Resource Limitations on Earth-Energy

Resource Limitations on Earth- Energy

January 26, 2004 Professor G. L. Kulcinski Energy is essential for our health, economy, and safety. Outline of Lecture on Energy • Definitions of Power and Energy Units • Historical Energy Use a) World b) United States • Current Energy Use Patterns • Projected Energy Use a) World b) United States • Consequences of Dependence on Fossil Energy • World Energy Resources – a) Fossil – b) Nuclear –c) Renewables • What Energy Resources in Space? Summary of Frequently Used Energy Units

Unit Definition Joule (J) Work Done by the Force of 1 Newton Acting Over a Distance of 1 m. (Also = 107 ergs) British Thermal Unit (BTU) The Amount of Energy Needed to Raise 1 Pound of Water by 1 °F

QUAD 1015 BTU's

kilocalorie (kcal) Energy Required to Raise 1 kg of Water 1°C

(mtce) Metric Tonne of Coal Equivalent

(boe) Energy Equivalent of a Barrel of Oil

mtoe Metric Tonne of Oil Equivalent

m3 gas Cubic Meter of Natural Gas @ Standard Temperature and Pressure -1 atm. and 273 °K. ft3 gas Cubic Foot of Natural Gas @ Standard Temperature and Pressure - 1 atm. and 273 °K. Conversion Table for Energy Units

Joules BTU Quads kcal mtce boe mtoe m3 gas ft3 gas kWh TWy 1 J = 9.479 E-4 9.479 E-19 2.39 E-3 3.414 E-11 1.634 E-10 2.234 E-11 2.684 E-8 9.48 E-7 2.78E-7 3.171 E-20 1 BTU = 1055 1 E-15 0.2522 3.602 E-8 1.724 E-7 2.357 E-8 2.832 E-5 0.001 2.93E-4 3.345 E-17 1 QUAD = 1.055 E+181 E+15 252 E+12 3.602 E+7 1.724 E+8 2.357 E+7 2.832 E+101 E+12 2.93E+11 0.03345 1 kcal = 4184 3.966 3.966 E-15 1.429 E-9 6.838 E-7 9.347 E-8 1.123 E-4 3.966 E-3 1.16E-3 1.327 E-16 1 mtce = 29.29 E+9 27.76 E+6 27.76 E-9 7 E+6 4.786 0.6543 786.1 2.776 E+4 8,135 9.287 E-10 1 boe = 6.119 E+9 5.8 E+6 5.8 E-9 1.462 E+6 0.2089 0.1367 164.2 5800 1,699 1.94 E-10 1 mtoe = 44.76 E+9 42.43 E+6 42.43 E-9 1.07 E+7 1.528 7.315 1201 42,430 12,430 1.94 E-4 1 m3 gas = 37.26 E+6 35.31 E+3 35.31 E-12 8905 1.272 E-3 6.089 E-3 8.323 E-4 35.31 10.35 1.181 E-12 1 ft3 gas = 1.055 E+6 1000 1 E-12 252.2 3.6 E-5 1.724 E-4 2.357 E-5 0.02832 0.2930 3.345 E-14 1 kWh = 3.60E+6 3.41E+3 3.41E-12 860.39 1.228 E-4 5.88E-4 8.042E-05 0.096621 3.412 1.142E-13 1 TWy = 3.154 E+192.989 E+16 29.89 7.537 E+151.076 E+9 5.154 E+9 7.045 E+8 8.464 E+112.989 E+13 8.76E+12 What is the Significance of the Energy in One Barrel of Oil

• It can produce 1,700 kWh of heat (≈ 550 kWhe) – This is enough to run a 1,500 W hair dryer for ≈ 1 h every day for a year – This enough to provide 2.6 h of electricity to the ME building – This is enough to provide ≈ 30 s of electricity to the Madison Campus • It is equal to the energy in 200 kg of coal • It is equal to the energy in 5,800 ft3 (164 m3) of natural gas • It can produce 18 days of electricity for the average U. S. citizen • It can power an average automobile in the U. S. for 1,000 miles (the distance driven by the average car in the U. S. in 33 days) • It can provide the energy consumed by the average American in 6.6 d.

The World Energy Use Per Capita Has Been Essentially Constant Since the Oil Crisis of 1973 But the Population continues to Increase

12 Annual Energy 10 Use (boe) per Capita 8 6

2 World Population (billions) 0 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 The Total Energy Use in the World Has Increased by Over a Factor of 4 Since World War II

80 70 60 e/y

o 50 b

o 40 s n 30 llio i

B 20 10 0 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Fossil Fuels Still Account for Over 85% of the Primary Energy Consumed in the World

80 70

60 Hydro Nuclear y / e 50 bo f Gas o 40

s Other n o i

l 30 l

bi Oil 20 10 Coal 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source for Projections: International Energy Outlook-2003 (proj) Fossil Fuels Still Account for Over 85% of the Primary Energy Consumed in the World

80 70 9% Hydro & 6% Other y 60 Nuclear 24% e/

o 50 b f Gas

o 40

s 8%

n 38% 30 17%

ilio Oil

b 20 36% 10 Coal 23% 39% 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 (proj) Although the U. S. Energy Use Per capita Has Been Relatively Constant Since the Oil Crisis of 1973, the Increase in Population has Pushed up the Energy Consumption 350 300 250 Population (millions) 200

150 100 Annual Energy Use Per Capita (boe/y). 50 0 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 The Total Energy Use in the U. S. Has Increased by a Factor of 4 Since World War II

18 16 14 ar ye

/ 12 e o

b 10

of 8 s n o

i 6 l l

Bi 4 2 0 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Source of Data Since 1973-Monthly Energy review-December, 2003, DOE/EIA-0035(2003/12) Fossil Fuels Still Account For 89% of the Primary Energy Consumed in the United States

18 3% Other 16 3% Nuclear 8% 14

r Hydro

a 12

e 24% 4% 10 Gas er y 8 e p

o 30% b 6 39% b Oil 4 44% 2 Coal 23% 0 22% 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 The U. S. Continues to Use a Large Amount of Energy Per Capita

70 60 r a e 50 y United States r e 40 p a t i 30 p ca e/ 20 World o b 10 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 The Energy Use per Person in the U.S. is Much Larger Than in the Rest of the World

UnitedUnited StatesStates 1717 XX BillionBillion BOE/yearBOE/year

0.290.29 BillionBillion 5858 BOE/personBOE/person

RestRest ofof 7171 thethe XX BillionBillion WorldWorld BOE/yearBOE/year 6.36.3 BillionBillion 11.311.3 BOE/personBOE/person The World can be conveniently broken up into 6 groups of countries according to location and economic strength. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is the major "player" in this grouping. In 2000 hte OECD Nations Comprised Only 17% of the World's Population But Consumed 53% of the World's Energy

Population 40 3500.0

35 3000.0

30 2500.0 a t pi a 25 ons i C l

l i r 2000.0 M pe

r 20 on- i a t e 1500.0 a Y r

15 opul P pe e 1000.0 bo 10

5 500.0

0 0.0 OECD EE/FSU Middle East Central/So. Non-OECD Asia Africa America Over the Next 10 Years the Energy Consumption of the Non-OECD Asian Nations is Projected to Increase at 3-4 Times the Rate of the OECD Nations

45 40 35

e/y 30 o

b OECD f 25

o Rest of World s

n 20 Non-OECD Asia 15 illio B 10 5 0 1992 2000 2005 2010 Source: International Energy Outlook-2003

Fossil Fuels Still Produce 2/3's of the Electricity Consumed in the United States

2.4 2.2 Other 2 1.8 Hydro 1.6 1.4 Nuclear 1.2 1 Natural gas 0.8 0.6 Oil 0.4 0.2 Coal 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Source: Annual Energy Review-2000, DOE/EIA-4444 (2000) Nuclear Power Continues to Outstrip the Non-Fossil Fuels in Generation of Electricity in the United States

900 800 Nuclear 20 % 0f U. S. 700 Production h 600 kW

f 500 Hydro

ns o 400 o i l

l 300 i B 200 Wood and Waste 100 Geothermal Wind and Solar 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Source:Monthly Energy Review Dec-2003, U. S. Dept. of Energy, DOE/EIA-0035(2001/12 WorldWorld PopulationPopulation GrowthGrowth PastPast andand FutureFuture 10 20732073 WorldWorld 9 20482048 PopulationPopulation 8 20282028 (Billions)(Billions) 7 20132013 6 19991999 5 19871987 4 19751975 3 19601960 2 1 19301930 18301830 0 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 YEYEARAR The Annual Per Capita Energy Use Rate is Predicted to Rise to 15 boe by the Middle of 21st Century Mainly Because of Increased Energy Use in Non-OECD Asia

16 14 a

t 12

pi IIASA a 10 c /

e IEA o 8 b

l U. S. DOE 6 Holdren nnua 4 A 2 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 World Energy Consumption and Resources for the Future 15 CUMULATIVE NEEDS TOTALTOTAL CUMULATIVE NEEDS ENERGYENERGY TrillionTrillion BarrelsBarrels ofof 10 OilOil EquivalentEquivalent

0 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 YearYear World Energy Needs

PresentPresent 7171 XX BillionBillion BOE/yearBOE/year 6.36.3 BillionBillion 11.311.3 barrels/barrels/ capitacapita FutureFuture 150150 XX BillionBillion BOE/yearBOE/year

1010 BillionBillion 1515 barrels/barrels/ capitacapita The World Reserves of Fossil Fuel are Dominated by Coal (January 1, 2002)

5 e o 4 b f o s 3 n io ill

r 2 T 1

0 Coal Oil Natural Gas

Source: International Energy Annual 2001 There is Twice as Much Energy in the World's Reserves of Uranium Used in LMFBR's Than in All the Fossil Fuel Reserves in the World

16 14 12 10 8 6

Trillions of boe 4 2 0 Uranium Used in LWR's Uranium Used in LMFBR's

Source: World Nuclear Outlook-1995 World Energy Consumption and Resources for the Future

15 CUMULATIVE NEEDS TOTALTOTAL CUMULATIVE NEEDS ENERGYENERGY

TrillionTrillion NUCLEARNUCLEAR ENERGYENERGY BarrelsBarrels ofof 10 (Fission,(Fission, Fusion)Fusion) OilOil EquivalentEquivalent

RECOVERABLERECOVERABLE FOSSILFOSSIL FUELFUEL (Oil,(Oil, Gas,Gas, Coal)Coal)

0 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 YearYear The worldwide production of oil is predicted by Campbell et. al., (Scientific American, March 1998) to peak shortly after the turn of the century.

2002 The Proved Reserves of Natural Gas and Oil in the U. S. Have Been Dropping for Over 25 Years

40 35 es Natural rv

e 30

s Gas e

R 25 Oil

e in 20 o b

f 15 o n 10 llio i 5 B 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 The Worldwide Emissions of Carbon from the Burning of Fossil Fuels is Approximately 1 Tonne per Person per Year

8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Billions of Tonnes Carbon/Year Billions of Tonnes 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

International Energy Annual-2001, DOE/EIA-0219(01), Mar. 2003 Competition for Fossil Energy Can Lead to Conflict Technical Potential of Solar Energy Used Collected on the Earth

• 1.) Solar energy has the same level of potential to provide essentially inexhaustible long-term energy source for society as does the LMFBR.

• 2.) Local use of solar energy has the potential to provide only ≈ 5-10 billion boe/y while centralized uses have much higher potential.

• 3.) A global solar option would exhibit enormous heterogeneity.

• 4.) Land availability is not expected to be a binding constraint in the end.

• 5.) Large scale storage capacity will probably turn out to be the key barrier

• 6.) No more than 5-10 billion boe/y should be expected before 2030.

• 7.) High capital costs are the immediate barrier to commercialization

• 8.) Environmental effects are not entirely benign (risks in material intensive industries, GaAs, etc.)

Source: W. Hafele, ENERGY IN A FINITE WORLD-A Global Systems Analysis Technical Potential of Renewable Resources Resource Annual Energy Potential Comment (billion boe/y) Biomass 30 Requires cultivation of virtually all the productive land in the world Hydro power 15 Includes minor contribution from glaciers Wind 15 High quality but utilization must deal with energy storage OTEC 5 Potential is great if ocean heat can be diverted on a large scale Geothermal 10 Technology not available for large scale heat “mining”. Localized. Tidal 0.2 Very localized

Total ≈ 75 What Energy Resources Can We Expect in or From Space ?

• Fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas, biomass)? •Wind? • Geothermal, Hydro, Waves? •Uranium? •Solar? •What Else?