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Valuation Premium Due to Growth Certainty 增长确定性带来估值溢价

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Valuation Premium Due to Growth Certainty 增长确定性带来估值溢价 股 票 研 [Table_Title] Company Report: Geely Automobile (00175 HK) Toliver Ma 马守彰 究 (852) 2509 5317 Equity Research 公司报告： 吉利汽车 (00175 HK) [email protected] 5 January 2021 [Table_Summary] Valuation Premium Due to Growth Certainty 增长确定性带来估值溢价 Sales supported by SUV and Lynk & Co. The new Boyue and Binyue [Table_Rank] 公 continued to outperform, with sales having increased yoy by 17.9% and Rating: Buy Upgraded 13.8%, respectively, in Nov. 2020. Further, models that launched in 2020 司 include the ICON, Haoyue, Lynk 05 and Lynk 06, which provided additional 报 评级： 买入 (上调) sales. 告 The new Xingrui sedan showcases Geely's technological capability. 6[Table_Price-18m TP 目标价] : HK$31.00 Company Report Based on CMA, the model is the first ICE that will allow FOTA updates. The Revised from 原目标价: HK$24.14 Company also introduced pay-per-update services in its “OTA Ecological Plan”, an example of the movement towards software driven business model. Share price 股价: HK$26.900 Recent news spurs growth optimism. The Company will resume its plan to combine its business with Volvo after completing its A-share listing. We Stock performance believe the cooperation between Geely and Volvo has been successful since 股价表现 Zhejiang Geely acquired control of Volvo a decade ago, therefore a win-win situation for both companies upon combination. Meanwhile, the capital 100.0 % of return injection in Lifan also brings exciting business opportunity that would overall 80.0 benefit Zhejiang Geely group. 60.0 证 Overall, we believe that Geely is well positioned to capture the transformation 40.0 券 告 of the auto industry, with certainty for future growth, thereby being able to 20.0 receive a premium in its valuation. We increase TP to HK$31.00 and 研 报 0.0 upgrade our investment rating to "Buy". Our TP represents 27.8x 2021 究 究 PER and 23.3x 2022 PER. We believe our valuation is fair and not excessive (20.0) given its growth opportunity, with PEG less than 1. 报 (40.0) 研 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 SUV 和领克支持销售。新的博越和缤越继续表现出色，2020 年 11 月的销量分别同比增 告 长 17.9%和 13.8%。此外，2020 年推出的车型(包括 ICON、豪越、领克 05 和领克 06) HSI Index GEELY AUTOMOBILE 券 Equity Research Report 均带来额外销售。 证 新轿车星瑞展示了吉利的技术实力。基于 CMA 平台架构，该车型是第一个实现 FOTA 更 [Table_PriceChange] [Tab 新的燃油车。公司还在其“OTA 生态计划”中引入了按次自选升级服务，这是向软件驱动 Change in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 商业模式迈进的一个例子。 股价变动 1 个月 3 个月 1 年 le_I Abs. % 26.1 80.4 68.5 汽 近期新闻刺激了对增长的乐观情绪。在完成 A 股上市后，公司将恢复其与沃尔沃业务合并 绝对变动 % nfo1 Rel. % to HS Index 车 的计划。我们相信，自从浙江吉利十年前获得沃尔沃的控制权以来，吉利与沃尔沃之间的 24.0 65.0 72.1 相对恒指变动 % 合作取得了成功，因此两家公司在合并后是双赢局面。同时，注资力帆也带来新的商业机 及 Avg. Share price(HK$) ] 23.3 20.5 15.5 会，将使浙江吉利集团整体受益。 平均股价（港元） 零 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. 总体而言，我们认为吉利在把握汽车行业的转型方面处于有利地位，并有更确定的未来增 部 长，因此能够获得估值溢价。我们上调目标价至 31.00 港元，上调投资评级至“买入”。 件 我们的目标价相当于 27.8 倍 2021 年市盈率和 23.3 倍 2022 年市盈率。考虑到其增长机 行 会，我们认为我们的估值合理并不会过高，市盈增长率小于 1。 业 Automobiles & Components Sector Automobiles & Components Y[Table_ear End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE [Tab 年结Profit ] 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 le_I 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△ %) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2018A 106,595 12,553 1.398 17.5 16.9 5.004 4.7 0.350 1.5 31.6 nfo2 2019A 97,401 8,190 0.902 (35.5) 26.7 5.938 4.0 0.250 1.0 16.5 中] 2020F 93,060 7,162 0.759 (15.9) 30.0 7.296 3.1 0.257 1.1 11.9 2021F 112,686 11,088 0.943 24.2 24.1 11.803 1.9 0.402 1.8 12.9 吉外 2022F 119,209 13,253 1.127 19.5 20.2 12.969 1.8 0.485 2.1 11.9 利运 汽 [Table_BaseData]Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 9,813.1 Major shareholder 大股东 Geely Holding 42.7% 输 Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 263,972.4 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 57.3 车 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 91,815.3 FY21 Net gearing (%) FY21 净负债/股东资金 (%) Net cash 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 (HK$) 27.100 / 10.000 FY21 Est. NAV (HK$) FY21 每股估值（港元） 35.2 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Geely Automobile (00175Geely HK) Automobile See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 6 [Table_PageHeader]Geely Automobile (00175 HK) COMPANY UPDATE ] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ SUV and Lynk & Co. helped capture market share. Geely Automobile’s ("Geely" or the "Company") sales was up 5.1% yoy in Nov. 2020, recording the eighth consecutive month of yoy growth despite having slightly slowed down. In 2020, SUVs continued to be the strongest for most brands, and the same for Geely. The new Boyue and Binyue continued to outperform, with sales having increased yoy by 17.9% and 13.8%, respectively, in Nov. 2020. Further, models that launched this year including the ICON, Haoyue, Lynk 05 and 06 provided additional sales. The contribution from these models compensates for an array of old models from the Emgrand and Vision series SUVs. On the other hand, Lynk & Co is constantly outperforming the market and the 5 January 2021 Company’s average due to new models and strong growth from the Lynk 03 (a sedan model). This has brought Lynk & Co. sales mix to 12.9% in 1-11M2020. Overall, sales was in line with management guidance and our expectations; full-year 2020 should roughly achieve 1,320,000 units. The new Xingrui sedan showcases Geely’s strong technological capability. This model is the first CMA based sedan under the Geely brand, andwas named the "2021 China Car of the Year". The sedan is off to a good start, with 7,000 units in sales in Nov. 2020. The launch of the Xingrui also marks Geely’s entry into the Innovative Geely 4.0 era. New models of Geely’s 4.0 era will be built under advanced modular architectures that allow for leading levels of connectivity and intelligence. The Xingrui will be the first internal combustion engine (ICE) that will be able to perform Firmware-Over-The-Air (FOTA) updates. The Company has already performed a FOTA update since launch, such as optimizing 540° panoramic image function, NVH performance and ] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ adding RPA remote control automatic parking function. Also, Geely also introduced its "OTA Ecological Plan" which will gradually introduce new functions for a fee. This marks the beginning of a software and content driven model for OEMs. Figure-1: Geely Auto’s Sales and Growth Figure-2: Geely Auto’s Sales Mix by Vehicle Type 2018 Geely Lynk & Co Geometry Units 2019 200,000 2020 60% 100% 8.0% 2019 growth 9.4% 12.9% 2020 growth 40% 90% 80% 150,000 20% 70% 0% 60% (00175 HK) 100,000 -20% 50% 92.0% 89.7% -40% 40% 86.3% 50,000 -60% 30% 吉利汽车 20% -80% 10% 0 -100% 0% Jul Oct Apr Jun Jan Mar Feb 2018 2019 1-11M20 Aug Nov Dec Sep May Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Geely Automobile Recent news driving up growth prospects, which includes injecting capital into Chongqing Lifan Holdings (Lifan) and the intention of combining with Volvo. A brief discussion follows: 1. The Company’s parent company, Zhejiang Geely Holding Group (“"Zhejiang Geely") is to acquire 14.7% stake in Lifan. We believe that there are some precious assets in Lifan that is valuable to Zheijiang Geely. This includes 1) factories with production permits for both ICE and electric vehicle engines which is hard to obtain in today’s market, 2) its Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) business which is also currently a key area of development to combat battery charging inconvenience. Having this service would possibly gain favorable government policy treatment. For example, Nio’s car is still entitled to the new energy vehicle (NEV) subsidy despite their car being priced over RMB300,000 because they offer BaaS, and 3) other associated business such as ride-hailing and a payment service business. 2. The Chairman of the Company, Li Shufu, spoke of the plan to merge business of Volvo and Geely again. He claims that talks have resumed with Volvo as soon as the Company completed its listing in Shanghai. Once again, we believe that the Report combination has more positives. Volvo and Geely has been in cooperation and grown in many ways since Zhejiang Geely took control a decade ago. One successful example is the launch of CMA which has been shared among Geely’s own brand Lynk & Co, and Volvo, Polestar. With the industry moving towards a significant transformation, we believe the need to Company consolidate resources would be beneficial in a cost saving perspective, especially that we would expect new development would be deployed in all brands across Zhejiang Geely. We believe that this would create more synergies if the two merge. See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 6 [Table_PageHeader]Geely Automobile (00175 HK) We expect Geely shareholders’ profit to grow by 54.8%/ 19.5% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Growth will be driven by both sales volume and gross margin improvement. Both Geely’s own brand and Lynk & Co.] 1 is expectedr a M t toh deliverg i R strong_ e volumel b a T [ growth in 2021 due to low base and contribution of new models such as the new Xingrui and Lynk 05 and 06.
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