Ph.D. Thesis Indian Military's Strategic Thinking Since 2001
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Ph.D. Thesis Indian Military’s Strategic Thinking Since 2001: Implications for the Deterrence Stability of South Asia Researcher: Supervisor: Masood Ur Rehman Khattak Prof. Dr. Mansoor Akbar Kundi Reg No/Roll No. 5FSS-PHDIR/S15 Co-Supervisor Prof. Dr. Amna Mahmood Department of Politics and International Relations Faculty of Social Sciences International Islamic University, Islamabad. 2018 Indian Military’s Strategic Thinking Since 2001: Implications for the Deterrence Stability of South Asia Masood Ur Rehman Khattak Reg No. 5FSS-PHDIR/S15 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Ph.D. Degree in Discipline) Social Sciences with specialization in International Relations at the Faculty of Social Sciences International Islamic University Islamabad. Supervisor November 19, 2018 Professor Dr Mansoor Akbar Kundi Co- Supervisor Professor Dr Amna Mahmood Dedication I dedicate this Ph.D. thesis to my beloved Parents for their kindness, unparalleled inspiration and endless support throughout my studies. Dear Ami and Abu Ji, your selflessness will always be remembered. Thank you for enabling me to achieve this feat. (Acceptance by the Viva Voce Committee) Title of the thesis: Indian Military’s Strategic Thinking Since 2001: Implications for the Deterrence Stability of South Asia. Name of the Student: Masood Ur Rehman Khattak Registration No: 5FSS-PHDIR/S15 Accepted by the Faculty of Social Sciences and Department of Political Science and International Relations, International Islamic University, Islamabad, Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the doctor of philosophy degree in social sciences with specialization in International Relations. Viva Voce Committee ________________________________ Dean ________________________________ Head of the Department ________________________________ External Examiner ________________________________ Supervisor ________________________________ Member December 18, 2018 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Acknowledgment I II. List of Abbreviations III III. Figures VII IV. Abstract VIII Introduction 01 a. Research Questions 02 b. Statement of the Problem 02 c. Objectives of the Study 03 d. Significance of the study 03 e. Delimitation of the study 04 f. Methodology 04 g. Background of the Study 06 Chapter- 1 12 Strategic and Ideological Base for Doctrinal Maneuvering by the Indian Military 12 1. Introduction 12 1.1. Theoretical Framework 14 1.2. Hindutva Ideology: A Driving Force for the Doctrinal Shift 27 a) The Emergence of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh- (RSS) 27 b) Bhartiya Jan Sangh- 1951: (Indian People’s Party) 31 c) BJP in Modern Times and RSS Influence 31 Chapter-2 41 The Indian Military’s Doctrinal Transformation 41 2. Introduction 41 2.1. From Total War to Shallow Maneuvers-CSD 2004 44 2.2. The IAF Doctrine of 2012: Sub-conventional Warfare 48 2.3. The Indian Maritime Strategy- 2015 52 2.4. The Joint Indian Armed Forces Doctrine – 2017 56 2.5. The Execution of Hybrid Warfare Strategy by India 58 a) Defining the Concept of Hybrid Warfare 59 b) The Application of Hybrid Warfare on Pakistan 62 c) The Established of Technical Service Division- (TSD) – 2008 65 d) Ajit Doval - Defensive-Offense Doctrine 67 Chapter-3 74 Indian Military Modernization and Operationalization of the Doctrines 74 3. Introduction 74 3.1. Modernization of the Indian Army 75 a) Procurement of the T-90- MBTs- Quick Maneuvers 75 b) Long Range Artillery Guns: Offensive Fire Power 76 c) The S-400: Long Range Air Defense System 78 d) Barak-8 Medium Range –Surface to Air Missile- (MR-SAM) 80 e) The Swathi Weapon Locating Radars: A threat to Artillery 81 f) The Procurement of Anti-Tank Guided Missiles-(ATGMs): Threat to Armour 82 i. Nag: Anti-Tank Guided Missile-(ATGM) 82 ii. The Israeli Spike-ATGM 83 g) The induction of AH-64E Apache Helicopter: Flying Tank 84 3.2. Transformation in the Indian Air Force: Step towards Air Dominance 85 a) The SU-30 MKI Aircraft: Air Superiority 86 b) French Dassault Rafale Aircraft 88 c) The Logistics and Transport Aircraft 89 3.3. Refurbishment of the Indian Navy: Sea Dominance 90 a) Conventional and Nuclear Submarines: Assured Second Strike Capability 93 b) The acquisition of highly sophisticated Destroyers: Offensive Punch at Sea 95 c) The procurement of INS Kiltan- Anti-Submarine Warfare Corvette 96 d) The Induction of P8-I- Aircraft: Eyes at Sea 96 3.4. Long Range/ Endurance UAVs in the Indian Military 98 3.5. The Indian Space Program: Military Application 99 3.6. The Operationalization: Military Exercises- (2004-2018) 107 3.6. 1. The Exercise Divya Astra- 2004 110 3.6. 2. The Exercise Vajra Shakti- 2005 111 3.6. 3. The Exercise Desert Strike- 2005 112 3.6. 4. Exercise Sanghe Shakti- 2006 113 3.6. 5. The Exercise Ashwamedh- 2007 113 3.6. 6. The Exercise Shatrunash- 2007 114 3.6. 7. The Exercise Brazen Chariots- 2008 114 3.6. 8. The Exercise Hind Shakti- 2009 115 3.6. 9. The Exercise Vayu Shakti- 2010 116 3.6. 10. The Exercise Yodha Shakti- 2010 116 3.6. 11. The Exercise Vijayee Bhava-2011 117 3.6. 12. The Exercise Pine Prahar – 2011 119 3.6. 13. The Exercise Sudarshan Shakti- 2011 120 3.6. 14. The Exercise Ashwamedh-2012 122 3.6. 15. The Exercise Shoor Veer-2012 122 3.6. 16. The Exercise Rudra Akrosh- 2012 124 3.6. 17. The Exercise Iron Fist- 2013 124 3.6. 18. The Exercise Panchjanya- 2013 125 3.6. 19. The Exercise Shahbaaz Ajay- 2013 126 3.6. 20. The Exercise Sarvada Vijay- 2014 126 3.6. 21. The Exercise Drad Sankalp- 2015 127 3.6. 22. The Exercise Shatrujeet- 2016 127 3.6. 23. The Exercise Sarvatra Prahar- 2016 128 3.6. 24. The Exercise Chakravyuh-II- 2016 129 3.6. 25. The Exercise Megh Prahar- 2016 129 3.6. 26. The Exercise Iron Fist- 2016 130 3.6. 27. The Thar Shakti Exercise- 2017 131 3.6. 28. The Exercise Tropex – 2017 131 3.6. 29. Exercise Hamesha Vijayee- 2017 132 3.6. 30. Exercise Gagan Shakti- 2018 133 3.6. 31. Exercise Vijay Prahar- 2018 135 3.7. Evaluation of the Indian Military Exercises- 2004-2018 136 Chapter-4 141 Implications for the Deterrence Stability of South Asia 141 4. Introduction 141 4. 1. Conventional Disparity in South Asia 143 4.2. Renewed Arms Race between India and Pakistan 149 a) The Al-Khalid- Main Battle Tank: Answer to T-90 MBT of India 152 b) Competition in the Air Defense capabilities of India and Pakistan 153 c) Race for Anti-Tank Guided Missiles- ATGMs 155 d) Balancing in the Advanced Artillery Guns 156 e) Pakistan’s Procurement of Artillery Guns: Balancing Firepower 157 f) The South African T5-52 is 155mm and 52 calibre Artillery Gun 157 g) The Siberian Artillery Gun- NORA B-52 158 h) The South Korean KH179 155mm Towed Howitzers 158 i) Competition for Second Strike Capability in South Asia 159 j) India- Pakistan Competition for Attack Helicopters 160 k) Chinese Z-10 Attack Helicopters 160 l) Russian Mi-35 attack helicopter 161 m) The US AH-1Z Viper helicopters 162 n) The Turkish T-129 Attack Helicopters 163 o) Competition in the Domain of Long Endurance Armed UAVs 164 4.3. Risks of a Limited War in South Asia 165 4.4. The Development and Deployment of Tactical Nukes 169 a) The Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Cold War Experience 170 b) Pakistan’s rational for Tactical Nuclear Weapon: The Hatf-IX- (NASR) 171 c) Indo-Pak Race for Tactical Nukes 174 d) Accidental Launch/ Miscalculation/ Unauthorized use 174 e) Lowering of the Nuclear Threshold 175 5. Conclusion 181 Findings and Discussion 186 i. Impact of Hindutva and Kautilya on the Strategic Thinking of India 186 ii. The Doctrinal Transformation in the Post 2001 Scenario 188 a. The CSD or Proactive Military Operations: Shallow Maneuvers 189 b. Sub-conventional Warfare or Surgical Strikes 189 c. The Hybrid Warfare Strategy 190 iii. The Indian Military Modernization and its Impact on Pakistan 191 iv. Regular Military Exercises Since 2004 192 v. Possibility of Limited War in South Asia 192 vi. Battlefield Nuclear Weapons and the Related Issues 193 vii. Second Strike Capability and Deterrence Stability 194 viii. Space Assets/ Spy Satellites for Military Purposes 195 Recommendations 196 a. Expand Indigenous Defense Industry 196 b. Medium and Long-Range Air Defense Systems 196 c. Enhance Strategic Partnership with China 197 d. Maintain Credible Deterrence 198 e. Pakistan’s Surveillance and Reconnaissance Capabilities 198 f. Synergy and Integration in the Armed Forces: Regular Military Exercises 199 g. Research and Development in High Technology Areas 199 h. Enhance Human Intelligence 200 i. Socio-Economic Development in Balochistan and FATA 200 j. Consistent Dialogue Process 201 References 203 Appendix-I: Questionnaire for Interviews 225 Appendix-II: Interview Schedule Guide 227 FORWARDING SHEET The thesis entitled ‘Indian Military’s Strategic Thinking Since 2001: Implications for the Deterrence Stability of South Asia’, submitted by Masood Ur Rehman Khattak is partial fulfillment of Ph.D degree in Social Sciences with specialization in International Relations has been completed under my guidance and supervision. I am satisfied with the quality of student’s research work and allow him to submit this thesis for further process as per IIU-rules & regulations. Date: Dec 20, 2018 Signature: ________________________ Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Mansoor Akbar Kundi Signature: ________________________ Co-Supervisor Prof. Dr. Amna Mahmood ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I am highly grateful to my supervisors Professor Dr. Mansoor Akbar Kundi and Professor. Dr Amna Mahmood for their consistent help and support throughout my Ph.D. process. Without their backing Ph.D. would have been a distant dream. I am extremely thankful to my lovely Colleagues/Teachers Dr. Manzoor Khan Afridi, Professor Dr. Muhammad Khan, Tauqeer Hussain Sargana, Inam Ullah Jan Afridi, Dr. Manzoor Nazir and Dr.