The London School of Economics and Political Science the Gap Between
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The London School of Economics and Political Science The Gap between Legality and Legitimacy The Bolivian State Crisis (2000-2008) in Historical and Regional Perspective Gustavo Bonifaz Moreno A thesis submitted to the Department of Government of the London School of Economics for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, March 2017 Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MPhil/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my written consent. I declare that my thesis consists of 100,000 words. 2 Abstract The present thesis investigates the causes of the Bolivian state crisis (2000-2008). The case study is intriguing because, compared to other countries in the region, Bolivia appeared to successfully implement competitive elections and neo-liberal reforms. Nevertheless, by 2008 the country was on the verge of civil war. This sudden political collapse, I argue, shows that Bolivia represents an extreme case of a regional trend, namely the periodic opening of a gap between legality and legitimacy in periods of social change, punctuated by external shocks. Most accounts of the crisis try to explain it based on the historical prevalence of ethnic, regional or class cleavages within the Bolivian society. Other explanations claim that the crisis was caused by the inability of the country to sustain positive reforms. The former explanations fail because they try to explain what has changed, based on what has not. The latter fail to explain the sudden collapse of the system. In order to provide a better explanation of the Bolivian state crisis, I followed Samuel Huntington´s (1968) study on the relationship between social change, political institutions and instability. I revisited and revised Huntington’s theory combining historical sociology and historical institutionalism. The thesis makes a theoretical contribution through a conceptual advancement to Huntington’s approach by embedding it in a more adequate framework: the gap between legality and legitimacy. Empirically, the research is based on elite interviews, original electoral data, archival records of the CA, and secondary sources. Methodologically, a process-tracing analysis of this evidence led me to conclude that intense social changes, punctuated by external shocks, unsettled and politicised the Bolivian structure of cleavages, giving way to a situation by which political institutions were unable to process social conflicts within the constitutional structure. A cross-temporal comparative analysis of former Bolivian state crises strengthened the analytical framework. 3 Acknowledgements The present thesis would not have been possible to accomplish without the support of many persons and institutions. I would like firstly to express my gratitude to a handful of what I consider friends for life, but also mentors. My supervisor, Professor Francisco Panizza has given me invaluable intellectual and moral support throughout the whole process of writing this thesis and before, when I met him while doing my masters in Comparative Politics (Latin America) here at the LSE. My gratitude goes also to my academic advisor, Professor Jean-Paul Faguet from whom I learnt so much in the process of exchanging ideas about my beloved country, Bolivia, a country to which he has a special affection for. Carlos Toranzo, Moira Zuazo, George Gray Molina and Diego Ayo are more than renowned Bolivian academics that I admire since my early undergraduate years in La Paz. They are also friends and mentors from whom I learnt priceless lessons in the tricky art of thinking Bolivia. I would also like to thank the team of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Bolivia, a special institution occupying a high standing place in the history of Bolivian democracy. FES- ILDIS, as it is known in Bolivia, hosted me as a researcher at different stages of my career. I benefitted from the friendship of all the colleagues I met then and from the support of four of its directors. Yesko Quiroga, Willi Haan, Kathrein Hölscher and Anja Dargatz have always supported my academic objectives and for that, I will always be grateful. I would also like to thank Antonio Aramayo and Marisol Quiroga from UNIR-Bolivia, Alfonso Ferrufino from International IDEA, Carlos Camargo, Alberto García and Fernando García from the UNDP, for their support during my field work between 2012 and 2013. I would also like to thank the people that I interviewed, they are important pieces in the puzzle of Bolivia’s contemporary history, and they gave me their time and shared their invaluable experiences with me. I would like to express my special gratitude to Ellie Knott, Maria Carvalho and Ranj Alaaldin for their suggestions to improve the level of English of the present work. I am one of those lucky persons who met his best friends during childhood and managed to keep their friendship throughout the years, even while doing a PhD, which speaks very well of their affection and patience towards me. Esteban Szasz, Pavel Díaz and Christian 4 Lünstedt for their support during these decades. I have no words to express how grateful I am to my partner, Janna Miletzki, who gave me emotional support but also helped me with insightful and accurate comments on my work. You turned the worst of moments into the best of times. I would not be here without the encouragement of my sister Carola Bonifaz and my brother in law, Oscar Montero. Both of them and my brother Miguel always believed in me, and that belief was an invaluable source of spiritual strength. My parents had always supported me in different dimensions. However I would like to thank them for two special things. I learnt from my father the love for books and science, a priceless gift. Finally, I would like to thank my mother for teaching me that dreams can come true if we fight for them tenaciously. I would like to dedicate this thesis to my nieces Camila and Maria Belén and to my nephew, Mateo. I wish them a future in which they can accomplish their own dreams. 5 Abbreviations ADN Acción Democrática Nacionalista CA Constituent Assembly CD Constitutional Declaration CIDOB Central Indígena del Oriente Boliviano COB Central Obrera Boliviana COMIBOL Corporación Minera de Bolivia CONAMAQ Confederación Nacional de Markas y Ayllus del Qullasuyo CONALCAM Consejo Nacional para el Cambio CONALDE Consejo Nacional Democrático CONDEPA Conciencia de Patria CSUTCB Confederación Sindical Unica de Trabajadores Campesinos de Bolivia FEJUVE Federación de Juntas Vecinales de El Alto FSB Falange Socialista Boliviana FSTMB Federación Sindical de Trabajadores Mineros de Bolivia GIZ German Federal Enterprise for International Cooperation ILO International Labour Organisation IMF International Monetary Fund LCCA Law for the Calling of the Constituent Assembly LCFRA Law Calling for the Referendum on Autonomies LFNCR Law for the Need of a Constitutional Reform LRC Law for the Reform of the Constitution MAS-IPSP Movimiento al Socialismo-Instrumento Político por la Soberania de los Pueblos MBL Movimiento Bolivia Libre MIP Movimiento Indígena Pachakuti MIR Movimiento de Izquierda Revolucionaria MNR Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario MRTKL Movimiento Revolucionario Tupaj Katari para la Liberación MSM Movimiento sin Miedo NFR Nueva Fuerza Republicana OTBs Organizaciones Territoriales de Base PIR Partido de la Izquierda Revolucionaria PODEMOS Poder Democrático y Social POR Partido Obrero Revolucionario PPL Popular Participation Law RADEPA Razón de Patria RN Revolutionary Nationalism UCS Unidad Cívica Solidaridad UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation UN Unidad Nacional UP Unity Pact USAID United States Agency for International Development WB World Bank TCOs Tierras Comunitarias de Origen 6 CONTENTS Chapter One ....................................................................................................................... 14 Theoretical and Methodological Frameworks ................................................................... 14 1. 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 14 1.2 The Research Question and Hypotheses .................................................................. 16 1.3 Explaining the Bolivian State Crisis ........................................................................ 19 1.3.1 Competing Explanations for the Bolivian State Crisis ..................................... 19 1.3.2 An Alternative Explanation to the Bolivian State Crisis: From the Political Gap to the Gap between Legality and Legitimacy ............................................................ 24 1.3.3 Huntington Revisited. Between Historical Sociology and Historical Institutionalism .......................................................................................................... 26 1.3.4 A Revised Theoretical Model ........................................................................... 43 1.4 Methodology and Research Design ......................................................................... 45 1.5 The structure of the thesis .......................................................................................