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Austin's Office Market Sees Continued Construction And Research & Forecast Report AUSTIN | OFFICE Q3 2017 Austin’s office market sees continued construction and rising rental rates Kaitlin Holm Research and Marketing Coordinator | Austin Boots On The Ground Commentary by David Bremer we need now is a couple of Amazon big-wigs to show up at the Austin airport to really generate some buzz for Austin development. Our “Boots on the Ground” view point is the voice of our experts, who have broken down the market data and compared it to what they are Future Forecast seeing for themselves. This is their take on what the numbers actually mean for the Austin office market. In fear of sounding like a broken record, we expect the overall office market to remain strong but reasonably flat. Core properties As predicted, the office market has remained extremely strong will continue to push rates and garner the most attention, while and rates have seen a slight increase over the past quarter. The suburban properties will potentially see a slight increase in trend of big companies eating up large spaces has become the vacancy, which could finally open the door for landlord concessions norm and the expansions of tech giants and co-working spaces (or as a tenant rep, what I like to call “the good old days”). I’m not have continued to embolden landlords and developers to bring holding my breath. speculative product to the market. Unfortunately for tenants, not enough of this product is becoming available beyond the pre- By The Numbers leasing phase to have a meaningful impact on rates or landlord concessions. TOTAL INVENTORY TOTAL VACANCY We continue to see mid to large sized companies chasing lower 51.2M SF 11.6% rates and pursuing developments just outside of the CBD in the East, South, or Domain submarkets. Companies such as Q3 NET ABSORPTION YTD NET ABSORPTION FloSports, Nexstar Digital and Main Street Hub have stepped in as full building users for a few of these buildings and we are -41,974 SF 609,304 SF seeing very heavy activity on the remaining buildings currently TOTAL UNDER planned or under construction. Significant demand for space in TOTAL PRE-LEASED close proximity to downtown is driving average rates higher and CONSTRUCTION is responsible for much of the absorption seen in the past three 3.8M SF 2.3M SF quarters, suburban Northwest and Southwest submarkets have AVERAGE SUBURBAN not fared quite as well. Rising central rates have incentivized CBD CLASS A enough tenants to explore the “burbs”, balancing those markets RATE/SF CLASS A with healthy/flat growth. The exception, of course, is the Domain, $34.02 $49.43 $34.80 which continues to successfully deploy the “build it and they will *Rates inclusive of estimated operating expenses. come” tactic. There are a few blockbuster deals that are in the works including: a redevelopment plan for the 3M campus (currently under contract), sale of the Brandywine/DRA portfolio (1,164,000 SF), a possible land assemblage in close-in South Central Austin that could pave the way for some impressive new product over the next seven years, and no less than three 250K+ SF downtown tenants vying for new buildings years in advance of delivery. All to 5.0% over the quarter. Austin Office Overview ANNUAL ABSORPTION, NEW SUPPLY, AND VACANCY Net Absorption New Supply Vacancy In the third quarter of 2017, Austin’s office market saw 41,974 SF 1,200,000 25.0 of negative net absorption. This sets the year-to-date absorption 1,000,000 at 609,304 SF of positive net absorption. A majority of the positive 20.0 absorption happened in class B buildings with a total of 154,351 SF 800,000 15.0 of positive net absorption. Class A buildings in Austin saw 74,003 600,000 SF of negative net absorption and class C properties saw 122,322 400,000 10.0 SF of negative net absorption. 200,000 5.0 There is currently 3,801,853 SF of office space under construction 0 and 2,305,799 SF, or 60.6%, of that is pre-leased. The fourth -200,000 0.0 quarter of 2017 is expected to see 1,223,152 SF of deliveries and 601,577 SF, or 49.2%, of that is pre-leased. Building 1 at 7601 Southwest Parkway was the only building that delivered in the third quarter. The 87,500 SF building was 33.4% pre-leased when it delivered in July. As of now, the fourth quarter is expected to see twenty two new buildings deliver, but some projects may get pushed into the new year. Market Indicators Annual Quarterly Quarterly The citywide average rental rate decreased marginally over the Relative to prior period Change Change Forecast* quarter from $34.03 per SF in Q2 2017 to $34.02 per SF in Q2 VACANCY 2017. Class A rental rates in Austin’s CBD decreased by 0.8% over the quarter to $49.43 per SF from $49.84 per SF in the second NET ABSORPTION quarter of 2017. Overall suburban Class A rental rates increased, NEW CONSTRUCTION from $33.57 per SF to $34.80, over the quarter. UNDER CONSTRUCTION In July, the Austin-Round Rock, TX MSA was ranked #9 on WalletHub’s “2017’s Most & Least Educated Cities in America”, which *Projected ranks MSAs across country based on where the most educated Americans are putting their degrees to work. Austin was the highest ranked in Texas and also beat out other major tech cities such as Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA (#11), Raleigh, NC (#15), and Summary Statistics San Diego-Carlsbad, CA (#21). Austin Office Market Q3 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Vacancy Rate 12.0% 11.6% 11.6% When recruiting the top talent with the best education, it helps to have the #8 ranked Public University in America in your city. The Net Absorption .184 .229 -.189 University of Texas - Austin was ranked #8 out of over 500 public (Million Square Feet) and state colleges by Niche and has been providing the city of New Construction .353 .264 2.40 Austin with highly educated employees who strengthen the Austin (Million Square Feet) area economy. Under Construction (Million Square Feet) 1.151 1.584 3.80 Vacancy & Availability Class A Vacancy Rate CBD 7.7% 9.3% 11.0% Austin’s citywide vacancy rate stayed the same over the past Suburban 13.1% 12.2% 11.8% two quarters remaining at 11.6%. The CBD class A vacancy rate increased from 9.3% in Q2 to 11.0% in Q3. The suburban class A Gross Asking Rents vacancy rate dropped quarter over quarter from 12.2% to 11.8%. Per Square Foot Per Year Average $34.68 $34.03 $34.02 Overall suburban vacancy decreased quarter over quarter from 12.2% in Q2 to 11.8% in Q3. Submarkets that saw a decrease in CBD Class A $49.62 $49.84 $49.43 vacancy over the quarter include Central, East, North/Domain, Suburban Class A $35.53 $34.57 $34.80 Northwest, Round Rock, South, and Southwest. The Round Rock submarket saw the largest decrease in vacancy, falling from 9.3% 2 Austin Research & Forecast Report | Q3 2017 | Office | Colliers International QUARTERLY ABSORPTION, NEW SUPPLY, AND VACANCY Job Growth & Unemployment Net Absorption New Supply Vacancy (not seasonally adjusted) 1,200,000 16.0% UNEMPLOYMENT 8/16 8/17 1,000,000 14.0% 12.0% AUSTIN 3.4% 3.4% 800,000 10.0% 600,000 TEXAS 4.9% 4.5% 8.0% 400,000 U.S. 5.1% 4.5% 6.0% 200,000 4.0% 0 2.0% Annual # of Jobs JOB GROWTH Change Added -200,000 0.0% AUSTIN 2.1% 21.1K TEXAS 2.4% 286.3K Absorption & Demand U.S. 1.5% 2.1M Austin’s office market posted 41,974 square feet of negative net absorption in Q3 2017. The three submarkets that experienced the largest positive net absorption gains over the quarter include Northwest, Central and Round Rock. CBD vs. Suburban A majority of the positive net absorption in the third quarter happened in the class A North/Domain submarket, totalling CLASS A OFFICE VACANCY 96,755 square feet of positive net absorption. Some of this can be 16.0% attributed to Social Solutions moving into their 25,231 square foot 14.0% space at Braker Pointe III (10801 North MoPac Expressway). The second highest positive net absorption occurred in class B space in 12.0% the Northwest submarket, with 66,183 square feet absorbed in the 10.0% third quarter. 8.0% The South submarket had the most tenants sign leases for spaces 6.0% 10,000 square feet or larger. There were four leases signed in Q3 4.0% in the South submarket including Nexstar taking 17,900 square feet at Mirabeau at 2330 South Lamar Boulevard. The submarket 2.0% with the most square feet leased in Q3 was the CBD with 283,695 0.0% square feet. The most notable is Facebook’s 231,506 square foot lease at Third and Shoal (208 Nueces Street). Third and Shoal is set to deliver in Q3 of 2018. CBD Vacancy Suburban Vacancy Rental Rates CLASS A OFFICE RENTS According to CoStar, our data provider, Austin’s citywide average $50.00 rental rate decreased marginally over the quarter from $34.03 per $45.00 SF to $34.02 per SF. $40.00 $35.00 As expected, the highest rates across the Austin office market in $30.00 the first quarter were in CBD class A buildings where rental rates $25.00 averaged $49.43 per SF.
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