San Francisco Condominiums Market Activity March 2015 CONTENTS State of Development
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San Francisco Condominiums Market Activity March 2015 CONTENTS State of Development . 2 Market Performance . 3 Currently Selling . 4 Recently Sold-out & Resale . 9 NEW Upcoming Developments . 21 Development Pipeline and Projections . 23 . About Vanguard Properties Developer Services . 25 REPORT NOTES The most recent available data has been used, with data from February 2014/2015 used for month- over-month figures . Below Market Rate (BMR) units and senior housing have been omitted from clos- ings and statistics . Note that It can take a few months before closings appear in the records . While the Report focuses on condominiums, select information on apartments is presented as well . PG.1 SAN FRANCISCO CONDOMINIUMS MARKET ACTIVITY MARCH 2015 STATE OF DEVELOPMENT There are just 700 new condominiums available, and Lumina accounts for over 60 percent of the available inventory . As Lumina is achieving record-setting pricing, there is a growing voice of con- cern over a lack of affordable housing production . Consequently, developers are offering up more in the way of Below Market Units and in-lieu fees . Some developers are attempting to develop projects which are “affordable by design”, by creating smaller units, sometimes referred to as micro-units or efficiency units . There is also a growing trend towards dedicating less space to parking, by way of parking stackers and fewer overall parking spaces . Because of recent changes to City development guidelines, developers are offering more bicycle parking, often one space per unit . Retail leasing at new mixed-use condominium developments continues to be challenging, with some storefronts remaining vacant for months, if not years . The race toward grander amenity packages and higher quality unit finishes continues to propel pricing trends, and is a central point of competition amongst new developments . Month-Over-Month Year-Over-Year Currently New Construction $/SqFt Down 2% Up 9% $1,172/SqFt Resale $/SqFt Up 7% Up 15% $1,014/SqFt DEVELOPMENT NEWS... Summit 800 has moved on to its 5th release, with approximately 40 units now under contract . All market rate units are sold-out at 870 Harrison, Amero, 35 Dolores and The San Francisco Shipyard. Lumina is reporting approximately 220 units in-contract . Absorption measures at about 40 units a month . Price per square foot averages at about $1,400 . A 15,000 square foot, two-floor penthouse was recently introduced at $49,000,000 . Mission@1875 is nearly sold out, with approximately 10 market rate units available . Vida is nearly sold-out, reporting a price per square foot of approximately $1,090 . PG.2 SAN FRANCISCO CONDOMINIUMS MARKET ACTIVITY MARCH 2015 MARKET PERFORMANCE Resale condominium pricing is up by approximately 30% year-over-year, while sales volume is down nearly 50% . Apartment pricing is approximately 18% higher year-over-year . These dramatic changes result from chronically low supply, coupled with steadfast demand . It is reasonable to expect contin- ued upward pressure on pricing in the near term . NEW CONDOMINIUM PRICING & VOLUME Median Price & Sales Volume Most Recent Month $1,600,000 60 Median Sale Price: $1,144,500 $1,400,000 50 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 40 Number of Units Sold: 6 $800,000 30 $600,000 20 $400,000 Number Sold Median Sales Price $200,000 10 $0 0 Median Sales Price # Sold RESALE CONDOMINIUM PRICING & VOLUME Median Price & Sales Volume Most Recent Month $1,400,000 300 Median Sale Price: $1,200,000 $1,200,000 250 $1,000,000 200 Number of Units Sold: 84 $800,000 150 $600,000 100 $400,000 Number Sold Median Sales Price $200,000 50 $0 0 Median Sale Price # Sold APARTMENT PRICING Average Price Most Recent Month $4,250 $4,150 Average List Price: $4,021/month $4,050 $3,950 $3,850 $3,750 $3,650 $3,550 Average Price List Average $3,450 $3,350 $3,250 PG.3 SAN FRANCISCO CONDOMINIUMS MARKET ACTIVITY MARCH 2015 DEVELOPMENT SNAPSHOT Currently Selling LUMINA 201 Folsom Street at Beale | South Beach 656 units: One 42-story tower, one 37-story tower and two 8-story podiums Developer: Tishman Speyer (China Vanke – equity partner) Architect: Bernardo Fort-Brescia of Arquitectonica Date on market: September 2014 First closings anticipated: Q3 2015 Status: 220 units in-contract, Approximate absorption: 40 units/ month Amenities: 10,500 SqFt rooftop with vegetable garden/dining/fire pits/movie screening, 7,000 SqFt fitness center with yoga studio/ aerobics room/20-foot climbing wall, lounge with fireplace/bar, private dining room with chef’s kitchen/prep kitchen/fireplace/out- door terrace, screening room with tiered seating for thirty/surround sound, 75-foot lap pool, library with WIFI, 2,000 SqFt spa with treatment room/day lockers/steam room/sauna, children’s room, music practice room, pet grooming station, on-site gourmet grocer Features & Finishes: 9’ to 10’10” ceilings, Bay views, Gaggenau ovens/cooktops, Bosch refrigerators/dishwashers, Caesarstone quartz countertops/backsplashes, SieMatic cabinetry, marble van- ity counter tops, porcelain tile bathroom floors/shower walls, Nest Thermostats Unit Mix & Pricing Summary (Currently Selling) Number of Unit Type Units Size Range Price Range Studio/Jr. 1-Bedroom 16 650 - 870 SqFt $850K - $950K 1 - Bedroom 200 850 - 1,400 SqFt $1.1M - $1.7M 2 - Bedroom 373 1,180 - 1,600 SqFt $1.5M - $3.5M 3 - Bedroom 67 1,700 - 2,650 SqFt $3.2M - $6M PG.4 SAN FRANCISCO CONDOMINIUMS MARKET ACTIVITY MARCH 2015 DEVELOPMENT SNAPSHOT Currently Selling 16th & BRYANT 2421-2425 16th Street at Bryant | Mission Status: 10 in-contract, 0 closed, 12 units total Date on market: January 2015 Project info: 4-stories, 1 BMR, 12 parking spaces, HOA: $490 - $650 Finishes: Living areas with white oak hardwood floors, Patios with Eleganza quartzite pavers, Kitchens with Liebherr HCB 30 inch fully integrated refrigerator & freezer, Bertazzoni Master Series 30-inch 4-burner gas range Unit Mix & Pricing Summary (Currently Selling) Number of Unit Type Units Size Range Price Range 2 - Bedroom 10 1,021-1,228 SqFt $999,000 - $1,299,000 3 - Bedroom 2 1,890-1,900 SqFt $1,325,000 - $1,425,000 MISSION@1875 1875 Mission Street at 15th | Mission Status: 18 in-contract, 7 closed, 39 units total, Average $/SqFt: $1,055 Date on market: October 2014 First closings: February 2015 Developer: M1875 LLC Project info: 4-stories, 6 BMRs, 24 parking spaces, HOA $400- $520 Amenities: Rooftop pool, dog run Finishes: Ann Sacks/Porcelanosa tile, hardwood floors, frosted glass walls, Blanco faucets, Bertazzoni microwaves/ranges, Leibherr refrigerators, brass entry doors, Heath Ceramics house numbers, radiant heated floors Closing Details Unit Type SqFt Parking Closing Price $/SqFt Closing Date Mission@1875 - 108 0/1 620 0 $589,000 $950 2/27/2015 Mission@1875 - 206 0/1 626 0 $619,000 $989 2/27/2015 Mission@1875 - 211 1/1 799 1 $775,000 $970 2/27/2015 Mission@1875 - 212 2/1 804 1 $867,000 $1,078 2/27/2015 Mission@1875 - 309 1/1 804 1 $899,000 $1,118 2/27/2015 Mission@1875 - 306 0/1 620 0 $650,000 $1,048 2/25/2015 Mission@1875 - 304 1/1 751 1 $901,200 $1,200 2/20/2015 PG.5 SAN FRANCISCO CONDOMINIUMS MARKET ACTIVITY MARCH 2015 DEVELOPMENT SNAPSHOT Currently Selling SUMMIT 800 800 Brotherhood Way at Junipero Serra | Park Merced Status: 40 in-contract, 0 closed, 182 total units, Approximate absorption: 5 units/month Developer: Comstock Homes & Maracor Development Project info: Townhomes and single family homes, 2-3 car parking, HOA: $205 - $760 Date on market: July 2014 Amenities: HOA maintained front yard landscaping, adjacent to two- acre park with tot lot/dog area Features and Finishes: Decks, walk-in closets, Copper Creek polished chrome door hardware, Emser ceramic tile floors, Crema Marfil master bath floors, Superior Shaw stain-resistant carpet, Andersen windows and sliding doors, granite kitchen countertops and backsplash, Viking appliances, Kohler sinks and tubs, Delta faucets, powder rooms in each floor plan, Piedrafina bathroom countertops and surrounds, 1 .5 KW solar system, tank-less water heaters Unit Mix & Pricing Summary (Currently Selling) Number of Unit Type Units Size Range Price Range 3 - Bedroom 182 1,547 - 2,133 SqFt $979K - 1.675M TOWNHOMES ON THIRD 4132 3rd Street at Innes | Bayview Status: 6 in-contract, 0 closed, 7 total units Date on market: January 2015 First closings: February 2015 Developer: Seiko Construction, Inc . Architect: Alan Martinez Project info: 4-stories, 7 parking spaces, HOA: $640 - $700 Finishes: Quartz counter tops, Glass tile backsplash, Blanco and Hans- grohe fixtures, Wide-plank hardwood floors, Security systems Unit Mix & Pricing Summary (Currently Selling) Number of Unit Type Units Size Range Price Range 2 - Bedroom 3 1,314 - 1,432 SqFt $915K - $925K 3 - Bedroom 4 1,391 SqFt $899K - $935K PG.6 SAN FRANCISCO CONDOMINIUMS MARKET ACTIVITY MARCH 2015 DEVELOPMENT SNAPSHOT Currently Selling VIDA 2558 Mission Street at 22nd | Mission Status: 61 in-contract, 43 closed, 114 total units, Approximate absorption: 10 units/month, Average $/SqFt: $1,093 Date on market: March 2014 First closings: January 2015 Developer: Oyster Development Architect: Kwan Hemni Project info: 8-stories, off-site BMRs, 77 parking spaces, HOA: $430 - $620 Amenities: Roof terrace with BBQ, lounge area Finishes: Bosch and Bertazzoni appliances, quartz counter tops, exposed concrete ceilings and columns, porcelain tile bathroom floors Closing Details Unit Type SqFt Parking Closing Price $/SqFt Closing Date Vida - 402 1/1 816 1 $799,000 $979 2/17/2015 Vida - 315 0/1 494 0 $579,000 $1,172 1/30/2015 Vida - 307 2/2 916 1 $917,000 $1,001