Political Report

POLITICAL REPORT

POLITICAL REPORT A MONTHLY POLL COMPILATION Volume 14, Issue 7 • July/August 2018

IN THIS ISSUE: Nominees and the Court (pp. 1–7) Roe v. WadePOLITICAL and Abortion (pp. 8–12) | Democracy in Distress? (pp.REPORT 13–14) Supreme Court Nominations: Initial Reactions and More In the first two pages of this edition ofPolitical Report, we display the public’s initial reaction to Court nominees as measured by several different pollsters. Initial readings are usually more positive than negative although many people answer “don’t know” or “not sure.” In recent questions on Brett Kavanaugh, the split between positive and negative opinion seems to be slightly closer than it was in the past, perhaps because of greater partisan polarization. Gallup notes that with the exception of Robert Bork and Harriet Miers there has been “little change in Americans’ fundamentalPOLITIC support for the confirmation of past high courtAL nominees” betweenREPOR the initial reading T and later measurements.

Q: As you may know, ______is a federal judge who has been nominated to serve on the Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of ______or not? Initial support for/opposition to confirmation Would like to see Senate Not vote No vote in favor of nominee in favor opinion Robert Bork (Aug. 24–Sep. 2, 1987)* 31% 25% 44% Clarence Thomas (Jul. 11–14, 1991) 52 17 31 Ruth Bader Ginsburg (Jun. 18–21, 1993)^ 53 14 33 John Roberts (Jul. 22–24, 2005) 59 22 19 Harriet Miers (Oct. 13–16, 2005)# 44 36 20 Samuel Alito (Nov. 7–10, 2005) 50 25 25 Sonia Sotomayor (May 29–31, 2009) 54 28 19 Elena Kagan (May 24–25, 2010) 46 32 22 Merrick Garland (Mar. 18–19, 2016) 52 29 19 Neil Gorsuch (Feb. 1–2, 2017) 45 32 23 Brett Kavanaugh (Jul. 10–15, 2018) 41 37 22 Note: The data shown are from the first Gallup survey conducted after each person was nominated. *Robert Bork was nominated on July 1, 1987. There was a longer time period between his nomination date and Gallup’s first survey about support for his confirmation than there was during subsequent nominations. Question wording was “Robert Bork is a federal judge who has been nominated by President Reagan to serve on the US Supreme Court . . .” ^Question wording was “Ruth Bader Ginsburg is a federal judge who has been nominated by President Clinton to serve on the United States Supreme Court . . .” #Question wording was “As you may know, Harriet Miers is the person nominated to serve on the Supreme Court . . .” “No opinion” was a volunteered response. Source: Gallup, latest that of July 2018. (Continued on the next page)

AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org (Continued from the previous page)

Q: From what you’ve seen and heard so far, do you think the Senate should or should not confirm ______to the Supreme Court? Initial support for/opposition to confirmation Should not Don’t Senate should confirm confirm know John Roberts (Sep. 6–7, 2005)* 35% 19% 46% Harriet Miers (Oct. 6–10, 2005) 33 27 40 Samuel Alito (Nov. 3–6, 2005) 40 23 37 Sonia Sotomayor (Jun. 10–14, 2009) 50 25 25 Elena Kagan (May 13–16, 2010) 33 21 46 Merrick Garland (Mar. 17–26, 2016) 46 30 24 Neil Gorsuch (Feb. 7–12, 2017) 44 32 24 Brett Kavanaugh (Jul. 11–15, 2018) 41 36 23 Note: The data shown are from the first Pew survey conducted after each person was nominated. *John Roberts was initially nominated on July 29, 2005 to replace Sandra Day O’Conner, but after Chief Justice William Rehnquist passed away, President Bush instead nominated Roberts to replace Rehnquist as Chief Justice on September 6, 2005. “Don’t know” was a volunteered response, and includes those who refused to answer. Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of July 2018.

Q: President [Bush/Obama/Trump] has nominated ______to serve on the US Supreme Court. If you were voting on ______’s nomination, would you . . . ? Initial support for/opposition to confirmation No, would Don’t Yes, would vote to confirm not confirm know John Roberts (Jul. 26–27, 2005) 51% 19% 30% Harriet Miers (Oct. 11–12, 2005) 37 32 31 Samuel Alito (Nov. 8–9, 2005) 46 29 25 Sonia Sotomayor (Jun. 9–10, 2009) 46 32 22 Elena Kagan (May 18–19, 2010) 39 29 33 Neil Gorsuch (Feb. 11–13, 2017) 49 37 14 Brett Kavanaugh (Jul. 10–11, 2018) 38 32 30 Note: Samples are registered voters. Question wording varied slightly. The data shown are from the first Fox News survey conducted after each person was nominated. “Don’t know” was a volunteered response. Source: Fox News, latest that of July 2018.

Q: Would you like to see your Senators vote . . . ? Initial support for/opposition to confirmation Would like to see Senators Vote Not vote in favor of confirming against sure Neil Gorsuch (Feb. 2–3, 2017)* 43% 28% 29% Brett Kavanaugh (Jul. 10–11, 2018) 33 31 36 Note: Online survey. *Question wording was “Do you think the Senate should vote to confirm Neil Gorsuch as a Supreme Court justice, or not?” Source: Huffington Post/YouGov, latest that of July 2018.

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 2 Ideological Balance of the Supreme Court In Gallup surveys taken from 2009 through 2016, more people said the Supreme Court was too liberal than said it was too conservative. In July 2018, 29 percent of Americans told Gallup pollsters they thought the Supreme Court was too conservative, compared to 21 percent who said it was too liberal. Forty-four percent said it was just about right. In a summer 2018 Quinnipiac University survey of registered voters, a majority of Democrats said the Court was too conservative, while a majority of Republicans said it was about right. In 2010, the last time Quin- nipiac asked the question, a majority of Republicans said the Court was too liberal, and a plurality of Democrats said it was about right. Q: In general, do you think . . . ?

60 The current Supreme Court is just about right 50 45% 44% 40 Too liberal 30 24% 29%

20 22% 21% Too conservative 10

0 1 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 201 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 2001 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: Gallup, latest that of July 2018.

Q: Do you think the Supreme Court is . . . ? ------––––––---- Responses of ----––––––------2010 National registered voters Reps. Dems. Inds. Too conservative 19% 7% 32% 19% About right 40 31 46 41 Too liberal 29 53 8 30

------––––––---- Responses of ---––––––------2018 National registered voters Reps. Dems. Inds. Too conservative 31% 5% 59% 29% About right 41 55 24 45 Too liberal 19 38 8 14 Note: Samples are registered voters. Source: Quinnipiac University, April 2010 and June–July 2018.

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 3 Ideology and the Next Justice In a summer 2018 Quinnipiac survey, 31 percent of registered voters said they would like to see President Trump make the Supreme Court more conservative, 29 percent said they would like to see him make it more liberal, and 35 percent said to keep the present balance. In Gallup surveys taken when George W. Bush and Barack Obama were selecting their nominees, pluralities said they would like to see them nominate a justice who would make the Court more conservative. Earlier surveys during Ronald Reagan’s and Bill Clinton’s presidencies showed pluralities wanted to keep the Court as it was. Q: At various times the Supreme Court has been both more liberal than it is now and more conservative than it is now. When President Reagan appoints a replacement for Lewis Powell, who just retired from the Court, would you like that replacement to make the Court more conservative than it is now, or more liberal than it is now, or to keep the Court just about the way it was before Powell retired? (Roper/US News & World Report, 1987)

Q: In making his next appointment to the Supreme Court, should President Bill Clinton choose someone who will make the court more liberal, someone who will make it more conservative, or someone who will keep the court about the same as it is now? (Gallup, 1993) 1987 (Reagan) 1993 (Clinton) More conservative 32% 29% Keep as it is now 37 38 More liberal 20 29

Source: Roper/US News & World Report, June 1987; Gallup, March 1993.

Q: Would you like to see President [George W. Bush/Barack Obama] nominate a new justice who would make the Supreme Court more liberal than it currently is, more conservative than it currently is, or who would keep the court as it is now? (Gallup, 2005–2010) Jun. 2005 (Bush) Sep. 2005 (Bush) More conservative 41% 33% Keep as it is now 24 29 More liberal 30 30 2009 (Obama) 2010 (Obama) More conservative 41% 42% Keep as it is now 26 24 More liberal 28 27

Source: Gallup, June 2005, September 2005, May 2009, and May 2010.

2018 Q: President Trump has the opportunity to make a nomination to the Supreme Court to replace Justice Kennedy. Would you like to see him make the court more conservative, more liberal, or keep the present balance?

------–––---- Responses of ----––--–------National registered voters Reps. Dems. Inds. More conservative 31% 68% 6% 25% Keep present balance 35 26 32 42 More liberal 29 4 59 25 Note: Sample is registered voters. Source: Quinnipiac University, June–July 2018.

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 4 Approval and Favorability of the Court Republicans now have more positive opinions of the Supreme Court than do Democrats. In Gallup’s latest survey from July 2018, 72 percent of Republicans approved of the way the Supreme Court was handling its job, up from 26 percent in September 2016. Approval of the Court among Democrats dropped from 67 percent to 38 percent. In a March 2018 Pew Research Center survey, 71 percent of Republicans and 62 percent of Democrats had a favorable opinion of the Court. Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Supreme Court is handling its job? % Approve of the way the Supreme Court is handling its job

100 National adults Republicans Democrats 90 80 70% 72% 70 62% 60 60% 53% 50

40 38% 30

0 1 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 201 2001 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: Gallup, latest that of July 2018.

Favorability in 2018

Q: Would you say your overall opinion of the Supreme Court is . . . ? Favorable National adults 66%

Republicans/Lean Rep. 71% Democrats/Lean Dem. 62 Note: In July 2015, Supreme Court favorability was at a low of 48 percent among national adults, with only 33 percent of Republicans expressing a favorable opinion, compared to 61 percent of Democrats. Source: Pew Research Center, March 2018.

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 5 Confidence in the Court, Congress, and the Presidency When Gallup first asked about confidence in the Supreme Court in 1973, 45 percent had a great deal or quite a lot of confidence. Forty-two percent had high confidence in Congress. Fifty-two percent had high confidence in the presidency in the initial asking in 1975. Today, 37 percent have high confidence in the Court, 11 percent in Congress, and 37 percent in the presidency. While equal shares expressed high confidence in the Court and the presidency, the low confidence responses differed: 44 percent said they had very little or no confidence in the presidency, compared to 18 percent who said that about the Court. Q: Now I am going to read you a list of institutions in American society. Please tell me how much confidence you, yourself, have in each one — a great deal, quite a lot, some, or very little?

100 Great deal/Quite a lot of conﬁdence in . . . 90 80 72% 70 The presidency 60 Supreme Court 50 45% 40 42% 37% 30 20 Congress 10 11% 0 3 7 981 985 989 993 997 973 977 1 1 1 1 1 2001 201 201 1 1 2005 2009

Note: In 1975, 52 percent said they had a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the presidency. Gallup did not ask about the presidency between 1975 and 1991. Source: Gallup, latest that of June 2018.

Comparing Confidence in Institutions, 2018 Very little/ Great deal/Quite a lot Some None (vol.) The military 74% 20% 5% Small business 67 26 6 The police 54 31 15 The church or organized religion 38 33 27 The presidency 37 18 44 The US Supreme Court 37 42 18 The medical system 36 37 26 Banks 30 46 22 The public schools 29 44 27 Organized labor 26 45 25 Big business 25 43 30 Newspapers 23 35 40 The criminal justice system 22 41 36 Television news 20 34 45 Congress 11 39 48 Note: “None” was a volunteered response. Source: Gallup, June 2018.

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 6 What Should Senators Consider When Voting on a Nominee? Pollsters have approached the issue of what senators should consider in judging a nominee in different ways. In a Politico/Morning Consult survey of registered voters, a majority said senators should vote based primarily on whether a nominee is qualified. In a Gallup poll that asked about a nominee who is qualified, Americans were divided on whether or not senators would be justified in voting against the nominee if they disagree with the nominee’s stance on current issues. A majority in a recent Pew survey said nominees should be required to answer senators’ questions on issues like abortion. Most registered voters told Fox pollsters they don’t think it is acceptable for a senator to base his or her vote solely on a nominee’s position on abortion. Q: Suppose a nominee for the US Supreme Court is qualified and has no ethical problems. Do you think US senators would be . . . ? Senators would be justified in voting against that nominee if they disagree with the nominee’s stance on current issues such as abortion, gun control, or affirmative action 49% Senators would be unjustified in voting against that nominee 46 Source: Gallup, July 2018.

Q: When it comes to voting for nominations to the Supreme Court, do you think senators should vote based primarily on . . . ? Senators should vote based primarily on . . . Whether the nominee is qualified to be appointed to the Supreme Court 61% Where senators think the nominee stands on political and social issues that might come before the Supreme Court 24 Note: Online survey of registered voters. Source: Politico/Morning Consult, June 2018.

Q: When senators ask Supreme Court nominees questions about issues like abortion that may come before the Court, do you think . . . ? When senators ask nominees questions about issues like abortion . . . Nominees should be required to answer those questions 61% Nominees should be allowed to not comment on those questions 33 Note: Fifty-one percent of Republicans and those who leaned to the Republican Party said a nominee should be required to answer; 70 percent of Democrats and leaners did. Pew has asked this question two other times. In early October 2005, 55 percent said a nominee should be required to answer; in early November 2005, 60 percent did. Source: Pew Research Center, July 2018.

Q: Do you think it is acceptable or unacceptable . . . ? Acceptable for a US senator to base his or her vote on a Supreme Court nominee solely on the nominee’s position on abortion 19% Unacceptable 74 Note: Sample is registered voters. Seventy-four percent of Democrats and 75 percent of Republicans said this was unacceptable. Fox News has asked this identical question three other times, and the responses are consistent with the new responses shown above. Source: Fox News, July 2018.

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 7 Roe v. Wade and Attitudes Toward Abortion As a result of anticipated potential change to the Court, recent news stories have focused on Americans’ opinions toward the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision. Polls taken over time show that most Americans do not want the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade. There are deep partisan divisions. While poll questions about the case give a general sense of attitudes toward the legality of abortion, other questions provide a more nuanced measure of Americans’ views. In the following pages, we review key trends in public opinion on whether, when, and under what circumstances abortion should be legal. Q: Would you like to see the Supreme Court overturn its 1973 Roe versus Wade decision concerning abortion, or not? Jul. Jan. May May May Dec. 2005 2006 2006 2007 2008 2012 Yes, would like to see the Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade 28% 25% 32% 35% 33% 29% No, would not 63 66 55 53 52 53

Jul. 2018 (continued from trend above) ------Responses of ------National response Reps. Dems. Inds. Yes, would like to see the Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade 28% 51% 13% 22% No, would not 64 41 81 70

Source: Gallup, latest that of July 2018.

Q: Do you think the Supreme Court should . . . ?

------Responses of ------National registered voters Reps. Dems. Inds. Supreme Court should overturn Roe v. Wade 21% 34% 10% 15% Should let it stand 63 50 78 59 Note: Sample is registered voters. Twenty-four percent of men and 18 percent of women said the Court should overturn Roe v. Wade. In another question in this poll, 24 percent were extremely familiar with Roe v. Wade, 26 percent were very familiar, 34 percent somewhat familiar, and 13 percent not at all familiar. Source: Fox News, July 2018.

Q: As you may know, the 1973 Supreme Court case Roe v. Wade established a woman’s constitutional right to have an abortion. Would you like to see . . . ?

------Responses of ------National response Reps. Dems. Inds. Yes, would like to see the Supreme Court overturn its Roe v. Wade decision 29% 53% 16% 23% No, would not 67 43 81 73 Note: Thirty percent of men and 28 percent of women in the poll wanted to see Roe v. Wade overturned. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, June 2018.

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 8 Nuanced Views on Legality In a Gallup question asked since 1975, a plurality or majority of Americans have said abortion should be legal under certain circumstances. In a follow-up question asked since 1994 of those who gave that response, more have said it should be legal under “only a few” circumstances than have said it should be legal under “most” circumstances. A four-response question with different wording asked by ABC News/Washington Post and the Pew Research Center shows a different balance of opinion: More people in their trend say it should be “legal in most cases” than say it should be “illegal in most cases.” Q: Do you think . . . ? 70 Abortions should be legal only under certain circumstances

60 54%

50 50%

40 Legal under any circumstances

30 29% 22% 20 21% 18%

10 Illegal in all circumstances

0 1 3 5 7 981 991 975 977 979 983 985 987 989 993 995 997 999 1 1 201 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2001 201 201 201 2003 2005 2007 2009

Note: Of the 50 percent in Gallup’s 2018 survey who said abortion should be legal under certain circumstances, 14 percent said it should be “legal in most circumstances,” while 35 percent said it should be “legal only in a few circumstances.” Those responses were consistent with earlier years. Source: Gallup, latest that of May 2018.

Q: Do you think . . . ? 70

60 Legal in all cases Illegal in most cases Legal in most cases Illegal in all cases 50

40 32% 33% 30 27% 25% 26% 24% 20 14% 16%

0 1 3 5 7 95 97 99 201 201 201 201 19 19 19 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Source: ABC News/Washington Post and Pew Research Center, latest that of July 2017.

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 9 Views on Legality in Different Circumstances General Social Survey (GSS) data collected since 1972 shows substantial support for allowing legal abortion when the mother’s health is seriously endangered, if the pregnancy was a result of rape, or if there is a strong chance of a serious defect in the baby. Fewer say it should be possible to obtain a legal abortion “if the woman wants it for any reason.” Forty-four percent said that in the 2016 GSS, and the response is similar to the proportions in other surveys who believe abortion is morally acceptable (43 percent in a 2018 Gallup survey) and who say abortion should be generally available to those who want it (45 percent in a 2018 CBS News survey). Q: Please tell me whether or not you think it should be possible for a pregnant woman to obtain a legal abortion if . . .

If the woman’s own health is seriously endangered by the pregnancy If she became pregnant as a result of rape If there is strong chance of a serious defect in the baby If the family is very low income and cannot aﬀord any more children If the woman wants it for any reason

100 Percentage saying it should be possible to obtain a legal abortion 90 84% 87% 80 75% 75% 70 74% 71% 60 50 46% 44% 40 36% 43% 30 20 10 0 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Note: The question also asked about “If she is married and does not want any more children” and “If she is not married and does not want to marry the man.” Those trends are not shown in the graph above. In 2016, 44 percent said it should be possible for a woman to get a legal abortion if she is married and does not want any more children. Forty-one percent said it should be possible for a woman to get a legal abortion if she is not married and does not want to marry the man. Source: General Social Survey, NORC at the University of Chicago, latest that of 2016. 2018 Q: Next, I’m going to read you a list of issues. Regardless Q: Which of these comes closest to your view . . . ? of whether or not you think it should be legal, for each one, Abortion should be please tell me whether you personally believe that . . . . generally available to In general, abortion is those who want it 45% Morally acceptable 43% Should be available but Morally wrong 48 under stricter limits than Note: Seven percent gave a volunteered response, saying that it it is now 32 depends on the situation. Should not be permitted 21 Source: Gallup, May 2018. Source: CBS News, January 2018.

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 10 Views on Legality in Different Trimesters In a recent release, Gallup described trimesters as “key to US abortion views.” In May 2018, 6 in 10 said abortion should generally be legal during the first three months of pregnancy. Those responses shift dramatically when people are asked about later trimesters. Twenty-eight percent said abortion should generally be legal during the second trimester, and only 13 percent said it should be legal during the last three months of pregnancy. Views on the legality of abortion in different circumstances also vary based on trimester. When Gallup asked whether abortion should be legal in various situations during the firsttrimester, responses were similar to those in the General Social Survey trends (shown on the previous page). When Gallup asked about the same situations during the third trimester, support for allowing abortion was lower in each situation. Q: Do you think abortion should generally be legal or generally illegal during each of the following stages of pregnancy?

100 Percentage saying abortion should be legal during . . . 90 80 70 64% First three months of pregnancy 60 60% 50 40

30 26% Second three months 28%

20 13% Last three months 13% 10 0 0 2 4 6 8 996 998 1 1 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 201 201 201 201 201

Note: Only the percentages saying abortion should be legal during each stage are shown. In May 2018, 34 percent said abortion should be illegal during the first three months, 65 percent said it should be illegal during the second three months, and 81 percent said it should be illegal during the last three months. Source: Gallup, latest that of May 2018.

Q: Now I am going to read some specific situations under which an abortion might be considered in the [first three months/last three months] of pregnancy. Thinking specifically about the [first/third] trimester, please say whether you think abortion should be legal in that situation, or illegal. How about . . . ? Percentage saying abortion should be legal in that situation during the . . . First trimester Third trimester When the woman’s life is endangered 83% 75% When the pregnancy was caused by rape or incest 77 52 When the child would be born with a life-threatening illness 67 48 When the child would be born mentally disabled 56 35 When the child would be born with Down syndrome 49 29 When the woman does not want the child for any reason 45 20 Note: The question about the first trimester was asked of one half of the sample and the question about the third trimester was asked of the other half of the sample. Source: Gallup, May 2018.

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 11 Abortion Views as a Litmus Test for Voters? Around 2 in 10 say that a candidate for major office must share their views on abortion, while strong pluralities say it is one of many factors that could affect their vote. Around 30 percent say it is not a major issue. Although more registered voters in a recent Kaiser poll said they are likely to vote for a candidate who supports access to abortion services than said they are likely to vote for one who wants to restrict access, 64 percent of registered voters in a December 2017 Quinnipiac survey said they could still vote for a candidate with whom they disagreed about the issue of abortion. 70 Consider a candidate's position on abortion as just one of many important factors 60

50 48% 47% 40 Not see abortion as a major issue

30% 31% 30

18% 20 18%

10 Only vote for a candidate who shares your views on abortion 0 1 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 996 997 998 999 201 1 1 1 1 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 2001 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Q: Thinking about how the abortion issue might affect your vote for major offices, would you . . . ?

Source: Gallup, July 1996 to May 2016; Public Religion Research Institute, March 2018.

Q: If you agreed with a political candidate on other issues, but not on the issue of abortion, do you think you could still vote for that candidate or not? Yes, could still vote for candidate if you did not agree on the issue of abortion 64% No, could not 29 Note: Sample is registered voters. Sixty-six percent of Democrats and independents and 58 percent of Republicans said they could still vote for a political candidate if they did not agree with that candidate on the issue of abortion. Source: Quinnipiac University, December 2017.

Q: Are you . . . ? More likely to vote for a candidate who supports access to abortion services 42% More likely to vote for a candidate who wants to restrict access to abortion services 29 A candidate’s position on this issue does not make a difference in who you vote for 26 Note: Sample is registered voters. Seventy-two percent of Democrats said they are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports access to abortion services. Fifty-eight percent of Republicans said they are more likely to vote for a candidate who wants to restrict access to abortion services. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, June 2018.

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 12 Democracy in Danger? There has been a growing chorus of concern in recent books and articles about declining support for democracy here and abroad. In the public polls in the United States, there are few questions about democracy itself. Many more questions are asked about government performance. As the data below show, far more people are positive about democracy than are positive about the way it is working today. Q: I’m going to describe various types of political systems and ask what you think about each as a way of governing our country. For each one, would it be a very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad, or very bad way of governing this country? A democratic system where representatives elected by citizens decide what becomes law Q: How satisfied are you with the way democracy is working in our country . . . ? A democratic system where representatives elected by citizens decide what becomes law is a good way of governing this country Bad way 86% 13%

Satisfied with the way democracy is working Dissatisfied 46% 51%

Source: Pew Research Center, February–March 2017.

Q: Thinking about our system of government in America, how important is it for you to live in a country that is governed democratically? On a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 means it is “not at all important” and 10 means “absolutely important,” what position would you choose? Q: How satisfied are you with the way democracy is working in our country . . . ? Importance of living in a country that is governed democratically: 1–5 Total who chose 6–10 on scale (1 = Not at all (10 = Absolutely important) important) 84% 12%

Satisfied with the way democracy is working Dissatisfied 48% 50% Note: On the scale question about the importance of living in a country that is governed democratically, the mean of responses was 8.7. Sixty percent of respondents placed themselves at 10 on the scale. Source: Freedom House, April–May 2018. (Continued on the next page)

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow Editor: Eleanor O’Neil Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar Design: Claude Aubert Michael Barone, Resident Fellow Intern: John Crawford

The survey results reported here were obtained in part from searches of the AEI poll archive, the iPoll Databank, and other resources provided by the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at Cornell University. The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) is a nonpartisan, nonprofit, 501(c)(3) educational organization and does not take institutional positions on any issues. The views expressed here are those of the author[s].

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 13 (Continued from previous page)

Q: How proud are you of America in each of the following? The way democracy works

100 90 79% 80 70 Very/Somewhat proud of the way democracy works in America 63% 60 50 40 36% 30 20 16% Not too/Not at all proud 10 0 0 2 4 6 7 996 998 1 1 201 201 201 201 201 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Note: Washington Post/University of Maryland 2017 survey conducted online and by telephone. Source: NORC 1996–2014; Washington Post/University of Maryland, September–October 2017.

Q: Do you think . . . ? The current political system in the United States is basically functional 35% It is basically dysfunctional 64 Note: Survey conducted online and by telephone. Source: Washington Post/University of Maryland, September–October 2017.

Q: Thinking about the fundamental design and structure of American government, which comes closer to your view? The design and structure serves the country well and does not need significant changes 38% Significant changes to the design and structure are needed to make it work for current times 61 Source: Pew Research Center, January–February 2018.

In its 2018 report “The Public, the Political System and American Democracy,” the Pew Research Center asked people how important different things were for the country. The pollster then asked how those things were actually working in the US today. The Pew data reveal a disconnect between the ideals and the reality. We look in this brief note at the top five things people said were very important. Eighty-four percent said it was very important that rights and freedoms of all people are respected, but 47 percent said this described the country very or somewhat well today. Eighty-two percent said it was very important that everyone has an equal opportunity to succeed, but 52 percent said this described the country very or somewhat well today. Eighty-two percent also said it was very important that judges are not influenced by political parties, but 42 percent said that was true today. Seventy-eight percent said it was important for Republican and Democratic elected officials to work together on important issues, but only 19 percent said that was true today. Seventy-six percent said it was very important that news organizations were independent of government influence; 43 percent said that is the case today. Seventy-six percent also said it was very important for the executive, legislative, and judicial branches of government each keep the others from having too much power; a majority, 55 percent said that was working very or somewhat well; 43 percent said it was not.

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 14