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Pspp) Fy 2018 Busuanga Island Electric Cooperative, Inc. (BISELCO) Mabintangen Road, Brgy. Pob. 6, Coron, Palawan POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN (PSPP) FY 2018 An Integral Part of BISELCO’s Distribution Development Plan (DDP) TABLE OF CONTENTS Contents Introduction ________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 Energy and Demand Forecast _____________________________________________________________________________ 3 Energy Demand and Forecast _____________________________________________________________________________ 4 LOAD PROFILE AND LOAD DURATION CURVE __________________________________________________________ 6 EXISTING POWER SUPPLY CONTRACTS _________________________________________________________________ 9 SUPPLY VS DEMAND ______________________________________________________________________________________ 11 DISTRIBUTION IMPACT STUDY__________________________________________________________________________ 12 SCHEDULE OF CSP ________________________________________________________________________________________ 13 TIMELINE OF CSP _________________________________________________________________________________________ 14 INTRODUCTION Introduction DU PROFILE BISELCO Franchise covers the entire Calamian Group of Islands located on the northern Palawan. The Calamian Group of Islands, also called the Calamianes, consist of over 80 islands and islets located 200 nautical miles southwest of Manila. Figure below shows the franchise map of BISELCO. Energized areas are indicated by yellow color, they are connected to BISELCO’s grid, while green indicates areas currently unenergized (mostly islands). Busuanga Island is the largest island in the Calamian Group. Within the island are two neighboring municipalities namely Coron and Busuanga. Coron is the major energy sales generating area on the three islands. Busuanga Island covers two municipalities namely Coron and Busuanga. Page 1 INTRODUCTION The other two Islands are Culion and Linapacan Islands. Culion Island is two hours by pumpboat while Linapacan Island is five hours. Coron town is the commercial business and transportation center on the Calamianes Group where rapid commercialization is going on with the increasing volume of tourists flocking each year especially during summer. OPERATION AND PERFORMANCE BISELCO is composed of six districts represented by six board of directors and a General Manager with sixty two employees. There are four areas on which each has its own sub-offices namely: Busuanga, Culion, San Miguel and Nangalao. It was classified as Medium Electric Cooperative and was categorized by NEA as AAA electric cooperative last 2017 due to its satisfactory performance indicated by the following: System’s Loss : 11% Collection Efficiency : 100% Reliability : SAIFI – 28.49 SAIDI – 779.65 CUSTOMER COUNTS AND LEVEL OF ENERGIZATION MUNICIPALITIES BARANGAYS SITIOS CONNECTIONS ENERGIZED/ ENERGIZED/ SERVED COVERAGE/ % POTENTIAL COMPLETED % UNENERGIZED POTENTIAL COMPLETED % POTENTIAL % ENERGIZED TO DATE TO DATE TO DATE 4 100 61 61 100 0 127 120 94 23,900 15,717 66 Among sixty-one barangays covered by BISELCO sixteen are still unenergized mostly island barangays. With the implementation of DOE’s PV mainstreaming, three thousand seven hundred eleven households mostly on these island barangays are schedule to be energized this year 2018. Page 2 ENERGY AND DEMAND FORECAST Energy and Demand Forecast 10 YEAR HISTORICAL Since Busuanga/Coron is the largest island grid within the franchise area of BISELCO, it is the main contributor in terms of sales revenue. During the time when NPC-SPUG is the power supplier, electricity demand and consumption is suppressed because of power curtailments due to aging plant assets and fuel supply delivery issues. When BISELCO finally succeeded on the conduct of Competitive Selection Process (CSP) which established it selected New Power Provider (NPP), the Calamian Islands Power Corporation on 2014; growth on demand and energy consumption became abrupt due to fast growing tourism activities in the island driven by stable power supply. There was also increase in energy consumption in the island of Culion when the NPC_SPUG started to increase its operating hours for twelve (12) to 24 hours on the year 2015. Meanwhile, there is no significant energy consumption growth in the island of Linapacan since the number of operating hours in still twelve hours up to this date. 10-YEARS HISTORICAL 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Energy Purchased 6,515 8,100 9,531 9,668 10,889 12,088 14,954 20,169 24,135 29,855 (Mwhr) Energy Sales 5,670 7,099 8,415 8,585 9,747 10,680 13,147 17,539 21,517 26,573 (Mwhr) System's Loss 845 1,001 1,116 1,082 1,142 1,407 1,807 2,631 2,618 3,282 (Mwhr) 10-YEARS FORECAST 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Energy Purchased 35,147 38,855 44,848 49,042 53,804 58,607 63,795 69,385 75,387 81,813 (Mwhr) Energy Sales 31,703 35,276 40,812 44,678 49,069 53,508 58,309 63,487 69,055 75,023 (Mwhr) BISELCO considered an aggressive forecast on its projection on energy consumption due to increasing commercial viability of area manifested by continuous construction of hotel buildings specially in the island of Busuanga. Page 3 ENERGY DEMAND AND FORECAST Energy Demand and Forecast PEAK DEMAND 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 BUSUANGA/ 6.567 7.053 8.154 8.922 9.793 10.674 11.627 12.654 13.758 14.941 CORON (MW) CULION (MW) 0.527 0.553 0.585 0.625 0.673 0.730 0.797 0.876 0.966 1.068 LINAPACAN (MW) 0.160 0.174 0.188 0.202 0.216 0.229 0.243 0.256 0.269 0.283 TOTAL 7.254 7.780 8.928 9.749 10.682 11.633 12.667 13.785 14.993 16.292 BUSUANGA/ CORON PEAK DEMAND (MW) 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 Peak Demand Peak (MW) 2 0 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 Year Page 4 ENERGY DEMAND AND FORECAST CULION PEAK DEMAND (MW) 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 Peak Demand Peak (MW) 0.20 0.00 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 Year LINAPACANPEAK DEMAND (MW) 0.300 0.250 0.200 0.150 0.100 Peak Demand Peak (MW) 0.050 - 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 Year FORECAST METHODOLOGY AND RESULT BISELCO preferred to use Regression Analysis on its forecasting methodology. There were up to 130 polynomial equations used and among these models that passed the validity and accuracy tests, the best and most realistic model was chosen. Because each Island Grid has different economic growth, forecast was done separately for each of the islands. Page 5 LOAD PROFILE AND LOAD DURATION CURVE DURATION AND LOAD PROFILE LOAD AND LOA PROFILE LOAD Page Page BUSUANGA/CORON 6 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 - - 0100H 1 (MW) Curve Duration Load Busuanga/Coron 2017 1600H PROFILE BUSUANGA/CORONLOAD (MW) 2017 463 0700H 925 2200H 1387 1300H 0400H 1849 2311 1900H 1000H 2773 0100H 3235 1600H 3697 0700H 4159 2200H 4621 1300H 5083 0400H 5545 1900H 6007 1000H 0100H 6469 CURVE D DURATION 1600H 6931 0700H 7393 2200H 7855 1300H 8317 0400H 1900H 1000H LOAD (MW) 0100H 1600H 0700H 2200H 1300H LOAD PROFILE AND AND LOA PROFILE LOAD Page Page CULION LINAP & 7 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 - - 1 0100H 326 1600H 0700H 651 2200H 976 1300H ACAN 1301 0400H 1626 1900H 1000H 1951 (MW) Curve Duration Load Culion 2017 2276 0100H 2601 1600H (MW) Profile Load Culion 2017 2926 0700H 2200H 3251 1300H 3576 0400H 3901 1900H 4226 1000H 4551 0100H D DURATION CURVE D DURATION 4876 1600H 5201 0700H 5526 2200H 1300H 5851 0400H 6176 1900H 6501 1000H 6826 0100H 7151 1600H 7476 0700H 7801 2200H 8126 1300H 0400H 8451 1900H 1000H 0100H LOAD (MW) 1600H 0700H 2200H 1300H 0400H LOAD PROFILE AND AND LOA PROFILE LOAD Page Page municipalities. transformer into an aggressive when a bemuch probably most be will reliable trend growth load the that power possibility big a is there supply that believes BISELCO is already However, e requirements Renewable Energy Corporation (CREC), BISELCO With the pending application for 8 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 - - 1 0100H 326 2200H for for the island of Culion 1900H 651 2017 San Miguel Linapacan Load Duration Curve (MW) Curve San Duration Linapacan Load 2017Miguel 1600H 976 1300H 2017 San Miguel Linapacan Load Profile (MW) Profile Load Linapacan San Miguel 2017 1301 1000H 1626 0700H 1951 0400H 2276 0100H 2601 2200H 1900H 20 2926 1600H - 3251 and and Linapacan will be sufficient during the entire term of the PSA. year term 3576 1300H 3901 1000H 0700H 4226 0400H 4551 LOAD (MW) Power Power Supply Agreement between BISELCO and Culna 0100H D DURATION CURVE D DURATION 4876 2200H for for now assumes 5201 1900H 5526 1600H 5851 1300H 6176 1000H 6501 0700H 6826 0400H 7151 0100H 2200H that the baseload and peaking 7476 1900H 7801 1600H 8126 1300H stablished stablished on these two 8451 1000H 0700H 0400H LOAD (MW) 0100H 2200H 1900H 1600H 1300H EXISTING POWER SUPPLY CONTRACTS EXISTING POWER SUPPLY CONTRACTS SUMMARY OF EXISITNG CONTRACT AND DETAILS Contracte Utility- Net Plant PSA PSA Contracted Base / Mid- Embedded/ Installed Capacity d owned/ Fuel Dependabl Supply Contracted Owner/ Effectivity Expiration Energy, merit / Grid Status Capacity Factor Capacity, NPC/ IPP/ Type e Capacity Operator (MM/YR) (MM/YR) MWH Peaking Connected (MW) MW NPC-IPP (MW) Base/ Grid Coron Power Station CIPC 0.85 20-Aug-14 20-Aug-29 6.334 NPP OPERATIONAL HFO 8.12 6.334 Peaking Connected Grid Busuanga Power Station CIPC 0.85 8-Dec-13 8-Dec-28 0.608 Peaking NPP OPERATIONAL LFO 0.7 0.608 Connected Base/ Grid Culion Diesel Power Plant NPC-SPUG 25-Dec-18 25-Dec-21 693 3,189 NPC OPERATIONAL LFO 0.63 Peaking Connected Base/ Grid Linapacan Diesel Power Plant NPC-SPUG 25-Dec-18 25-Dec-21 174 617 NPC OPERATIONAL LFO Peaking Connected BISELCO-CIPC PSA After several Competitive Selection Process transactions and extensive negotiations, BISELCO and CIPC entered a fifteen (15) – year PSA on August 8, 2011 as amended on December 20, 2011.
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