Attached to the World Few other countries are so interrelated with the world around us in political, economic, and social respects as the Netherlands. This means that the Dutch government needs to be alert in its response to the risks and opportunities presented by a rapidly changing world. Attached Addressing this issue, the Scientific Council for Government Policy (wrr) offers some reflections in this report, guided by the question how the Netherlands can develop a foreign policy strategy that matches the changing power relations in the to the World world and the radically changed character of international relations. on the anchoring and strategy The answer to this question is a reorientation. This means making transparent of dutch foreign policy attached to the world choices, making smarter use of Europe as our dominant arena, and, finally, choosing an approach that makes better use of the growing role of non-state actors. The report’s recommendations not only underline the necessity of reorientation but also show how this could be accomplished in practice. Ben Knapen, Gera Arts, Yvonne Kleistra, Martijn Klem & Marijke Rem ISBN 978 90 8964 328 5 Amsterdam University Press • www.aup.nl AMSTERDAM UNIVERSITY PRESS Attached to the World This book is based on a report that was published by The Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy (wrr). According to the Act of Establishment, it is the Council’s task to supply, on behalf of government policy, scientifically sound information on developments which may affect society in the long term, and to draw timely attention to likely anomalies and obstacles, to define major policy problems and to indicate policy alternatives. The Council draws up its own programme of work, after consultation with the Prime Minister, who also takes cognisance of the cabinet’s view on the proposed programme. The Council (2008-2012) has the following composition: prof. dr. J.A. Knottnerus (chairman) prof. dr. ir. M.B.A. van Asselt prof. dr. P.A.H. van Lieshout prof. dr. H.M. Prast prof. mr. J.E.M. Prins prof. dr. ir. G.H. de Vries prof. dr. P. Winsemius Executive director: dr. W. Asbeek Brusse Lange Vijverberg 4-5 P.O. Box 20004 2500 EA ’s-Gravenhage Tel. +31 70 356 46 00 Fax +31 70 356 46 85 E-mail: [email protected] Internet: http://www.wrr.nl SCIENTIFIC COUNCIL FOR GOVERNMENT POLICY Attached to the World on the anchoring and strategy of dutch foreign policy Ben Knapen, Gera Arts, Yvonne Kleistra, Martijn Klem & Marijke Rem Amsterdam University Press, Amsterdam 2011 Translation: The Text Consultant Front cover illustration: © Lijnontwerp / Studio Daniëls Cover design: Studio Daniëls, The Hague Layout: Het Steen Typografie, Maarssen isbn 978 90 8964 328 5 e-isbn 978 90 4851 449 6 nur 759 / 754 © wrr / Amsterdam University Press, The Hague / Amsterdam 2011 All rights reserved. Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved above, no part of this book may be reproduced, stored in or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recor- ding or otherwise) without the written permission of both the copyright owner and the author of the book. 5 contents Summary 7 Preface 13 1 Motivation and Background: an Introduction 15 1.1 Motivation 15 1.2 Background 17 1.3 Problem Definition 21 1.4 Limitations and Structure of This Report 23 2 From Fragmentation to Strategy 25 2.1 Tilting of the Policy Agenda 26 2.1.1 Security 27 2.1.2 Energy 31 2.1.3 Climate 33 2.2 Consequences for Foreign Policy 34 2.2.1 Foreign Policy as a Doughnut 34 2.2.2 Punching above Its Weight 35 2.2.3 Public Opinion as an Uncertain Factor 38 2.3 Towards Clear Choices and Priorities 41 2.3.1 Awareness of the Global Context 42 2.3.2 Interest-Based Prioritising 43 2.3.3 Niches as Specialisations 50 2.3.4 Some Examples of Niches 51 2.4 Conclusion 56 3 Europe: Arena and Link 59 3.1 Beyond Two Mental Worlds 60 3.1.1 nato 61 3.1.2 Europe as a Power Bloc… 63 3.1.3 … and Europe as a Network 64 3.1.4 A New Avenue 66 3.2 Europe as a Political Arena 68 3.3 Europe as a Link to the World Stage 70 3.3.1 External Policy in the Treaty of Lisbon 71 3.3.2 The European Council 72 3.4 A Convoy Carrying Two Flags 73 3.4.1 Consequences for the Scope of Action 74 3.4.2 National and European Ambitions 75 6 attached to the world 3.5 The Netherlands in Europe 77 3.5.1 Sovereign and Attached 77 3.5.2 Shared European Destinies 80 3.6 Conclusion 82 4 Directing and Facilitating 85 4.1 Organising Strategic Foreign Policy 86 4.1.1 Ministry of General and European Affairs 86 4.1.2 Foreign Affairs as a Technical Ministry 90 4.2 Using Existing Instruments 91 4.2.1 hgis as a Steering Instrument 91 4.2.2 Made-to-Measure Network of Embassies 93 4.2.3 Knowledge beyond International Headlines 94 4.3 Switching between State and Non-State Arenas 96 4.3.1 Centrality 99 4.3.2 Cooperation 100 4.3.3 Soft Power 103 4.4 Conclusion 104 5 Conclusions and Recommendations 107 5.1 The Netherlands in a Changing World 107 5.2 Opportunities for Setting Our ‘Own Agenda’ 109 5.2.1 Tilting of Issues 109 5.2.2 Consequences for Foreign Policy 110 5.2.3 Strategic Choices 111 5.3 Reorientation on Europe 113 5.4 Towards a New Practice 115 5.4.1 Another Approach 115 5.4.2 Using Instruments in a Different Way 116 5.4.3 Goal-Orientated Cooperation 117 5.5 In Conclusion 118 List of Abbreviations 119 References 121 List of Interviewees 135 Appendix 1 141 Appendix 2 143 Appendix 3 147 Appendix 4 149 7 summary Attached to the World: On the Anchoring and Strategy of Dutch Foreign Policy The Netherlands is attached to the world. Few other countries are as closely inter- woven politically, economically and socially with the world around us. That makes Dutch foreign policy a strategic affair. The Dutch government has to deliver an alert response to the risks and opportunities of a rapidly changing world. Today’s world can best be described as hybrid in nature. On the one hand, there is the familiar world of geopolitics and nation states. That world is currently going through a shift in the balance of power towards the East. On the other hand, there is the ‘network world’, populated not only by states, but increasingly also by non-state actors. State borders present virtually no obstacle to these networks. Seen from this perspective, it is no longer possible to speak of the foreign policy of the state; it is more correct to think in terms of many different expressions of foreign policy within a ‘disaggregated state’. Increasingly, ministries and agencies have their own objectives in international affairs and participate autonomously in international networks, especially in a European context. As a consequence, the traditional distinction between ‘domestic’ and ‘foreign’ is becoming increasingly blurred. Most people in the Netherlands experience this differently. To them, the Dutch state remains the primary actor in relations with the outside world. At the same time they are unsure what position the Netherlands occupies in today’s world. Familiar reference points are disappearing and partly as a result of the financial crisis, global power relations are shifting faster than most people could ever have imagined. There is a growing tension between this feeling of being threatened by the outside world and the need to nurture the relationship with that same world. Domestic tensions, fading dividing lines between ‘domestic’ and ‘foreign’, and the opportunities and risks presented by a hybrid world create a need for a study of the changing conditions of foreign policy and of the possibilities and limitations these conditions offer. This report aims to contribute to a new orientation towards the outside world. It focuses on the question of how the Netherlands can develop a foreign policy strategy that reflects both the shifts in the global power balance and the radically altered nature of international relations. Our answer to this question is that foreign policy needs to be rethought. We underpin this by examining first how the Netherlands can develop its own strategic foreign policy, then by explaining how this policy could be embedded in Europe as the dominant policy arena, and lastly by pointing out how such a strategic foreign policy could be put into practice. 8 attached to the world From fragmentation to strategy The agenda of topics in Dutch foreign policy has changed fundamentally. National policy themes have become global issues, the international agenda has expanded considerably, and the fixed order of policy themes has disappeared. In addition, different policy areas have become interconnected and are no longer addressed exclusively in the interstate arena (geopolitics), but also in intra-state and non-state arenas (network world). The Netherlands has traditionally aspired to play an active international role. The government’s response to the turbulent expansion of the foreign policy agenda is in line with this aspiration: doing as much as possible with as many partners as possible. As illustrated by the traditional notion of the Netherlands as a ‘model country’ or by recent Dutch contributions to international peace missions, Dutch foreign policy is still firmly grounded in a deep-seated need to play a robust role in the international arena.