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Aluminum Content in European Cars

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Aluminum Content in European Cars ALUMINUM CONTENT IN EUROPEAN PASSENGER CARS Prepared for - Public Summary - 10.10.2019 © 2019 DuckerFrontier. All rights reserved | www.duckerfrontier.com 1 TABLE OF CONTENT Assessment Scope 3 European Car Production 5 European Electric Vehicle Production 7 Aluminum Content in Cars 9 Aluminum Content by Vehicle Segment 11 Aluminum Content by Vehicle Brand 13 Aluminum Content by Vehicle Model 14 Aluminum Content by Component Group 15 Aluminum Content by Forming Process 19 Aluminum Content Evolution 2016-2028 20 Comparison of Aluminum Content by Powertrain Type 21 © 2019 DuckerFrontier. All rights reserved | www.duckerfrontier.com 2 ASSESSMENT SCOPE This assessment of the Aluminum Content in European Passenger Cars encompasses all aluminum applications in a car, includes electric vehicles, and is based on the analysis of a car sample covering nearly 95% of total EU28 production Scope Deliverables Application scope: Passenger cars CURRENT ALUMINUM CONTENT IN CARS1 (2019) • Aluminium content by vehicle Geographic scope: EU 28 (production location in EU 28 - CKD not Component net weight (for components in focus) included) Forming process / Product form (sheet vs. extruded vs. cast vs. forged) Vehicle sample: accounts for 94.3% of total EU 28 production Estimated additional aluminum content by vehicle • Vehicle models have been jointly selected with EA (subcategories “Other”) • 11 pure BEV models included in the sample: [For engine blocks, cylinder heads and steering knuckles only] Share of primary vs. secondary ⁻ BMW 3 Series EV aluminum ⁻ Mercedes Benz EQC ⁻ Mercedes Benz EQE Sedan • Average aluminium content per vehicle (after extrapolation to ⁻ Ford C EV whole EU28 production) ⁻ Peugeot 208 EV Average component net weight (for components in ⁻ Renault Zoe ZE focus) by vehicle segment ⁻ Jaguar I-Pace Average net weight of consolidated components in ⁻ Audi e-tron GT focus segmented by product form ⁻ Audi e-tron Average additional aluminium content per component ⁻ Porsche Taycan group ⁻ Volkswagen ID.3 (previously called Neo) ALUMINUM CONTENT FORECASTS (2025, 20282) • Total Product scope: aluminum components • By component group • 11 components groups • By forming process • 38 components in focus (see following page) • By component [1] Total market exploration for conventional/hybrid-versions only; only selected EV sample analyzed [2] 2028 forecasts are modelled based on 2025 aluminum content data and projected 2028 vehicle production using same CAGR as from 2019 to 2025 © 2019 DuckerFrontier. All rights reserved | www.duckerfrontier.com 3 ASSESSMENT SCOPE Aluminum applications are classified into 12 component groups. Within a component group, the focus has been set on select main AL components; remaining applications have been considered in the each sub-category “Other” Component Group Component Approach Component Group Component Approach Blocks Research Transmission Case Research Heads Research Differential Case Research Head Covers Research Transmission Transfer Case Research Engine Pistons Research Driveshaft Research Powertrain Mounts Research Other Transmission Modelling Oil Pans Research Complete Body Structures Research Other Engine Modelling Shock Towers Research Steering Research Rails Research Suspension Arms Research Radiator Supports Research Steering Knuckles (Front) Research Body Structure Structural Parts Research Chassis & Suspension Wheel Carriers (Rear) Research IP Structures Research Front & Rear Subframes Research Floor Group Research Other Chassis & Suspension Modelling Body Side Panels Research Wheels Research Other Body Structure Modelling Brakes Research Hoods Research External Trim Research Fenders Research Roof Rails Research Liftgates, Decklids & Tailgates Research Closures Trim & Interior Interior Trims Modelling Front & Rear Doors Research Sun roofs Modelling Roofs Research Pans & Tracks Modelling Other Closures Modelling Heat Exchangers Modelling Crash Management Bumpers & Crash Boxes Research Heat Transfer Heat Shields Modelling Battery Boxes Research Electrification Other Heat Transfer Modelling Electric Motor Housing Research © 2019 DuckerFrontier. All rights reserved | www.duckerfrontier.com 4 EUROPEAN CAR PRODUCTION Car production forecasts expect steady growth, with a CAGR of 1.54% from 2019 to 2025. The Volkswagen brand leads the European market, accounting alone for approx. 2 million cars produced in the EU28 10-year European Car Production 2016-2025 (EU 28) (Million Units) CAGR: 1.54% 18.3 18.0 17.8 17.7 17.4 17.2 17.0 16.9 16.8 16.7 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2,000 Car Production by Brand 2016-2025 (EU 28) (Thousand units) 1,500 2019 2025 1,000 500 - Source: LMCA Database Q1 2019 + Ducker Frontier estimates © 2019 DuckerFrontier. All rights reserved | www.duckerfrontier.com 5 EUROPEAN CAR PRODUCTION C-Compact vehicles (e.g. VW Golf, Ford Focus, etc.) make up the majority of the car production (43%). Segment split is expected to remain similar till 2025, though with stronger growth from B-segment and a decrease of A-segment 2019 Car Production by Segment Highest Production Programs by Segment (2019, Thousand Units) 10% 6% Range Rover Sport Audi Q7 A - BASIC 15% Audi A6 26% B - SUB-COMPACT BMW 5-Series Mercedes-Benz E-Class 16.7M C - COMPACT Volvo XC60 D - MIDSIZE VW Passat E - LARGE Mercedes-Benz GLC Audi A4 43% BMW 3-Series Peugeot 3008 VW Tiguan 2019 vs. 2025 Car Production by Segment Nissan Qashqai (Million units) Ford Focus VW Golf 1.86 1.68 2.74 Opel Corsa 2.47 Citroen C3 Dacia Duster VW Polo 7.57 Ford Fiesta 7.12 Smart Fortwo VW Up! C3 Aircross 5.09 4.33 Fiat New Panda Fiat 500 1.09 1.03 0 100 200 300 400 500 2019 2025 Source: LMCA Database Q1 2019 + Ducker Frontier estimates © 2019 DuckerFrontier. All rights reserved | www.duckerfrontier.com 6 E U R O P E A N ELECTRIC VEHICLE PRODUCTION Electric vehicle production (BEV and PHEV combined) is expected to rapidly ramp-up, with a CAGR of over 30% between 2019 and 2025 10-year EV Production (EU 28) – PHEV & BEV Units CAGR: 33.1% 3,324,607 14% 2,875,726 15% 2,407,040 21% 15% 1,969,863 21% 16% 21% 1,528,240 42% 16% 22% 1,085,810 40% 22% 19% 41% 597,420 23% 43% 383,927 46% 27% 20% 278,357 44% 19% 193,543 26% 24% 19% 26% 19% 33% 14% 38% 10% 11% 42% 35% 13% 5% 4% 4% 5% 4% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 A - Basic B - Sub-Compact C - Compact D - Midsize E - Large Source: LMCA Database Q1 2019 + Ducker Frontier estimates © 2019 DuckerFrontier. All rights reserved | www.duckerfrontier.com 7 EUROPEAN ELECTRIC VEHICLE PRODUCTION BEVs are forecasted to grow faster than PHEVs. C-segment will continue to be predominant. Smaller PHEVs will be introduced (B-segment) and C-segment to gain shares 10-year BEV Production 2016-2025 (EU 28) 10-year PHEV Production 2016-2025 (EU 28) CAGR: 42.6% CAGR: 21.4% 2,277,199 1,047,408 11% 1,946,984 928,742 20% 12% 18% 810,106 1,596,934 1,596,934 21% 747,806 18% 679,646 21% 12% 27% 21% 594,553 1,222,057 19% 23% 28% 13% 39% 25% 25% 37% 25% 848,594 21% 24% 11% 36% 326,902 24% 20% 491,257 49% 39% 201,437 40% 46% 175,724 49% 11% 27% 50% 270,518 42% 26% 51% 21% 109,310 182,490 27% 41% 48% 29% 49% 102,633 38% 84,233 17% 20% 34% 37% 17% 36% 30% 56% 55% 20% 39% 30% 59% 30% 29% 10% 9% 7% 6% 7% 6% 28% 23% 22% 4% 4% 4% 4% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 A - Basic B - Sub-Compact C - Compact D - Midsize E - Large Source: LMCA Database Q1 2019 + Ducker Frontier estimates © 2019 DuckerFrontier. All rights reserved | www.duckerfrontier.com 8 ALUMINUM CONTENT IN CARS (2019) Average Aluminum Content per Vehicle currently amounts to nearly 179kg and Total Aluminum Content for the whole car market (including electric vehicles) is estimated at 2,989 KT – most of which being aluminum castings Aluminum Content in Cars (2019) Net weight Average Al Content Total Al Content Per Vehicle 179.2 kg 2,989 KT Cast 116.0 kg 1,936 KT Sheet 34.0 kg 567 KT Extrusions* 19.0 kg 317 KT Forged 10.2 kg 169 KT * Extrusions exclude forging stock © 2019 DuckerFrontier. All rights reserved | www.duckerfrontier.com 9 ALUMINUM CONTENT IN CARS (2025) Average AL Content per Vehicle is expected to increase by approx. 20kg to 198.8kg by 2025, bringing the Total AL Content in European cars to 3,635 KT. AL casting is expected to remain the predominant forming process Aluminum Content in Cars (2025) Net weight Average Al Content Total Al Content Per Vehicle 198.8 kg 3,635 KT Cast 118.1 kg 2,161 KT Sheet 43.2 kg 789 KT Extrusions* 26.7 kg 489 KT Forged 10.7 kg 196 KT * Extrusions exclude forging stock © 2019 DuckerFrontier. All rights reserved | www.duckerfrontier.com 10 ALUMINUM CONTENT BY VEHICLE SEGMENT While E-segment vehicles have the highest Average AL Content per Vehicle (442kg), C-segment vehicles capture the largest share (36%) of Total AL demand due to the overall volume of C-segment vehicle production Total AL Content by Vehicle Segment (2019, Net Weight in KT) Average AL Content by Vehicle Segment (2019, Net Weight in kg) 442 E - LARGE; 742 A 3% B 14% E 25% D - MIDSIZE; 656 266 152 C - COMPACT; 1,085 98 77 D 22% C 36% B - SUB-COMPACT; 423 Total: 2,989 KT A - BASIC; 84 A - BASIC B - SUB- C - COMPACT D - MIDSIZE E - LARGE COMPACT Vehicle Programs with the Highest Average AL Content (Net Weight 2019) per Segment A - Basic B - Sub-Compact C - Compact D - Midsize E - Large Opel Adam Audi Q2 BMW i3 Jaguar I-Pace Audi e-tron 2019 Production: ~27K units 2019 Production: ~82K units 2019 Production: ~40K units 2019 Production: ~21K units 2019 Production: ~29K units Total AL Content 2019: 2.6 KT Total AL Content 2019: 12.5 KT Total AL Content 2019: 14.5 KT Total AL Content 2019: 15.0 KT Total AL Content 2019: 22.8 KT Avg.
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