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Countering Violent Extremism Approved for Public Release TOPICAL STRATEGIC MULTI-LAYER ASSESSMENT AND AIR FORCE RESEARCH LABORATORY MULTI-DISCIPLINARY WHITE PAPER IN SUPPORT OF COUNTER-TERRORISM AND COUNTER-WMD Countering Violent Extremism Scientific Methods & Strategies September 2011 The views expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the organizations with which they are associated. Editorial Board: Laurie Fenstermacher (Air Force Research Laboratory) Todd Leventhal (United States Department of State) Contributing Authors: Ziad Alahdad, Latefa Belarouci, Cheryl Benard, Curt Braddock, William Casebeer, Steve Corman, Paul Davis, Karl DeRouen, Diane DiEuliis, Evelyn Early, Mehreen Farooq, Dipak Gupta, Tawfik Hamid, John Horgan, Qamar-ul Huda, Eric Larson, Anthony Lemieux, Hedieh Mirahmadi, Robert Nill, Paulina Pospieszna, Tom Rieger, Marc Sageman, John “Jack” Shanahan, Anne Speckhard, Troy Thomas, Lorenzo Vidino Laurie Fenstermacher Air Force Research Laboratory [email protected] Integration Editor: Sarah Canna Sarah Canna NSI, Inc. NSI, Inc. [email protected] [email protected] Countering Violent Extremism Approved for Public Release The views expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the organizations with which they are associated. Countering Violent Extremism Approved for Public Release CONTENTS Foreword (Brig. Gen. John N.T. “Jack” Shanahan) ......................................................................................................... 1 Preface (Diane DiEuiliis) ................................................................................................................................................ 3 Executive Summary (Laurie Fenstermacher) ................................................................................................................... 4 Section 1: Current Insights into Violent Extremism ...................................................................................................... 24 Not All Radicals are the Same: Implications for Counter-Radicalization Strategy (Tom Rieger) ................................. 24 Countering Extremist Violence (Marc Sageman) ....................................................................................................... 29 Understanding the Role of Narrative in Extremist Strategic Communication (Steven R. Corman) ............................. 36 Tracking the Spread of Violent Extremism (Dipak Gupta) ....................................................................................... 44 Violent Extremism in Algeria: A Quest for Identity from Colonization to Globalization (Latefa Belarouci) .............. 56 Section 2: Prevention of Violent Extremism ................................................................................................................. 65 Forecasting Terrorism, Predicting its Nature, and Driving Innovative Responses: “At-Risk Group Identity” as a Pivotal Concept for Understanding Political Violence (William D. Casebeer) ............................................................ 65 A Strategic Plan to Defeat Radical Islam (Tawfik Hamid) ......................................................................................... 72 Prevention of Violent Extremism: “What Are The People Saying?” (Alexis Everington) ........................................... 78 Countering Violent Extremism: Shifting the Emphasis towards the Development Paradigm (Ziad Alahdad) ............ 84 Partnering with Muslim Communities to Counter Radicalization (Hedieh Mirahmadi & Mehreen Farooq) ............... 90 The Role of Non-Violent Islamists in Radicalization and Counter-Radicalization: The European Debate (Lorenzo Vidino) ................................................................................................................................................................... 101 Section 3: Delegitimizing/Minimizing Popular Support for Violent Extremism........................................................... 105 The Mechanics of De-Legitimization (Cheryl Benard) ............................................................................................ 106 Exploiting Al-Qa’ida’s Vulnerabilities for Delegitimization (Eric Larson) ................................................................ 111 Arab Satellite Television and Popular Culture (Evelyn A. Early) ............................................................................. 124 The Role and Impact of Music in Promoting (and Countering) Violent Extremism (Anthony Lemieux & Robert Nill) ............................................................................................................................................................................... 143 Section 4: Pursue and Protect/Risk Management/Deradicalization ............................................................................. 153 Using Citizen Messengers to Counteract Radicalism (Qamar-ul Huda) .................................................................... 153 Countering Violent Extremism Approved for Public Release Evaluating the Effectiveness of De-Radicalization Programs: Towards A Scientific Approach to Terrorism Risk Reduction (John Horgan & Kurt Braddock) ........................................................................................................... 158 Battling the “University of Jihad:” An Evidence Based Ideological Program to Counter Militant Jihadi Groups Active on the Internet (Anne Speckhard) ........................................................................................................................... 164 Mediation and Civil Wars Involving Terrorism (Karl DeRouen & Paulina Pospieszna) ........................................... 175 Deterrence, Influence, and Violent Extremist Organizations (Paul Davis)............................................................... 185 Coercing Violent Non-State Actors (Troy Thomas) ................................................................................................ 193 Countering Violent Extremism Approved for Public Release FOREWORD (BRIG. GEN. JOHN N.T. “JACK” SHANAHAN) Brig. Gen. John N.T. "Jack" Shanahan Deputy Director for Global Operations Operations Directorate, Joint Staff While the dust has not settled on the Arab Spring (and Summer), the events have already yielded several insights. First, there are significantly high levels of perceived grievance associated with poor governance (e.g., lack of rule of law, justice, and provision of services) in the Middle East. Second, there is a direct relationship between the actions of the government and the actions of a social movement; that is, the government can fan the flames and provoke increasing violence or douse them and quell it. Clearly, ideology is not the sole factor stoking dissent in the Middle East. In fact, in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood—an Islamist group who has been accused of violence in the past—was ostensibly on the sidelines of the largely grassroots movement to remove President Mubarak. Multi-dimensional challenges call for multi-dimensional responses to mitigate the root causes of violent extremism. The causes of violent extremism are complex and multidimensional, and the strategies to deal with them need to be as well. Any effort to counter violent extremism will require a “comprehensive approach” involving participation from the “whole of government” including defense, state, and aid departments and agencies, as well as the support of others including non-government organizations. That is because strategies are needed to address both longer term issues (development, amelioration of the source of socio-economic grievances, prevention of increased radicalization) as well as shorter term issues (e.g., security, dealing with instigators and perpetrators of violence, etc.). These strategies must be implemented through smart partnerships at various levels from national down to the individual. In many cases, it is efficacious to enlist the support of communities and families to counter violent extremism. This is a lesson learned by both law enforcement and development agencies long ago: that often, family support and pressure can prevent someone from engaging in violence. Furthermore, the buy-in and ownership of communities into development projects is directly related to their long-term success. The comprehensive approach requires a strategic view that thinks in terms of government and societal participation to reduce violent extremism. The place to start when developing strategies for countering violent extremism is to consider how to define achievable goals. For example, achieving the deradicalization of individuals or even groups is extraordinarily difficult. Many of the notable examples of deradicalization (change in violent extremist beliefs) have been, in fact, examples of disengagement (stopping the violent behavior). Disengagement is a more achievable goal, accomplished by a variety of means. Likewise, classic deterrence may not be effective, but other influence strategies can affect a change in violent behavior. Our messaging must be consistent and credible, appropriately tailored for the audience (gender, age, motivations, etc.), and based on an understanding of the narrative and ideological lenses through which it will be interpreted. And the adage, “first do no harm,” bears repeating—it is essential to ensure that strategies do not create more problems than they solve. For
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