E-drive Vehicle Sales Analyses
Principal investigator: Yan (Joann) Zhou
Energy Systems Division Argonne National Laboratory
2015 Vehicle Technologies Annual Merit Review June 11, 2015
Project VAN011
This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherwise restricted information Overview Timeline Barriers
Start Date: October 2014 • Lack of readily available historical sales in the End Date: Project continuation and U.S. and other markets • Lack of data on advanced vehicle usage and direction determined annually by DOE survival pattern • Lack of data on cost components for levelized cost analyses • Limited understanding of existing E-drive vehicle purchase trend Budget Partners Total Project Funding (DOE) Interaction/Collaborations • FY14: $84k (plus $56K for Navigant • Hybridcars.com report subscription) • European Automotive Industry Newsletter • Kelley Blue Book, NADA • FY15: $90k • Navigant Research • Tsinghua University, Beijing, China • National Renewable Energy Laboratory
2 Objectives and Relevance
Data acquisition and analysis of sales, usage, cost to improve market modeling of electric-drive vehicle ecosystem and support DOE programs
Task 1: Track global E-drive vehicle sales
Objective: Provide reference data for vehicle choice modeling and DOE/EERE policy impacts analysis
Task 2: Collect vehicle ownership cost data and projections
Objective: More comprehensive levelized cost for advanced vehicle technologies
Task 3: Characterize regional purchase pattern of E-drive vehicles
Objective: Examine geographic distribution and demographics to characterize market
3 Approach and Accomplishments
Task Approach Accomplishments
Task 1: Track global E- Collect historical sales by make • Monthly U.S. EV sales market report drive vehicle sales and model • Monthly data products published on Summarize financial and non- ANL and DOE website financial policies matrix • International sales trend comparison
• E-drive vehicle policy matrix for each country/region
Task 2: Characterize Analyze sales by geographic and • Regional PEV adoption pattern regional purchase demographic factors to pattern determine locations of plug-in • Identified E-drive vehicle market niches vehicle sales and identify market in city/suburb/rural areas niches
Task 3: Collect vehicle Collect vehicle resale values and • Summarized who has what based on ownership cost data and total ownership cost by model data review and discussion with projections (New task) and market segment different data providers
4 Milestones
Due Date Milestones Status Publish monthly sales and market reports Q1 FY2015 Completed Summarize total ownership cost by model and market Q4 FY2015 On schedule Summarize adoption trend and market niches in 4 selected Q4 FY2015 regions On schedule
5 Accomplishment Plug-in Electric Vehicles sales are growing, if somewhat erratically
14,000 14,000 SalesPorsche fluctuateCayenne S E-hybrid due to: •BMWSeasonal i8 change (e.g. January) Cadillac ELR • Product life cycle State Others 12,000 Panamera S E-Hybrid Ford (Fusione.g. Prius Energi PHEV and Volt in the end of 2014) 12,000 incentives •HondaState Accord Incentives Ford C-Max Energi Prius (e.g.PHEV GA began offering $5000 for ZEVs in August 2013) 10,000 •Volt New model introduction/lower price Ford 10,000 Kia Soul(e.g. EV Lower-priced Volt and Leaf in 2013) Ford Supply Fusion VW e-Golf limits •MercedesSupply B-Class limitations C-Max 8,000 •BMWGasoline i3 prices 8,000 Fiat 500E BMW i3 Chevrolet Spark In Vehicle Sales In Vehicle
- RAV4 EV
in Vehicle Sales in Vehicle 6,000 Tesla Model S* - 6,000 Honda Fit EV Tesla Ford Focus Model S BMW Active E Toyota
New Plug Mitsubishi I EV 4,000 Prius 4,000 Smart ED Leaf Nissan Leaf New Plug New
2,000 2,000 Chevrolet Volt 0 0 Jul-14 Jul-13 Jul-12 Jul-11 Oct-14 Oct-13 Oct-12 Oct-11 Apr-14 Apr-13 Jan-15 Apr-12 Jan-14 Apr-11 Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Mar-14 Jun-14 Mar-13 Jun-13 Feb-14 Mar-12 Jun-12 Feb-13 Mar-11 Jun-11 Feb-12 Feb-11 Sep-14 Dec-14 Sep-13 Dec-13 Sep-12 Dec-12 Sep-11 Dec-11 Dec-10 Nov-14 Nov-13 Nov-12 Nov-11 Aug-14 Aug-13 May-14 Aug-12 May-13 Aug-11 May-12 May-11 Jul-14 Jul-13 Jul-12 Jul-11 Oct-14 Oct-13 Oct-12 Oct-11 Apr-14 Apr-13 Jan-15 Apr-12 Jan-14 Apr-11 Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Mar-14 Jun-14 Mar-13 Jun-13 Feb-14 Mar-12 Jun-12 Feb-13 Mar-11 Jun-11 Feb-12 Feb-11 Sep-14 Dec-14 Sep-13 Dec-13 Sep-12 Dec-12 Sep-11 Dec-11 Dec-10 Nov-14 Nov-13 Nov-12 Nov-11 Aug-14 Aug-13 May-14 Aug-12 May-13 Aug-11 May-12 May-11
Source: http://www.transportation.anl.gov/technology_analysis/edrive_vehicle_monthly_sales.html
6 Accomplishment PEVs are available in diverse models covering more vehicle classes and types than HEVs
5.9% 0.8% two seaters 7.2% 0.6% 1.0% 2.2% 4.4% 1.3% minicompact 14.9% subcompact 7.8% compact Large HEVs are predominantly midsize 17.8% large mid-size cars station wagon SUV Midsize Midsize PHEVs tend to be smaller than Pickuppickup 81.7% 54.4% HEVs, with larger shares of HEV compacts and subcompacts PEV
1% 2% 4% 2% 2% 8% BEVs are larger on average
7% 4% than PHEVs (due to success of 28% 32% the large Tesla Model S and Large the mid-size Leaf) 58% Compact Midsize Midsize 51% PHEV EV 2014 Sales by EPA Size Class
Source: http://www.transportation.anl.gov/technology_analysis/edrive_vehicle_monthly_sales.html 7 Accomplishment Fleet efficiency (kWh/100 mi.) is improving over time, but recently at a diminishing rate
38 High-end performance 36 models: i8 and Cayenne S 34
32 Prius PHEV introduced 30 PEVs EVs PHEVs
Sales Weighted kWh/100mi Sales Weighted 2011 2012 2013 2014 28
Fleet Efficiency = Plug-in Improvement is due to EV kWh/100 mi improved notably vehicle sales weighted higher motor efficiency, in 2013-14 vs. 2011-12 kWh/100 mile better batteries and Recent increase in PHEV kWh/100 improved charging efficiency mi is due to introduction of high performance models
Sales: http://www.transportation.anl.gov/technology_analysis/edrive_vehicle_monthly_sales.html Efficiency: www.FuelEonomy.gov 8 Accomplishment Declines in the price of gasoline tend to reduce the incentive for people to buy HEVs. PEVs? The price of gasoline is beyond the control of the automakers. So far it has affected HEVs more than PEVs.
55,000 500 ) 50,000 Gasoline Price 450 45,000 400 40,000 350 35,000 300 30,000 cents/gallon 250 25,000 200 20,000 150 Monthly Sales Monthly 15,000 100 10,000 HEV Sales PEV Sales 5,000 50 Gasoline Price (
0 0 Jul-07 Jul-06 Jul-05 Jul-04 Jul-03 Jul-02 Jul-01 Jul-00 Oct-05 Oct-04 Oct-03 Oct-02 Oct-01 Oct-00 Oct-99 Apr-07 Apr-06 Apr-05 Jan-05 Apr-04 Jan-04 Apr-03 Jan-03 Apr-02 Jan-02 Apr-01 Jan-01 Apr-00 Jan-00 Jun-08 Mar-08 Jun-09 Mar-09 Jun-10 Mar-10 Jun-11 Mar-11 Jun-12 Mar-12 Jun-13 Mar-13 Jun-14 Mar-14 Jun-15 Mar-15 Sep-07 Sep-06 Dec-07 Sep-08 Dec-06 Dec-05 Dec-08 Sep-09 Dec-09 Sep-10 Dec-10 Sep-11 Dec-11 Sep-12 Dec-12 Sep-13 Dec-13 Sep-14 Dec-14 Sep-15
Source: http://www.transportation.anl.gov/technology_analysis/edrive_vehicle_monthly_sales.html 9 Accomplishment Extensive use of data products by DOE programs and other agencies . Publish monthly sales and market trend on both Argonne and DOE websites . Support DOE/EERE programs and activities such as eGallon . Develop extra charts and provide interpretation as needed for DOE project managers (market share, comparison of sales by model since market introduction, etc.) . National Science Foundation links to ANL EV sales webpage
DOE Website: http://energy.gov/articles/visualizing- electric-vehicle-sales ANL Website: http://www.transportation.anl.gov/techn ology_analysis/edrive_vehicle_monthly_ sales.html
10 Accomplishment E-drive vehicle policy matrix for each country/region (China example)
. Numerical Targets: Chinese State Council established goal 5 million PEV sales by 2020 under “Ten Cities One Thousand Vehicles” program . Regulation/Emission Standards: Set fleet average fuel consumption target of 5 L/100 km (47 mpg) by 2020 . Fiscal Incentives to Consumers: – Phase 1 Subsidy: (2009-2012) for purchases of vehicles used for public service, such as taxis and transit buses in selected cities. – Phase 1 Subsidy was extended in 2012 to nationwide. Subsidies were based on each vehicle’s battery capacity: about $490/kWh toward any private PEV purchase (maximum $8200 per PHEV and $9835 per EV. – Phase 2 Subsidy: (9/2013- Present) the basis for obtaining subsidy shifted from battery capacity to electric range (about $5700 - $100,000 for range over 30 miles) – Phase 2 Subsidy will scale back by 20% in 2017-2018 and by 40% in 2019-2020
11 Accomplishment Factors impacting early EV sales (Japan example)
Toyota Incentive New incentive Auto sales tax Mitsubishi started increased, released Prius Purchase tax Extended accidents Bad weather Mitsubishi PHEV exemption released expired MiniCab Van
Fukushima earthquake
12 Accomplishment Although the U.S. sells more PEVs, Japan sells many more HEVs and has a much higher market share
U.S. Vs. Japan Vs. W. Europe Sales and Market Share (of new car sales)
21.6% 20.1% 19.3%
6.1% 5.5% 5.4% 9.2% 11%
3.9% 3.7% 1.5% 1.6% 1.1% .8% .71% 1.25% 1.5% .49% .28% .32% .59% .68% .65% .1% .2% .34%
13 Note: Europe sales are BEV and PHEV combined Accomplishment California leads the US in the adoption of PEVs. Charging infrastructure matches fairly well with PEV share.
2014 PEV Share Vs. Charging Outlets Share by State PEV/1000 people
Note: ZEV MOU States
PEV Stock Share
Others 20%
CA 45% %PEV: state share of PEVs %CO: state share of charging outlets %LDV: state share of LDVs
Sources: Registration data provided by National Renewable Energy Laboratory 14 Population data estimated from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimation by July 1 2014 GA 6% Accomplishment BEVx most successful in outer suburbs; EREVs beat BEVs & PHEVs throughout suburbs (Chicago example)
While BEVs in total look competitive in IL, REX’ added gasoline range increases i3 affordable,100 mi. range mass market BEVs do not marketability, expands low density suburban and rural shares.
Source: Registration data provided by National Renewable Energy Laboratory 15 5/18/2015 Accomplishment High performance BEV benefits far exceed those of standard performance BEVs at all mph
High performance BEVs save much more than PHEVs
Compared to comparable gasoline vehicle Infrastructure Impact Question: Will workplace charging be enough to help high performance PHEVs?
16 5/18/2015 Collaboration and Coordination Tsinghua University, Explore opportunity Beijing provides for data acquisition sales from China and analysis with and Japan market Alg, Vincentric, etc
Collaborate with G. Mitchell (NREL) on regional PEV sales analysis
European Automotive Industry Newsletter (based in UK) provides European sales and gives permission to use the data 17 Proposed Future Work
Task Future Work
Collect global E-drive vehicle • Continue tracking U.S. sales and publish data products sales monthly
• Gather and maintain international E-drive vehicle sales and incentives databases for comparison
• Analyze sales to show trend and market niches
Characterize regional • Additional cities/regions (Atlanta, Boston, Los Angeles) purchase pattern of E-drive vehicles • Derive heterogenic national purchase/adoption trend
Collect vehicle ownership • Collect resale data of E-drive vehicles from chosen database cost data and projections • Analyze levelized cost (TCO) and depreciation by market segment
18 Summary . Relevance . Collaborations – Support vehicle choice and market modeling – Collect data and information from Tsinghua and related energy and GHG emission University and other agencies estimation in support of DOE advanced vehicle – Collaborate with NREL on regional E-drive programs vehicle adoption analysis . Approach . Future Work – Collect sales from collaborators and provide – Continue tracking U.S. sales and publish data analysis & interpretation products monthly – Summarize vehicle resale values and total – Gather and maintain international E-drive ownership cost by market segment vehicle sales and incentives databases for – Characterize market characterization by comparison geographic and demographic factors to – Analyze sales to show trend and market niches determine locations and identify market niches – Additional cities/regions (Atlanta, Boston, Los . Technical Accomplishments Angeles) – Monthly U.S. EV sales market report – Derive heterogenic national purchase/adoption – Monthly data products published on ANL and trend DOE website – Collect resale data of E-drive vehicles from third – International sales trends comparison party – E-drive vehicle policy matrix for each – Analyze levelized cost (TCO) and depreciation of country/region E-drive vehicle by market segment – Regional PEV adoption pattern – E-drive vehicle market niches in city/suburb/rural areas
19 Technical Back-up Slides
20 China’s Phase I and Phase II EV incentives for both passenger vehicles and buses
Phase1 Phase 2 Target market Public Private Public and Private Incentive duration 2009-2012 2010-2012 2013-2015 Incentive scope HEV, PHEV, BEV, PHEV, BEV PHEV, BEV, FCEV FCEV Subsidy Standard HEV PV Up to 50,000¥ Bus Up to 420,000¥ (L>= 10 m) PHEV PV Up to 50,000¥ 3,000¥/kWh 35,000¥ (R>=50 km) Bus Up to 420,000¥ 250,000¥ (L>=10 m) (L>= 10 m) BEV PV 60,000¥ 3,000¥/kWh 35,000¥ (80km
New energy vehicle in China includes HEV, PHEV, BEV, FCV
Data source: Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
Data source: Tsinghua University, Beijing, China Western Europe: Electric car sales pace, far from growing, is slowing
Norway is responsible for Last minute rush for tax one-in-three of EVs sold saving which expired in in Western Europe the Netherlands by the end of 2013
Data source: Automotive Industry Newsletter 23 W. Europe: 2014 PEV sales is up 51.7% from 2013 with 58,582 units sold. Norway still leads the market but gradually maturing
Top 3 Selling Models in 2014
Data source: Automotive Industry Newsletter Highlights from Western Europe E-drive Market
. Norway is responsible for one-in-three of EVs sold in Western Europe (WE). Monthly EV sales share of passenger cars reached record high in August, 15.2% . Top selling PEV models includes Nissan Leaf (25.1%), Tesla Model S (18.1%), BMW i3 (16.7%) and Renault Zoe (13.5%) . Over half of BMW i3 sold in Germany now come equipped with the range-extender engine . In France, in spite of a tempting €6,300 government sweetener to anyone buying a qualifying electric car, the segment has barely taken off, accounting <10% of WE EV market
Data source: Automotive Industry Newsletter
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