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CEPAL Review No132 DECEMBER • 2020 SPECIAL ISSUE COVID-19 and the socioeconomic crisis in Latin America and the Caribbean Editorial note 7 Introduction. The global economy and development in times of pandemic: the challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean Alicia Bárcena and Mario Cimoli, guest editors 9 Structural asymmetries and the health crisis: the imperative of a transformative recovery for the advancement of sustainable development in Latin America and the Caribbean Alicia Bárcena and Mario Cimoli 17 The COVID-19 crisis in Latin America in historical perspective José Antonio Ocampo 47 Building pro-development multilateralism: towards a “New” New International Economic Order Ha-Joon Chang 65 COVID-19, elites and the future political economy of inequality reduction in Latin America Benedicte Bull and Francisco Robles Rivera 77 Why the rich always stay rich (no matter what, no matter the cost) José Gabriel Palma 93 Brazil: the effects of COVID-19 and recovery Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira 133 The COVID-19 crisis and the structural problems of Latin America and the Caribbean: responding to the emergency with a long-term perspective Martín Abeles, Esteban Pérez Caldentey and Gabriel Porcile 143 Unbridled liberalism and a pandemic: at a crossroads between techno authoritarianism and a new social order Giovanni Dosi 171 The health economy in Mexico Leonardo Lomelí Vanegas 181 A “new normal” as a “new essential”? COVID-19, digital transformations and employment structures Maria Savona 195 Women’s economic autonomy during the COVID-19 pandemic Nicole Bidegain, Lucía Scuro and Iliana Vaca Trigo 209 Hyper-fortunes and the super-rich: why a wealth tax makes sense Ramon E. López and Gino Sturla 221 Central America and the pandemic: macroeconomic policy challenges Juan Carlos Moreno Brid and Rodrigo Alfonso Morales López 241 COVID-19 and social protection of poor and vulnerable groups in Latin America: a conceptual framework Nora Lustig and Mariano Tommasi 259 NO132 DECEMBER • 2020 Alicia Bárcena Executive Secretary Mario Cimoli Deputy Executive Secretary Raúl García-Buchaca Deputy Executive Secretary for Management and Programme Analysis Osvaldo Sunkel Chairman of the Editorial Board Miguel Torres Editor Alicia Bárcena Executive Secretary Mario Cimoli Deputy Executive Secretary Raúl García-Buchaca Deputy Executive Secretary for Management and Programme Analysis Osvaldo Sunkel Chair of the Editorial Board Miguel Torres Editor The CEPAL Review was founded in 1976, along with the corresponding Spanish version, Revista CEPAL, and it is published three times a year by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), which has its headquarters in Santiago. The Review has full editorial independence and follows the usual academic procedures and criteria, including the review of articles by independent external referees. The purpose of the Review is to contribute to the discussion of socioeconomic development issues in the region by offering analytical and policy approaches and articles by economists and other social scientists working both within and outside the United Nations. The Review is distributed to universities, research institutes and other international organizations, as well as to individual subscribers. The opinions expressed in the articles are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of ECLAC. The designations employed and the way in which data are presented do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. To subscribe, please visit the Web page: http://ebiz.turpin-distribution.com/products/197587-cepal-review.aspx. The complete text of the Review can also be downloaded free of charge from the ECLAC website (www.cepal.org/en). This publication, entitled CEPAL Review, is covered in the Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), published by Thomson Reuters, and in the Journal of Economic Literature (JEL), published by the American Economic Association United Nations publication ISSN: 0251-2920 LC/PUB.2021/4-P Sales No.: E.21.II.G.7 Distribution: G Copyright © United Nations, 2021 All rights reserved Printed at United Nations, Santiago S.20-00628 This publication should be cited as: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), CEPAL Review, No. 132 (LC/PUB.2021/4-P), Santiago, 2021. Requests for authorization to reproduce this work in whole or in part should be sent to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Documents and Publications Division, [email protected]. Member States of the United Nations and their governmental institutions may reproduce this work without prior authorization, but are requested to mention the source and to inform ECLAC of such reproduction. Contents Editorial note . .. 7 Introduction . The global economy and development in times of pandemic: the challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean Alicia Bárcena and Mario Cimoli, guest editors ............................... 9 Structural asymmetries and the health crisis: the imperative of a transformative recovery for the advancement of sustainable development in Latin America and the Caribbean Alicia Bárcena and Mario Cimoli ......................................... 17 The COVID-19 crisis in Latin America in historical perspective José Antonio Ocampo ................................................... 47 Building pro-development multilateralism: towards a “New” New International Economic Order Ha-Joon Chang ........................................................ 65 COVID-19, elites and the future political economy of inequality reduction in Latin America Benedicte Bull and Francisco Robles Rivera .................................. 77 Why the rich always stay rich (no matter what, no matter the cost) José Gabriel Palma ..................................................... 93 Brazil: the effects of COVID-19 and recovery Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira ............................................. 133 The COVID-19 crisis and the structural problems of Latin America and the Caribbean: responding to the emergency with a long-term perspective Martín Abeles, Esteban Pérez Caldentey and Gabriel Porcile ................... 143 Unbridled liberalism and a pandemic: at a crossroads between techno authoritarianism and a new social order Giovanni Dosi ....................................................... 171 The health economy in Mexico Leonardo Lomelí Vanegas ............................................... 181 A “new normal” as a “new essential”? COVID-19, digital transformations and employment structures Maria Savona ....................................................... 195 Women’s economic autonomy during the COVID-19 pandemic Nicole Bidegain, Lucía Scuro and Iliana Vaca Trigo ........................... 209 Hyper-fortunes and the super-rich: why a wealth tax makes sense Ramon E. López and Gino Sturla ........................................ 221 Central America and the pandemic: macroeconomic policy challenges Juan Carlos Moreno Brid and Rodrigo Alfonso Morales López .................. 241 COVID-19 and social protection of poor and vulnerable groups in Latin America: a conceptual framework Nora Lustig and Mariano Tommasi ....................................... 259 Guidelines for contributors to the CEPAL Review ........................ 271 ECLAC recent publications . 273 Explanatory notes - Three dots (...) indicate that data are not available or are not separately reported. - A dash (-) indicates that the amount is nil or negligible. - A full stop (.) is used to indicate decimals. - The word “dollars” refers to United States dollars, unless otherwise specified. - A slash (/) between years (e.g. 2013/2014) indicates a 12-month period falling between the two years. - Individual figures and percentages in tables may not always add up to the corresponding total because of rounding. Editorial note As the first year of the third decade of the twenty-first century draws to a close, it is certain to go down in the annals of world history as the year of the health emergency caused by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. During these past 12 months, the world has faced moments of tremendous uncertainty and pain as a result of the lethal disease caused by this virus, which, after emerging in the Chinese city of Wuhan in January, quickly developed into a global pandemic. At the time of writing, world health agencies estimate the number of cases of coronavirus infection to be in excess of 60 million people worldwide, and that nearly 1.4 million human beings have died from the disease. As a result of the human progress achieved over the past century, thanks to scientific advances and the steady, albeit unequal, progress in humankind’s material conditions, together with the improvement and universalization of health systems, the world had become unaccustomed to pandemic crises of such huge proportions as it faces today. The most recent forebear of the coronavirus crisis occurred a century ago, in 1918, when “Spanish flu” engulfed the world, claiming between 20 million and 40 million lives, according to historical estimates. Predictably, the COVID-19 pandemic soon triggered a global economic and social crisis. Owing to health lockdown measures of varying degrees of stringency, such as physical distancing, the closure of production units, the collapse of world trade and the lack of a safe and effective
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