Studies in the History of Statistics and Probability Vol. 18 Compiled by Oscar Sheynin Berlin 2020 Contents I am the author of all the contributions listed below Notation I. Prehistory of the theory of probability, 1974 II. Poisson and statistics, 2012 III. Simon Newcomb as a statistician, 2002 IV. Mathematical treatment of astronomical observations, 1973 V. Gauss and geodetic observations, 1994 VI. Gauss, Bessel and the adjustment of triangulation, 2001 VII. The theory of probability. Definition and relation with statistics, 1998
[email protected] 2 Notation Notation S, G, n refers to downloadable file n placed on my website www.sheynin.de which is being diligently copied by Google (Google, Oscar Sheynin, Home). I apply this notation in case of sources either rare or those in my translation into English. L, M, R = Leningrad, Moscow, in Russian 3 I On the Prehistory of the Theory of Probability Arch. Hist. Ex. Sci., vol. 12, N. 2, 1974, pp. 97 – 141 1. Introduction Evidently, none of the traditional sciences busies itself about the accidental, says ARISTOTLE1, continuing that this (the accidental) none of the recognized sciences considers, but only sophistic‚ and repeats himself m other places2. However, this opinion is wide of the mark since neither does the modern theory of probability busy itself with chance, but rather with the laws of chance, with the probable2a. And ARISTOTLE describes rhetoric as an art of persuasion based on probabilities (§ 3.2). Moreover, reasoning on the probable abound in various sciences in antiquity. The study of this aspect of various sciences before the origin of the theory of probability (i.