Book a Reality Through Several Stages of Its Incarnation
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Acknowledgements But how do we fashion the future? Who can say how except in the minds of those who will call it Now? ‘Of History and Hope’- Miller Williams This anthology is the result of an international conference held in November 2017 by the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) in collaboration with the Hanns Seidel Foundation (HSF), in Islamabad, Pakistan. Most of the papers, essays and thought pieces in their earlier form were presented at the conference. The Institute would like to thank all the presenters who helped to make the conference a great success, laying a solid foundation for the anthology in its final form. The President of IPRI would like to extend his special regards to General Zubair Mahmood Hayat, NI (M), Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC), Pakistan; Mr Vladimir Potapenko, Deputy Secretary General, Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), China; and Dr Jens Jokisch, Chargé d’affaires, Embassy of the Federal Republic of Germany for gracing the conference with their presence and their remarks. Gratitude is also extended to all the distinguished plenary speakers and session chairs. It is also important to applaud the hard work of the staff at IPRI: the Conference Coordinator and the Assistant Conference Coordinator for following up with the speakers and delegates; the dedicated Administration Branch who managed the logistics; the Research Staff for being such conscientious hosts; and the Publication Branch, who liasioned with the media for print and electronic coverage, arranged interviews of several speakers on various news channels, and for making this book a reality through several stages of its incarnation. The conference was financially supported by the Hanns Seidel Foundation (HSF). i Acronyms and Abbreviations AAGC Asia-Africa Growth Corridor ABMT Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty ADB Asian Development Bank ADMM ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting AIIB Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank AJK Azad Jammu and Kashmir APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation APHC All-Parties Hurriyat Conference ARF ASEAN Regional Forum ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations BIMSTEC Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation BJP Bharatiya Janata Party BRI Belt and Road Initiative BRICS Brazil-Russia-India-China and South Africa BTC Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline CARs Central Asian Republics CASA-1000 Central Asia-South Asia power project CBMs Confidence Building Measures CENTO Central Treaty Organization CFVs Ceasefire Violations CICT Colombo International Container Terminal CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CMD Credible Minimum Deterrence CPC Communist Party of China CPEC China-Pakistan Economic Corridor CSCE Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe CSTO Collective Security Treaty Organization iii CVE Countering Violent Extremism DPP Democratic Progressive Party EEC Eurasian Economic Community EEU Eurasian Economic Union EJF Environment Justice Foundation EU European Union FDI Foreign Direct Investment FNOPs Freedom of Navigation Operations FPCCI Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry FSI Fragile States Index FTAAP Free Trade Area of Asia-Pacific GB Gilgit-Baltistan GDP Gross Domestic Product GHGs Greenhouse Gases GLOFs Glacial Lakes Outburst Floods GUUAM Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova HoA Heart of Asia ICRC International Committee of the Red Cross IDMC Internal Displacement Monitoring Center IDPs Internally Displaced Persons IMF International Monetary Fund INSTC International North-South Trade Corridor IO Indian Ocean IOK Indian Occupied Kashmir IOJ&K Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir IOR Indian Ocean Region IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPI Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline iv ISAF International Security Assistance Force ISIS Islamic State of Iraq and Syria IWT Indus Waters Treaty J&K Jammu and Kashmir JMSDF Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force KPK Khyber Pakhtunkhwa LNG Liquefied Natural Gas LoC Line of Control LTTE Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam MTCR Missile Technology Control Regime NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NGO Non-Governmental Organisation NPT Non-Proliferation Treaty NSA Non-State Actors NSG Nuclear Suppliers Group NTSTs Non-Traditional Security Threats OBOR One Belt One Road OSCE Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe PLAN People’s Liberation Army Navy PRC People’s Republic of China QCG Quadrilateral Coordination Group RATS Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure RAW Research and Analysis Wing RECCA Regional Economic Cooperation Conference on Afghanistan RSF Reporters Without Borders SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SACs South Asian Countries v SAFTA South Asian Free Trade Area SALT Strategic Arms Limitation Talks SAPTA South Asian Preferential Trade Arrangement SAR South Asian Region SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization SEATO Southeast Asia Treaty Organization SIPRI Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SLOC Sea Lines of Communication SRF Silk Road Fund START Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty SVR Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation TAPI Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Pipeline TTP Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan TEU Twenty Equivalent Units UAS Unmanned Aerial Systems UDHR Universal Declaration of Human Rights UK United Kingdom UN United Nations UNCIP United Nations Commission on India and Pakistan UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNFCCC-COP20 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change-20th Conference of the Parties UNSC United Nations Security Council WB Working Boundary WoT War on Terror vi Introduction Introduction Ambassador (R) Abdul Basit, Dr Muhammad Munir and Maryam Nazir eographically, South Asia comprises of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, G and Sri Lanka. It is contiguously located near the Middle East, Central Asia, China and the Indian Ocean. Apart from geography and shared history, there is little that encourages or compels the region to cohere. In fact, South Asia today is one of the least integrated areas of the world with intra-regional trade merely accounting for five per cent as compared to 58 per cent of the European Union (EU), 52 per cent of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) region, and 26 per cent of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Challenges over the years have been compounded by harsh natural calamities, human and food insecurity, mounting economic crunch, changing security paradigms and above all, the birth of transnational terrorism in the aftermath of 9/11. Socially, the region is diverse and unique as it holds people from different backgrounds and ethnicities together. South Asia’s political milieu is becoming increasingly grim as the spirit of nationalism among states is getting stronger which, more often than not, overshadows the prospects of and for regionalism. The ambitions of economic interaction and interdependence have largely remained unaddressed due to polarisation among regional states. An assessment of social-political trends highlights that the region is facing multidimensional challenges of socioeconomic and political-military nature. The 2030 UN Agenda for Sustainable Development, comprising of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is especially relevant for the eight countries as they are home to 37 vii Regional Dynamics and Strategic Concerns in South Asia per cent of the world’s poor, nearly half of the world’s malnourished children, and suffer from a number of development and infrastructure gaps. In spite of having geographical contiguity, many believe that South Asia will continue to be a major conflict prone area on the globe. The two major countries - Pakistan and India -have inherited their core issues, especially the Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) dispute, from the days of Partition in 1947. Despite the presence of a unity government in Afghanistan, the security situation has further deteriorated. In order to build peace, various consulting groups have been established to facilitate negotiations between the Afghan government and all ethnic groups, but so far no major success has been achieved. The situation is further complicated by the growing presence of Daesh. On 21 August 2017, President Donald Trump in his speech on South Asia committed to US engagement in Afghanistan by sending more troops. He announced developing a strategic partnership with India and giving it a bigger role in Afghanistan. The situation in Afghanistan has the potential to undermine the prospects of inter-regional connectivity of Central Asia to South Asia and West Asia upto Europe. In this context, security of this country is paramount for security in South Asia. The long and persistent influence of external powers in decision-making in South Asia has partly impacted the political evolution of its states. Since the end of the Cold War, the US is aiming to maintain its influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean (IO) for strategic reasons. This strategic interest is visible from its partnership agreements with India and Afghanistan, and its long-standing engagement in Pakistan. From a Pakistani perspective, the engagement of Russia in South Asia seems to be more pragmatic in the context of its relations with India and Pakistan, and its efforts towards bringing peace in Afghanistan. Besides maintaining good relations with viii Introduction India, Russia is also reaching out to Pakistan. Furthermore, it is engaged in Afghanistan to fight Daesh and resolve the Afghan