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China Automotive Industry 2021 Outlook: Industry Recovery with Potential Sales Explosion of Smart EV December 2020

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China Automotive Industry 2021 Outlook: Industry Recovery with Potential Sales Explosion of Smart EV December 2020 China Automotive Industry 2021 Outlook: Industry recovery with potential sales explosion of Smart EV December 2020 Lou Jia [email protected] (8621) 2053 7060 Wechat:loujia66 Important disclosures and certifications are located at the back of this material. The disclosures and disclaimer section forms part of this material. China Auto Industry Content Industry Overview (P3-P16) NEV Market (P17-38) Valuation and Stock Recommendation (P39-P44) Company Updates (P45-P56) Appendix-Southbound and Short Position Stake of Key HK-listed Auto Stocks (P57-P64) Important disclosures and certifications are located at the back of this material. The disclosures and disclaimer section forms part of this material. 2 2 China Auto Industry Industry Overview NEV Market Valuation and Stock Recommendation Company Updates Appendix-Southbound and Short Position Stake of Key HK-listed Auto Stocks Important disclosures and certifications are located at the back of this material. The disclosures and disclaimer section forms part of this material. 3 3 pWsU9YqWlZeXkWaVgUiYbYbRbPbRpNrRsQrRjMnMoMlOrQpR8OoPsRNZrRmPvPsPrM China Auto Sales Review-Yearly Breakdown of Sales Volume by Vehicle Type 10M20 YoY Sales (unit) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 10M20 (%) PV 13,757,794 14,472,416 15,495,240 17,927,730 19,707,677 21,210,339 24,376,902 24,718,321 23,709,782 21,444,180 15,495,098 (9.9) Sedan 9,494,269 10,122,426 10,744,740 12,009,704 12,379,769 11,745,433 12,149,861 11,848,001 11,542,077 10,307,645 7,175,698 (13.6) MPV 445,407 497,708 493,396 1,304,053 1,914,255 2,108,866 2,496,529 2,070,655 1,734,637 1,383,684 783,940 (29.5) SUV 1,326,036 1,593,991 2,000,410 2,988,758 4,081,938 6,256,912 9,047,010 10,252,673 9,980,489 9,353,313 7,233,622 (3.1) Minivans 2,492,082 2,258,291 2,256,694 1,625,215 1,331,715 1,099,128 683,502 546,992 452,579 399,538 301,838 (4.6) CV 4,304,142 4,032,698 3,811,165 4,056,349 3,791,324 3,451,263 3,651,273 4,160,583 4,370,795 4,324,497 4,204,188 20.9 Heavy-duty trucks 1,017,433 880,641 636,001 774,104 743,991 550,716 732,919 1,116,851 1,147,884 1,174,252 1,373,708 40.1 Medium-duty trucks 271,766 291,959 290,269 286,839 247,839 200,414 229,063 229,113 177,206 139,338 127,493 10.7 Light trucks 2,025,621 1,880,060 1,842,710 1,908,328 1,662,634 1,558,543 1,539,820 1,718,943 1,894,978 1,883,166 1,799,059 18.5 Mini trucks 546,271 492,176 534,812 527,019 529,942 546,208 606,058 568,444 665,557 653,402 565,736 12.5 Subtotal of trucks 3,861,091 3,544,836 3,303,792 3,496,290 3,184,406 2,855,881 3,107,860 3,633,351 3,885,625 3,850,158 3,865,996 24.1 Large-size buses 68,814 73,812 79,198 81,680 84,252 84,531 90,373 94,080 76,952 74,802 41,719 (23.7) Medium-size buses 89,882 91,577 90,521 90,077 79,612 78,854 99,408 84,899 73,625 66,933 33,565 (30.9) Light buses 284,355 322,473 337,654 388,302 443,054 431,997 353,632 348,253 334,593 332,604 262,908 1.6 Subtotal of buses 443,051 487,862 507,373 560,059 606,918 595,382 543,413 527,232 485,170 474,339 338,192 (6.6) Total 18,061,936 18,505,114 19,306,405 21,984,079 23,499,001 24,661,602 28,028,175 28,878,904 28,080,577 25,768,677 19,699,286 (4.7) Source: CAAM, BOCI Research Important disclosures and certifications are located at the back of this material. The disclosures and disclaimer section forms part of this material. 4 PV Sales Has Ended 7-quarter’s Consecutive YoY Decline in 2Q20 PV Sales has Turned to Positive Growth in 2Q2020 (10,000 units) (%) 3,000 50 40 2,000 30 1,000 20 10 0 0 (10) (1,000) (20) (2,000) (30) (40) (3,000) (50) 1Q12 3Q14 1Q17 3Q19 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 Quarterly PV sales (LHS) YoY growth rate (RHS) YoY Growth Trend of GDP and PV Sales (%) (%) 100 20 75 15 50 10 25 5 0 0 (25) (5) (50) (10) 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 1Q20 3Q20 YoY growth-PV sales (LHS) YoY growth-GDP (RHS) Source: CAAM, National Bureau of Statistics, BOCI Research Important disclosures and certifications are located at the back of this material. The disclosures and disclaimer section forms part of this material. 5 CV Sales Outperformed mainly Driven by HDT Sales in 2020 CV Sales Performed Better than PV since 2017 (10,000 units) (%) 600,000 60 400,000 40 200,000 20 0 0 (200,000) (20) (400,000) (40) (600,000) (60) 2Q12 3Q14 4Q16 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 Series1 Series2 HDT Sales Remained Strong Sales Momentum and Hit Record High in 2020 (unit) (%) 220,000 160 200,000 140 180,000 120 160,000 100 140,000 80 120,000 60 100,000 40 80,000 20 60,000 0 40,000 (20) 20,000 (40) 0 (60) 06/12 08/16 01/07 06/07 11/07 04/08 09/08 02/09 07/09 12/09 05/10 10/10 03/11 08/11 01/12 11/12 04/13 09/13 02/14 07/14 12/14 05/15 10/15 03/16 01/17 06/17 11/17 04/18 09/18 02/19 07/19 12/19 05/20 10/20 Sales volume (LHS) YoY growth (RHS) Source: CAAM, BOCI Research Important disclosures and certifications are located at the back of this material. The disclosures and disclaimer section forms part of this material. 6 Premium Market: Presented Strong Resilience post Pandemic Localised Sales Volume of Major Luxury Brands in China (10M20) Brand Country Sales volume YoY (%) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 10M20 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 10M20 Audi Germany 509,997 536,289 552,000 620,305 620,000 538,743 (0.6) 5.2 2.9 12.4 (0.0) 9.3 Benz Germany 250,188 317,069 422,558 485,006 567,306 494,392 72.0 26.7 33.3 14.8 17.0 5.0 BMW Germany 287,000 310,000 386,500 466,053 545,483 490,778 3.0 8.0 24.7 20.6 17.0 10.5 Cadillac US 53,086 111,532 173,524 228,043 212,506 178,178 33.0 110.1 55.6 31.4 (6.8) 0.1 Volvo Sweden 64,019 70,342 91,052 169,555 161,907 146,741 1,360.0 9.9 29.4 86.2 (4.5) 14.0 JLR UK 62,468 83,888 67,791 53,247 46,225 NA NA 34.3 (19.2) (21.5) 11.3 Infiniti Japan 25,467 26,131 27,766 28,868 35,035 18,554 943.3 2.6 6.3 4.0 21.4 (29.9) Lincoln US 252 30,883 NA NA NA NA NA NA Acura Japan 0 6,842 14,245 9,424 14,786 9,077 NA NA 108.2 (33.8) 56.9 (19.4) DS France 24,451 16,123 6,088 3,867 2,055 62 6.3 (34.1) (62.2) (36.5) (46.9) (97.0) Total 1,214,208 1,456,796 1,757,621 2,078,912 2,212,577 1,953,633 20.6 20.0 20.6 18.3 6.4 8.8 Subtotal of ABB 1,047,185 1,163,358 1,361,058 1,571,364 1,732,789 1,523,913 11.8 11.1 17.0 15.5 10.3 8.2 China Premium Market Sales Volume and Growth Penetration Rate of Major Countries’ Premium (Localised) Market (1,000 units) (%) (%) 2,500 50 30% 27% 26% 2,000 40 25% 1,500 30 20% Word average: 10.8% 1,000 20 14% 14% 15% 12% 12% 11% 500 10 10% 10% 9% 9% 10% 8% 7% 0 0 5% 5% (500) (10) 0% (1,000) (20) Italy USA Spain China Japan Turkey Russia France 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Canada Australia Germany 10M20 South Africa Premium market sales volume (LHS) Premium market YoY (RHS) South Korea PV sales YoY (RHS) United Kingdom Source: Data of various companies, CAAM, Global Insight 11/2020, BOCI Research Important disclosures and certifications are located at the back of this material.
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