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The Fluctuations of the Algerian Dinar Exchange Rate Against the Euro and Its Impact on the Algerian Trade Balance During the Period (1999- 2014)

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The Fluctuations of the Algerian Dinar Exchange Rate Against the Euro and Its Impact on the Algerian Trade Balance During the Period (1999- 2014) (2014 - 1999) [email protected] Aggoun.charaf@yahoo. The Fluctuations of the Algerian Dinar Exchange Rate Against the Euro and its Impact on the Algerian Trade Balance During the Period (1999- 2014) : %97 . ( ) . : Abstract: This studyaimed to investigate the impact of the fluctuations of the Algerian dinar exchange rate against the euro on the Algerian trade balance. Yet, in light of the continuousreduction of the Algerian dinar against the euro in order to encourage exports and reduce imports. EspeciallythosebroughtfromEuropean Union,takingintoconsiderationAlgeria'sforeigntradesector, whichaccounts for more than 97% of its exportson fuel and denominated in US dollars and about two-thirds of imports come from the European Union and priced in euros.Therefore,the state chargedthe cost of differencesbetweencurrencies.Theco-integration test wasemployed to examine the relationshipbetween the Algerian trade balance and the Algerian dinar exchange rateagainst the euro. The studyconcludedthatthereis no long-termrelationshipbetween the Algerian trade balance and the dollar exchange rate for the euro,thisis due to the nature of Algeria'sforeigntrade, which relies mainly on the hydrocarbonsector. Key words: Exchange rate, Trade Balance, Import, Export, Euro. : ( ) . %97 ( ) . ( ) . : : . - : . : -1 -2 . -3 209 « » 2017 03 : : . : -1-1 .1 : . : . 2 : :( ) - 3 . .( ) : - . : -2-1 : ( ) - . ( ) - : -3-1 . : : -1-3-1 « » 210 2017 03 : Dépriciation ( ) - . :Appréciation ( ) - . .4 :Dévaluation - .6 5 . :Réévaluation - : -2-3-1 . ) : - ( . : - . : - - - .7 ( ) - : : . 211 « » 2017 03 : -1-2 01 2003 %5 %5 % 2 2008 2014 106.9 2008 94.89 . :(2014 -1999) -2-2 2014 1999 02 2000 12.3 1999 3.36 . 6.7 2002 2001 2000 40.6 2008 2003 . 7.78 2009 2008 2012 2011 20.17 25.96 2010 . 0.32 2014 2013 100.2 1999 2014 59.99 . 59.97 03 . : -3-2 « » 212 2017 03 % 95 . : -1-3-2 04 (2014 -1999) 2009 0.77 .2008 . : -2-3-2 -1999) 05 (2014 01 ) (2014 -2009 ( .... ) . : :( ) (2014 -1999) . 1999 : -1-3 . 192 2014 : - BC 213 « » 2017 03 .TCUSD : - : -2-3 . : -1-2-3 06 . (ADF) :BC - . :BC - ( ) ADF) : 02 : P=2 schwarz - (2.79) (0.19-) b - (b=0) H0 %5 (100) 0.05 0.2306 H0 C - (3.433778-) (2.717942-) - . %5 : H0 - 100 % 5 .%5 - : (1.942-) (1.67-) - .0.0896 H0 « » 214 2017 03 First Difference DS : :DBC - 07 03 :DBC - - .%5 - BC (DBC) .I (1) :TCDZ - . :TCDZ - EViews8 TCDZ " " Schwarz 04 Akaike Schwarz .TCDZ P=2 04 : 05 P=2 " " : (2.79) (4.11) b - ( b0) H1 H0 %5 (100) 0.05 0.0001 H0 C - 215 « » 2017 03 %5 - . TS : .%5 - : H0 - .0.05 0.79 " " " " " " ( ) TCDZ First Difference TS : :DTCDZ - DTCDZ 08 " " :DTCDZ 06 - - %5 - . (DTCDZ) .I (1) DTCDZ : -2-2-3 BC .TCDZ « » 216 2017 03 I(1) . EViews8 TCDZ BC 07 " " u1 : u1 ( ) " " %5 - u1 - 0.2289 0.07111 u1 .% 5 " " " " " " .( ) u1 TCDZ BC ( ) .(R=06.66%) %6 : : : -1 217 « » 2017 03 - %5 . - : -2 - . - . - : (2014 -2009) :01 ( ) : 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 18.906 15.745 13.604 15.951 15.573 15.140 15 25 30 36 27 25 .2015 30 : BC ADF :02 « » 218 2017 03 %5 02 0.8438 2.79 0.197271- b 0.0602 3.11 1.891215 c 0.2306 3.433778- 2.717942- ø 0.0513 2.876- 2.866- c 02 ø 02 0.0896 1.942- 1.670- ø EViews 8 : (DBC) (ADF) :03 %5 2.79 0.892711- 0.3723 b 02 0.4525 3.11 0.752841 c 0.0000 3.433778- 14.93089- ø 0.9581 2.54 2.052615- c 02 0.0000 2.376677- 14.91582- ø 14.95638- 02 0.0000 1.942517- ø EViews 8 : 219 « » 2017 03 TCDZ :04 P=5 P=4 P=3 P=2 P=1 P=0 6.605 6.590 6.579 6.588 6.653 6.826 Akaike 6.727 6.694 6.665 6.657 6.705 6.680 Schwarz EViews 8 : TCDZ (ADF) :05 %5 0.0001 2.79 4.112743 b 02 0.0000 3.11 4.523540 c 0.0017 3.43378- 4.541965- ø 0.0565 2.54 1.918937 c 02 0.3543 2.876677- 1.852574- ø 0.7919 1.942517- 0.376013 ø 02 EViews 8 : (ADF) : 06 (DTCDZ) « » 220 2017 03 %5 0.9094 2.79 0.113968 b 02 3.11 0.257182 c 0.0000 3.433906- 12.25687- ø 0.4637 2.54 0.734368 c 02 0.0000 2.876759- 12.28936- ø 0.0000 1.942527- 12.28272- ø 02 EViews 8 : u1 ADF :07 %5 0.3465 2.79 0.943848- b 02 0.4374 3.11 0.778229 c 0.2289 3.433778 - - ø 2.722282 0.9272 2.54 0.091455- c 02 0.0711 2.786677 - - ø 2.728317 0.0063 1.942517- - ø 02 2.739754 EViews 8 : 221 « » 2017 03 : 02 :01 (2014 -1999) (2014 -1999) : : Excel 2007 01 Excel 2007 01 :04 :03 (2014 -1999) (2014 -1999) « » 222 2017 03 : : Excel 2007 01 Excel 2007 01 :05 BC :06 - 1999 ) TCDZ (2014 -1999) (2014 223 « » 2017 03 : : EViews8 EViews8 :08 :07 - 1999 ) (DTCDZ) (DBC) (2014 (2014 -1999 ) DTCDZ 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 : : EViews 8 EViews 8 (2014 -1999) :01 ) (f.o.b) (f.o.b) ( « » 224 2017 03 ) ( 17.8 70.9715 8.96 0.41 11.91 12.32 3.36 1999 28.5 69.4307 9.35 0.59 21.06 21.65 12.30 2000 24.3 69.2036 9.48 0.56 18.53 19.09 9.61 2001 25.2 75.3454 12.01 0.61 18.11 18.71 6.70 2002 29.0 87.4722 13.32 0.47 23.99 14.46 11.14 2003 38.7 89.6423 17.95 0.66 31.55 32.22 14.27 2004 54.6 91.3014 19.86 0.74 45.59 46.33 26.47 2005 65.7 91.2447 20.68 1.13 53.61 54.74 34.06 2006 74.9 94.9973 26.35 0.98 59.61 60.59 34.24 2007 99.9 94.8622 37.99 1.4 77.19 78.59 40.60 2008 62.2 101.299 37.4 0.77 44.41 45.19 7.78 2009 80.2 99.1927 38.88 0.96 56.12 57.09 18.20 2010 112.9 102.2154 46.927 1.22 71.66 72.88 25.96 2011 111 102.1627 51.569 1.15 70.58 71.73 20.17 2012 109.5 105.4374 54.987 1.05 63.66 64.71 9.73 2013 100.2 106.9064 59.67 1.63 58.36 59.99 0.32 2014 Source : - banque d’algerie, bultins statistiques trimestriels N0(01 à 30), de (2002 à 2015). -European central bank (ECB), consulté le 17/11/2015 sur le lien : 225 « » 2017 03 http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/quickview.do;jsessionid=830134AFD760806EB2B93B4563412BF5?SER IES_KEY=120.EXR.A.USD.EUR.SP00.A&periodSortOrder=ASC : .( ) .22: 2011 – 1 2005 . 2 .44: – 3 .120: 2010 – 4Dominik Salvatore, économie internationale, traduction de la 9e édition américaine par FbienneLeloupe et Achille Hannequart, groupe de Boeck,2008, p:597. 5Ibid, p : 597. .258: 2007 - – 6 .153: 1999 – - 7 « » 226 2017 03.
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