Martin Wight

APPENDIX 1

Martin Wight

Figure A1.1 Martin Wight in 1961. APPENDIX 2

“Fortune’s Banter” Figure A2.1 A s a m p l e p a g e . Notes

Introduction Understanding Fortune and Irony 1 . F r i e d r i c h A . H a y e k , The Counter Revolution of Science. Studies on the Abuse of Reason (New York: Macmillan, 1964), p. 25. 2 . D e n n i s H . W r o n g , Power. Its Forms, Bases, and Uses , 5th printing (New Brunswick, NJ: Transactions, 2009), p. 2. Besides the inevitable, col- lateral, unintended, and/or unforeseen effects, power produces a particular kind of intended and foreseen effect: it modifies others’ behavior obtaining the desired result; cf. Angelo Panebianco, Il Potere, lo Stato, la Libertà (Bologna: Il Mulino, 2004), p. 39. 3 . Robert K. Merton, “The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action,” American Sociological Review 1, no. 6 (1936): 894. In his Social Theory and Social Structure (Glencoe: Free Press, 1957), p. 68, Merton indicates the study of the unintended consequences of social action as one of the major tasks of the social sciences. Raymond Boudon’s The Unintended Consequences of Social Action (London: Macmillan, 1982) is devoted to this task. On this epistemological connection, see Ray Pawson, “On the Shoulders of Merton: Boudon as the Modern Guardian of Middle-Range Theory,” in Mohamed Cherkaoui and Peter Hamilton, eds., Raymond Boudon: A Life in Sociology, 4 vols. (Oxford, UK: Bardwell, 2009), 4:317–34. Reviewing Boudon’s volume in Social Forces 63, no. 2 (1984): 613, Eric Leifer noted, “This English version of Boudon’s original 1977 book is of uneven quality.” I will use the original one. 4 . Edward H. Carr, What Is History? (London: Macmillan, 1961), p. 46. 5. Martin Wight, “Necessity and Chance in International Relations,” Papers of Martin Wight, file 3, undated sketch. The Papers of Martin Wight (hereafter referred to as MWP and reference number) are located at the British Library of Political and Economic Sciences, London. 6. Needless to say, similar problems have been investigated in many fields of study. For instance, Boudon thought that the main purpose of sociology must be the causal explanation of enigmatic social phenomena. He was determinate in showing how actions and interactions at the micro-level 120 ● Notes

can produce aggregated outcomes at the macro-level that nobody expects or wishes, or “perverse effects”; cf. Raymond Boudon, Effets Perverse et Ordre Social (Paris: Puf, 1977). 7 . Martin Wight, “Obliquities of Causation,” undated sketch, MWP 3. 8 . Of course, at a more complex level there are “microfoundations” of politics, which lie behind political decisions; cf. Angelo Panebianco, L’Automa e lo Spirito. Azioni Individuali, Istituzioni , Imprese Collettive (Bologna: Il Mulino, 2009). 9 . Martin Wight, “War and International Politics,” The Listener, October 13, 1955, p. 584, transmitted on BBC Third program on October 6, 1955, at 8:45. See The Times , same date, p. 4. Cf. Martin Wight, Power Politics , ed. Hedley Bull and Carsten Holbraad (Leicester: Leicester University Press, 1978), p. 136. 1 0 . W i g h t , “ W a r a n d I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s ” , p . 5 8 4 . 11 . Cf. Garret Hardin, “The Tragedy of the Commons,” Science 162, no. 3859 (1968): 1243. 12 . Martin Wight, “History and the Study of International Relations,” MWP 112, p. 3. 1 3 . H e d l e y B u l l , The Anarchical Society. A Study of Order in World Politics , 2nd ed. (Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1995), p. 308. 14 . Michael Howard, “Lost Friend,” in Coral Bell and Meredith Thatcher, eds., Remembering Hedley (Canberra: ANU E Press, 2008), p. 128. 1 5 . B u l l , Anarchical Society , p. 308. 16 . Hedley Bull, “What Is the Commonwealth?,” World Politics 11, no. 4 (1959): 587. 1 7 . I b i d . , p . 5 8 7 . 18 . David Collingridge and Colin Reeve, Science Speaks to Power: The Role of Experts in Policy Making (London: Frances Pinter, 1986), p. 32, emphasis added. “Scientism is not scientific method in politics; it is an idealistic attempt to overcome the limitations and uncertainties of politics through an analogy that confuses the genesis, the verification and the application of the theories of the natural sciences”; Bernard Crick, The American Science of Politics. Its Origins and Conditions (Berkley: University of California Press, 1964), p. 224. 19. Obviously, “to see before” means different things for different persons. For someone, it seems to be “the attempt to apply a theory to limn the future” because “prediction is one test of a theory.” For someone else, a good theory of politics “furnishes a model in which future observa- tions and consequences of actions in the outside world can be predicted.” Others think that “theories can also help policy makers anticipate events”; see, respectively, Kenneth Waltz, “International Politics, Viewed from the Ground,” International Security 19, no. 1 (1994): 199; Karl W. Deutsch, “On Political Theory and Political Action,” American Political Science Review 65, no. 1 (1971): 65; and Stephen Walt, “The Relationship Notes ● 121

between Theory and Policy in International Relations,” Annual Review of Political Science 8 (2005): 31. 20 . For a defense of the scientific study of the future, originally elaborated in 1964, see Bertrand de Jouvenel, The Art of Conjuncture , trans. Nikita Lary (Piscataway: Transaction Publisher, 2012). 2 1 . B u l l , Anarchical Society , p. 308. 2 2 . M a r t i n W i g h t , “ C h r i s t i a n P o l i t i c s , ” MWP 52, p. 4a. This manuscript seems to have been written several years after “Fortune’s Banter,” not before 1968.

1 Wight’s Intent: Text, Context, and Method 1 . A r i s t o t l e , Poetics , trans. William H. Fyfe (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1932), 1452a.20. 2 . Ecclesiastes , 9:11, KJ21. 3 . “ D e a t h s , ” The Times, July 17, 1972, p. 22. 4 . This is Christopher Hill’s eloquent appraisal in his “History and International Relations,” in Steve Smith, ed., International Relations: British and American Perspective (Oxford, UK: Blackwell, 1985), p. 130. To my knowledge, only two monographs, both derived from doctoral dissertations, have so far been written on this thinker: Ian Hall, The International Thought of Martin Wight (New York: Palgrave, 2006) and Michele Chiaruzzi, Politica di Potenza nell’Et à del Leviatano. La Teoria Internazionale di Martin Wight (Bologna: Il Mulino, 2008). 5 . Raymond Aron, M é moires (Paris: Julliard, 1983), p. 456. 6 . Ibid. From the incomplete and abridged English edition, this passage was cut out, as many others, including the lines on Carl Schmitt’s letter to Aron and Golo Mann’s review in Die Zeit ; cf. Raymond Aron, Memoirs , trans. George Holoch (New York: Holmes & Meier, 1990), pp. 301–3. Perhaps another publisher will someday have more respect for the integrity of Aron’s life. 7 . Martin Wight, “Tract for the Nuclear Age,” The Observer , April 23, 1967, p. 30. The argument is that the political classics have been the fruit of meditation in times of political crisis yet the age of the World Wars did not bear such fruit, until Aron, we may add today. 8 . Butterfield to Wight, December 22, 1958, MWP 248. 9 . H e d l e y B u l l , The Anarchical Society. A Study of Order in World Politics , 2nd ed. (Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1995), p. xiii. 10 . Richard Devetak, “Introduction,” in Michele Chiaruzzi, “The Three Traditions in History: A Dialogic Text,” Global Change, Peace & Security 22, no. 1 (2010): 122. 11 . Report of the discussion of the British Committee, September 1959; quoted in Brunello Vigezzi, The British Committee on the Theory of 122 ● Notes

International Politics (1954–1985): The Rediscovery of History , trans. Ian Harvey (Milan: Edizioni Unicopli, 2005), p. 48. 1 2 . R o g e r E p p , r e v i e w o f International Theory by M. Wight, International Journal 48, no. 3 (1993): 561. 13 . Quoted in Hedley Bull, “Introduction: Martin Wight and the Study of International Relations,” in Martin Wight, Systems of States , ed. Hedley Bull (London: Leicester University Press, 1977), p. 15. 14 . Karl von Clausewitz, On War , ed. Michael Howard and Peter Paret (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1984), p. 86. 1 5 . A r n a l d o M o m i g l i a n o , Storia e Storiografia Antica (Bologna: Il Mulino, 1987), p. 21. For a slightly different translation and the whole text in English, see the appendix in Daniel R. Schwarz, Reading the First Century. On Reading Josephus and Studying Jewish History of the First Century (T ü bingen: Mohr Siebeck, 2013), pp. 182–9. 1 6 . H a n s - G e o r g G a d a m e r , Truth and Method (London: Bloomsbury, 2004), p. 474. 1 7 . F r i e d r i c h N i e t z s c h e , Dawn: Thoughts on the Presumptions of Morality , trans. Brittain Smith (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2011), pp. 6–7. But there is, in contrast, a fragility of words: “Words strain, crack and sometimes break, under the burden / Under the tension, slip, slide, perish / Decay with imprecision, will not stay in place / Will not stay still”; Thomas S. Eliot, “Burnt Norton,” in his Four Quartets (New York: Harcourt, Brace, 1943), section 5, lines 13–16, pp. 7–8. 1 8 . N i e t z s c h e , Dawn , p. 7. 19 . Needless to say, there are completely different ways to investigate complexity in political studies. For example, Robert Jervis, System Effects. Complexity in Political and Social Life (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1997). Awareness of system effects can help to understand how the human ideational element inserts uncertainty and unpre- dictability in social life, giving to political prediction the unmanageable format of an unanswerable question. 2 0 . N o r b e r t o B o b b i o , Thomas Hobbes and the Natural Law Tradition, trans. Daniela Gobetti (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1993), p. xi. 2 1 . M a r t i n W i g h t , Four Seminal Thinkers in International Theory. Machiavelli, Grotius, Kant & Mazzini , ed. Gabriele Wight and Brian Porter (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005), p. 22. According to Gabriele Wight and Brian Porter, these lectures had been composed at the London School of Economics and Political Science in 1959–60. If this is correct, they are practically coeval with “Fortune’s Banter.” 22 . Martin Wight, “Some Reflections on the Historic Antichrist,” undated paper, MWP 43, pp. 1–39. There is a correspondence with Alec Vidler, historian and theologian, dated June 13, 1942. Vidler insists for the paper’s conversion into a book, though unsuccessfully. A version dated February 10, 1956, was expanded to 70 pages and perhaps used for semi- nars. Interestingly, Wight continued to collect materials on the subject Notes ● 123

for 39 years, at least until 1971, including some reviews of Christopher Hill, Antichrist in Seventeenth-Century England (London: Oxford University Press, 1971). 2 3 . S e e a p p e n d i x 2 . 2 4 . M a r t i n W i g h t , r e v i e w o f The New Science of Politics by E. Voegelin, International Affairs 31, no. 3 (1955): 336. 2 5 . “ J o u r n a l i s t s t h e T r u e C o n t e m p o r a r y H i s t o r i a n s , ” Irish Independent, May 19, 1960, p. 3. The title and the content of the article allude to a passage still present in “Fortune’s Banter” existing version [43]. It should be remembered that Wight was a diplomatic correspondent for The Observer as well as its UN correspondent at the first session of the United Nations in the winter of 1946–47. His last newspaper article I know of is “The Lahore Conference,” The Manchester Guardian , April 3, 1954, p. 4. 26 . Martin Wight, “Fortune and Irony in International Politics,” Chicago, March 13, 1957, MWP 3. 2 7 . L u c i a n o C a n f o r a , Totalità e Selezione nella Storiografia Classica (Bari: Laterza, 1972), p. 21, note “*”. 2 8 . V i r g i l , The Aeneid of Virgil , ed. Archibald A. Maclardy (Reading, PA: Handy Book, 1901), 1.132.

2 The Wind of Politics: Disputing Determinism 1 . Henri Poincar é , “Chance,” in Science and Method , trans. Francis Maitland (London: Thomas Nelson, 1914), p. 64. 2 . According to Vigezzi, Wight had an eclectic position on this tradition of studies, even among the members of the British Committee where “the imprint of ‘historicism’, at times understood in the broader sense, elsewhere with a more marked reference to German school . . . is evident”; Brunello Vigezzi, The British Committee on the Theory of International Politics (1954–1985): The Rediscovery of History, trans. Ian Harvey (Milan: Edizioni Unicopli, 2005), pp. 133–4 and note 39. 3 . Martin Wight, “An Anatomy of International Thought,” Review of International Studies 13, no. 3 (1987): 224. “Professor Popper ignores the classical Historismus whose history Meinecke wrote. The complexities of its development into ‘historicism’ perhaps themselves need historical treatment if sense is to be made of them”; Martin Wight, review of The Poverty of Historicism by K. Popper, International Affairs 34, no. 3 (1958): 335. Cf. Friedrich Meinecke, Die Entstehung des Historismus (Berlin: Oldenburg, 1937). 4 . H a n s J . M o r g e n t h a u , r e v i e w o f Diplomatic Investigations by H. Butter f ield and M. Wight, eds., Political Science Quarterly 82, no. 3 (1967): 462. 5 . James Der Derian, Critical Practices in International Theory. Selected Essays (New York: Routledge, 2009), p. 200. 124 ● Notes

6 . Yanis Varoufakis, more recently than others, has proposed an explicit analysis of this issue in economic affairs in his Economic Indeterminacy (London: Routledge, 2014). Obviously, the charge of ideologism does not demonstrate anything by itself. Scientific theories must be criticized in terms of their logical coherence and empirical relevance. 7. Martin Wight, “Some Reflections on the Historical Antichrist,” undated paper, MWP 43, p. 4. Carr would call “mysticism” the view that the meaning of history lies somewhere outside (secular) history. Cf. Edward H. Carr, What Is History? (London: Macmillan, 1961), p. 103. 8 . J o h n 3 : 8 , K J 2 1 . 9. Martin Wight, “Necessity and Chance in International Relations.” undated sketch, MWP 3. 10 . Martin Wight, “Oxford Symposium,” November 4, 1941, MWP 61. That year, Wight had been registered as a conscientious objector by the Appellate Tribunal, after an initially unsuccessful application that brought the threat of imprisonment. He was granted exemption from military service on condition of “full time social research”; the Clerk to the Appellate Tribunal National Service (Armed Forces) Act to Martin White [sic ], May 20, 1941, MWP 239. 11 . Martin Wight, “Some Reflections on the historical Antichrist,” p. 31. These categories are intrinsically political. They have been somehow condensed in the debate between two Italian ministers during the invasion of Iraq. At that times Nicola Calipari, an Italian secret agent, was killed by a US soldier. Antonio Martino, minister of defense, declared, “The incident where Nicola Calipari has sacrificed his life almost pos- sesses the lineaments of an ancient Greek tragedy, where fate prevents the hero from gathering the fruit of his valour, where the killing hand is not moved by hate . . . but from the obscure designs of destiny.” Gianni Letta’s reply was authoritative and unusual for a member of government: “The theory of fate is obsolete. It is part of the Greek tragedy and surpassed by Christianity: now, we must act to learn the truth and it is what we are doing.” He concluded, “It is true that providence also guides and governs the world, but without contrasting the principle of freedom and responsibility. Responsibility imposes on man to know and act consequently and with coherence”; see the March 4, 2006, editions of La Repubblica, p. 10; Corriere della Sera, p. 21; and L’Unità , pp. 1, 12, whose front page headline read “Martino’s Insult: Calipari Killed by Fate” (original in Italian). 1 2 . R e i n h o l d N i e b u h r , The Irony of American History (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2008), pp. 167–8. 1 3 . N i c c o l ò M a c h i a v e l l i , Clizia , in The Comedies of Machiavelli , ed., David Sices and James B. Atkinson, bilingual ed. (Indianapolis: Hackett Publishing, 2007), p. 279. In the famous chapter 43, book 3, of his Discourses , Machiavelli writes, “That men born in one province display Notes ● 125

almost the same nature in every age” (“Che gli uomini, che nascono in una provincia osservino per tutti i tempi quasi quella medesima natura”); Niccol ò Machiavelli, Discourses on Livy, trans. Julia Conaway Bondanella and Peter Bondanella (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), emphasis added. What could lie behind this “almost,” or “ quasi”? Perhaps, it could be the absence of absolute uniformity of human nature. After all, if men were the same by nature in every age, what could be the reason for them to become so different in Machiavelli’s time, posing the urgent need of their emulation of an ancient human model—a return to antiquity? Gennaro Sasso has commented on Machiavelli’s aporias in Machiavelli: Enciclopedia Machiavelliana (Rome: Treccani, 2014), 1:502–10, 3:xlviii– xlix. However, in his view, as I understood Sasso’s conclusions, there is nothing behind that “ quasi ” that is incompatible with Machiavelli’s theoretical stance. 1 4 . H e r b e r t B u t t e r f i e l d , Christianity and History (London, G. Bell, 1949), pp. 67, 109. 15. Recently, Wendt has argued that “a world state is inevitable. Its cause is the teleological logic of anarchy” and “it will emerge whether or not anyone intends to bring it about”; Alexander Wendt, “Why a World State Is Inevitable,” European Journal of International Relations 9, no. 4 (2003): 528–9. 16 . Martin Wight, “The Church, Russia and the West,” Ecumenical Review: A Quarterly 1, Autumn–Summer (1948–49): 38. 1 7 . C a r r , What Is History? , p. 77. 1 8 . Q u o t e d i n M a r t i n W i g h t , International Theory: The Three Traditions, ed. Gabriele Wight and Brian Porter (Leicester: Leicester University Press, 1991), p. 29. 19. Discussing Wight’s “pessimism,” Bull opened the way for a historio- graphical vulgate based on this view; Hedley Bull, “Introduction: Martin Wight and the Study of International Relations,” in Martin Wight, Systems of States, ed. Hedley Bull (London: Leicester University Press, 1977), pp. 11–12. 20 . Martin Wight, “Some Reflections on the Historical Antichrist,” p. 35. 21 . Interestingly, it has been authoritatively noted that in Systems of States —a posthumous collection of papers written by Wight in the last eight years of his life—he gives prominence to those institutional features arose in the Hellenic states-system to sustain peaceful coexistence; see Giovanna Rocchi Daverio, Trent’anni di Studi sulle Relazioni Interstatali della Grecia di V e IV secolo a.C.: Indirizzi di Ricerca e Percorsi Tematici, in Daniele Foraboschi, ed., Storiografia ed Erudizione. Scritti in Onore di Ida Calabi Limentani (Milan: Cisalpino, 1999), p. 33. 22 . Cf. Wight, “The Church, Russia, and the West.” 23 . Jules Renard, Journal 1887–1910 , 2 vols. (Paris: É ditions Garnier, 2011), 2:403. 126 ● Notes

24 . Later on, for the British it was also a period of specific crisis deriving from the decline of the Empire; see Ian Hall, Dilemmas of Decline. British Intellectuals and World Politics, 1945–1975 (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2012). See also Vigezzi, The British Committee on the Theory of International Politics , pp. 41ff. A passage from a Wight’s 1958 conference, two years after the Suez crisis, is significant: “The dynamic character of the Commonwealth leads to false prediction, as its indefinite character leads to false description . . . The radical vice of writings about the Commonwealth has been emotional commitment. Like the greater part of the writing on International Relations between the Wars, it has been confident instead of prudent, commendatory instead of detached. It has sought to communicate a faith rather than to deepen understanding”; Martin Wight, “Is the Commonwealth a Non- Hobbesian Institution?,” The Journal of Commonwealth & Comparative Studies 16, no. 1 (1978): 124, 126. 25 . Martin Wight, “Christian Commentary,” BBC Home Service, October 29, 1948, MWP 39, p. 4. 2 6 . N o r b e r t o B o b b i o , Profilo Ideologico del Novecento (Milan: Garzanti, 1990), p. 197. English ed., Ideological Profile of Twentieth Century Italy , trans. Lydia G. Cochrane (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1995). 2 7 . W i g h t , “ C h r i s t i a n C o m m e n t a r y , ” p . 1 . 2 8 . N o r b e r t o B o b b i o , Teoria Generale della Politica , ed. Michelangelo Bovero (Turin: Einaudi, 1999), p. 636. 29 . Martin Wight, note attached to “World War III,” 1955, MWP 19. 30. Martin Wight, “World War III,” August 7, 1945, MWP 19, pp. 1–4. “At that moment of victory and general confidence the only periodical it was offered to for publication naturally rejected it,” he recalled ten years later in the note attached to “World War III.” 31. “The Balance of Terror,” p. 3, undated but written after 1955, MWP 129. 32 . For example, this is Hans J. Morgenthau in 1950: “War is no longer, as it once was, a rational instrument for foreign policy, the continuation of diplomacy with other means”; quoted in William E. Scheuerman, Morgenthau. Realism and Beyond (Cambridge, UK: Polity Press, 2009), p. 72. 3 3 . M a r t i n W i g h t , r e v i e w o f Diplomacy in a Changing World by S. D. Kertesz and M. A. Fitzsimons, eds., International Affairs 36, no. 4 (1960): 497. 3 4 . M a r t i n W i g h t , r e v i e w o f International Politics in the Atomic Age by J. Herz, American Political Science Review 54, no. 4 (1960): 1057. 3 5 . I b i d . 3 6 . M a r t i n W i g h t , r e v i e w o f The Use of History by A. L. Rowse and The Idea of History by R. G. Collingwood, International Affairs 23, no. 4 (1947): 576. Notes ● 127

37 . Of course, this ambition could be realized in the future. “We make no claim to be able to foretell the balancing dynamics of the coming decades. We do claim, however, that realist scholars will have to prepare for this analytic challenge.” Meanwhile, “by complicating the specification of the state’s position in the international system . . . determinate predictions [i.e., probabilistic predictions] can be made”; Thomas J. Christensen and Jack Snyder, “Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Multipolarity,” International Organizations 44, no. 2 (1990): 139, 168. The triad of explanation, prediction, and prescription appears at page 138. The last page seems to confirm that the base for these predictions should be, essentially, an elaboration of historical analogies: “A nuclear-armed multipolarity may resemble the stable 1880s more than it will the chain-ganging 1910s or buck passing 1930s.” Morgenthau wrote that “nobody with any sense of responsibility can predict what the future will bring” on the basis of historical analogies. “Fifty years from now, historians will point either to the similarities or to the dis- similarities and prove that what happened was bound to happen”; Hans J. Morgenthau, “Remarks on the Validity of Historical Analogies,” Social Research 39, no. 2 (1972): 364. 38 . Cf. Miroslav Nincic and Joseph Lepgold, eds., Being Useful: Policy Relevance and International Relations Theory (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2000), p. 28. Jervis has succinctly discussed some reasons why prediction is so difficult in world politics: “Multiple factors are usually at work, actors learn, small events can affect the course of history . . . many well-established generalizations . . . may no longer hold”; Robert Jervis, “The Future of World Politics: Will It Resemble the Past?,” International Security 16, no. 3 (1991–92): 39. 39 . “As Lord Acton once pointed out, the people who are fighting in real life rarely have clear vision, even of the issues which brought them into conflict with one another”; Butterfield, Christianity and History , p. 92. 4 0 . S e e c h a p t e r 7 . 4 1 . H a r o l d L a s s w e l l , Politics: Who Gets What, When, How (New York: Whittlesey House, 1936). 42 . Richard Holbrooke, To End a War (New York: Modern Library, 1998), p. xv. Holbrooke recalls that “the [Bosnia] negotiations were simulta- neously cerebral and physical, abstract and personal, something like a combination of chess and mountain climbing . . . In August 1995, when they began, it was almost universally believed that they would fail, as all previous efforts had. And we knew that if we failed, the war would continue” (pp. xv, xvii). For a brief reflection on the siege of Sarajevo see Michele Chiaruzzi, “The Siege Wall and Its After-Effects: Sarajevo,” Global Change, Pace & Security 26, no. 3 (2014): 315–23. 43 . Martin Wight, “A Philosophy of Tension,” July 13, 1941, MWP 60, p. 11. The following propositions are stated by Wight on pages 3–4: 128 ● Notes

(1) “That the supreme avenue to reality in human life lies in Tension”; (2) “This Tension must be defined as a sustained attunement of opposites”; (3) “These opposites must be opposites, each of which, were it taken individually, would unhesitatingly be recognized as a good.”; (4) “Through the two opposites are both good . . . one of them can be recognized has a greater good than the other”; and (5) “The philosophy of Tension implies an assumption of disharmony, of discord, as in some sense a characteristics of ultimate reality.” 44 . Hedley Bull, “Systematic Innovation and Social Philosophy,” Inquiry: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Philosophy 3, no. 1–4 (1960): 202. 4 5 . L a s s w e l l , Politics , p. 295. 46 . Martin Wight, “Interests of States,” paper presented to the British Committee, p. 20, quoted in Vigezzi, The British Committee on the Theory of International Politics , p. 50. Of course, on the national interest opinions diverge: “National interests seem quite stable, in some cases over centuries”; Alexander Wendt, “Social Theory as Cartesian Science: An Auto-Critique from a Quantum Perspective,” in Stefano Guzzini and Anna Leander, eds., Constructivism and International Relations: Alexander Wendt and His Critics (London: Routledge, 2006), p. 211. After his landmark decision to meet Castro in Cuba, President Obama said, “The United States will not be imprisoned by the past—we’re looking to the future . . . I’m not interested in having battles that frankly started before I was born”; quoted in Julie Hirschfeld Davis and Randal C. Archibold, “Obama Meets Ra úl Castro, Making History,” International New York Times , April 11, 2015, digital ed. 47 . Dennis H. Wrong, “Some Problems in Defining Power,” American Journal of Sociology 73, no. 6 (1968): 675–6. 48 . Jacques Chirac, “France Is Not a Pacifist Country,” interview by James Graff and Bruce Crumley, Time , February 2, 2003, p. 31, international ed. Chirac made implicit reference to George W. Bush’s intention to invade Iraq.

3 A Polemical Reflex 1 . H e d l e y B u l l , “ The Twenty Years’ Crisis Thirty Years On,” International Journal 24, no. 4 (1969): 632. The classical locus of this critique in the American political science is Hans J. Morgenthau, Scientific Man vs. Power Politics (Chicago: Chicago University Press, 1946) but Morgenthau’s essay on “The Meaning of Science in Our Era and the Mission of Human Being,” written in 1934, is also particularly interesting. To my knowledge, this essay is still unpublished even in German but it is part of the remarkable volume Hans J. Morgenthau, Il Concetto del Politico. Contra Schmitt , ed. Alessandro Campi and Luigi Cimmino (Soveria Mannelli: Rubbettino, 2009), pp. 79–152. Notes ● 129

2 . “What shall we do” is the recurrent question in Luke 3:10–14, KJ21. Nikolai Chernyshevsky was Lenin’s favorite Russian thinker and his novel, What Is to be Done? (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1989), was Lenin’s favorite novel. What follows is Francis Randall’s comment in his review of the 1961 edition introduced by Edward H. Carr: “Chernyshevsky posed the most intractable problem that faces an ethical revolutionary. The propagandist for rational ethics forced his hero into a genuinely tragic dilemma, in which the ethical problem is not rationally soluble. Chernyshevsky had the greatness to point beyond his system, and beyond himself”; Slavic Review 21, no. 1 (1962): 180. 3 . Hans J. Morgenthau, “The Intellectual and Moral Dilemma of Politics,” in Politics in the Twentieth Century (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1962), 1:65–6. 4 . I b i d . 5 . B e r n a r d C r i c k , The American Science of Politics. Its Origins and Conditions (Berkley: University of California Press, 1964), p. 38. 6 . In Gaddis’s description, a cornerstone of modern political science, the “behavioralist analysis,” “normally extends from the cautious confirma- tion of the obvious to the inability to confirm anything at all”; John Lewis Gaddis, “International Relations Theory and the End of the Cold War,” International Security 17, no. 3 (1992–93): 38. 7 . For example, the so-called security dilemma, a basic concept in international relations, seems to be essentially described by Montesquieu’s reflection on the increase of troops in De l’Esprit des Lois : “A new dis- temper has spread itself over Europe, infecting our princes, and inducing them to keep up an exorbitant number of troops. It has its redoubling, and of necessity becomes contagious. For, as soon as one prince aug- ments his forces, the rest of course do the same; so that nothing is gained thereby but the public ruin. Each monarch keeps as many armies on foot as if his people were in danger of being exterminated; and they give the name of peace to this general effort of all against all”; Charles de Secondat Montesquieu, The Spirit of the Laws , ed. Anne M. Cohler, Basia C. Miller, and Harold S. Stone (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000), 12:17. 8 . Interestingly enough, in a book dedicated to the instruments and the problems of game theory applied to politics, the editor laid stress on “a series of unpleasant surprises; the individual strategies are rational, but the outcomes are often irrational; norms are created for stability, but the results generate instability; competition/cooperation rules are general, but outcomes are often for particular benefit”; Gian Enrico Rusconi, ed., Giochi e Paradossi in Politica (Turin: Einaudi, 1989), pp. xxix–xxx. 9 . The argument affirming the possibility of historical prediction based on statistical data and the cyclical recurrence of long cycles is against this conception; see Joshua Goldstein, Long Cycles. Prosperity and War in the 130 ● Notes

Modern Age (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1998). The same position is reaffirmed in his The Predictive Power of Long Wave Theory, 1989–2004 , in Tessaleno Devezas, ed., Kondratiess Waves, Warfare and World Security (Amsterdam: Ios Press, 2006), pp. 137–44. 1 0 . G i u l i a n o T o r a l d o d i F r a n c i a , Tempo, Cambiamento, Invarianza (Turin: Einaudi-Scuola Superiore di Studi Storici, 1994), p. viii. 11 . On the relationship between time and political crisis, see Alessandro Colombo, Tempi Decisivi. Natura e Retorica delle Crisi Internazionali (Milan: Feltrinelli, 2014). 12 . August Ludwig von Schlozer, Theorie der Statistik nebst Ideen ü ber das Studium der Politik ü berhaupt (Gottingen: Vandenhoeck und Ruprecht, 1804), p. 86. 1 3 . M a r t i n W i g h t , International Theory: The Three Traditions, ed. Gabriele Wight and Brian Porter (Leicester: Leicester University Press, 1991), p. 18. Clearly, this is a sort of attack that has nothing to envy to “the intemperate and exhilarating onslaught on psychology by Collingwood” that Wight explicitly justifies at p. 21. 1 4 . I b i d . , p . 2 1 . 1 5 . N i c c o l ò M a c h i a v e l l i , Discourses on Livy, trans. Julia Conaway Bondanella and Peter Bondanella (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), 1:56. 16 . He makes reference to Johannes Kepler, recognizing the insepara- bility between the astrologist and the astronomer that G é rard Simon has explained in Kepler Astronome Astrologue (Paris: Gallimard, 1979). There is a notable passage from Kepler’s Conversation with the Sidereal Messenger, where he compares an hypothetical prescient man to God: “If the glory of the Architect of this world is greater than that of those who contemplate it, because that one quarry outside himself the reasons for its construction, while the other recognizes barely and with great effort the reasons expressed in the same building, it is undeniable that those who conceive with their wit the causes of things, before things become apparent to their senses, are more similar to the Architect than all others”; Ioannis Kepleri, Dissertatio cum Nuncio Sidereo (Francofurti: Apud D. Zachariam Palthenium, 1611), p. 41. 17. Jacqueline Stevens, “Political Scientist Are Lousy Forecaster,” New York Time—Sunday Review, June 24, 2012, p. 6. 18 . Ibid. The Reagans have never denied the influence of the astrologer upon the president: from the president’s perception of the Soviet leadership to the astrologer’s involvement in summits’ timeline definition and negotiations length. The astrologer’s book includes an intriguing astro- logical interpretation of why the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty is dangerous. She thinks that it is because her advice was not exactly followed; see Joan Quigley, What Does Joan Say? (New York: Carol Publishing Group, 1990), esp. pp. 172–82. The most famous case is Himmler “that (like Hitler and Wallenstein) . . . was unduly influenced Notes ● 131

by his astrologer”; Hugh Trevor-Roper, The Last Days of Hitler (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1987), p. 73. The use of astrologers seems a persistent feature of political leadership; cf. Ellen Barry, “As Vote Nears, Astrologer for Sri Lanka’s President Faces Ultimate Test of His Skills,” International New York Times , January 6, 2015, digital ed. 19 . Assessing Morgenthau’s worries about the worst alternative scenario, and recalling “that the Cold War very nearly became ‘hot’ in many occa- sions,” Scheuerman makes an unusual comment: “We probably survived the Cold War because of luck and contingencies to a greater extent than it is now fashionable to admit”; William E. Scheuerman, Morgenthau. Realism and Beyond (Cambridge, UK: Polity Press, 2009), p. 213, note 8. 20. John Lewis Gaddis, “International Relations Theory,” pp. 5, 6, 52. Here is one of the latest failure of pollsters, the most revered kind of “modern- day soothsaying” of our times: “Netanyahu in Surprise Election Win,” BBC News , March 18, 2015, digital ed. 2 1 . M a r t i n W i g h t , Power Politics (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1946), p. 48. These lines are significantly absent from the first version of Power Politics (pp. 17–24, esp. 21–2). They have been apparently written in the late 1950s. If so, they would be coeval with “Fortune’s Banter.” 2 2 . U n t i t l e d p a p e r , MWP 202. 23 . Robert Jervis, “Fear of the Future: Virtue and Vices in Foreign Policy,” Aspenia 66, January (2015): 25, 31. Jervis argues that “farsightedness— normally a virtue—can become a vice in the realm of international relations” because “fear of undesired changes in the future, then, can generate immediate conflict . . . In the realm of international relations, the combination of the complexities of the international environment and the way leaders think about that environment can turn what are normally virtues into vices.” 2 4 . M a r t i n W i g h t , “ H i s t o r y ’ s T h e m e , ” The Observer , October 23, 1949, p. 7. See the generous quotation from Butterfield in “Fortune’s Banter” [22]. 2 5 . I b i d . , p . 7 . 26 . Martin Wight, “United Nations Notebook,” The Observer , November 17, 1946, p. 5. 2 7 . I b i d . 28 . Ma r t i n W i g h t , “ H i s t o r y a n d J u d g e m e n t : B u t t e r f i e l d , N i e b u h r , a n d t h e Technical Historian,” The Frontier 25, no. 8 (1950): 306–7. 2 9 . M a r t i n W i g h t , “ T h e M a r c h o f H i s t o r y , ” The Observer , January 5, 1947, p. 3. Cf. Arnold J. Toynbee, A Study of History , 12 vols. (London: Oxford University Press, 1934–60), and Oswald Spengler, The Decline of the West , 2 vols. (New York: Knopf, 1926–28). 30 . Wight to Morgenthau, December 24, 1954, MWP 47. See Hans J. Morgenthau, “Toynbee and the Historical Imagination,” Encounter , March (1955): 70–5. 132 ● Notes

31. Here is Friedrich A. Hayek’s idea in The Counter Revolution of Science. Studies on the Abuse of Reason (New York: Macmillan, 1964), pp. 31, 33, 35: “Unless we can understand what the acting people mean by their actions any attempt to explain them, i.e., to subsume them under rules which connect similar situations with similar actions, are bound to fail . . . Not only men’s action towards external objects but also all the relations between men and all the social institutions can be understood only in terms of what men think about them . . . Only what people know or believe can enter as a motive into their conscious action.” 32 . Wight, “History’s Theme,” p. 7.

4 The Essence of Political Realism: Tragedy or Irony? 1 . C f . M a r t i n W i g h t , Four Seminal Thinkers in International Theory . Machiavelli, Grotius, Kant & Mazzini , ed. Gabriele Wight and Brian Porter (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005). 2 . I b i d . , p p . 3 – 2 8 . 3. “Dr. Niebuhr is a modern Ezekiel”: this is Wight’s comment about Niebuhr’s prophetic stance on politics in his review of Discerning the Signs of the Times by R. Niebuhr, International Affairs 23, no. 4 (1947): 558. 4 . Carlo Jean, “Introduzione,” in Karl Von Clausewitz, Della Guerra (Milan: Mondadori, 1991), p. xxxi. 5 . R e i n h o l d N i e b u h r , The Irony of American History (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2008), p. xxiii. 6 . W i g h t , Four Seminal Thinkers in International Theory , pp. 18–19. 7 . Martin Wight, “The Church, Russia and the West,” Ecumenical Review: A Quarterly 1, Autumn–Summer (1948–49): 26. 8 . Martin Wight, “On the Abolition of War,” in Harry Bauer and Elisabetta Brighi, eds., International Relations at LSE. A History of 75 Years (London: Millennium Publishing Group, 2003), p. 54. 9 . Martin Wight, “Germany,” in Arnold J. Toynbee and Frederick T. Ashton Gwatin, eds., The World in March 1939 (Oxford: Oxford University Press for the Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1952), p. 320. 10 . Martin Wight, “Eastern Europe,” in Arnold J. Toynbee and Frederick T. Ashton Gwatin, eds., The World in March 1939 , p. 263. “This truly great man,” wrote Seton-Watson, “was for half a century a prophet of his people . . . The political and moral educators of generations of young men not only from the Czech Lands but from all the Slav countries of Europe”; Hugh Seton-Watson, Eastern Europe between the Wars, 1918– 1941 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1945), pp. 184, 185. 11 . Wight, “On the Abolition of War,” p. 57. Notes ● 133

1 2 . R a y m o n d A r o n , Peace and War: A Theory of International Relations (New York: Doubleday, 1966), p. 666. 1 3 . M a r t i n W i g h t , r e v i e w o f International Politics in the Atomic Age by J. Herz, American Political Science Review 54, no. 4 (1960): 1057. Even today, this statement seems to have the character of a wish for the impossible. Yet the Cold War ended in that way, only the other way around. The East did not fight to the end. The Soviet Union was dissolved. A great power died in its bed. 1 4 . M a r t i n W i g h t , International Theory: The Three Traditions, ed. Gabriele Wight and Brian Porter (Leicester: Leicester University Press, 1991), p. 251. 15 . Arnold Wolfers, “Statesmanship and Moral Choice,” World Politics 1, no. 2 (1949): 187. 1 6 . W i g h t , International Theory , p. 251. In “Fortune’s Banter,” Wight’s personal judgments are not hidden. He criticizes “the imbecility of the Foreign Office, the perversity of Mr. Dulles or Dr. Salazar or Dr. Nkrumah [that] confirm our special political dislikes” [43]. 1 7 . W i g h t , Four Seminal Thinkers in International Theory , p. 17. 18 . The connection between political realism and tragedy never disappeared in international thought. For instance, Lebow argues that the wisdom of realism could be synthesized in his correlation with the tragic in politics; see Richard N. Lebow, The Tragic Vision of Politics. Ethics, Interests and Orders (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003), and Toni Erskine and Richard Lebow, eds., Tragedy and International Relations (Basingstoke: Palgrave, 2012). Mearsheimer’s celebrated book on “offen- sive realism” is named after The Tragedy of Great Powers Politics (New York: Norton, 2001). 1 9 . N i e b u h r , The Irony of American History , p. 158. 20 . Martin Wight, “Does Christianity Care for the World and How?,” MWP 1/3. 2 1 . M a r t i n W i g h t , “ T h e M a r c h o f H i s t o r y , ” The Observer , January 5, 1947, p. 3.

5 Fortune and Irony as Experiential Acquisitions 1 . M a r t i n W i g h t , International Theory: The Three Traditions, ed. Gabriele Wight and Brian Porter (Leicester: Leicester University Press, 1991), p. 268. 2 . Martin Wight, review of Diplomatic History 1713–1933 by C. Petrie, International Affairs 23, no. 4 (1947): 574. 3 . Arnaldo Momigliano, “After Gibbon’s Decline and Fall ,” in his Sesto Contributo alla Storia degli Studi Classici e del Mondo Antico (Rome: Edizioni di Storia e Letteratura, 1980), 1:281–2. 134 ● Notes

4 . Giambattista Vico, On the Most Ancient Wisdom of the Italians Unearthed from the Origins of the Latin Language, including the Disputation with the Giornale de’ letterati d’Italia (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1988), pp. 98–9. The idiom from Terence, Eunuchus , 62–3, was sug- gested by Hugo Grotius: “You that attempt to fix by certain rules / Things so uncertain, may with like success / Strive to run mad, and yet preserve your reason”; The Rights of War and Peace , ed. Richard Tuck, 3 vols. (Indianapolis, IN: Liberty Fund, 2005), 1:4. 5 . R o b e r t J a c k s o n , The Global Covenant. Human Conduct in a World of States (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000), p. 136. 6 . Martin Wight, “European Foundation: Plato to Dante,” Summer 1963, MWP 124, p. 64. 7 . W i g h t , International Theory , p. 258. 8 . R e i n h o l d N i e b u h r , The Irony of American History (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2008), p. 170. 9 . I b i d . , p . 1 6 8 . 10 . This part is indebted to Edgard Morin’s extended reflection. A synthe- sis is Morin’s Au-del à du Dé terminisme: Le Dialogue de L’Ordre et du Dé sordre , in Krzysztof Pomian ed., La Querelle du D é terminisme (Paris: Gallimard, 1991), pp. 79–101. 1 1 . R a y m o n d B o u d o n , La Place du D ésordre . Critique des Th éories du Changement Social (Paris: Presses Universitaires de France, 1985), p. 184. 12 . Karl W. Deutsch, “On Political Theory and Political Action,” American Political Science Review 65, no. 1 (1971): 18, emphasis in the original. 1 3 . I b i d . 14 . Quoted in Edward H. Carr, What Is History? (London: Macmillan, 1961), p. 95. 15 . Karl von Clausewitz, On War , ed. Michael Howard and Peter Paret (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1984), p. 87, emphasis added. The opposite assertion that “war is the breakdown of policy” does not change the fact that war and peace are not autonomous spheres. Both are included in the political domain. More precisely, they are sub- ordinate to politics. Peace and war not only have to be thought together but one is existentially relative to the other and both to politics. “It is absurd to think peace in itself,” said Freund, since “such an attitude has as its corollary the idea of war in itself.” To say that is to talk “political nonsense” because it “exclude peace from political activity and leads to conceive it under the category of heavenly bliss”; Julien Freund, Politiqu é et Impolitique (Paris: Sirey, 1987), p. 147. 1 6 . C l a u s e w i t z , On War , p. 120. 1 7 . I b i d . 1 8 . I b i d . 1 9 . I b i d . , p . 1 0 1 . Notes ● 135

2 0 . M a r t i n W i g h t , Power Politics (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1946), 1978 ed., p. 136. 2 1 . I b i d . 2 2 . I b i d . , p . 1 3 7 . 2 3 . I b i d . , p . 1 3 6 . 2 4 . C l a u s e w i t z , On War , p. 86. 2 5 . N o r b e r t o B o b b i o , Profilo Ideologico del Novecento (Milan: Garzanti, 1990), pp. 52–3. 26 . Paolo Rossi goes on as follows: “But the progress of political knowledge could only be determined by binding it to the belief that the changing variety and plurality of elements, which make up and pervade the social dimension, can be finally explained only by interpretations, models, and theories that exclude any occult qualities”; “Introduzione,” in Francesco Bacone, Scritti Filosofici , ed. Paolo Rossi (Turin: Utet, 1999), p. 200.

6 The Causal and Moral Complexity of Politics 1 . Martin Wight, “Germany,” in Arnold J. Toynbee and Frederick T. Ashton Gwatin, eds., The World in March 1939 (Oxford: Oxford University Press for the Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1952), p. 348. 2 . Raymond Boudon, La Place du Dé sordre . Critique des Th éories du Changement Social (Paris: Presses Universitaires de France, 1985), p. 189, emphasis in the original. Boudon’s observation recalls the so-called Cournot effect: two series of events are external to one another, except for the moment, and in the manner, of their intersection. Each series is causally explicable in itself but their conjunction and result is not: “Events brought about by the combination or conjunction of other events, which belong to independent series are called fortuitous events, or the result of chance ”; Antoine Augustin Cournot, An Essay on the Foundations of Our Knowledge , trans. Merritt H. Moore (New York: Liberal Arts Press, 1956), 3:30, emphasis in the original. 3 . Cf. Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, Politics and Uncertainty: Theory, Models and Applications (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998), p. 14. 4 . C o u r n o t , An Essay on the Foundations of Our Knowledge , 3:32. 5 . Still, Cioran speculates on the factors of the imperial and the human decadence as part of an “ironic providence”: “The more humane an empire becomes, the more readily there develop within it the contradic- tions by which it will perish . . . If it lays itself open to tolerance, that ‘virtue’ will destroy its unity and its power, and will act upon it in the manner of a deadly poison it has administered to itself. This is because tolerance is not only the pseudonym of freedom, but also of mind; and mind, even more deadly to empires than to individuals, erodes them compromises their solidity, and accelerates their collapse. Hence it is the 136 ● Notes

very instrument an ironic providence employs to destroy them”; Emil Cioran, History and Utopia , trans. Richard Howard (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1998), pp. 32–3. 6 . See Albert Hirschman, The Rhetoric of Reaction. Perversity, Futility, Jeopardy (Cambridge, MA: Belknap, 1991). 7 . I b i d . , p . 1 6 5 . 8 . Robert Jervis, “Complexity and the Analysis of Political and Social Life,” Political Science Quarterly 112, no. 4 (1997): 574. Also, one may add that a reason for “conservatism” is harmless satisfaction. Thus, some “conser- vatives” may seek simply to preserve things as they are against self-styled “reformism.” 9 . I borrow this term from Aron’s notion of “pluralit é dialectique ”; Raymond Aron, Introduction a la Philosophie de l’Histoire: Essai sur le Limites de l’Objectivité Historique (Paris: Gallimard, 1957), p. 277. 1 0 . The Military Writings and Speeches of Leon Trotsky , trans. Brian Pearce (London: New Park, 1979), 1:10. 11. Martin Wight, “Some Reflections on the Historical Antichrist,” undated paper, MWP 43, pp. 10–11. 12 . Ibid., pp. 5–6. Here Wight calls attention to Koestler’s novels, The Gladiators and Darkness at Noon. 1 3 . C f . P h i l i p G o u r e v i t c h , “ T h e A r a b W i n t e r , ” The New Yorker , December 28, 2011, digital ed. Mohammad al-Daher, better known as Abu Azzam, the commander of the rebel Farouq Brigades, part of the “Free Syrian Army” in the vast swath of eastern Syria, said, “The revolution is dead. It was sold”; quoted in Nour Lamas, “Syrian Rebels Hurt by Delay,” The Wall Street Journal , September 11, 2013, p. 12. “Far from undermining the Saudi dynasty, the ensuing chaos across the region appears instead to have lifted the monarchy to unrivalled power and influence . . . ‘It is ironic or anachronistic if viewed from outside,’ said Gamal Abdel Gawad, a researcher at the state-funded Al Ahram Center for Strategic and International Studies in Cairo”; David D. Kirkpatrick, “Saudis Expand Sway in Region as Others Falter,” International New York Times , January 26, 2015. 14 . Wight, “Some Reflections on the Historical Antichrist,” pp. 5–6, 10–11. 1 5 . M a r t i n W i g h t , Four Seminal Thinkers in International Theory . Machiavelli, Grotius, Kant & Mazzini , ed. Gabriele Wight and Brian Porter (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005), pp. 19–21. 1 6 . C f . i b i d . , p . 1 9 . 1 7 . A n d r e j G r o m y k o , Memoirs, trans. Harold Shukman (New York: Doubleday, 1989), p. 183. 1 8 . W i g h t , Four Seminal Thinkers in International Theory , p. 20. 19 . Frank-Walter Steinmeier, “Save Our Trans-Atlantic Order,” International New York Times , March 11, 2015, digital ed. Notes ● 137

20 . United Nation Security Council, “The Situation in Libya,” UNSC 6498th Meeting, March 17, 2011, S/pv.6498, p. 6. Brazil, China, Germany, India, and Russian Federation abstained. 2 1 . N i c c o l ò M a c h i a v e l l i , The Prince , trans. William K. Marriott (London: J. M. Dent, 1958), chapter 3. 2 2 . N i c c o l ò M a c h i a v e l l i , Il Principe , ed. Arthur Burd, introduction by Lord Acton (Oxford, UK: Clarendon Press, 1891), chapter 3. 2 3 . G a b r i e l K o l k o , Another Century of War? (New York: New Press, 2004), p. 45. 2 4 . N i c c o l ò M a c h i a v e l l i , Discourses on Livy, trans. Julia Conaway Bondanella and Peter Bondanella (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), 3:21. 2 5 . I b i d . , 3 : 2 2 . 26 . Richard Holbrooke, To End a War (New York: Modern Library, 1998), p. xvii. 27 . According to Carr, this is one of “the three essential tenets implicit in Machiavelli’s doctrine”; Edward H. Carr, The Twenty Years’ Crisis 1919– 1939. An Introduction to the Study of International Relations (Basingstoke: Palgrave, 2001), p. 62.

7 Velle Non Discitur? The Impact of Will in Politics 1 . Lucius Annaeus Seneca, Moral Epistles , trans. Richard M. Gummere (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1917–25), 10.81.13. The statement is directed against those who assign the capacity to act virtu- ously only to the wise men: “Scientia illi potius quam voluntas desit: velle non discitur.” 2. “Similmente interviene della fortuna, la quale dimostra la sua potenza dove non è ordinata virt ù a resisterle ”; Niccol ò Machiavelli, Il Principe , ed. Arthur Burd (Oxford, UK: Clarendon Press, 1891), chapter 25, p. 358, emphasis added. “Virtuosity” is Wight’s translation of “ virt ù” in his International Theory, p. 248. 3 . Emphasis added. Cf. also “Fortune’s Banter” [12]. 4 . See ibid. [1]. 5 . See ibid. [1], note. 6 . Edward H. Carr, What Is History? (London: Macmillan, 1961), p. 36. 7 . M a r t i n W i g h t , Four Seminal Thinkers in International Theory . Machiavelli, Grotius, Kant & Mazzini , ed. Gabriele Wight and Brian Porter (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005), p. 22. 8 . Hans J. Morgenthau, “Henry Kissinger, Secretary of State. An Evaluation,” Encounter , November (1974): 61. 9 . I b i d . 10 . Martin Wight, “Germany,” in Arnold J. Toynbee and Frederick T. Ashton Gwatin, eds., The World in March 1939 (Oxford: Oxford University 138 ● Notes

Press for the Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1952), p. 347. “In one respect Hitler was unique among the great political adventurers of history. It was the fortune of Cesare Borgia to fulfil a pattern of statecraft already conceived by so potent a thinker as Machiavelli. But Hitler, as befitting the Borgia of universal semi-literacy and popular an age of journalism, was both Cesare and Machiavelli in one; and had expressed very early in his career, under a transparent veil of detachment, the consciousness of being the rare combination of practical politician and political thinker”; ibid., p. 320. 11 . Ibid., p. 347. These concepts and the historical example recur in Wight’s “Fortune’s Banter” [30], but with direct quotation from primary sources. 12 . Wight, “Germany,” p. 348, note 4. 13 . Morgenthau, “Henry Kissinger, Secretary of State,” p. 61. 1 4 . I b i d . 15 . Ibid., p. 61, emphasis added. This is not the typical realist stance. Here “greatness” is a quality independent from political success (or failure). 16 . In 1962, Morgenthau’s ideas were akin to voluntarism, as defined by Wight, that is, believing that will is, or can be, the ultimate master of events. He wrote, “Historic experience indicates what our course must be. The statesmen who became masters of events—the Washingtons and the Lincolns, the Richelieus and the Bismarcks—had one quality in common: they combined a conscious general conception of foreign policy, of its direction and aim, with the ability to manipulate concrete circumstances in the light of that conception”; Hans J. Morgenthau, “Public Affairs: The Perils of Political Empiricism,” Commentary 34, no. 1 (1962): 63. 1 7 . W i g h t , “ G e r m a n y , ” p . 8 1 . 1 8 . X e n o p h o n , Hellenica , trans. Carleton L. Brownson (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1918), 2.2.3. The treatment is narrated by Thucydides 5.116.4: “The Athenians thereupon slew all the adult males whom they had taken and made slaves of the children and women”; History of the Peloponnesian War , trans. Charles F. Smith (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University, 1921). On the theory that Hellenica should be considered the continuation of Thucydides’s History , see at least Luciano Canfora, Tucidide Continuato (Padua: Antenore, 1970) and his Le Vie del Classicismo (Bari: Dedalo, 2004) where Xenophon is the “‘editor’ of Thucydide’s papers” (p. 221). This theory was originally advanced by Giacomo Leopardi, one of the most challenging of nineteenth-century thinkers, in his Zibaldone , trans. Kathleen Baldwin et al. (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2013), January 2, 1821, § 468: “In any case, if Xenophon’s history Hellenica has no introduction, this is because it was intended to continue and to become a single corpus with Thucydides’ history.” Notes ● 139

1 9 . T h u c y d i d e s 5 . 9 0 . 20 . “One of the things which switching from LSE to Sussex enabled me to do, has been to return to teaching Greek history, which I have enjoyed”; Wight to Keens-Soper, October 6, 1970, MWP 233. 2 1 . T h u c y d i d e s 5 . 1 0 2 . 2 2 . L u c i a n o C a n f o r a , Tucidide: L’Oligarca Imperfetto (Pordenone: Edizioni Studio Tesi, 1991), pp. vii–xi. 23 . See Luciano Canfora, “Tucidide,” in Gennaro Sasso e Giorgio Inglese, eds., Machiavelli: Enciclopedia Machiavelliana (Rome: Treccani, 2014), 2:630. 24 . See Canfora’s interpretation in his Tucidide: L’Oligarca Imperfetto , p. 52. 25 . Giacomo Leopardi, La Strage delle Illusioni (Milan: Adelphi, 2010), p. 64. 2 6 . V l a d i m i r I . L e n i n , Two Tactics of Social-Democracy in the Democratic Revolution (Peking: Foreign Language Press, 1965), p. 92. 2 7 . W i g h t , “ G e r m a n y , ” p . 3 4 0 . 28 . Antonio Gramsci, “Il Compagno G. M. Serrati e le Generazioni del Socialismo Italiano,” in Paolo Spriano, ed., Scritti Politici , 4 vols. (Rome: Editori Riuniti, 1973), 3:193. See Alessandro Natta, Serrati. Vita e Lettere di un Rivoluzionario (Rome: Editori Riuniti, 2001). 29 . Speech at the 16th Congress of the Italian Socialist Party, Bologna, October 5, 1919; quoted in Norberto Bobbio, Profilo Ideologico del Novecento (Milan: Garzanti, 1990), pp. 140–1. 30 . Karl von Clausewitz, On War , ed. Michael Howard and Peter Paret (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1984), p. 528. 31 . It was apparently coined on February 26, 1953 and reported in The New York Times : “He [sc. Adlai Stevenson] derided the Secretary [ sc. J. F. Dulles] for ‘boasting of his brinkmanship—the art of bringing us to the edge of the nuclear abyss’”; Oxford Language Dictionary Online , Oxford University Press, March 2015. The term has main- tained currency, for example, Michael R. Gordon and David E. Sanger, “Brinkmanship Heightens as Deadline for a Nuclear Deal with Iran Looms,” International New York Times , November 22, 2014, p. 6. “Blowback,” the adverse consequences of a (political) situation or action, is a more recent neologism. It was apparently coined on November 25, 1968. 32 . Henry Kissinger, “Foreword,” in Raymond Aron, Memoirs , trans. George Holoch (New York: Holmes & Meier, 1990), p. xi. 33 . Hedley Bull, “International Relations as an Academic Pursuit,” in Kai Alderson and Andrew Hurrell, eds., Hedley Bull on International Society (Basingstoke: Macmillan, 2000), p. 259. The original version of this position is in Hedley Bull, The Control of the Arms Race. Disarmament and Arms Control in the Nuclear Age (London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 140 ● Notes

1961), p. 48, where he also states, “The notion that there is a distinction between rational action and other kind of action, or between reason and the passions, is indefensible.” 3 4 . B u l l , The Control of the Arms Race , p. 48. 3 5 . I b i d .

Epilogue Resisting Destiny 1 . L u c r e t i u s , De Rerum Natura Libri Sex , ed. Cyril Bailey (Oxford, UK: Clarendon Press, 1963), 2:277–80: “Iamne vides igitur, quamquam vis extera multos pellat et invitos cogat procedere saepe praecipitesque rapi, tamen esse in pectore nostro quiddam quod contra pugnare obstareque possit?,” emphasis added. 2 . A founder of the Socialist League, “an advocate of revolution,” Morris “considered himself a communist, and enjoyed emphasizing the word”; Florence and William Boos, “The Utopian Communism of William Morris,” History of Political Thought 7, no. 3 (1986): 492. The authoritative study of Edward P. Thompson, William Morris: Romantic to Revolutionary (Oakland, CA: PM press, 2011), first published in 1955, locates Morris in the romantic and aesthetic rejection of capital- ism. According to Harry Pitt, in 1938 Wight had two heroes: Lenin and T. E. Lawrence. However, “his ardour for Lenin cooled as he got older”; Ian Hall, The International Thought of Martin Wight (New York: Palgrave, 2006), p. 174, note 89. Later on, apparently in the early 1960s, he described Lenin as “a commanding genius”; Martin Wight, Power Politics (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1946), 1978 ed., p. 85. 3 . Martin Wight, “Christian Commentary,” BBC Home Service, October , 29, 1948, p. 3. Again, there is a personal experiential reference for this controversial dictum: “The classical political example of debas- ing and perverting Hope . . . is the attitude of the majority of our own public opinion towards foreign affairs in the nineteenth-thirties”; ibid. Elsewhere, Wight recalls “the collective security we dreamed of in the ’thirties, the war against Mussolini”; Wight, Power Politics , 1978 ed., p. 142. MacKinnon drew attention to the fact that, in his interpretation, “even reference to the manifestation of anti-Christ was quoted by Professor Wight as suggesting that an extreme pessimism concern- ing progress towards an international order was perfectly compatible with an underlying and enduring hope”; Donald MacKinnon, “Power Politics and Religious Faith”, British Journal of International Studies 6, no. 1 (1980): 2. These are Machiavelli’s last words in a combat- ive chapter on fortune’s malignity: “But, for all that, they [men] must never lose heart . . . They have always room for hope, and ought never to Notes ● 141

abandon it, whatsoever befalls, and into whatsoever straits they come.” This is the final demonstration that hope is not a theological virtue only; Niccol ò Machiavelli, Discourses on the First Decade of Titus Livius , trans. Ninia H. Thomson (London: Kegan Paul, 1883), chapter 29, p. 312. 4 . Yiannis Ritsos, “Helen,” in Euripides, Trojan Women: The Trojan Women by Euripides and Helen and Orestes by Ritsos, trans. Gwendolyn MacEwen and Nikos Tsingos (Toronto: Exile Editions, 1981), p. 21. Ritsos was a partisan during the Axis occupation of Greece (1941–45) as well as a political prisoner during the military dictatorship. 5 . H a n s J . M o r g e n t h a u , Scientific Man vs. Power Politics (Chicago: Chicago University Press, 1946), p. 223. 6 . Hans J. Morgenthau, “Henry Kissinger, Secretary of State. An Evaluation,” Encounter , November (1974): 61. 7 . Letter to Piero Soderini (January 1512?), in Niccolò Machiavelli, Machiavelli: The Chief Works and Others , trans. Allan Gilbert (New York: Duke University Press, 1989), 2, no. 116, p. 897. 8 . M a x W e b e r , From Max Weber: Essays in Sociology , ed. Hans Gerth and Charles Wright Mills (New York: Oxford University Press, 1946), p. 128, emphasis added. 9 . I b i d . 10 . Jos é Ortega y Gasset, “Miseria y Esplendor de la Traducci ó n,” in Obras Completas (Madrid: Revista de Occidente, 1964), 5:439. For an alternative translation, see Elizabeth Gamble Miller’s trans. in Rainer Schulte and John Buguenet, eds., Theories of Translation. An Anthology of Essays from Dryden to Derrida (Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1992), p. 99. 1 1 . R a y m o n d A r o n , “ J o u r n a l i s t e e t P r o f e s s e u r , ” Revue de l’Universit é de Bruxelles 12, octobre–f é vrier (1959–60): 190. 1 2 . Q u o t e d i n R a y m o n d A r o n , Memorie , trans. Oreste del Buono (Milan: Mondadori, 1984), p. 573. 13 . Bernard Shaw, The Devil’s Discipline (New York: Brentano’s, 1906), p. 70. 14 . “Il y a une possibilité extrê me où l’ironie n’est plus que la pré sence d’une conscience, pr é sence dont le signe est, comme on sait, le sourire”; Robert Klein, La Forme et L’Intelligible. Ecrits sur la Renaissance et l’Art Moderne (Paris: Gallimard, 1970), p. 449. The English edition Form and Meaning (New York: Viking Press, 1979) is a heavily abridged selection of the original French book. Out of 25 essays, 12 are missing, including the above-mentioned passage from Le Th è me du Fou et l’Ironie Humaniste (1963). 1 5 . F r a n c o F o r t i n i , Tutte le Poesie , ed. Luca Lenzini (Milan: Mondadori, 2014), p. 405. 142 ● Notes

Fortune’s Banter 1 . Il Principe , ed. Arthur Burd, introduction by Lord Acton (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1891), chapter 25, p. 358. 2 . [Elsewhere, Machiavelli’s sentence has a slightly different apprecia- tion: “A quaint quantitative estimate of the role of decision within the framework of necessity”; Martin Wight, Four Seminal Thinkers in International Theory . Machiavelli, Grotius, Kant & Mazzini , ed. Gabriele Wight and Brian Porter (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005), pp. 22–3. “We may take this careful statement . . . as earliest attempt at experientially based philosophy of I(nternational) P(olitics)”; Martin Wight, “Fortune and Irony in International Politics,” Chicago, March 13, 1957, MWP 3.] 3 . A l b e r t S o r e l , La Question d’Orient au XVIIIe Siè cle (Paris: Plon 1889), 2nd. ed., p. 99. Cf. p. 77 and note. [“The more one gets older, he often said, the more one is persuaded that His Majesty the Chance makes three-quarters of the work of this miserable universe.”] 4 . De Monarchia , II. 10, as translated by Donald Nicholl, Monarchy and Three Political Letters (London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 1954), p. 53. 5 . Inferno , VII. 73 ff.; cf. Paradiso , XXVIII. Dante’s conception of fortune is anticipated by, and borrowed from, Virgil: Aeneid , III. 375–6. Cf. IX. 107–8. [“He whose wisdom transcends all made the heavens and gave them guides, so that all parts reflect on every part in equal distribu- tion of the light. Just so, He ordained for worldly splendours a general minister and guide who shifts those worthless goods, from time to time, from race to race, from one blood to another beyond the intervention of human wit. One people comes to rule, another languishes, in keeping with her judgment, as secret as a serpent hidden in the grass. Your wisdom cannot stand against her. She foresees, she judges, she maintains her reign, as do the other heavenly powers. Her mutability admits no rest. Necessity compels her to be swift, and frequent are the changes in men’s state. She is reviled by the very ones who most should praise her, blaming and defaming her unjustly. But she is blessed and does not hear them. Happy with the other primal creatures, she turns her sphere, rejoicing in her bliss”; Inferno, VII. 73.] [“The heavenly King supreme thy destiny ordains; ’t is he unfolds the grand vicissitude, which now pursues a course immutable. I will declare of thy large fate a certain bounded part; that fearless thou may’st view the friendly sea, and in Ausonia’s haven at the last find thee a fixed abode. Than this no more the Sister Fates to Helenus unveil, and Juno, Saturn’s daughter, grants no more”; Aeneid , III. 375–6.] [“‘How dare you, mother, endless date demand For vessels molded by a mortal hand? What then is fate? Shall bold Aeneas ride, Of safety certain, on th’ uncertain tide? Yet, what I can, I grant; when, wafted o’er, The chief is landed on the Latian shore, Whatever ships escape the raging storms, At my command shall change their fading Notes ● 143

forms To nymphs divine, and plow the wat’ry way, Like Dotis and the daughters of the sea’. To seal his sacred vow, by Styx he swore, The lake of liquid pitch, the dreary shore, And Phlegethon’s innavigable flood, And the black regions of his brother god. He said; and shook the skies with his imperial nod. And now at length the number’d hours were come, Prefix’d by fate’s irrevocable doom”; Aeneid , IX. 107–8.] 6 . Donoso Cortes, “Lettres politiques sur la situation de la France en 1851 et 1852”, in Oeuvres (Paris: Vaton, 1858), II. 428. [“Moreover, these forecasts and all those of my previous letters can be deceived: all the calculations can be foiled by one of these coups d’ é tat of Providence that common people call strokes of fortune. Everything I announced must happen, according to the natural order of things; but generally what must happen in this way does not happen. There is always a point of pernicious fever, an armed revolt, a bold stroke by an audacious man, a sudden change of opinion, which suddenly destroys the hopes of some, the fears of other, the wisdom of the wise, the ability of the skilled, the prudence of the prudent, and the calculations of all.”] 7 . [ T h e l a s t c h a p t e r s o f R o b e r t H e r r e r a , Donoso Cortes: Cassandra of the Age (Grand Rapids, MI: Eerdmans Publishing, 1995) treat Cortes’s predictions. One of the most famous, and failed, is a forecast of the eventual fusion between socialism and Slavic nationalism. On this figure, see John T. Graham, Donoso Cortes: Utopian Romanticist and Political Realist (Columbia, MO: University of Missouri Press, 1974).] 8. [Edmund Burke, “First Letter on a Regicide Peace (1796),” in The Works of the Right On. Edmund Burke (Boston: John West and O.C. Greenleaf, 1807), 4:312–13.] 9 . [ I b i d . ] 10 . Machiavelli’s knowledge of Polybius is a matter of controversy. On the one hand, Machiavelli nowhere mentions Polybius by name; on the other hand, the Discorsi , book I, chapters 1–15, paraphrase Polybius, book VI, and sometimes reproduce it almost verbatim. On the one hand, Machiavelli probably did not read Greek; on the other hand, though the first five books of Polybius had been translated into Latin, no translation of Book VI is known to have existed at the time the Discorsi were written. See The Discourses of Niccol ò Machiavelli, ed. Leslie J. Walker (London: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1950), II. 289–91; John H. Hexter, “Seyssel, Machiavelli, and Polybius VI: The Mystery of the Missing Translation,” Studies in the Renaissance 56, no. 3 (1956): 75–96. 11 . Polybius, book I, chapter 4. 1 2 . Il Principe , the last sentence of the Dedicatory Epistle and chapter 26. [This is the sentence: “And if your Magnificence from the summit of your greatness will sometimes turn your eyes to these lower regions, you will see how unmeritedly I suffer a great and continued malignity of fortune.” The second reference is Machiavelli’s implicit allusion to Cesare Borgia: “Although lately some spark may have been shown by 144 ● Notes

one, which made us think he was ordained by God for our redemption, nevertheless it was afterwards seen, in the height of his career, that fortune rejected him.”] 13 . Polybius, book XXXI, chapters 23–5. 1 4 . De Fortuna Romanorum , 317–8. [“But swift is the pace of Fortune, bold is her spirit, and most vaunting her hopes; she outstrips Virtue and is close at hand. She does not raise herself in the air on light pinions, nor advance ‘poised on tip-toe above a globe,’ in a precarious and hesitant posture, and then depart from sight. But even as the Spartans say that Aphrodite, as she crossed the Eurotas, put aside her mirrors and orna- ments and her magic girdle, and took a spear and shield, adorning herself to please Lycurgus, even so Fortune, when she had deserted the Persians and Assyrians, had flitted lightly over Macedonia, and had quickly shaken off Alexander, made her way through Egypt and Syria, conveying kingships here and there; and turning about, she would often exalt the Carthaginians. But when she was approaching the Palatine and crossing the Tiber, it appears that she took off her wings, stepped out of her san- dals, and abandoned her untrustworthy and unstable globe.”] 15 . Polybius, book I, chapters 4.4, 58.1; cf. book XXXVIII, chapter 18.8. [“For what gives my work its peculiar quality, and what is most remarkable in the present age, is this. Fortune has guided almost all the affairs of the world in one direction and has forced them to incline toward one and the same end; a historian should likewise bring before his readers under one synoptical view the operations by which she has accomplished her general purpose”; I. 4.4.] [“But Fortune, however like a good umpire, shifted the scene in a remarkable manner and changed the nature of the contest, confining both in a narrower field, where the struggle grew even more desperate”; I. 58.1.] [“For my part I should say that some sort of resourceful and ingenious fortune counteracted the folly and insanity of the leading states men—a power which, though the leaders in their folly took every means and every opportunity to expel her, yet had resolved to leave nothing undone to save Achaea, and like a skilful wrestler adopted the sole device left to her, and that was to bring about the speedy discomfiture and easy defeat of the Greeks, as she in fact did”; XXXVIII. 18.8.] 16 . Polybius, book XXIX, chapter 21. [“It is therefore appropriate to call to mind, often and in earnest, the words of Demetrius of Phalerum. For he, in his treatise on Fortune, wishing to give men a striking instance of her mutability when he comes to deal with the times when Alexander overthrew the Persian empire, speaks as follows: ‘For if you consider not countless years or many generations, but merely these last fifty years, you will read in them the cruelty of Fortune. I ask you, do you think that fifty years ago either the Persians and the Persian king or the Macedonians and the king of Macedon, if some god had foretold the Notes ● 145

future to them, would ever have believed that at the time when we live, the very name of the Persians would have perished utterly—the Persians who were masters of almost the whole world—and that the Macedonians, whose name was formerly almost unknown, would now be the lords of it all? But nevertheless this Fortune, who never compacts with life, who always defeats our reckoning by some novel stroke; she who ever dem- onstrates her power by foiling our expectations, now also, as it seems to me, makes it clear to all men, by endowing the Macedonians with the whole wealth of Persia, that she has but lent them these blessings until she decides to deal differently with them’. And this now happened in the time of Perseus. Surely Demetrius, as if by the mouth of some god, uttered those prophetic words. And I, as I wrote and reflected on the time when the Macedonian monarchy perished, did not think it right to pass over the event without comment, as it was one I witnessed with my own eyes; but I considered it was for me also to say something befitting such an occasion, and recall the words of Demetrius. This utterance of his seems to me to have been more divine than that of a mere man. For nearly a hundred and fifty years ago he uttered the truth about what was to happen afterward.”] 17 . Polybius, book XXXVIII, chapter 21. Plutarch attributes reflections of this kind to the conqueror of Macedon, Aemilius Paulus; Life of Aemilius Paulus , chapter 36. [“But I distrusted Fortune because the current of my affairs ran so smoothly, and now that there was complete immunity and nothing to fear from hostile attacks, it was particularly during my voyage home that I feared the reversal of the Deity’s favour after all my good fortune, since I was bringing home so large a victorious army, such spoils, and captured kings. Nay more, even when I had reached you safely and beheld the city full of delight and gratulation and sacrifices, I was still suspicious of Fortune, knowing that she bestows upon men no great boon that is without alloy or free from divine displeasure. Indeed, my soul was in travail with this fear and could not dismiss it and cease anxiously forecasting the city’s future, until I was smitten with this great misfortune in my own house, and in days consecrated to rejoicing had carried two most noble sons, who alone remained to be my heirs, one after the other to their graves. Now, therefore, I am in no peril of what most concerned me, and am confident, and I think that Fortune will remain constant to our city and do her no harm. For that deity has suffi- ciently used me and my afflictions to satisfy the divine displeasure at our successes, and she makes the hero of the triumph as clear an example of human weakness as the victim of the triumph; except that Perseus, even though conquered, has his children, while Aemilius, though conqueror, has lost his.”] Scipio’s involuntarily repeating some lines of Homer of the fall of Troy, as he watched Carthage burning, is recorded by Appian, book VIII, chapter 132 [“Scipio, beholding this spectacle, is said to have 146 ● Notes

shed tears and publicly lamented the fortune of the enemy. After medi- tating by himself a long time and reflecting on the inevitable fall of cit- ies, nations, and empires, as well as of individuals, upon the fate of the Assyrian, the Median, and afterwards of the great Persian empire, and, most recently of all, of the splendid empire of Macedon, either volun- tarily or otherwise the words of the poet escaped his lips: ‘The day shall come in which our sacred Troy and Priam, and the people over whom spear-baring Priam rules, shall perish all’. Being asked by Polybius in familiar conversation (for Polybius had been his tutor) what he meant by using these words, Polybius says that he did not hesitate frankly to name his own country, for whose fate he feared when he considered the mutability of human affairs. And Polybius wrote this down just as he heard it”; XXXVIII, 21.] 18 . Polybius, book I, chapter 63; book II, chapter 38; book XXXVI, chapter 17; book VI, chapter 2. On Polybius’ concept of Tyche in general see Kurt von Fritz, The Theory of the Mixed Constitution in Antiquity (New York: Columbia University Press, 1954), appendix II. Cf. Frank W. Walbank, A Historical Commentary on Polybius (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1957), pp. 16–26. [“This confirms the assertion I ventured to make at the outset that the progress of the Romans was not due to chance and was not involuntary, as some among the Greeks choose to think, but that by schooling themselves in such vast and perilous enterprises it was perfectly natural that they not only gained the courage to aim at universal dominion, but executed their purpose”; I. 63.] [“How is it, then, that both these two peoples and the rest of the Peloponnesians have consented to change not only their political institutions for those of the Achaeans, but even their name? It is evident that we should not say it is the result of chance, for that is a poor explanation. We must rather seek for a cause, for every event whether probable or improbable must have some cause. The cause here, I believe to be more or less the following. One could not find a political system and principle so favourable to equality and freedom of speech, in a word so sincerely democratic, as that of the Achaean league”; II. 38.] [“For my part, says Polybius, in finding fault with those who ascribe public events and incidents in private life to Fate and Chance, I now wish to state my opinion on this subject as far as it is admissible to do so in a strictly historical work. Now indeed as regards things the causes of which it is impossible or difficult for a mere man to understand, we may perhaps be justified in getting out of the difficulty by setting them down to the action of a god or chance, I mean such things as exceptionally heavy and continuous rain or snow . . . But as for matters the efficient and final cause of which it is possible to discover we should not, I think, put them down to divine action . . . But in cases where it is either impossible or difficult to detect the cause the question is open to doubt”; XXXVI. 17.] [“Now the chief cause of success or the Notes ● 147

reverse in all matters is the form of a state’s constitution; for springing from this, as from a fountain-head, all designs and plans of action not only originate, but reach their consummation”; VI. 2.] 19 . Polybius, book VI, chapter 57. [“That all existing things are subject to decay and change is a truth that scarcely needs proof; for the course of nature is sufficient to force this conviction on us. There being two agen- cies by which every kind of state is liable to decay, the one external and the other a growth of the state itself, we can lay down no fixed rule about the former, but the latter is a regular process.”] 20 . [In the twenty-first century, an anthology gathered together for the first time Machiavelli’s writings on international politics; see Machiavelli on International Relations , ed. Marco Cesa (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2014).] 21 . [In an earlier version the verb is “can” instead of “could.”] 22 . [Fors is the male principle of Chance. Opposite but united in pairs in Fortuna, the female principle, in the formula “Fors Fortuna” is all one deity who embodies both.] 2 3 . C f . C i c e r o , De Legibus , II. [?11]. Plutarch, De Fortuna Romanorum, 10. [“It is right, also, that Intelligence, Piety, Valour, and Fidelity should be formally consecrated; all of whom possess temples which have been publicly dedicated to them at Rome, so that those who cultivate these admirable virtues, as indeed all worthy men do, may think that they have gods themselves seated in their souls. But what is scarcely to be tolerated is, that at Athens they should have raised a temple to Insolence and Impudence . . . For it is the Virtues, and not the Vices, which it is becoming to consecrate. Now there is an ancient altar on the Palatine hill dedicated to Fever, and another on the Esquiline hill sacred to Misfortune, which is detestable, for all things of this kind should be repudiated . . . And, since our minds are supported by the expectation of excellent things, it was not amiss for Calatinus to consecrate Hope. And Fortune may be either this day’s fortune, for she embraces all days, or retrospective fortune, as bringing assistance; and we may worship her as Chance, as presiding over irregular accidents, or under the name of prime genia, from producing”; II. 11.] [“And even the kings who succeeded Numa honoured Fortune as the head and foster-parent of Rome and, as Pindar has it, truly the ‘Prop of the State’ . . . There is, in fact, a shrine of Private Fortune on the Palatine, and the shrine of the Fowler’s Fortune which, even though it be a ridiculous name, yet gives reason for reflexion on metaphorical grounds, as if she attracted far-away objects and held them fast when they come into contact with her. Beside the Mossy Spring, as it is called, there is even yet a temple of Virgin Fortune; and on the Esquiline a shrine of Regardful Fortune. In the Angiportus Longus there is an altar of Fortune of Good Hope; and there is also beside the altar of Venus of the Basket a shrine of the Men’s Fortune. 148 ● Notes

And there are countless other honours and appellations of Fortune, the greater part of which Servius instituted”; 10.] 2 4 . J o h n D r y d e n , The Twenty-ninth Ode of the Third Book of Horace, para- phrased in Pindaric verse, IX, in The Poems of John Dryden , ed. John Sargeaunt (London: Oxford University Press, 1913). 25 . [In 2015, Johns Hopkins University researchers have found that “bad luck” plays a major role in determining most types of cancer, rather than genetics or risky lifestyle. Then, there has been much debate against this notion of biological bad luck in cancer etiology; see Cristian Tomasetti and Bert Vogelstein, “Variation in Cancer Risk among Tissues Can be Explained by the Number of Stem Cell Divisions,” Science 347, no. 6217 (2015): 78–81.] 2 6 . [ P e t r o n i u s , Satyrica , 120.] 2 7 . Republic , 617c. [“And there were another three who sat round about at equal intervals, each one on her throne, the Fates, daughters of Necessity, clad in white vestments with filleted heads, Lachesis, and Clotho, and Atropos, who sang in unison with the music of the Sirens, Lachesis sing- ing the things that were, Clotho the things that are, and Atropos the things that are to be.”] 2 8 . Odes , I. 35, line 17. The figure is so bold that many editors, despite manuscript authority, prefer the reading saeva to serva. Macrobius speaks of Tyche and Ananke as presiding over a child’s birth; Saturnalia , I. 19, ad fin. [“Necessity precedes thee still with hard fierce eyes and heavy tramp: Her hand the nails and wedges fill, the molten lead and stub- born clamp”; I. 35, line 17.] [“The Egyptians also use the caduceus’ sig- nificance to explain people’s horoscope (‘genesis’ it’s called), saying that four gods attend a human being as it’s born, Deity (Daimon ), Chance (Tykhe ), Love (Eros ), and Necessity (Ananke ): the first two they mean to be regarded as the sun and the moon, because the sun, as the source of breath, warmth, and light, is the begetter and guardian of human life and so is believed to the Daimon , or deity, of the one being born; whereas the moon is Tyche, because she is in charge of our bodies, which are buffeted by various chance circumstances. Love is signified by a kiss, Necessity by a knot”; I. 19, ad fin.] 2 9 . Aeneid , VIII. 334; XII. 147. [“Myself, in exile from my fatherland sailing uncharted seas, was guided here by all-disposing Chance and iron laws of Destiny”; VIII. 334.] [So blame not me, but hear, Juturna, what sore grief is thine: while chance and destiny conceded aught of strength to Latium’s cause, I shielded well both Turnus and thy city’s wall; but now I see our youthful champion make his war with fates adverse. The Parcae’s day of doom implacably impends”; XII. 147.] 3 0 . Aeneid , I. 205, VIII. 477; cf. VIII. 533. [“Through chance and change and hazard without end, our goal is Latium; where our destinies beckon to blest abodes, and have ordained that Troy shall rise new-born! Have Notes ● 149

patience all! And bide expectantly that golden day”; I. 205.] [“Yon Tuscan river is my bound. That way Rutulia thrusts us hard and chafes our wall with loud, besieging arms. But I propose to league with thee a numerous array of kings and mighty tribes, which fortune strange now brings to thy defence. Thou comest here because the Fates intend”; VIII. 477.] 3 1 . Aeneid , I. 254–296, X. 111–3, 621–7. [“Smiling reply, the Sire of gods and men, with such a look as clears the skies of storm chastely his daughter kissed, and thus spake on: ‘Let Cytherea cast her fears away! Irrevocably blest the fortunes be of thee and thine. Nor shalt thou fail to see that City, and the proud predestined wall encompassing Lavinium. Thyself shall starward to the heights of heaven bear Aeneas the great- hearted. Nothing swerves my will once uttered. Since such carking cares consume thee, I this hour speak freely forth, and leaf by leaf the book of fate unfold. Thy son in Italy shall wage vast war and, quell its nations wild; his city-wall and sacred laws shall be a mighty bond about his gathered people. Summers three shall Latium call him king; and three times pass the winter o’er Rutulia’s vanquished hills. His heir, Ascanius, now Iulus called (Ilus it was while Ilium’s kingdom stood), full thirty months shall reign, then move the throne from the Lavinian citadel, and build for Alba Longa its well-bastioned wall. Here three full centuries shall Hector’s race have kingly power; till a priestess queen, by Mars conceiving, her twin offspring bear; then Romulus, wolf-nursed and proudly clad in tawny wolf-skin mantle, shall receive the sceptre of his race. He shall uprear and on his Romans his own name bestow. To these I give no bounded times or power, but empire without end. Yea, even my Queen, Juno, who now chastiseth land and sea with her dread frown, will find a wiser way, and at my sovereign side protect and bless the Romans, masters of the whole round world, who, clad in peaceful toga, judge mankind. Such my decree! In lapse of seasons due, the heirs of Ilium’s kings shall bind in chains Mycenae’s glory and Achilles’ tow- ers, and over prostrate Argos sit supreme. Of Trojan stock illustriously sprung, lo, Caesar comes! whose power the ocean bounds, whose fame, the skies. He shall receive the name Iulius nobly bore, great Julius, he. Him to the skies, in Orient trophies dress, thou shalt with smiles receive; and he, like us, shall hear at his own shrines the suppliant vow. Then will the world grow mild; the battle-sound will be forgot; for olden Honor then, with spotless Vesta, and the brothers twain, Remus and Romulus, at strife no more, will publish sacred laws. The dreadful gates whence issueth war, shall with close-jointed steel be barred impregnably; and prisoned there the heaven-offending Fury, throned on swords, and fet- tered by a hundred brazen chains, shall belch vain curses from his lips of gore’”; I. 254–96.] [“Fate yet allows no peace ’twixt Troy and Italy, nor bids your quarrel end. Therefore, what Chance this day to either foe shall bring, whatever hope either may cherish,—the Rutulian cause and 150 ● Notes

Trojan have like favor in my eyes. The destinies of Italy constrain the siege; which for the fault of Troy fulfils an oracle of woe. Yon Rutule host I scatter not. But of his own attempt let each the triumph and the burden bear; for Jove is over all an equal King. The Fates will find the way”; X. 111–13.] [“If for the fated youth thy prayer implores delay and respite of impending doom, if but so far thou bidst me interpose—go—favor Turnus’ flight, and keep him safe in this imperilled hour; I may concede such boon”; X. 621–7.] 3 2 . Anthologia, IX. 181, 183. 3 3 . De Corona, 253–5. [“I attribute good fortune to our city, and so, I observe, does the oracle of Zeus at Dodona; but the present fortune of all mankind I account grievous and distressing. Is there a man living, Greek or barbarian, who has not in these days undergone many evils? I reckon it as part of the good fortune of Athens that she has chosen the noblest policy, and that she is better off than the Greeks who expected prosperity from their betrayal of us. If she has been unsuccessful, if everything has not fallen out as we desired, I regard that as our appointed share in the general ill-fortune of mankind. My personal fortune, or that of any man among you, must, I imagine, be estimated in the light of his private circumstances. That is my view of fortune: a just and correct view, as it seems to me, and, I think, also to you. But he declares that a poor, insig- nificant thing like my individual fortune has been more powerful than the great and good fortune of Athens. Now how is that possible?”] 3 4 . F e d e r i c o C h a b o d , Machiavelli and the Renaissance (London: Bowes & Bowes, 1958), pp. 69–70. 3 5 . Necessit à is an important concept in the Discorsi , but always as a subjec- tive experience of the coercion of events, never as objective causality. 3 6 . L e o S t r a u s s , Thoughts on Machiavelli (Glencoe: Free Press, 1958), p. 214. [Strauss’s thoughts present an elaborate reflection: “She is indeed not a creator and she concentrates entirely on the government of men . . . She certainly is not always malevolent. She certainly is, if not all powerful, at least so powerful that men cannot oppose her designs. The practical consequence is not quietism. As we have seen, the end which Fortuna pursues is unknown, and so are her ways toward that end. Hence, Machiavelli concludes, men ought always to hope, men ought never to give up, no matter what the condition into which Fortuna may have brought them. We need not discuss whether Machiavelli is consistent in drawing this sanguine conclusion from his quasi-theology. His conclusion from his assertion regarding Fortuna is certainly consistent with the conclusion which follows from his assumption regarding the intelligences in the air: man has no reason to fear superhuman beings . . . Fortuna is a part, and not the ruling part, of the whole. The whole is ruled by heaven . . . Heaven leaves room for human causation, for action, for prudence and for art. Fortuna belongs to the same domain to which art and prudence belong. Notes ● 151

Fortuna is thought to be the cause of men’s good or ill fortunes. But if one looks more closely, one sees that in the most important cases ‘the cause of (good) fortune’ is not Fortuna but human virtue and good institutions, i.e., the work of prudence or art”; pp. 214–17.] 3 7 . S e e G e o r g i V . P l e k h a n o v , The Role of the Individual in History (London: Lawrence & Wishart, 1940), p. 43; Selected Essays of J. B. Bury, ed. William H. Temperley (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1930), p. 61; John B. Bury, The Idea of Progress (London: Macmillan, 1920), pp. 303–4. Bury’s argument is criticised by Michael Oakeshott, Modes of Experience (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1933), pp. 133–41. 3 8 . F r a n c e s c o G u i c c i a r d i n i , Storia d’Italia , book VI, chapter 4. [“But alas. How vain and fallacious are the projects of men. The Pope, in the eight of his aspiring hopes, is unexpectedly carried home for dead to the pontifi- cal palace, from vineyard near the Vatican, where he had been at supper, to regale himself in the time of the Summer heats; and immediately after him his son brought along in the same expiring condition. The day following, which was the 18th of August, the Pope’s corps, according to pon- tifical custom, is carried into St. Peter’s Church, all swelled, black, and monstrously frightful, sure marks of poison.”] William H. Woodward, Cesare Borgia (London: Chapman Hall, 1913), pp. 323–4, 330–2. 3 9 . Il Principe , chapter 7, ed. Burd, pp. 226–7. [“If he could not have made Pope him whom he wished, at least the one whom he did not wish would not have been elected. But if he had been in sound health at the death of Alexander, everything would have been different to him. On the day that Julius the Second was elected, he told me that he had thought of everything that might occur at the death of his father, and had provided a remedy for all, except that he had never anticipated that, when the death did happen, he himself would be on the point to die.”] 40 . [Bolingbroke (1658–1751) was an influential Tory politician and secretary of state. He played an important role in diplomacy that led to the Peace of Utrecht but, the year after, the death of Queen Anne and the rise of the Whigs forced him to flee to France.] 4 1 . W i l l i a m H . L e c k y , History of England in the Eighteenth Century, new impression (London: Longmans, 1907), I. 202, no. 3; Correspondence of Jonathan Swift, ed. Francis E. Ball (London: G. Bell, 1910–14), II. 214. Cf. George M. Trevelyan, The Peace and the Protestant Succession (London: Longmans, 1934). 4 2 . Saburov Memoirs, or Bismarck and Russia. Being Fresh Light on the League of the Three Emperors, 1881 , ed. James Y. Simpson (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1929), p. 136. [Ambassador Holbrooke wrote about the “distorting effect of perfect hindsight,” after the Dayton agreement (1995): “My own government experiences over the last thirty-five years have led me to conclude that most accounts of major historical events, 152 ● Notes

including memories, do not convey how the process felt at the time to those participating in it. This derives, in part, from historian’s need to compress immensely complicated and often contradictory events into a coherent narrative whose outcome reader (unlike the participants at the time) already knows”; Richard Holbrooke, To End a War (New York: Modern Library, 1998), p. xvi.] 4 3 . Il Principe , chapter 25, ed. Burd, p. 365. [“For my part I consider that it is better to be adventurous than cautious, because fortune is a woman, and if you wish to keep her under it is necessary to beat and ill-use her; and it is seen that she allows herself to be mastered by the adventurous rather than by those who go to work more coldly. She is, therefore, always, woman-like, a lover of young men, because they are less cautious, more violent, and with more audacity command her.” Chabod wrote a transparent comment on Machiavelli’s method and style: “So we have the plastic imagine of the woman beaten into submission, and the powerful climax that dispels all doubts—by forceful imagery, however, and not by logic. When the author’s enthusiasm runs high the dilemmatic method, the method of syllogism and disputation gives way, even in the matter of style, to a violent upsurging of emotion in which logic is replaced by imagery”; Machiavelli and the Renaissance, pp. 146–7. The image has probably reached its apogee of brutality in Oriani’s version (1908): “Fortune and history are women and they love only the vigor- ous man capable of raping them, who accepts the risks of the adventure to reach to the domination of love”; Andrea Oriani, La Rivolta Ideale (Bologna: Cappelli, 1943), p. 276.] 44 . Barry J. Cork, Rider on a Grey Horse (London: Cassell, 1958), p. 61. 4 5 . L e t t e r t o N i g r a , J a n u a r y 1 8 5 9 , i n Carteggio Cavour-Nigra , ed. R. Commissione editrice (Bologna: Zanichelli, 1926), I. 291, no. 218. [“Dans les temps de crise, il faut dominer la position; c’est qu’on obtient qu’autant qu’on dé ploie une énergie de fer et qu’on sait inspirer une enti è re confiance”; translation from French by Martin Wight.] 46. Conference with his commanders, 23 May 1939, in Trial of the Major War Criminals before the International Military Tribunal (Nuremberg: International Military Tribunal, 1945–6), [missing reference]; Nazi Conspiracy and Aggression (Washington: US Government Printing Office, 1946), VII. 848. 4 7 . W i l l i a m K . H a n c o c k , Ricasoli and the Risorgimento in Tuscany (London: Faber and Gwyer, 1926), pp. 264–5. 4 8 . Tamburlaine the Great, lines 369–70, 2232–8. 49. Speech at Tripoli, 11 April 1926, quoted in Survey of International Affairs 1927 , ed. Arnold J. Toynbee (London: Oxford University Press, 1929), p. 118. 50 . Speech to his commanders, 23 November 1939, in Trial of the Major War Criminals before the International Military Tribunal , XXVI. 328; Nazi Notes ● 153

Conspiracy and Aggression , III. 580. [The same lines are cited in Wight’s “Germany,” in Arnold J. Toynbee and Frederick T. Ashton Gwatin, eds., The World in March 1939 (Oxford: Oxford University Press for the Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1952), p. 347, where he infers that “the making of brutal decisions could become intoxicating, almost an end in itself.”] 51 . [Wight is using almost verbatim Hitler’s words at a speech to his commanders on March 15, 1936: “I go with the assurance of a sleepwalker on the way which Providence dictates.” He quoted this passage in his “Germany,” p. 347, considering that it is “perhaps the most terrifying sentence he ever uttered.”] 52 . Letter to Alexander I, 2 February 1808, in Correspondance de Napol é on Ier , publi é e par ordre de l’Empereur Napol é on III (Paris: Plon, 1864), XVI. 499. [Translation from French by Martin Wight.] 53 . [“Destiny, cynical and cheater.” This was the comment of the fifth Italian president Giuseppe Saragat after the general election on June 7, 1953. Thenceforth the aphorism entered Italian political jargon. Saragat’s party have had a modest result and his party coalition got 49.8 percent of the pool without obtaining the majority bonus system which would have assigned the majority of assembly seats to the winner of 50 percent plus 1 vote.] 5 4 . Corriere della Sera , 17 March 1938. [Italian in the original.] 5 5 . Iliad , XXII. 305. [“Nay, but not without a struggle let me die, neither ingloriously, but in the working of some great deed for the hearing of men that are yet to be.”] Applied by Polybius, book V, chapter 38, to Cleomenes of Sparta. [“Seeing his position and having but poor hopes for the future, Cleomenes decided to make a dash for freedom at any cost, not that he really believed he would attain his object—for he had nothing on his side likely to conduce to success—but rather desiring to die a glorious death without submitting to anything unworthy of the high courage he had ever exhibited, and I suppose that there dwelt in his mind and inspired him those words of the hero which are wont to commend themselves to men of dauntless spirit: ’Tis true I perish, yet I perish great; yet in a mighty deed I shall expire, let future ages hear it, and admire.”] 5 6 . Ad Att. , II. 5; cf. II. 17, XII. 18. [“What, too, will history say of me six hundred years hence? I am much more afraid of that than of the petty gossip of the men of today”; II. 5.] [“Nay, more, whatever van- ity or sneaking love of reputation there is lurking in me—for it is well to know one’s faults—is tickled by a certain pleasurable feeling. For it used to sting me to the heart to think that centuries hence the services of Sampsiceramus to the state would loom larger than my own”; II. 17.] [“To the fullest capacity of such an enlightened age, I am quite resolved to consecrate her memory by every kind of memorial borrowed from the 154 ● Notes

genius of every kind of artist, Greek or Latin. This may perhaps serve to irritate my wound: but I look upon myself as now bound by a kind of vow and promise. And the infinite time during which I shall be non- existent has more influence on me than this brief life, which yet to me seems only too long”; XII. 18.] 57 . [Wight wrote the number of a missing note impossible to track down.] 5 8 . T h o r n t o n W i l d e r , The Ides of March (London: Longmans, 1948), p. 138. Cf. Theodor Mommsen, History of Rome (London: Dent & Sons, 1911), IV. 428: “with him nothing was of value in politics but the living present and the law of reason”. 59. [On the contrary, Garibaldi’s fortune is for the future. “She” has been evoked by the General during his famous speech to the silent crowd in St. Peter’s Square, Rome, July 2, 1849: “Fortune betrayed us today, but she will smile on us tomorrow.”] 60 . [In twenty-first century, this attitude has become part of mainstream social science: “Policy makers create history, and history unfolds in direc- tions that scholars discover and debate.” Henry R. Nau, “Scholarship and Policy-Making: Who Speaks Truth to Whom?,” in Christian Reus- Smit and Duncan Snidal eds., The Oxford Handbook of International Relations (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), p. 640.] 6 1 . F r e d e r i c k A . S i m p s o n , The Rise of Louis Napoleon (London: J. Murray, 1909), p. 233. 6 2 . P r e a m b l e t o t h e Statuto of 20 December 1929, in Michael Oakeshott, Social and Political Doctrines of Contemporary Europe (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1939), p. 171. [“‘I do not know why we are doing this’, said Hitler once, ‘I only know that I must do it. You lose the past and gain the future’”; Martin Wight, “Problems of Mass Democracy,” The Observer, September 23, 1951, p. 7.] 63 . [“In one respect,” Wight wrote elsewhere, “Hitler was unique among the great political adventurers of history. It was the fortune of Cesare Borgia to fulfil a pattern of statecraft already conceived by so potent a thinker as Machiavelli. But Hitler, as befitting the Borgia of universal semi-literacy and popular an age of journalism, was both Cesare and Machiavelli in one; and had expressed very early in his career, under a transparent veil of detachment, the consciousness of being the rare combination of practical politician and political thinker”; Wight, “Germany,” p. 320, emphasis added.] 6 4 . [ C a s t r o ’ s d i c t u m “ La historia me absolverá ” is one of the most striking examples of this process of self-confidence. It is the concluding sentence of the famous speech which he made at the trial for the failed attack on the Moncada barracks in Santiago de Cuba, July 26, 1953; Fidel Castro, History Will Absolve Me (Havana: Editorial de Ciencias Sociales, 1975).] 65 . Letter to Albert G. Hodges, 4 April 1864, in Life & Writings of Abraham Lincoln , ed. Philip van Doren Stern (New York: Modern Library, 1942), Notes ● 155

p. 806; Collected Works of Abraham Lincoln , ed. Roy P. Basler (Rutgers: University Press, 1953), VII. 282. 66 . Speech of 16 April 1869, in Die Politischen Reden des Fü rsten Bismarck (Cotta: Stuttgart, 1892–1905) IV. 192. [Translation from German by Martin Wight. According to Butterfield, Bismarck “was more emphatic on this subject than possibly any other statesman in modern history. He would say: ‘The statesman cannot create the stream of time, he can only navigate upon it’. When people urged him to hasten the unification of Germany he would argue: ‘We can advance the clock but time itself does not move any more quickly for that’. The year before Germany’s unification, he said: ‘An arbitrary and merely wilful interference with the course of history has always resulted only in beating off fruits that were not ripe.’” Butterfield concludes, “Yet in spite of his consistency in this kind of philosophy we should still hold, I think, that even Bismarck did not go far enough in this view—even he tried too hard on occasion to force the hands of Providence”; Herbert Butterfield, Christianity and History (London: G. Bell, 1949), pp. 100–1.] 6 7 . E . g . , C h a r l e s G . R o b e r t s o n , Bismarck (London: Constable, 1929), pp. 128–9. 6 8 . H e r b e r t B u t t e r f i e l d , The Peace Tactics of Napoleon (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1929), p. 274. 6 9 . Il Principe , ed. Burd, chapter 25, pp. 364–5. [“Pope Julius the Second went to work impetuously in all his affairs, and found the times and circumstances conform so well to that line of action that he always met with success. Consider his first enterprise against Bologna, Messer Giovanni Bentivogli being still alive. The Venetians were not agreeable to it, nor was the King of Spain, and he had the enterprise still under discussion with the King of France; nevertheless he personally entered upon the expedition with his accustomed boldness and energy, a move which made Spain and the Venetians stand irresolute and passive, the latter from fear, the former from desire to recover the kingdom of Naples; on the other hand, he drew after him the King of France . . . Therefore Julius with his impetuous action accomplished what no other pontiff with sim- ple human wisdom could have done; for if he had waited in Rome until he could get away, with his plans arranged and everything fixed, as any other pontiff would have done, he would never have succeeded.”] 70 . [The allusion is to the Sack of Rome (1527–8) carried out by the imperial troops of Charles V as the final consequence of Pope Clement’s decision to organize the unsuccessful League of Cognac, the alliance against the Habsburg composed by France and the most powerful Italian states: Milan, Venice, Genoa, and Florence.] 71. [“Gromyko relied on the impatience of his interlocutors to extract opportunities”; Henry Kissinger, “Foreword,” in Andrej Gromyko, Memoirs , trans. Harold Shukman (New York: Doubleday, 1989), p. vii.] 156 ● Notes

7 2 . P l u t a r c h , Caesar , XXXVIII. Cf. Thomas R. Holmes, Caesar’s Conquest of Gaul (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1911), p. 41, n. 3. [“At Apollonia, Caesar conceived the plan of embarking in a twelve-oared boat, without any one’s knowledge, and going over to today’s Brindisi. While the river Ao ü s was carrying the boat down towards the sea, the mouth of the river was quelled by a strong wind so that it was impossible for the master of the boat to force his way along. He therefore ordered the sailors to come about in order to retrace his course. Caesar, perceiving this, disclosed himself, took the master of the boat by the hand, and said the cited words”; XXXVIII.] 7 3 . R e x W a r n e r , Imperial Caesar (London: Collins, 1964), p. 68. 74 . “It was Bismarck’s deepest conviction that true opportunism consisted as much in creating opportunities as in seizing them when occurred”, quoted in Grant Robertson, Bismarck (London: Constable, 1918), pp. 220–1. [“International policy is a fluid elements,” said Bismarck, “which under certain conditions will solidify, but on a change of atmo- sphere reverts to its original condition”; quoted in Martin Wight, Power Politics (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1946), 1978 ed., pp. 127–8.] 7 5 . G e o r g e F . K e n n a n , Realities of American Foreign Policy (London: Oxford University Press, 1954), p. 93. 7 6 . J o h n M o r l e y , Life of William Ewart Gladstone (London: Macmillan, 1903), II. 240–1. [Caustic words are quoted in Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1994), p. 162. “No British prime minister before Gladstone had used such rhetoric . . . To Bismarck, such views (morality, Christian decency, respect for human rights, a critique of the balance of power) were pure anathema. It is not surprising that these two titanic figures cordially detested each other . . . Writing to the German Emperor in 1883, the Iron Chancellor noted: ‘Our task would be easier if in England that race of great statesmen of earlier times who had an understanding of European politics, had not completely died out. With such an incapable politician as Gladstone, who is nothing but a great orator, it is impossible to pursue a policy in which England’s position can be counted upon’. Gladstone’s view of his adver- sary was far more direct, for instance, when he called Bismarck ‘the incarnation of evil.’”] 7 7 . A r t h u r J . W h y t e , The Political Life and Letters of Cavour, 1848–1861 (London: Oxford University Press, 1930), p. 387. For a less favourable statement of the same point; Denis Mack Smith, Cavour and Garibaldi (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1954), pp. 103–4, 131–2, 152, 211, 436. 78 . Pausanias, V. 14. 9. [Cf. Arthur B. Cook, Zeus. A Study in Ancient Religion (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1914–40), II. 859–68. “Next come an altar of Concord, another of Athena, and the altar of the Mother of the gods. Quite close to the entrance to the stadium are two altars; Notes ● 157

one they call the altar of Hermes of the Games, the other the altar of Opportunity. I know that a hymn to Opportunity is one of the poems of Ion of Chios; in the hymn Opportunity is made out to be the youngest child of Zeus”; V. 14. 9.] 7 9 . A b r a h a m C o w l e y , Pyramus and Thisbe , XV. “Fronte capillata, post est occasio calva”, Dionysius Cato, Disticha de Moribus , II. 26. 8 0 . S p e e c h o f [ sic ] a meeting of industrialists, 20 February 1933, in Trial of the Major War Criminals before the International Military Tribunal , XXXV. 46. Cf. The World in March 1939 , ed. Arnold J. Toynbee (Oxford: Oxford University Press for Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1952), pp. 341–2. [Wight’s last reference is to his omitted “Germany,” an essay for Toynbee’s edited book.] 81 . William Shakespeare, Julius Cesar, IV. 3, lines 214–6. 82 . [This handwritten quotation was inserted on the typewritten text without any reference. I have been unable to retrace its origin but Alessandro Zago did it; “Millions Die to Make World Fit to Live In. Lloyd George Talks of Conditions after Peace,” The Chicago Daily Tribune , June 24, 1918, p. 1. Here is an interesting chronicle in the same page: “For several days the Austrian forces, estimated at 40,000 which had won their way across the Piave (river), have been in a perilous situation because of the sudden rising of the river, which tore away most of the permanent bridges . . . and destroyed nearly all of pontoon bridges which they had flung across the stream.] 83 . Address at the Flower Service at the Castle Street Welsh Baptist Chapel, London, 23 June 1918, quoted in The Times , 24 June 1918, a letter to the Manchester Guardian , 2 April 1945, by T. Lloyd Roberts; Cf. Chaim Weizmann, Trial & Error (New York: Harper, 1949), p. 260. [There is a remarkable analogy in Kenneth Pollack’s warmongering comment in “Next Stop Baghdad,” Foreign Affairs 81, no. 2 (2002): 42, written before the invasion of Iraq in 2003: “Today the shock of the September 11 attacks is still fresh and the U.S. government and public are ready to make sacrifices—while the rest of the world recognizes American anger and may be leery of getting on the wrong side of it. The longer the wait before an invasion, the harder it will be to muster domestic and international support for it, even though the reason for invading would have little or nothing to do with Iraq’s connection to terrorism.”] 84. Speech in the Chamber at Boon, 29 April 1954, in Manchester Guardian , 30 April 1954. [The omitted conclusion of the speech is also interesting: “We must be aware that if the process of European unification will fail, the very existence of the continent could falter” (“Wir m ü ssen uns dar ü ber klar sein, da ß , wenn der Zusammenschlu ß der europ ä ischen Vö lker scheitert, die Existenz dieses Kontinents ins Wanken gerä t”).] 85 . Dulles, as reported in James Shepley, “How Dulles Averted War”, Life , 16 January 1956; cf. Coral Bell, Survey of International Affairs 1954 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1954), p. 26 n. 158 ● Notes

86 . Bernard Shaw, Saint Joan. A Chronicle Play in Six Scenes and an Epilogue (Harmondsworth: Penguin Books, 1946), scene III, p. 38. 87 . Letter to Hammond, 25 November 1648, quoted in Thomas Carlyle, Cromwell’s Letters and Speeches (London: Dent, 1861), letter 79. 88 . [The reference is to the battle of Dunbar (1650) between the forces of Cromwell and the Scottish troops of Charles II, which was crucial for the fall of Edinburgh and the outcome of the civil war.] 89 . Letter to the Governor of Edinburgh Castle, 12 September 1650, quoted in Carlyle, Cromwell’s Letters and Speeches , letter 135. 90 . Cf. Friedrich Schiller, Geschichte des Dreissigj ä hrigen Kriegs, book III, ed. Karl Bruel (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1892), ad init. 9 1 . C f . J o h n M o r l e y , Life of Gladstone [ Life of William Ewart Gladstone ] (London: Macmillan, 1903), II. 252, 610, III. 1, 275–6. 9 2 . J o h n N i c o l a y a n d J o h n H a y , Life of Lincoln [ Abraham Lincoln. A History ] (New York: The Century Press, 1890), VI, 155, 160. 9 3 . F r i e d r i c h S c h i l l e r , Wallenstein’s Tod , II. 3, lines 943–5. [The Death of Wallenstein, in Dramatic Works of Friedrich Schiller, trans. Samuel T. Coleridge et al. (London: George Bell & Sons, 1891), p. 187. “It would be difficult to grasp from Wallenstein a moral or political lessons,” wrote Mila. “There you have the reality, naked and real, unsolicited in any way.” Thus, the Schillerian characters “clash in a fight not because one is neces- sarily driven by a good will, and the other by an evil will, but because they relentlessly oppose this inextricable tangle of conflicting and conspiring forces who is life and history.” In the end, “what is lacking on purpose in this black and desolate tragedy is however, more widely and more exactly, the light of an ideal that survives”; Massimo Mila, “Introduzione,” in Friedrich Schiller, Wallenstein (Turin: Einaudi, 2007), p. viii.] 9 4 . Wallenstein’s Tod, III. 9, lines 1666–74. [See the previous note.] 9 5 . J o h n K . G a l b r a i t h , The Great Crash 1929 (London: Penguin, 1961), pp. 95, 164–5. 9 6 . C h a r l e s d e G a u l l e , Mé moires de Guerre: L’Appel (1940–1942) (Paris: Plon, 1954), p. 1. [Translation from French by Martin Wight.] 97 . To confirm the negative statement, see Norman Knox, The Word Irony and Its Context, 1500–1755 (Durham: Duke University Press, 1951); Harold L. Bond, The Literary Art of Edward Gibbon (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1960), chapter 6. 9 8 . J o s e p h d e M a i s t r e , Consid é rations sur la France (Paris: Vrin, 1936), chapter 1. 9 9 . K a r l M a r x , The Class Struggles in France, 1848–1850 (London: Lawrence and Wishart, n.d.), p. 66. [“It is an irony of fate that the Russians, whom I have fought for twenty-five years, and not only in German, but in French and English, have always been my ‘patrons’”; Karl Marx to Ludwig Kugelmann, October 12, 1868, in his Letters to Dr Kugelmann (London: Martin Lawrence, 1934).] Notes ● 159

1 0 0 . T h e N.E.D. [ New English Dictionary ] has three early nineteenth century examples of “irony” in the sense of the irony of fate, from Thirlwall, 1833, Wilkie Collins 1860, and Morley, 1878. 1 0 1 . H e g e l , The Philosophy of Fine Art , translated by F. P. B. Osmaston (London: Bell, 1920), vol. I, introduction, section 3, pp. 88–94. 102 . Henry W. Fowler, A Dictionary of Modern English Usage (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1950), s.v. 1 0 3 . [ R e i n h o l d N i e b u h r , The Irony of American History (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2008). Originally published: Charles Scribner’s Sons, 1952.] 1 0 4 . W i c h k a m S t e e d , The Doom of the Habsburg (London: Arrowsmith, 1937), preface, p. VII. 105 . Edward Grey, Twenty-Five Years 1892–1916 (London: Hodder & Stougthon, 1925), I. 325. 106 . Henry L. Stimson and McGeorge Bundy, On Active Service in Peace and War (London: Hutchinson, n.d.), p. 112. 1 0 7 . N e v i l e H e n d e r s o n , Failure of a Mission: Berlin 1937–1939 (London: Hodder & Stoughton, 1940), pp. VII, 112, 183, 252, 255. Cf. Lewis Namier, Diplomatic Prelude, 1938–1939 (London: Macmillan, 1948), pp. 63, 261 note. 1 0 8 . I s a a c D e u t s c h e r , The Prophet Armed. Trotsky 1879–1921 (London: Oxford University Press, 1954), p. VII. [It should be noted that Deutscher’s volume Ironies of History. Essays on Contemporary Communism was published in 1966. If Wight had worked on his own text after that time, he would probably have made reference to Deutscher’s book.] 109 . Cleanth Brooks, “Irony as a Principle of Structure”, in Morton D. Zabel ed., Literary Opinion in America (New York: Harper, 1951), revised edition, p. 732. 1 1 0 . A r i s t o t l e , Historia Animalium , VIII. 2, 590 b14. [“The crawfish or spiny- lobster can get the better of fishes even of the larger species, though in some of them it occasionally finds more than its match. Thus, this ani- mal is so overmastered and cowed by the octopus that it dies of terror if it become aware of an octopus in the same net with itself. The crawfish can master the conger-eel, for owing to the rough spines of the crawfish the eel cannot slip away and elude its hold. The conger-eel, however, devours the octopus, for owing to the slipperiness of its antagonist the octopus can make nothing of it.”] 111 . [Although he does not mention irony, this is Carr’s position in his cogent argument on causation in history: “The historian distils from the experience of the past, or from so much experience of the past as is accessible to him, that part which he recognizes as amenable to rational explanation and interpretation, and from it draws conclusions which may serve as a guide to action”; Edward H. Carr, What Is History? (London: Macmillan, 1961), p. 98.] 160 ● Notes

112 . Ronald Syme, The Roman Revolution (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1951), p. 495. Cf. his Tacitus (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1958), I. 379–80; “Time would show many a paradox.” 1 1 3 . F r e d e r i c k M . P o w i c k e , King Henry III and the Lord Edward. The Community of the Real in the Third Century (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1947), p. 730. 114 . Charles K. Webster, The Foreign Policy of Palmerston, 1830–1841. Britain, the Liberal Movement and the Eastern Question (London: G. Bell Sons, 1951), I. 211. The words irony and paradox are not in the vocabulary of this austerely positivist historian; it is the more strange that he says “strangely enough”[,] the ex-priest was more disturbed than anyone else at the occupation of Papal territory. 115 . [An earlier version of this line consists of a different metaphor: “If you apply your lens close enough to the surface of an object, you cease to be able to see that the surface has broad undulations. A minute analysis of causal sequences has the effect of removing the kinks in the string.”] 1 1 6 . Contest of Empire and Papacy. Cambridge Medieval History , ed. Zachary N. Brooke et al. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1929), V, p. 319. 1 1 7 . F r a n c i s B a c o n , Advancement of Learning , book II, chapter 10. 118 . [Edward of Woodstock, the eldest son of King Edward III, called the Black Prince, acquired his heraldic symbols of the Prince of Wales feathers from John I King of Bohemia and Count of Luxembourg, who perished in the battle of Crecy on August 26, 1346. Legend relates that in the aftermath of the battle, one of the most important of the Hundred Years’ War, the prince happened upon the body of the dead King John, taking his helmet lined with ostrich feathers. The feathers were adopted by Edward as his own badge; they have been used by every subsequent Prince of Wales since.] 119 . Halford J. Mackinder, Democratic Ideals and Reality (London: Constable & Company, 1919), p. 3. 120 . George F. Kennan, Realities of American Foreign Policy , p. 92. 121 . [This quotation is without any reference in Wight’s papers. Yet it seems true to say that it is the central part of Eliot’s Gerontion , a dramatic monologue first published in 1920, which presents the reflections of an elderly man after World War I; Thomas Eliot, Poems (New York: Alfred Knopf, 1920), pp. 35–45. According to Cleanth Brooks, from which Wight has extracted his definition of irony, “Gerontion has made no commitments, for he has not been willing to limit the complete freedom that he demands for himself; he keeps all options open until death puts an end to options”; see his “ The Waste Land: A Prophetic Document,” in Cleanth Brooks, Community, Religion, and Literature: Essays (Columbia, MO: University of Missouri Press, 1995), p. 104.] Notes ● 161

122 . William Morris, A Dream of John Ball , chapter IV. [The words are from Morris’s narrative voice. He is hearing the speech by the rebel priest John Ball in Kent during the Peasants’ Revolt across England in 1381, which culminated in the march on London, the suppression of revolt, and the execution of the rebel leaders. Ball’s reported preaching should be valued “for the unique insight they provide into the radical Christian egali- tarianism that constituted much of the ideology of the rebels”; Andrew Prescott, Oxford Dictionary of National Biography , digital ed. According to Boos, “A Dream of John Ball asked the obvious painful question: Can there be any hope for future attempts to effect social change, when so many heroic efforts have failed?”; “Alternative Victorian Futures: ‘Historicism,’ Past and Present , and A Dream of John Ball ,” in History and Community: Essays in Victorian Medievalism , ed. Florence S. Boos (New York: Garland Publishing, 1992), p. 26. For Bulla, “the subject of freedom, dignity and equality, and more specifically of the class struggle, is to Morris the standard by which to assess and evaluate human history above all else”; Guido Bulla, “Introduzione,” in William Morris, Un Sogno di John Ball (Cosenza: Lerici, 1980), p. 9. Morris published this prose writing in serial format in the socialist weekly The Commonweal in 1886–7, then in a book (London: Reeves and Turner, 1888). Llewellyn Woodward (1890–1972), quoted by Wight, was a historian and professor of International Relations at Oxford (1944–47). His main project (apart from editing the Documents on British Foreign Policy series) was to write a multivolume work, British Foreign Policy in the Second World War , based on unpublished documents in the Foreign and Cabinet offices. Official objections delayed the project; Oxford Dictionary of National Biography , d i g i t a l e d . ] Bibliography

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Machiavelli, Niccol ò , Il Principe , ed. Arthur Burd, introduction by Lord Acton (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1891). ———, The Discourses of Niccol ò Machiavelli , ed. Leslie J. Walker (London: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1950). Mack Smith, Denis, Cavour and Garibaldi (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1954). Mackinder, Halford J., Democratic Ideals and Reality (London: Constable & Company, 1919). Marx, Karl, The Class Struggles in France, 1848–1850 (London: Lawrence and Wishart, n.d.). Maistre, Joseph de, Consid é rations sur la France (Paris: Vrin, 1936). “Millions Die to Make World Fit to Live In. Lloyd George Talks of Conditions after Peace,” The Chicago Daily Tribune, June 24, 1918, p. 1. Mommsen, Theodor, History of Rome, 4 vols. (London: Dent & Sons, 1911). Morley, John, Life of William Ewart Gladstone , 3 vols. (London: Macmillan, 1903). Morris, William, A Dream of John Ball (n.p., n.d.). Mussolini, Benito, “Le Frontiere sono Sacre. Non si Discutono, si Difendono,” Corriere della Sera , March 17, 1938, p. 1. Namier, Lewis, Diplomatic Prelude, 1938–1939 (London: Macmillan, 1948). Napol é on I, Correspondance de Napol é on Ier, publié e par ordre de l’empereur Napolé on III, 32 vols. (Paris: Plon, 1858–70). Nazi Conspiracy and Aggression, 8 vols. (Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, 1946). Nicholl, Donald, Monarchy and Three Political Letters (London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 1954). Nicolay, John, and John Hay, Abraham Lincoln. A History , 10 vols. (New York: The Century Press, 1890). Oakeshott, Michael, Modes of Experience (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1933). ———, Social and Political Doctrines of Contemporary Europe (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1939). Plekhanov, Georgi V., The Role of the Individual in History (London: Lawrence & Wishart, 1940). Powicke, Frederick M., King Henry III and the Lord Edward. The Community of the Real in the Third Century (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1947). Robertson, Charles G., Bismarck (London: Constable, 1929). Saburov, Peter A., Saburov Memoirs, or Bismarck and Russia. Being Fresh Light on the League of the Three Emperors, 1881 , ed. James Y. Simpson (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1929). Schiller, Friedrich, The Death of Wallenstein , in F. Schiller, Dramatic Works of Friedrich Schiller , trans. Samuel T. Coleridge et al. (London: George Bell & Sons, 1891). ———, Geschichte des Dreissigjä hrigen Kriegs , book III, ed. Karl Bruel (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1892). 176 ● Bibliography

Shakespeare, William, Julius Cesar (n.p., n.d.). Shaw, Bernard, Saint Joan . A Chronicle Play in Six Scenes and an Epilogue (Harmondsworth: Penguin Books, 1946). Shepley, James, “How Dulles Averted War,” Life , January 16, 1956, pp. 70–72. Simpson, Frederick A., The Rise of Louis Napoleon (London: J. Murray, 1909). Sorel, Albert, La Question d’Orient au XVIIIe Siè cle (Paris: Plon, 1889). Steed, Wichkam, The Doom of the Habsburg (London: Arrowsmith, 1937). Stimson, Henry L., and McGeorge Bundy, On Active Service in Peace and War (London: Hutchinson, n.d.). Strauss, Leo, Thoughts on Machiavelli (Glencoe: Free Press, 1958). Swift, Jonathan, Correspondence of Jonathan Swift , ed. Francis E. Ball, 6 vols. (London: G. Bell, 1910–14). Syme, Ronald, The Roman Revolution (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1951). ———, Tacitus , 2 vols. (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1958). Toynbee, Arnold J. (ed.), Survey of International Affairs 1927 (London: Oxford University Press, 1929). Trevelyan, George M., The Peace and the Protestant Succession (London: Longmans, 1934). Trial of the Major War Criminals before the International Military Tribunal , 42 vols. (Nuremberg: International Military Tribunal, 1945–46). Walbank, Frank W., A Historical Commentary on Polybius (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1957). Warner, Rex, Imperial Caesar (London: Collins, 1964). Weizmann, Chaim, Trial & Error (New York: Harper, 1949). Webster, Charles K., The Foreign Policy of Palmerston, 1830–1841. Britain, the Liberal Movement and the Eastern Question , 2 vols. (London: G. Bell Sons, 1951). Wilder, Thornton, The Ides of March (London: Longmans, 1948). Woodward, William H., Cesare Borgia (London: Chapman Hall, 1913). Whyte, Arthur J., The Political Life and Letters of Cavour, 1848–1861 (London: Oxford University Press, 1930).

Bibliography from Martin Wight’s Sources Alighieri, Dante, The Inferno , trans. Robert Hollander and Jean Hollander (New York: Anchor Books, 2002). ———, Paradiso , trans. Robert Hollander and Jean Hollander (New York: Anchor Books, 2007). Appian, Roman History , trans. Horace White (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1982). Aristotle, The Works of Aristotle , trans. D’Arcy Wentworth Thompson (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1910). ———, Poetics , trans. William H. Fyfe (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1932). Bibliography ● 177

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27 aprile 1935, 78 Augustus (Gaius Octavius), 110 Azzam, Abu (Mohammad al-Daher), Academic students of politics, 45, 109 136n13 Achean League, 81–3, 146n18 Acton, Lord (John Acton), 127n39 Bacon, Francis, 111 Adenauer, Konrad, 98 Ball, John, 75, 161n122 Aegospotami, 69 Bastide, Jules, 103 Aeneas, 14, 85 Batista, Fulgencio, 59 Aeneid, 14, 142–3n5 Bentivogli, Giovanni, 155n69 al-Daher, Mohammad (Abu Azzam), Bismarck, Otto von, 88, 93, 96–7, 99, 136n13 138n16, 155n66, 156n74 Alexander I, Emperor of Russia, 153 Bleuler, Eugen, 105 Alexander III of Macedon, the Great, blowback, 139n31 144n14 Bobbio, Norberto, 10, 21 Alexandria, 85 Bologna, 95, 155n69 American Political Science Boos, Florence, 161n122 Association, 48 Borgia, Cesare, Duke of Valentinois, Ananke, 85–6, 148 65, 87, 138n10, 143n12, 154n63 Ancona, 110 Borgia, Rodrigo, Pope Alexander VI, Anne, Queen of Great Britain, 87, 58, 87 151n40 Boudon, Raymond, 48, 119n6, 135n2 Antichrist, 18 brinkmanship, 72, 99 Antietam, battle of, 100 British Library of Political and Appian of Alexandria (Appian Economics Sciences, 11 Alexandrinus), 145n17 Brooks, Cleanth, 160n121 Aphrodite, 144n14 Bruening, Heinrich, 105 Apollonia, 156n72 Bull, Hedley, 3, 8, 23–4, 27, 72, Aristotle, 7, 106 125n19 Aron, Raymond, 8, 38, 77, 121, 136 Bulla, Guido, 161n122 Ascanius, 149n31 Burke, Edmund, 80, 84 astrology, 29, 101–2 Bury, John, 14, 87, 103 Athena, 156n78 Bush, George Walker, 128n48 Athens, 40, 147n23, 150n33 Butterfield, Herbert, 8, 18, 94, 155n66 180 ● Index

Caesar, Gaius Julius, 92, 95–6, Dante (Dante Alighieri), 80 156n72 de Condorcet, Nicolas, 14 Calatinus, Aulus Atilius, 147n23 de Gaulle, Charles, 55, 77, 91, 102 Calipari, Nicola, 124n11 de Maistre, Joseph, 103 Cardinal Rouen (Georges de Ruyter, Michiel, 112 d’Amboise), 60 de Talleyrand, Charles Maurice, 110 Carlyle, Thomas, 111–12 decision, 2, 39, 44, 63–4, 66, 90, 92, Carr, Edward H., 2, 124, 129n2, 94, 120n8, 142n2, 153n50 137n27, 159n111 Della Rovere, Giuliano, Pope Julius II, Castro, Fidel, 59, 154n64 95, 151n39, 155n69 Castro, Raul, 128 Demetrius of Phalerum, 83, 144–5n16 Cavour, Camillo Benso, Count of, Demosthenes, 86 89, 97 destiny, 2, 37, 54–5, 65–7, 82, 85, Chabod, Federico, 152n43 89–91, 93, 101–2, 148n29, 153 chance, 7, 31, 49, 54–5, 58, 76, 79–82, see also fate 84–8, 94, 97, 99, 101, 112, Deutscher, Isaac, 105, 159n108 146n18, 147n22, 149n31 Devetak, Richard, 8 cult of, 66 Devil’s Disciple, 77 and social sciences, 48, 135n2 Discorsi Sopra la Prima Deca di Tito and war, 50 Livio, 39, 61, 143n10, 150n35 Charles V, Holy Roman Emperor, Dollfuss, Engelbert, 90 155n70 Dream of John Ball, A, 161n122 Chernyshevsky, Nikolai Gavrilovich, du Guesclin, Bertrand, 8 129n2 du Plessis, Armand-Jean, Cardinal de Chicago, 11–12, 100 Richelieu, 138n16 Chirac, Jacques, 128n48 Dulles, John F., 107–8, 133n16, choice, 3, 22–4, 28, 36–8, 41, 49, 67 139n31, 157n85 see also decision Dunbar, battle of, 100 Churchill, Winston, 99 Dynasts, The, 103 Cicero, Marcus Tullius, 92 Cioran, Emil, 135n5 Eden, Anthony, 107–8 Clausewitz, Karl von, 9, 51 Edward of Woodstock, the Black Cleomenes III, King of Sparta, 153n55 Prince, 112, 160n118 Clizia, 18 Einstein, Albert, 25, 111 Collingwood, Robin George, 130n13 Elizabeth of Russia (Elizaveta Petrovna), Cold War, 20, 30, 35, 38, 131n19, Empress of Russia, 66 133n13 ethics, 29, 39, 44, 129 Comte, Auguste, 14 Erasmus, Desiderus, 37 Cortes, Juan Donoso, 80, 143n7 Euripides, v, 84 Corvinus, Marcus Valerius, 61 Euro, 14 Cournot, Antoine, 54 European History, 19 Cournot effect, 135n2 Evander, Arcadian king, 85 Crecy, battle of, 160n118 Crick, Bernard, 28 Fascism, 93 Cromwell, Oliver, 66, 100, 158n88 fatalism, 65, 90, 101, 103 Index ● 181 fate, 13, 54–5, 85–9, 99, 101, 104, 112, Hammond, Robert, 158n87 142n5, 146n17, 149n31 Hannibal (Hannibal Barca), 61, 81 and human will, 18, 41, 71, 76–7, Hardy, Thomas, 103 90–1, 96, 124n11 Hector, 91, 149n31 and political science, 31, 48–9, 63, Hellenica, 69, 138n18 66, 87, 103 Henderson, Nevile, 105 see also destiny Herz, John, 22, 38 Fichte, Johann Gottlieb, 104 Hexter, John, 98 Fielding, Henry, 103 Himmler, Heinrich, 130n18 First Punic War, 83 Hiroshima, 20 First World War, 59, 104 Hirschman, Albert, 56 Fischer, Herbert, 19 Historia Animalium, 106 Fisher, Irving, 135 Histories, 81 Fortini, Franco, 78 History of the Peloponnesian War, The, 69 fortuna, 64–7, 81–6, 137n2, 150–1n36 Hitler, Adolf, 20, 37, 55, 65, 67, 93, Fortune of the Romans, On the, 82 106, 130n18, 138n10, 154n62–3 Foulon, Joseph-François, 111 Hodges, Albert, 154n65 Fowler, Henry W., 104 Hodson, William, 89 Frederick II, King of Prussia, 65, 79, 92 Höhepunkt der Macht, 98 freedom, 2, 11, 18–19, 25, 41, 50, 53, Holbrooke, Richard, 127n42, 151n42 57, 63–4, 76, 79, 88, 124n11, Homer, 104, 145 135n5, 160–1n121–2 hope, 75, 140–1n3 French Revolution, 56–7 Horace, 85 Freud, Sigmund, 103 Howard, Michael, 4 Freund, Julien, 134n15 Idea of Progress, The, 14, 103 Gaddafi, Muammar, 59 Institut Universitaire de Hautes Etudes Gaddis, John Lewis, 30 Internationales, 15 game theory, 129n8 Irony of American History, The, 36, Garibaldi, Giuseppe, 154n59 40, 104 Gawad, Gamal Abdel, 136n13 Geneva, 16, 105 James III, King of Scots, 87 German Romanticism, 101–2 Jerusalem, 110–11 Gerontion, 160n121 Jervis, Robert, 56, 127n38, 131n23 Gibbon, Edward, 103 Joan of Arc, 81, 100 Gladstone, William E., 97, 100, John I, King of Bohemia, 112, 160n118 156n76 Jung, Carl Gustav, 103 Gracchus, Tiberius Sempronius, 96 Jupiter, 85 Gramsci, Antonio, 71 Grey, Edward, 104 kairos, 71–2, 97–8 Gromyko, Andrej Andreyevich, 155n71 Kennan, George F., 96, 112 Grotius, Hugo, 134n4 Kennedy, John Fitzgerald, 92 Guevara, Ernesto, el Che, 58 Kepler, Johannes von, 102, 130n16 Gustavus Adolphus, King of Khrushchev, Nikita Sergeyevich, 21, 99 Sweden, 100 Kissinger, Henry, 156n76 182 ● Index

Koestler, Arthur, 30, 136n12 Mein Kampf, 37 Koheleth, 8 Meinecke, Friedrich, 15, 123n3 krisis, 63 Melko, Matthew, 8 Merton, Robert K., 119n3 Lawrence, Thomas, 140n2 Metternich, Klemens von, 99 League of Nations, 40 Mila, Massimo, 158n93 Lebow, Richard, 133n18 Milton, John, 104 Lenin (Vladimir Ilic Uljanov), 24, 70, Momigliano, Arnaldo, 9, 43 140n2 Montesquieu, Charles Louis de Leopardi, Giacomo, 70, 138n18 Secondat, 129n7 Letta, Gianni, 124n11 morality, 39, 68, 156n76 Letter on a Regicide Peace, 80 Morgenthau, Hans Joachim, 12, 16, Lincoln, Abraham, 24, 55, 93, 100, 27–9, 32, 64, 66–7, 76, 126n32, 138n16 127n37, 128n1, 131n19, 138n16 Lloyd George, David, 98 Morin, Edgard, 134n10 London, 110, 112, 161n122 Morris, William, 75, 113, 140n2, London School of Economics and 161n122 Political Science, 35 Mussolini, Benito, 65, 90–1, 140n3 luck, 31, 44, 64, 66–7, 84, 131n19, 148n25 Namier, Lewis, 105 bad, 2, 51, 76, 85 Napoleon, 57, 65, 67, 90, 93–5, 101 Lucretius Carus, Titus, 75 Napoleon III, 93 Lycurgus, 144n14 Nasser, Gamal Abdel, 108 national interest, 128n46 Macaulay, Thomas, 111–12 see also vital interests Macbeth, King of the Scots, 113 necessità, 39 Machiavelli, Niccolò, 10, 39, 53, necessity, 54–5, 64, 85–8, 96, 129n7, 58, 60–1, 64–6, 76, 79, 81–4, 142n2, 148n28 86–8, 95, 124–5n13, 137–8n10, and freedom, 2, 50 143n10, 150n36, 154n63 and tragedy, 35–41 Mackinder, Halford J., 112 “Necessity and Chance in International MacKinnon, Donald, 140 Relations”, 11 Macmillan, Harold, 92 Neptune, 14 Macrobius, Ambrosius Theodosius, Niebuhr, Reinhold, 18, 35–6, 38, 148n28 40–1, 48, 104, 132n3 Mandeville, Bernard, 56 nihilism, 68 Mann, Golo, 121n6 Nkrumah, Kwame, 108, 133n16 Mark Antony (Marcus Antonius November Revolution, 77 Creticus), 110 Marlowe, Christopher, 89, 90 Obama, Barack, 128n46 Martino, Antonio, 124n11 Observer, The, 31, 123n25 Marx, Karl, 49, 103 Octavian (Gaius Octavius Thurinus), 110 Marxian dialectic, 30, 102 Olympia, 97 Masaryk, Thomas, 37 Oriani, Andrea, 152n43 Mearsheimer, John, 49 Ortega y Gasset, José, 77, 141n10 Index ● 183

Paix et Guerre entre les Nations, 8 Power Politics, 21, 30, 131n21 Palladas, 85 Powicke, Frederick, 110 Palmerston, Henry J. T., 3rd Viscount, prevision, 4, 80, 102 99, 110 see also political prediction Pareto, Vilfredo, 16, 51 Prince, The, 60, 79, 95 Paulus, Lucius Aemilius, 145n17 progress, 14, 18–20, 48, 103, 135, 140 peace, 36–7, 41, 98–9, 105, 107–8, progressivism, 15–16, 21–2, 31, 56–7 129n7 Proudhon, Pierre-Joseph, 39 peripeteia, 7, 19, 46, 58, 69, 107, 111–12 providence, 54–5, 66, 80–1, 85–6, as the mark of history, 17 90, 93, 100–2, 124n11, 135–6n5, Martin Wight’s definition of, 106 143n6, 153n51, 155n66 Perseus, 145 prudence, 4, 80, 143n6, 150–1n36 pessimism, 19, 125n19, 140n3 Petronius (Gaius Petronius Arbiter), 85 rationality, 2–3, 5, 16–18, 20, 23, 28, philology, 10 44, 51, 53, 72, 81, 109, 129n2, Pindar, 147n23 139–40n33, 159n111 Pitt, Harry, 140n2 Reagan, Nancy, 30, 130n18 Pitt, William, 91 Reagan, Ronald, 130n18 Planck, Max, 25, 111 realism, 40, 56, 92, 133n18 Plato, 85 Renard, Jules, 20 Plekhanov, Georgi Valentinovich, 87 revolution, 24, 71–2, 77, 81, 103, 106, Plutarch, 82, 85, 145n17 136n13, 140n2 Poincaré, Henri, 15 revolutionism, 89, 129 political opportunism, 70–1, 156n74 Ricasoli, Bettino, 89 kinds of, 94–101 Ritsos, Yiannis, 141n4 and morality, 68 Rome, 81–2, 85, 95–6, 147n23, political prediction, 23, 29–30, 76, 154n59, 155n70 122n19, 126n24, 127n37, 129n9 Romulus, 149 Kenneth Waltz on, 120n19 Roosevelt, Franklin Delano, 66, 91 Martin Wight on, 113 Rossi, Paolo, 135n26 possibility of, 112 value of, 72 Saburov, Peter Alexandrovich, 61, 88 political science, 12, 28, 46, 49, 51 Saint Joan, 100 political voluntarism, 65, 71, 77, 95, Salazar, Antonio de Olivera, 108, 133n16 113–17, 138n16 Saragat, Giuseppe, 153n53 kinds of, 89–91 Sasso, Gennaro, 125n13 Politik als Beruf, 77 Scheuerman, William E., 131n19 Pollack, Kenneth, 157n83 Schiller, Friedrich, 101 Polybius, 81–5, 111, 143n10, 146n18, Schlegel, Friedrich von, 104 153n55 Schlozer, August Ludwig von, 12 Popper, Karl, 123n3 Schmitt, Carl, 121n6 Porter, Brian, 122n21 scientism, 120n18 Potter, Stephen, 99 Scipio, Publius Cornelius, 61, 82–3, power, 1, 23, 25, 68–70, 87, 94 145n17 fortune and, 47–8, 63, 82, 144n14 Second World War, 99 184 ● Index secular history, 17 United Nations Security Council, 59 Seneca, Lucius Annaeus, 63 University College Dublin, 12 Serrati, Giacinto, 71 Seton-Watson, Hugh, 132n10 Varoufakis, Yanis, 124n6 Shakespeare, William, 101, 105 Vico, Giambattista, 44 Shaw, George Bernard, 77, 100 Vidler, Alec, 122n22 Simon, Gérard, 130n16 Vigezzi, Brunello, 123n2 Sisi, Abel Fattah el, 57 Viotti, Maria Ribeiro, 59 Smith, Adam, 56 Virgil (Publius Vergilius Maro), 85, 104 social sciences, 3, 17, 29, 31, 33, 48, virtù, 53, 63, 99, 137n2 101, 119n3 vital interest, 24 Socialist League, 140n2 Voltaire (François-Marie Arouet), 103 Spencer, Herbert, 14 Von Krieg, 72 Spengler, Oswald, 32 St John, Henry, 1st Viscount Wallenstein, 101, 158n93 Bolingbroke, 87, 151n40 Wallenstein, Albrecht von, 30, 65, statecraft, 12, 46, 60, 64, 97, 154n63 101–2, 130n18 Steed, Wickham, 104 war, 20, 41, 49, 59–60, 69, 72, 77, Steinmeier, Frank-Walter, 59 83, 99, 107, 126n32, 127n42, Stevens, Jacqueline, 30 131n19 Stimson, Henry L., 105 and friction, 49–50 Strauss, Leo, 150n36 inevitability of, 50, 112 Study of History, A, 41 against Mussolini, 140n3 Sulla, Lucius Cornelius, 96 and necessity, 35–41 Swift, Jonathan, 87, 103 and progress, 20–1 and rationality, 37, 51, 98, 126n32 Tamburlaine the Great, 89, 91 Warner, Rex, 96 tension, 2, 10, 38, 44–6, 50, 122n17, Washington, George, 138n16 128n43 Weber, Max, 77 as cardinal principle of politics, 24 Weizmann, Chaim, 98 Terence (Publius Terentius Afer), 44 Wendt, Alexander, 125n15 Theodosius I, Roman emperor, 85 Wight, Gabriele, 122n21 Thucydides, 1, 69, 111, 138n18 Williams, Desmond, 12 Times, The, 104 Winkelried, Arnold von, 81 Tojo, Hideki, 37 Wolfers, Arnold, 39 Torquatus, Titus Manlius, 61 Woodward, Llewellyn, 113, 161n122 Toynbee, Arnold, 32, 41, 157n80 tragic in politics, 35–41, 104–9, Xenophon, 138n18 124n11, 129n2, 133n18, 158n93 Trotsky, Leon, 57, 105 Zephyr, 14 Truman, Harry, 99 Zeus, 97, 150n33, 157n78 tyche, 22, 69, 81–6, 146n18, 148n28 Zibaldone, 138n18