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Random Sequence Perception Amongst Finance and Accounting Personnel: Can We Measure Illusion of Control, a Type I Error, Or Illusion of Chaos, a Type II Error?

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Random Sequence Perception Amongst Finance and Accounting Personnel: Can We Measure Illusion of Control, a Type I Error, Or Illusion of Chaos, a Type II Error? Rollins College Rollins Scholarship Online Dissertations from the Executive Doctorate in Business Administration Program Crummer Graduate School of Business 2020 Random Sequence Perception Amongst Finance and Accounting Personnel: Can We Measure Illusion Of Control, A Type I Error, or Illusion Of Chaos, A Type II Error? Keith I. Taylor Rollins College, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarship.rollins.edu/dba_dissertations Recommended Citation Taylor, Keith I., "Random Sequence Perception Amongst Finance and Accounting Personnel: Can We Measure Illusion Of Control, A Type I Error, or Illusion Of Chaos, A Type II Error?" (2020). Dissertations from the Executive Doctorate in Business Administration Program. 30. https://scholarship.rollins.edu/dba_dissertations/30 This Dissertation - Open Access is brought to you for free and open access by the Crummer Graduate School of Business at Rollins Scholarship Online. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations from the Executive Doctorate in Business Administration Program by an authorized administrator of Rollins Scholarship Online. For more information, please contact [email protected]. RANDOM SEQUENCE PERCEPTION AMONGST FINANCE AND ACCOUNTING PERSONNEL: CAN WE MEASURE ILLUSION OF CONTROL, A TYPE 1 ERROR, OR ILLUSION OF CHAOS, A TYPE II ERROR? By Keith I. Taylor A Dissertation Presented in Partial Fulfillment of Requirements for the Degree of Executive Doctor of Business Administration in the Crummer Graduate School of Business, Rollins College Winter Park, Florida 2020 Copyright by Keith I. Taylor 2020 ii Signature Page Dissertation Defense: 31 August 2020 DBA Candidate: Keith Taylor The content and format of the dissertation are appropriate and acceptable for the awarding of the degree of Doctor of Business Administration Committee Chair Halil Kiymaz, Ph.D.: ___________________________ Committee Second Nana Amoah, Ph.D.: ___________________________ iii Acknowledgments To my living family and my deceased ancestors through whom I received the wandering spirit that made this effort possible. To my faculty chair, Dr. Halil Kiymaz; second, Dr. Nana Amoah; reader, Dr. Koray Simsek; technical advisor, Dr. Shalini Gopalkrishnan; writing coach, Christopher Posey; and the 2017-2020 Crummer Rollins faculty. All pilot respondents; Qualtrics personnel, panels, and respondents. Lisa Czapka, Duncan McCulloch, Teresa Lovett, and to those whose inspirational ideas facilitated this work. “To understand the misperception of randomness is to gain power, not over fate, but over ourselves.” Poundstone (2014) “… living with delusion that we don’t even realize.” Silver (2012) “‘Is chance fair?’ was a children’s question.” Bennett (1998) “Perceiving events as random or non-random has significance for the conduct of human affairs, since matters of consequence may depend on it.” Bar-Hillel and Wagenaar (1991) “Our life is a series of purposeful random events.” Beno Karacsony iv Abstract The purpose of this dissertation was to determine if finance and accounting personnel could distinguish between random and non-random time-series strings and to determine what types of errors they would make. These individuals averaging 13 years of experience were unable to distinguish non-random patterns from random strings in an assessment composed of statistical process control (SPC) charts. Respondents scored no better than guessing which was also assessed with a series of true-false questions. Neither over-alternation (oscillation) nor under- alternation (trend) strategies were able to predict type I or type II error rates, i.e. illusion of control or illusion of chaos. Latent class analysis methods within partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) were successful in uncovering segments or groups of respondents with large explained variance and significant path models. Relationships between desirability of control, personal fear of invalidity, and error rates were more varied than expected. Yet, some segments tended to illusion of control while others to illusion of chaos. Similar effects were also observed when substituting a true-false guessing assessment for the SPC assessment with some loss of explained variance and weaker path coefficients. Respondents also provided their perceptions and thoughts of randomness for both SPC and true-false assessments. Keywords: random sequence perception, time series, statistical process control charts, randomness, patterns, guessing strategies, behavioral finance, Nelson’s rules, finance, accounting, quality improvement process, partial least squares structural equation modeling, desirability of control, personal fear of invalidity, illusion of control, illusion of chaos. v Table of Contents Title Page ......................................................................................................................................... i Copyright Page................................................................................................................................ ii Signature Page ............................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................ iv Abstract ............................................................................................................................................v Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................... vi List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ vii List of Figures .............................................................................................................................. viii Chapter 1 – Introduction ..................................................................................................................1 Chapter 2 – Literature Review .........................................................................................................8 History........................................................................................................................................9 Pattern Recognition ..................................................................................................................10 Expertise and Decision Making ...............................................................................................13 Randomness .............................................................................................................................16 Error Types ..............................................................................................................................19 Behavioral Accounting and Finance ........................................................................................36 Studies of Randomness in Diverse Domains ...........................................................................43 Type I or Type II Errors in Diverse Domains ..........................................................................44 Consequences and Costs of Type I and Type II Errors ...........................................................49 Literature of Operational Terms ..............................................................................................52 Characteristics Related to Type I and Type II Errors ..............................................................62 Summary ..................................................................................................................................71 vi Chapter 3 – Methodology ..............................................................................................................73 Proposed Model and Relationships ..........................................................................................73 Hypotheses ...............................................................................................................................74 Justification of Methodology ...................................................................................................77 Measures ..................................................................................................................................80 Analysis Plan ...........................................................................................................................87 Chapter 4 – Data Analysis and Findings ........................................................................................91 Survey Construction and Pilot Studies ....................................................................................91 Final Study .............................................................................................................................102 Discussion ..............................................................................................................................127 Chapter 5 – Conclusions, Limitations, and Future Research ......................................................131 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................131 Limitations .............................................................................................................................132 Future Research .....................................................................................................................132
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