 Total 100.0

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C13. Generally speaking about the performance of the government in general, how good or bad a job do you think the socialist led government has done over the past 4 years. Has it done a very good job? A good job? A bad job? A very bad job?

50 44.4

30 Percent 19.7 20

2.9 0 Very good Good Bad Very bad

Percent Cumulative Percent Very good 2.9 2.9 Good 44.4 47.3 Bag 33.0 80.3 Very bad 19.7 100.0 Total 100.0

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C11. What do you think has been the most important issue facing Albania over the last 4 years?

29.9 30 29

20 17.1

15 Percent

5 4.6 4.4 4.2 3.3 2.5 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.1 0 C U P W P B L P I E I H o n o o a a u lle d n i r e v a l d w b g u te g r e te it l c g h u m r r ic g E ic a a r t p p ty / a o n l e t a a ti lo E l v f O m io ti x o y In e o r n o e n m le s rn rc d ig n s c t a e e r i e tr a n m r a n n ic b c & ti to t i il e e C o ty ity n n E / t ri U R m o e a d s

Percent Cumulative Percent Corruption 29.9 29.9 Unemployment 29.0 58.9 Poverty 17.1 75.9 Water / Electricity / Roads 4.6 80.5 Political Instability 4.4 84.9 Weak governance 4.2 89.2 Law enforcement 3.3 92.4 Public order & crime 2.5 94.9 Illegal emigration 1.5 96.5 Education 1.4 97.9 Integration into the EU 1.1 98.9 High taxes 1.1 100.0

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C48. How widespread do you think corruption such as bribe taking is amongst politicians in Albania: very widespread, quite widespread, not very widespread, it hardly happens at all?

How widespread do you think corruption such as bribe taking is amongst politicians in Albania?

80 77.9

40 Percent

20 14.2

4.1 3 0.8 0 V Q N It D e u o H o ry it t n e V a 't W W e rd K i r ly n d id y o e e W H w s s a p p id p re r e p a e s e d a p n d re s a A d t A ll

Percent Cumulative Percent Very widespread 77.9 77.9 Quite widespread 14.2 92.1 Not very widespread 3.0 95.1 It hardly happens at all .8 95.9 Don’t know 4.1 100.0 Total 100.0

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C28. Which party represents your views best?

50 47.1

40 37

30 Percent

10 9.3

1.2 1.4 2.1 1.7 0.2 0 PS PD LSI PR PSD LZhK PDK PBDNj Leka Zogu

Valid Percent PS 37.0 PD 47.1 LSI 9.3 PR 1.2 PSD 1.4 LZhK Leka Zogu 2.1 PDK 0.2 PBDNj 1.7

Note: This is not party identification of the respondents.

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C67. Do the recent elections, because of their outcome or the way in which they were conducted, make you feel hopeful? feel afraid? feel angry?

Do you feel hopeful? Do you feel afraid?

100 100 85.7 81.7 80 80

60 60 Percent Percent 40 40

20 18.3 20 14.3

0 0 Yes No Yes No

Do you feel angry?

100

80.2 Percent 80 Do you feel hopeful? Yes 81.7 No 18.3 60 Do you feel afraid? Yes 14.3 Percent 40 No 85.7

19.8 20 Do you feel angry? Yes 19.8 No 80.2

0 Yes No

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C31. On Election Day, on July 3rd, of all politicians in Albania, who did you most want to be the next Prime Minister?

25.5 25

20.9 20

15 Percent 11.9

10 9.3 7.6 8 6.7 6.3 5

1.7 1 1 0 F S I E B P V L G J N a a lir d a a a e e o u t l M i m n n k n z k o i B R d g a c e s e a ir e je Z fi e N e ta m T l R n d a ri o i l D o u a i n s a p M g l T o h i a u u i o a jk le p o a lli

Percent Cumulative Percent Fatos Nano 11.9 11.9 Sali Berisha 25.5 37.4 Ilir Meta 9.3 46.7 Edi Rama 20.9 67.6 Bamir Topi 7.6 75.2 Pandeli Majko 8.0 83.2 Vangjel Dule 1.0 84.3 Leka Zogu 1.7 86.0 Genc Ruli 1.0 87.0 Jozefina Topalli 6.7 93.7 Don’t know 6.3 100.0

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C31/Blue. On election day, on July 3rd, of all politicians in Albania, who did you most want to be the next Prime Minister? [Voters who identify with political parties in the new government]

60 54.5%

50 Voters who identify with parties in government 40

30 Percent

20 14.6% 14.11%

10 6.08% 2.92% 2.92% 1.22% 1.22% 1.95% 0.24% 0.24% 0 Fatos Sali BerishaIlir Meta Edi B Pandel Vangjel Leka Genc J Nuk am oz efina Topall Ram ir e Nano Zo Rul Top i di a M D gu i ajko ule i

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C31/Red. On Election Day, on July 3rd, of all politicians in Albania, who did you most want to be the next Prime Minister? [Voters who identify with political parties in opposition]

32.42% Voters who 30 identify with 27.43% parties in opposition

Percent 17.96% 15.71%

1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 0.75% 0.75% 0.25% 0.25% 0 F S I E B P V L G J N a a lir d a a a e e o u t l M i m n n k n z k o i B R d g a c e s e a ir e je Z fi e N e ta m T l R n d a ri o i l D o u a i n s a p M g l T h i a u u i o o a j le p ko a lli

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C31/PID. On election day, on July 3rd, of all politicians in Albania, who did you most want to be the next Prime Minister? [Next Prime Minister by party representation]

80 Which party represents your 72.84% views best? PS PD LSI 60 56.2%

Percent 35.83% 34.27%

20 18.52% 18.69% 15.19% 14.43%

3.04% 1.56% 1.56% 1.87% 0.93% 0.62% 0.0% 0 F S I E B P V L G J N a a li d a a a e o u t l r M i R m n n k e z o i B d g a n e k s e ir e je Z c R fi e N e ta a T li M n d a ri m o l D o u a i n s a p g li T o h a u u o a i jk le p o a lli

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C14. What is the most important question or problem that you want the Government and the Parliament of Albania to deal with in the coming months?

34.8

20 Percent 16.5

10 8.7 7.9 6 4.6 4.2 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.5 2.2 1.6 1.4 0 E C P W P P L E L T S P E E a e a m o o a e u d u o m U r v n b w u g x p l p r t i i u e e s l c a c p ti g In lo r r i ic E a l o c r p t o iz u a a t y y / o n t t r e m ti n f io a t l t g o r E s r o io e d n ti fo s r e n le & r o t n a n d e c r a c r e n b & ti t u t w a o c r m o g il n t ic a f r it e i g e y m o it h ic n y e n o t u ig / s u l s tu r R in a e r n o c s e r t a e s d a p s s r e o b le m

Percent Cumulative Percent Employment 34.8 34.8 Corruption 16.5 51.3 Poverty reduction 8.7 60.0 Water / electricity / roads 7.9 67.9 Pensions and wage increase 6.0 73.9 Public order 4.6 78.5 Law enforcement / Justice 4.2 82.7 Education 3.3 86.0 Legalization of houses with no permit 3.2 89.1 Tax cut 3.1 92.2 Support for agriculture & rural areas 2.5 94.8 Political Stability 2.2 97.0 Emigration & problems of emigrants 1.6 98.6 Integration into the EU 1.4 100.0

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C16. And what would be the second most important question or problem that you want the Government and the Parliament of Albania to deal with in the coming months?

20.27 20

15 14.5514.06 Percent 10 7.95 7.66 6.3 5 4.66 4.56 4.56 4.36 3.59 2.91 2.81 1.75

0 E W Co P P P E L T E E S L P a e m a u o e d a m U u o r b v n u w x p g l p t r i i e u l e s c c g In p a ti lo r ic rt i a E ra o l c p o u t iz a y / o y t n t e rt m ti n io f t g a l E o r Re s o io d n r fo ti s e le n & r n a o t n e c r a c r d e & ti n b t t u wa o a ri m n g o il c c e r f it t g e m i y it i n c h y o e o n t ig u / s l u r tu s Ro in a n r e c e s r t a e s d a p s s r e o b le m s

Percent Cumulative Percent Employment 20.3 20.3 Water / electricity / roads 14.5 34.8 Corruption 14.1 48.9 Public order 8.0 56.8 Poverty reduction 7.7 64.5 Pensions and wage increase 6.3 70.8 Education 4.7 75.5 Law enforcement / Justice 4.6 80.0 Tax cut 4.6 84.6 Emigration & emigrants problems 4.4 88.9 Integration into the EU 3.6 92.5 Support for agriculture & rural areas 2.9 95.4 Legalization of houses with no permit 2.8 98.3 Political Stability 1.7 100.0

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C51. Compared to 12 months ago, do you think the general economic situation in Albania is …

Compared to 12 months ago, do you think the general economic situation in Albania is...

40 38.2

30 25.1

20.6 20 Percent 14.9

1.2 0 A lot A little The A little A lot better better same worse worse

Percent Cumulative Percent A lot better 1.2 1.2 A little better 25.1 26.3 The same 38.2 64.4 A little worse 20.6 85.1 A lot worse 14.9 100.0

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C54. And over the next 12 months, how do you think the general economic situation in Albania will be …

Over the next 12 months, how do you think the general economic situation in Albania will be...

51 50

30 Percent

20 18.1 15.6

10 9.2 4.4 1.6 0 A lot A little The A little A lot Don't better better same worse worse know

Percent Cumulative Percent A lot better 9.2 9.2 A little better 51.0 60.2 The same 18.1 78.4 A little worse 4.4 82.8 A lot worse 1.6 84.4 Don’t know 15.6 100.0

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Political Leaders [1]

C40/A. In your opinion, does the phrase “He is honest” describe [Politician’s name] extremely well, quite well, not too well, or not well at all?

In your opinion, how well does the phrase “He is In your opinion, how well does the phrase “He honest” describe Fatos Nano? is honest” describe Sali Berisha? 60 60 57 55.6

50 50

40 40

30 30 Percent Percent 18.1 20.6 20 15.8 20 14.6 10.5 10 10 7.9

0 0 Extremely Quite well Not too Not well well well at all Extremely Quite well Not too Not well at well well all

In your opinion, how well does the phrase “He In your opinion, how well does the phrase “He is honest” describe Ilir Meta? is honest” describe Leka Zogu? 29.35 30 50 46.5 26.05 25 23.66 40 20.93 20 30 15 Percent Percent 20.2 20.4 20 10 12.8 5 10

0 0 Extremely Quite well Not too Not well Extremely Quite well Not too Not well well well at all well well at all

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Political Leaders [2]

C40/B. In your opinion, does the phrase “He provides strong leadership” describe [Politician’s name] extremely well, quite well, not too well, or not well at all?

In your opinion, how well does the phrase “He provides strong leadership” describe Fatos In your opinion, how well does the phrase “He Nano? provides strong leadership” describe Sali Berisha? 40 39.4 50

41.5 40 30 24.5 22 30 26.1 20 Percent Percent 14.1 20 17.1 15.3 10 10

0 0 Extremely Quite well Not too Not well Extremely Quite well Not too Not well well well at all well well at all

In your opinion, how well does the phrase “He In your opinion, how well does the phrase “He provides strong leadership” describe Ilir Meta? provides strong leadership” describe Leka 29.63 Zogu? 30 60 53.5 24.67 24.56 25 50 21.15 20 40

15 30 Percent Percent 20.1 10 20 13.1 13.3 5 10

0 0 Extremely Quite well Not too Not well Extremely Quite well Not too Not well well well at all well well at all

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Political Leaders [3]

C40/C. In your opinion, does the phrase “He really cares about people like you” describe [Politician’s name] extremely well, quite well, not too well, or not well at all?

In your opinion, how well does the phrase “He In your opinion, how well does the phrase “He really cares about people like you” describe really cares about people like you” describe Sali Fatos Nano? Berisha? 70 39 61.8 40 60

50 30 25.3 40 22.2

Percent 20 30 Percent 13.6 20 14.8 11 12.5 10 10

0 0 Extremely Quite well Not too Not well Extremely Quite well Not too Not well well well at all well well at all

In your opinion, how well does the phrase In your opinion, how well does the phrase “He “He really cares about people like you” really cares about people like you” describe describe Ilir Meta? Leka Zogu? 40 60 54.1 33.61 50 30 27.52 23.19 40

20 30 Percent

15.69 Percent

20 16.2 16 10 13.7 10

0 0 Extremely Quite well Not too Not well Extremely Quite well Not too Not well well well at all well well at all

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Political Leaders [4]

C40/D. In your opinion, does the phrase “He is knowledgeable” describe [Politician’s name] extremely well, quite well, not too well, or not well at all?

In your opinion, how well does the phrase “He is In your opinion, how well does the phrase “He is knowledgeable” describe Fatos Nano? knowledgeable” describe Sali Berisha?

80 76.7 60 51.5 50 60 40

40 30 26.2 Percent Percent

20 20 12.6 10.8 11.5 8.1 10 2.6 0 0 Extremely Quite well Not too Not well Extremely Quite well Not too Not well well well at all well well at all

In your opinion, how well does the phrase “He is In your opinion, how well does the phrase “He knowledgeable” describe Ilir Meta? is knowledgeable” describe Leka Zogu? 40 40 34.8 35.8 35.6

30 30 29

22 20 20 Percent Percent 15 14.4 13.4

10 10

0 0 Extremely Quite well Not too Not well Extremely Quite well Not too Not well well well at all well well at all

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Political Leaders, Part Two [1]

C57/A. Has [Politician’s name], because of the kind of person he is or because of something he has done, ever made you feel hopeful?

Has Fatos Nano, because of the kind of person he is Has Sali Berisha, because of the kind of person he is or because of something he has done, ever made or because of something he has done, ever made you feel hopeful? you feel hopeful? 60 55.64 70 64.6

50 60 44.36 50 40 40 30 35.4 Percent

Percent 30 20 20 10 10

0 0 Yes No Yes No

Has Leka Zogu, because of the kind of person Has Ilir Meta, because of the kind of person he is or he is or because of something he has done, because of something he has done, ever made you ever made you feel hopeful? feel hopeful? 100 70 61.4 84.3 60 80 50 60 40 38.6 Percent

Percent 30 40

20 20 15.7 10

0 0 Yes No Yes No

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Political Leaders, Part Two [2]

C57/B. Has [Politician’s name], because of the kind of person he is or because of something he has done, ever made you feel afraid?

60 60

40 40 Percent Percent 27 21.1 20 20

0 0 Yes No Yes No

Has Ilir Meta, because of the kind of person he is or Has Leka Zogu, because of the kind of person because of something he has done, ever made you he is or because of something he has done, feel afraid? ever made you feel afraid? 100 100 91.9 90

80 80

60 60 Percent Percent 40 40

20 20 8.1 10

0 0 Yes No Yes No

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Political Leaders, Part Two [3]

C57/C. Has [Politician’s name], because of the kind of person he is or because of something he has done, ever made you feel angry?

10 10

0 0 Yes No Yes No

Has Ilir Meta, because of the kind of person he is or Has Leka Zogu, because of the kind of person he is because of something he has done, ever made you or because of something he has done, ever made feel angry? you feel angry?

100 100 82.5 88.4 80 80

60 60 Percent 40 Percent 40

17.5 20 20 11.6

0 0 Yes No Yes No

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C55. Now let me ask you about the electoral system in Albania. Under the current electoral system, voters have two votes one for the district candidate and one for the party list. In your opinion, for the next parliamentary elections, should we keep the same electoral system, vote only for the district candidate, or vote only for political parties?

40.8 40

30 26.8

Percent 21.4 20

11.1 10

0 The same Vote only for Vote only for Don't know electoral candidates political system parties

Percent Cumulative Percent The same electoral system 40.8 40.8 Vote only for candidates 26.8 67.6 Vote only for political parties 21.4 88.9 Don’t know 11.1 100.0

The 2005 Albanian Election Study Page 31 of 38

C56. In your opinion, who should decide which electoral system is best for Albania, the party leaders, experts of the OSCE Mission, or the Albanian electorate?

70 61.3 60

40 Percent 30

20.7 20 11.7 10 6.4

0 Party leaders OSCE Albanian Don't know experts voters

Percent Cumulative Percent Party leaders 11.7 11.7 OSCE experts 20.7 32.4 Albanian voters 61.3 93.6 Don’t know 6.4 100.0

The 2005 Albanian Election Study Page 32 of 38

SOME SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES

D31. Do you belong to any religion? Which one?

Religious denominations

70 62.7 60

Percent 30

20 14.7 13.2 10 6 1.5 1.9 0 Muslim Muslim Bektashi Catholic Muslim Sunni Orthodox None

Percent Cumulative Percent Muslim 62.7 62.7 Sunni Muslim 1.5 64.2 Bektashi Muslim 6.0 70.2 Orthodox 14.7 84.9 Catholic 13.2 98.1 None 1.9 100.0 Total 100.0

Note: The study sample represents Albanian voters who live in Albania. Albanian emigrants in other countries (by some estimates up to 30 percent of the total population of Albania) are not captured in this study.

The 2005 Albanian Election Study Page 33 of 38

Religious practice: How often do you go to church, mosque (or teqe)?

How often do you go to church, mosque (or teqe)?

50 46.4

30 25 Percent 20 14

10 9.5 5.1

0 Never Sometimes Very often Very rarely Often

Percent Cumulative Percent Never 46.4 46.4 Very rarely 14.0 60.4 Sometimes 25.0 85.4 Often 5.1 90.5 Very often 9.5 100.0

The 2005 Albanian Election Study Page 34 of 38

D33. Please, use the card to tell us which ethnicity you identify yourself with.

Which ethnicity do you identify yourself with?

100

80.1 80

60 Percent 40

20 11 5.1 1.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0 A A A G V M R lb lb lb r ll a o a a a ee ah c m ni ni ni k ed a an an an o -Ge -T ni o an g sk

Percent Cumulative Percent Albanian 80.1 80.1 Albanian-Geg 11.0 91.1 Albanian-Tosk 5.1 96.2 Greek 1.8 98.0 Vllah .7 98.7 Macedonian .7 99.5 Roma .5 100.0 Total 100.0

The 2005 Albanian Election Study Page 35 of 38

Figure No. 1 Political Party Affinity and Age.

40 Closest political party 34.57% PS PD LSI 30 28.4% 26.81%

23.87% 23.87% 22.59% 21.96%

20 Percent 17.77% 16.57% 16.27% 16.05% 15.75% 14.56%

11.11% 9.88% 10

0 18-29 vjec 30-39 vjec 40-49 vjec 50-59 vjec 60 vjec e siper Political Party affinity and Age

Legend:

18-29 vjec = 18-29 years old 30-39 vjec = 30-39 years old 40-49 vjec = 40-49 years old 50-59 vjec = 50-59 years old 60 vjec e siper = 60 years old or above

The 2005 Albanian Election Study Page 36 of 38

Figure No. 2 Age and Political Party Affinity

70 Age categories 18-29 years old 60.98% 60 30-39 years old 40-49 years old 54.44% 50-59 years old 50.34% 49.62% 50 60 years old & 46.08% over 44.36% 41.01% 40.94% 40

33.54%

Percent 31.95% 30

13.61% 12.9% 10 8.72% 5.49% 6.02%

0 PS PD LSI Age and Political Party Affinity

The 2005 Albanian Election Study Page 37 of 38

Figure No. 3 Political party affinity and Education levels

80 77.09%76.54% Closest 72.07% political party PS PD 60 LSI

40 Percent

19.52% 20.99% 20 14.8%

8.41%8.11% 2.47% 0 Fillore ose me pak 8-vjecare & e mesme Universitet ose me shume Political party affinity and Education levels

Legend:

Fillore ose me pak = Elementary school or less 8-vjecare & e mesme = 8 grade or high school Universitet ose me shume = University degree or higher

The 2005 Albanian Election Study Page 38 of 38

Figure No. 4 Education levels and Political party affinity

Level of education Elementary or less 60 8-grade & high school 53.12% University or more 51.68% 50 45.14% 43.75% 43.06%

40 38.4%

30 Percent

11.81% 9.92% 10

3.12%

0 PS PD LSI Education level and Political Party Affinity