Introduction Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Comments Caught between Autocracy and Jihadism WP Syria’s Christians Hope for the Implementation of Geneva I Petra Becker S The discourse conducted by Syria’s Christians since March 2011 reveals that many of them have now turned their back on the protest movement, despite their initial sym- pathy and even involvement with it. These Christians have not turned away out of any deeply held convictions in support of the regime, but because they are worried by the militarisation and radicalisation of the revolution, and by the fact that after three years the opposition has still not shown itself to be a credible alternative to the regime. German and European policymakers should continue working towards a political solu- tion and avoid supporting any particular religious or ethnic groups at the expense of others, because apart from those in areas where foreign Jihadists operate, Christians in Syria are no more at risk than other Syrians. Christians are firmly rooted in Syrian soci- motivated violence. In various places, ety, and account for an estimated 8–10 there have been reports of local Muslim percent of the population. The three largest populations coming to the defence of of their eleven denominations are the Christians when they were attacked by Greek Orthodox, Armenian Orthodox foreign Jihadists. and Greek Catholic communities. Apart Many Christians hope that the situation from the Armenians, the Assyrians and the will stabilise, allowing them to resume Chaldeans, Christians are among the oldest their lives as before. The Armenians are less inhabitants of the modern state of Syria. optimistic, their memories clouded by the Particularly in rural areas, people are very genocide of their ancestors during World much aware of this rootedness. Many Mus- War I in what is now Turkey. The same is lims in rural areas even know which of true of the Chaldeans and Assyrians, who their ancestors converted from Christianity fled to the Syrian Euphrates region after to Islam; the other side of their clan remains World War I in response to massacres of the Christian but is still seen as extended family. Christian population in Iraq. This knowledge of common roots lives on to this day, and helps to explain why, during three years of conflict, Christians have so rarely been the target of religiously Petra Becker is a Research Fellow in the project “Elite change and new social mobilization in the Arab world” SWP Comments 29 realized by the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP). The project is funded by the German Foreign Office in the framework of June 2014 the transformation partnerships with the Arab World and the Robert Bosch Stiftung. It cooperates with the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung and the Ph.D. grant programs of the Heinrich Böll Stiftung and the Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung. 1 Regional Differences Rebel-Controlled Areas Christian settlements are spread through- The regime has lost control over the out the whole of Syria but, like other seg- provinces of Aleppo, Idlib, Raqqa und Deir ments of the population, Christians have ez-Zor, and most Christians have fled from fled their homes to escape the fighting. As a them. The main reason for their flight was result, the original demographic spread has one that equally affected their Muslim changed considerably, and the situation of neighbours: the threat of fighting and area Christians varies a great deal, depending bombardment, which the regime inflicts on the forces in control of different parts upon areas no longer under its control. of the country. Furthermore, in rebel-held areas practically all sources of income have dried up. Fear of Jihadists, by contrast, was a less pressing The Kurdish North-East reason to flee. After regime-controlled media After the uprising began in 2011, the north- had initially fuelled this fear, despite a lack east remained mostly calm because the of any particular cause for concern, the regime had bought the allegiance of large threat did become more severe during the parts of the Kurdish opposition. As soon course of 2013. as demonstrations broke out, major con- Christians are at particularly high risk cessions were made to the Kurds, who up anywhere ISIS is active, although practi- to that point had been the most heavily cally all Christians have left such areas. In marginalised ethnic minority. The regime March 2014 it was reported from Raqqa allowed the Kurdish Democratic Union province that ISIS was forcing the few Party (PYD) – the Syrian branch of the remaining Christians there to pay the jizya, Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which a capitation tax that was required of reli- operates in Turkey – to take charge of the gious minorities under the Ottoman empire region’s security, and enforce law and order for example. In current reports of public on its behalf. executions, the victims are generally The historical experience of the Arme- fighters from rival rebel groups or political nians, Chaldeans and Assyrians was a key activists who stand up to ISIS. reason why the majority of them left the According to statements by church north-east long before the first Jihadist representatives and human rights organisa- groups arrived there. Moreover, they were tions, there have so far been very few reli- able to reunite with family members giously motivated murders of Christians among large diaspora communities of throughout the country. In Aleppo, Chris- Assyrians and Arameans, particularly in tian institutions and Christian activists are Sweden, the Netherlands and Germany. working in the rebel-held part of the city Since 2013 Kurdish areas have been (though only in small numbers). This is also regularly threatened by Jihadist militias, true (or was true) of rebel strongholds in especially the al-Qaeda affiliated group the disputed areas, such as the old town centre Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). This of Homs or the town of Yabroud in the Anti- has led many Christians in the region to Lebanon mountains, where Christians move closer to the left-wing secular PYD, organised a shared civil administration which, according to its manifesto, champi- together with the Sunni majority without ons the rights of minorities. However, the being subject to discrimination. When in PYD has itself brutally persecuted political mid-2013 Jihadists from outside the area enemies in the past, and so it seems doubt- shot at churches in Yabroud, the local coun- ful that it can be a guarantor of pluralism cil posted sentries in front of the churches, and democracy. thus preventing further hostilities. It was not until mid-March 2014, when the govern- ment army and Hezbollah attempted to SWP Comments 29 June 2014 2 recapture the town, that most of the in- the only region in Syria where Christians habitants fled. They were fearful of regime make up the majority of the population. forces, who in recapturing the neighbour- According to estimates, the number of its ing town of Deir Atiyah had gone on a loot- residents has quadrupled since 2011 due to ing spree, shot civilians indiscriminately the immigration of Christians, mostly from and burnt their bodies later. Homs but also from Damascus and Aleppo. Disputed Areas Reasons for Fleeing and In the west-central Syrian provinces of Places of Refuge Hama and Homs, fighting has continued to Apart from the fighting, bombardment and flare up between regime forces and rebels. poverty, another major reason for fleeing is This, along with the desperate security widespread crime. Neither the regime forces situation in general, has caused approxi- nor the rebels are paid well enough to sup- mately half of the Christians to leave their port their families, and so they exploit the villages. Large parts of the city of Homs population by extorting money from them have been destroyed by army bombard- at checkpoints or taking passers-by hostage. ment. Residents report that there are no Both sides feel encouraged to engage in this longer any neighbourhoods in which behaviour, as they are confident that they Sunnis and Alawites live together. Never- will not be called to account for it. Further- theless, Christians in Homs still live in more, common criminals often pose as mixed neighbourhoods (some with Alawites militia members of one side or the other, and some with Sunnis), without any major and commit crimes in their name. The conflicts arising. regime contributed to this situation in the In Deraa province the frontlines are first year of the revolution by enacting shifting constantly between the regime amnesties that allowed common criminals forces, the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and to be released. Residents of all parts of the Jihadists, who entered the country from country complain that the regime recruited Jordan to form Jabhat an-Nusra. Conse- many of these small-time criminals, who quently, most Christians have also fled were already known to the police, into their from the province. Christians in the south- militias. These so-called “Popular Commit- west area around Damascus and the Golan tees” are supposed to provide security in Heights, on the other hand, have mostly their local neighbourhoods, but in fact remained in their villages, having appar- often do the opposite. ently come to an arrangement with both The uncertain political situation is an- regime forces and local FSA units. other factor which could drive the Chris- tians out of the country permanently. If made to choose sides, Christians would Regime-controlled Areas tend to side with the Assad regime rather Christians have also migrated from areas than the opposition; yet in conversation under regime control, such as Damascus most of them readily admit that they see no and the coastal mountain range.