Volume 3 | Issue 9 | Article ID 2065 | Sep 28, 2005 The Asia-Pacific Journal | Japan Focus

Redrawing India's Geostrategic Maps with China and the United States

Lora Saalman

Redrawing India’s Geostrategic Maps Ribao) asserts that strengthened Indo-U.S. with China and the United States relations are targeted at containing China’s rise.[2] In these analyses, China and the United By Lora Saalman States are portrayed as focusing their strategic concerns squarely upon each other, while India maneuvers to secure political, economic and military benefits.

Yet, there remains a crucial and often missed difference between the Chinese and the U.S. [This comprehensive survey of India’s growing approaches toward engaging India. China’s military strength and geostrategic relationships current inducements for India primarily focus involving China, the United States and Russia on economic integration and energy reveals the interplay between economic and development. By contrast, the U.S. has made military-nuclear power in a region that is dual-use technology transfer the centerpiece of doubly volatile, as the scene of recent nuclear its engagement strategy. At India’s level of breakthroughs and rapid changes in military technological sophistication, however, U.S. and economy might. Noting the predominantly dual-use nuclear, space, and military military character of the U.S.-Indiancooperation promises to enhance India’s relationship, and the predominantly economic political weight and military footprint in ways and resource-driven character of the unfolding that are more likely to conflict with long-term China-Indian relationship, Lora Saalman raises U.S. strategic goals than with those of China. important issues of regional development in an Rather than encircling China as the People’s era of military insecurity. Japan Focus.] Daily foresees, the United States may instead be containing its own long-term interests. India has been revising its strategic maps with China and the United States, both literally and China and the United States Engage India figuratively. During early spring of 2005, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao handed Indian On April 1, 2005, China and India took a Prime Minister Manmohan Singh a map symbolic step toward strategic cooperation as reformatted to reflect the long-contested region Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Indian Prime of Sikkim as part of India. By summer, the Minister Manmohan Singh issued the India- United States handed India defense, nuclear, China Strategic and Cooperative Partnership and space technology proposals, promising to for Peace and Prosperity.[3] This joint transform more than just physical territory. statement lauded the “global and strategic Articles in India-based Bharat Rakshak Monitor character” of Sino-Indian relations. It offered attribute the warming of Sino-Indian ties as a economic incentives for expanded cooperation, means to counter the U.S. presence in Asia.[1] with the objective of nearly doubling bilateral China's Party organ People’s Daily (Renmin trade to $20 billion by 2008. The two parties

1 3 | 9 | 0 APJ | JF also announced the formation of a China-India Cooperation Group (HTCG). The United States Steering Committee on Scientific and Technical committed to signing a Science and Technology Cooperation in education, science, healthcare, Framework Agreement, to building closer ties tourism, cultural exchange, and agriculture. in space exploration, satellite navigation and India and China provisionally resolved the long launch, facilitating a U.S.-India Working Group standing dispute over Sikkim and agreed to on Civil Space Cooperation, and to removing cooperate in developing foreign petroleum and certain Indian organizations from the natural gas resources.[4] Department of Commerce’s Entity List. Most notably, the United States agreed to seek adjustment of U.S. laws for full civil nuclear cooperation and trade with India, including reactor fuel supplies, and to consult with its partners on India’s participation in the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) and in the Generation IV International Forum.[6] These proposals are under debate in the U.S. Congress and will require amendment of the Atomic Energy Act of 1954 and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Act of 1978, as well as the acquiescence of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) before full cooperation begins.[7] This time lag offers an opportunity to reflect on the impact of dual-use cooperation on India, China, and ultimately the United States.

Only a few months later, on June 28th, India’s Defense Minister Pranab Mukherjee met with U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld to sign the New Framework for the U.S.-India Defense Relationship.[5] This agreement set forth detailed measures involving joint military exercises, defense and technology trade, missile defense, and exchanges on defense strategy, and intelligence. On July 18th India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and U.S. President George W. Bush issued a joint statement, further expanding the scope of the existing India-U.S. Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP) and High Technology U.S. Assistance, Indian Indigenization, and

2 3 | 9 | 0 APJ | JF the Impact on China the development of thorium-fed fast breeder reactors makes it even less susceptible to the In spite of emphasizing self-reliance in the vagaries of international fuel supply and wake of sanctions following its 1998 atomic sanctioning. Fast breeder reactors produce tests, India is not new to foreign assistance.[8] more than they consume, offering India a Nor is India a novice in creating linkages steady and renewable future supply of weapons between its civilian nuclear and space advances grade fuel. AHWRs in particular burn and its nuclear weapon and missile programs. thorium/U-233 oxide producing spent fuel that India’s initial nuclear test in 1974 utilized can be reprocessed.[13] India’s PFBR at plutonium from its Canadian and ostensibly Kalpakkam and its Kamini 40 MWt Fast civilian Cirus nuclear reactor, while its 1989 Breeder Test Reactor (FBTR) both breed launch of the first Agni ballistic missileU-233.[14] While less of a proliferation risk due comprised technology gained from the U.S. to its high radioactivity, U-233 has fissile Scout satellite launcher. Similarly, the dual-use properties comparable to U-235 used for technology mentioned under the Indo-U.S. nuclear weapons production.[15] India’s recent defense framework and joint statement may technical developments suggest that it has assist India in its ongoing pursuit of advances made significant strides towards mastering, in nuclear weapons technology, longer range indigenizing, and expanding the scope of its ballistic missiles, and submarine-launched nuclear fuel cycle. ballistic missiles. However, not all components of India’s nuclear Indigenization and Nuclear Assistance program are moving forward. David Albright, executive director of the Institute of Science The most significant shift in U.S. policy brought and International Security (ISIS), and Henry on by the July 18th U.S.-Indian joint statement Sokolski, executive director of the relates to dual-use nuclear cooperation. India Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, have has already managed to parlay decades of pointed to India’s less than proven track record Russian, U.S., German, and French assistance in successfully operating its fast breeder into what is now a robust indigenous civilian reactors and reprocessing plants.[16] This is and military nuclear program. While nuclear where U.S. technological assistance to India’s power only occupies an estimated 3.3 to 5 civilian nuclear program can offer a degree of percent of India’s energy production, India is streamlining for both India’s civilian and, by actively pursuing nuclear power development extension, military nuclear programs. Fusion with important civilian as well as military technology, whether garnered through the implications.[9] In October 2004, IndiaITER project or under the U.S.-India Energy launched the commercial phase of its 500 MWe Dialogue, could help overcome some of India’s Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) at civilian and military technological gaps.[17] Kalpakkam.[10] Four more such fast reactors India’s alleged failed detonation of a have been announced for construction by 2020. thermonuclear weapon during its multiple 1998 During April 2005, the Bhabha Atomictests is just one such lacuna.[18] Fusion Research Center (BARC) also commissioned an technology not only has applications in Integral Test Loop (ITL) to simulate the main thermonuclear weapons, but also could assist heat transport system and safety system of the in nuclear warhead miniaturization to extend thorium-based Advanced Heavy Water Reactor missile launch range and payload capacity. This (AHWR).[11] will enable India to produce a higher nuclear yield and to successfully mount its nuclear For uranium-poor and thorium-rich India,[12] weapons on missiles to fly greater distances.

3 3 | 9 | 0 APJ | JF

Beyond hypothetical assistance and rhetoric, as sufficient stockpile, estimated at 31.1 civilian of August 30, 2005, the United States has and military metric tons of HEU and Pu[23] to already removed Tarapur (TAPS 1 and 2), double or triple its current arsenal of Rajasthan (RAPS 1 and 2), and Kudankulam (1 approximately 400 nuclear weapons.[24] and 2) from the U.S. Entity List, mitigating Despite the current differential, there is export licensing requirements.[19] For these nothing in the U.S.-India joint statement that particular reactors, assistance will besuggests India will be constrained in its current monitored under International Atomic Energy fissile material build-up. Any future Agency (IAEA) safeguards. However, for other commitments to a contentious Fissile Material reactors and facilities demarcating the dividing Cut-Off Treaty aside, India has repeatedly line between civilian and military use will be a stated that it will continue to build up its tedious, and many Indian and U.S. analysts plutonium stockpile until it reaches a level that suggest impossible, process. Althoughprovides a strategic comfort zone vis-à-vis management of the AHWR unveiled in August China and Pakistan. If India continues to 2005 has been ostensibly transferred to the expand its fissile material stockpile and civilian Atomic Energy Regulatory Board receives U.S. technological and material (AERB), the unit has the ability to produce transfers, China’s willingness and incentive to U-233 that can be reprocessed for nuclear maintain a freeze on its own fissile material weapons. Furthermore, it was designed by production may erode. This could lead to BARC, a known contributor to India’s nuclear intensified efforts by China to assist Pakistan’s weapons program.[20] Due to the overlap weapons programs, to expand its own arsenal, between India’s civilian and military programs, or both. there remains the potential for diversion of technology, equipment, and potentially even In the meantime, China’s current nuclear materials to nuclear weapons programs. capabilities, stockpile, and arsenal gives it the edge over India. If India maintains its stance of Nuclear Impact on China minimum deterrence, it is unlikely to attempt to surpass China’s nuclear strength. Instead, U.S. Whether U.S.-assisted or indigenous, India’s nuclear assistance to India has a greater nuclear advances carry strategic weight for potential for proliferation ricochet to other Sino-Indian relations. Both countries espouse a countries. Among suppliers, Britain quickly nuclear doctrine based on minimumfollowed the U.S.-India joint statement in July deterrence. Yet, India continues to engage in by announcing its decision to modify its own fissile material production to augment its sanctions against India in August.[25] Russia stockpile. The 2005 edition of the book Deadly voiced its own approval in September with its Arsenals has already expanded its Indian sights set on legitimizing its nuclear trade with weapons estimates to 75-110 nuclearIndia and, by extension, Iran.[26] After winning devices.[21] ISIS further provides an indication a deal to supply India with 6 submarines and 43 of India’s capabilities for future nuclear arsenal Airbus planes, France also acknowledged and expansion, estimating in August 2005 that India pledged to work within the NSG for “full possesses a total of between 13.9 and 14.9 international cooperation with India in the metric tons of civilian and military highly civilian nuclear field.”[27] Pakistan also staked enriched uranium (HEU) and plutoniumits own claim in September with its ambassador (Pu).[22] to the United States, a former Army chief, stating that the U.S. deal with India “should In comparison, China has stopped fissile leave the door open for other countries that material production, but is believed to have a meet the same criteria.”[28] As Iran, North

4 3 | 9 | 0 APJ | JF

Korea, and countless others witness acceptance billion calculations per second.[32] In April of and the benefits accrued by a country that 2005, India’s Tata Institute of Fundamental has rejected the NPT and tested nuclear Research (TIFR) also announced a partnership weapons, voluntary nuclear freezes on incipient with U.S. company Hewlett Packard to nuclear weapons programs or fissile material implement High Performance Computing (HPC) production may vanish for more parties than solutions at its Computational Mathematics just China. Laboratory (CML).[33] In any number of technologies relating to space and nuclear Indigenization and Ballistic Missileprograms, the United States can offer India Assistance technology relating to computer simulations, as well as missile launch, staging, guidance, and Dual-use space technology cooperation under range. the India-U.S. joint statement will also help India upgrade systems with military potential Beyond hypothetical developments and that were originally established using U.S. and rhetoric, in September 2004, the United States Russian transfers as a base. As early as removed India’s Indian Space Research December 2001, the U.S. National Intelligence Organization (ISRO) from the Department of Council (NIC) issued a report that India could Commerce Entity List.[34] By August 2005, the convert its Polar Space Launch Vehicle (PSLV) United States also removed several key ISRO into an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) subsidiaries, including ISRO Telemetry, within a year or two.[29] In May 2003, India Tracking and Command Network (ISTRAC), launched its second Geostationary Satellite ISRO Inertial Systems Unit (IISU), and Space Launch Vehicle (GSLV), hoisting a 1,800 kg Applications Center (SAC).[35] ISRO as the payload, the “heaviest payload ever launched parent organization is responsible for the from Indian soil.”[30] gamut of India’s space launch vehicles that possess the same technology as applied in India has demonstrated the technical ability in ballistic missile launch, guidance, and tracking. its space program to domestically manufacture The three ISRO subsidiaries focus on satellite cryogenic engines, develop solid-propelled technology, such as high-resolution commercial missiles for more rapid deployment, deliver imaging that can be used in missile targeting significant payloads, and create staged missiles accuracy and digital inertial navigation systems for longer-range ballistic missile launches. that can be used in Post Boost Vehicles (PBVs) These advances do not make future U.S. to enhance ballistic missile accuracy on assistance obsolete, rather they indicate a reentry. U.S. fusion technology may also be much faster rate of absorption, reverseapplied to super-conductive magnets employed engineering, and improvements if suchin strategic military developments in outer technology is transferred. U.S. supercomputer space and ballistic missile defense. U.S. technology, which can be used in nuclear technology will contribute to a space program weapon and missile design, is just one of the that has tremendous military potential not only types of transfers that promises to assist India’s in missile development, but also in the burgeoning supercomputer industry.[31] weaponization of space.[36]

Under Phase I of the NSSP, by the end of 2004, Ballistic Missile Impact on China the United States has already agreed to provide India’s Saha Institute of Nuclear Physics with a India is highly motivated to expand its missile Cray XD1 supercomputer, equipped with 96 program, not only to counter threats from its computer processors capable of over 422 neighbors but also to strengthen its regional

5 3 | 9 | 0 APJ | JF competitiveness and boost its scientific and not only China but also the U.S. and its allies international prestige. China poses a distant into range. strategic threat to India, while Pakistan’s barrage of tactical and strategic missile improvements keeps India occupied in an immediate contest. Pakistan’s test of its nuclear-capable Babur cruise missile less than a month after India announced mass production of the Brahmos cruise missile is a recent example.[37] Predictably, an Indian Defense Ministry official stated that the Babur looks like a repainted Chinese missile.[38] Prasun K. Sengupta has further alleged in the magazine New Delhi Force that China's state- owned China National Precision Machinery Import and Export Corp (CPMIEC) transferred 3. India's Agni-II missile this technology to Pakistan's state-owned National Development Complex (NDC).[39] Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile Bilateral Indo-Pakistani competition, which Indigenization and Assistance India continues to view as fueled by China, has led the two countries to advance their ballistic U.S.-Indian cooperation in the transfer of missile ranges well beyond each othersconventional military hardware and dual-use borders.[40] technology also promises a boost to India’s military modernization. The Soviet Union One significant measure of India’s missile traditionally dominated this trade, providing program is its ability to target Chinese cities. In India with Foxtrot Class submarines in 1968 April 1999, India first test-fired its Agni-II, and a Charlie Class nuclear powered submarine whose range of more than 2,000 km[41] in 1988.[45] Russia continued this trend enables it to reach China’s ancient capital of throughout the 1990s and by April 2004, Xi’an. With a test launch of the 3,000-3,500 km- concluded a lease agreement to supply India range Agni-III anticipated by the end of 2005, two Akula-II class nuclear submarines.[46] Yet India is rapidly approaching the rangethere have been increasing reports of Russian necessary to reach China's capital Beijing with submarine mishaps and the quality of Russian a nuclear payload.[42] In spite of delays and naval vessels sold to India has been less than concerns over the speed of its missileoptimal, with the aircraft carrier Admiral development, such as postponement of a test in Gorshkov requiring significant retrofitting.[47] 2003,[43] India appears ready to make the next While still central, the Russian Navy is rapidly leap towards an Agni-III on the basis of becoming an outmoded supplier for India’s indigenous resources. And regardless ofnaval modernization.[48] pronouncements on Indian PSLV capabilities, the ICBM dubbed Surya remains a source of Currently, India has a total of approximately 15 mere speculation at this stage.[44] U.S.submarines, 10 of them diesel-powered, known assistance to India’s space program, especially as the EKM or Sindhu class. Among the missile in guidance and staging, could play a critical systems, India has sought to launch the short- role in enabling it to achieve the next level of range Sagarika or Prithvi-III from a submarine accuracy and range, and in acquiring ICBM base. Indian analysts boast that the system will capabilities that would effectively start to bring offer India a second strike capability against

6 3 | 9 | 0 APJ | JF

Pakistan while serving as a long-range nuclear and military and trade routes. Deployment of a deterrent. These analyses suggest an expansion submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), of missile range to 2,500 kilometers.[49] A especially an intermediate range one, would modest 300 km test in October 2004 suggests, assist India in gaining depth, flexibility, and however, that the Sagarika has a long way to second-strike capability in its targeting of go before developing into a long-rangePakistani and Chinese territory. An SLBM could strategic nuclear deterrent.[50] Since its also play a tactical role if short in range and inception in 1992, the Sagarika missileconventional in payload. Yet, India’s nuclear program, like India’s submarine program, has submarine and Sagarika program, which both suffered numerous delays.[51] began in the early 1990s, have been slow in meeting the advancing demands of regional India’s Sagarika and submarine programs development and security. The Sagarika has could benefit from U.S. conventional military yet to prove itself as a strategic deterrent with equipment transfers and space-relatedthe range to strike within China’s borders. technology transfers, invigorating India’s pursuit of the final leg of its nuclear triad.[52] Like India, China has been struggling with However, aside from anticipated naval drills building its own submarine fleet with reports of and potential transfer of the outdated USS fire, leakage, and accidents. China’s submarine Trenton,[53] there is little current indication of force currently consists of four Kilo attack U.S. support for India’s naval programs. In submarines from Russia, an indigenous diesel naval terms not much has changed from the Song attack submarine, five Han nuclear attack Cold War. Although a joint naval exercise is submarines, and one nuclear-powered ballistic scheduled for late September 2005, U.S. naval missile submarine known as the Xia.[57] The sales continue to show a greater inclination U.S. Department of Defense in its Annual toward Pakistan, which is destined, according Report on the Military Power of the People’s to a September 2005 media report, to receive Republic of China suggests that China’s next- two U.S. frigate warships and eight P-3C Orion generation nuclear submarine programs are Patrol aircraft.[54] India remains dependent on likely to receive a “significant amount” of Russian assistance as with the Akula-II. The Russian assistance.[58] By contrast, India will relative lack of U.S. focus on India’s naval have access to not only Russian technology and development may demonstrate that China is equipment but also U.S., European, and Middle not the only country leery of India’s ability to Eastern sources. The delayed but much- dominate the Indian Ocean. anticipated arrival of the Scorpene submarine from France is just one example.[59] Even if Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile the European Arms Embargo on China were to Impact on China be lifted, China would continue to face U.S.- initiated obstacles to suppliers. Of all the potential theaters for conflict, the Indian Ocean is the most likely locus of Chinese, Indian and U.S. contention.[55] India’s Ministry of Defense report of 2003-2004 pinpointed Chinese development of a blue water navy, enhanced ties with India’s neighbors, and growing presence in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean as emerging challenges.[56] Access to sea lanes will grow in importance as competition accelerates for oil

7 3 | 9 | 0 APJ | JF

memorandums of understanding in November 2005 focusing on oil exploration and development in the Caspian Sea region, Central Asia, Africa and Latin America on behalf of India's Oil and Natural Gas Commission (ONGC) and the Indian Oil Corporation and China’s Sinopec, China National Petroleum Corporation, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC).[64] The agreements not only promise to solidify their economic and resource cooperation but indicate the expanded geographic reach of both nations.

Sino-Indian Realities Versus Perceptions

United States conventional military cooperation, combined with missile assistance in the guise of space technology, has the potential to strengthen India’s quest for parity with China. In the near-term, however, China is likely to dominate militarily. This assessment is based on qualitative improvements and a 4. Chinese submarine defense expenditure that is twice to four times that of India’s, depending on whether Chinese Despite increased naval competition, India and or U.S. estimates are used.[65] Despite U.S. China are not necessarily on a collision course efforts to hinder its military growth, China for resources and access to shipping lanes in remains engaged in extensive military the Indian Ocean. Chinese and Indianmodernization, with a declared military budget companies are already partners in Sudan’s of $29.9 billion for 2004.[66] China has Greater Nile Oil Project.[60] They also plan to announced increases in military spending cooperate in a joint $4 billion oil pipeline nearly every year for more than a decade, with project with Iran following establishment in U.S. estimates for China’s modernization even April 2005 of a Joint Working Group for joint higher. These advances, in line with China’s projects in oil exploration and notification.[61] rapid economic growth, highlight the India and China are also actively cooperating in difficulties that India will face should it seek to regional energy transport links. India’s“catch-up” to China. petroleum minister, Mani Shankar Aiyar, following India’s recent loss of a bid to China Depending on which Chinese defense figure is for Kazakhstan’s third-largest oil producer used for comparison, India’s own growth in PetroKazakhstan Inc. stressed the “need for military spending, while a strong 27 percent China and India to adopt a collaborative increase reaching approximately $17.6 billion approach in bidding.”[62] China also has the for the period from 2004 to 2005, is at best a incentive to cooperate with India to avoid a little over half that of China.[67] However, “Malacca Dilemma,” through which India or there is one area in which India is rapidly another country blocks China’s access to oil gaining speed: procurement. According to an imports from the Middle East and Africa.[63] August 2005 U.S. Congressional Research Indeed, India and China are expected to sign Service report, India ranked first in the world

8 3 | 9 | 0 APJ | JF in the value of arms transfer agreements from solidarity to forestall this perceived U.S. all countries by $500 million between 1997 and encirclement. India’s observer status in the 2004.[68] In 2004 alone, India ranked first in SCO combined with its attendance at August this area among all developing nations weapons 2005 Sino-Russian military exercises, purchasers, with $5.7 billion in sucheuphemistically dubbed “Peace Mission 2005,” agreements.[69] The U.S. is the world leader in are indicative of Chinese efforts at inclusive arms sales to developing nations with deliveries diplomacy, keeping its partners close and estimated at $9.7 billion in 2004.[70] Even if potential adversaries even closer: economically, India does not buy U.S. wares, it enjoys the politically, and increasingly militarily.[73] long-term negotiation and planning leverage that China lacks. India’s nuclear and missile In 2003, China and India engaged in program quest for indigenization has been unprecedented naval exercises as a major step supplemented by pursuit of suppliertoward military confidence building measures diversification. at a time when they were beginning to undertake joint energy programs.[74] Articles In spite of incitements to react, the Chinese on future Indian participation with China and government response to the U.S.-Indian joint Russia in SCO military exercises also fuel statement and defense agreement of 2005 has speculation of counterbalancing U.S. been relatively muted. China has focused more hegemony.[75] There is abundant evidence that on threats posed by the United States than China seeks to strengthen its economic, those created by a well-armed orpolitical, cultural, and even military ties with technologically-advanced India. In fact, Chinese India to pre-empt U.S. incorporation of yet popular and official media portray India as a another state at its borders. Yet, India and developing nation that has been duped by the China also share concerns ranging from energy United States. The People’s Daily cloaks its development to trade in the Indian Ocean and views behind unnamed “analysts” (fenxizhe) to elsewhere, suggesting that the United States is say that the U.S.-Indian defense framework and significant but not the only driving force in joint statement have expanded U.S. efforts to their desire to cultivate cooperation over encircle and contain China.[71] It alsocompetition. lambastes U.S. hypocritical assistance to India, in light of U.S. tandem efforts to convince Iran India has made a major strategic shift in its and North Korea to abandon their nuclear perceptions of China, from the time when programs and to pressure Europe to maintain officials such as former Indian Prime Minister its arms embargo against China.[72] Atal Behari Vajpayee and former Defense Minister George Fernandes cited China as the China adds India to a long list of countries or primary impetus behind India’s nuclear tests territories, including Taiwan, Japan, South and Agni missile program.[76] Recognizing the Korea, Kazakhstan, and Afghanistan, that have potentially adverse effects on Sino-Indian been incorporated into expansive U.S.economic and political relations, Indian authors strategic, military and economic frameworks and politicians alike have been extremely directed toward containing China. China’s own careful to emphasize that cooperation with the policies of establishing regional cooperative United States does not target China. India’s groups like the Shanghai CooperationPrime Minister Manmohan Singh has Organization (SCO) and its growingrepeatedly stated variations of the following: cooperative relationships with ASEAN and “We see new horizons in our relations with Indian Ocean nations may be understood in China. What we have done with the United part as efforts to create patterns of regional States is not at the cost of China or any other

9 3 | 9 | 0 APJ | JF country.”[77] States, suggests Indian wariness not only towards China but also towards the United At the same time, Indian authors are cautious States. not to exaggerate the warming trend in Sino- Indian relations. While Chinese articles tend to Conclusion discount the threat posed by India, for Indian strategic analysts China remains a source of For both China and the United States, concern for perceived designs on regional cooperation with India is emblematic of India’s hegemony. The 1962 India-China conflict still growing political, economic and military looms in the writings of many Indian analysts. strength. Among the many goals of issuing a The litany of Indian articles on China’sjoint statement with India, the United States contributions to Pakistan’s Babur missile may have designs on bolstering India vis-à-vis illustrates ongoing perceptions of China using a China.[81] If this is the case, however, the regional proxy to threaten India. Indiaeffect may prove to be the reverse. China has maintains a complex combination of emulation been pushed to accelerate and expand its own and distrust when it comes to China.[78] incentives, in part, to avoid United States Emulation for China’s rate of growth and ability entrenchment in another country on its as a developing country to place itself on the borders. Similarly, the United States is geopolitical map. Distrust over China’s growing compelled by China’s actions to stifle any move economic and military strength, and expansive toward a Sino-Indian alliance or Sino-Indian- diplomacy, focused on discussion of its “real Russian triangle.[82] In the midst of this array intentions”.[79] In addition to the anticipated of partnerships, India has been able to diversify technological benefits gained from cooperating its political partners, just as it has diversified with the United States, India seeks aits suppliers of technology. counterweight even as it pursues cooperative relations with China. China is but one factor in U.S. technological and military engagement with India. Also China also serves as an asset for India in its present is the realization that many of India’s efforts to cultivate stronger relations and nuclear and missile developments are already inducements from the United States. U.S. indigenous and increasingly beyond U.S. relations with Pakistan and historicalcontrol and sanctions. Concurrently, while a assistance to its military programs during the technological innovator, India has also become Cold War mark Indian perceptions ofone of the largest recipients of foreign arms questionable U.S. loyalties and unreliability. agreements and transfers. The United States is Even with the economic and technological faced with a choice of participating as a gains contained in the joint statement with the supplier or running interference as Russia, United States, numerous Indian articles lament Israel, France and other countries attempt to that India’s defense and arms relationship with benefit from India’s procurement frenzy. Profit the United States is tantamount to selling off motive may be guiding the United States as the Indian Ocean, relinquishing its nuclear much if not more than the strategic autonomy, and constraining its future fissile considerations involving China and regional material production. India prides itself on hegemony. preserving its position as an independent actor and continues to be acutely sensitive to Regardless of motive, the United States is discrimination or power politics.[80] Continued systematically removing licensing requirements Indian efforts to promote multilateralism with on many firms that contributed to India’s China and Russia, while courting the United nuclear weapons and missile programs. Lifting

10 3 | 9 | 0 APJ | JF of these sanctions combined with the joint [1] “India’s China Policy: Importance of a statement on dual-use technology can only Strategic Framework,” in “India Urged to strengthen efforts by other countries defying Formulate ‘Clear’ China Policy to Achieve U.S. and international nonproliferation norms. Strategic Objectives,” New Delhi, Bharat U.S. dual-use technology is also likely to Rakshak Monitor, FBIS SAP20050714000091, contribute to assisting India in realizingApril 1, 2005.; “The New Chapter of advanced fusion technology for its nuclear Relationship,” in “Editorial Lauds Growing weapons and advances in targeting and staging India-China Friendship to Counter US for its missiles, placing the United States and Dominance in Asia,” New Delhi Rashtriya its allies in nuclear-capable ballistic missile Sahara, FBIS SAP20050413000025, April 13, range. Even U.S. anticipation of garnering 2005. enhanced Indian support for its agenda abroad [2] Lu Yansong, “Short-sighted Nuclear Deal,” is diminished by India’s long-standingin “PRC: RMRB Article Views US-India ‘Nuclear cooperation with Chinese and RussianDeal,’ US Plan to Counter PRC with India, multilateral initiatives, most recently on Iran. Japan,” Beijing, Renmin Ribao, FBIS CPP20050819000088, August 19, 2005.; China and the United States have long engaged “RMRB Cites Huanqiu Shibao Article on India’s adversaries, while demonstratingWashington Drawing India in Against China,” reluctance to form strategic partnerships with Beijing, Renmin Ribao, FBIS India. Despite similar early trajectories and CPP20050708000034, July 7, 2005.; Palash lingering ties to Pakistan for both countries, Kumar, “AFP: US Feting India to Balance current Chinese and U.S. cooperation with Power in China-Dominated Asia: Analysts,” India is distinctly different. China has worked Hong Kong AFP, FBIS JPP20050719000088, to reduce tension with India by establishing a July 19, 2005. relationship based on stronger cooperation in [3] “Full Text of Joint Statement of China, the realms of trade, cultural exchange, and India,” People’s Daily Online, April 13, 2005, energy exploration. Politically andavailable at http://64.233.187.104, accessed on economically, the United States has also August 13, 2005.; “PM’s Statement in the Lok created inducements for closer Sino-Indian Sabha on the Visits of Chinese Premier and cooperation. Yet, by making dual-use transfers Pakistan President,” Indian Embassy, April 20, in nuclear and space technology the core of the 2005, available at United States’ other economic, political and http://www.indianembassy.org/press_release/20 strategic inducements to India, the long-term 05/April/15.htm, accessed on August 13, 2005. strategic price may be greater than the dollars [4] “The Joint Communiqué of the Informal or short-term political leverage earned. The Meeting Between the Foreign Ministers of the technology and military hardware provided by People’s Republic of China, the Russian the United States promises to expand India’s Federation and the Republic of India,” Foreign political, strategic and military footprint even Ministry of the People’s Republic of China, June beyond China. U.S. interference further3, 2005, available at http://www.fmprc.gov.cn, strengthens China’s incentives to cooperate accessed on August 13, 2005. with India. Rather than pitting India against [5] “New Framework for the U.S.-India Defense China, the United States may be setting up Relationship,” United States Embassy, New India to instead serve as a future strategic Delhi-India, June 28, 2005, available at counterweight to U.S. interests in Asia and http://newdelhi.unembassy.gov/wwwhipr06290 abroad. 5.html, accessed on July 14, 2005. [6] “India - USA Joint Statement,” Department Notes: of Atomic Energy, Government of India,

11 3 | 9 | 0 APJ | JF available at http://www.dae.gov.in/jtstmt.htm, [14] “Advanced Nuclear Power Reactors,” accessed on July 20, 2005. Nuclear Issues Briefing Paper 16, May 2005, [7] Sharon Squassoni, “U.S. Nuclearavailable at http://www.uic.com.au/nip16.htm, Cooperation with India: Issues for Congress,” accessed on September 7, 2005. Congressional Research Service Report for [15] “A ‘Proliferation-Proof’ Reactor?” NUKEM Congress, July 29, 2005, pp. 4, 5. Market Report 1997, NUKEM Nuclear [8] “Unclassified Report to Congress on the Technologies, available at Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons http://www.nukem.com/, accessed on of Mass Destruction and AdvancedSeptember 7, 2005. Conventional Munitions,” U.S. Central[16] David Albright and Kimberly Kramer, Intelligence Agency, 1 January Through 30 June “Separated Civil Plutonium Inventories: 2002, available at http://www.cia.gov, accessed Current Status and Future Directions,” on August 31, 2005. Institute of Science and International Security, [9] “Nuclear Power in India and China,” World June 10, 2005, Revised July 8, 2005.; Henry Nuclear Association, September 2004, available Sokolski, “The India Syndrome – U.S. Nuclear at http://world-nuclear.org, accessed onNonproliferation Policy Melts Down,” The February 17, 2005.; Aziz Haniffa, “’India Will Weekly Standard, August 1, 2005, pp. 15, 16. Consume More Energy to Fuel Economic [17] Andre Gsponer and Jean-Pierre Hurni, Growth,’” India Abroad, Vol. 35, No. 46, August “ITER: The International Thermonuclear 12, 2005, p. A8. Experimental Reactor and the Nuclear [10] Sunil Saraf, “Prime minister marksWeapons Proliferation Implications of beginning of India's commercial breeder,” Thermonuclear-Fusion Energy Systems,” Nucleonics Week, October 28, 2004, available Independent Scientific Research Institute, at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August Switzerland, August 10, 2005.; Sridhar K. 17, 2005. Chari, “India on Way to Joining the Fusion [11] “BARC Commissions Integral Test Loop Club,” The Tribune, August 24, 2005, available Facility for AHWR: Banerjee,” The Press Trust at http://www.tribuneindia.com, accessed on of India, April 12, 2005, available atAugust 26, 2005. http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 31, [18] “India May Test Again Because H-Bomb 2005.; T. S. Subramanian, “Advanced Heavy Failed, U.S. Believes,” Nucleonics Week, Vol. Water Reactor Construction Next Year,” The 39, No. 48, November 26, 1998, pp. 1, 9, 10. Hindu, October 24, 2003, available at[19] “Removal of License Requirements for http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 31, Exports and Reexports to India of Items 2005. Controlled Unilaterally for Nuclear [12] Estimates in the World NuclearNonproliferation Reasons and Removal of Association online journal suggest that India Certain Indian Entities from the Entity List,” has approximately six times more thorium than Bureau of Industry and Security, U.S. uranium in its domestic mineral deposits. Department of Commerce, Federal Register, “Thorium,” Information and Issue Briefs, World Vol. 70, No. 167, August 30, 2005, available at Nuclear Association, November 2004, available http://www.bxa.gov, accessed on August 30, at http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf62.htm, 2005. accessed on September 7, 2005. [20] “BARC Commissions Integral Test Loop [13] “Thorium,” Information and Issue Briefs, Facility for AHWR: Banerjee,” The Press Trust World Nuclear Association, November 2004, of India, April 12, 2005, available at available http://www.lexis.com, accessedat on August 31, http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf62.htm, 2005. accessed on September 7, 2005. [21] Aziz Haniffa, “Deadly Arsenals: India,

12 3 | 9 | 0 APJ | JF

Pakistan Can Have 110 Nuclear Bombs,” India http://www.cia.gov/nic/PDF_GIF_otherprod/mis Abroad, Vol. 35, No. 47, pp. A1, A7.; Joseph silethreat2001.pdf, accessed on August 11, Cirincione, Jon B. Wolfsthal, and Miriam 2005. Rajkumar, Deadly Arsenals – Nuclear,[30] K. S. Jayaraman, “GSLV Launch Helps Biological, and Chemical Threats, Second Move India Closer To Self-Reliance in Space,” Edition, Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment Space News, available at for International Peace, July 2005. http://209.73.219.100/spacenews/archive03/gsl [22] “Table 2 Plutonium and HEU Holdings by varch_052003.html, accessed on August 25, Country, end 2003, in Tonnes,” Global Stocks 2005. of Nuclear Explosive Materials: Summary [31] After delivery of Norwegian Norsk Data Tables and Charts,” Institute for Science and ND 100 and ND 500 type computers between International Security, July 22, 2005, Revised 1983 and 1984 and arrival of a U.S. Cray August 22, 2005. XMP-14 supercomputer in 1987, by September [23] Ibid. 2002 the Bhabha Atomic Research Center [24] “Global nuclear stockpiles, 1945-2002,” (BARC) developed the ANUPAM-PIV 64-node The Atomic Scientists Bulletin, available at supercomputer with a speed of 43 giga flops. In http://www.thebulletin.org, accessed on2003, India’s Centre for Development of September 5, 2005. "China's Fissile Material Advanced Computing (C-DAC) went one giant Stockpile," Nuclear Threat Initiative, available step further by developing the PARAM Padma at http://www.nti.org/db/china/fmstock.htm, which has a speed of one teraflop, a trillion accessed on September 19, 2005. floating point operations per second. "Norsk [25] “Britain to ease nuclear sanctions against Data Computers Used in Indian Nuclear India,” Press Trust of India via India Info, Program,” Oslo, Dagbladet, May 4, 1990, FBIS August 11, 2005, available JPRS-TND-90-011,at accessed on September 7, http://news.indiainfo.com/2005/08/11/1108uk-in 2005.; “India's BARC develops fastest dia-nuclear.html, accessed on September 7, supercomputer in the country,” Asia Pulse, 2005. September 16, 2002, available at [26] Abbas Razza Khan, “Russia endorses http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 31, nuclear pact between US and India,” Press 2005.; Sharad Purohit, R.K. Arora, S.P. Dixit, N. Trust of India, September 16, 2005, available at Mohan Ram, P.K. Sinha, V.C.V. Rao, “PARAM http://www.india-defence.com, accessed on Padma – A Teraflops Computing System And September 16, 2005. High Performance Computing in India,” Centre [27] “France Backs India’s Nuclear Energy for Development of Advanced Computing, Plans After Winning Sub, Airbus Deal,” Yahoo 2003, available at News, September 12, 2005, available at http://www.cdac.in/html/ctsf/padma/spurohit.as http://news.yahoo.com, accessed on September p, accessed on September 5, 2005. 13, 2005. [32] Indrani Bagchi, “India hopes to get [28] Foster Klug, “Pakistan Wants Civilian sanctions revoked,” Times of India, October 11, Nuclear Deal,” The Associated Press via The 2004, available at Washington Post, September 8, 2005, available http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/ at http://www.washingtonpost.com, accessed 880726.cms, accessed on September 11, 2005.; on September 8, 2005. “Foreign Secretary: India Wants 'More [29] “Foreign Missile Developments and the Symmetrical Relationship' With US,” Mumbai, Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015,”The Times of India, October 11, 2004, FBIS National Intelligence Estimate, NationalSAP20041011000006, accessed on August 30, Intelligence Council, December 2001, available 2005. at [33] “TIFR announces tie-up with HP,” in

13 3 | 9 | 0 APJ | JF

“India: Pune-Base Supercomputer Param 1000 http://www.india.mid.ru/summits/01_07.html, Announces Tie-Up With Hewlett Packard,” accessed on August 31, 2005.; “India and Chennai, Business Line, April 20, 2005, FBIS Russia to Revive Glonass,” Flight International, SAP20050421000073, accessed on August 30, December 14, 2004, available at 2005. http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 30, [34] “Announcement on U.S.-India Next Steps 2005. in Strategic Partnership,” Bureau of Industry [37] Vivek Raghuvanshi, “Pakistan’s Missile and Security, U.S. Department of Commerce, Tests Jolts India,” Defense News, August 22, September 2004, available 2005,at p. 50. http://www.bis.doc.gov/News/2004/US-IndiaNe [38] Ranjit Kumar, “China Gave ‘Babar’ to xtStep.htm, accessed on February 16, 2005. Pakistan,” in “India: US Military Expert Says [35] “Removal of License Requirements for Pakistani ‘Babar’ Missile Imported from China,” Exports and Reexports to India of Items New Delhi Navbharat Times, FBIS Controlled Unilaterally for NuclearSAP20050823000021, August 23, 2005, August Nonproliferation Reasons and Removal of 26, 2005. Certain Indian Entities from the Entity List,” [39] Prasun K. Sengupta, "Babur's Flight,” in Bureau of Industry and Security, U.S.“India: Report Notes China's Involvement in Department of Commerce, Federal Register, Pakistan's Hatf VII Cruise Missile,” New Delhi Vol. 70, No. 167, August 30, 2005, available at Force, FBIS, September 9, 2005, http://www.bxa.gov, accessed on August 30, SAP20050909000103, accessed on September 2005. 10, 2005. [36] Indian Air Force Chief Marshal,[40] G. Parthasarathy, “Cruise Missiles in Srinivaspuram Krishnaswamy stated as early as Neighborhood – A Result of Sino-Pak Growing October 2003 that India has begunNexus,” Bharat Rakshak, August 29, 2005, “conceptualizing” space weapons command available at http://www.bharat-rakshak, systems and operational command. Inaccessed on August 30, 2005. November 2003 and again in December 2004, [41] “Proliferation: Threat and Response,” India made a potentially significant step in this Office of the Secretary of Defense, U.S. direction by signing onto Russia’s Global Department of Defense, available at Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS), a http://www.dod.gov, accessed on August 28, space platform that could be used for2005, p. 24.; Amitabh Mattoo, “Indian Agni-II improving the accuracy of its missile systems Missile Said Aimed at China,” Calcutta The and expansion into other weapons systems. Telegraph, available at http://www.lexis.com, “IAF Working on Weapon Platforms in Space,” accessed on August 25, 2005. The Hindu, October 7, 2003, available at [42] Rahul Bedi, “New Delhi Reveals Latest http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 24, Schedule for Missile Tests,” Jane's Defense 2005.; “India Working on Space Weapons: IAF Weekly, November 12, 2003, p. 4 Chief,” The Press Trust of India, available at [43] “Indian Defence News,” New Delhi, http://www.rediff.com, accessed on August 29, Chanakya Aerospace and Maritime Review, Vol. 2005.; “Memorandum of Understanding31, No. 5, May 1, 2005, FBIS Between the Russian Aviation and Space SAP20050623000018, accessed on August 15, Agency and the Indian Space Research2005.; “Proliferation: Threat and Response,” Organization on Cooperation in the Exploration Office of the Secretary of Defense, U.S. and Use of Outer Space for Peaceful Purposes,” Department of Defense, available at The Embassy of the Russian Federation in the http://www.dod.gov, accessed on August 28, Republic of India, November 11-13, 2003, 2005, p. 24. available [44] Press reports as earlyat as 1999 suggest an

14 3 | 9 | 0 APJ | JF imminent test of India’s ICBM. “India to Test [53] “Navy: Busy Year of War Games Ahead,” in New Long-Range Ballistic Missile: Official,” “Indian Navy to Join War Games with US, AFX News Limited, November 7, 1999,Russia, France,” New Delhi, The Asian Age, available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on July 5, 2005, FBIS, SAP20050715000020, August 25, 2005.; “India: Ballistic Missiles accessed on September 7, 2005.; Shashank Under Development,” BBC Monitoring South Sinha, “Indian Navy Interested in USS Asia, May 18, 1999, available atTrenton,” in “Indian Defense Think Tank Says http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 25, ‘USS Trenton’ May Be ‘Great Asset’ for Navy,” 2005. New Delhi, India Defense Consultants, August [45] Mark Gorwitz, “The Indian Strategic 15, 2005, FBIS SAP20050815000054, accessed Nuclear Submarine Project - An Openon September 7, 2005. Literature Analysis,” December 1996, available [54] “Talks with India Remained Warm for Six at Months, Now There is Chilliness: Chief of Naval http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/india/sub/ssn/, Staff,” in “Pakistan Gets 8 P-3C Orion Aircraft, accessed on August 29, 2005. Two Frigates from US; CNS Lauds US Help,” [46] “Indian Military Bolstered by Foreign Rawalpindi, Nawa-e Waqt, September 1, 2005, Purchases, Cooperation,” JINSA Online, April FBIS SAP20050902000048, accessed on 23, 2004, available at http://www.jinsa.org, September 7, 2005. accessed on September 7, 2005. [55] China is not the only concern of Indian [47] “No Gorshkov, but Accords Look to the strategists charting developments in the Indian Future,” Times of India via Bharat-Rakshak, Ocean. The U.S. driven Proliferation Security February 9, 2002, available Initiativeat (PSI), under which illicit transfers are http://www.bharat-rakshak.com, accessed on interdicted during shipment, has also come September 7, 2005. under scrutiny. A number of Indian critics have [48] “Bellona To Seek Intl Action Over Sunken expressed concern that the United States is Russian Sub,” Moscow Interfax, FBISmanipulating their partnership to gain “back CEP20050830950045, August 30, 2005. door entry” into the Indian Ocean for the PSI, [49] Vivek Raghuvanshi, “Salvaging thewhich many deem as already on shaky legal Sagarika: India Seeks Russian, Israeli Help in ground given Part VII of the 1982 UN Missile Development,” Asia and Pacific Rim, Convention on the Law of the Sea. India’s own Defense News, February 21, 2005, p. 14. reluctance to fall in line with the United States [50] T. S. Subramanian, “Prithvi-III Test Fired has been made particularly evident with the for First Time,” The Hindu, October 28, 2004, omission of PSI from the Indo-U.S. joint available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on statement and India’s refusal to join August August 11, 2005. 2005 U.S.-organized multinational PSI naval [51] Rahul Roy-Chaudry, “India-Defense: India exercises in Southeast Asia. Seema Mustafa, Developing Sea-Based Missile System,” IPS- “India Surrenders Ocean to US,” in “India Said Inter Press Service, September 29, 1994, to Surrender Ocean to US in Defense Pact,” available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on New Delhi, The Asian Age, FBIS August 25, 2005.; “N-Submarine Project Yet to SAP20050706000017, July 2, 2005.; Ranjit Take Off,” The Hindu, October 28, 1998, Kumar, “India Did Not Join the PSI Military available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on Exercise,” in India Stays Away from Joint Naval August 31, 2005. Exercise to Monitor Illegal Arms Transport,” [52] “New Army ‘Doctrine’ Ready for Release,” New Delhi, Navbharat Times, August 17, 2005, India, The Statesman, October 24, 2004, FBIS SAP20050817000023, accessed on available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on September 7, 2005. August 11, 2005. [56] “Annual Report – 2003-2004,” Ministry of

15 3 | 9 | 0 APJ | JF

Defence, Government of India, available at Republic of China,” A Report to Congress http://mod.nic.in/reports/MOD-English2004.pdf, Pursuant to the National Defense Authorization accessed on August 15, 2005. Act Fiscal Year 2005, Office of the Secretary of [57] “The Military Power of the People’s Defense, U.S. Department of Defense, 2005, pp. Republic of China,” A Report to Congress 21, 22. Pursuant to the National Defense Authorization [66] Ibid. Act Fiscal Year 2005, Office of the Secretary of [67] “Defense Expenditure, 2004-2005,” Defense, U.S. Department of Defense, 2005, pp. Ministry of Defense, Government of India, 23, 24, 33. available at [58] Ibid. http://mod.nic.in/aboutus/body.htm#as6, [59] Rajat Pandit, “Wait For Scorpene May accessed on September 8, 2005. Soon Be Over,” The Times of India, March 16, [68] Richard F. Grimmett, “Conventional Arms 2005, available at http://www.lexis.com,Transfers to Developing Nations, 1997-2004,” accessed on August 11, 2005. Congressional Research Service Report for [60] “China, India Seek Cooperation in Global Congress, August 29, 2005, available at Oil Quest,” Embassy of the People’s Republic of http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/52 China in India, April 4, 2005, available at 179.pdf, accessed on September 9, 2005. http://www.chinaembassy.org, accessed on [69] Ibid. August 15, 2005. [70] Ibid. [61] “India, China to Set Up Joint Group to [71] “Mei Dui Yin Kaiqi He Da Men – Yu Lianhe Forge Oil Cooperation Deals,” New Delhi, The Yindu Ezhi Zhongguo Fazhan,” (The United Press Trust of India, August 9, 2005, FBIS States Opens the Nuclear Door to India – In a SAP20050809000099, accessed on August 10, Desire to Contain China’s Growth), People’s 2005. Daily, July 20, 2005, available at [62] Penny Macrae, “AFP: India Says China Oil http://www.people.com.cn, accessed on August Cooperation at Early Stage,” Hong Kong 14, 2005. Agence France Presse, August 26, 2005, FBIS [72] “Mei Yin He Hezuo Shi Yi Zhao Xianqi Hai JPP20050826000017, available atShi Yiji Miaozhao?” (Is Nuclear Cooperation http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 26, between the United States and India a 2005.; “China Beats India to AcquireDangerous or Clever Chess Move?), CCTV.com, PetroKazakhstan,” New Delhi, The Press Trust July 21, 2005, available at of India, August 22, 2005, FBIShttp://bbs.cctv.com.cn, accessed on August 14, SAP20050822000064, available at2005.; “Mei Dui Yin Kaiqi He Da Men – Yu http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 26, Lianhe Yindu Ezhi Zhongguo Fazhan,” (The 2005. United States Opens the Nuclear Door to India [63] “The Military Power of the People’s – In a Desire to Contain China’s Growth), Republic of China,” A Report to Congress People’s Daily, July 20, 2005, available at Pursuant to the National Defense Authorization http://www.people.com.cn, accessed on August Act Fiscal Year 2005, Office of the Secretary of 14, 2005. Defense, U.S. Department of Defense, 2005, p. [73] “Indian Defence Officials Watch China- 33. Russia Military Exercises,” New Delhi, The [64] “India says China oil cooperation at early Press Trust of India, FBIS stage, will still compete,” Agence France SAP20050823000109, August 23, 2005, Presse, August 26, 2005, available atavailable at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on http://www.yahoo.com, accessed on August 31, August 26, 2005. 2005. [74] “Zhong Yin Nengyuan Xuqiu Zengjia [65] “The Military Power of the People’s Tiaozhan Meiguo?” (Will China and India’s

16 3 | 9 | 0 APJ | JF

Energy Needs Increase the Challenge to the pp, A1, A12. United States?), Muzi News, Latelinenews.com, [79] Dr. Subhash Kapila, “China-India Strategic August 12, 2005, availableAlliance – Should Not Be Unthinkable: An http://latelinenews.com/ll/chinese/1374352.sht Analysis,” South Asia Analysis Group, Paper ml, accessed on August 14, 2005.; Christopher No. 1375, May 12, 2005, available at Bodeen, “China, India Conduct Joint Naval http://www.saag.org, accessed on August 13, Exercise,” The Associated Press, The2005. Washington Post, November 14, 2003, available [80] “Treat India Like Other N-States,” The at http://www.washingtonpost.com, accessed Hindu, October 29, 1998, available at on November 14, 2003. http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 31, [75] “Zhong Yin E Goujian Zhanlue Sanjiao – 2005.; S. G. Roy, “Gandhi: India Will Reprocess Xin Anquan Guanzhu Daoxia Chuanmian Nuclear Fuel,” United Press International, Hezuo,” (China, India, and Russia Build a August 11, 1982, available at Strategic Triangle – Their New Concept of http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 31, 2005. Security Spans All Areas) Army News, [81] “Engaging India as a Global Strategic Tom.com, June 10, 2005, available at Partner,” Republican Policy Committee, United http://army.news.tom.com/1019/1021/2005610- States Senate, July 19, 2005, available at 37971.html, accessed on August 14, 2005.; http://rpc.senate.gov/_files/July1905IndiaDF.pdf “Russia-China-India Maneuvers May Be Held in , accessed on September 8, 2005. 2006,” Moscow, Agentstvo Voyennukh [82] “PRC Scholar ‘Broad Prospects’ for India- Novostey, August 26, 2005, FBIS Russia-China Strategic Triangle,” Beijing, CEP20050826027004, accessed on August 26, Beijing Review, FBIS CPP20050804000129, 2005. available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on [76] George Perkovich, India’s Nuclear Bomb – August 15, 2005. The Impact on Global Proliferation, University of California Press, Berkeley, 1999. Lora Saalman is a Research Associate at the [77] “India, United States Not Ganging Up Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control. Against China, Indian PM,” Agence France Her analyses have appeared in the online Presse, August 3, 2005, available atjournals of the Power and Interest News http://news.yahoo.com, accessed on August 15, Report, the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the 2005.; “India, US Ink Pact for Comprehensive Monterey Institute of International Studies, and Defence Cooperation,” The Press Trust of India, the Center for Nonproliferation Studies. She June 29, 2005, availablewrote at this article for Japan Focus. The views http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 17, expressed in this article do not necessarily 2005. reflect those of the Wisconsin Project on [78] Sheela Bhatt, “The Big Question: Can Nuclear Arms Control. Posted September 21, Singh Emulate China?” India Abroad, Vol. 35, 2005.

17