Ethnonationalist Triads: Assessing the Influence of Kin Groups on Civil Wars
ETHNONATIONALIST TRIADS Assessing the Influence of Kin Groups on Civil Wars By LARS-ERIK CEDERMAN, LUC GIRARDIN, and KRISTIAN SKREDE GLEDITSCH* ATIONALISM has the potential to transgress and transform Nstate borders. Irredentism represents the most radical form of border transformation, but border-transgressing effects, such as exter- nal support by kin groups short of major military interventions, may also make ethnonationalist civil wars more likely. Given the highly asymmetric nature of such conflicts, which by definition feature non- state groups challenging well-armed governments, it can be expected that the former will seek support from related groups in neighboring countries. Even a quick look at the ethnopolitical map reveals that there are plenty of structural opportunities for such transborder influences. Whereas relatively few cases of outright irredentism have occurred, ethnonationalist civil wars have often featured external support from kin groups across state borders.1 Examples include Kurdish transborder cooperation against hostile state governments such as Turkey and Iraq.2 Transborder nationalism can also be blamed for having contributed to ethnic conflict in Croatia, Bosnia, Kosovo, and other parts of the for- mer Yugoslavia.3 Although the Russian “near abroad” that emerged in the post–cold war period has generally been more peaceful than ex- * We thank Paul Diehl, Harvey Starr, Jeremy Weinstein, Andreas Wimmer, participants at semi- nars at the University of Nottingham and Trinity College Dublin, as well as three anonymous review- ers and the editors for helpful comments and suggestions. This research was supported by grants from the European Science Foundation (06ECRPFP004), the Research Council of Norway (180441/V10), the Swiss National Science Foundation (105511-116795/1), and the U.K.
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