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In Israel, Change Coalition Ousts Netanyahu, but Little Change Expected

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In Israel, Change Coalition Ousts Netanyahu, but Little Change Expected JOINT PUBLICATION 11 JUNE 2021 By Mairav Zonszein, Crisis Group Senior Analyst, Israel/Palestine In Israel, Change Coalition Ousts Netanyahu, But Little Change Expected A new Israeli government is set to replace long-serving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. As Crisis Group expert Mairav Zonszein explains, however, not much but antipathy for the ex-premier holds the prospective cabinet together. It may well struggle to survive. How did the Change coalition come (Labour and Meretz) and even a conservative about and what does it look like? Islamist party, the United Arab List. Barring last-minute twists, a new Israeli gov- Under the coalition agreement, ultra- ernment will be sworn in on 13 June. The new nationalist Naftali Bennett of Yamina, who sup- cabinet, a tenuous coalition known as Change, ports the annexation of Palestinian territories, will take the helm after twelve years with will serve as prime minister for two years, with Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister and Lapid as foreign minister. After Bennett’s term four elections in two years that ended with no expires, and assuming that the coalition lasts clear winner. The last election, held in March, that long, Lapid will become premier. The fact likewise produced no obvious victor, leaving that Bennett will serve as prime minister first Netanyahu to try forming yet another govern- despite Yamina getting just seven out of 120 ing coalition of his own. But he failed to gather Knesset seats (around 6 per cent of the vote), the necessary 61 Knesset members within the compared with Yesh Atid’s seventeen seats, is prescribed 28-day window, and so President testament to how far right the Israeli body poli- Reuven Rivlin charged centrist Yair Lapid, tic has moved that centrist and left party leaders head of Yesh Atid, the second largest party after were willing to make that sacrifice. It also shows Netanyahu’s Likud, with the job. On 2 June, how much Netanyahu has shaped the positions just an hour before the deadline, and follow- even of his political opponents. Such a coalition ing an eleven-day war with Hamas in Gaza that could only arise in the first place because three froze coalition negotiations, Lapid brokered a of its leaders – Bennett, Gideon Sa’ar and Avig- power-sharing agreement among eight parties dor Lieberman – are right-wing politicians who ranging from the religious nationalist hard right have defected from Netanyahu’s camp over the (Yamina) to the secular right (Yisrael Beiteinu years. Another, Defence Minister Benny Gantz and New Hope) and centre (Yesh Atid and Blue from the soft-right Blue and White, was left and White), what remains of the Zionist left holding his own worthless rotation agreement This publication is part of a joint initiative between the International Crisis Group and the United States/ Middle East Project (USMEP) to help resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP · 11 JUNE 2021 2 with the outgoing prime minister as he came to In any case, while the inclusion of left Zion- realise that Netanyahu would never honour it. ist and Palestinian parties is significant, it does The coalition labels itself Change. Its two not mean that these forces will be able to sway main features are the absence of Netanyahu and the direction of Israeli governance. The right its relative ideological diversity. For the first remains clearly in the ascendant. time in over twenty years, Meretz, an anti-occu- Since the coalition negotiations began, pation leftist party, is part of the government; those on the right seeking an alternative to for only the second time in Israeli history, a Netanyahu have dictated the new govern- Palestinian Arab – Meretz’s Issawi Frej – will ment’s terms, since without the right it could be a minister. (He has the regional cooperation not exist. Israel’s left wing, even those elements portfolio.) Labour, which dominated Israeli of it closer to the centre, has become so weak politics until the mid-1970s and remained that it was almost certain to agree to serve in a strong through the 1990s, is also in the govern- government – even one in which its foe Bennett ment. In its present emaciated state, the party is prime minister – if invited. To join, Labour was formerly a partner for Netanyahu, but of and Meretz had to make significant conces- late it has adopted a more liberal and resolutely sions, reflected in the distribution of ministerial anti-Netanyahu tone under the new leadership portfolios: most of the critical ministries, those of Merav Michaeli. If Change does not collapse defined as “ideological” – interior, finance, at the eleventh hour, it will also be the first time justice and education – have gone to members in fourteen years that a government is formed of the right, while defence will remain under without Likud or ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties Gantz, who led several Gaza operations under like Shas, the traditional standard bearers of Netanyahu. the right. Netanyahu has repeatedly accused Bennett The new government also marks the first of putting together a left-wing government that time a Palestinian Arab party – the United Arab will endanger Israeli security; in turn, Bennett List – has signed on as part of a governing coa- has repeatedly said that his government will lition. Arab parties have provided only outside be even more right-wing than its predecessor. support in the past. The List’s inclusion, while Spin aside, a Bennett-Lapid government will be historic, is a double-edged sword. The presence deferential to its hard right and in effect have of a non-Zionist party representing Palestin- a majority-right “security cabinet” in charge of ian citizens could be a stepping stone toward major decisions. It is hard to see either Lapid or more representative government in Israel. But Gantz providing an ideological counterbalance, it is noteworthy that when a non-Zionist party as neither has shown strong political vision and finally joined a government, the one that did so both have served under Netanyahu in the past. broke from the unified Joint List of four parties Netanyahu’s apparent new gambit, acting from representing the Palestinian Arab population. the opposition, is to play on tensions within It also did it without mentioning key issues that the coalition in an attempt to bring down the matter to Palestinian citizens of Israel, namely government by pushing Bennett to alienate ending Israel’s siege on Gaza and the over- either his coalition allies or members of his own all occupation of Palestinian territories. The faction, who see him selling them out. image of Bennett, Lapid and the List’s leader Mansour Abbas signing an agreement is laden Who are Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid? with symbolism. But only time will tell whether Naftali Bennett, 49, is the self-declared leader the List’s inclusion will herald a new politics of Israel’s national religious movement. The son addressing Palestinian aspirations or instead of Jewish immigrants to Israel from Califor- help legitimise a hard-right annexationist as nia, Bennett is a former army commando and prime minister. former head of the Yesha Council (the main political body representing Jewish settlers in INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP · 11 JUNE 2021 3 occupied territory), where he led the campaign He has advocated for Israel’s unilateral annexa- against the settlement freeze that President tion of 60 per cent of the West Bank, namely the Barack Obama called for in 2010. Yet he does parts that the 1993 Oslo accords designate as not live in a settlement like some of his col- Area C, which have remained under full Israeli leagues in the coalition. A successful hi-tech military control pending the – highly unlikely entrepreneur, Bennett has seemingly preferred – fulfilment of those agreements. Bennett has “making money to settling hilltops”. Nonethe- also called for increased Jewish control over less, he is poised to become Israel’s first kippa- the Holy Esplanade (Temple Mount/Haram al- wearing, observant prime minister. Bennett Sharif) in Jerusalem. When it comes to flash- served as chief of staff for Netanyahu in 2006- points of conflict in East Jerusalem, like Sheikh 2008. He first entered politics as part of Likud Jarrah and Silwan, Bennett is not expected to in 2007 but quickly broke away. In 2013, he calm tensions. Dvir Kahana, one person Ben- won twelve Knesset seats as head of the reli- nett is considering as director general of his gious, pro-settlement Jewish Home Party, but office, has held senior positions with Elad, a failed to cross the threshold in the April 2019 right-wing settler organisation dedicated to set- election. He served as minister of economy and tling Jews in occupied East Jerusalem. religious services in 2013-2015, as education On relations with hostile neighbours, Ben- minister in 2015-2019 and as defence minister nett’s position can be summed up by a Tal- in 2019-2020. mudic verse that appears in his party platform: Bennett is a territorial maximalist. He “If someone comes to kill you, rise up and kill categorically opposes a two-state solution and him first”. nI October 2018, Bennett stated that the formation of a Palestinian state. In 2013, he if he were defence minister, he would institute told The New Yorker: “I will do everything in a shoot-to-kill policy directed at Palestin- my power to make sure they never get a state”. ians attempting to walk across the boundary KNESSET POLITICAL PARTIES & DISTRIBUTION OF SEATS Parties in New Coalition Parties in Opposition Yesh Atid 17 30 Likud Yamina 6 6 Religious Zionists Blue and White 8 7 United Torah Judaism New Hope 6 9 Shas Israel Beiteinu 7 6 Joint List Meretz 6 1 Defector from Yamina Labor 7 United Arab List 4 61 120 59 INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP · 11 JUNE 2021 4 between Israel and Gaza.
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