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The Recipe for F&B

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The Recipe for F&B Analyst 한국희 3774-1474 [email protected] Monthly Update The Recipe for F&B: valuation Global / Food, Beverage and Tobacco Oct 30 2007 Vol. 6 강세장 Earnings Season: 엇갈린 주가 움직임 F&B Sector Performance <World> (%) 1M 3M 6M MSCI AC world 2.3 4.0 3.9 ■ 강세장을 소폭 아웃퍼폼 MSCI AC world F&B 2.4 6.8 3.7 지난 한달 간 글로벌 주식 시장은 강세를 지속. 글로벌 F&B 섹터는 벤치마크를 Relative Performance 0.1 2.8 (0.2) 소폭 아웃퍼폼함. 지역별로 MSCI AC world F&B, MSCI AP ex. Japan F&B, MSCI Korea F&B 각각의 상대 퍼포먼스는 0.1%, -1.3%, 6.9% 수준. 특별한 <AP ex. Japan> (%) 1M 3M 6M 지역적 특성은 두드러지지 않았음. MSCI AP ex. Japan 8.1 13.5 26.9 MSCI AC ex. Japan F&B 6.7 12.1 11.9 ■ 실적 시즌: 컨센서스 하향조정 기업들의 언더퍼폼 두드러짐 Relative Performance (1.3) (1.4) (15.1) 다소 특이했던 것은 1) Altria, JT 등의 tobacco sector 퍼포먼스가 상대적으로 양호. 이전 기간 주가 조정을 상당폭 회복하였음. 2) 반면 food sector의 수익 <Korea> (%) 1M 3M 6M 률 부진 지속됨. 3) 실적 시즌인만큼 컨센서스 하향조정이 대폭적으로 이루어진 MSCI Korea 5.7 4.0 28.7 기업들 (Hershey, Nissin Food 등)의 수익률 부진. MSCI Korea F&B 12.6 10.4 19.4 Relative Performance 6.9 6.3 (9.3) ■ Korean F&B: PER 밸류에이션 프리미엄 약 10% 미만으로 하락 10월 이후 한국 F&B 섹터의 밸류에이션 프리미엄은 급격히 하락하기 시작. 연 초 market 대비 70% 수준에서 지난 9월말 30% 수준으로 하락한 뒤, 현재 10% 미만으로 추가 하락. 상대 Tr PBR 기준으로는 0.97x, 상대 Tr EV/EBITDA 기준으로는 0.8x 수준까지 하락. INDUSTRY ANALYSIS MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH The Recipe for F&B: valuation Analyst 한국희 3774-1474 [email protected] C ontents C I. Global F&B Sector Overview 5 II. Asia Pacific F&B Sector Overview 15 III. Domestic F&B Sector Overview 24 Oct 30 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 2 The Recipe for F&B: valuation Analyst 한국희 3774-1474 [email protected] 그림목차 <Graph 1> World F&B sector Relative to MSCI AC World by industry 5 <Graph 2> Consumer Staple Sector’s Last Week Performance by industry 5 <Graph 3> Winners and Losers of Last Week 8 <Graph 4> PER - EPS Growth Map 9 <Graph 5> PBR - ROE Map 9 <Graph 6> Leading Global F&B : Forward 12 month PER 10 <Graph 7> Leading Global F&B : Forward 12 month PBR 10 <Graph 8> Leading Global F&B : Forward 12 month Dividend Yield 11 <Graph 9> Leading Global F&B : Forward 12 month EV/EBITDA 11 <Graph 10> Leading Global F&B : PEG 12 <Graph 11> Leading Global F&B : Forward 12 month PSR 12 <Graph 12> AP ex. Japan F&B sector Relative to MSCI AC World by industry 15 <Graph 13> Consumer Staple Sector’s Last Week Performance by industry 15 <Graph 14> Winners and Losers of Last Week 18 <Graph 15> PER-EPS Growth Map 19 <Graph 16> PBR-ROE Map 19 <Graph 17> Leading AP F&B : Forward 12 month PER 20 <Graph 18> Leading AP F&B : Forward 12 month PBR 20 <Graph 19> Leading AP F&B : Forward 12 month Dividend Yield 21 <Graph 20> Leading AP F&B : Forward 12 month EV/EBITDA 21 <Graph 21> Leading AP F&B : PEG 22 <Graph 22> Leading AP F&B : Forward 12 month PSR 22 <Graph 23> Korea F&B Sector Relative to MSCI Korea by industry 24 <Graph 24> Consumer Staple Industry’s Last Week Performance by industry 24 <Graph 25> Winners and Losers of Last Week 25 <Graph 26> PER - EPS Growth 28 <Graph 27> Tr.PBR - ROE Map 28 <Graph 28> PEG Valuation 28 <Graph 29> Korean F&B’s Historical Relative PER 29 <Graph 30> Korean F&B’s Historical Relative PBR 29 <Graph 31> Korean F&B’s Historical Relative EV/EBITDA 29 표목차 <Table 1> Global F&B Comparative Valuation 6 <Table 2> Global F&B Comparative Performance 7 <Table 3> Asia Pacific F&B Comparative Valuation 16 <Table 4> Asia Pacific F&B Comparative Performance 17 <Table 5> Korea F&B Comparative Valuation 26 <Table 6> Korea F&B Comparative Performance 27 Oct 30 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 3 The Recipe for F&B: valuation Analyst 한국희 3774-1474 [email protected] Global Oct 30 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 4 The Recipe for F&B: valuation Analyst 한국희 3774-1474 [email protected] I. Global F&B Sector Overview 전반적으로 벤치마크 수준의 수익률 지난 한달 간 글로벌 주식 시장은 강세를 지속한 가운데 글로벌 F&B 섹터는 벤치마 지켜진 가운데 어닝스 컨센서스 크를 소폭 아웃퍼폼함. 지역별로 MSCI AC world F&B, MSCI AP ex. Japan F&B, 하향 기업들의 주가 부진 MSCI Korea F&B 각각의 상대 퍼포먼스는 0.1%, -1.3%, 6.9% 수준. 지난 9월 한달 두드러졌음 간 글로벌 F&B 섹터의 상대수익률은 매우 부진했음. 특히 food sector의 부진이 두 드러졌음. 10월 동안은 빠른 속도로 반등. 반등폭은 tobacco sector가 가장 크게 나 타남. 이에 따라 세부 섹터별 움직임은 food sector의 상대 부진 지속 vs tobacco sector의 아웃퍼폼으로 요약됨. 종목 레벨에서는 어닝시즌이 주요 변수로 작용한 듯. 1개월 어닝스 컨센서스 하향조정이 가장 큰 폭으로 이루어진 Hershey 및 Nissin Food의 주가 하락률이 가장 컸음. Food 섹터 언더퍼폼 지속한 반면 <Graph 1> World F&B sector Relative to MSCI AC World by industry tobacco 섹터의 상대 수익률 우수 (%) 110 108 106 104 Beverage 102 100 98 96 Tobacco 94 Food 92 90 06/01 06/03 06/05 06/07 06/09 06/11 07/01 07/03 07/05 07/07 07/09 자료: Factset, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 (2006/01/01=100) <Graph 2> Consumer Staple Sector’s Last Month Performance by industry (%) 6.0 5.6 5.0 4.0 3.4 3.0 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.0 Food World Food Tobacco Staples Retailing Personal Products Beverage Products Consumer Household 자료: Factset, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 주: 절대수익률 기준 Oct 30 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 5 The Recipe for F&B: valuation Analyst 한국희 3774-1474 [email protected] <Table 1> Global F&B Comparative Valuation Company Name Ticker Ctry Wgt MCap Sales Sales G (YoY) Net Inc. EPS G (YoY) EPS (MoM) OP Margin EBITDA Margin ROE 07E 07E 08E 07E 07E 08E 07E 08E 07E 08E 07E 08E 07E 08E (%) (USD bn) (USD bn) (%) (%) (USD bn) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Earnings Summary Nestle S.A. NESN-CH SW 7.1 185.4 92.3 9.0 7.8 8.9 14.8 11.7 0.7 0.9 13.8 14.0 16.7 17.2 19.9 21.8 Altria Group Inc. MO-US US 5.8 153.6 37.9 (46.2) 3.9 9.2 (18.5) 6.7 1.6 0.6 37.1 37.4 38.1 38.9 55.9 50.2 Coca-Cola Co. KO-US US 4.9 142.1 28.3 17.7 9.2 6.2 12.7 12.4 1.5 2.7 26.2 26.9 30.1 31.1 35.2 36.5 PepsiCo Inc. PEP-US US 4.5 116.4 38.9 10.6 6.0 5.6 12.3 10.7 (0.3) 0.3 18.7 19.2 22.4 23.3 35.8 37.9 British American Tobacco PLC BATS-GB UK 2.2 76.1 20.1 0.4 4.0 4.4 7.4 9.3 0.0 0.1 30.5 31.1 34.4 35.1 32.7 34.2 Kraft Foods Inc. KFT-US US 2.0 52.5 36.4 5.9 11.2 2.9 (6.7) 7.2 0.0 0.0 13.7 13.4 16.0 16.0 10.6 11.9 Japan Tobacco Inc. 2914-JP JP 1.0 56.0 56.1 34.3 9.8 2.2 21.5 (6.8) 0.0 0.3 6.6 5.9 9.1 9.7 12.3 10.2 InBev INB-BE BE 0.7 57.4 20.7 8.3 5.8 2.6 29.3 15.9 0.0 (0.1) 26.6 27.9 33.7 34.8 14.2 14.4 Anheuser-Busch Cos. Inc. BUD-US US 1.5 38.8 16.6 5.9 3.8 2.1 11.1 9.5 (0.3) 0.3 17.1 16.9 23.1 22.7 63.0 90.6 Groupe Danone BN-FR FR 1.5 40.9 18.9 (6.5) 27.4 1.8 5.1 9.1 (1.5) (3.1) 15.6 14.9 18.9 18.3 20.6 16.2 Kellogg Co. K-US US 0.6 21.5 11.7 6.9 4.8 1.1 10.2 10.1 0.2 0.5 16.0 16.4 19.3 19.7 47.2 41.5 Archer Daniels Midland Co. ADM-US US 0.8 22.6 48.1 9.2 2.6 1.7 7.6 15.7 (5.9) (0.7) 4.7 5.2 6.5 6.8 15.2 16.1 General Mills Inc. GIS-US US 0.8 18.7 13.0 4.9 4.3 1.2 8.5 8.7 0.0 0.0 17.0 17.2 20.5 20.6 22.9 23.2 H.J. Heinz Co. HNZ-US US 0.6 15.0 9.6 6.8 4.8 0.8 9.7 8.8 (0.4) 0.0 16.5 17.0 19.4 19.7 45.3 43.9 Campbell Soup Co.
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