Population Profile of Arusha Region
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ANT K T Population Profile of Arusha Region. REPORT PREPARED FOR Regional Development Directorate, Arusha Regional Commissioner's Office Arusha Region P. 0. Box 3050 ARUSHA January 1980 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page List of Tables . iii List of Figures . • • • . ..6 .v List of Appendices ... • • . vi Preface . .e.i.. vi I. Introduction: Demographic Information . .. 1 Population Censuses . Surveys . * 0 0 * 6 2 II. Population Size and Growth . .. 3 III. Population Distribution . 0 0 0 *. 7 IV. Components of Population Change . 19 Fertility . 19 Mortality . 21 Rate of Natural Increase . 22 iaration . 24 V. Population Projections . .. • • . a 28 VI. Age-Sex Composition . ... 60 VII. Population Characteristics . 61 VIII. Ethnic Characteristics . 0 a * * 0 0 62 IX. Population Policy . .65 X. Demoeraphic Implications of the Development Approach Adopted by the Arusha Plannina/Village Development Project . 69 References . a * *. * a*. e* o * * 75 Appendices . a * a a a* * a a * * * * a 77 LIST OF TABLES Pa e 1. krusha regional ind District Pouilqtion 'rowth, 1948-1978 4 Arusha Regional an District Population q-fovrth 1967-1978, ?oulJ.-tion Density and aextio .... .. 5 3. "Jr:an-Pura! Ponulition Distribution of Arusha e!ion and Districts, 1978 .... ..... ................. *...... ..... 11 4. Percentage Distribution of Vill-,es by ize -nd -Districts, 1978 k'usha '"e-4on o~oo~so odo m f. .0 6001 5. Registration of 'Tilapes in Arusha -egion and Districts qs of December 5, 1979 *0............ 0... ........ ........ ... 13 6. Arusha -egion and District rousehold Totals from the 1978 Census 14 7. nional -o ultions ?s a Proportion of Tanzania Povulation the Uationa1'_-in1.nd at the 1978 Census .000000090.00000 15 8. ?orul-ation Distribution by road A~e Gro',is and Sex in Tanzania and in Arusha 7eqion and Districts (1978) ....... 16 9. D'itrioution of sex ratio by age in 19078 .. e.... 1r'isha epion by istricts, . .. .. .. .. 17 10. Arusha eonal ,?nd District 1978 P6ulation Census 'ureau 11. ?ertility Differentials by D)istrict, Arusha eqion, 1978 ... 20 12. Parameters U-ed for the Population Projections for Arusha Reg-ion from 1980 to 1995 ....... ..... 36 13. Porul-l.tion Projections for -,istricts and Arusha. 'epion, 178-2000 37 14. 7op'ultion Frojection for Irsha Region, 1980 . 39 1. 1Foultion YF~ojection for .1r'.sha ?.eglon, 1985 40 15. ?o-ri'ition Projection for '.rusha ?eg.on, . 41 I7. ?oviltion 'ojection for 'rusha ?ea-on, 1995 42 1('2. Fojii1tion -Brojction 'fOr 'cndili -istrict, 198C - 1995 ......... 47 19. onulation rojection for er'orct,s irs 19F 1905 .......... 0 4 20. Porul-tion Prcj-ct.on for IFiteto District, 1920 - 1995 4......... 9 21. ?cu-rticn Frojection for Hian: District, 1980 - 1995 o......... 50 22. ?o-u.-tion Projection 'or .roIulu ',istrict, 19C - 1P95 ........... 51 iii List of Tables continued Page 23. 'ovul.tion ?rojection for Ngorongoro District, 1980 - 1995 ......... 52 24. ?oolultion Projection for Arusha Tom, 1980 - 1995 ................. 53 25. Cbserved -,ates of 'roith for Towns in Tanzania, !967 - 1978 ........ 54 26. Toulul tion Projection for Arisha District, 19FC - 1995 ............. 55 27. Prorortion (Per Cent) in Age 'roups in Irusha legion 1975 - 2000 56 28. Proportion (Fer Cent) Femle by Iqe '"rolin for Arusha legion 1.975 - 2000 57 2?. Prejected Total -onulation (Both Sexes) and A,7e Pronortions for Tanzania, 19P0 - 2000 ................................ ...... 58 30. Parameters Ucsed for United Nations Projections............ 59 iv LIST OF FIGURES Page 1. Tanzania Interregional Migration Streams . 25 2. Total Population Growth, Arusha Region . 38 3. Population Pyramid, Arusha Region 1980 . 43 4. Population Pyramid, Arusha Region 1985 . 44 5. Population Pyramid, Arusha Region 190 . 45 6. Population Pyramid, Arusha Region 1995 . 46 v LIST OF APPENDICES Page A. Population Projections - Methodology . 78 B. Population Projections and Planning . 92 C. 1978 Population of Villages . • • • a . 101 Arusha Region Arumeru District Arusha District Hanang District Kiteto District Mbulu District Monduli District Ngorongoro District D. 1978 Population Distribution in Districts in Arusha Region by Division, Ward, and Village . 120 Arumeru District Arusha District Hanang District Kiteto District Mbulu District Monduli District Ngorongoro District E. 1978 Population of Villages in AP/VDP Pilot Wards by age groups and sex . • • . •. ...... 129 Arumeru District Hanang District Mbulu District F. 1978 Census Mapping Operation . .. 135 G. Maps . • 0. *. 0. .. 138 Tanzania Mainland Distribution of Service Centres Tanzania: Life Expectance by Regions 1973 Tanzania: Total Fertility Rates by Regions 1073 African Countries African Countries: Births per 1000 population African Countries: 1975 Deaths per ]000 Pooulation 1975 vi PREFACE This report on the population of Arusha Region has been prepared for the Arusha Regional Development Directorate by the Arusha Planning and Village Development Project. The major objec tive of the report is to assemble a demographic profile of Arusha Region to be used in planning for the long term development of the Regioni The Arusha Planning and Village Development Project, funded by USAID, was begun in 1979 and combines the regional planning process with the simultaneous development and implementation of village income generating and related development projects. This report on population is one of the first steps in assembling the background information required for the preparation of the Region's Long Term Development Plan. The population profile of Arusha Region was prepared using three primary sources of demographic information: the 1967 Census, the 1973 National Demographic Survey, and the 1978 Census. The 1978 census figures are the most important source of information for planners, and there is an immediate need to make these avail able. Therefore three sets of figures have been included as appen dices to the report: 1978 vil.lage population figures for all vil laaes in Arusha Region, District summaries, and population break downs by age group and sex for the APVDP pilot wards. This infor mation will eventually be published by the Central Bureau of Statis tics, but there may be a delay of a few years. It is recommended that the regiona! authorities press for early release of the data and for early analysis of the data from the detailed questionnaire as this will provide the most accurate source of demographic data for planning. The data required to make reasonable population projections has also been assembled and a series of popul.ation projections have been made for Arusha Region and for each of the districts by age groups for five year intervals from 1980-1995. Additional projec tions for Arusha town and Arusha District were carried out using a range of assumed rates of growth. The methodology used to carry out these projections is des cribed in Appendix A. Briefly, the base population of each ;,rojec tion was the recorded pooulation from the l978 Census. The :rate of natural increase was based on estimates of fertility and mortal ity provided for Arusha Region by the 1973 National Demographic Survey. The projections are based on this assumed rate of natural increa- e and do not include any estimates for miration. Ponulation projections for the various Peosraphic units are an essential part of the planning process. The material from the above paper on pooulation projection methodology hrs thus been pi sented in 9 very simplified form in a working paper on Ponula tion Pro,ection and Plannin- included as Apendix B. This paper is intended for use bv planning official- and would be suitable vii viii for use in a plannina workshop if hand calculators could be made available to the participants, The methodology described in the paper should allow planners to carry out whatever population pro jections are needed at the district, ward or village levels. The oaoer also emphasizes the fact that the planner must adjust each of the projections for migration based on his knowledge of the present and likely future migration trends in the area he is con siderina. The final sections of this report review the polici.es -- the Government of Tanzania on the various aspects of population growth and movement and the demographic implications of the development anDroach adopted by the Arusha Planning and Village Development Project. This renort was prepared during a period of six weeks in November and December 1979. It should be considered an initial attempt to assemble the population data available for plannina in Arusha Region. The colection of accurate population data is essential both for land use planning at the village and ward levels and for long term development planning at the District and Regional levels. The village structure in Tanzania could provide an ex cellent system for ongoing data collection for regular up-dating of the census figures for use in planning and it is strongly re commended that the Regional Planning Office work to develop such a system. I woul.d like to thank all of the members of the Regional Planning Office and of the Arusha Planning and Village Development Project for their assistance in preparing this report. Alan Johnston January 1980 Introduction: Demogranhic Information Tanzania has a long tradition of demographic which data collection has Drovided a fairly accurate record of the country's compnonents of population change. The high priority that has been given to recent demographic data collection important efforts is an aspect of the government's policy of "participatory socialism" which requires accurate population purposes data for planning at every level of administration down to the smallest planning unit, the village. One essential prerequisite successful decentralized to olanning is access to and knowledge of how to use data, including population data,at all asoects every level. Nearly of rural development are related to population size, composition and spatial distribution. From district the divisional and to the regional levels planners need to know such facts in detail as the demand for education (e.g. the school age population) , health services and food and (e.g'.