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Norway's Climate Strategy for 2030: a Transformational Approach Within A Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment Published by: Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment Public institutions may order additional copies from: Norwegian Government Security and Service Organisation Meld. St. 41 (2016 – 2017) Report to the Storting (white paper) E-mail: [email protected] Internet: www.publikasjoner.dep.no Telephone: + 47 222 40 000 Norway’s Climate Strategy Cover illustration: Electric airplane: Illustration is used with permission from Zunum Aero Vision of the Fjords: Illustration is used with permission from Brødrene Aa for 2030: a transformational Broccoli: iStockphoto/David Gomez Mercedes-Benz Urban eTruck: Daimler AG KET T ER RY M K Østfold Line: NSB/Rune Fossum Ø K J E L R I approach within a European I European tree: Shutterstock/Peter Bardocz M 0 7 9 7 M 3 ED 0 Print: 07 Media AS 02/2019 IA – 2041 cooperation framework Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment Meld. St. 41 (2016 – 2017) Report to the Storting (white paper) Norway’s Climate Strategy for 2030: a transformational approach within a European cooperation framework Unofficial translation from Norwegian. For information only. Contents 1 Introduction................................... 5 5 Reducing non-ETS emissions in Norway ..................................... 38 2 A changing world ....................... 8 5.1 Emission trends ............................ 38 2.1 A more proactive climate policy 5.1.1 Norwegian emissions ................... 38 globally and green transformation 5.1.2 New emission projections ............ 40 in Norway ........................................ 8 5.1.3 Uncertainties in emission 2.2 Norway’s climate targets .............. 14 estimates ......................................... 42 2.3 Cooperation with the EU 5.1.4 Reporting required under the on the 2030 emission reduction Climate Change Act ...................... 43 commitment ................................... 17 5.2 Policy instruments at national 2.4 The Norwegian Government’s level ................................................ 43 climate policy ................................. 20 5.2.1 Effective and coordinated use of policy instruments ........................ 43 3 Norway’s climate strategy for 5.2.2 Pricing emissions is the basis of 2030 and the transition an effective climate policy ............ 45 to a low-emission society ........ 24 5.2.3 Direct regulation as a supplement 3.1 A strategy to ensure that Norway to economic instruments ............. 48 achieves its targets ......................... 24 5.2.4 Need for other types of policy 3.2 Continuing and strengthening instruments ................................... 49 Norway’s national efforts .............. 26 5.2.5 Policy instruments in different 3.3 Building up the knowledge base ... 28 sectors ............................................ 57 5.3 Transport ........................................ 59 4 EU climate policy and its 5.3.1 Climate policy for the transport implications for Norway ............ 30 sector ............................................. 59 4.1 Introduction .................................... 30 5.3.2 Development of zero- and 4.2 The EU Emissions Trading low-emission technology in the System ............................................ 30 transport sector ............................. 61 4.3 The Effort Sharing Regulation ...... 31 5.3.3 Road traffic .................................... 66 4.3.1 Introduction .................................... 31 5.3.4 Reducing transport needs and 4.3.2 National targets ............................. 31 switching to more environmentally 4.3.3 New rules and annual targets from 2021 friendly forms of transport ............ 72 onwards .......................................... 31 5.3.5 Promoting a shift in freight 4.3.4 Flexibility rules .............................. 32 transport from road to rail 4.4 Legislation for the land use, land and sea ........................................... 74 use change and forestry (LULUCF) 5.3.6 The railways .................................. 74 sector .............................................. 33 5.3.7 Non-road mobile machinery ........ 75 4.4.1 Introduction ................................... 33 5.3.8 Domestic shipping and fishing 4.4.2 The ‘no-debit’ rule .......................... 34 vessels ............................................ 76 4.4.3 Use of LULUCF credits under the 5.3.9 Domestic aviation ......................... 81 Effort Sharing Regulation ............. 35 5.3.10 Use of biofuels .............................. 82 4.5 Flexibility in order to ensure that 5.4 Agriculture ..................................... 85 targets are achieved ....................... 35 5.4.1 Agriculture and climate change ... 85 4.5.1 Flexibility available to Norway 5.4.2 Measures and instruments to under the Effort Sharing reduce greenhouse gas emissions Regulation ...................................... 35 from agriculture ............................ 87 4.5.2 Norway’s eligibility for flexibility 5.5 Manufacturing industries ............ 91 mechanisms for the LULUCF 5.6 Petroleum ....................................... 92 sector .............................................. 37 5.7 Energy supplies ............................. 95 5.8 Buildings ......................................... 97 5.12 Land use, land-use change and 5.9 Fluorinated gases in products ...... 98 forestry (LULUCF) ....................... 102 5.10 Other sources ................................ 101 5.12.1 Emissions and removals ............... 103 5.11 Measures specifically designed 5.12.2 Climate-related measures in to reduce emissions of black the LULUCF sector ...................... 103 carbon and other short-lived climate pollutants .......................... 101 6 Economic and administrative consequences .............................. 111 Norway’s Climate Strategy for 2030: a transformational approach within a European cooperation framework Meld. St. 41 (2016–2017) Report to the Storting (white paper) Recommendation of 16 June 2017 from the Ministry of Climate and Environment, approved in the Council of State the same day (white paper from the Solberg Government) 1 Introduction The Norwegian Government is working towards electric cars. The Paris Agreement and events joint fulfilment of its Paris commitment together since show that the attitudes of a clear majority of with the European Union (EU). Joint fulfilment the world’s politicians are changing. However, will make it possible to achieve the 2030 reduction unless the world succeeds in cutting emissions target for emissions that fall outside the scope of the substantially in the next few years, there is a very EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) mainly high risk that climate change will have serious through domestic emission reductions, and with the and far-reaching consequences. Global emissions use of EU flexibility mechanisms as necessary. The must be reduced. A transformation process is main sources of non-ETS emissions are transport, needed to develop a greener global economy, and agriculture, buildings and waste, but also manufac- we must prepare to deal with unavoidable climate turing and the petroleum sector. The Government’s change. strategy for 2030 is intended to open the way for sub- The Government is working towards joint ful- stantial domestic emission reductions. filment of its 2030 commitment together with the Chapter 2 describes a changing world. Climate EU. Chapter 3 presents the Government’s strat- change is one of the greatest threats of our time. egy for achieving this. Norway is already cooper- Global warming is resulting in new rainfall pat- ating with the EU to reduce emissions from ETS terns and affecting life both in the sea and on land. sectors. Given an agreement on joint fulfilment of At the same time, there is rapid technological the 2030 target, Norway would also cooperate development of climate-friendly solutions for with the EU on reducing non-ETS emissions cov- example using solar and wind energy. There has ered by the proposed Effort Sharing Regulation. been a phenomenal increase in the number of Norway would be allocated a separate target for 6 Meld. St. 41 (2016–2017) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2016–2017 Norway’s Climate Strategy for 2030: a transformational approach within a European cooperation framework these emissions. These emissions are mainly from sion vehicles as a share of the vehicle park set out transport, agriculture, buildings and waste man- in the white paper Norwegian National Transport agement, but also include non-ETS emissions Plan 2018–2029 (Meld. St. 33 (2016–2017)); the from manufacturing and the petroleum sector. decision to increase the biofuel quota obligation The Commission's proposal estimates that (the required proportion of biofuels in annual Norway would be attributed a target for reduction sales of road traffic fuels) to 20 % in 2020; and a of non-ETS emissions of 40 % below the 2005 level decision by the Storting to request the Govern- in 2030. The target for non-ETS emissions would ment to introduce a standard carbon tax rate for be expressed as a budget for the whole period non-ETS emissions. 2021–2030. The gap between projected emissions In the strategy described in the present white in Norway and Norway’s emission budget is esti- paper, the Government shows that the estimated mated at 30 million tonnes CO2 equivalents (CO2- emissions gap of 20–25 million tonnes can be eq) over the period 2021–2030. This estimate is closed by means of domestic emission reductions. uncertain. Based
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