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Home , Issawi Frej, Secular Right, Yamina, Yesh Atid, Yisrael Beiteinu

JOINT PUBLICATION 11 JUNE 2021

By Mairav Zonszein, Crisis Group Senior Analyst, /Palestine

In Israel, Change Coalition Ousts Netanyahu, But Little Change Expected

A new Israeli government is set to replace long-serving Prime Minister . As Crisis Group expert Mairav Zonszein explains, however, not much but antipathy for the ex-premier holds the prospective cabinet together. It may well struggle to survive.

How did the Change coalition come (Labour and ) and even a conservative about and what does it look like? Islamist party, the . Barring last-minute twists, a new Israeli gov- Under the coalition agreement, ultra- ernment will be sworn in on 13 June. The new nationalist of , who sup- cabinet, a tenuous coalition known as Change, ports the annexation of Palestinian territories, will take the helm after twelve years with will serve as prime minister for two years, with Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister and Lapid as foreign minister. After Bennett’s term four elections in two years that ended with no expires, and assuming that the coalition lasts clear winner. The last election, held in March, that long, Lapid will become premier. The fact likewise produced no obvious victor, leaving that Bennett will serve as prime minister first Netanyahu to try forming yet another govern- despite Yamina getting just seven out of 120 ing coalition of his own. But he failed to gather seats (around 6 per cent of the vote), the necessary 61 Knesset members within the compared with Yesh ’s seventeen seats, is prescribed 28-day window, and so President testament to how far right the Israeli body poli- Reuven Rivlin charged centrist , tic has moved that centrist and left party leaders head of , the second largest party after were willing to make that sacrifice. It also shows Netanyahu’s , with the job. On 2 June, how much Netanyahu has shaped the positions just an hour before the deadline, and follow- even of his political opponents. Such a coalition ing an eleven-day war with in Gaza that could only arise in the first place because three froze coalition negotiations, Lapid brokered a of its leaders – Bennett, Gideon Sa’ar and Avig- power-sharing agreement among eight parties Lieberman – are right-wing politicians who ranging from the religious nationalist hard right have defected from Netanyahu’s camp over the (Yamina) to the ( years. Another, Defence Minister and ) and centre (Yesh Atid and Blue from the soft-right Blue and White, was left and White), what remains of the Zionist left holding his own worthless rotation agreement

This publication is part of a joint initiative between the International Crisis Group and the United States/ Middle East Project (USMEP) to help resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP · 11 JUNE 2021 2

with the outgoing prime minister as he came to In any case, while the inclusion of left Zion- realise that Netanyahu would never honour it. ist and Palestinian parties is significant, it does The coalition labels itself Change. Its two not mean that these forces will be able to sway main features are the absence of Netanyahu and the direction of Israeli governance. The right its relative ideological diversity. For the first remains clearly in the ascendant. time in over twenty years, Meretz, an anti-occu- Since the coalition negotiations began, pation leftist party, is part of the government; those on the right seeking an alternative to for only the second time in Israeli history, a Netanyahu have dictated the new govern- Palestinian Arab – Meretz’s – will ment’s terms, since without the right it could be a minister. (He has the regional cooperation not exist. Israel’s left wing, even those elements portfolio.) Labour, which dominated Israeli of it closer to the centre, has become so weak politics until the mid-1970s and remained that it was almost certain to agree to serve in a strong through the 1990s, is also in the govern- government – even one in which its foe Bennett ment. In its present emaciated state, the party is prime minister – if invited. To join, Labour was formerly a partner for Netanyahu, but of and Meretz had to make significant conces- late it has adopted a more liberal and resolutely sions, reflected in the distribution of ministerial anti-Netanyahu tone under the new leadership portfolios: most of the critical ministries, those of . If Change does not collapse defined as “ideological” – interior, finance, at the eleventh hour, it will also be the first time justice and education – have gone to members in fourteen years that a government is formed of the right, while defence will remain under without Likud or ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties Gantz, who led several Gaza operations under like , the traditional standard bearers of Netanyahu. the right. Netanyahu has repeatedly accused Bennett The new government also marks the first of putting together a left-wing government that time a Palestinian Arab party – the United Arab will endanger Israeli security; in turn, Bennett List – has signed on as part of a governing coa- has repeatedly said that his government will lition. Arab parties have provided only outside be even more right-wing than its predecessor. support in the past. The List’s inclusion, while Spin aside, a Bennett-Lapid government will be historic, is a double-edged sword. The presence deferential to its hard right and in effect have of a non-Zionist party representing Palestin- a majority-right “security cabinet” in charge of ian citizens could be a stepping stone toward major decisions. It is hard to see either Lapid or more representative government in Israel. But Gantz providing an ideological counterbalance, it is noteworthy that when a non-Zionist party as neither has shown strong political vision and finally joined a government, the one that did so both have served under Netanyahu in the past. broke from the unified of four parties Netanyahu’s apparent new gambit, acting from representing the Palestinian Arab population. the opposition, is to play on tensions within It also did it without mentioning key issues that the coalition in an attempt to bring down the matter to Palestinian citizens of Israel, namely government by pushing Bennett to alienate ending Israel’s siege on Gaza and the over- either his coalition allies or members of his own all occupation of Palestinian territories. The faction, who see him selling them out. image of Bennett, Lapid and the List’s Mansour Abbas signing an agreement is laden Who are Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid? with symbolism. But only time will tell whether Naftali Bennett, 49, is the self-declared leader the List’s inclusion will herald a new ’s national religious movement. The son addressing Palestinian aspirations or instead of Jewish immigrants to Israel from Califor- help legitimise a hard-right annexationist as nia, Bennett is a former army commando and prime minister. former head of the Yesha Council (the main political body representing Jewish settlers in INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP · 11 JUNE 2021 3

occupied territory), where he led the campaign He has advocated for Israel’s unilateral annexa- against the settlement freeze that President tion of 60 per cent of the , namely the Barack Obama called for in 2010. Yet he does parts that the 1993 Oslo accords designate as not live in a settlement like some of his col- Area C, which have remained under full Israeli leagues in the coalition. A successful hi-tech military control pending the – highly unlikely entrepreneur, Bennett has seemingly preferred – fulfilment of those agreements. Bennett has “making money to settling hilltops”. Nonethe- also called for increased Jewish control over less, he is poised to become Israel’s first kippa- the Holy Esplanade (Temple Mount/Haram al- wearing, observant prime minister. Bennett Sharif) in . When it comes to flash- served as chief of staff for Netanyahu in 2006- points of conflict in , like Sheikh 2008. He first entered politics as part of Likud Jarrah and Silwan, Bennett is not expected to in 2007 but quickly broke away. In 2013, he calm tensions. Dvir Kahana, one person Ben- won twelve Knesset seats as head of the reli- nett is considering as director general of his gious, pro-settlement Jewish Home Party, but office, has held senior positions with Elad, a failed to cross the threshold in the April 2019 right-wing settler organisation dedicated to set- election. He served as minister of economy and tling in occupied East Jerusalem. religious services in 2013-2015, as education On relations with hostile neighbours, Ben- minister in 2015-2019 and as defence minister nett’s position can be summed up by a Tal- in 2019-2020. mudic verse that appears in his party platform: Bennett is a territorial maximalist. He “If someone comes to kill you, rise up and kill categorically opposes a two-state solution and him first”. nI October 2018, Bennett stated that the formation of a Palestinian state. In 2013, he if he were defence minister, he would institute told The New Yorker: “I will do everything in a shoot-to-kill policy directed at Palestin- my power to make sure they never get a state”. ians attempting to walk across the boundary

KNESSET POLITICAL PARTIES & DISTRIBUTION OF SEATS

Parties in New Coalition Parties in Opposition Yesh Atid 17 30 Likud Yamina 6 6 Religious Zionists Blue and White 8 7 United New Hope 6 9 Shas Israel Beiteinu 7 6 Joint List Meretz 6 1 Defector from Yamina Labor 7 United Arab List 4

61 120 59 INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP · 11 JUNE 2021 4

between Israel and Gaza. He has proposed that difficult for the Change coalition to do much Israel should strike Tehran in response to any else. Its main goal is to prove that the country attack in Israel, whatever its origin, that seems can move on from Netanyahu, but Netanyahu in any way related to Iran. He has also called for is likely to continue doing everything in his turning Syria into “Iran’s Vietnam”. power to undermine the new coalition, assum- Yair Lapid, 57, is a former TV host, author ing that he remains head of the opposition. He and journalist. He first came into politics in has already started pursuing a scorched-earth 2012, when he formed Yesh Atid (There is a approach, castigating his opponents as danger- Future) following demonstrations against the ous to Israel’s security in an attempt to ignite a high cost of living. Lapid campaigned on redis- base already up in arms about the new coali- tribution of state funds away from subsidies tion, to the point that the (General for settlements and ultra-Orthodox Jews. He Security Service) warned that his online incite- served a short stint as finance minister in the ment could lead to physical harm. The Shin Bet Netanyahu government in 2013. has assigned security details to several coalition A self-defined liberal and centrist, Lapid members, including Bennett and some of his has often shifted his positions when politically Yamina colleagues, due to threats against them convenient, at times putting himself squarely in and their families. the right-wing camp with appeals to soft-right The coalition will find it challenging to make voters. For example, he does not call for an end major decisions, as the underlying agreement to Israeli occupation, and he has railed against requires consensus for every bill submitted to Israeli anti-occupation and human rights the Knesset. Despite its name, Lapid and Ben- groups like B’tselem and Breaking the Silence. nett have indicated that the Change coalition His Yesh Atid party officially backs a two-state will not consider any policy shift on Israeli- solution but has never put forth a program for Palestinian issues. It will focus instead on areas how to achieve one, and in any case his opposi- on which agreement is possible, such as the tion to dividing Jerusalem renders his support economy, infrastructure and basic government for a two-state solution nominal. operations, which have been stuck as a result of At the same time, Lapid has sharpened his the political deadlock of the last two years. political positioning since breaking his alliance Considering that stalemate, the very act of with Gantz after the latter entered a coalition replacing Netanyahu is seismic. As someone with Netanyahu in March 2020. In doing so, who has lost much of the public’s trust, made Gantz reneged on his main campaign promise numerous political enemies and refused to step to replace the long-serving prime minister. down after being indicted on several corruption Lapid stood his ground and refused to cooper- charges, Netanyahu is an embattled figure. His ate with Netanyahu. In a significant shift, Lapid, obsession with promoting his own interests led who once mocked all Palestinian Arab Knesset him to make ministerial appointments from an members as “Zoabis”, a reference to former ever-narrowing circle based heavily on loyalty Knesset member Hanin Zoabi of the Balad over merit, while he tried to impose his will on Party, who angered her Zionist colleagues with the police, the courts and the media. Replac- her strong critiques of state policy, announced ing Netanyahu holds out the possibility that in March that he would seek to work with Pales- the new government will offer, at least at first, tinian Arab parties in forming a government. a degree of professionalism and perhaps even a mild counterweight to the hard-right, divisive What is the biggest challenge this politics of the Netanyahu era. cabinet is likely to face? But Netanyahu’s hardline policies, including Survival. This coalition is extremely fragile. The consolidating Jewish-Israeli sovereignty in the glue keeping it together is determination to oust occupied territories and employing excessive Netanyahu. Now that he is out, it will be very force against Palestinians, are uncontroversial INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP · 11 JUNE 2021 5

in Israel. They have majority support among will go through, because Bennett and Sa’ar want the Jewish public and in the Knesset. On that to maintain their relations with the ultra-Ortho- front, little will change. dox – a core right-wing base – in service of their The coalition’s likely first task will be to pass long-term political ambitions. The ultra-Ortho- a budget, which no cabinet has done since 2019. dox have been unrelenting and even incendiary The new government may also try to pass elec- in their attacks on the new coalition, and may toral reforms including term limits for political prove to be a disruptive street presence oppos- leaders, which could prevent Netanyahu from ing the incoming government. running for office again. But the fate of such The United Arab List’s Abbas says the coali- draft legislation – different versions of the bill tion agreement includes a pledge to spend bil- are floating around – is unclear. Should Netan- lions of shekels in state funding for infrastruc- yahu remain Likud leader, he will have a base ture and crime fighting in Palestinian towns in the Knesset from which to exploit divisions in Israel; to extend state recognition to some within the coalition in order to stage a come- Bedouin villages; and to discuss an amendment back. But if his party colleagues get rid of him, to the Kaminitz Law, which allows for demo- the Knesset’s right-wing majority, then under a lition of Palestinian homes lacking building new Likud leader, would be in a strong posi- permits when Palestinian citizens are unable to tion to put together its own governing coalition get such permits due to discriminatory zon- without going to still another general election. ing practices. Abbas will also serve as chair of The coalition agreement includes a clause the Knesset Interior Committee, which over- about legislation regarding the Supreme Court’s sees government policy on internal security, powers, a flagship right-wing issue of late. The planning and building – all matters of utmost proposed Basic Law on Legislation would deter- concern to Palestinian citizens. mine whether the Court has the authority to strike down Basic Laws, and whether a Knesset How might this coalition affect majority could overrule it if it did so, potentially Israeli-Palestinian dynamics? stripping the Supreme Court of its ability to This coalition is likely to maintain the status soften any particularly egregious policy. Both quo when it comes to the Palestinian ques- Bennett and Sa’ar, leader of the secular right tion. But as the April-May violence throughout New Hope, are committed to reforms that shift Israel-Palestine showed, there is no status quo power away from the judicial branch. In that regarding the Palestinians, only deepening de respect, the new government’s right-wing mem- facto annexation and continued systematic bers have the same agenda as Netanyahu, but denial of basic rights and freedoms – a situation one driven exclusively by ideology rather than that is increasingly proving volatile. Bennett concerns over lawsuits pending against them is committed to a ideology, by personally. which Israel should cede no square inch of On matters of religion and state, Lieber- land to the Palestinians. But he has gone into man’s Yisrael Beiteinu has a list of secular a government with partners whom the hard demands for the new government to support right considers “leftists”, so critics may question that include drafting Orthodox Jews who his devotion to that project. Bennett has also study in yeshivas into the military (at present, reaffirmed that he will not flinch from resuming religious students are exempt from service), strikes upon Gaza if he deems it necessary. as well as a bill allowing civil unions, ending There is a broadly held view among domes- the monopoly on certification of kosher food tic commentators, and even some coalition and establishments, and promoting the study members, that this government won’t be able to of core curricula in ultra-Orthodox Jewish focus on anything other than domestic issues, schools. It is unclear if any of these measures and will have to steer clear of the controversial INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP · 11 JUNE 2021 6

Palestinian question. This notion cannot What about the delicate interplay survive the test of reality. In its own way, the between Israel and the U.S.? occupation is also a domestic issue. Things Tension is likely to emerge within the govern- will happen: demolition and dispossession ment over relations with the U.S., which has orders will come up to be carried out (includ- long been Israel’s closest ally and its main pro- ing in Sheikh Jarrah and elsewhere in East tector from international pressure regarding the Jerusalem), as will new settlement construction Palestinian question. Some of its members want and infrastructure projects. There will be new to continue Netanyahu’s overt partisanship restrictions on Palestinian movements, as well – favouring Republican politicians over Demo- as more arrests and military raids. The major crats – while others, like Lapid and Gantz, wish escalation in violence in April-May, which tra- to get past this tactic and work more closely versed the different domains of Israeli control with the Biden administration. Will Bennett, over Palestinians, is still at the front of many egged on by the hard right, take a hard line with minds. Netanyahu has also intentionally placed the White House? He very well might. From the some landmines waiting to explode, such as U.S. side, many within the traditional pro-Israel toughening conditions under which relief aid lobby, the Democratic Party’s more conserva- and reconstruction funds will be allowed to tive wing and the Biden administration itself enter Gaza. Pressure to protect the right flank have an interest in resetting the U.S.-Israel will likely drive policy. relationship away from the Netanyahu era. Bennett and Lapid, like Netanyahu, are both This would involve depicting the installation committed to ensuring deterrence through of this Netanyahu-less government as turning force vis-à-vis Hamas in Gaza and Hizbollah a new page and thus try to drown out voices in Lebanon, and offered no alternative vision. of criticism toward Israel among left-leaning The consensus military approach of conducting Democrats. It could also mean trying to bypass “wars between wars” (targeted campaigns to Bennett and communicate primarily with pre-empt perceived threats) will likely endure. Foreign Minister Lapid and Defence Minister The new government may be at greater risk of Gantz, who can give a moderate face to what miscalculation as Bennett and his top advisers will continue to be hardline and illegal Israeli find their feet amid dynamics of internal com- policies vis-à-vis the Palestinians. petition. External pressure, particularly from A U.S.-Israel reset will also be severely Hizbollah, could pose a serious test for this new tested as the Biden administration continues and untried leadership. trying to restore the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. The government is very likely to seek to From his new perch leading the opposition, improve relations with Jordan, which became Netanyahu may use the Iran issue as a main severely strained under Netanyahu. It may try line of attack, homing in on the new leaders’ to reintegrate Jordan into management of the inexperience. The government’s ability to sur- Palestinian file, especially concerning the Holy vive is therefore far from guaranteed. Esplanade.

Mairav Zonszein joined the International Crisis Group in January 2021 as Senior Analyst on Israel/Palestine. She is responsible for covering Israeli domestic politics, relations with the Palestinians, and regional conflict settings and policies.