Cellular service providers, handset manufacturers, and system integrators are captivated by the promise of the wireless Internet, as this second of two articles on the subject makes clear Cell phones Internet's c

WILLIAM SWEET, Senior Editor

THE BIG NEWS IN THIRD-GENERATION CELLULAR telephony is that the future is arriving ahead of schedule. Until recently, wireless systems providing good Internet access and even some multimedia capa- bilities seemed a remote prospect, maybe even an illusion. Now suddenly they are about to be reality. Their early arrival may especially surprise people in the United States, who are still struggling to sort out the pros and cons of the first- and sec- ond-generation wireless systems-the analog Advanced Mobile Phone Service (AMPS),the mainly digital time- and code-division mirltiple access (TDMA and CDMA) systems, and Global System for Mobile Communi- cations (GSM) [see "Defining third-generation cellular terms," p. 451. But the news may be less startling in Europe and in the 70 or so countries elsewhere now relying entirely or mainly on GSM, the digital TDMA-based system devised by European standards authorities in the 1980s and '90s.

ITU VISION GETS GREEN LIGHT Basically, the leading contender to be the global standard for third-gen- eration cellular telephony is the Universal Mobile Telecommunication System (UMTS).This is a wideband CDMA system designed to be smoothly back- ward-compatible with CSM, and also the leading member of the IMT-2000 family of third-generation systems sponsored by the International Tele- communication Union (ITU),in Geneva. The IMT-2000 family of third-generation standards received a dorrble en- dorsement in May, at meetings of the ITU's governing assembly and the World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC-2000),held in Istanbcil. At the hegin- ning of the month, the assembly formally ratified the technical specifica-

[I]Internet access is provided by the white cell phone, a D series i-Mode phone manufactured by Tokyo's Mitsubishi Electric Corp. as a preferred supplier to NlT DoCoMo. On the screen, the tabs at the bottom are [from left] for Back, Select, and Sub-menu. The list above the tabs provides links to stock prices, weather, travel and gourmet, news, "friendship," and events.

42 0018-9235/001$10.00Q2000 IEEE IEEE SPECTRUM AUGUST 2000 tions for the "air interface'' or radio component of the proposed asscnibled delegates, in the final analysis, were developments systems. The specs cover Europe's UMTS system, cdma2000, and in the real telephone world. a TDMA system enhanced for delivery of packet data, UWC- 1 36. As the attendees gathered in carly May, anybody involved This last is promoted by the Universal Wireless Communications in the IMT-2000 talks had to have vividly in mind the astound- Consortium (UWCC),Bellevtic, Wash., a consortkin1 of 130 coin- ing numbers wracked up by the i-MODE wireless Internet sys- panies in which ATaT Corp. is a leading player. tem in Japan [Fig. 11. Its producer, NTT DoCoMo, in thc two The radio interface for UMTS is called the universal terres- years sincc bcing spun off by the national telecommunications trial radio-access frequency-division duplex (UTRA-FDD),or company NTT! had itself become thc country's most highly cap- more conveniently, wideband CDMA (WCDMA).As the name italized company. And in the 15 months since it launched implies, it requires a wider frequency band than second-gener- i-MODE, about seven million subscribers had signed up. Roughly ation systems. The competing U.S.systems for the third gen- $15 per month, about 25 percent more than their regular phone eration aim to achieve somewhat comparable data rates within bill, gets them the privilege of being able to access a limited nuni- existing bandwidth. ber of customized Web sites or exchange short text messages Givcn that the radio interfacc specifications had largely been with colleagues or friends. Multiplying out and extrapolating formttlated and finalized wcll before the Istanbul contcrence, their those Japanesc numbers suggest that wireless Internet sub- cndorsemcnt by the ITU's Radiocomniitinicatioiis Assembly on thc scribership is hound to exceed ITU projections on which spec- eve of this year's WRC-2000 was perhaps a formality. More sig- trum nccds were based. nificant, perhaps, was the identification by the conference of three Meanwhile, in countries like Italy and Britain, also world mar- new frequency bands for IMT-2000. In technical preparations ket leaders in wireless telephony, similar gains have been scored by for the main meeting, expert groups had concluded that about providers of short message service (SMS). In Britain, in particular, 160 MHz of new spectrum would be needed Tor the tcrrestrial transmission of short messages over cell phone networks has become components of IMT-2000to accommodate expected growth in wildly popular, "as chatty teenagers and traveling workers catch up third-generation wireless tclephony from now to 201O. with a fashion alrcady well established in Gcrinany and Italy,'' What the Istanbul confercnce did, in effect, was designate Reuters reportcd. One year after the short mcssage service was three alternative bands with a total of 519 MHz of spectmm- introduced in Britain, 400 million messages were being sent per about three times what was called for-leaving it to further tech- month, and across all of Europe, the numbcr was two billion. nical studies and national telecom authorities to decidc what por- A coirple of years ago it might have seemed implausible that tions of which bands would be used first for IMT-2000 people would happily surf the Net and exchange e-mail mes- applications, and where. The frequency bands "identified are sages lrom their cell phones, despite the tiny screens and awk- 806-960 MHz, 1710-1 885 MHz, and 2500-2690 MHz. Since the systems favored by the United States do not require as much new bandwidth, thc conference's allocation of ample new bandwidth for IMT-2000 would sccin to clearly imply a prcfer- ence for UMTS-UTRA the wideband CIIMA svsteni. No doubt this is one reason why the huge U.S. ' delegation at Istanbul strtiggled persistently, but with little success, for language that would ded- icate the new bands not to IMT-2000in par- ticular but to "advanced communications appli- cations" in general. That formulation could mean just about any- thing, so it inet with skcpticism, even bewil- derment, among other delegations. The United States got half-hearted support from a handful of developing countries and some odd bedfel- lows like Russia and Israel. The only strong sup- porter was South Africa, which would like to use the additional spectrum to provide wireless telcphony to fixcd receivers, as an alternative to conventional wired telephony. The Chinese unequivocally supportcd IMT-2000, complain- ing only that the bands identified werc incon- venient for them.

REAL-WORLD DEVELOPMENTS To someone watching delegations from some 150 countrics hammer out detailed technical text at the Istanbul conference, speaking a multiplicity of languages with varying levels of skill, and meeting in sessions that often convened early in the morning and went past midnight, it was amazing that the conference ever reached agreement on any- thing. Yet if the adoption of the IMT-2000 [21 A futuristic Nokia cell phone displays a sample radio specifications was a formality, so, too, Web page from CNN News. The flap [at left] folds in a sense was the identification of the new down to reveal the keypad-better suited for access- frequency bands. For what was swaying the ing data than entering more than a short message.

43 3rd generation

2nd generation

131 The two main migration paths to third-generation cellular tele- phony are, by way of the General Packet Radio System (GPRS), from the dominant Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) or time-division multiple access (TDMA). GPRS is being deployed now and gives specially equipped cell phone users some graphics capabilities. An alternative migration path, from IS-95 to a version of wider- band CDMA called cdma2000, is also by way of a packet-switched system, 15-958. For definitions of acronyms, see facing page ["De- fining .. ."].

ward keypad [Fig. 21. Now, people are On Thursday, 27Apri1, a week before the much the big telecom companies would unmistakably doing so, and in amazingly four-week WRC-2000 conference opened for have to pay for wireless licenses, the stocks large numbers. business in Istanbul, Britain concluded an auc- of the companies tumbled, dusting some of What's more, among service providers tion of spectrum for wideband third-gener- the bloom off third-generation prospects. and equipment manufacturers, the buzz is ation cellular systems. The sum reaped was Some bidders dropped out in the Nether- about how wireless telephony is opening $35.5 billion-10 times what had been ex- lands and Germany, deciding that prices the door to a new kind of Internet, in which pected when the bidding began eight weeks were going too high. All the same, the basic time and location will be all-important. before. The biggest single bid, nearly $9.5bil- impression rcmained that wireless Internet This is the kind of scenario they like to lion, came from VodaphoneAirTouch PLC, is coming fast, like it or not and regardless conjure up: you are arriving late Friday the British wireless giant that recently de- of cost. evening in a new city for a weekend's explo- voured Mannesmann AGs cellular business, The U.S. Federal Communications Com- ration. Knowing as soon as you use your forming Europe's most highly capitalized mission (FCC) was to hold an auction at phone where you are and what time it is, company. For this particular license, Voda- the end of July, on the 26th, but its pros- your cell service provider gives you, during phone beat out British Telecommunications pects were clouded by what in hindsight your cab ride to your hotel, a list of your PLC, another big player, in Europe and glob- may have been missteps. Unlike the many dinner options, as you unpack, it will show ally, in wireless telephony. countries that have set aside spectrum for you a video tour of what you can see tomor- third-generation systems, the commission row. Then, when you are returning to work LUCRATIVE SPECTRUM AUCTIONS was re-auctioning frequency bands that it on Monday, you can review your appoint- The British windfall, characterized by The sold in the mid-'90s for advanced personal ments as you ride to your office, and the Ecommirt magazine as maybe the biggest communications services (PCS).That sale moment you sit down, you can be party on since North Sea oil began gushing, naturally reflected a vision of the evolution of next- your phone to a live video conference. got the attention of finance officials around generation cellular telephony that is some- That, roughly, is the main text used by the world, above all in other European coun- what different from what is embodied in backers of third-generation telephony to tries planning similar auctions. Italy and the Ih4T-2000 family of standards. Anyway, introduce the new world it will bring. The France immediately revised plans originally by the time this issue of IEEE Spectrum ap- subtext is less obtrusive but still quite audi- formulated mainly to protect domestic man- pears, the FCC will have resold a 30-MHz ble: when it comes to Internet and multi- ufacturers. In Germany, the new expectation band in 1O-MHz slots, with results that are media wireless telephony, the emergent was that it would reap as much as $50 bil- likely to be less dramatic than those wit- leaders are Europe and Asia, while the lion in an auction to be held at the end of nessed in Britain and Germany. United States clings to legacy technology July (as this issue went to press). The FCC has scheduled a second auc- and the habits of bygone days. As investors began to grasp just how tion for September, in which it will sell 12

44 IEEE SPECTRUM AUGUST 2000 licenses-half consisting of IO-MHz, half small but fast-growing inarket share. There the IMT-2000 decisions taken. The TDMA of 20-MHz slots. It has suspended normal are about 22 million subscribers using system used by AT&Tin the United States limits on the number of licenses that can be TDMA systems in the United States and and promoted by the I30 members of the bought by a single purchaser, as well as local about 50 million worldwide, while about UWCC consortium is evolving more or less limits on the proportion of spectrum that 250 million rely on GSM. [See. Fig. 3 for in parallel with GSM, and by design. can he held by a single owner. migration paths from TDMA and GSM.] WCDMA and TDMA are in a sense "kiss- Obviously, U.S. communications com- ing cousins," as Ritch Blasi, a spokesman for THE UNITED STATES IN ISTANBUL panies have made big investments in exist- AThT Wireless Systems, Bellevuc, Wash., The spectrum the U.S.commission auc- ing systems, notably the TDMA and nar- piit it to Spectrum. Both currently are incor- tioned in the mid-'90s was the band of rowband CDMA that lead in the Americas; porating technology associated with the 1850-1 990 MHz, which partly overlaps but they are distant seconds globally. That, General Packet Radio System (GPRS), to spectrum where WCDMA is likely to be together with the fact that some of the spec- provide bit-rates of 40-60 kb/s on not very first deployed in Europe and Japan. It also trum identified at Istanbul for IMT-2000 complex terminals, and yield some graph- somewhat overlaps the lower part of one of already was committed in the United States ics capabilities. And both arc due in a few the additional bands identified at WRC- to other applications, accounts to some ex- years to incorporate EDGE technology as 2000 for IMT-2000. Thus it is only semi- tent for the reluctance of the U.S.delega- well, which will double normal bit-rates and available for third-generation systems, noted tion to earmark the additional bandwidth triple peak bit-rates. (In its European version, Nelson Sollenberger, who is division man- exclusively to the IMT-2000 family. EDGE is spelled out in as "enhanced data ager for Wireless Systems Research at ATkT "Our proposal was a hard-fought con- rates for GSM evolution."The preferred U.S. Labs, Newman Springs, N.J. promise to satisfy various U.S.interests," a version is 'I.. .for global evolution.") Assessing the impact of the earlier auction, senior member of the U.S. delegation told Blasi argues that, under normal operat- Sollenberger said that the spectrum allot- IEEE Spectrum. "Those include PCS providers ing conditions, TDMA-EDGE bit-rates will ted to PCS did indeed make wireless services who are interested in evolution of second- be on a par with those attainable with much more available. But "the technologies generation systems, IMT-2000 proponents UMTS without requiring extra-widc spec- put into use were already used for cellular ser- who were interested in obtaining as much tral bands to get the job done. That is, vices, so the new spectrum did not result in additional spectrum as possible, multichan- TDMA-EDGEwill also be able to attain the fundamentally new technologies. Primarily nel multipoint distribution service (MMDS) rate of 384 kb/s set for UMTS where the it provided enough spectrum for existing ser- interests, and U.S.government Lisers. user is moving (not too fast), and derived vice operators to expand and for new oper- "Our view remains," the senior delegate from ISDN (Integrated-Services Digital ators to enter the market. The GSM, TDMA, said, "that if 1MT-2000as we know it evolves Network) standards. As for the 2-Mb/s rate and CDMA technologies deployed all ex- to some other technology, or a new technol- that UMTS is supposed to provide to sta- isted prior to the PCS spectrum auction." ogy comes along, regulators and the ITU tionary users wanting multimedia capabili- The United States is almost unique in should not be a barrier to those technolo- ties, "well sure," said Blasi, "that's one per- having substantial cellular infrastructures gies being deployed." son, standing under a cell tower." TDMA- based on both code- and time-division mul- That said, one major set of U.S. interests EDGE can make the same claims, but only tiple-access, with GSM accounting for a would seem not deeply incompatible with for ideal laboratory conditions. Sollenberger agrees. As he sees it, the ticated the applications that get incorpo- Lrnsuccessfully tried to talk the other wide bands identified for IMT-2000 are jus- rated into those other wireless phones, the American states into calling for no new tified more by anticipated increases in data more it is going to cost you. spectnrm for IMT-2000. And when it failed traffic than by a crucial need for extra-wide That point of view seemed at Istanbul to at that, it tried at WRC-2000-again with- channel bands, as such. be generally held by the European and out much success-to have language refer But if that is so, and if TDMA-EDGE is Asian leaders who hammered out the IMT- to advanced applications generally rather a viable competitor to UMTS and recog- 2000 compromise [Fig. 41. If it holds true, than IMT-2000 specifically. nized as a member of the IMT-2000 family, the United States may ultimately have to From the U.S. point of view, does any of why then did the USdelegation at Istanbul adapt to the GSM-UMTS system being that matter much? Perhaps it does. For one fight so hard for generic language not link- adopted eveiywhere else. thing, the U.S. position seemed to send a ing the new frequency allocations specifically signal to U.S. manufacturers and service z to IMT-2000? According to people associ- z providers that they might profitably con- ated with the delegation, the rationale for its tinue to work along many technical lines, position was ultimately ideological. For some while the rest of the world is signaling that 10 years, the United States had argued in all efforts should be concentrated on the such situations that policy decisions should IMT-2000 systems. What is more, pur- as much as possible be technology-neutral chasers of systems may now prefer the com- and the market should decide. panies that are seen indeed to be concen- trating their efforts. LOOKING INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL Days after WRC-2000, China's second Besides GSM-EDGE and TDMA-EDGE largest telephone operator, China Unicom, looking to evolve into third-generation sys- ditched a deal it had with Qualcomm Inc., tems, there also is narrowband CDMA. In San Diego, Calif., to deploy the company's the form of cdma2000, it seeks to provide [4] Alan Jamieson, a NewZealand spectrum narrowband CDMA technology. Instead, capabilities comparable to the IMT-2000 consultant based in Auckland, chaired the the Chinese will stick with their current family members in their more modest ver- working group at WRC-2000 that forged a GSM technology and then move more sions. It may indeed be that a decade from global consensus on third-generation cel- directly to wideband CDMA. now the United States will still be using lular telephony. A month later South Korea's three lead- three systems-the third-generation ver- ing wireless providers announced essentially sions of TDMA, CDMA, and GSM-and the same decision. And, as this article goes that the rest of the world will have adopted SIGN OF THE TIMES? to press, Deutsche Telekom is reported to the GSM descendant, UMTS. Given that the rcst of the world is bent have offered $30 billion for VoiccStream This pretty much was the vision offered on early introduction of IMT-2000 systems, Wireless, a company recently formed in the up by Gail Schoettler, the head of the U.S. mainly in the form of Europe's UMTS, lead- United States to provide a GSM-based cel- delegation at Istanbul, who told more than ers of the U.S. delegation argue they did lular service nationally. + one press conference that the cell phone she well to have any impact on the debate at now carries switches between GSM and all. Rather than sulking on the sidelines, TO PROBE FURTHER non-GSM bands. Why should she not, they managed to get language incorporated The competing third-generation technologies 10 years from now, be carrying a phone that into the key documents guaranteeing reg- are described, in depth, by Malcolm W. Oli- switches between UMTS, TDMA-EDGE, ulatory neutrality as between the various phant in "The Mobile Phone Meets the Inter- and cdma2OOO? frequency bands identified for IMT-2000. net," /€€€ Spectrum, August 1999, pp. 20-28. Things may well work out that way, espe- In addition, they obtained language that In another Spectrum article, which appeared cially if cell phone usage remains different, assured that newly identified spectrum in October 1998, Billy Johnston described the and less demanding, in the U.S. environment could be used flexibly. IMT-20001UMTS systems: "Europe's Future from that in Europe and Asia. On those con- It bears noting, moreover, that the United Mobile Telephony System," pp. 49-53. tinents, where business people and tourists States operates at something of a disadvan- travel frequently among countries, it is a col- tage in ITU meetings. The Asian and espe- The fundamentals of time- and code-division ossal and often crippling inconvenience to cially the European groups prepare and access (TDMA and CDMA) are laid out in the deal with the fixed telephone network in coordinate their positions carefully in January 1998 issue of Spectrum, "Communi- unfamiliar languages. Especially in an emer- advance, and when issues reach the confer- cations," pp. 29-36. gency, being able to communicate in writ- ence floor, many countries in each group ing on a handheld device can be a life-saver. can speak to advance their causes. The For more in-depth technical background, includ- In the giant U.S. market, where almost United States, with just one voice and one ing the histories of standards, see three Artech everyone speaks the same language and vote, has less clout-yet, since the size of House books: Wideband CDMA for Third many people never leave, the advantages of its delegation is similar to that of combined Generation Mobile Communications, edited by bypassing the fixed network and conduct- delegations representing whole country Tero Ojampera and Ramjee Prasad (Boston and ing much business in writing are not quite groups, it leaves the impression of being a London, 1998). Universal Wireless Personal the same. gigantic monolith. Communications, by Ramjee Prasad (1998). But there also is a compelling counter- Nonetheless, the delegation also left an Understanding WAP: Wireless Applications, argument. Members of U.S. businesses are impression at Istanbul that it was being Devices, and Services, edited by Marcel van der operating in an ever more global environ- dragged along kicking and screaming into Heijden and Marcus Taylor (2000). ment, which place an ever-greater premium the new world of third-generation wireless, on seamless transitions from one language while just about everybody else enthusias- A more detailed report on the WRC-2000 con- and culture to another. If every other per- tically endorsed the idea of a single world ference, describing both its political chemistry son in that environment is using a differ- standard for the wireless Internet. After all, and technical substance, is available on the ent wireless technology from yours, it is at a preparatory meeting less than a year /€€E Spectrum Web site at: www.spectrum. going to cost you. And the more sophis- before WRC-2000, the United States had ieee.org/special/wrc2OOO/index2. html.

46 IEEE SPECTRUM AUGUST 2000