Arbitrary Detention, Torture, and “Disappearances”
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Key Actors and Abbreviations
Key actors and abbreviations The Assad regime and its allies ‘The regime’ Bashar al-Assad, Syrian President 2000– Hafez al-Assad, Syrian President 1971–2000 Asma al-Assad (née Akhras), Syria’s First Lady 2000– Maher al-Assad, brother of Bashar al-Assad, Commander of Republican Guard and 4th Armoured Division Anisa Makhlouf, mother of Bashar al-Assad Assif Shawkat, brother-in-law of Bashar al-Assad, head of military intelligence 2005–9, deputy minister of defence 2011–12 Rami Makhlouf, cousin of Bashar al-Assad, wealthy businessman Manaf Tlass, Republican Guard General, defected 2012 Farouk al-Sharaa, First Vice President of Syria 2006– Walid al-Muallem, Foreign Minister 2006– Bouthaina Shabaan, political and media adviser to the Syrian President 2008– Ba’ath – Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party, the ruling party of Syria since 1963 Mukhabarat – Set of notorious regime intelligence agencies Shabiha – Gangs of irregular pro-regime thugs NDF – National Defence Force, formed 2013 Russia Vladimir Putin, Russian President 2000–8, 2012–, Russian Prime Minister 2008–12 Dmitri Medvedev, Russian President 2008–12, Russian Prime Minister 2012–20 Sergei Lavrov, Foreign Minister 2004– Mikhail Bogdanov, Deputy Foreign Minister 2011– Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran 1989– xii 5146.indd xii 19/06/20 5:00 PM KEY ACTORS AND ABBREVIATIONS xiii Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iranian President 2005–13 Hassan Rouhani, Iranian President 2013– Ali Akbar Salehi, Foreign Minister 2010–13 Mohammad Javad Zarif, Foreign Minister 2013– Qassem Suleimani, Commander -
PRISM Syrian Supplemental
PRISM syria A JOURNAL OF THE CENTER FOR COMPLEX OPERATIONS About PRISM PRISM is published by the Center for Complex Operations. PRISM is a security studies journal chartered to inform members of U.S. Federal agencies, allies, and other partners Vol. 4, Syria Supplement on complex and integrated national security operations; reconstruction and state-building; 2014 relevant policy and strategy; lessons learned; and developments in training and education to transform America’s security and development Editor Michael Miklaucic Communications Contributing Editors Constructive comments and contributions are important to us. Direct Alexa Courtney communications to: David Kilcullen Nate Rosenblatt Editor, PRISM 260 Fifth Avenue (Building 64, Room 3605) Copy Editors Fort Lesley J. McNair Dale Erikson Washington, DC 20319 Rebecca Harper Sara Thannhauser Lesley Warner Telephone: Nathan White (202) 685-3442 FAX: (202) 685-3581 Editorial Assistant Email: [email protected] Ava Cacciolfi Production Supervisor Carib Mendez Contributions PRISM welcomes submission of scholarly, independent research from security policymakers Advisory Board and shapers, security analysts, academic specialists, and civilians from the United States Dr. Gordon Adams and abroad. Submit articles for consideration to the address above or by email to prism@ Dr. Pauline H. Baker ndu.edu with “Attention Submissions Editor” in the subject line. Ambassador Rick Barton Professor Alain Bauer This is the authoritative, official U.S. Department of Defense edition of PRISM. Dr. Joseph J. Collins (ex officio) Any copyrighted portions of this journal may not be reproduced or extracted Ambassador James F. Dobbins without permission of the copyright proprietors. PRISM should be acknowledged whenever material is quoted from or based on its content. -
INSIDE SYRIA: 18 MONTHS on Conference Report
INSIDE SYRIA: 18 MONTHS ON Conference Report Thursday 20 September 2012 London School of Economics and Political Science TABLE OF CONTENTS Conference Programme 2 Introduction 3 The Regime 3 The Opposition 5 Economic Implications 7 Social Implications 8 Opportunities for Further Research 9 INSIDE SYRIA: 18 MONTHS ON Conference Report 1 CONFERENCE PROGRAMME Panel 1 – Inside The Regime The makeup of the Syrian Leadership, the Military and Shabiha, Business Networks and Alawis What went wrong with the Bashar Al-Assad Presidency? Dr Christopher Phillips, Queen Mary University The Military Balance of Power: The State of the Syrian Army (Retired) Bridgadier General Akil Hashem How Regional and International Factors Impact the Syrian Conflict Ghayth Armanazi, Political Analyst and Former Arab League Ambassador Panel 2 – Inside the Opposition The Nature and Dynamics of the Various Opposition Groups and Movements, Focussing on those Inside Syria The Syrian Opposition: A Balance Sheet Rime Allaf, Chatham House The Syrian Opposition: A View from the Inside Suheir Atassi, National Council of the Damascus Declaration for Democratic Change Armed Groups in Libya: A Comparative Look Brian McQuinn, Oxford University / Centre on Conflict, Development and Peace Building Panel 3 – Identity in Syria The Complex Influences on Identity and Allegiance and how these may affect the Course of the Struggle Violence as a Modality of Government in Syria Professor Salwa Ismail, SOAS Divide, Terrorise and Rule in the Syrian `Black Hole State’ Dr Abdelwahab El-Affendi, -
Syrian Muslim Brotherhood Still a Crucial Actor. Inclusivity the Order of the Day in Dealings with Syria's Opposition
Introduction Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik ments German Institute for International and Security Affairs m Co Syrian Muslim Brotherhood Still a Crucial Actor WP S Inclusivity the Order of the Day in Dealings with Syria’s Opposition Petra Becker Summer 2013 brought severe setbacks for the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood. Firstly, one of its most important regional supporters, Qatar lost its leading role in the Group of Friends of the Syrian People, the alliance of states and organisations backing Syria’s opposition, to Saudi Arabia. Secondly, the Brotherhood has been hit by stinging criti- cism of the Egyptian MB’s performance in government and the media witch-hunt against political Islam following the ouster of Mohammed Morsi. In the face of these events the Syrian Brotherhood – to date still a religious and social movement – post- poned the founding of a political party planned for late June. Thirdly, the Brotherhood – like its partners in the National Coalition which opposes the Syrian regime – bet on an American-backed military intervention in August/September. This intervention did not occur due to the American-Russian brokered agreement providing for Syria to join the Convention on the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. As a result, the National Coalition and its Supreme Military Command have faced defections of major rebel forces, which may lead to a major shift towards Jihadi Salafism and the marginalization of moderate forces on the ground. Yet the Brother- hood remains the best-organised political force within the Syrian opposition alliances and still sees itself becoming the leading force in post-revolutionary Syria. Germany and Europe should encourage moderate forces whatever their political colours and foster the implementation of democratic concepts. -
Transformations in United States Policy Toward Syria Under Bashar
Nova Southeastern University NSUWorks Department of Conflict Resolution Studies Theses CAHSS Theses and Dissertations and Dissertations 1-1-2017 Transformations in United States Policy toward Syria Under Bashar Al Assad A Unique Case Study of Three Presidential Administrations and a Projection of Future Policy Directions Mohammad Alkahtani Nova Southeastern University, [email protected] This document is a product of extensive research conducted at the Nova Southeastern University College of Arts, Humanities, and Social Sciences. For more information on research and degree programs at the NSU College of Arts, Humanities, and Social Sciences, please click here. Follow this and additional works at: https://nsuworks.nova.edu/shss_dcar_etd Part of the Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons Share Feedback About This Item NSUWorks Citation Mohammad Alkahtani. 2017. Transformations in United States Policy toward Syria Under Bashar Al Assad A Unique Case Study of Three Presidential Administrations and a Projection of Future Policy Directions. Doctoral dissertation. Nova Southeastern University. Retrieved from NSUWorks, College of Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences – Department of Conflict Resolution Studies. (103) https://nsuworks.nova.edu/shss_dcar_etd/103. This Dissertation is brought to you by the CAHSS Theses and Dissertations at NSUWorks. It has been accepted for inclusion in Department of Conflict Resolution Studies Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of NSUWorks. For more information, please contact [email protected]. -
Situation Estimation the High Negotiations Committee The
www.jusoor.co Situation Estimation 0 The High Negotiations Committee The Political Course and Outcome www.jusoor.co Situation Estimation 1 The High Negotiations Committee The Political Course and Outcome www.jusoor.co Situation Estimation 2 Preface On the 9-10/12/2015, the High Negotiation Committee (HNC) had emerged after Riyadh Conference in order to unify the military and political forces of the Syrian opposition in addition to forming a delegation that can negotiate in the 3rd round of Geneva Negotiations. Since its establishment until its recent end, HNC considered as an exceptional situation that took place in the Syrian opposition because was a functional body with specific objectives contrary to the other political bodies. However, it used to fulfil other objectives that were not related to its tasks. Further, HNC was able to establish unique relations with the regional actors, while the Syrian National Coalition faced many situations with regards to regional polarization as a result of the trends of its president. Many political achievements were fulfilled by HNC during the past two years but it had failed to perform well in regards to its major task of negotiating the Syrian regime and lacked flexibility in dealing with this process. Conflicts also took place between HNC and the National Coalition, where the two political bodies worked in parallel lines that intersected sometimes. The course of Astana was in line with the course of HNC and caused the forced absence of HNC’s role in this regard. This report analyzes the conditions related to HNC’s emergence, course, and achievements during the last two years. -
Bulletin De Liaison Et D'information
INSTITUT KUDE RPARD IS E Bulletin de liaison et d’information n°332 novembre 2012 La publication de ce Bulletin bénéficie de subventions du Ministère français des Affaires étrangères (DGCID) et du Fonds d’action et de soutien pour l’intégration et la lutte contre les discriminations (FASILD) ————— Ce bulletin paraît en français et anglais Prix au numéro : France: 6 € — Etranger : 7,5 € Abonnement annuel (12 numéros) France : 60 € — Etranger : 75 € Périodique mensuel Directeur de la publication : Mohamad HASSAN Numéro de la Commission Paritaire : 659 13 A.S. ISBN 0761 1285 INSTITUT KURDE, 106, rue La Fayette - 75010 PARIS Tél. : 01- 48 24 64 64 - Fax : 01- 48 24 64 66 www.fikp.org E-mail: [email protected] Bulletin de liaison et d’information de l’Institut kurde de Paris N° 332 novembre 2012 • KURDISTAN D’IRAK : FORCES « DIJLA » CONTRE « HAMRIN », KURDES ET IRAKIENS AU BORD DE LA GUERRE • SYRIE : VERS UNE FORCE MILITAIRE UNIFIÉE DES KURDES ? • TURQUIE : DÉCISION DE JUSTICE STUPÉFIANTE DANS L’AFFAIRE PINAR SELEK • CULTURE : MORT DE SHOKROLLAH BABAN • CINEMA : TROIS FILMS KURDES À L’AFFICHE CULTURE KURDISTAN D’IRAK : FORCES « DIJLA » CONTRE « HEMRIN », KURDES ET IRAKIENS AU BORD DE LA GUERRE peine le conflit sur les région est sous la responsabilité pas reconnaître les forces Dijla ni hydrocarbures tempo - des Conseils provinciaux et les croire à leur succès opérationnel. rairement apaisé, c’est mouvements des forces Dijla À au sujet des régions déstabiliseront la sécurité de Loin de baisser le ton, Maliki a kurdes séparées du cette région et en bouleverseront envenimé la polémique en lan - Gouvernement Régional du la réalité politique. -
Caught Between Autocracy and Jihadism. Syriaʼs Christians Hope
Introduction Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Comments Caught between Autocracy and Jihadism WP Syria’s Christians Hope for the Implementation of Geneva I Petra Becker S The discourse conducted by Syria’s Christians since March 2011 reveals that many of them have now turned their back on the protest movement, despite their initial sym- pathy and even involvement with it. These Christians have not turned away out of any deeply held convictions in support of the regime, but because they are worried by the militarisation and radicalisation of the revolution, and by the fact that after three years the opposition has still not shown itself to be a credible alternative to the regime. German and European policymakers should continue working towards a political solu- tion and avoid supporting any particular religious or ethnic groups at the expense of others, because apart from those in areas where foreign Jihadists operate, Christians in Syria are no more at risk than other Syrians. Christians are firmly rooted in Syrian soci- motivated violence. In various places, ety, and account for an estimated 8–10 there have been reports of local Muslim percent of the population. The three largest populations coming to the defence of of their eleven denominations are the Christians when they were attacked by Greek Orthodox, Armenian Orthodox foreign Jihadists. and Greek Catholic communities. Apart Many Christians hope that the situation from the Armenians, the Assyrians and the will stabilise, allowing them to resume Chaldeans, Christians are among the oldest their lives as before. The Armenians are less inhabitants of the modern state of Syria. -
Is It Possible to Understand the Syrian Revolution Through the Prism of Social Media? Juliette Harkin University of East Anglia
WESTMINSTER PAPERS VOLUME 9 ISSUE 2 / APRIL 2013 IS IT POSSIBLE TO UNDERSTAND THE SYRIAN REVOLUTION THROUGH THE PRISM OF SOCIAL MEDIA? Juliette Harkin University of East Anglia Juliette Harkin, M.Phil Oxon, is a researcher and consultant on the Arab media and a PhD student undertaking research on Syria in the School of Political, Social and International Studies at the University of East Anglia. Her M.Phil thesis (2009) focused on the changing practice of journalism in Syria. The aim of this article is to explore a renewed and radical ‘media culture’ that has developed in the extraordinary conditions of the Syrian revolution. The article quickly dismisses the focus on the technology and platforms while using small-scale ethnography to examine social networking sites like Facebook and to underscore the diversity of content being produced by Syrians. It notes how the Syrian media revolution is clearly well under way and how radical, alternative forms of media production are flourishing. KEYWORDS media, radical alternative media, revolt, semi-published, social media, social networking sites, Syria JULIETTE HARKIN: University of East Anglia 92 93 IS IT POSSIBLE TO UNDERSTAND THE SYRIAN REVOLUTION THROUGH THE PRISM OF SOCIAL MEDIA? Juliette Harkin University of East Anglia The Arab revolutions have reminded the world that radical change can be effected by the people, rather than by top-down regime change or ‘transitology’ models that have prevailed in much academic literature (see critique in the Latin American context by Sparks, 2010). For Syrians irreversible transformations happened in the maelstrom of the revolt; they did not wait for the regime to fall or for discussion to commence about media reform blueprints. -
Private Discounts to Print
Dissent and Reform in the Arab World: Empowering Democrats A Report of the American Enterprise Institute Dissent and Reform in the Arab World Project Edited by Jeffrey Azarva, Danielle Pletka, and Michael Rubin The AEI Press Publisher for the American Enterprise Institute WASHINGTON, D.C. AEI Press Publisher for the American Enterprise Institute 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W. Washington D.C., 20036 www.aei.org/books © 2008 by the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without permission in writing from the American Enterprise Institute except in the case of brief quotations embodied in news articles, critical articles, or reviews. The views expressed in the publications of the American Enterprise Institute are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the staff, advisory panels, officers, or trustees of AEI. Printed in the United States of America Contents INTRODUCTION, Jeffrey Azarva, Danielle Pletka, and Michael Rubin 1 PART I: ESSAYS BY PROGRAM PARTICIPANTS 9 1. BAHRAIN 11 Challenging Government Control of Media Omran Salman 11 2. EGYPT 19 Challenges to Democratization Ayat M. Abul-Futtouh 19 3. IRAQ 26 Pluralism—Its Wealth and Its Misery Haider Saeed 26 The Development of Shi’ite Islamic Political Theory Sama Hadad 32 4. JORDAN 41 Building a Political Will Jamil al-Nimri 41 The Challenge of Progress Emad Omar 51 5. LEBANON 59 Together: Equal but Different Jad al-Akhaoui 59 Hezbollah and the Problem of State Control Lokman Slim 63 A Country to Be Born Najat Sharafeddine 71 6. -
Democracy to the Rescue
AJT-10 MIDDLE EAST Andrew Tabler is an Institute Fellow based in Damascus and Beirut studying Lebanese ICWA affairs and Syrian reform. Democracy to the Rescue LETTERS By Andrew Tabler MARCH 2006 DAMASCUS, Syria–As I approached the demonstration, I realized that the more Since 1925 the Institute of things change in Syria, the more the state’s reaction stays the same. It was March Current World Affairs (the Crane- 9, the 43rd anniversary of the declaration of “emergency law” in Syria. For the Rogers Foundation) has provided second year in a row, members of the Syrian Students’ National Union (SSNU) long-term fellowships to enable were busy beating up and chasing off opposition figures staging a sit-in in front outstanding young professionals of the old Ministry of Justice — a stone’s throw away from the radio station where to live outside the United States martial law was declared in 1963 the morning after the Ba’ath Party seized power and write about international in a military coup. Multi-party politics in Syria was suspended that day, all in the areas and issues. An exempt operating foundation endowed by the late Charles R. Crane, the Institute is also supported by contributions from like-minded individuals and foundations. TRUSTEES Bryn Barnard Joseph Battat Mary Lynne Bird Steven Butler Sharon F. Doorasamy Peter Geithner Gary Hartshorn Katherine Roth Kono Cheng Li Peter Bird Martin Dasa Obereigner A mob from the Syrian Students’ National Union (SSNU) abuse and assault a member David Z. Robinson of Syria’s opposition protesting 43 years of “Emergency Rule” in Syria on March 9. -
Syria's Military Opposition
Jeffrey White Andrew J. Tabler Aaron Y. Zelin SYRIA’S MILITARY HOW EFFECTIVE, OPPOSITION UNITED, OR EXTREMIST? SYRIA’S MILITARY HOW EFFECTIVE, OPPOSITION UNITED, OR EXTREMIST? Jeffrey White Andrew J. Tabler Aaron Y. Zelin POLICY FOCUS 128 | SEPTEMBER 2013 THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. © 2013 by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy Published in 2013 in the United States of America by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 1828 L Street NW, Suite 1050, Washington, DC 20036. Cover photo: A member of the Free Syrian Army stands guard at a checkpoint after clashes with pro-government forces in Salqin city in Idlib, October 2012. REUTERS/Asmaa Waguih Contents Update U.S. Military Action in Response to the August 21 Chemical Weapons Attack ■ v Introduction Posing the Question, Patrick Clawson ■ 1 1. The Military Opposition on the Ground, Jeffrey White ■ 3 2. Opposition Unity and Western Supply, Andrew J. Tabler ■ 20 3. Causes for Pause: Spoilers and Risk, Aaron Y. Zelin ■ 25 Conclusion Implications: Realistic Appraisal, Targeted Assistance, Patrick Clawson ■ 35 The Authors ■ 37 ■ Map 1. Areas of Control ■ 2 Tables 1. Areas of Control and in Dispute, July 2013 ■ 4 2. Rebel Combat Effectiveness in Syria ■ 11 3. Examples of Rebel “Operations” ■ 11 4. Claimed Regime Armor Losses, March—May 2013 ■ 14 Figures 1.