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IMPACTS to MONTANA STATE HIGHWAYS DUE to BAKKEN OIL DEVELOPMENT FHWA/MT-13-002/8219 Final Report

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IMPACTS to MONTANA STATE HIGHWAYS DUE to BAKKEN OIL DEVELOPMENT FHWA/MT-13-002/8219 Final Report IMPACTS TO MONTANA STATE HIGHWAYS DUE TO BAKKEN OIL DEVELOPMENT FHWA/MT-13-002/8219 Final Report prepared for THE STATE OF MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION in cooperation with THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION FEDERAL HIGHWAY ADMINISTRATION February 2013 prepared by Alan Dybing EunSu Lee Christopher DeHaan Nimish Dharmadhikari Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute North Dakota State University RESEARCH PROGRAMS You are free to copy, distribute, display, and perform the work; make derivative works; make commercial use of the work under the condition that you give the original author and sponsor credit. For any reuse or distribution, you must make clear to others the license terms of this work. Any of these conditions can be waived if you get permission from the sponsor. Your fair use and other rights are in no way affected by the above. Impacts to Montana State Highways Due to Bakken Oil Development Impacts to Montana State Highways Due to Bakken Oil Development Final Report February 2013 Prepared by the Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute Prepared for the MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION In cooperation with the U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION & FEDERAL HIGHWAY ADMINISTRATION Impacts to Montana State Highways Due to Bakken Oil Development TECHNICAL REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE 1. Report No. MT/FHWA-13-002/8219 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient's Catalog No. 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date February 2013 Impacts to Montana State Highways Due to Bakken Oil Development 6. Performing Organization Code 7. Author(s) 8. Performing Organization Report No. Alan Dybing, EunSu Lee, Christopher DeHaan, Nimish Dharmadhikari 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute NDSU Dept. 2880 P.O. Box 6050 11. Contract or Grant No. Fargo, ND 58108-6050 8219 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period Covered Research Programs Final Report Montana Department of Transportation May 2012-January 2013 2701 Prospect Avenue PO Box 201001 Helena MT 59620-1001 14. Sponsoring Agency Code 5401 15. Supplementary Notes Research performed in cooperation with the Montana Department of Transportation and the US Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration. This report can be found at http://www.mdt.mt.gov/research/projects/pave/oil.shtml. 16. Abstract This study developed a detailed truck traffic forecasting model with specific attention to truck movements related to oil development in the Bakken formation in eastern Montana and western North Dakota. Oil forecast scenarios as specified by MDT were analyzed to assess the differences in impacts under differing development scenarios. Locations of input sources were identified through industry websites, Departments of Transportation, and other regulatory bodies. Routes between aggregate well locations and input and output sources were estimated utilizing ESRI Network Analyst©. A series of capacity constrained optimization models were used to select the least cost set of routes for oil distribution in the region, and results were aggregated to the highway segment level. Traffic data provided by MDT was used to calibrate and validate the traffic forecasting model. Traffic forecasting results are presented in shapefile format, which allows the user to retrieve segment specific forecasts and display changes in traffic volumes over the analysis period. 17. Key Words: Freight Modeling, Oil, Network Optimization, Traffic 18. Distribution Statement Forecasting, Forecasting, Freight Transportation, Geographic Unrestricted. This document is available through the Information Systems, Oil Recovery Equipment, Traffic Distribution, National Technical Information Service, Springfield, VA Traffic Model 21161. 19. Security Classif. (of this 20. Security Classif. (of this 21. No. of Pages 22. Price report) page) 91 Unclassified Unclassified ii Impacts to Montana State Highways Due to Bakken Oil Development Disclaimer Statement This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the Montana Department of Transportation (MDT) and the United States Department of Transportation (USDOT) in the interest of information exchange. The State of Montana and the United States assume no liability for the use or misuse of its contents. The contents of this document reflect the views of the authors, who are solely responsible for the facts and accuracy of the data presented herein. The contents do not necessarily reflect the views or official policies of MDT or the USDOT. The State of Montana and the United States do not endorse products of manufacturers. This document does not constitute a standard, specification, policy or regulation. Alternative Format Statement MDT attempts to provide accommodations for any known disability that may interfere with a person participating in any service, program, or activity of the Department. Alternative accessible formats of this information will be provided upon request. For further information, call 406/444.7693, TTY 800/335.7592, or Montana Relay at 711. iii Impacts to Montana State Highways Due to Bakken Oil Development TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................................ 1 2. DEVELOP GIS PRODUCTION DATABASE ...................................................................... 2 2.1. Township as production locations .................................................................................... 2 2.2. Freshwater sites ................................................................................................................ 3 2.3. Salt water disposal (SWD) sites ....................................................................................... 6 2.4. Railroad transloading facilities ......................................................................................... 7 2.5. Pipeline transloading facilities ......................................................................................... 9 2.6. Oil towns ........................................................................................................................ 11 2.7. Sand ................................................................................................................................ 12 2.8. Gravel/scoria .................................................................................................................. 14 3. SYNTHESIZE FORECASTS OF OIL DEVELOPMENT ................................................... 15 4. DEVELOP A DETAILED GIS NETWORK OF STATE HIGHWAYS .............................. 16 4.1. Road networks ................................................................................................................ 16 4.2. Border crossings ............................................................................................................. 19 5. INTERSECTIONS AND JUNCTIONS ................................................................................ 21 5.1. Attribute settings ............................................................................................................ 21 5.1.1. Segment length........................................................................................................ 21 5.1.2. Travel speed through networks ............................................................................... 21 5.2. Sample routing verification ............................................................................................ 23 6. ESAL ESTIMATES .............................................................................................................. 28 7. ANALYSIS OF EXISTING TRAFFIC DATA .................................................................... 32 7.1. Distribution of AADT on major highways: ................................................................... 32 8. TRAFFIC MODELING ........................................................................................................ 40 9. ROUTE ASSIGNMENT/DISTRIBUTION MODEL ........................................................... 41 9.1. Route disaggregation and segment assignment .............................................................. 42 10. RESULTS .......................................................................................................................... 43 10.1. Scenario: 20 Rigs ........................................................................................................ 44 10.2. Scenario: 40 Rigs ........................................................................................................ 52 11. IMPLEMENTATION ........................................................................................................ 60 11.1. Base GIS Shapefile ..................................................................................................... 60 iv Impacts to Montana State Highways Due to Bakken Oil Development 11.2. Traffic forecast dBase files ......................................................................................... 61 11.3. Joining the traffic forecasts to the MDT shapefile, and viewing forecasts ................ 62 11.4. Utilization of Data ...................................................................................................... 62 12. CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................. 64 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................
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