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Valuación De Starbucks Corporation Universidad de San Andrés Escuela de Administración y Negocios Maestría en Finanzas Valuación de Starbucks Corporation Autor: Alejandro J. Ceroleni DNI: 32.100.194 Director de Tesis: Javier P. Epstein Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires, Diciembre de 2016 Maestría en Finanzas Tesis de Valuación Año 2016 Alejandro Javier Ceroleni Contenido Definiciones, aclaraciones y abreviaciones ................................................................................... 3 Resumen ejecutivo ........................................................................................................................ 5 Descripción del negocio ................................................................................................................ 6 Clasificación de las ventas por tipo de producto ...................................................................... 6 Cadena de valor ......................................................................................................................... 7 Clasificación de las ventas por segmento operativo ................................................................. 8 Clasificación de las ventas según el modelo de crecimiento .................................................... 9 Creación de valor .................................................................................................................... 10 Historia de Starbucks .............................................................................................................. 11 Howard Schultz: visión e influencia en el crecimiento de Starbucks ...................................... 12 Objetivos proyectados de la gerencia ..................................................................................... 16 Análisis de la Industria................................................................................................................. 19 Análisis macroeconómico de los principales mercados .......................................................... 20 Impacto en los consumidores ................................................................................................. 24 Impacto de la clase media ....................................................................................................... 26 Análisis de la industria de Restaurantes ................................................................................. 27 Análisis de la industria del café especial ................................................................................. 30 Posicionamiento Competitivo ..................................................................................................... 33 Análisis de la cuota de mercado de Starbucks ........................................................................ 33 Ventajas competitivas de Starbucks ....................................................................................... 38 Análisis Financiero ....................................................................................................................... 40 Período 2001-2006 .................................................................................................................. 40 Período 2007-2010 .................................................................................................................. 42 Período 2011-2015 .................................................................................................................. 44 Estado de Resultados .......................................................................................................... 44 Estado de Situación Patrimonial ......................................................................................... 46 Estado de Flujo de Efectivo ................................................................................................. 47 Ratios Financieros ............................................................................................................... 48 Análisis comparativo de Starbucks con sus competidores ................................................. 55 Resumen del análisis financiero .............................................................................................. 62 Valuación ..................................................................................................................................... 63 1 Maestría en Finanzas Tesis de Valuación Año 2016 Alejandro Javier Ceroleni Flujo de fondos descontados .................................................................................................. 64 Escenario base ..................................................................................................................... 64 Principales riesgos ............................................................................................................... 81 Escenario optimista ............................................................................................................. 81 Escenario pesimista ............................................................................................................. 92 Construcción del flujo libre de fondos .............................................................................. 103 Flujo libre de fondos .......................................................................................................... 105 Tasa de descuento ............................................................................................................. 105 Valor terminal.................................................................................................................... 110 Valor presente de Starbucks ............................................................................................. 112 Valor presente del capital accionario ................................................................................ 112 Valuación por múltiplos ........................................................................................................ 112 Múltiplos de ganancias ...................................................................................................... 113 Múltiplo de ventas ............................................................................................................ 114 Resumen de las valuaciones obtenidas ................................................................................ 115 Conclusión ................................................................................................................................. 117 Anexos ....................................................................................................................................... 120 Bibliografía ................................................................................................................................ 135 2 Maestría en Finanzas Tesis de Valuación Año 2016 Alejandro Javier Ceroleni Definiciones, aclaraciones y abreviaciones SCAA: abreviatura correspondiente a “Specialty Coffee Association of America”. Es la asociación de café especial más importante a nivel global con aproximadamente 5.000 miembros distribuidos en más de 40 países, desde productores, empresas tostadoras, minoristas, entre otros, representando diferentes segmentos de la industria del café especial. Entre sus funciones se destaca el establecimiento de estándares de calidad, el desarrollo de investigaciones relacionadas, provisión de educación y entrenamiento para sus miembros, entre otras1. Café especial: término derivado del inglés “Specialty Coffee”. Hace referencia a los granos de café verde de la más alta calidad que se tuestan por agentes capacitados para alcanzar su máximo potencial de sabor. Aquellos granos de café verde sin defectos y que tengan un carácter distintivo en la copa (bebida), con una puntuación de 80 o más de acuerdo a las Normas de la SCAA2. Barista: persona con la experiencia y capacidad para ofrecer café de alta calidad y bebidas a base de café expreso a los clientes en un restaurante o cafetería3. Americas: referido a América. Indicativo del segmento operativo reportable basado en una región geográfica, utilizado por la gerencia para exponer la información financiera. Este segmento incluye la presencia de Starbucks en diferentes países, incluido Estados Unidos, Canadá y otros en Latino América. China/Asia Pacific: segmento operativo reportable basado en una región geográfica, utilizado por la gerencia para exponer la información financiera. Referido a ciertos países incluidos dentro de la región de Asia Pacífico, con China como exponente principal de este segmento. Durante el trabajo se utilizará su abreviatura en inglés “CAP” para referirse a este segmento. Europe, Middle East&Africa: segmento operativo reportable basado en una región geográfica, utilizado por la gerencia para exponer la información financiera. Referido a ciertos países incluidos dentro de la región de Europa, Medio Oriente y Africa, con Reino Unido como principal fuente de ingresos. Durante el trabajo se utilizará su abreviatura en inglés “EMEA” para referirse a este segmento. Channel Development: segmento operativo reportable utilizado por la gerencia para exponer la información financiera. En este segmento se expone la venta de diferentes productos a nivel global, a través de variados canales tales como: mayoristas y minoristas, supermercados, almacenes, distribuidores de servicios alimenticios, entre otros. Los productos vendidos son: café en grano y molido, cápsulas o máquinas de café o té, bebidas listas para el consumo, entre otros. Durante el trabajo se utilizará
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