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Thailand's Moment of Truth — Royal Succession After the King Passes Away.” - U.S

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Thailand's Moment of Truth — Royal Succession After the King Passes Away.” - U.S THAILAND’S MOMENT OF TRUTH A SECRET HISTORY OF 21ST CENTURY SIAM #THAISTORY | VERSION 1.0 | 241011 ANDREW MACGREGOR MARSHALL MAIL | TWITTER | BLOG | FACEBOOK | GOOGLE+ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. This story is dedicated to the people of Thailand and to the memory of my colleague Hiroyuki Muramoto, killed in Bangkok on April 10, 2010. Many people provided wonderful support and inspiration as I wrote it. In particular I would like to thank three whose faith and love made all the difference: my father and mother, and the brave girl who got banned from Burma. ABOUT ME I’m a freelance journalist based in Asia and writing mainly about Asian politics, human rights, political risk and media ethics. For 17 years I worked for Reuters, including long spells as correspondent in Jakarta in 1998-2000, deputy bureau chief in Bangkok in 2000-2002, Baghdad bureau chief in 2003-2005, and managing editor for the Middle East in 2006-2008. In 2008 I moved to Singapore as chief correspondent for political risk, and in late 2010 I became deputy editor for emerging and frontier Asia. I resigned in June 2011, over this story. I’ve reported from more than three dozen countries, on every continent except South America. I’ve covered conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Lebanon, the Palestinian Territories and East Timor; and political upheaval in Israel, Indonesia, Cambodia, Thailand and Burma. Of all the leading world figures I’ve interviewed, the three I most enjoyed talking to were Aung San Suu Kyi, Xanana Gusmao, and the Dalai Lama. I also regularly give presentations to corporate executives and finance industry analysts, mainly on political risk, dealing with risk as a manager, and on predicting future political and social trends in Asia. I’ve lectured at several universities in Asia and Europe, and given presentations to military officers at the Pentagon, in London and at the Peace Support Operations Training Centre in Sarajevo, to train soldiers on how to safely coexist with journalists in conflict zones. You can view my blog here and follow me on Facebook here. ABOUT #THAISTORY “Perhaps the biggest bombshell of reportage on Thailand in decades… Marshall’s account is the most thorough, and in many ways damning, assessment of the royal family’s influence over politics in history. His reporting, and the cables they are based upon, leaves no stone unturned – or unblemished: The queen’s influence, often negative, over the tense situation in southern Thailand; the military’s growing use of lese majeste laws to crack down on opposition; the foibles and venality of the crown prince; the vultures circling around the palace as the end of King Bhumibol’s long reign ends.” – Joshua Kurlantzick, Southeast Asia fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations “Public commentary that deals with the messiness of Thailand’s recent political history is risky. Anything that touches on the personalities, activities or priorities of the royal family is especially dangerous…. Transgressions can lead to tough consequences. Thais and foreigners alike have gone to gaol for stepping out of line. Andrew MacGregor Marshall, a former Reuters man, is under no illusions about these realities. With little thought for his immediate prospects he ditched a 17-year career with the global wire service to publish a mega-essay about Thai royal political intrigue… The first two installments of his long-awaited, four-part contribution, known as #thaistory or more formally as Thailand’s moment of truth: A secret history of 21st century Siam, have quickly become online sensations… Marshall has provided a thorough treatment of thousands of leaked diplomatic communications.... His insights will reverberate in Thai analytical circles for many years to come.” – Nicholas Farrelly, fellow at the Australian National University “Marshall … has written an account of the Thai monarchy at its critical transition and made it available to the public – an act that will certainly guarantee him a lengthy prison sentence for lèse-majesté… Marshall has undoubtedly helped push the boundaries much further as one looks at the present state of the Thai monarchy.” – Pavin Chachavalpongpun, fellow at the Institute of South East Asian Studies in Singapore “Our understanding of the King Lear element in the Thai agony has been vastly illuminated by the WikiLeaks masterwork being produced by the former Reuters journalist Andrew MacGregor Marshall. Marshall describes his distillation of 3000 US diplomatic cables on Thailand as ‘lèse majesté on an epic scale’. This is a statement of plain truth, not bravado… The result is journalism of the highest order.” – Graeme Dobell of the Lowy Institute for International Policy “This is the back-story to Thailand’s political convulsions, which is why scholars will be poring over the ‘Thaistory’, as will American diplomats and their embarrassed confidants.” – The Economist magazine’s Banyan blog “Marshall … offers an account of Thailand’s recent troubles that is unprecedented in its scope and candor, reaching back through the country’s history to provide insight into the current situation.” – Erika Fry in the Columbia Journalism Review “Reuters didn't publish this story as we didn't think it worked in the format in which it was delivered. We had questions regarding length, sourcing, objectivity, and legal issues. Also, we were concerned the writer wasn't participating in the normal editing process that would apply to any story Reuters publishes.” – Reuters statement on why it refused to publish articles related to #thaistory. I resigned as a result. NOTES There are several ways to transliterate Thai into English, and there is little agreement even on basic ground rules. The U.S. cables often use eccentric spelling for Thai names, and often use several different spellings, sometimes even within a single cable. Quotes from the cables and other sources are reproduced verbatim, even if this means conflicting spellings within the text. In August 2011, all of the quarter-million leaked U.S. diplomatic cables began circulating online, raw and unredacted. This was a result of Guardian journalists David Leigh and Luke Harding publishing the full encryption key for the Cablegate database in a book rushed out in February 2011 to profit from global interest in the WikiLeaks phenomenon. The database itself was carelessly left buried in a subfolder of a large file of WikiLeaks published data, circulated freely via bit torrent to help create mirror sites; it was hidden within the file but easily accessed by those who knew where to look. Daniel Domscheit-Berg, a former WikiLeaks spokesman who spectacularly fell out with Julian Assange, helped draw attention to the location of the data, and where to find the password, as part of his vociferous battle against his former boss. With the Cablegate database breached, WikiLeaks had no real choice other than to release all the redacted cables itself. Many of those who support the WikiLeaks project, including me, regard the whole episode as a disaster: hundreds of people around the world have been put at risk because cables that name them have been published. Freedom of information is a right worth fighting for, but like all potentially explosive substances, information must be handled responsibly. WikiLeaks was careless, Leigh and Harding were stupid and irresponsible, Domscheit-Berg was vindictive, and the result was a catastrophic breach of trust that has put people in danger. In earlier versions of “Thailand’s Moment of Truth”, I took considerable care to redact the cables in line with a set of guidelines that I regarded to be the most ethical approach. Now that the raw cables are widely available, the story cites and links to the original cables; however, I have avoided drawing attention to information that could put anybody in Thailand at unreasonable risk. #thaistory is a living document. It will continue to be updated, expanded and improved. I welcome all corrections, opinions and suggestions. Thank you. “The battle lines in Thailand's political environment are clearly drawn... The Thaksin machine faces off against a mix of royalists, Bangkok middle class, and southerners, with Queen Sirikit having emerged as their champion, as King Bhumibol largely fades from an active role.... They are positioning themselves for what key actors on both sides freely admit to us in private will be Thailand's moment of truth — royal succession after the King passes away.” - U.S. cable 08BANGKOK3289, November 4, 2008. ช้างตายทั้งตัวเอาใบบัวปิดไม่มิด - Thai proverb “Nothing will come of nothing; speak again.” - Lear to Cordelia; William Shakespeare, King Lear, Act I Scene I 7 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 PROLOGUE: “THE DYSFUNCTIONAL FAMILY PICNIC” 8 I. “A WATERSHED MOMENT IN THAI HISTORY” 22 II. “LOVE OF FLYING AND WOMEN” 53 III. “FEAR AND LOATHING FOR THE QUEEN” 74 IV. “THESE PEOPLE LIVE IN AN ALTERNATE REALITY” 107 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY PROLOGUE: “THE DYSFUNCTIONAL FAMILY PICNIC” - Thailand’s King Rama IX, Bhumibol Adulyadej, the world’s longest reigning living monarch, is languishing in hospital as his reign enters its twilight years, beset by ill health, his legacy threatened by rivalries and tension within his own family and multiple power struggles and conflicts throughout the nation. A draconian lèse majesté law outlaws open discussion of the divisions within the palace and the political role played by the monarchy in modern Thai history. But more than 3,000 U.S. diplomatic cables on Thailand, leaked by American soldier Bradley Manning during a tour of duty in Iraq in 2009 and 2010, provide detailed insight into the monarchy’s role in Thailand’s political conflict and the risk of a looming crisis over the royal succession. I gained access to the cables in the spring of 2011 through my work as a senior Reuters editor responsible for Southeast Asia.
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