FIIA MARCH 2021 COMMENT 4

Timo R. Stewart, Senior Research Fellow, FIIA

ISRAEL’S 2021 ELECTION

ANOTHER DEADLOCK IN A VOTE ON IDENTITY, THE ROLE OF RELIGION, AND BIBI

Israel’s two-year government crisis was not conclusively resolved in the 23 March election. Netanyahu has led the country to the right, but the prime minister remains a divisive fgure also within the right. Te stalemate might give Israeli Arab parties slightly greater heft than before.

Te Likud party of Benjamin “Bibi” Te very strong role given to per- require several small parties, af- Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister sonalities has displaced actual pol- fording them outsized infuence. A since 2009, sufered setbacks in the icy content to an astonishing de- coalition of six parties seems to be 23 March parliamentary election, gree in both domestic and foreign the minimum for forming a major- but remained by far the largest in policy debate. A signifcant part of ity government now. the 120-seat Knesset. More signif- the discussions both before and af- Netanyahu’s opponents face an cant was the failure of Netanyahu’s ter the election focused on coali- even harder job of cobbling a coa- favoured government coalition to tion preferences rather than party lition together, as they do not have reach the 61 seats needed for a ma- platforms or outlined policies. Of much in common beyond their jority. Tis government would have course many of the parties have hopes for a new prime minister. Talk been built on Likud and four right- well-established interest groups of an anti-Netanyahu bloc easily ob- wing and religious parties. It is still and ideological ties and there is scures the fact that it is composed of not impossible for him to succeed also a structural reason for a more parties ranging from the hard right in patching together a majority relational focus. In addition to the to the shrunken left. Te role of the with the help of an additional par- Likud (30 seats) and the centrist two parties drawing their support ty, or defectors. However, Netan- Yesh Atid (17), the Knesset now has from Israeli Arabs is far from clear. yahu’s most straightforward route 11 small parties with between 4 and A political impasse or a short-lived to 61 is blocked, just as it was in the 9 seats each. As a coalition between compromise government might previous election rounds. the larger parties is out of the ques- result in a fifth round of elections Indeed, for many voters, this tion, mainly due to reasons linked sooner or later. Tis would further is all about Netanyahu personally. to Netanyahu personally, majorities exacerbate the political crisis. C FINNISH INSTITUTE - OF INTERNATIONAL -IL AFFAIRS FIIA COMMENT MARCH 2021 I 4

Even though the elections have As for the right-left divide it- In this sense, the political de- become something akin to a ref- self, it has over the past decades bate in Israel is like that of many erendum on Netanyahu, greater been associated with views relat- other countries in which ethnicity, questions related to identity and ed to the two-state solution: the identity and nationalism are being the role of religion in society lurk left has taken a more positive view discussed. A manifestation of the in the background. Te frontlines towards a Palestinian state and growing right-wing infuence was of these issues have remained very been suspicious of West Bank set- the entry into the Knesset, with Ne- stable from one election to the tlements. The right has taken the tanyahu’s support, of the Religious next. The March 2021 election is opposite view. However, the Pal- Zionism party, which can be seen strongly reminiscent of the elec- estinian issue has hardly featured as an extreme representation of the tions in April 2019, September 2019 in the 2019–2021 elections and is ethnonationalist current. One of its and March 2020, even in spite of clearly not a priority for most vot- Members of Knesset, Itamar Ben- the Covid pandemic that broke out ers. If the matter does return to the Gvir, is renowned for his admira- in between. agenda due to outside pressure, tion of the Kach party, which has In the elections of 2019–2021, the settlements now have stronger been listed as a terrorist organisa- Likud has won at least a quarter of support in the Knesset. tion in the EU and the United States, the Knesset mandates (30–35 seats). A more topical left-right di- and is banned as racist in Israel. Another quarter has gone to a col- vide relates to Israel as a Jewish Simultaneously with this shift lection of small right-wing parties and democratic state. The right to the right, the significance of representing the Ultra Orthodox, has emphasised Israel’s Jewish na- Israeli Arabs has paradoxically in- the religious nationalist and the sec- ture, although not necessarily in a creased, as every vote and every ular right. Although together with strictly religious sense. For exam- Knesset seat is needed more than the Likud these parties have won ple, according to the Nation State ever to break the political dead- at least half of the total seats, even Law of 2018, “The State of Israel lock. Even Netanyahu campaigned more in the most recent election is the national home of the Jew- in Arab cities. Both before and after cycle, they have their differences, ish people”. Te left, on the other the election, there was speculation particularly related to the role of hand, has emphasised an Israeli particularly about Ra’am, led by religion in society. Netanyahu has identity as something more open Mansour Abbas, joining Netanya- been prepared to ally with the Ultra and based largely on citizenship, hu’s right-wing government, or at Orthodox, which part of the right is as well as defending the secular least supporting it from the outside. opposed to. Tis has made it difcult nature of the state. Tis approach Although this is unlikely to happen, to form a government with a stable has maintained more equal oppor- such talk is in itself a sign of change. majority and has contributed to the tunities for Israeli Arabs, just over No Arab party has ever been in- recurring rounds of elections. a ffth of Israeli citizens. cluded in an Israeli government. I

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