TO 1985 1 DFO Li L~Lilmlifif Lll ~L~~L Lillilillli[Jjieque 14003232
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ANNEX TO THE WORLDWIDE FISHERIES MARKETING STUDY: ..---~~TS TO 1985 1 DFO li l~lilmlifIf lll ~l~~l lillilillli[JJieque 14003232 Government Gouvernement _.-...,.... of Canada du Canada SH 328 F1shenes Peches W6713 and Oceans et Oceans v. 4 Industry, Trade lndustne and Commerce et Commerce (This Report is one of a series of country and species annexes to the main study - entitled the (' 11 erview). D R A F T Annex to the Worldwide Fisheries Marketing Study: Prospects to 1985 HERRING P.M. Jangaard Department of Fisheries and Oceans October 1979 - i - ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The preparation of the Worldwide Fisheries Marketing Study, of which this Report is a part, embodies many hours of work not only by the authors but also and more importantly by those who generously provided us with market information and advice. Specifically, this Report would not have been possible without the cooperation and assistance of fishermen, processors, brokers, wholesalers, distributors, retailers, consumers and their organizations as well as government officials with whom we visited and interviewed. Though too numerous to mention separately, we would like to extend our sincere gratitude and appreciation. The views expressed in this Study, however, are ours alone and reflect the Canadian perception of worldwide markets. With regard to the overall Study, we would like to acknowledge: the encouragement of G.C. Vernon, Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) and C. Stuart, Department of Industry, Trade and Commerce (IT&C); the guidance of the Steering Committee: K. Campbell, Fisheries Cou~cil of Canada; R. Bulmer, Canadian Association of Fish Exporters; R. Merner, IT&C; and J D Puccini (and J. John) DFO; the liaison work of H. Weiler and G. Gagne, IT&C; K. Dormaar and L. Gagnon, DFO; the dedication of the participants from various parts of the industry and government including officers at our diplomatic posts who formed the study teams; the analytical expertise and editorial assistance of K. Hay and his staff, Economix International; the general assistance within DFO provided by the Marketing Services Branch, the graphical services of the Informa tion Services Branch, and the secretarial services of J. Inson. To all of the above, we extend our thanks. E.W. Octobe~, 1979 - ii - FOREWORD As a consequence of global extension of fisheries jurisdictions, a radical shift has taken place in the pattern of worldwide fish supply and demand. This change is still going on and will continue for many years before an equili brium situation is reached. However, in the midst of this re-adjustment, a new trade pattern is emerging -- some net exporting countries are now importing and vice versa. In the longer term, some countries will experience shortages of supply and others will have a surplus. Fortunately, Canada is amongst the latter group. The implications for the marketing of Canadian fisheries products arising from the worldwide introduction of the 200-mile limit are extensive. With our vastly improved supply position relative to world demand, government and industry are understandably concerned about ensuring that the bright promise of increased market opportunities are real and can be fulfilled. One of the steps in this process is the publication of the Worldwide Fisheries Marketing Study which assesses the potential on a country and species basis. Specifically, the purpose of the Study is to identify the short (1981) and longer-term (1985) market opportunities for selected traditional and non-traditional species in existing and prospective markets. In this initial phase, 14 country markets and 8 species groups are analysed. It should be noted that while the information contained in the Reports was up-to-date when collected during March- June 1979, some information may now be dated given the speed with which changes are occurring in the marketplace. In this same vein, the market projections to 1981 and 1985 should be viewed with caution given the present and still evolving re-alignment in the pattern of international fisheries trade, keeping in mind the variability of key factors such as foreign exchange rates, energy costs, bilateral fisheries arrangements and the recently concluded GATT-MTN agreements which have a direct effect on trade flows. Notwithstanding, the findings contained in these Reports represent an important consolidation of knowledge regarding market potential and implications for improve ments in our existing marketing and production practices. - iii - Thus, the results of the Study should usefully serve as a basis for planning fisheries development and marketing activities by both government and industry in order to capitalize on the identified market opportunities. This draft Report is published for discussion purposes and as such we invite your critical comments. Ed Wong Marketing Services Branch Economic Development Directorate Fisheries Economic Development & Marketing Department of Fisheries and Oceans October, 1979 Gttawa - iv - TABLE OF CONTENTS I Summary I I Supply and Demand 5 I I I Herring Markets and Canadian Export Potential 7 1. General 7 2. The United States 9 3. Federa 1 Re pub 1i c of Germany 10 4. Japan 18 5. United Kingdom 22 6. France 23 7. Netherlands 24 8. Sweden 27 9. Norway 29 10. Belgium 29 11 . Finland 30 12. Denmark 32 13. Caribbean Countries 33 14. Other Countries 33 APPENDIX A - The World Herring Resource 34 APPENDIX B - Herring Products 52 - 1 - I SUMMARY The worldwide supply shortage of herring is expected to continue for several years, and the market outlook for good quality Canadian herring products is good for the near future. Prices levelled off in 1978 but could strengthen in 1979 if predicted supply shortages materialize. Tables I and II summarize the marketing outlook for Canadian herring products in 1981 and 1985. These figures are estimates only based on information available in the spring of 1979. The 1981 predictions in dicate that Canadian fishermen and processors should be able to market the total Canadian catch in traditional markets in that year. Some recovery of European stocks is expected by 1985, and some new markets will have to be developed in order to enable processors to market the total catch expected for that year. These additional markets could be developed by the industry in western countries,or Japan,or through government involvement in Eastern European countries. The traditional herring consuming countries will continue to im port from Canada for several years, especially if quality and grading is im proved. The United States and Western Europe are the best markets for Canadian food herring products and Japan is expected to purchase any amount of roe produced on the West Coast. Even when European stocks of herring start recovering, Canada is expected to have a price advantage due to the high energy and processing costs in Europe. The low value of the Canadian dollar relative to European currencies is presently giving Canadian exporters an additional advantage which is expected to continue for some time. A number of assumptions made in preparing Tables I and II follow, and a further dis~ussion of each market can be found in Seetion I I I. HERRING FORECAST 1981 TABLE I Vinegar Spice-, Cured Sugar- Fresh , Frozen , Fi 11 ets Pickled Cured Whole Whole Whole Split Pickled or or Frozen or or Whole or Dressed Dressed Fillets Smoked Dressed Fillets Dressed Canned Sardines TOTAL Roe Meal Oil Cana.da 200 2,400 2,600 U.S .A . 21 ,000 2, 000 300 l ,500 5,000 6,000 l ,200 2,400 39,400 9,000 3,500 W. Germany 6,000 28,000 5, 000 l ,500 l ,400 41,900 Japa n 5,000 5,000 5,000 Netherlands 6,000 2,000 500 8,500 United Kingdom 4,000 4,000 200 500 l ,000 9,700 l ,000 France l ,800 4,500 500 6,800 Belgium/ Lu xemburg 800 l ,500 2,300 Sweden 1,500 3,000 5,000 500 N Denmark 200 200 Norway 2,000 200 2,200 Finl and l 00 l ,500 1,600 S. Korea 2,000 2,000 Caribb. Countries 3,000 I 100 3, 100 Others 200 500 100 200 200 l,200 200 Product wt . 21 ,000 27,800 42,800 4,500 11 ,500 10,200 8,900 4,800 5,000 136 ,500 5,000 10,000 3,700 Conversion l l 2. l 2.2 2.7 2.3 1.4 1.6 2. 5 10 Factors Landed wt. 21,000 27,800 89,880 11,000 31 ,050 23,460 12,460 7,680 12,500 235,730 50,000 HERRING FORECAST 1985 TABLE- -- II Vinegar Sp1ce-, Cured Sugar- Fresh, Frozen, Fillets Pickled Cured Whole Whole Whole Split Pickled or or Frozen or or Whole or Dressed Dressed Fillets Smoked Dressed Fillets Dressed Canned Sardines TOTAL Roe Meal Oil Canada 500 2,600 3,100 U.S.A. 20,000 2,000 3,000 2,000 7,500 7,000 1 ,000 2,400 44,900 9,000 W. Germany 6,000 20,000 5,000 1,500 1 ,400 33,900 Japan 5,000 5,000 7,000 Netherlands 4,00() 1,000 5,000 United 4,000 1,000 Kingdom 2,000 2,000 France 1,000 2,500 700 4,200 Belgium/ 1 ,000 1,000 Luxemburg w Sweden 500 1 ,500 2,000 4,000 Denmark 200 200 Norway --- Finland 1 ,500 1,500 S. Korea 2,000 2,000 Caribb. 3,000 Countries 3,000 Others 200 500 200 300 200 1,400 Product wt. 20,000 22,200 30,000 5,000 13,900 ll ,000 6, 100 5,000 5,000 118,200 7,000 10,000 3,500 Conversion 1 1 2.