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A Preventive Approach to Post-Election Conflicts in Contemporary Africa Edoh Agbehonou Kennesaw State University, [email protected]

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A Preventive Approach to Post-Election Conflicts in Contemporary Africa Edoh Agbehonou Kennesaw State University, Eagbehon@Kennesaw.Edu Kennesaw State University DigitalCommons@Kennesaw State University Dissertations, Theses and Capstone Projects 12-8-2014 A Preventive Approach to Post-Election Conflicts in Contemporary Africa Edoh Agbehonou Kennesaw State University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: http://digitalcommons.kennesaw.edu/etd Part of the International Relations Commons, and the Peace and Conflict Studies Commons Recommended Citation Agbehonou, Edoh, "A Preventive Approach to Post-Election Conflicts in Contemporary Africa" (2014). Dissertations, Theses and Capstone Projects. Paper 650. This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by DigitalCommons@Kennesaw State University. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations, Theses and Capstone Projects by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@Kennesaw State University. For more information, please contact [email protected]. A Preventive Approach to Post-Election Conflicts in Contemporary Africa Edoh Agbehonou A Preventive Approach to Post-Election Conflicts in Contemporary Africa Edoh Agbehonou Kennesaw State University Dissertation for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in International Conflict Management Committee Members Dr. Richard Vengroff (Chair) Dr. Nurudeen Akinyemi Dr. Oumar Diop Dr. Tamara Powell i A Preventive Approach to Post-Election Conflicts in Contemporary Africa Edoh Agbehonou Table of Contents Abstract ………………………………………………………………………………................. vi Acknowledgements....................................................................................................................... vii Acronyms and Abbreviations ....................................................................................................... ix CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION …………………………………………………............ 1 1.1. A Brief Background .............................................................................................. 1 1.2. Statement of the Problem …………………………………………………............ 3 1.3. Why Study Post-Election Conflicts? ………………………………………........ 13 1.4. Why Contemporary Africa? …………………………………………………...... 20 1.5. Overview of the Thesis ………………………………………………………..... 25 CHAPTER TWO: UNDERSTANDING POST-ELECTION VIOLENCE IN AFRICA… 29 2.1 Literature Review ……………………………………………………………………… 29 2.1.1. Definition of Conflict and Causes of Post-Election Instability ………………..... 30 2.1.1.1. Defining Post-Election Conflicts and Political Instability …………...... 30 2.1.1.2. Types of Electoral Conflicts …………………………………………... 33 2.1.1.3. Potential Causes of Post-Election Instability ……………………......... 43 2.1.2. Necessity of Elections and Neo-Patrimonialism …………………………............ 51 2.1.3. Consequences of Social Cleavages on Electoral Systems ……............................. 53 2.1.3.1. Defining Social Cleavages ……………………………………….......... 53 2.1.3.2. Consequences of Social Cleavages ...........……………………….......... 56 2.1.4. Ethnic Manipulation ………………………………………………………........... 60 2.1.5. Exploring the Gap ………………………………………………………….......... 62 2.2. Explaining Post-Election Violence: Theoretical Framework for Analysis ……............ 64 ii A Preventive Approach to Post-Election Conflicts in Contemporary Africa Edoh Agbehonou 2.2.1. The Social Cleavages and Party System Theory (SCPST) .................................... 64 2.2.2. The Bounded Rationality Theory (BRT) ............................................................... 65 2.2.3. Democratization Approach (DA) ........................................................................... 67 2.2.4. Relative Deprivation Theory (RDT) ...................................................................... 68 CHAPTER THREE: DATA AND METHODS ………………………………….................. 70 3.1. Operationalizing Key Concepts ……………………………………........................ 71 3.1.1. Electoral Systems ………………………………………………............... 71 3.1.2. Elections ……………………………………………………………......... 72 3.1.3. Level of Electoral Conflicts ……………………………………............... 75 3.1.4. Disproportional Index …………………………………………................ 77 3.1.5. Ethnic Fractionalization Index …………………………………............... 78 3.1.6. Living Standard ………………………………………………….............. 78 3.1.7. Unemployment Rate ……………………………………………….......... 79 3.1.8. Level of Inequality ………………………………………………............. 79 3.1.9. District Magnitude ..................................................................................... 80 3.2. Methodological Approach …………………………………………………........ 80 3.2.1. Data Collection and Sources …………………………….......................... 81 3.2.2. Reliability of the Sources …………………………………....................... 82 3.2.3. Data and Coding …………………………………………........................ 84 3.2.4. Data Transformation and Regression Analysis …………......................... 86 3.2.5. In-depth Comparative Analysis – Pattern Matching ………………........ 106 CHAPTER FOUR: VARIATIONS IN ELECTORAL SYSTEMS IN CONTEMPORARY AFRICA …………………………………………………………………………………........ 112 iii A Preventive Approach to Post-Election Conflicts in Contemporary Africa Edoh Agbehonou 4.1. Electoral Systems in Democratizing Countries: Examining African Models ........ 113 4.2. Elections and Party Systems ………………………………………………........... 128 CHAPTER FIVE: IN-DEPTH COMPARATIVE CASE STUDIES – MOST SIMILAR VERSUS MOST DIFFERENT CASES ………………………………………………......... 139 5.1. Political Institutions and Voting Behavior in African States ……………….......... 139 5.1.1. A Brief Political History and Electoral Dynamics of the Cases ….......... 140 5.1.1.1. The Case of Benin ……………………………………............. 140 5.1.1.2. The Case of Ghana ……………………………………............ 143 5.1.1.3. The Case of Guinea ……………………………………........... 146 5.1.1.4. The Case of Guinea-Bissau …………………………............... 150 5.1.1.5. The Case of Togo ……………………………………….......... 153 5.1.1.6. The Case of Senegal ………………………………….............. 155 5.1.2. Effects of Political Institutions on Voting Behavior ………………........ 158 5.2. Comparing Democratic Qualities of Elections ………………………………....... 163 5.3. Election Sequencing, Management, and Monitoring ……………………….......... 188 5.4. Role of Civil Society and traditional Authorities in Promoting Democracy and Conflict Mitigation ………………………………………………………………......... 200 5.5. Consequences of Electoral Systems and the Rules of the Game on Democratic Alternations ………………………………………………………………………........ 205 CHAPTER SIX: RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUDING REMARKS …........... 213 6.1. Electoral Systems and Conflict Prevention ………………………………………............ 213 6.2. Policy Implications ………………………………………………………………............. 217 6.3. Recommendations ………………………………………………………………….......... 221 iv A Preventive Approach to Post-Election Conflicts in Contemporary Africa Edoh Agbehonou 6.4. Elections as Learning Experiences ………………………………………………............. 227 6.5. Limitations of the Study ………………………………………………………….............. 233 Appendices ................................................................................................................................. 234 References .................................................................................................................................. 252 v A Preventive Approach to Post-Election Conflicts in Contemporary Africa Edoh Agbehonou Abstract The 2012 Freedom House Report reveals that only 12 percent of Sub-Saharan African countries are totally free or democratic compared to 71 percent in the Americas and 85 in Western Europe (see figure 1, Chapter 1). This descriptive statistic shows how poorly most countries in Africa are doing when it comes to embracing democratic culture. Free, transparent and fair elections; respect for human rights; protection of the rights of minorities; majority rule; separation of powers; and elimination of systemic corruption constitute major tenets of democracy. In many African countries, basic human rights are often violated and abused. In most cases, both the economic and political powers are confiscated and held in the hands of small groups of corrupt elites who through the use of force preside over the destiny of their countries. Since the adoption of multiparty systems in some African countries in the 1990s, most elections have been marred by violence and/or boycotts by political opponents who continue to question not only the fairness and the transparency of such elections but also the validity of the electoral systems of their countries. Is it legitimate to say that among the various types of electoral systems, one particular type is more prone to conflicts than the other systems? (Staffan 2005, Kunicova and Rose-Ackerman 2005, Kunicova and Rose-Ackerman 2002, Boix 2002, Reilly and Reynolds 1999). Addressing such a question requires a thorough discussion of the consequences of electoral systems for elections and electoral behaviors in Africa. In this dissertation the author hypothesizes that (H1): In Africa, countries that use majoritarian electoral systems are more likely to experience post-election conflicts than are countries that use proportional electoral systems, (H2): In Africa, countries that use majoritarian electoral systems are more likely to experience post-election conflicts than are countries that use mixed electoral systems, and (H3): In Africa, countries that use mixed electoral systems are more likely to experience post-election conflicts than are countries that use proportional electoral systems. These hypotheses will be tested by using both primary qualitative and secondary quantitative data analyses in order to answer the research question: “In Africa, why do some
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