Electoral Commission Northern Ireland March 2006

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Electoral Commission Northern Ireland

Update Report No. 5

Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

March 2006

Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Contents

I Background...... 1 Introduction ...... 1 Our Approach ...... 4 Structure of the Report...... 5 II Geographical Patterns ...... 6 Introduction ...... 6 The Overall Pattern...... 6 The Sub-regional Pattern...... 7 The Urban/Rural Pattern...... 10 Local Variations...... 12 Concluding Remarks ...... 17 III Socio-Economic and Demographic Patterns...... 18 Introduction ...... 18 Social Class ...... 18 Deprivation...... 19 Community Background...... 21 Housing Tenure and Dwelling Type...... 24 Demographics ...... 25 Concluding Remarks ...... 29 IV Concluding Remarks...... Error! Bookmark not defined.

Appendix A: Statistical Tables...... 35 Appendix B: Turnout and registration rates by Electoral Ward: May 2005 Local Elections . 55

Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

I Background

Introduction

1.1 This is the fifth report in an ongoing desk research programme to assist the Electoral Commission in meeting its statutory duty to keep under review and, from time to time, submit reports to government on electoral law and practice in Northern Ireland with respect to the Electoral Fraud (Northern Ireland) Act 2002.

1.2 The focus of this research report is on geographical patterns in turnout at the elections held in Northern Ireland on 5 May 2005, when two elections were held simultaneously:

• The Westminster Parliamentary Election, where 18 Members of Parliament were elected from Northern Ireland constituencies; and

• The Local Government Election, at which 582 Councillors were elected spanning 26 District Councils.

1.3 Each of Northern Ireland’s 26 District Council areas is comprised of a number of smaller geographical units called District Electoral Areas (DEAs). There are a total of 101 DEAs. Each DEA is in turn comprised of a set of Electoral Wards. On average, a DEA contains about five Electoral Wards. The total number of Wards is 582.

1.4 Information on the voter turnout at local Council elections has historically only been published down to DEA level. An innovation in this research report is that turnout analysis is conducted at a sub-DEA level. To date electoral analysis of voter turnout has been hampered by a lack of information at Electoral Ward level. This report breaks new ground in compiling estimated turnout rates at Ward level. The purpose of the exercise is to assist the Electoral Commission in its policy remit by shedding light on the geographical and socio-demographic patterns of turnout in Northern Ireland. This new micro level analysis enables, for instance, the areas of extremely low turnout to be identified. Furthermore, the Electoral Commission is able to draw on information on the demographics of turnout “black spots” and can then tailor their communications campaigns to take account of this new information.

1.5 The context of the research work is very much that of the impact of individual registration requirements on voter participation. These were introduced in the Electoral Fraud Act (2002) as part of a package of measures to help combat perceived electoral fraud. There is considerable interest in assessing what has been the impact of the switch in procedures from household registration to individual registration. The output from this report will assist the Electoral Commission and the Electoral Office for Northern Ireland (EONI) to gauge in a detailed manner the geographical and socio-demographic patterns of turnout in Northern Ireland. It will also discuss the relationship between voter registration rates and turnout rates. Assessing the relationship between the two is clearly crucial to an understanding of voter behaviour and how it is influenced by evolving legislation.

1.6 There has been considerable disquiet in both political and administrative circles at the decline in turnout over the course of recent elections in Northern Ireland – given that Northern Ireland has traditionally been viewed as setting the benchmark for turnout in the United Kingdom. Table 1.1 below shows the relevant turnout rates in all parliamentary elections held in Northern Ireland since 1974.

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Table 1.1: Turnout at Westminster Parliamentary Elections in Northern Ireland since 1974

Year Date Percentage Poll

1974 28 February 70.30

1974 10 October 68.50

1979 3 May 68.50

1983 9 June 73.26

1987 11 June 67.41

1992 9 April 70.20

1997 1 May 67.39

2001 7 June 68.63

2005 5 May 63.49

1.7 It is of particular concern to note that the turnout at the 5 May 2005 Westminster Parliamentary Election in Northern Ireland was the lowest since the foundation of Northern Ireland in the early years of the 20th century. It is also noteworthy that the 5 percentage points decline since 2001 in the turnout figure in Northern Ireland went against the trend in the rest of the UK where there was a marginal increase from the 2001 figure (from 59.4% to 61.4%).

1.8 The Westminster and Local Government elections of 5 May 2005 were the first of their kind in Northern Ireland to be conducted since the introduction of individual registration and the requirement placed on voters to produce proof of their identity at the polls. Invariably there will be much speculation concerning the impact of these measures on the turnout. What is factually undeniable is that Northern Ireland “bucked the trend” in the UK with its sharp decline in overall turnout. The 12 biggest individual UK constituency falls were all in Northern Ireland.1 The 5% fall in Northern Ireland was not evenly distributed across all 18 constituencies. The largest decline (and indeed the single largest decline in any seat in the UK) was North Belfast which recorded a drop of 9.0.2.

1 See Election 2005: Turn-out – how many, who and why? The Electoral Commission, p23, Table 7.

2 This excludes the Staffordshire South election which was postponed due to the death of a candidate and where turnout in the eventual election was just 37.2%.

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Table 1.2: % Change Northern Ireland Constituencies 2001-2005 Westminster Election Seats in rank order of change in percentage turnout 2001-2005 Rank Constituency % change

1 Belfast North -9 2 Upper Bann -8.3 3 Mid Ulster -8.2 4 West Tyrone -7.2 5 Newry and Armagh -6.1 6 Strangford -5.9 7 East Londonderry -5.5 8 South Antrim -5.5 9 South Down -5 10 Belfast East -4.7 11 Fermanagh & South Tyrone -4.5 12 North Down -4.4

13 East Antrim -4.3 14 Belfast West -4.2 15 North Antrim -4

16 Foyle -2.6 17 Lagan Valley -2.6 18 Belfast South -2.5

Source: Electoral Commission.

1.9 Turning now to the Local Government arena, Table 1.3 shows the turnout at Local Government Elections in Northern Ireland since 1993. All the subsequent elections from that date have been held on the same Ward boundaries. The table highlights the consistency in the decline in turnout from 2001-2005 with the drop in the Local Government elections mirroring exactly that in the Westminster election.

Table 1.3: Turnout at Local Government Elections, 1993-2005

Year Date Percentage Poll

1993 19 May 56.60

1997 21 May 54.72

2001 7 June 67.89

2005 5 May 62.84

Source: Electoral Office of Northern Ireland (EONI)

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1.10 In both 2001 and 2005 the Local Government Elections were held on the same day as the Westminster Elections and the turnout was markedly increased from the 1993 and 1997 figures when elections were held on independent dates. The 2005 Local Government turnout figure of 62.84% was, however, lower than, for instance, the 1981 figure for Local Government Elections (when there was not a simultaneous Westminster election of 66.20%). Research carried out by PwC subsequent to the May elections established that a clear majority of the voting age population preferred the “joint elections” arrangement.

Our Approach

1.11 Based on data provided to the research team by the EONI, the primary focus of our approach was to calculate estimated turnout rates by Electoral Ward in respect of the Local Government elections held on 5 May 2005. (A corresponding check was conducted on one sample constituency for the Westminster elections and the results were almost identical.)

1.12 The turnout rate for a particular geographic area is given by the number of votes cast expressed as a percentage of the eligible electorate. The size of the eligible electorate at Ward level is readily available from data published by the EONI. Thus, in order to determine the turnout rate at Ward level it was necessary to estimate the number of votes cast at each Electoral Ward.

1.13 The technique adopted was as follows. In both local and Parliamentary elections, voting takes place at designated locations which have available ballot boxes at which votes are cast. In the May 2005 elections, there were a total of 1,545 ballot boxes.

1.14 The EONI was able to supply, for each of the 1,545 ballot boxes, counts of:

• The number of electors eligible to cast a vote at that ballot box.

• The number of ballots actually issued. This is equivalent to the total votes polled at that ballot box.

1.15 From the EONI data it was also possible to identify the Electoral Ward in which the ballot box was physically located. For the most part, the eligible electorate for a ballot box were all within one Electoral Ward only. This was the case for 91 per cent of the 1,545 ballot boxes. In these cases, the ballots issued could be assigned unambiguously to the Ward where the corresponding ballot box was located.

1.16 In the remaining nine per cent of ballot boxes, the eligible electorate was split over two Electoral Wards. As the distribution of the eligible electorate by Electoral Ward was known, the ballots issued for these split ballot boxes were distributed across the Wards in which they were located in proportion to the distribution of the eligible electorate. In that way it was possible to estimate the total number of ballots issued for each of the 582 Wards.

1.17 The number of ballots issued per Ward does not, however, equate exactly with the total votes polled. This is because the ballot box counts did not include postal votes. For the May 2005 local elections, postal votes issued as a proportion of the total electorate averaged out at two per cent, ranging from 0.52 in the Dunmurry Cross DEA to 7.2 per cent in Erne East. In general, postal voting tends to be more prevalent in rural than in urban areas. It was, however, possible to obtain counts of the number of postal votes at DEA level. Within each of the 101 DEAs, the postal vote counts were allocated to the Electoral Ward level in proportion to the distribution of the eligible electorate by Electoral Ward.

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1.18 The foregoing procedures enabled the production of estimates of total votes polled by Electoral Ward at the May 2005 local elections that were consistent with the totals published by the EONI for the 101 DEAs and District Councils.

1.19 For the purposes of this report, one final adjustment was made. Local Council elections were not held in the Ballinderry DEA, part of Cookstown District Council. In order to give a complete picture, turnout rates for the Wards within the Ballinderry DEA were calculated from the Parliamentary election, held on the same day in May 2005. This probably gives a good estimate of the turnout that would have been observed if local elections had been held in that DEA. As noted above, ballots issued for the Parliamentary election held on the same day in May 2005 were checked against the local election ballots issued for a sample Parliamentary Constituency (North Antrim); the variance between the two counts ranged from +0.39 per cent to -1.2 per cent, with most values falling in the range ±0.2 per cent.

1.20 Table C.1 in Appendix C below gives the turnout rates by Electoral Ward estimated using the foregoing methodology, alongside the registration rate for that Ward (the eligible electorate as a percentage of persons aged 18 and over). The Table also shows the turnout rate ranking by Electoral Ward. The Electoral Ward with the highest estimated turnout rate is given a rank of 1 (Owenkillew in Omagh, 87 per cent turnout) while the lowest turnout rate is assigned a rank of 582 (Scrabo in Ards, 42 per cent).

1.21 The turnout rates by Electoral Ward are reported in ‘raw’ terms, that is, they do not include any adjustment for spoilt votes. However, the inclusion of imputed turnout rates for Wards in Ballinderry means that the turnout rate reported for Northern Ireland in later Sections of this report (63.4 per cent) differs slightly from the published figure for total votes polled as a percentage of the eligible electorate (62.8 per cent).

1.22 A final point to note is that the variation in turnout rates at ballot box level can be estimated by calculating the number of ballots issued as a percentage of the eligible electorate. This calculation does not include postal votes issued to the relevant eligible electorate and hence will tend to under-estimate the actual turnout rates for the areas encompassed by the ballot boxes.

1.23 Nonetheless, the ballot box calculation can be useful for illustrating the range that can exist in turnout even within an Electoral Ward and is referred to where appropriate. The detailed analysis of all results at ballot box level highlighted a 50 point spread in the turnout with the highest individual ballot box recorded (86 per cent) located in Lower Glenshane and the lowest (36 per cent) in the Conlig Ward of North Down. These remarkable findings, which will be of great interest to all the political parties and all those involved in boosting participation in the democratic process, are explored in greater detail in the following section.

Structure of the Report

1.24 Section 2 of this report deals with the geography of the turnout at the May 2005 election and in particular highlights the large disparity in turnout rates at a ballot box and Ward level. This analysis is particularly useful in that it casts serious doubts on what has been the perceived wisdom in Northern Ireland over many years, namely that low turnouts are a prerogative of the more affluent of the eastern seaboard of Northern Ireland.

1.25 Section 3 of the report further explores some of the patterns emerging from the geographical analysis, with a focus on the socio-economic and demographic features of areas with low turnout compared to those with high turnout. The characteristics analysed include deprivation, community background, housing tenure and household type.

1.26 Section 4 presents the concluding remarks.

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II Geographical Patterns

Introduction

2.1 This Section presents the main findings in relation to geographical patterns of turnout across Northern Ireland. The Section commences with the overall pattern, focusing on a mapping of turnout rates by Electoral Ward. The sub-regional and urban/rural contrasts evident from the overall pattern are then explored in more detail. This is followed by an analysis of local variations in turnout rates. Taken together, the geographical analyses highlight a number of themes which are analysed further in Section 3 below where the socio-economic and demographic profiles of high and low turnout areas are compared and contrasted.

The Overall Pattern

2.2 In the May 2005 local elections, the spread in turnout rates at DEA level was 32 percentage points, ranging from 81 per cent in Erne East (Fermanagh) to 49 per cent in the Abbey DEA (North Down). At Electoral Ward level, the spread was even greater, with 45 percentage points separating the Scrabo Ward in Ards (42 per cent turnout) from the 87 per cent turnout estimated for the Owenkillew Ward in Omagh (Figure 2.1. See also Table A2.1 in Appendix A).

Figure 2.1 Turnout by District Council - May 2005 showing minimum and maximum rates at Ward level

80 Mean 70 Min 60

Per cent 50 Max

t m s n e gh i rd ge w rry dy ne a d von e ntr A i oyl elfas r A Do Larne De M stown our magh B Lisburnnabbey llymena Armaghk O stle a raiga Limava Strabane rrickfergus tow B BanbrC Coleraine Ca North Down Ballymoney Coo DungannonFermanaghMagherafelt Ca ew N wry and M e N

Source: Derived from data supplied by EONI.

2.3 Clearly, there are very wide disparities in turnout rates at Electoral Ward level. Such variations will inevitably reflect a range of influences. For example, closely fought elections may attract a higher turnout. Political parties may be more or less well- organised in some areas than in others with regard to ‘getting out the vote’. What is of interest in this report is the extent to which there are geographical and socio-demographic patterns that provide indicators for variations in participation in the electoral process.

2.4 As can be seen from Map 2.1, there are very clear geographic patterns in the turnout data. Two patterns in particular stand out:

• The ‘east-west’ divide.

• The urban-rural contrast.

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The Sub-regional Pattern

2.5 For many years commentators have discussed the trend of much higher turnouts in the west of Northern Ireland and in border regions compared to Belfast and the eastern seaboard. Our analysis confirmed this overall picture and it is visually very clear from Map 1.

2.6 The sub-regional pattern shown in Map 2.1 is summarised in Table 2.1 below. The much higher turnout rates in the West and South are especially striking. In the West and South, the mean turnout rate (73 per cent) was 10 percentage points in excess of the NI average. Indeed, the lowest turnout rate in the West and South (60 per cent in Glebe, Magherafelt Town) was actually in excess of the mean for Outer Belfast (58 per cent). Apart from the West and South, turnout rates below 50 per cent were observed in each of the main sub- regions.

Table 2.1 Turnout by sub-region, May 2005 local elections – Per cent of eligible electorate

Region1: Mean Minimum Maximum

% % %

Belfast 61 47 71

Outer Belfast 58 44 69

East 60 42 73

North 65 42 80

West & South2 73 60 87

N. Ireland 63 42 87

Notes: 1 Based on the European Union’s NUTS III classification. 2 Local Council elections were not held in the Ballinderry DEA, Cookstown District Council, in May 2005. In order to give a complete picture, turnout rates for the Wards within the Ballinderry DEA were calculated from the Parliamentary election, held on the same day in May 2005. Source: Derived from data supplied by EONI.

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Project title

Map 2.1: Turnout rate of Electorate May 2005 – Local Government Elections

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Project title

Map 2.2: Registration rate of Electorate May 2005 – Local Government Elections

Page 9 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

2.7 Interestingly, there are rural-urban contrasts within the broad sub-regions listed in Table 2.1 above. This is illustrated by Figure 2.2 which shows the increasing turnout moving from east to west but also, within each sub-region, there is a higher average turnout in rural areas than in urban areas3. This would suggest that there are characteristics of rural areas associated with higher turnout that operate across all sub-regions.

Figure 2.2 Turnout by region and area type

50 Urban 40 Mixed Rural Per cent Per 30

0 Belfast East West & South N. Ireland Outer Belfast North

Source: Derived from data supplied by EONI. Area type classifictaions based on NISRA.

The Urban/Rural Pattern

2.8 There is a large difference in turnout rates between urban and rural areas. In the May 2005 local elections, the estimated mean turnout rate in urban areas was 60 per cent, compared to 70 per cent in rural areas (see Figure 2.2). Indeed, when turnout rates are ranked by Ward, rural areas are found to account for 84 per cent of the population living in the 20 per cent of Wards with the highest turnout rates. Urban areas predominate in the 20 per cent of Wards with the lowest turnout rates, accounting for 88 per cent of the population living in those Wards (Figure 2.3. See also Table A2.2 in Appendix A). In urban areas, almost one in three electors live in Wards in the bottom 20 per cent ranked by turnout rates. In rural areas, close to half (45 per cent) of electors are in the top 20 per cent of Wards ranked by turnout.

3 The urban/rural classifications shown in Figure 2.2 are based on the NISRA categorisation of Census Output Areas (COAs) within Northern Ireland as being ‘urban’ or ‘rural’. COAs are small sub-units of Wards, typically containing about 100 households. The majority of Wards (89 per cent) are comprised entirely of COAs categorised as ‘urban’ or ‘rural. The remaining 11 per cent of Wards contain a mix of COAs categorised as ‘urban’ or ‘rural’.

Page 10 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Figure 2.3 Area type and turnout rate ranking

100

60 Rural Mixed Urban 40

Per centof population 20

0 Bottom 20% 21st-79th percentiles Top 20% All areas Turnout rate - ranking

Source: NISRA, Census of Population 2001; Turnout rates derived from data supplied by EONI.

2.9 The urban-rural contrast is even more apparent when attention is focused on the ‘tails’ of the distribution of turnout rates by Electoral Ward, that is, by contrasting the 20 Wards with the highest turnout rates with the 20 Wards where the turnout rate was lowest (see Tables A2.3 and A2.4 in Appendix A). None of the top 20 Wards are urban – all of them are in rural areas. There is a strong concentration of very high turnout in the Wards of rural parts of Tyrone and in other rural parts of Mid-Ulster. There are also very clear pockets of extremely high turnout along the border, e.g. in Crossmaglen and Rosslea.

2.10 In contrast, the vast majority of the Wards with the lowest turnout are urban. Furthermore, many of them are in areas scoring highly on key deprivation measures such as the Noble Indicators (Table A2.6). Low turnout is not a “North Down phenomenon” as often portrayed by the media.

2.11 Contrary to the widely held view that low turnout is concentrated amongst the wealthier areas in Northern Ireland, this new analysis refutes this theory. There is a concentration of very low turnout in some inner-city areas. This is not confined to Belfast, although a cluster of Wards in East Belfast (Woodstock, The Mount and Island) are in the lowest 20 Wards in the whole of the Northern Ireland. Indeed what is striking is the geographic mixture of the Wards with the lowest turnout. There are particularly low turnouts in Wards containing large public housing estates – notably Ballysally and Cross Glebe in Coleraine (see Table A2.6). These contrasts indicate the need to consider more closely the socio- demographic aspect to turnout, which is addressed in Section 3 below.

2.12 It is not surprising that the pattern established at a Ward level is replicated at the more micro level of polling stations/ballot boxes. Once again none of the highest turnout ballot boxes are in urban areas. Three of the top 20 turn-outs are in the one rural Ward of Swatragh alone. The geographical pattern is very similar to that of the Ward analysis with very strong showings along the border. Good examples of this in the top 20 ballot boxes are in Silver Bridge at 81.5 per cent and Florencecourt and Kinawley at 82 per cent. There are very strong turnouts across the Magherafelt District Council Area with 5 of the top 20 ballot box turnout rates being located in this Council, a further 5 in Omagh and 6 more in Newry and Mourne.

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2.13 Turning to the lowest turnouts at the individual ballot box level, the pattern established in the Wards is again replicated with the results being highly skewed to Wards in urban areas. In addition to the housing estates identified at a Ward level, there were very low turnouts in individual ballot boxes in the Tonagh area of Lisburn and New Mossley in Newtownabbey. The phenomenon of low turnout was not exclusively confined to less well off urban areas. It is noticeable that some of the lowest turnouts are in areas where previous PwC research has identified particularly low levels of electoral registration. Examples of this are in the Loughview Ward of Holywood covering Palace Barracks and in the Rosstulla Ward of Newtownabbey embracing the University of Ulster.

Local Variations

2.14 In order to examine some patterns in more detail, the three council areas of Ballymena, Ballymoney and Moyle, which conveniently match the constituency boundary of North Antrim, were chosen for closer inspection. This choice was deliberate as over a series of recent elections North Antrim has been the “bell weather” seat in respect of turnout with the figure always within a few percentage points of the Northern Ireland average.

2.15 At a Ward level within these three Councils it was feasible to conduct both polling station/ballot box analysis and also detailed Ward analysis. In addition, at the Ward level since the relevant population figures are available, we were able to construct turnout estimates expressed as a percentage of the entire 18+ population residing in the area. These figures are of particular importance since they produce estimates which take account of the prevailing registration rate.

2.16 An interesting finding to emerge from the scrutiny of the ballot box figures was that even within the same Ward there could be very wide variations in turnout. This is perhaps surprising since “a priori” one might expect similar patterns with respect to voter behaviour across the Electoral Ward. This assumption, however, would over-state the actual homogeneity of many Wards in Northern Ireland.

2.17 Indeed what is apparent from analysis of a number of Wards is that they contain several micro clusters subsumed within the overall Ward total. This often means that very different voter behaviour is masked by the aggregate level of analysis which to date has bedevilled much of the work in this arena in Northern Ireland. One example of how Wards can radically differ internally is provided by the Upper Malone Ward in Belfast where a significant “donut” of deprivation exists within the Ward boundaries in the form of the Taughmonagh Estate. Given the earlier results which have been presented, it should not, therefore, be surprising that on some occasions there are often disparities in the turnout in Wards where we can inspect evidence from 3 or 4 different ballot boxes, spread across the demographic profile of the Ward.

2.18 The North Antrim example provides clear evidence for this new hypothesis. In the Summerfield Ward of Ballymena Town the 3 ballot boxes produced turnouts ranging from 49 per cent to 64 per cent. One of the most extreme examples of this within-Ward variation is highlighted in the Harryville area of Ballymena. There, two ballot boxes covered the whole Ward. The turnout could not have been more different – in one ballot box it was 47 per cent and in the other it was 73 per cent. In Dunclug, another Ward in the town, none of the ballot boxes reached a majority of the eligible electorate, ranging from 37 per cent to 50 per cent. In contrast, a ballot box representing the rural village of Dunloy produced one of the highest figures in Northern Ireland with a turnout of 80 per cent. One area which showed more consistency across all the ballot boxes were the Wards of the Glens of Antrim where the turnout was tightly clustered with a spread of 3 or 4 points covering all the areas.

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2.19 When the analysis is extended at a Ward level in the North Antrim area to estimating turnout relative to the 18+ population4, some dramatically low figures emerge (see Map 2.3 overleaf). It is estimated that less than 40 per cent of the population aged 18+ voted in the following Wards in Ballymena town – Dunclug, Balee, Fair Green and Castle Demesne. None of these Wards fit the identikit profile favoured by many commentators of affluent areas where middle-class voters have “switched off” from politics. This new information on the identity of very low turnout areas is of vital importance to the ongoing out-reach and educational work of the Electoral Commission.

4 The analysis to date has been on turnout relative to the eligible electorate.

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Map 2.3: North Antrim Westminster Constituency - Turnout in Ballymena, Ballymoney & Moyle Councils May 2005 Local Government Elections

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2.20 Turning now to the most heavily populated area of Northern Ireland, further analysis was conducted in the Wards of Belfast to ascertain if similar patterns prevailed in a largely urban environment. Once again at an individual ballot box level there was very clear evidence of intra-Ward variation. Probably the most remarkable case is in the Ward of Ballymacarratt where that one area produced the highest ballot box figure (70 per cent) and the lowest (42 per cent) across all ballot boxes in East Belfast.

2.21 The geographical patterns also suggest a community background differential (see Table A2.7 and Map 2.3). For example, in West Belfast the highest turnout at the individual ballot box was in Beechmount Ward (73 per cent) and the lowest was in the loyalist Glencairn Estate (43 per cent). The sub-regional pattern discussed above, notably the higher turnout registered by the West and South of NI, also hints at a relationship between community background and turnout. This is further addressed in Section 3.

2.22 In South Belfast the pattern provides some evidence for a divide in turnout on social class lines; this is indicated with just 44 per cent in a ballot box in the Woodstock area contrasted with 75.9% in Malone and 77.9% in the Musgrave Ward ( on this occasion South Belfast was a hotly-contested parliamentary and local council area- of all 18 parliamentary seats turnout held up best in comparison with 2001)

2.23 In North Belfast there were particularly low turnouts in the large housing estates on the northern outskirts of Belfast, e.g. 45.7% in Rathcoole. The whole area of North Belfast is noticeable for its very low turnout in this election, both in the Local Government arena and in the Westminster poll. No ballot box achieved 70% and the highest recorded was in the Chichester Park Ward off the Antrim Road with 68.7%.

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Project title

Map2.4: Turnout Rate in the Wards of Belfast District Council (Based on those registered)

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Concluding Remarks

2.24 This Section has presented the main findings with respect to the geographical patterns in turnout at the May 2005 local elections. The overall picture is one of a sharp urban-rural contrast overlain on an east-west divide.

2.25 When these overall patterns are further examined, it emerges that areas of high and low turnout embrace a mixture of socio-demographic characteristics. In particular, the areas of low turnout contain a number of inner-city areas with high levels of deprivation and/or with a high share of the population living in social rented housing. But these same areas also contain Wards with relatively low levels of deprivation.

2.26 The uncertain influence of deprivation per se as a factor in low turnout is further highlighted when the 20 Wards with the highest turnout rates are considered. Among these Wards, nine of the 20 are in the 30 per cent most deprived areas of Northern Ireland. Their more distinguishing feature is that the very high turnout Wards are all rural and located west of the Bann. Furthermore, when the Belfast area is examined, the West Belfast Wards exhibit relatively high turnout rates, even though all of these Wards are in the 20 per cent most deprived areas of NI. Indeed, the geographical patterns would suggest that community background, and by extension the nationalist-unionist cleavage, is a factor to consider in analysing variations in turnout rates. For example, 17 of the 20 Wards with the highest turnout rates have a majority Catholic population. In the 20 Wards with the lowest turnout, the exact opposite pattern holds, with 17 of the Wards having a majority Protestant population.

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III Socio-Economic and Demographic Patterns

Introduction

3.1 This Section focuses on socio-economic and demographic patterns in turnout rates at the May 2005 local elections, under the following headings:

• Social class.

• Deprivation.

• Community background.

• Housing tenure and dwelling type.

• Demographics.

Social Class

3.2 The variations in the social class profile of Electoral Wards by turnout are summarised in Table 3.1 overleaf using a three-fold classification of Wards:

• The bottom 20 per cent, that is, the lowest-ranking 116 of the 582 Electoral Wards measured by the turnout rate at the May 2005 local elections. In these Wards, mean turnout was 51.2 per cent, ranging from 41.8 per cent to 55.3 per cent.

• The highest-ranking 20 per cent of Electoral Wards measured by turnout rates (referred to as the ‘top 20 per cent’). Mean turnout was 76.5 per cent, ranging from 71.4 per cent to 86.8 per cent

• The remaining Electoral Wards5. Mean turnout was 63.3 per cent, ranging from 55.3 per cent to 71.2 per cent

3.3 The main finding is that the largest differentials between the profiles for the bottom 20 per cent and the top 20 per cent tend to be found in the middle of the social class spectrum. Most noticeably, small employers/own account workers comprise just six per cent of the population living in the 20 per cent of Wards with the lowest turnout rates compared to 16 per cent in the top 20 per cent. Small employers/own account workers are disproportionately located in rural areas (e.g. the farming community). To the extent that people in this social class have a higher propensity to vote at elections, this would be part of the reason why turnout tends to be higher in rural than in urban areas.

5 Technically, the Wards in the 21st to 79th percentiles of the distribution of turnout rates, ranked from highest to lowest.

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Table 3.1 Social class composition (aged 16-74, excluding full-time students) by turnout rate ranking: Electoral Wards

Turnout All areas

Social class: Bottom 20% 21st-79th Top 20% percentiles % % % % Higher managerial/professional 5 7 4 6

Lower managerial/professional 19 23 17 21

Intermediate 13 13 9 12

Small employers/own account 6 9 16 9

Supervisory/technical 11 9 9 10

Semi-routine 20 16 15 17

Routine 19 16 20 18

Never worked/long-term unemployed 7 7 9 7

All 100 100 100 100

Sources: NISRA Census of Population 2001; Turnout rates by Electoral Ward – derived from data supplied by EONI.

3.4 Nonetheless, the fact that the representation of, respectively, the managerial/professional and routine occupations does not vary much between the Electoral Wards in the top and bottom 20 per cent would suggest, on the average, a relatively weak relationship between the geography of social class and turnout rates.

Deprivation

3.5 In the analysis of geographical patterns in Section 2 above, it was noted that areas of deprivation were to be found in both high- and low-turnout areas, suggesting no clear-cut relationship between deprivation and turnout. This is further supported by the pattern of turnout rates by areas of deprivation shown in Figure 3.1 (see also Table A3.1). As can be seen, the mean turnout rate in the most deprived Wards (62 per cent) was actually slightly in excess of the mean in the least deprived Wards (61 per cent). In fact, the highest turnout rates occurred in the middle-ranking areas by levels of deprivation. This would appear to be an artefact of the urban/rural split in turnout rates.

Page 19 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Figure 3.1 Turnout by deprivation

30 Turnout (%) 20

0 Least depriv ed 10% Thi rd Fifth Seventh Ninth Second Fourth Sixth Eighth Most depriv ed 10% Deprivation

Sources: Derived from EONI data and the NI Measures of Multiple Deprivation.

3.6 As shown in Figure 3.2, turnout rates are, on average, higher in rural areas regardless of the level of deprivation. Indeed, turnout rates tend to be higher in the more deprived rural areas.

Figure 3.2 Turnout by deprivation and type of area

80 70 60

50 Urban 40 Mixed Rural Per cent 30 20 10 0

d h h h nd t th hir ixth hth int ourt Fif S eco T Eig N S F even ed 10% S iv epr d

east deprived 10% L Most

Source: Derived from data supplied by EONI. Area type based on NISR A.

3.7 The higher turnout rates in rural areas in turn influence the pattern of turnout rates by areas of deprivation shown in Figure 3.1 above. This is because the rural population share tends to be higher in the middle-ranking areas by levels of deprivation (Figure 3.3). Combined with the higher turnout rates in rural areas, this is why turnout by deprivation ‘bulges’ in the middle of the distribution in Figure 3.1 above.

Page 20 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Figure 3.3 Rural/urban split by deprivation

100

60 Rural Mixed 40 Urban Turnout (%) 20

ll d th th ird rth xth th A on h n c T Fifth Si e gh Nin Fou v Ei Se Se rived 10%

ost dep Least deprived 10% M

Sources: Derived from EONI data and the NI Measures of Multiple Deprivation.

3.8 Overall, it would appear that deprivation is not correlated with variations in turnout rates. Though, as could be seen in the analysis in Section 2 above, the geographical pattern in turnout rates is complex and the relationship with deprivation is one that will be further examined below in the context of other possible influences on turnout.

Community Background

3.9 When the 582 Electoral Wards are categorised according to whether the local population is majority Protestant or Catholic, the mean turnout rate in majority Catholic areas is 68 per cent, almost eight percentage points higher than the mean of 61.5 per cent in majority Protestant areas.

3.10 This apparent correlation between turnout and community background is even more sharply illustrated when turnout rates are compared with the Catholic population share. As can be seen from Figure 3.4, there is an almost linear positive relationship between turnout rates and the Catholic population share (see also Table A3.2). In areas where the Catholic population share is less than one in ten, the average turnout rate was 58 per cent. But in those areas where Catholics account for 90 per cent or more of the Ward population, turnout averaged 68 per cent.

3.11 One consequence of the correlation between the Catholic share and the turnout rate is that, in the top 20 per cent of Wards ranked by turnout rates, the Catholic population share is well in excess of the overall NI share, 66 per cent compared to 44 per cent (Figure 3.5. See also Table A3.3). The corollary of this is that, in the bottom 20 per cent of Wards ranked by turnout rates, the Protestant population share is well in excess of its overall NI share, 74 per cent compared to 53 per cent.

Page 21 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Figure 3.4 Turnout by Catholic population share

70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 Per cent Per 25 20 15 10 5 0 0%-10% 20%-30% 40%-50% 60%-70% 80%-90% 10%-20% 30%-40% 50%-60% 70%-80% 90%-100% Catholic population share

Figure 3.5 Community background and turnout rate ranking

100

60 None Other Catholic 40 Protestant

Per cent of population 20

0 Bottom 20% Top 20% 21st-79th percentiles All areas Turnout rate - ranking

Source: NISRA, Census of Population 2001; Turnout rates derived from data supplied by EONI.

3.12 The foregoing contrasts in turnout rates by community background of Electoral Wards would seem to suggest a higher turnout propensity amongst Catholics at election time. Further evidence in that regard is provided by the fact that the turnout in majority Catholic areas tends to be higher than in majority Protestant areas even after controlling for levels of deprivation (Figure 3.6). Though, the pattern in turnout rates by deprivation and community background provides some evidence to indicate that, in majority Protestant areas, turnout tends to be lower in the more deprived areas. By contrast, there is no obvious relation between deprivation and turnout in majority Catholic areas. This is consistent with the analysis of geographic patterns in Section 2 above and points to a more nuanced influence of deprivation than Figure 3.1 might suggest.

Page 22 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Figure 3.6 Turnout by areas of deprivation and whether ward population is majority Protestant or Catholic

75 70 65 60 55 50 45 Majority 40 Protestant 35 Majority 30 Catholic 25 20 15 10

Turnout (% of eligible electorate) eligible of (% Turnout 5 0 Least depriv ed 10% Thi rd Fifth Seventh Ninth Second Fourth Sixth Eighth Most de priv ed 10 %

Sources: Turnout rates derived from data supplied by EONI; Population and community background from NISRA.

3.13 Two further points can be made in relation to community background. First, the correlation shown in Figures 3.4 and 3.5 above is not dependent on the urban-rural pattern. Turnout rates are higher in rural areas regardless of the Catholic population share (Table A3.2). In addition, the Catholic population is slightly more likely to reside in rural areas (see table A3.4), but the difference is not great and certainly not sufficient to account for the patterns shown above.

3.14 Second, the differences in turnout rates by community background are not uniformly distributed by region. In particular, the differential in turnout rates is always smaller in the sub-regions than for Northern Ireland as a whole; the differences by sub-region range from -0.9 to +6.6, compared to a Northern Ireland-wide average of +7.2 in favour of Catholic majority areas.

Figure 3.7 Turnout rates by sub-region and whether Ward population is majority Protestant or Catholic

75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 Majority Protestant 35 Majority Catholic

Per cent Per 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Belfast East West & South N. Ireland Outer Belfast North

Sources: Turnout rates derived from data supplied by EONI; Population data from NISRA, Census of Population 2001.

Page 23 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

3.15 This is because the sub-regions containing higher proportions of Catholic majority areas are also those in which turnout is above average, notably the West and South. The main disparities by sub-region are in Belfast and the North of Northern Ireland. But the mean turnout in majority Protestant areas in the West and South is actually slightly in excess of the mean in majority Catholic areas. In short, the geographical pattern in community background population shares is not perfectly correlated with differences between Wards in turnout rates.

Housing Tenure and Dwelling Type

3.16 One of the themes that emerged from the geographical analysis in Section 2 above is that turnout appears to be lower in areas with higher shares of social rented sector housing6; this was a noteworthy feature of the 20 Wards with the lowest turnout rates (see Table A3.6). This is confirmed by the analysis shown in Figure 3.8 (see also Table A3.5). Almost one in three households in the bottom 20 per cent of Wards ranked by turnout are in social rented housing, compared with just 13 per cent in the top 20 per cent. In the population as a whole, slightly over one in five households (21 per cent) live in social rented housing.

Figure 3.8 Tenure and turnout rate ranking

100

80 Other rented 60 Private landlord Social 40 rented Owner- occupied 20 Per cent of households

0 Bottom 20% Top 20% 21st-79th percentiles All areas Turnout rate - ranking

Source: NISRA, Census of Population 2001; Turnout rates derived from data supplied by EONI.

3.17 Household tenure patterns vary strongly between urban and rural areas. In rural areas, almost four in five households (79 per cent) are owner-occupiers, compared with 64 per cent in urban areas (see Table A3.6). Similarly, social rented accommodation is more prevalent in urban (26 per cent) than in rural areas (12 per cent). Thus, the geographical pattern by tenure type is one of the factors associated with the urban-rural divide in turnout.

6 Rented from the Northern Ireland Housing Executive or a Housing Association.

Page 24 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

3.18 Tenure patterns are also associated with variations by dwelling type. Whereas the majority of the social rented sector live in terraced housing (48 per cent) and flats (23 per cent), owner-occupiers are much more likely to reside in detached (47 per cent) and semi- detached (30 per cent) houses (see Table A3.7). Reflecting their different land-use intensities, there is also a strong urban-rural contrast between dwelling types. Urban areas contain high proportions of terraces and flats whereas detached houses are the norm in rural areas (see Table A3.8).

3.19 As with tenure type, the geographical pattern by dwelling type is also correlated with turnout rates. Households living in the more urban-centred flats and terraced dwellings are much more likely to live in the bottom 20 per cent of Wards by turnout whereas households in detached dwellings comprise a majority of those in the top 20 per cent of Wards by turnout (Figure 3.9. See also Table A3.9).

Figure 3.9 Dwelling type and turnout rate ranking

100

Flats, etc 60 Terraced Semi- 40 detached Detached

Per cent of population 20

0 Bottom 20% Top 20% 21st-79th percentiles All areas Turnout rate - ranking

Source: NISRA, Census of Population 2001; Turnout rates derived from data supplied by EONI.

3.20 The fact that there is a correlation between dwelling type and turnout helps to describe the geography of voter turnout, but does not of course tell us why it should be the case, for example, that high proportions of detached dwellings should be positively correlated with voter turnout. Nonetheless, this does suggest that turnout rates are also likely to vary with demographic factors such as household type.

Demographics

3.21 It is well known that younger people, especially those in the age bracket 18-24, are less likely to register to vote than are other age groups in the population. Nonetheless, the population age profile of areas in the bottom 20 per cent by turnout is remarkably similar to the age profile for the Wards in the top 20 per cent of election turnout (Table 3.2). Overall, geographical variations in population age composition are not correlated with the pattern in voter turnout rates.

Page 25 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table 3.2 Population age profile by turnout rate ranking: Electoral Wards

Turnout All areas

Per cent aged: Bottom 20% 21st-79th Top 20% percentiles % % % % 18-24 14 12 13 13

25-29 10 9 10 9

30-44 29 31 30 30

45-59 22 24 24 23

60-74 16 16 15 16

75+ 9 8 8 8

All 100 100 100 100

Sources: NISRA Census of Population 2001; Turnout rates by Electoral Ward – derived from data supplied by EONI.

3.22 Apart from age, other demographic factors of interest include marital status, household type, household size and migration/population mobility. Each of these factors has an urban-rural dimension, and they are each correlated to varying degrees with the geography of voter turnout.

3.23 Turning first to marital status, there is a slight correlation with voter turnout (Table 3.3). The proportion aged 16+ who are married are more likely to live in high turnout areas than in low turnout areas. The profile for people who are separated, divorced or widowed shows the opposite pattern, as they have a higher share of those living in low turnout areas compared to their share of the population living in high turnout areas. The proportion of single people does not vary with the geography of voter turnout. It can also be noted that the voter turnout pattern shown in Table 3.3 is about in line with what might be expected from the urban-rural pattern in marital status (see Table A3.10).

Table 3.3 Marital status profile by turnout rate ranking: Electoral Wards

Turnout All areas

Marital status (% aged 16+): Bottom 20% 21st-79th Top 20% percentiles % % % % Single 35 32 35 33

Married/remarried 45 52 54 51

Separated/divorced/widowed 20 15 12 16

All 100 100 100 100

Sources: NISRA Census of Population 2001; Turnout rates by Electoral Ward – derived from data supplied by EONI.

Page 26 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

3.24 The geography of household types is correlated with voter turnout in a similar manner as with marital status. In particular, couples with dependent children are more likely to be located in high voter turnout areas than in the bottom 20 per cent of turnover (Figure 3.10. See also Table A3.11). Households comprised of one person or all students are somewhat more likely to live in low turnout areas, as are lone parents. The proportion of pensioner households does not vary with voter turnout.

Figure 3.10 Household type and turnout rate ranking

100

80 One person, all student and all other Lone parent 60 Couples, non- dependent children Couples, dependent 40 children Couples, no children 20 Pensioner Per cent of households

0 Bottom 20% Top 20% 21st-79th percentiles All areas Turnout rate - ranking

Source: NISRA, Census of Population 2001; Turnout rates derived from data supplied by EONI.

3.25 Three points can be made regarding the picture for household type. First, the profile for the low turnout areas is more diverse than for the high turnout areas. Second, the profile for the low turnout areas is very similar to what would be found in urban areas while the high turnout profile is typical of rural areas (compare Tables A3.11 and A3.12).

3.26 Third, the relatively high weighting of couples in the high turnout profile means that these areas can also be expected to exhibit above-average numbers of persons per household. This is precisely what the data show. In the high turnout areas, the number of persons aged 18+ per household averages out at 2.15 compared to 1.78 in the low turnout areas (Figure 3.11). Indeed, average household size is more highly correlated with voter turnout than any of the other socio-economic and demographic factors discussed in this Section7. Furthermore, there is a household size ‘gradient’ within each of the broad types of areas. That is, in each type of area, the average household size of Wards in the top 20 per cent is greater than those in the bottom 20 per cent.

7 The simple correlation between the average number of persons per household aged 18+ and the voter turnout rate is 0.69.

Page 27 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Figure 3.11 Average household size by type of area and turnout rate ranking

2.5

2.0

1.5 Bottom 20% 21st-79th percentiles 1.0 Top 20% Household size 0.5

0.0 Urban Mixed Rural All Type of area

Sources: NISR A Census of Population 2001; Turnout rates derived from data supplied by EONI.

3.27 The final demographic factor discussed is population mobility or migration. Not unexpectedly, the higher the rate of migration, whether in- or out-, the more likely is it that an area will be in the bottom 20 per cent of voter turnout Wards (Table 3.4). This is a further factor that can be associated with the urban-rural divide in voter turnout, as population mobility rates tend to be much higher in urban than in rural areas (see Table A3.13).

Table 3.4 Migration1 (% of population) by turnout rate ranking: Electoral Wards

Turnout All areas

Bottom 20% 21st-79th Top 20% percentiles % % % % In-migration 10 7 4 7

Out-migration 9 6 4 7

Total movements 18 13 8 13

Stayers 87 91 94 91

1 Persons changing address in the year previous the Census date March 2001. Sources: NISRA Census of Population 2001; Turnout rates by Electoral Ward – derived from data supplied by EONI.

Page 28 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Concluding Remarks

3.28 This Section has examined socio-economic and demographic patterns in turnout rates at the May 2005 local elections. An important point to note is that such area-based profiling provides further detail on the types of areas where turnout is likely to be low or high. But it should be clearly understood that, while they are indicative, area-based profiles do not provide unambiguous evidence on how people behave within the areas under study. For example, areas with high proportions of households comprised of couples are more likely to exhibit high turnout rates. But it does not necessarily follow that electors living in such households are more likely to vote than those living in other household types8.

3.29 Bearing that caveat in mind, the indicators analysed in this Section can broadly be grouped into three sets. First, there are factors that are not well correlated, if at all, with turnout rates. On the average, the age profile of an Electoral Ward would not appear to provide to be a useful predictor of the turnout rate. Social class and deprivation would also appear to fall into this category, albeit there are important nuances within each of these indicators, as discussed further below.

3.30 Second, there are a set of indicators that are correlated with turnout and which can be associated with the urban-rural divide in voter turnout discussed in Section 2 above. These factors include the small employers/own account workers social class category, housing tenure, dwelling type, marital status, household type and population mobility. Taken together, these factors point to the more mixed and diverse profile of the population in urban areas.

3.31 Third, there are factors that are correlated with turnout and which exert an influence over and above the urban-rural divide. The average number of persons per household aged 18+ falls into this category, though it is plausible to argue that this may reflect an additional effect due to the interaction between factors that influence household size, such as household type and marital status.

3.32 Community background also falls into the category of factors associated with higher turnout over and above any correlation with the urban-rural divide. Specifically, areas with a Catholic majority tend to have higher turnout rates than do areas with a Protestant majority. This holds across the urban-rural divide and differences in deprivation levels between areas. The most noteworthy exception to the pattern was that in the South and West region there was, on the average, parity in turnout rates between areas classified by community background.

3.33 The analysis in this Section pointed to the possibility of a turnout ‘gradient’ by level of deprivation in Protestant areas, which is absent in Catholic areas. It is useful therefore to conclude this Section by briefly re-visiting the local variations discussed in Section 2 above. Starting with the 20 very low and 20 very high turnout Wards, Table 3.5 below presents a selection of socio-economic and demographic characteristics. The main point of note is that areas of deprivation occur in about equal proportions in both the highest and lowest-ranking Wards. But in the lowest-ranking Wards, the areas of highest deprivation mostly (seven of the nine Wards) have a Protestant majority while in the highest-ranking Wards they all have Catholic majorities (see Tables A2.5 and A2.6).

8 This is the ‘ecological fallacy’ problem associated with the analysis of geographical variations in socio-economic and demographic indicators. For example, classifying areas as more or less deprived is useful in targeting resources, but not all poor people live in deprived areas and not all people living in deprived areas are poor.

Page 29 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table 3.5 Selected characteristics of the 20 Wards with highest turnout and the 20 Wards with lowest turnout at May 2005 local elections

Rural 30% most Majority Social rented deprived Protestant 40%+ % % % % 20 highest turnout Wards 20/20 9/20 3/20 0/20

20 lowest turnout Wards 1/20 11/20 17/20 10/20

3.34 Further evidence for a deprivation effect in Protestant majority areas can be seen by focusing on Belfast and North Down Councils. These are interesting in the first instance because they are both highly urbanised. In addition, North Down is overwhelmingly Protestant and, while it is relatively affluent, there are some Wards that fall within the 30 per cent most deprived. Clearly, within Belfast, deprivation does not affect turnout in majority Catholic areas (Figure 3.10. See also Tables A.2.7 and A3.14 and Maps B.2- B.3)9. By contrast, there would appear to be a deprivation effect in Protestant majority Wards. This is clear in Belfast.

3.35 In North Down, there is only one Ward (out of 25) in the bottom 30 per cent by deprivation. Seventeen of North Down’s 25 Wards are in the 30 per cent least deprived. The interesting point about these least-deprived Wards is that voter turnout in May 2005 was not much less than in the least-deprived Protestant majority Wards of Belfast (see Map 3.1 for ward level turn-out in North Down)

9 A similar pattern can be seen in the Derry City Council Wards – see Table A3.15 and Map B.4.

Page 30 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Figure 3.10 Turnout by deprivation and community background: Electoral Wards in Belfast and North Down Councils

BELFAST Maj ority Catholic Catholic, 30% most deprived Middle-ranki ng depriv ation 30% least deprived Majority Protestant 30 % most depri v e d Middle-ranki ng depriv ation 30% least deprived NORTH DOWN 30 % most depri v e d Middle-ranki ng depriv ation 30% least deprived

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Turnout (%)

Sources: Turnout rates derived from data supplied by EONI; Community background and deprivation from N ISRA.

Page 31 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Project title

Map 3.1 Turn-out in the Wards of North Down Council May 2005

Page 32 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

IV Concluding Remarks

This report has examined the geographical patterns in voter turnout at the May 2005 local elections, with a particular focus on the socio-economic and demographic factors associated with variations in turnout rates.

3.36 Overall, while the factors examined in this report help to paint a picture of the geographical pattern in voter turnout rates, it is also clearly the case that socio-economic and demographic factors can only ever provide a partial explanation. As a well-known politician once remarked, ‘all politics is local’ and turnout rates will obviously vary from one area to another depending on the salience or otherwise of local issues. In addition, there may be differences, both within and between political parties, in organisational effectiveness with regard to getting out the vote. The intensity of competition between political parties may also vary from one area to another. In the particular context of Northern Ireland, the constitutional question may be more of a stimulus to voter turnout in areas where the two communities are more evenly balanced than in those where one community is in an overwhelming majority. The combined influence of these political factors may be part of the reason why voter turnout was higher in areas with a Catholic majority than in those with a Protestant majority.

3.37 Nonetheless, from the perspective of providing a better understanding of electoral registration, turnout is helpful for a number of reasons. In the first instance, voter turnout and electoral registration are positively correlated. Electoral Wards with higher registration rates also tend to show higher turnout rates (Figure 4.1).

Figure 4.1 May 2005 turnout by registration rates April 2005

70 70% 67% 67% 69% 60 61% 63% 63% 57% 58% 58% 50

30 Turnout (%)

0 25.9%-80.2% 84.6%-87.0% 89.6%-92.1% 94.3%-96.7% 99.0%-101.9% 80.3%-84.5% 87.1%-89.5% 92.2%-94.2% 96.8%-98.9% 102.0%+ Registration rate

Source: Derived from data supplied by EONI.

3.38 The correlation between electoral registration and voter turnout is perhaps surprising. On the one hand, it might be expected that higher registration rates are more vulnerable to lower turnout simply because there are, proportionately, more voters to get to the ballot box. On the other hand, higher registration rates can also be taken as one indication of engagement with the political process; those who take the time to register may also be more inclined to vote at election time. Furthermore, as previous reports in this series have demonstrated, registration levels can be influenced by a political ‘push’ factor when elections are imminent.

Page 33 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

3.39 Nonetheless, the correlation between registration and turnout serves to sharpen the usefulness of turnout as an indicator of engagement with the political process. To that extent, it is useful to profile the areas of low turnout as a means of more clearly identifying the ‘harder cases’ from the perspective of encouraging electoral registration.

Page 34 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Appendix A: Statistical Tables

Page 35 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table A2.1 Turnout by District Council, May 2005 local elections – Per cent of eligible electorate

Region: Council: Mean Minimum Maximum % % % Belfast Belfast 61 47 71 Outer Belfast Carrickfergus 55 49 64 Castlereagh 59 48 67 Lisburn 61 48 69 Newtownabbey 56 50 62 North Down 55 44 64 East Antrim 58 45 68 Ards 52 42 61 Ballymena 63 46 73 Banbridge 63 51 73 Craigavon 63 47 72 Down 63 55 70 Larne 55 46 65 North Ballymoney 63 52 80 Coleraine 60 42 74 Derry 67 58 76 Limavady 63 52 71 Moyle 61 52 68 Strabane 72 63 78 West & South Armagh 71 63 79 Cookstown 73 63 82 Dungannon 74 61 85 Fermanagh 74 62 85 Magherafelt 75 60 84 Newry and Mourne 71 63 84 Omagh 75 62 87 N. Ireland 63 42 87 Note: Local Council elections were not held in the Ballinderry DEA, Cookstown District Council, in May 2005. In order to give a complete picture, turnout rates for the Wards within the Ballinderry DEA were calculated from the Parliamentary election, held on the same day in May 2005 Source: Derived from data supplied by EONI.

Page 36 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table A2.2 Area type profile by turnout rate ranking: Electoral Wards

Turnout All areas

Area type: Bottom 20%1 21st-79th Top 20%2 percentiles % % % % Column per cent

Urban 88 61 10 58

Mixed 8 15 6 12

Rural 5 25 84 30

All 100 100 100 100

Row per cent

Urban 31 66 3 100

Mixed 13 78 9 100

Rural 3 52 45 100

All 20 63 16 100

1 After ranking the 582 Wards by turnout rate, the bottom 20% comprises the 58 lowest-ranking Wards. 2 The top 20% comprises the 60 highest-ranking Wards by when all Wards are ranked by turnout rate. Sources: NISRA Census of Population 2001; Turnout rates by Electoral Ward – derived from data supplied by EONI.

Page 37 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table A2.3 The 20 Wards with highest turnout rates at the May 2005 local elections

Region District DEA Ward Apr 05 Turnout Type of area registration rate % %

West & South Omagh Mid Tyrone Owenkillew 103 87 Rural

West & South Fermanagh Erne East Rosslea 105 85 Rural

West & South Dungannon Torrent Altmore 111 85 Rural

West & South Fermanagh Erne East Donagh 106 85 Rural

West & South Magherafelt Sperrin Swatragh 107 84 Rural

West & South Newry and Slieve Creggan 118 84 Rural Mourne Gullion West & South Omagh West Tyrone Dromore 99 83 Rural

West & South Omagh West Tyrone Trillick 101 83 Rural

West & South Omagh Mid Tyrone Sixmilecross 101 83 Rural

West & South Omagh Mid Tyrone Termon 109 83 Rural

West & South Magherafelt Sperrin Lower 103 82 Rural Glenshane West & South Fermanagh Erne East Brookeborough 103 82 Rural

West & South Fermanagh Erne East Maguires Bridge 100 82 Rural

West & South Cookstown Drum Manor Lissan 101 82 Rural

West & South Omagh West Tyrone Newtownsaville 105 82 Rural

West & South Newry and Slieve Crossmaglen 105 82 Rural Mourne Gullion West & South Fermanagh Erne West Florence Court 100 81 Rural and Kinawley West & South Magherafelt Moyola Bellaghy 102 81 Rural

West & South Fermanagh Erne West Derrylin 98 81 Rural

West & South Omagh Mid Tyrone Drumnakilly 108 81 Rural

Sources: Turnout and registration derived from data supplied by EONI; Urban/rural classification based on NISRA.

Page 38 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table A2.4 The 20 Wards with lowest turnout rates at the May 2005 local elections

Region District DEA Ward Apr 05 Turnout Type of area registration rate % %

Outer Belfast Lisburn Lisburn Town Tonagh 81 48 Urban South Belfast Belfast Pottinger The Mount 84 47 Urban

Outer Belfast North Down Holywood Loughview 49 47 Urban

East Ards Ards East Loughries 89 47 Mixed

East Craigavon Central Drumgor 73 47 Urban

Outer Belfast North Down Abbey Harbour 76 47 Urban

East Ards Newtownards Ballyrainey 87 47 Mixed

Belfast Belfast Victoria Island 77 47 Urban

East Ards Ards Kircubbin 90 46 Rural Peninsula

Outer Belfast North Down Abbey Whitehill 82 46 Urban

East Ballymena Ballymena Dunclug 74 46 Urban North East Larne Coast Road Ballyloran 76 46 Urban

North Coleraine Coleraine Cross Glebe 87 45 Urban East East Antrim Antrim Town Stiles 78 45 Urban

Outer Belfast North Down Abbey Conlig 100 45 Urban

East Antrim Antrim South Farranshane 82 45 Urban East East Ards Newtownards Central 81 45 Urban

Outer Belfast North Down Bangor West Silverstream 80 44 Urban

North Coleraine Coleraine Ballysally 78 42 Urban East East Ards Newtownards Scrabo 86 42 Urban

Sources: Turnout and registration derived from data supplied by EONI; Urban/rural classification based on NISRA.

Page 39 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table A2.5 The 20 Wards with highest turnout rates at the May 2005 local elections: Selected characteristics

District Ward Majority Deprivation Tenure (% of households) population (10 = most deprived 10%, Owner- Social Rented 1=least) occupied

Omagh Owenkillew Catholic 8 82 9 9

Fermanagh Rosslea Catholic 9 75 13 11

Dungannon Altmore Catholic 8 85 4 11

Fermanagh Donagh Catholic 6 86 6 8

Magherafelt Swatragh Catholic 4 85 8 7

Newry and Creggan Catholic 9 82 9 9 Mourne Omagh Dromore Catholic 8 68 22 10

Omagh Trillick Catholic 5 84 7 9

Omagh Sixmilecross Catholic 8 83 6 12

Omagh Termon Catholic 9 82 6 12

Magherafelt Lower Glenshane Catholic 4 87 5 8

Fermanagh Brookeborough Protestant 5 84 7 9

Fermanagh Maguires Bridge Protestant 4 80 7 13

Cookstown Lissan Protestant 4 86 5 9

Omagh Newtownsaville Catholic 5 86 1 12

Newry and Crossmaglen Catholic 10 68 22 10 Mourne Fermanagh Florence Court Catholic 5 87 4 9 and Kinawley Magherafelt Bellaghy Catholic 5 76 12 12

Fermanagh Derrylin Catholic 6 81 8 11

Omagh Drumnakilly Catholic 8 87 6 7

Sources: Turnout and registration derived from data supplied by EONI; Urban/rural classification based on NISRA.

Page 40 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table A2.6 The 20 Wards with lowest turnout rates at the May 2005 local elections: Selected characteristics

District Ward Majority Deprivation Tenure (% of households) population (10 = most deprived 10%, Owner- Social Rented 1=least) occupied

Lisburn Tonagh Protestant 8 63 29 7

Belfast The Mount Protestant 10 31 49 20

North Down Loughview Protestant 4 51 28 21

Ards Loughries Protestant 3 77 19 3

Craigavon Drumgor Catholic 9 54 40 6

North Down Harbour Protestant 6 64 4 32

Ards Ballyrainey Protestant 7 53 41 7

Belfast Island Protestant 10 41 48 11

Ards Kircubbin Catholic 6 74 16 10

North Down Whitehill Protestant 6 60 36 4

Ballymena Dunclug Catholic 9 48 47 5

Larne Ballyloran Protestant 9 50 45 5

Coleraine Cross Glebe Protestant 9 40 55 4

Antrim Stiles Protestant 7 63 33 4

North Down Conlig Protestant 6 54 43 3

Antrim Farranshane Protestant 10 59 37 4

Ards Central Protestant 8 51 38 11

North Down Silverstream Protestant 3 83 7 10

Coleraine Ballysally Protestant 9 35 61 4

Ards Scrabo Protestant 9 47 51 2

Sources: Turnout and registration derived from data supplied by EONI; Urban/rural classification based on NISRA.

Page 41 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table A2.7 Belfast City Council May 2005 turnout and selected characteristics

DEA Ward Turnout (% Majority Deprivation Tenure (% of of eligible population (10 = most households) electorate) deprived 10%, 1=least) Social Rented

Balmoral Blackstaff 58 Protestant 10 31 24

Finaghy 69 Protestant 2 5 4

Malone 70 Catholic 1 1 17

Musgrave 68 Catholic 4 14 8

Upper Malone 62 Protestant 5 33 4

Windsor 55 Protestant 4 12 51

Laganbank Ballynafeigh 57 Catholic 7 22 22

Botanic 55 Catholic 6 20 58

Rosetta 65 Catholic 3 14 11

Shaftesbury 52 Protestant 10 66 11

Stranmillis 71 Catholic 1 1 24

Pottinger Ballymacarrett 59 Catholic 10 66 6

Bloomfield 55 Protestant 8 17 20

Orangefield 61 Protestant 3 5 7

Ravenhill 61 Protestant 4 6 15

The Mount 47 Protestant 10 49 20

Woodstock 48 Protestant 10 41 19

Victoria Ballyhackamore 60 Protestant 3 7 13

Belmont 59 Protestant 4 23 7

Cherryvalley 61 Protestant 2 13 6

Island 47 Protestant 10 48 11

Knock 64 Protestant 3 18 4

Stormont 65 Protestant 1 5 8

Sydenham 53 Protestant 8 22 13

Castle Bellevue 56 Catholic 7 23 9

Castleview 57 Protestant 7 36 6

Cavehill 69 Catholic 2 2 4

Chichester Park 60 Catholic 8 19 14

Page 42 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table A2.7 Belfast City Council May 2005 turnout and selected characteristics

DEA Ward Turnout (% Majority Deprivation Tenure (% of of eligible population (10 = most households) electorate) deprived 10%, 1=least) Social Rented Duncairn 55 Protestant 10 63 9

Fortwilliam 64 Protestant 6 8 13

Oldpark Ardoyne 61 Catholic 10 52 12

Ballysillan 60 Protestant 9 29 7

Cliftonville 61 Catholic 9 21 9

Legoniel 62 Protestant 10 34 7

New Lodge 57 Catholic 10 70 5

Water Works 57 Catholic 10 39 20

Court Crumlin 57 Protestant 10 79 3

Glencairn 55 Protestant 10 45 7

Highfield 62 Protestant 9 38 2

Shankill 51 Protestant 10 76 5

Woodvale 58 Protestant 10 44 16

Lower Falls Beechmount 70 Catholic 10 25 17

Clonard 68 Catholic 10 46 9

Falls 66 Catholic 10 75 2

Upper Springfield 67 Catholic 10 54 2

Whiterock 68 Catholic 10 60 4

Upper Falls Andersonstown 68 Catholic 9 19 13

Falls Park 70 Catholic 9 15 5

Glen Road 69 Catholic 10 36 3

Glencolin 67 Catholic 10 41 3

Ladybrook 66 Catholic 9 30 2

Sources: Turnout and registration derived from data supplied by EONI; Urban/rural classification based on NISRA.

Page 43 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table A3.1 Turnout by deprivation and type of area: Electoral Wards

Type of area All areas

Deprivation (% of Wards): Urban Mixed Rural % % % % Least deprived 10% 62 60 65 61

Second 60 59 65 62

Third 61 60 67 63

Fourth 59 66 71 65

Fifth 58 65 74 67

Sixth 59 66 68 64

Seventh 59 61 71 63

Eighth 59 61 74 64

Ninth 59 66 76 64

Most deprived 10% 61 64 75 62

All 60 62 70 63

Sources: NISRA Census of Population 2001; Turnout rates by Electoral Ward – derived from data supplied by EONI.

Page 44 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table A3.2 Turnout by Catholic population share and type of area: Electoral Wards

Catholic share: Urban Rural All % % % 0%-10% 56 63 58

10%-20% 58 64 60

20%-30% 59 69 62

30%-40% 59 70 62

40%-50% 61 72 67

50%-60% 63 70 66

60%-70% 61 73 68

70%-80% 63 72 68

80%-90% 62 72 68

90%-100% 66 74 68

All 60 69 63

Sources: NISRA Census of Population 2001; Turnout rates by Electoral Ward – derived from data supplied by EONI.

Page 45 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table A3.3 Community background composition by turnout rate ranking: Electoral Wards

Turnout All areas

Community background: Bottom 20% 21st-79th Top 20% percentiles % % % % Protestant 74 52 33 53

Catholic 21 45 66 44

Other 1 0 0 0

None 5 3 1 3

All 100 100 100 100

Sources: NISRA Census of Population 2001; Turnout rates by Electoral Ward – derived from data supplied by EONI.

Table A3.4 Community background composition by type of area: Electoral Wards

Community background: Urban Mixed Rural All % % % % Protestant 54 55 50 53

Catholic 42 41 48 44

Other 1 0 0 0

None 3 3 2 3

All 100 100 100 100

Sources: NISRA Census of Population 2001; Turnout rates by Electoral Ward – derived from data supplied by EONI.

Page 46 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table A3.5 Household tenure profile by turnout rate ranking: Electoral Wards

Turnout All areas

Tenure (% of households): Bottom 20% 21st-79th Top 20% percentiles % % % % Owner-occupied 58 72 78 70

Social rented 32 19 13 21

Private landlord 8 6 3 7

Other rented 2 3 6 3

All 100 100 100 100

Sources: NISRA Census of Population 2001; Turnout rates by Electoral Ward – derived from data supplied by EONI.

Table A3.6 Household tenure profile by type of area: Electoral Wards

Tenure (% of households): Urban Mixed Rural All % % % % Owner-occupied 64 76 79 70

Social rented 26 16 12 21

Private landlord 7 5 6 7

Other rented 2 3 4 3

All 100 100 100 100

Source: NISRA Census of Population 2001

Page 47 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table A3.7 Dwelling type profile by type of area: Electoral Wards

Tenure (% of households): Urban Mixed Rural All % % % % Detached 23 45 63 36

Semi-detached 30 29 21 27

Terraced 35 20 13 27

Flats, etc 12 6 3 9

All 100 100 100 100

Source: NISRA Census of Population 2001

Table A3.8 Tenure by dwelling type

Tenure

Dwelling type: Owner- occupied Social rented Landlord Other rented % % % % Detached 47 7 19 37

Semi-detached 30 22 21 23

Terraced 20 48 37 14

Flats, etc 2 23 22 7

All 100 100 100 100

Sources: NISRA Census of Population 2001; Turnout rates by Electoral Ward – derived from data supplied by EONI.

Page 48 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table A3.9 Dwelling type profile by turnout rate ranking: Electoral Wards

Turnout All areas

Dwelling type (% of dwelling Bottom 20% 21st-79th Top 20% units): percentiles % % % % Detached 18 37 64 36

Semi-detached 24 30 20 27

Terraced 42 25 13 27

Flats, etc 15 8 3 9

All 100 100 100 100

Sources: NISRA Census of Population 2001; Turnout rates by Electoral Ward – derived from data supplied by EONI.

Table A3.10 Marital status profile by type of area: Electoral Wards

Marital status (persons aged16+): Urban Mixed Rural All % % % % Single 34 30 32 33

Married/remarried 47 56 56 51

Separated/divorced/widowed 18 14 12 16

All 100 100 100 100

Source: NISRA Census of Population 2001

Page 49 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table A3.11 Household type profile by turnout rate ranking: Electoral Wards

Turnout All areas

Household type: Bottom 20% 21st-79th Top 20% percentiles % % % % Pensioner 21 20 18 20

Couple, no children 13 13 10 13

Couple w/dependent children 21 29 36 28

Couple w/non-dependent children 7 8 10 8

Lone parent 14 13 11 13

One person, all student and all other 23 17 14 18

All 100 100 100 100

Sources: Household type profile – NISRA Census of Population 2001; Turnout rates by Electoral Ward – derived from data supplied by EONI.

Table A3.12 Household type profile by type of area: Electoral Wards

Household type: Urban Mixed Rural All % % % % Pensioner 21 17 19 20

Couple, no children 12 15 13 13

Couple w/dependent children 25 33 35 28

Couple w/non-dependent children 7 9 10 8

Lone parent 14 12 10 13

One person, all student and all other 20 15 14 18

All 100 100 100 100

Source: NISRA Census of Population 2001

Page 50 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table A3.13 Migration1 (% of population) by type of area: Electoral Wards

Dwelling type (% of dwelling Urban Mixed Rural All units): % % % % In-migration 8 7 5 7

Out-migration 8 6 5 7

Total movements 16 13 9 13

Stayers 89 91 93 91

1 Persons changing address in the year previous the Census date March 2001. Source: NISRA Census of Population 2001

Page 51 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table A3.14 North Down Borough Council May 2005 turnout and selected characteristics

DEA Ward Turnout (% Majority Deprivation Tenure (% of of eligible population (10 = most households) electorate) deprived 10%, 1=least) Social Rented

Holywood Craigavad 61 Protestant 1 4 7

Cultra 60 Protestant 1 0 5

Holywood 52 Protestant 2 18 13 Demesne Holywood Priory 60 Protestant 1 10 4

Loughview 47 Protestant 4 28 21

Bangor West Bryansburn 62 Protestant 1 1 12

Clandeboye 48 Protestant 4 19 6

Crawfordsburn 61 Protestant 1 3 6

Dufferin 50 Protestant 8 41 3

Princetown 63 Protestant 1 6 7

Silverstream 44 Protestant 3 7 10

Springhill 64 Protestant 1 1 8

Ballyholme Ballycrochan 55 Protestant 1 1 4 and Groomsport Ballyholme 62 Protestant 1 1 5 Ballymaconnell 61 Protestant 1 0 2

Ballymagee 54 Protestant 1 1 4

Broadway 61 Protestant 1 15 7

Churchill 56 Protestant 1 13 5

Groomsport 63 Protestant 1 7 5

Abbey Bangor Castle 55 Protestant 5 15 14

Bloomfield 49 Protestant 5 31 5

Conlig 45 Protestant 6 43 3

Harbour 47 Protestant 6 4 32

Rathgael 52 Protestant 2 2 12

Whitehill 46 Protestant 6 36 4

Sources: Turnout and registration derived from data supplied by EONI; Urban/rural classification based on NISRA.

Page 52 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table A3.15 Derry City Council May 2005 turnout and selected characteristics

DEA Ward Turnout (% Majority Deprivation Tenure (% of of eligible population (10 = most households) electorate) deprived 10%, 1=least) Social Rented

Cityside Beechwood 75 Catholic 10 33 6

Brandywell 68 Catholic 10 64 3

Creggan Central 75 Catholic 10 64 5

Creggan South 76 Catholic 10 65 1

Westland 74 Catholic 10 37 6

Northland Crevagh 67 Catholic 10 46 4

Foyle Springs 72 Catholic 8 18 7

Pennyburn 75 Catholic 5 7 5

Rosemount 67 Catholic 10 27 17

Springtown 72 Catholic 8 21 4

Strand 61 Catholic 10 31 32

The Diamond 64 Catholic 10 40 17

Shantallow Ballynashallog 72 Catholic 7 7 4

Carn Hill 68 Catholic 10 41 3

Culmore 65 Catholic 8 34 5

Shantallow East 68 Catholic 10 46 1

Shantallow West 60 Catholic 10 54 4

Waterside Altnagelvin 66 Protestant 7 25 8

Caw 67 Protestant 8 47 6

Clondermot 67 Catholic 9 28 6

Ebrington 58 Protestant 9 30 27

Kilfennan 62 Protestant 3 1 12

Lisnagelvin 66 Protestant 6 22 8

Victoria 64 Catholic 10 29 16

Rural Banagher 73 Catholic 7 12 7

Claudy 64 Catholic 6 13 8

Eglinton 62 Protestant 4 10 8

Enagh 59 Catholic 8 32 5

Holly Mount 67 Catholic 7 14 7

Page 53 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table A3.15 Derry City Council May 2005 turnout and selected characteristics

DEA Ward Turnout (% Majority Deprivation Tenure (% of of eligible population (10 = most households) electorate) deprived 10%, 1=least) Social Rented New Buildings 71 Protestant 6 15 4

Sources: Turnout and registration derived from data supplied by EONI; Urban/rural classification based on NISRA.

Page 54 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Appendix B: Turnout and registration rates by Electoral Ward: May 2005 Local Elections

Page 55 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table B.1 Turnout and registration rates by Electoral Ward: Local elections May 2005

Registration Turnout District Council DEA Ward % % Rank % % No. Antrim North Antrim Cranfield 95 65 253 West Antrim North Antrim Drumanaway 89 66 232 West Antrim North Antrim Randalstown 96 58 413 West Antrim North Antrim Shilvodan 93 67 203 West Antrim North Antrim Toome 97 65 244 West Antrim South Antrim Aldergrove 47 61 343 East Antrim South Antrim Ballycraigy 85 50 543 East Antrim South Antrim Clady 98 67 184 East Antrim South Antrim Crumlin 93 61 362 East Antrim South Antrim Farranshane 82 45 578 East Antrim South Antrim Parkgate 99 67 182 East Antrim South Antrim Templepatrick 85 65 255 East Antrim Antrim Town Balloo 86 50 551 Antrim Antrim Town Fountain Hill 84 52 523 Antrim Antrim Town Greystone 88 55 472 Antrim Antrim Town Massereene 110 50 548 Antrim Antrim Town Springfarm 71 49 557 Antrim Antrim Town Steeple 85 51 533 Antrim Antrim Town Stiles 78 45 576 Ards Ards East Donaghadee North 86 53 505 Ards Ards East Donaghadee South 80 51 535 Ards Ards East Gregstown 92 52 520 Ards Ards East Loughries 89 47 566 Ards Ards East Millisle 97 52 526 Ards Ards East Movilla 87 50 552 Ards Ards Peninsula Ballywalter 90 55 473 Ards Ards Peninsula Carrowdore 95 56 461 Ards Ards Peninsula Kircubbin 90 46 571 Ards Ards Peninsula Portaferry 93 56 456

Page 56 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table B.1 Turnout and registration rates by Electoral Ward: Local elections May 2005

Registration Turnout District Council DEA Ward % % Rank % % No. Ards Ards Peninsula Portavogie 101 55 482 Ards Ards West Ballygowan 95 56 457 Ards Ards West Comber East 84 53 501 Ards Ards West Comber North 86 51 537 Ards Ards West Comber West 92 57 441 Ards Ards West Killinchy 97 57 425 Ards Ards West Lisbane 92 61 349 Ards Newtownards Ballyrainey 86 47 568 Ards Newtownards Bradshaw's Brae 92 54 495 Ards Newtownards Central 81 44 579 Ards Newtownards Glen 86 49 556 Ards Newtownards Scrabo 85 42 582 Ards Newtownards Whitespots 94 55 469 Armagh Armagh City Abbey Park 80 67 212 Armagh Armagh City Callan Bridge 89 63 304 Armagh Armagh City Demesne 93 67 192 Armagh Armagh City Downs 86 68 179 Armagh Armagh City Observatory 95 64 280 Armagh Armagh City The Mall 76 66 228 Armagh Crossmore Carrigatuke 95 77 49 Armagh Crossmore Derrynoose 102 71 114 Armagh Crossmore Keady 93 66 216 Armagh Crossmore Killylea 96 76 59 Armagh Crossmore Milford 103 73 99 Armagh Cusher Hamiltonsbawn 101 74 88 Armagh Cusher Killeen 106 79 30 Armagh Cusher Laurelvale 102 69 149 Armagh Cusher Markethill 94 71 126 Armagh Cusher Poyntz Pass 101 69 152 Armagh Cusher Tandragee 90 70 131 Armagh The Orchard Ballymartrim 99 75 71 Armagh The Orchard Charlemont 96 70 139 Armagh The Orchard Hockley 94 73 96 Armagh The Orchard Loughgall 100 70 135

Page 57 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table B.1 Turnout and registration rates by Electoral Ward: Local elections May 2005

Registration Turnout District Council DEA Ward % % Rank % % No. Armagh The Orchard Rich Hill 86 71 122 Ballymena Ballymena North Academy 94 64 263 Ballymena Ballymena North Ardeevin 107 59 399 Ballymena Ballymena North Ballyloughan 92 65 252 Ballymena Ballymena North Dunclug 74 46 573 Ballymena Ballymena North Fair Green 80 51 539 Ballymena Ballymena North Galgorm 100 63 296 Ballymena Ballymena North Park 85 57 437 Ballymena Ballymena Ballee 77 51 534 South Ballymena Ballymena Ballykeel 86 53 510 South Ballymena Ballymena Castle Demesne 81 50 547 South Ballymena Ballymena Harryville 83 64 276 South Ballymena Ballymena Kells 91 62 322 South Ballymena Ballymena Moat 84 53 500 South Ballymena Ballymena Summerfield 89 59 393 South Ballymena Bannside Ahoghill 97 66 227 Ballymena Bannside Cullybackey 97 66 230 Ballymena Bannside Dunminning 95 71 121 Ballymena Bannside Grange 105 71 120 Ballymena Bannside Portglenone 95 68 173 Ballymena Braid Broughshane 94 65 245 Ballymena Braid Craigywarren 103 69 159 Ballymena Braid Glenravel 107 73 95 Ballymena Braid Glenwhirry 96 64 271 Ballymena Braid Slemish 97 66 223 Ballymoney Ballymoney Carnany 99 53 504 Town Ballymoney Ballymoney Fairhill 99 60 383 Town Ballymoney Ballymoney Glebe 98 53 507 Town Ballymoney Ballymoney Newhill 101 52 514 Town Ballymoney Ballymoney Route 89 55 475 Town Ballymoney Bann Valley Clogh Mills 90 67 206

Page 58 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table B.1 Turnout and registration rates by Electoral Ward: Local elections May 2005

Registration Turnout District Council DEA Ward % % Rank % % No. Ballymoney Bann Valley Dunloy 97 80 24 Ballymoney Bann Valley Killoquin Lower 92 67 207 Ballymoney Bann Valley Killoquin Upper 96 74 80 Ballymoney Bann Valley Seacon 101 62 342 Ballymoney Bann Valley The Vow 93 69 155 Ballymoney Bushvale Ballyhoe and Corkey 98 74 78 Ballymoney Bushvale Benvardin 103 61 370 Ballymoney Bushvale Dervock 91 61 348 Ballymoney Bushvale Knockaholet 93 72 113 Ballymoney Bushvale Stranocum 98 57 432 Banbridge Banbridge Town Ballydown 98 64 262 Banbridge Banbridge Town Banbridge West 86 57 445 Banbridge Banbridge Town Edenderry 84 51 529 Banbridge Banbridge Town Fort 83 60 377 Banbridge Banbridge Town Seapatrick 94 65 237 Banbridge Banbridge Town The Cut 88 55 476 Banbridge Dromore BallyWard 91 71 118 Banbridge Dromore Dromore North 93 56 465 Banbridge Dromore Dromore South 101 62 315 Banbridge Dromore Gransha 105 65 246 Banbridge Dromore Quilly 106 67 199 Banbridge Knockiveagh Bannside 97 72 105 Banbridge Knockiveagh Gilford 85 56 458 Banbridge Knockiveagh Katesbridge 103 73 91 Banbridge Knockiveagh Lawrencetown 93 66 229 Banbridge Knockiveagh Loughbrickland 106 67 189 Banbridge Knockiveagh Rathfriland 94 67 204 Belfast Balmoral Blackstaff 70 58 410 Belfast Balmoral Finaghy 90 69 144 Belfast Balmoral Malone 87 70 137 Belfast Balmoral Musgrave 83 68 166 Belfast Balmoral Upper Malone 85 62 330 Belfast Balmoral Windsor 37 55 481 Belfast Castle Bellevue 83 56 453

Page 59 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table B.1 Turnout and registration rates by Electoral Ward: Local elections May 2005

Registration Turnout District Council DEA Ward % % Rank % % No. Belfast Castle Castleview 95 57 427 Belfast Castle Cavehill 95 69 154 Belfast Castle Chichester Park 91 60 392 Belfast Castle Duncairn 80 55 466 Belfast Castle Fortwilliam 85 64 267 Belfast Court Crumlin 80 57 443 Belfast Court Glencairn 79 55 487 Belfast Court Highfield 90 62 335 Belfast Court Shankill 86 51 536 Belfast Court Woodvale 82 58 411 Belfast Laganbank Ballynafeigh 62 57 423 Belfast Laganbank Botanic 26 55 468 Belfast Laganbank Rosetta 90 65 239 Belfast Laganbank Shaftesbury 76 52 525 Belfast Laganbank Stranmillis 50 71 129 Belfast Lower Falls Beechmount 86 70 133 Belfast Lower Falls Clonard 89 68 171 Belfast Lower Falls Falls 95 66 235 Belfast Lower Falls Upper Springfield 95 67 197 Belfast Lower Falls Whiterock 99 68 170 Belfast Oldpark Ardoyne 88 61 364 Belfast Oldpark Ballysillan 87 60 376 Belfast Oldpark Cliftonville 87 61 355 Belfast Oldpark Legoniel 87 62 338 Belfast Oldpark New Lodge 91 57 440 Belfast Oldpark Water Works 83 57 438 Belfast Pottinger Ballymacarrett 91 59 404 Belfast Pottinger Bloomfield 78 55 478 Belfast Pottinger Orangefield 93 61 357 Belfast Pottinger Ravenhill 81 61 345 Belfast Pottinger The Mount 84 47 564 Belfast Pottinger Woodstock 77 48 562 Belfast Upper Falls Andersonstown 87 68 167 Belfast Upper Falls Falls Park 90 70 134

Page 60 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table B.1 Turnout and registration rates by Electoral Ward: Local elections May 2005

Registration Turnout District Council DEA Ward % % Rank % % No. Belfast Upper Falls Glen Road 93 69 148 Belfast Upper Falls Glencolin 89 67 193 Belfast Upper Falls Ladybrook 92 66 224 Belfast Victoria Ballyhackamore 88 60 384 Belfast Victoria Belmont 90 59 400 Belfast Victoria Cherryvalley 85 61 354 Belfast Victoria Island 77 47 570 Belfast Victoria Knock 90 64 279 Belfast Victoria Stormont 97 65 257 Belfast Victoria Sydenham 82 53 503 Carrickfergus Carrick Castle Killycrot 83 50 542 Carrickfergus Carrick Castle Love Lane 89 50 541 Carrickfergus Carrick Castle Milebush 86 53 511 Carrickfergus Carrick Castle Northland 79 51 530 Carrickfergus Carrick Castle Sunnylands 83 56 451 Carrickfergus Kilroot Blackhead 83 53 497 Carrickfergus Kilroot Bluefield 80 56 459 Carrickfergus Kilroot Boneybefore 89 64 282 Carrickfergus Kilroot Eden 103 53 499 Carrickfergus Kilroot Victoria 91 55 480 Carrickfergus Kilroot Whitehead 88 56 464 Knockagh Carrickfergus Burleigh Hill 93 57 426 Monumet Knockagh Carrickfergus Clipperstown 87 49 555 Monumet Knockagh Carrickfergus Gortalee 82 55 471 Monumet Knockagh Carrickfergus Greenisland 90 52 515 Monumet Knockagh Carrickfergus Knockagh 99 61 369 Monumet Knockagh Carrickfergus Woodburn 94 57 442 Monumet Castlereagh Castlereagh Cregagh 83 56 460 Central Castlereagh Castlereagh Downshire 91 56 452 Central Castlereagh Castlereagh Lisnasharragh 99 61 359 Central Castlereagh Castlereagh Lower Braniel 93 57 424 Central

Page 61 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table B.1 Turnout and registration rates by Electoral Ward: Local elections May 2005

Registration Turnout District Council DEA Ward % % Rank % % No. Castlereagh Castlereagh Upper Braniel 99 58 412 Central Castlereagh Castlereagh Wynchurch 89 63 301 Central Castlereagh Castlereagh Ballyhanwood 94 64 291 East Castlereagh Castlereagh Carrowreagh 85 53 502 East Castlereagh Castlereagh Dundonald 84 58 417 East Castlereagh Castlereagh Enler 81 48 561 East Castlereagh Castlereagh Gilnahirk 94 67 191 East Castlereagh Castlereagh Graham's Bridge 86 52 522 East Castlereagh Castlereagh Tullycarnet 89 55 483 East Castlereagh Castlereagh Cairnshill 93 62 323 South Castlereagh Castlereagh Carryduff East 88 58 420 South Castlereagh Castlereagh Carryduff West 89 57 433 South Castlereagh Castlereagh Knockbracken 87 65 240 South Castlereagh Castlereagh Moneyreagh 92 64 270 South Castlereagh Castlereagh Beechill 77 61 358 West Castlereagh Castlereagh Galwally 85 63 307 West Castlereagh Castlereagh Hillfoot 93 65 236 West Castlereagh Castlereagh Minnowburn 88 55 477 West Castlereagh Castlereagh Newtownbreda 86 64 274 West Coleraine Bann Agivey 101 67 195 Coleraine Bann Castlerock 92 64 286 Coleraine Bann Garvagh 94 74 87 Coleraine Bann Kilrea 96 72 106 Coleraine Bann Macosquin 97 67 185 Coleraine Bann Ringsend 103 72 112 Coleraine Coleraine Central 83 53 508 Central Coleraine Coleraine Churchland 82 53 509 Central Coleraine Coleraine Knocklynn 102 57 428 Central

Page 62 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table B.1 Turnout and registration rates by Electoral Ward: Local elections May 2005

Registration Turnout District Council DEA Ward % % Rank % % No. Coleraine Coleraine Mount Sandel 89 58 409 Central Coleraine Coleraine The Cuts 92 57 436 Central Coleraine Coleraine Waterside 108 63 303 Central Coleraine Coleraine East Ballysally 78 42 581 Coleraine Coleraine East Cross Glebe 86 45 575 Coleraine Coleraine East Dundooan 79 60 375 Coleraine Coleraine East Dunluce 87 61 367 Coleraine Coleraine East University 71 53 498 Coleraine The Skerries Atlantic 76 57 446 Coleraine The Skerries Hopefield 92 61 361 Coleraine The Skerries Portstewart 67 59 398 Coleraine The Skerries Royal Portrush 77 50 544 Coleraine The Skerries Strand 68 64 273 Cookstown Ballinderry1 Ardboe 102 78 38 Cookstown Ballinderry1 Coagh 92 78 37 Cookstown Ballinderry1 Killycolpy 100 78 42 Cookstown Ballinderry1 Moneymore 91 71 116 Cookstown Ballinderry1 Stewartstown 95 74 84 Cookstown Ballinderry1 The Loop 101 77 53 Cookstown Cookstown Gortalowry 88 63 302 Central Cookstown Cookstown Killymoon 87 63 305 Central Cookstown Cookstown Newbuildings 90 66 222 Central Cookstown Cookstown Oldtown 97 69 153 Central Cookstown Cookstown Tullagh 95 65 256 Central Cookstown Drum Manor Dunnamore 98 76 61 Cookstown Drum Manor Lissan 100 82 14 Cookstown Drum Manor Oaklands 100 80 25 Cookstown Drum Manor Pomeroy 96 77 44 Cookstown Drum Manor Sandholes 95 70 130 Craigavon Central Bleary 98 66 219 Craigavon Central Drumgask 96 55 467 Craigavon Central Drumgor 73 47 567

Page 63 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table B.1 Turnout and registration rates by Electoral Ward: Local elections May 2005

Registration Turnout District Council DEA Ward % % Rank % % No. Craigavon Central Edenderry 82 67 205 Craigavon Central Kernan 109 62 334 Craigavon Central Killycomain 81 69 145 Craigavon Central Taghnevan 101 64 289 Craigavon Loughside Aghagallon 100 62 321 Craigavon Loughside Court 75 55 484 Craigavon Loughside Derrytrasna 103 68 172 Craigavon Loughside Drumnamoe 85 63 293 Craigavon Loughside Woodville 87 61 363 Craigavon Lurgan Church 80 64 283 Craigavon Lurgan Donaghcloney 103 65 242 Craigavon Lurgan Knocknashane 93 70 143 Craigavon Lurgan Magheralin 105 61 366 Craigavon Lurgan Mourneview 83 65 254 Craigavon Lurgan Parklake 97 62 331 Craigavon Lurgan Waringstown 97 69 157 Craigavon Portadown Annagh 88 57 447 Craigavon Portadown Ballybay 83 60 390 Craigavon Portadown Ballyoran 94 58 418 Craigavon Portadown Brownstown 78 64 266 Craigavon Portadown Corcrain 87 51 528 Craigavon Portadown Tavanagh 85 64 261 Craigavon Portadown The Birches 97 72 102 Derry Cityside Beechwood 86 75 74 Derry Cityside Brandywell 92 68 175 Derry Cityside Creggan Central 93 75 73 Derry Cityside Creggan South 102 76 62 Derry Cityside Westland 90 74 89 Derry Northland Crevagh 99 67 209 Derry Northland Foyle Springs 96 72 108 Derry Northland Pennyburn 90 75 70 Derry Northland Rosemount 78 67 190 Derry Northland Springtown 95 72 110 Derry Northland Strand 59 61 350

Page 64 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table B.1 Turnout and registration rates by Electoral Ward: Local elections May 2005

Registration Turnout District Council DEA Ward % % Rank % % No. Derry Northland The Diamond 82 64 288 Derry Rural Banagher 100 73 98 Derry Rural Claudy 99 63 294 Derry Rural Eglinton 94 62 333 Derry Rural Enagh 107 59 397 Derry Rural Holly Mount 100 67 194 Derry Rural New Buildings 91 71 124 Derry Shantallow Ballynashallog 94 72 107 Derry Shantallow Carn Hill 85 68 164 Derry Shantallow Culmore 98 65 247 Derry Shantallow Shantallow East 91 68 169 Derry Shantallow Shantallow West 96 60 378 Derry Waterside Altnagelvin 88 66 220 Derry Waterside Caw 81 67 211 Derry Waterside Clondermot 103 67 202 Derry Waterside Ebrington 60 58 408 Derry Waterside Kilfennan 88 62 316 Derry Waterside Lisnagelvin 79 66 226 Derry Waterside Victoria 93 64 290 Down Ballynahinch Ballymaglave 84 60 387 Down Ballynahinch Ballynahinch East 86 59 402 Down Ballynahinch Drumaness 100 64 272 Down Ballynahinch Dunmore 101 67 186 Down Ballynahinch Seaforde 98 68 163 Down Downpatrick Ardglass 89 63 306 Down Downpatrick Audley's Acre 94 67 200 Down Downpatrick Ballymote 86 55 489 Down Downpatrick Cathedral 92 56 455 Down Downpatrick Killough 68 60 373 Down Downpatrick Quoile 83 64 268 Down Downpatrick Strangford 95 67 188 Down Newcastle Castlewellan 98 64 275 Down Newcastle Donard 94 62 340 Down Newcastle Dundrum 96 65 241

Page 65 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table B.1 Turnout and registration rates by Electoral Ward: Local elections May 2005

Registration Turnout District Council DEA Ward % % Rank % % No. Down Newcastle Murlough 84 59 403 Down Newcastle Shimna 95 63 297 Down Newcastle Tollymore 94 70 140 Down Rowallane Crossgar 97 62 326 Down Rowallane Derryboy 91 63 309 Down Rowallane Killyleagh 95 57 434 Down Rowallane Kilmore 96 66 221 Down Rowallane Saintfield 96 62 318 Dungannon Blackwater Augher 101 77 50 Dungannon Blackwater Benburb 99 79 32 Dungannon Blackwater Caledon 101 80 26 Dungannon Blackwater Killyman 97 78 34 Dungannon Blackwater Moy 95 72 100 Dungannon Clogher Valley Aughnacloy 99 76 65 Dungannon Clogher Valley Ballygawley 97 77 55 Dungannon Clogher Valley Castlecaulfield 101 78 41 Dungannon Clogher Valley Clogher 95 77 54 Dungannon Clogher Valley Fivemiletown 93 79 29 Dungannon Dungannon Ballysaggart 88 63 295 Town Dungannon Dungannon Coolhill 82 71 128 Town Dungannon Dungannon Drumglass 93 61 368 Town Dungannon Dungannon Killymeal 99 68 165 Town Dungannon Dungannon Moygashel 94 70 132 Town Dungannon Dungannon Mullaghmore 79 64 285 Town Dungannon Torrent Altmore 110 85 3 Dungannon Torrent Coalisland North 103 73 93 Dungannon Torrent Coalisland South 90 63 298 Coalisland West and Dungannon Torrent 99 71 117 Newmill Dungannon Torrent Donaghmore 98 77 51 Dungannon Torrent Washing Bay 112 76 67 Fermanagh Enniskillen Castlecoole 95 67 208 Fermanagh Enniskillen Devenish 79 62 328

Page 66 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table B.1 Turnout and registration rates by Electoral Ward: Local elections May 2005

Registration Turnout District Council DEA Ward % % Rank % % No. Fermanagh Enniskillen Erne 83 62 341 Fermanagh Enniskillen Lisbellaw 92 77 45 Fermanagh Enniskillen Portora 90 63 299 Fermanagh Enniskillen Rossorry 94 62 324 Fermanagh Enniskillen Tempo 101 80 27 Fermanagh Erne East Brookeborough 102 82 11 Fermanagh Erne East Donagh 105 85 4 Fermanagh Erne East Lisnaskea 96 73 92 Fermanagh Erne East Maguires Bridge 99 82 13 Fermanagh Erne East Newtownbutler 100 81 21 Fermanagh Erne East Rosslea 104 85 2 Fermanagh Erne North Ballinamallard 97 78 39 Fermanagh Erne North Belleek and Boa 96 72 103 Fermanagh Erne North Irvinestown 97 63 311 Fermanagh Erne North Kesh Ederney and Lack 94 72 104 Fermanagh Erne North Lisnarrick 94 74 86 Fermanagh Erne West Belcoo and Garrison 100 78 35 Boho Cleenish and Fermanagh Erne West 101 76 60 Letterbre Fermanagh Erne West Derrygonnelly 100 73 97 Fermanagh Erne West Derrylin 97 81 19 Florence Court and Fermanagh Erne West 99 81 17 Kinawley Larne Coast Road Ballyloran 76 46 574 Larne Coast Road Carncastle 99 62 337 Larne Coast Road Carnlough 93 52 524 Larne Coast Road Craigy Hill 82 51 538 Larne Coast Road Glenarm 90 65 250 Larne Larne Lough Antiville 82 48 558 Larne Larne Lough Ballycarry 93 57 448 Larne Larne Lough Glynn 88 58 416 Larne Larne Lough Island Magee 93 58 414 Larne Larne Lough Kilwaughter 110 52 527 Larne Larne Town Blackcave 83 51 532 Larne Larne Town Central 77 50 549 Larne Larne Town Gardenmore 87 60 382

Page 67 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table B.1 Turnout and registration rates by Electoral Ward: Local elections May 2005

Registration Turnout District Council DEA Ward % % Rank % % No. Larne Larne Town Harbour 87 57 431 Larne Larne Town Town Parks 85 55 474 Limavady Bellerena Aghanloo 104 62 320 Limavady Bellerena Ballykelly 91 57 435 Limavady Bellerena Glack 98 71 123 Limavady Bellerena Gresteel 67 61 344 Limavady Bellerena Magilligan 74 66 217 Limavady Benbradagh Dungiven 90 64 269 Limavady Benbradagh Feeny 101 60 391 Limavady Benbradagh Forest 86 68 162 Limavady Benbradagh The Highlands 102 69 150 Limavady Benbradagh Upper Glenshane 110 64 278 Limavady Limavady Town Coolessan 84 54 494 Limavady Limavady Town Enagh 105 62 319 Limavady Limavady Town Greystone 83 52 518 Limavady Limavady Town Rathbrady 91 67 210 Limavady Limavady Town Roeside 79 61 353 Lisburn Downshire Ballymacbrennan 94 69 146 Lisburn Downshire Dromara 101 65 243 Lisburn Downshire Drumbo 96 64 287 Lisburn Downshire Hillsborough 98 65 260 Lisburn Downshire Maze 97 64 292 Lisburn Dunmurry Cross Collin Glen 91 57 430 Lisburn Dunmurry Cross Derryaghy 106 61 371 Lisburn Dunmurry Cross Dunmurry 87 63 313 Lisburn Dunmurry Cross Kilwee 92 67 187 Lisburn Dunmurry Cross Poleglass 84 66 234 Lisburn Dunmurry Cross Seymour Hill 82 64 284 Lisburn Dunmurry Cross Twinbrook 87 60 388 Lisburn Killultagh Ballinderry 95 66 231 Lisburn Killultagh Glenavy 98 61 346 Lisburn Killultagh Knockmore 81 50 546 Lisburn Killultagh Maghaberry 89 65 258 Lisburn Killultagh Moira 99 61 365

Page 68 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table B.1 Turnout and registration rates by Electoral Ward: Local elections May 2005

Registration Turnout District Council DEA Ward % % Rank % % No. Lisburn Town Lisburn Ballymacash 84 64 265 North Lisburn Town Lisburn Ballymacoss 92 57 449 North Lisburn Town Lisburn Harmony Hill 89 62 327 North Lisburn Town Lisburn Lambeg 82 58 419 North Lisburn Town Lisburn Lisnagarvey 88 66 215 North Lisburn Town Lisburn Magheralave 75 62 317 North Lisburn Town Lisburn Wallace Park 57 61 356 North Lisburn Town Lisburn Blaris 92 61 360 South Lisburn Town Lisburn Hilden 79 49 553 South Lisburn Town Lisburn Hillhall 85 59 394 South Lisburn Town Lisburn Lagan Valley 77 53 506 South Lisburn Town Lisburn Old Warren 84 48 559 South Lisburn Town Lisburn Tonagh 81 48 563 South Magherafelt Magherafelt Ballymaguigan 98 79 31 Town Magherafelt Magherafelt Glebe 90 60 385 Town Magherafelt Magherafelt Knockcloghrim 91 77 56 Town Magherafelt Magherafelt Lecumpher 99 74 82 Town Magherafelt Magherafelt Town Parks East 85 66 225 Town Magherafelt Magherafelt Town Parks West 91 68 176 Town Magherafelt Moyola Bellaghy 101 81 18 Magherafelt Moyola Castledawson 82 70 142 Magherafelt Moyola Gulladuff 101 77 52 Magherafelt Moyola Upperlands 94 74 81 Magherafelt Moyola Valley 92 76 58 Magherafelt Sperrin Draperstown 104 76 63 Magherafelt Sperrin Lower Glenshane 102 82 12 Magherafelt Sperrin Maghera 91 75 68 Magherafelt Sperrin Swatragh 106 84 5 Magherafelt Sperrin Tobermore 101 79 28

Page 69 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table B.1 Turnout and registration rates by Electoral Ward: Local elections May 2005

Registration Turnout District Council DEA Ward % % Rank % % No. Moyle Ballycastle Bonamargy and Rathlin 83 58 406 Moyle Ballycastle Dalriada 93 62 329 Moyle Ballycastle Glentaisie 97 56 463 Moyle Ballycastle Kinbane 84 58 405 Moyle Ballycastle Knocklayd 93 59 401 Giant's Moyle Ballylough 92 57 444 Causeway Giant's Moyle Bushmills 81 52 519 Causeway Giant's Moyle Carnmoon 99 58 421 Causeway Giant's Moyle Dunseverick 87 63 308 Causeway Giant's Moyle Moss-side and Moyarget 96 59 396 Causeway Moyle The Glens Armoy 98 54 496 Moyle The Glens Glenaan 87 68 174 Moyle The Glens Glenariff 98 66 233 Moyle The Glens Glendun 95 67 201 Moyle The Glens Glenshesk 89 67 213 Newry and Crotlieve Burren and Kilbroney 105 70 141 Mourne Newry and Crotlieve Clonallan 92 63 300 Mourne Newry and Crotlieve Derryleckagh 98 68 160 Mourne Newry and Crotlieve Mayobridge 100 71 127 Mourne Newry and Crotlieve Rostrevor 97 70 138 Mourne Newry and Crotlieve Seaview 77 64 277 Mourne Newry and Crotlieve Spelga 97 74 85 Mourne Newry and Newry Town Ballybot 84 71 115 Mourne Newry and Newry Town Daisy hill 87 66 214 Mourne Newry and Newry Town Drumalane 93 65 238 Mourne Newry and Newry Town Drumgullion 89 68 168 Mourne Newry and Newry Town St Mary's 81 71 119 Mourne Newry and Newry Town St Patrick's 80 66 218 Mourne Newry and Newry Town Windsor Hill 83 71 125 Mourne

Page 70 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table B.1 Turnout and registration rates by Electoral Ward: Local elections May 2005

Registration Turnout District Council DEA Ward % % Rank % % No. Newry and Slieve Gullion Creggan 116 84 6 Mourne Newry and Slieve Gullion Crossmaglen 104 82 15 Mourne Newry and Slieve Gullion Fathom 99 72 111 Mourne Newry and Slieve Gullion Forkhill 125 74 79 Mourne Newry and Slieve Gullion Silver Bridge 108 77 48 Mourne Newry and The Fews Bessbrook 86 68 177 Mourne Newry and The Fews Camlough 102 77 43 Mourne Newry and The Fews Derrymore 89 65 259 Mourne Newry and The Fews Donaghmore 96 72 109 Mourne Newry and The Fews Newtownhamilton 101 79 33 Mourne Newry and The Fews Tullyhappy 102 74 77 Mourne Newry and The Mournes Annalong 92 70 136 Mourne Newry and The Mournes Binnian 97 73 94 Mourne Newry and The Mournes Kilkeel Central 88 67 183 Mourne Newry and The Mournes Kilkeel South 89 68 178 Mourne Newry and The Mournes Lisnacree 95 77 46 Mourne Newtownabbey Antrim Line Ballyhenry 89 60 379 Newtownabbey Antrim Line Burnthill 86 60 380 Newtownabbey Antrim Line Collinbridge 91 57 429 Newtownabbey Antrim Line Glebe 86 58 415 Newtownabbey Antrim Line Glengormley 76 55 486 Newtownabbey Antrim Line Hightown 86 60 386 Newtownabbey Antrim Line Mallusk 108 56 450 Newtownabbey Ballyclare Ballyclare North 92 54 493 Newtownabbey Ballyclare Ballyclare South 86 50 550 Newtownabbey Ballyclare Ballynure 93 62 332 Newtownabbey Ballyclare Ballyrobert 96 59 395 Newtownabbey Ballyclare Doagh 93 58 407 Newtownabbey Macedon Abbey 86 55 470 Newtownabbey Macedon Cloughfern 88 56 462

Page 71 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table B.1 Turnout and registration rates by Electoral Ward: Local elections May 2005

Registration Turnout District Council DEA Ward % % Rank % % No. Newtownabbey Macedon Coole 83 50 540 Newtownabbey Macedon Dunanney 89 51 531 Newtownabbey Macedon Valley 88 55 488 Newtownabbey Macedon Whitehouse 88 53 512 Newtownabbey University Ballyduff 85 55 485 Newtownabbey University Carnmoney 85 57 422 Newtownabbey University Hawthorne 85 57 439 Newtownabbey University Jordanstown 98 60 389 Newtownabbey University Monkstown 86 52 513 Newtownabbey University Mossley 86 52 521 Newtownabbey University Rostulla 67 54 491 North Down Abbey Bangor Castle 85 54 490 North Down Abbey Bloomfield 93 49 554 North Down Abbey Conlig 100 45 577 North Down Abbey Harbour 76 47 569 North Down Abbey Rathgael 80 52 517 North Down Abbey Whitehill 82 46 572 Ballyholme and North Down Ballycrochan 95 55 479 Groomsport Ballyholme and North Down Ballyholme 87 62 339 Groomsport Ballyholme and North Down Ballymaconnell 89 61 347 Groomsport Ballyholme and North Down Ballymagee 88 54 492 Groomsport Ballyholme and North Down Broadway 90 61 351 Groomsport Ballyholme and North Down Churchill 83 56 454 Groomsport Ballyholme and North Down Groomsport 102 63 312 Groomsport North Down Bangor West Bryansburn 89 62 325 North Down Bangor West Clandeboye 85 48 560 North Down Bangor West Crawfordsburn 96 61 352 North Down Bangor West Dufferin 86 50 545 North Down Bangor West Princetown 91 63 314 North Down Bangor West Silverstream 80 44 580 North Down Bangor West Springhill 91 64 281 North Down Holywood Craigavad 87 60 372

Page 72 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table B.1 Turnout and registration rates by Electoral Ward: Local elections May 2005

Registration Turnout District Council DEA Ward % % Rank % % No. North Down Holywood Cultra 90 60 374 North Down Holywood Holywood Demesne 85 52 516 North Down Holywood Holywood Priory 92 60 381 North Down Holywood Loughview 49 47 565 Omagh Mid Tyrone Beragh 98 76 64 Omagh Mid Tyrone Drumnakilly 107 81 20 Omagh Mid Tyrone Gortin 91 80 23 Omagh Mid Tyrone Killyclogher 93 67 198 Omagh Mid Tyrone Owenkillew 103 87 1 Omagh Mid Tyrone Sixmilecross 100 83 9 Omagh Mid Tyrone Termon 108 83 10 Omagh Omagh Town Camowen 85 64 264 Omagh Omagh Town Coolnagard 108 65 249 Omagh Omagh Town Dergmoney 83 68 180 Omagh Omagh Town Drumragh 84 69 156 Omagh Omagh Town Gortrush 78 62 336 Omagh Omagh Town Lisanelly 56 65 251 Omagh Omagh Town Strule 72 67 196 Omagh West Tyrone Clanabogan 105 76 57 Omagh West Tyrone Dromore 98 83 7 Omagh West Tyrone Drumquin 101 78 36 Omagh West Tyrone Fairy Water 97 80 22 Omagh West Tyrone Fintona 89 68 161 Omagh West Tyrone Newtownsaville 104 82 16 Omagh West Tyrone Trillick 100 83 8 Strabane Derg Castlederg 95 75 69 Strabane Derg Clare 95 78 40 Strabane Derg Finn 90 75 72 Strabane Derg Glenderg 96 74 83 Strabane Derg Newtownstewart 92 69 147 Strabane Glenelly Artigarvan 98 72 101 Strabane Glenelly Dunnamanagh 101 76 66 Strabane Glenelly Plumbridge 95 77 47 Strabane Glenelly Slievekirk 91 73 90

Page 73 Electoral Commission NI Impact of Individual Voter Registration on Turnout at Northern Ireland Elections

Table B.1 Turnout and registration rates by Electoral Ward: Local elections May 2005

Registration Turnout District Council DEA Ward % % Rank % % No. Strabane Glenelly Victoria Bridge 95 75 76 Strabane Mourne Ballycolman 87 69 158 Strabane Mourne East 94 75 75 Strabane Mourne North 97 69 151 Strabane Mourne Sion Mills 84 63 310 Strabane Mourne South 89 68 181 Strabane Mourne West 87 65 248 Note: 1 Local Council elections were not held in this DEA in May 2005. Turnout rates shown are based on the Parliamentary election, held on the same day in May 2005. Source: Derived from data supplied by the EONI.

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