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Weighing US Troop Withdrawal from Iraq Perspective EXPERT INSIGHTS ON A TIMELY POLICY ISSUE BEN CONNABLE, JAMES DOBBINS, HOWARD J. SHATZ, RAPHAEL S. COHEN, BECCA WASSER WEIGHING U.S. TROOP WITHDRAWAL FROM IRAQ STRATEGIC RISKS AND RECOMMENDATIONS May 2020 C O R P O R A T I O N Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................ 1 Weighing U.S. Troop Withdrawal from Iraq .................................................... 2 Key Analytic Drivers ................................................................................... 2 Past and Current U.S. Strategy on Iraq ..................................................... 3 Assessing Prospective Harms to U.S. Strategic Interests in Iraq ............. 3 Impact on the Counter–Islamic State Campaign ....................................... 8 Impact on the Efforts to Counter Iranian Malign Influence .....................11 Impacts on Competition with Russia and China .....................................13 Impacts on U.S. Economic Interests and Iraqi Economic Stability .........15 Impacts on U.S. Regional Force Posture and Access ............................17 Comparative Analysis: Impacts Across the Four Withdrawal Options....19 Overall Recommendation: Commit to a Small Enduring Advisory Presence ..................................................................................................20 Specific Recommendations .....................................................................22 Expect Some Modest, Temporary Reversals ..........................................24 Notes .............................................................................................................25 References ....................................................................................................30 The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. 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Andrew Garcia Executive Summary Assessment In this Perspective, we assess the possible strategic risks We examined the likely consequences of American disen- associated with U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq and gagement from Iraq for stated U.S. strategies and policy recommend policies to help the United States meet its objectives as set out in published, official U.S. government strategic objectives in the Middle East. As of early 2020, documents as of early 2020. Table S.1 summarizes our con- the United States has several thousand military personnel clusions from the analytic comparison of five strategic U.S. in Iraq providing direct combat assistance to Iraqi secu- interests and four prospective withdrawal options, ranging rity services and to U.S. forces in eastern Syria. Following from no withdrawal to full disengagement. the targeted killing of Iranian Major General Qassim Suleimani in January 2020, the Iraqi parliament passed a Recommendations nonbinding measure calling for the ejection of foreign— and primarily U.S.—military forces from Iraq. This vote, We make four policy recommendations based on this and the concurrent rise in tensions with Iran, reignited analysis: the debate over the purpose of the U.S. military mission 1. Support: Continue to actively support the develop- in Iraq. Why is the United States engaged in Iraq? What ment of stability and democracy in Iraq. is the purpose of sustaining a military footprint there? 2. Stay: Select optimal risk-benefit balance between no What would happen if the Iraqi government expelled U.S. withdrawal and limited withdrawal. military forces, or if they were willingly withdrawn? If the 3. Endure: Maintain an enduring advisory mission to U.S. military remains in Iraq, what should constitute this help develop Iraq’s security forces. presence? 4. Improve: Help the Iraqi military improve civil-military relations over time. TABLE S.1 Assessing Probable Harms to U.S. Interests Associated with Military Withdrawal from Iraq No Withdrawal Limited Withdrawal Full Withdrawal Disengagement (early 2020 force levels (combat assistance (combat assistance + (all military forces + Strategic Interest sustained) forces only) advisory teams) financing + materiel) Countering the Islamic State Very Low High Very High Very High Countering Iran Very Low Moderate High Very High Competing with China and Russia Very Low Low Moderate Moderate Economic prosperity and stability Very Low Very Low Moderate High Regional military force posture Very Low Very Low Moderate Moderate 1 Weighing U.S. Troop Withdrawal to keep energy markets stable and trade routes secure, and from Iraq to counter Iranian malign influence.3 These requirements reinforce the consistent language in U.S. strategic docu- In this Perspective, we assess the possible strategic risks ments regarding Iraq and the broader Middle East since at associated with a withdrawal of U.S. military forces from least 2005.4 Iraq and, building from this assessment, recommend a set of policies and actions to help the United States meet its strategic objectives in the Middle East. Our analysis and Key Analytic Drivers recommendations are intended to help both policymakers Because the 2018 NDS does not resolve the debate over and the public to consider both sides of this important Iraq policy even within the defense establishment, fur- issue. ther analysis is warranted. Withdrawal might result from Strong opinions have been offered for and against a range of different circumstances and policy decisions.5 withdrawal by policymakers, policy analysts, military lead- While the impetus of withdrawal has serious practical ers, veterans, and members of the general public.1 Present implications for the United States, Iraq, and for U.S. mili- arguments generally align with those made during the tary forces, we focus our analysis on three major strategic peak 2006–2007 Iraq counterinsurgency period and during drivers: the period leading up to the 2011 withdrawal.2 The 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS) adds a new element, as 1. U.S. strategic objectives in Iraq derived from official it asserts that the United States will shift its military focus documents and statements from countering terrorism toward great-power competition 2. withdrawal options, ranging from no withdrawal to with, primarily, China and Russia. full military disengagement Some military professionals and policymakers have 3. likely harm to U.S. strategic interests for each with- read the NDS as an almost binary directive: Refocusing on drawal option. China and Russia requires a substantial withdrawal from Our assessment and recommendations are built from a the Middle East. However, the NDS also directs the U.S. review of public, official U.S. statements on strategy toward Department of Defense to help maintain favorable regional Iraq, and what we derived from those statements to be the balances in the Middle East, to deter regional adversary most common and most emphasized U.S. strategic interests aggression, to defeat and deny safe haven to terrorists, to in Iraq. prevent hostile powers from dominating the Middle East, The 2018 NDS does not resolve the debate over Iraq policy. 2 Past and Current U.S. Strategy on experts—and quite a few Iraqis—to have been a mistake, Iraq reversing improvements in the Iraqi security forces and opening the way for the Islamic State.7 One of the most oft-stated concerns about the continuing U.S. military presence in Iraq is the perceived lack of a clear regional or country-specific strategy to guide mili- Assessing Prospective Harms to tary purpose and action.6 We agree that strategic clarity on U.S. Strategic Interests in Iraq Iraq is much needed, and we find that the stated official objectives are not sufficiently linked to consistent policies Given the variability between stated strategic objectives or justifications for U.S. military operations. Since the and the practical policies on Iraq, and given the shifting 2003 U.S.-led coalition invasion of Iraq, some Iraq policies global environment, we distilled a set of five U.S. national appear to have been directly at odds with contemporaneous security interests from recent and current policy docu- strategic statements. ments to help drive our analysis. Table 2 describes the But while policy and strategy are often not well five categories of declared U.S. national security interests aligned, there are many readily available official docu- relevant to Iraq. ments describing U.S. strategic interests in Iraq. Given a few necessary changes to reflect emerging conditions, these Withdrawal Options documents are generally consistent
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