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Russia in Syria fmso.leavenworth.army.mil Foreign Military Studies Office Volume 6 Issue #3 OEWATCH March 2016 FOREIGN NEWS & PERSPECTIVES OF THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT SPECIAL ESSAY: Strategic Landpower: The View from China TURKEY 24 Argentina’s Russia Ties Assessed as Macri Takes Power RUSSIA, UKRAINE 3 Russian-Turkish Tensions Peak in Syria 25 Mexican Congress Considering Increased Authorities for 40 Death of GRU Chief Spotlights GRU-FSB Rivalry, and Way 4 Mass Refugee Flow from Aleppo Expected into Turkey Military Ahead 5 Turkey and Saudi Arabia Expand Military Ties 26 Kidnapping Migrants Rampant in Tamaulipas 42 Electronic Warfare: Russia’s Next Generation, and Beyond 44 Noncommissioned Officers in the Russian Armed Forces MIDDLE EAST INDO-PACIFIC ASIA 47 Helicopter Mine Development Furthers Russian Area Denial 6 Iran: Strengthening the Basij 27 Are Returning Southeast Asian ISIS Fighters Fueling a JI Capabilities 7 Iran: Basij Recruiting for Syria Fight Resurgence? 48 The Evolution of the Russian Military Police System 8 Iran Tests New Cruise Missile 28 Local Analyst Sees Possibility that Islamic State Combatants 50 The Role of Radio-Technical Troops in the Russian Armed 9 Nile River Dam Continues to Dominate Egyptian-Ethiopian May Regroup in the Philippines Forces Relations 29 Can the New Lao People’s Revolutionary Party Leader 53 Ukrainian Politician on Russia, Syria, and the West 10 Power Struggles in Libya’s National Army Handle the Pressure? 53 Lavrov on Major World Challenges in 2016 and on Russia in 11 Russia in Syria: 4th Corps and Desert Falcons 30 Even After the Jakarta Attacks, there is Potential for More Ukraine Lone Terrorist Cells 55 Russia’s History in the Caucasus: Repetition of Same AFRICA 31 Islamic State Attack in Jakarta May Lead to Mistakes? 13 Nigeria’s Other Conflict: Violence Flares Again in Oil Rich Counterterrorism Cooperation with China 56 Ottawa Stands Firm on Support for Ukraine Niger Delta Region 57 Benefits for Russian Volunteers who Fought in Ukraine? 14 Nigeria Looks to Nollywood to Improve Civil-Military CHINA, KOREA, JAPAN 58 Rogozin’s January Visit to Serbia Relations 32 China’s Space Station Quest: Making Progress 59 Russian Military Housing-Significant Progress 15 Jihadist Attacks and Negotiating Sharia in Mali 32 PLA Marine Corps Training for All-Terrain Combat Capability 60 Formation of the 45th Air Force and Air Defense Army 16 African Countries Continue to Consider AU Intervention 33 Xi Announces Establishment of Five PLA Theater 60 China Wants to Team Up with Russia in an Arctic Expedition into Burundi Commands; “Historic Progress of the PLA in Building its 61 Beefing Up the Rescue and Salvage Support on the 18 Militancy in Senegal: Complacency or Time for Concern? Joint Operational System.” Northern Sea Route 19 Nigeria Restoring Confidence in Multi-National Joint Task 34 First Commander of the PLA Army Interviewed 62 Ruslan the Cold Warrior Force 35 Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to Change Asian 63 Still More Arctic Construction in 2016 Transport Connectivity 63 What Do You Do when the Snowmobile Runs Out of Gas? LATIN AMERICA 64 Russia Has Satellite Problems 20 New Twist in Coups — Making a Military Oil Company EUROPE 21 How Bad Can Venezuela Get? 36 Bosnian Police Receive Russian Training 22 ELN: The Other Colombian Guerrilla SPECIAL ESSAY 22 Bolivian Referendum Goes against Evo CENTRAL ASIA 65 Strategic Landpower: The View from 23 Guatemala’s Water Contamination Problem 37 Gauging Russia’s Focus on Tajikistan 23 Violence Levels in El Salvador Fuel Migration Surge in Costa 38 Remembering the Tajik Civil War in Kazakhstan China Rica 39 Small Arms in Kyrgyzstan The Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, is part of the US Army Training and Doctrine OEWATCH Command G-2’s Operational Environment Foreign News & Perspectives Enterprise and for 30 years has conducted of the Operational Environment open source research on foreign Volume 6 | Issue 3 March | 2016 perspectives of defense and security issues, emphasizing those topics that are Regional Analysts and understudied or unconsidered. Expert Contributors Operational Environment Watch provides translated selections and analysis from Turkey Karen Kaya a diverse range of foreign articles and Middle East Kevin Freese other media that our analysts and expert Michael Rubin contributors believe will give military Lucas Winter and security professionals an added Africa Robert Feldman Jason Warner dimension to their critical thinking about Jacob Zenn the Operational Environment. Latin America Geoff Demarest Brenda Fiegel Materials, outside of the original foreign press article, Kevin Freese under copyright have not been used. All articles published in the Operational Environment Watch are not provided Indo-Pacific Asia Cindy Hurst in full, and were originally published in foreign (non-US) Anthony Ortiz media. Jacob Zenn FMSO has provided some editing, format, and graphics China, Korea, Japan Cindy Hurst to these articles to conform to organizational standards. Christopher Marsh Academic conventions, source referencing, and citation Tim Thomas style are those of the author. Blaise Zandoli The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent the official policy or position of the Europe Alyssa Jackson Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the US Government. Release of this information does not Central Asia Matthew Stein imply any commitment or intent on the part of the US Government to provide any additional information on any Russia, Ukraine Chuck Bartles topic presented herein. Anna Borshchevskaya Liam Burnside The Operational Environment Watch is archived and Ray Finch available at: http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil. Les Grau Tim Thomas Contact FMSO at: [email protected] Editor-in-Chief Tom Wilhelm ON THE COVER: PLA emblem, surrounded by (clockwise from upper-right) Editors Ray Finch Chengdu J-10 fighter, PLA honor guard, and a ‘Type 98’ tank. Harry Orenstein Sources: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:China_Emblem_PLA.svg; https:// commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:J-10a_zhas.png; https://commons.wikimedia.org/ Design Editor Keith French wiki/File:Honor_guard_of_the_People%27s_Liberation_Army.jpg; https://commons. wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Type_98_tank_raised_view.jpg TURKEY Top Russian-Turkish Tensions Peak in Syria OE Watch Commentary: Russia’s involvement in Syria “It appears that Russia wants to pull Turkey into has complicated Turkey’s plans in the region. Prior to a bigger trap. This trap is to force Ankara... into a Russia’s involvement Turkey was working to establish a ground operation in Syria...” “safe-zone” along the Turkish-Syrian border to drive ISIS out of the 68-mile area west of the Euphrates River and into Aleppo Province. Turkey hoped to stop Kurdish expansion in the north of Syria, particularly to prevent the Syrian Kurds from achieving territorial continuity among their three cantons in northwestern Syria. In addition, it was hoping that the Syrian opposition would capture Aleppo, thereby Source:http://www.sigmalive.com/en/news/ weakening the Assad regime. However, Russian actions in international/138172/russiaturkey-relations-freezing-over-fast Syria have upended these plans and brought Turkish-Russian tensions to an all-time high. The accompanying passages Source: “Türkiye-Rusya gerilimi NATO’yu ürkeklestirdi” (Turkey- from the Turkish press discuss these increasing tensions. Russia tensions have made NATO nervous), Zaman.com.tr, 18 February 2016, http://www.zaman.com.tr/dunya_turkiye-rusya-gerilimi-natoyu- The first accompanying passage notes that relations urkeklestirdi_2347539.html between Russia and Turkey have been deteriorating since 24 “Relations between Turkey and Russia have been deteriorating ever since November 2015, when Turkey shot down a Russian jet which Turkey downed a Russian jet on 24 November [2015] saying that it violated had violated its airspace. It notes that tensions have escalated Turkish airspace. The crisis, which has been escalating due to statements dramatically since then, and are now at a point which coming from both Ankara and Moscow, have reached a point that risks includes the risk of armed conflict between the sides in Syria. the two countries fighting in Syria. The YPG, which is an affiliate of the The passage notes that Russian air strikes in Syria have PKK, has gained new territory near the Turkish border thanks to Russian helped the Syrian Kurdish group YPG (the armed wing of the airstrikes, and has started firing into Turkish territory, to which the Turkish Democratic Union Party, or PYD), which Turkey considers Armed Forces have responded by shelling YPG targets.” to be an affiliate of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). With the help of Russian airstrikes this group has Source: “ABD’den sakinleşme çağrısı” (U.S. calls for calm), Al Jazeera. made gains along the Turkish border and even fired into com.tr, 15 February 2016, http://www.aljazeera.com.tr/haber/abdden- Turkey, to which the Turkish military has responded by sakinlesme-cagrisi shelling them. “Turkey’s shelling of YPG targets north of Syria, have prompted criticism The second passage notes that this shelling has prompted from Russia. The Russian Foreign Ministry, who issued a statement today, criticism from Russian officials, who have been stating that accused Turkey of assisting “new jihadi groups and paid soldiers.” The Turkey supports jihadi and other terrorist groups in Syria. Russian Foreign Ministry who claimed that Ankara
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