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Consumer Staples | KOREA CONSUMER RELATED NOMURA FINANCIAL INVESTMENT Cara Song +82 2 3783 2328 [email protected] (KOREA) CO LTD Stacey Kim +82 2 3783 2333 [email protected] NEW THEME ANCHOR REPORT Finding younger markets Stocks for action Korea’s population isn’t getting any younger. With the absolute number of Koreans We recommend a switch from KT&G aged 25-49 having peaked in 2008, we believe the onus is on FMCG companies to and Hite to China plays such as Orion nurture new drivers before changing demographics start to impact growth in and Lock&Lock. Although Amorepacific established segments. To offset otherwise slowing volume growth, we look for Korean and LGHH have strong business players to expand addressable markets (tapping new segments and going for M&A), fundamentals, we are NEUTRAL, on shift to the premium end, and broaden footprints in China. Segments where growth unattractive valuations. prospects appear relatively good for Korean players are cosmetics and confectionary, Price Potential where we see resilient market volume expansion, a strong presence in China, and Stock Rating Price target upside success in premium brand strategies. But tobacco and liquor players with relatively Hite (103150 KS) REDUCE* 123,000 100,000 (18.7) weak brands and no growth base in China, such as KT&G and Hite, look exposed to KT&G (033780 KS) NEUTRAL 65,600 66,000 0.6 AP (090430 KS) NEUTRAL 1,130,000 1,120,000 (0.9) the effects of ageing in their home market. We like Lock&Lock and Orion for their LG HH (051900 KS) NEUTRAL 392,000 440,000 12.2 strong earnings prospects (30%-plus y-y in FY11F) underpinned by growth spurts in Orion (001800 KS) BUY 405,000 470,000 16.0 L&L (115390 KS) BUY 35,900 52,000 44.8 their China operations as well as relatively attractive valuations (20x FY11F P/E, 0.6x * Initiating coverage; pricing as of 4 January, 2011 FY11F PEG). We remain NEUTRAL on LGHH and Amorepacific despite strong business fundamentals, owing to unappealing valuations. We are NEUTRAL on KT&G, Analysts given sluggish earnings momentum. We initiate coverage of Hite Brewery with a Cara Song REDUCE on account of weak earnings momentum and rich-looking valuations. +82 2 3783 2328 [email protected] Consumer profile changing alongside demographic changes Stacey Kim Overseas expansion looks critical to sustain growth +82 2 3783 2333 [email protected] Top picks: Lock&Lock and Orion Nomura Anchor Reports examine the key themes and value drivers that underpin our sector views and stock recommendations for the next 6 to 12 months. Any authors named on this report are research analysts unless otherwise indicated. See the important disclosures and analyst certifications on pages 76 to 80. Nomura 10 January 2011 Consumer Staples | KOREA CONSUMER RELATED NOMURA FINANCIAL INVESTMENT (KOREA) CO LTD Cara Song +82 2 3783 2328 [email protected] NEW Stacey Kim +82 2 3783 2333 [email protected] THEME Action Stocks for action We like Lock&Lock and Orion for their strong earnings growth, while we remain We would recommend a switch from NEUTRAL on KT&G due to its weak earnings momentum. We initiate coverage of KT&G and Hite to China plays such Hite with a REDUCE rating. We like the cosmetics and beverage sectors, but we as Orion and Lock&Lock. Although are NEUTRAL on Amorepacific and LGHH on unattractive valuations. Amorepacific and LGHH have strong business fundamentals, we are Catalysts NEUTRAL, on unattractive valuations. Potential price hikes that could more than offset declines in sales volumes. Price Potential Stock Rating Price target upside Anchor themes Hite (103150 KS) REDUCE* 123,000 100,000 (18.7) KT&G (033780 KS) NEUTRAL 65,600 66,000 0.6 Demographic change (the number of consumers aged 25-49, an age group that AP (090430 KS) NEUTRAL 1,130,000 1,120,000 (0.9) has higher spending power, is dropping) will affect the growth outlook of consumer- LG HH (051900 KS) NEUTRAL 392,000 440,000 12.2 related companies in Korea. Like Japan, we believe demand for tobacco and liquor Orion (001800 KS) BUY 405,000 470,000 16.0 L&L (115390 KS) BUY 35,900 52,000 44.8 (beer) in Korea will gradually fall, but we see the cosmetics and soft drink markets * Initiating coverage; pricing as of 4 January, 2011 benefitting from the demographic change. Finding younger markets Analysts Cara Song Consumer profile changing alongside demographic changes +82 2 3783 2328 [email protected] With Korea experiencing a rapidly ageing population, the absolute population aged 25-49 peaked in 2008, according to UN statistics, and is likely to continue to Stacey Kim decline, in our view. Apart from affecting economic growth, demographic changes +82 2 3783 2333 could have a positive impact on the cosmetics and beverage sectors as the ageing [email protected] population turns more health conscious and looks to maintain youth and beauty. In our opinion, the tobacco and liquor industries in Korea could be hurt by this change. Overseas expansion looks critical to sustain growth In our opinion, Korean FMCG companies need to focus on finding new markets (e.g., new segments, M&A) to offset their slowing volume growth. We find that companies with a better growth outlook are those in the cosmetics and confectionary segments (for example, Orion has successfully created a premium segment; Lock&Lock and Orion have also expanded their footprints in China, which has significant growth potential, in our view) and capable of strengthening their core competitiveness to gain market share, such as Amorepactific and LGHH. In our view, companies losing market share and which have no growth base in China, such as KT&G and Hite, are likely to suffer as a result of Korea’s demographic changes. Top picks: Lock&Lock and Orion We like China plays for their strong earnings growth potential (above 30% y-y in FY11F) and relatively attractive valuations (~20x FY11F P/E, ~0.6x FY11F PEG). We maintain NEUTRAL on LGHH and Amorepacific despite strong business fundamentals, as valuations look unattractive. We are NEUTRAL on KT&G due to its weak earnings momentum. We initiate coverage of Hite Brewery with a REDUCE rating due to its weak earnings momentum and expensive valuation. Nomura 1 10 January 2011 Consumer Staples | Korea Cara Song Contents What changes will Korea see? 4 The Japan experience 4 Same challenges but less serious for Korea 4 Structurally new demography in Korea 6 Cosmetics: Healthy growth to continue 9 Resilient growth in Japan 9 Korea’s demographic trends similar to that of Japan 10 Skin care to lead growth 10 Channel diversification good for major brands 11 Premium cosmetic sector to grow steadily 12 Rising per capita soft drink consumption 13 Bigger per capita consumption helped drinks market in Japan 13 Very similar trends in Korea 14 More changes in product mix expected in Korea 15 Tobacco: the most challenged 17 Japan tobacco market was severely hit by ageing 17 The smoking population has started to fall in Korea 18 Media encouraging smokers to quit 19 Taste shifting more from slim to regular in Korea 19 The faster-growing high-end segment 20 Price hikes not imminent 21 Beer: facing unfavourable changes too 22 Beer volume declines in Japan 22 Korea: tough to fight demographic trends 23 Product mix – premium growth 24 Price hikes could hurt beer consumption further 24 Confectionery: targeting adults 25 Japan: less demand due to a falling young population 25 Korea already trying to overcome difficulties brought by demographic changes 25 Implications to our stock view 27 Orion (BUY) and Lock & Lock (BUY) our top picks 27 NETURAL on LGHH and Amorepacific 27 Negative on KT&G (NEUTRAL) and Hite (REDUCE) 28 Nomura 2 10 January 2011 Consumer Staples | Korea Cara Song Ageing population 31 Korea rapidly heading towards an aged society 31 Two fundamentals trends in ageing 32 Ageing of the society and the consumer industry 33 Baby boomers, becoming aged consumers 33 Demographic model of Korea, resembles that of Japan 34 Consumer industry in Korea to follow Japan’s 35 Latest company views Hite Brewery: Little to cheer about 36 KT&G: Weaker domestic tobacco (III) 61 Amorepacific: It’s valuation that counts (II) 64 LG H&H: Unattractive valuation (II) 67 Orion: Premium play going big in China (V) 70 Lock & Lock: Not just china, all emerging China (I) 73 Nomura 3 10 January 2011 Consumer Staples | Korea Cara Song Investment summary What changes will Korea see? Over the past decade, almost all Korean consumer sub-sectors have showed strong The number of consumers aged sales volume, supported by the country’s fast economic growth and an increased 25-49 peaked in 2008; we believe this will have a significant impact number of consumers aged 25-49, the age group deemed more knowledgeable about on the Korean consumer industry product choices, conscious of product trends, with more social activities and higher spending power. However, in 2009-10, the liquor and tobacco markets in Korea posted their first negative growth in two decades. Other fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies also witnessed slowing volume growth. While the global economic crisis in 2008 was responsible for the slowdown, we also attribute the weakness to Korea’s demographic changes. The number of consumers aged 25-49 peaked in 2008, according to UN statistics, and we believe this will have a significant impact on the Korean consumer industry. The Japan experience Economic growth has always been a key indicator for FMCGs’ market growth.
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