STRATEGIC RETAIL TRANSFORMATION VENUESCORE 2014-15 UK Shopping Venue Rankings JAVELIN GROUP EXECUTIVE SUMMARY JAVELIN GROUP EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | SEPTEMBER 2014 | VENUESCORE 2014-15 | PAGE 02 | CONTENTS Contents 1 Introduction 03 2 Methodology 05 3 Findings 09 Location Grades 09 Top Shopping Venues 10 Major Movers 11 Top 20 Shopping Centres 12 Top Retail Parks 13 Top Factory Outlet Centres 14 Dominant City Centres 15 Malls vs. High Streets 16 London Focus 17 Market Position 18 Fashion Position 20 Age Position 21 Regional Analysis 22 Illustrative VENUESCORE 2014-15 Tables 24 VENUESCORE 2014-15: Order Form 26 About Javelin Group 27 Javelin Group | 200 Aldersgate Street, London EC1A 4HD | +44 (0)20 7961 3200 | www.javelingroup.com JAVELIN GROUP EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | SEPTEMBER 2014 | VENUESCORE 2014-15 | PAGE 03 | CHAPTER ONE | INTRODUCTION 1 Introduction VENUESCORE 2014-15 provides retailers, brands, developers and owners with an up-to-date straightforward tool for understanding some of the key differences between shopping venues across the UK such as scale of offer, market positioning, fashionability and age positioning. VENUESCORE is one of a series of proprietary location insight datasets created by Javelin Group to help clients (leading retailers, brands, local authorities, private equity, shopping centre owners and investors) to understand the full potential of their retail property assets and to shape them in response to the structural changes that are delivering a seismic shift to the UK’s retail landscape. VENUESCORE™ is Javelin Group’s annual ranking of the UK’s top 3,000+ retail venues (including town centres, stand-alone malls, retail warehouse parks, travel hubs and factory outlet centres). Javelin Group | 200 Aldersgate Street, London EC1A 4HD | +44 (0)20 7961 3200 | www.javelingroup.com JAVELIN GROUP EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | SEPTEMBER 2014 | VENUESCORE 2014-15 | PAGE 04 | CHAPTER ONE | INTRODUCTION For retailers and brands trading nationally, and across a range of different location types, the development of an effective “shape of chain” strategy requires the segmentation of the store estate so that the performance of outlets trading in venues of similar retail status can be better understood, and potential new store opportunities can be benchmarked in this context. For shopping centre developers and investors, an understanding of the retail hierarchy in an area, overlaid with consumer spending dynamics, helps to highlight opportunities for new development and/or tenant requirements for existing schemes. For private equity investors, a clear vision of the UK retail landscape can help evaluate the deliverability of roll-out plans and store performance assumptions presented as part of investment theses. For local authorities, a clear understanding of the hierarchy of retail venues within the area can help to determine trends in multiple occupancy, establish strategic priorities for future investment and provide the core input for area benchmarking studies and capacity assessments. Javelin Group | 200 Aldersgate Street, London EC1A 4HD | +44 (0)20 7961 3200 | www.javelingroup.com JAVELIN GROUP EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | SEPTEMBER 2014 | VENUESCORE 2014-15 | PAGE 05 | CHAPTER TWO | METHODOLOGY 2 Methodology The retail offer of each shopping venue in the VENUESCORE 2014-15 is a dataset UK is evaluated using a straightforward and comprising 1,916 transparent scoring system, reflecting their individual multiple relative consumer appeal. retailer fascias trading nationwide Retailer Scoring in April 2014 from over 110,000 stores VENUESCORE 2014-15 evaluates each venue in terms of its provision of multiple (using raw data retailers including anchor stores, fashion operators, and non-fashion multiples. supplied by Retail The sectors include Foodservice, which in recent years has become increasingly Locations). integrated in helping to define and differentiate successful retail offers, as well as all comparison and convenience-based product sectors. The score attached to each operator is weighted to reflect its overall impact on shopping patterns. For example, anchor stores such as John Lewis and Marks & Spencer receive a higher score than unit stores. The resulting aggregate score for each venue is called its VENUESCORE. (Please see table on page 06.) Venue Definitions Venue definitions have been fully updated in VENUESCORE 2014-15, reflecting the evolving status and extent of the UK’s commercial centres. The area defined for each retail venue uses a common-sense approach which describes the retail offer as a single venue where there is a concentration of stores that shoppers would consider as part of the same “walkable” shopping offer. Example 1: In central Glasgow, Argyle Street and Sauciehall Street are both allocated to one venue (Glasgow, Centre) despite being some distance apart. This is because (a) a proportion of shoppers visit both extremes of the retail offer as part of one shopping trip and (b) the retail offer is relatively unbroken from one end of Sauciehall Street right through to the far end of Trongate. Javelin Group | 200 Aldersgate Street, London EC1A 4HD | +44 (0)20 7961 3200 | www.javelingroup.com JAVELIN GROUP EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | SEPTEMBER 2014 | VENUESCORE 2014-15 | PAGE 06 | CHAPTER TWO | METHODOLOGY Example 2: In central Cambridge, the area around the Grafton Centre shopping Venues are defined mall is defined as a distinct retail venue separate from Cambridge, Centre (which using a common- comprises Grand Arcade, Lion Yard, Petty Cury etc.) Although offers are located in sense approach, the centre of Cambridge, the retail offer is not continuous from one area to the which describes other and shoppers will generally shop in one area or the other as part of one the retail offer shopping trip. If they shop in both they generally travel from one to the other either by car or public transport. as a single venue where there is a Example 3: In Warrington, the town centre offer (including the Golden Square concentration of shopping centre) and the Cockhedge Retail Park is allocated to the same retail venue stores that shoppers (Warrington, Centre) – although it is then also possible to assess Cockhedge Retail would consider as Warrington, Centre Park as a distinct zone within the venue. part of the same walkable shopping Exceptions: In London, the retail offer of the West End (e.g. Oxford Street, Regent offer. Street, Covent Garden, Bond Street, Carnaby Street etc.) is broken down into constituent offers for the purposes of venue ranking – although London, West End, London, Midtown and London, City can also be assessed as aggregates of their constituent retail venues. Classification Illustrative Example Retailers VENUESCORE Premier Department Store Harrods, Selfridges (London) 50 Major Department Stores Harvey Nichols, John Lewis 30 Premier Variety Stores Marks & Spencer 15 Hypermarkets Tesco Extra, Asda Supercentre 10 Department Stores House of Fraser, Debenhams 10 Supermarkets Asda, Morrisons, Sainsbury’s, Waitrose 8 Variety Stores Bhs, Dunnes 5 Small Department Stores Desire 4 Destination Speciality B&Q, Decathlon 3 Clothing Destination TK Maxx, Abercrombie & Fitch 3 Multiple Clothing Retailers H&M, River Island, New Look 2 Other Goods Destination Halfords, Hobbycraft, Staples 2 Other Multiple Retailers 99p Stores, Carphone Warehouse, Clarks 1 Source: Javelin Group (VENUESCORE 2014-15) Javelin Group | 200 Aldersgate Street, London EC1A 4HD | +44 (0)20 7961 3200 | www.javelingroup.com JAVELIN GROUP EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | SEPTEMBER 2014 | VENUESCORE 2014-15 | PAGE 07 | CHAPTER TWO | METHODOLOGY Venue Scoring The VENUESCORE for each location is created by combining the retailer scoring matrix (described above) with the venue’s area definition, and therefore reflects the presence and importance of the multiple retailers trading in each venue. The resulting VENUESCORE rankings generally correlate closely with the actual market sizes of these shopping venues (in terms of consumer spending), however, there are some notable exceptions. For example, the mega-malls such as Trafford Centre, Bluewater and Meadowhall tend to generate spending levels that are well in excess of their relative VENUESCORE. The same is true of several London venues, including Oxford Street and the two Westfield schemes, which are the most notable outliers to this rule. London city centre venues are defined as distinct aggregate venues, for example, London, West End comprises Oxford Street, Regent Street, Covent Garden etc., London, Midtown comprises Holborn, Clerkenwell, Finsbury etc. and London, City comprise Bank, Moorgate, Liverpool Street etc. in order to reflect more accurately their true status as powerful city centre offers in their own right. (We also provide detailed analysis of London which breaks these key areas back out into their constituent parts.) Javelin Group | 200 Aldersgate Street, London EC1A 4HD | +44 (0)20 7961 3200 | www.javelingroup.com JAVELIN GROUP EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | SEPTEMBER 2014 | VENUESCORE 2014-15 | PAGE 08 | CHAPTER TWO | METHODOLOGY Venue Attributes In addition to its VENUESCORE, each venue is assessed in terms of a range of other attributes, including: • Market positioning (Is the offer aspirational or down-market?) • Age focus (Is the offer targeting younger or older consumers?) • Fashion focus (How dominant is the venue’s clothing offer?) • Fashionability of its offer (Is the clothing offer traditional or progressive?) • Foodservice bias (How strong is the food and beverage offer?) • Comparison vs. convenience bias