Global Challenges Foundation

Global Challenges Quarterly Report Global governance for global citizens new frameworks, new ideas GLOBAL CHALLENGES QUARTERLY REPORT GLOBAL GOVERNANCE FOR GLOBAL CITIZENS – NEW FRAMEWORKS, NEW IDEAS The views expressed in this report are those of the authors. Their statements are not necessarily endorsed by the affiliated organisations or the Global Challenges Foundation.

Quarterly report team Project leader: Carin Ism Project coordinator: Ben Rhee Editor in chief: Julien Leyre Art director: Elinor Hägg Graphic design: Erik Johansson

Contributors Alicia Bárcena Graça Machel Executive Secretary, Economic Commission Chancellor, African Leadership University for Latin America and the Caribbean and University of Cape Town; President, (ECLAC). University of London School of Oriental and African Studies. Helen Clark Former New Zealand Prime Minister, Manjana Milkoreit 1999-2008; former UNDP Administrator, Assistant Professor, Department of Political 2009-2017. Science, Purdue University.

Ghida Fakhry Camilla Schippa Journalist. Director, Institute for Economics & Peace.

Francesco Femia Hu Shuli Co-President, Center for Climate and Editor-in-Chief, Caixin Media. Security. Alexandra Wandel Shiloh Fetzek Director, World Future Council. Senior Fellow for International Security, Center for Climate and Security. Caitlin Werrell Co-President, Center for Climate and Sherri Goodman Security. Senior Advisor for International Security, Center for Climate and Security; former U.S. Deputy Undersecretary of Defense.

Yoriko Kawaguchi Fellow, Meiji Institute for Global Affairs, Meiji University; former Minister for Foreign Affairs, Minister of the Environment, and Member of the House of Councilors, Japan.

2 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 THE GLOBAL CHALLENGES FOUNDATION works to incite deeper under- standing of the global risks that threaten humanity and catalyse ideas to tackle them. Rooted in a scientific analysis of risk, the Foundation brings together the brightest minds from academia, politics, business and civil society to forge transformative approaches to secure a better future for all.

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 3 4 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 Contents

Preface 6 Executive Summary 8 Part 1. Global Institutions 16 1.1 How could the UN be empowered to work more effectively? – Helen Clark 18 1.2 International governance: balancing inclusion and efficiency – Yoriko Kawaguchi 24 1.3 Regional collaboration: a perspective from Latin America and the Caribbean – Alicia Bárcena 30 1.4 Trade as a driver of international governance: China’s Belt and Road initiative – Hu Shuli 38 1.5 Reaping the economic benefits of peace while building peace – Camilla Schippa 44 1.6 Guardians for future generations: towards a sustainable and peaceful world – Alexandra Wandel 50

Part 2. Global Citizens 56 2.1 Global citizens call for global leaders – Ghida Fakhry 58 2.2 Who cares about global governance? – Manjana Milkoreit 66 2.3 Women’s education as a driver of global citizenship – Graça Machel 74 2.4 A responsibility to prepare: governing in an age of unprecedented risks and unprecedented foresight – Sherri Goodman 82 Continuing the conversation 91

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 5 MATS ANDERSSON Vice-chairman, Global Challenges Foundation, Former CEO, Fourth Swedish National Pension Fund, co-founder Portfolio Decarbonization Coalition

6 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 PREFACE

Preface

he Global Challenges Foundation’s institutions. And how we can help these global recent collaboration with ComRes on governance institutions to have meaning for the a global opinion survey found that a ordinary citizens over whose lives they will exert majority of citizens across eight very an immeasurable influence. different countries share a growing Tsense of insecurity in today’s world. They want These are just some of the vital topics explored world leaders to cooperate more effectively to in this report by expert contributors from tackle threats to humanity, particularly weapons Africa, Australasia, China, Europe, Japan, Latin of mass destruction, escalating political conflict America and North America. What unifies them and climate change. is deep thinking about the state of the world The survey revealed strong support for both and global governance today. The lead authors reform of the United Nations and the creation of also all happen to be female, a conscious choice a new global decision-making body to manage made by the Global Challenges Foundation threats to humanity. Clearly, when it comes to to help address the gender imbalance in global governance, the status quo is not working conversations about global governance. and citizens are crying out for new paradigms. As Graça Machel argues in her powerful essay Interestingly, the ComRes survey also showed on the catalytic power of female education, “We that three quarters of people in the countries as global citizens are the sum of our parts, and featured considered themselves “global citizens” it does not make sense that we would continue in addition to citizens of their own countries. to tolerate the marginalisation of those who Global citizenship in this context was defined as are holding up our own sky.” I hope you will “the rights, responsibilities and duties that come enjoy reading our contributors’ ideas for the with being part of the world”. This edition of our constructive approaches urgently needed if we Quarterly Risk Report explores in more depth are to fulfil our destiny as global citizens and what these “rights, responsibilities and duties” surmount the serious risks that threaten all of might look like in this era of global instability humanity. and anxiety — for individuals, for leaders, for businesses and global institutions.

Our contributors take on some of the big questions. These include how today’s global decision-making processes can factor in the needs — and rights — of future generations so that our legacy is not a destructive one. Mats Andersson They look at how, when faced with a global Vice-chairman, Global Challenges Foundation catastrophic risk such as climate change, we can Former CEO, Fourth Swedish National Pension Fund, embed a ‘Responsibility to Prepare’ into global co-founder Portfolio Decarbonization Coalition

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 7 8 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Executive summary Julien Leyre, Global Challenges Foundation.

he first part of this former Minister for Foreign Affairs, report looks at Minister of the Environment, and institutional aspects Member of the House of Councilors of global governance, in Japan. With 193 UN countries exploring the ways holding a legitimate aspiration to be Tthat institutions may better address part of global decision-making, what today’s global challenges. It opens is the best way to balance fairness and with a contribution by Helen Clark, effectiveness in global governance? An former New Zealand Prime Minister important element will be the capacity and former UNDP Administrator, to balance inclusive structures How could the UN be empowered to where all voices can be heard with work more effectively. The United smaller bodies – such the G20 or Nations are seen as a key potential the World Economic Forum – where actor in addressing today’s pressing participation is more limited, but challenges. However, the institution more effective decisions can be made. is seemingly incapable of taking appropriate action to solve ongoing In all parts of the world, a number crises around the world. Positive steps of regional institutions have emerged forward would include improving to better address joint challenges and structures for collective decision- opportunities among neighbouring making, and empowering the UN countries. Alicia Bárcena, Executive Secretary-General to demonstrate Secretary of the UN Economic and exert effective global leadership. Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, reflects on their Our current system of global growing importance in Regional governance has had remarkable collaboration: a perspective from Latin achievements over the past 70 years, America and the Caribbean. Those but in light of new challenges, it is regional institutions demonstrate that showing a number of limitations. nation-states are willing to trade a This is the premise of the second measure of autonomy in exchange for piece, International governance: greater economic integration, better balancing inclusion and efficiency, management of joint projects and by Yoriko Kawaguchi, Fellow at the resources, or a stronger voice on the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs, and global stage. Latin America and the

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 9 10 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 Caribbean have not been left behind, lens on the relationship between with a range of bodies promoting trade and global coordination, with a regional integration and strengthening piece anchored in the long tradition connections with the rest of the world. of articulating global governance and These initiatives are opening new peace. In the aftermath of conflict, channels to overcome the geographic private sector development is critical and regulatory fragmentation of a for peace in the long run. However, region with great untapped potential all too often, business perceives the and, beyond, contribute to the risks in post-conflict settings as too development of a more robust global great, locking many fragile countries governance architecture. in aid dependence and economic instability. Not only could business Trade has long been a driving activity contribute to peace in the force in promoting international right settings, business can also collaboration. In light of current gain significant profits from high- geopolitical changes, what new opportunity post-conflict contexts. forms of economic cooperation will Targeted investments towards guide the future development of identified drivers of peace in fragile international trade and – beyond states and associated governance – of global governance? This is the frameworks could therefore trigger question driving the contribution virtuous cycles where peace and of Hu Shuli, Editor-in-Chief at prosperity mutually reinforce each Caixin media, Trade as a driver of other. international governance: China’s Belt and Road initiative. Indeed, The consequences of today’s major China’s recent Belt and Road challenges will extend far beyond strategy represents an important the conditions affecting the people development for global economic currently alive. Bringing the voice institutions. Unlike the rules-based of future generations to the table is order structured around the WTO, therefore fundamental. The first part this initiative combines diplomatic of this report concludes with a piece coordination with project-based by Alexandra Wandel, Director at the collaboration, investment and World Future Council in Hamburg, infrastructure partnerships, to better Guardians for future generations: foster economic integration across towards a sustainable and peaceful countries. world, which examines institutional developments intended to better In Reaping the economic benefits address this issue. In the recent years, of peace while building peace, Camilla many countries have created new Schippa, Director at the Institute for roles for official figures appointed Economics & Peace offers another explicitly to represent the rights and

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 11 12 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 interests of those yet unborn. Giving make it difficult to prioritize global such ‘guardians for the future’ a place challenges, identify their relevance, in more regional, national and global access decision-making forums, or forums is an important step to make simply bear the emotional burden sure that the major decisions we face associated with issues of existential today genuinely weigh more than the magnitude. It is, therefore, of crucial mere interests of the present. importance that we better educate citizens about global governance, The second part of this report develop new models of engagement, focuses on the emergence of global and more clearly communicate citizenship, considering both ongoing about the role and impact of global challenges to this notion and the new institutions. forms of engagement, responsibility and solidarity that global citizenship Education is the focus of the next entails. Lebanese journalist Ghida contribution, Women’s education Fakhry opens this section with Global as a driver of global citizenship, by citizens call for global leaders. Recently, Graça Machel, Chancellor at the the young and charismatic figures of African Leadership University and Macron and Trudeau have emerged as the University of Cape Town, and a possible new breed of political leader, President of the University of London harnessing their media-savviness to School of Oriental and African set a new vision of world affairs. Their Studies. Over the last three decades, success, however, echoes that of earlier the advent of the Internet age coupled leaders whose global rise to fame with rapid globalization has enabled largely depended on their interaction us to be better connected as global with the media – such as Castro and citizens. Despite gains in connectivity Kennedy – and in spite of international and interconnectedness across appeal to new globalized audiences, borders, societies around the world their political destiny remains are still plagued by fragmentation attached to domestic challenges. and inequity. The well-coordinated action of civil society has become While people around the world pivotal in countering such destructive identify in increasing numbers as forces. One certain solution to ensure global citizens, engagement with a vibrant and engaged citizenry is to global governance remains practically educate women and encourage their non-existent, observes Manjana active civic participation. Milkoreit, Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science, The report finishes with a Purdue University, in Who cares about contribution by Sherri Goodman, global governance. Indeed, a range Senior Advisor for International of structural and cognitive barriers Security at the Center for Climate

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 13 14 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

and Security and former U.S. uncertainty. However, this is Deputy Undersecretary of Defense, balanced by considerable progress co-authored by Caitlin Werrell, in our capacity to foresee those Francesco Femia and Shiloh Fetzek transformations and their possible from the Center for Climate and effects. In this context, it is our Security. A responsibility to prepare: strategic duty to change the way governing in an age of unprecedented that we prepare for the future. We risks and unprecedented foresight must anticipate the challenges of proposes the following argument. those rapid climatic, social and In the face of rapid climatic, social technological transformations, and technological transformations, address associated risks in advance our current world order is of catastrophe, and embrace our facing unprecedented levels of responsibility to prepare.

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 15 PART 1 – GLOBAL INSTITUTIONS

Part 1 Global institutions

16 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 17 HELEN CLARK Helen Clark is a former Prime Minster of New Zealand (1999-2008) and most recently head of the UNDP (2009-2017). She also served as Minister for Conservation, Minister for Housing, Minister for Health, Minister for Labour, Minister for Arts, Culture, and Heritage, Minister in charge of the New Zealand Security Intelligence Service, Minister responsible for the Government Communications Security Bureau, Minister for Ministerial Services and Deputy Prime Minister in the New Zealand Government. She has won many awards for her long career in public life, including the Danish Peace Prize for her work on nuclear disarmament, and is a member of the Club of Madrid and the Council of World Women Leaders.

18 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 1.1. HOW COULD THE UN BE EMPOWERED TO WORK MORE EFFECTIVELY?

1.1. How could the UN be empowered to work more effectively?

Helen Clark, former New Zealand Prime Minister, 1999-2008; former UNDP Administrator, 2009-2017.

The United Nations are seen as a key potential actor in addressing today’s pressing challenges. However, the institution is seemingly incapable of taking appropriate action to solve ongoing crises around the world. What would allow the UN to better face the challenges of this century? Positive steps forward would include improving structures for collective decision-making, and empowering the UN Secretary-General to demonstrate and exert effective global leadership.

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 19 20 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 1.1. HOW COULD THE UN BE EMPOWERED TO WORK MORE EFFECTIVELY?

n a world facing many grave correspondingly underrepresented. challenges across many spheres, This is a long-term source of I people look to the United Nations grievance, and undermines the UN’s to play a key role in resolving them. legitimacy. Yet there is broad appreciation that the UN is failing in vital areas, The requirement for a range not least on peace and security. It is of key agreements to be reached at its best in the development and unanimously is another structural humanitarian spheres, where it works element that is holding our world with and for people and gets results. back. If the climate negotiations But when today’s protracted crises in Bali in 2007, for example, had have driven untold human misery, been able to forge ahead, leaving a including the forced displacement minority of dissenters behind, there of an unprecedented 65.6 million would be much greater confidence people, its seeming inability to act that we can avoid reaching the to end those is an indictment of the tipping point in global warming at organisation. The UN badly needs which irreversible and catastrophic structures and ways of working which change in the climate ecosystem will address the crises of this century, occurs. not those of 1945. In addition to those structural Some of the issues arise from limitations to collective decision- structural constraints. An important making, there are the many one is the veto power on the Security constraints placed on a Secretary Council given to five nations when General’s ability to lead. The the Charter was written in 1945. Secretariat is subjected to micro That prevents effective action on management by Member States peace and security – even when an through various committees of overwhelming majority of the Council the General Assembly. There is itself and of Member States wants little appreciation of the need for it. That veto should be removed, a clear line to be drawn between and replaced by a qualified voting management and governance. system which allows for, at the least, The Secretary General should have decisions to be taken on a near the power to take bold initiatives and unanimous basis. run the organisation as an effective That should be coupled with leader and chief executive must. fairer representation on the Security International organisations need Council. The Security Council is in leaders empowered to act. Yes, there effect the executive board for the UN must be systems of accountability, on peace and security matters, and but when they hamper action Europe is clearly overrepresented, on everything from courageous while other regions are diplomacy for peace to streamlining

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 21 The UN badly needs structures and ways of working which will address the crises of this century, not those of 1945.

22 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 management, as they do now, they Secretary-General to avoid the over- become counterproductive. Worse, caution which is inherent in aiming they can leave a Secretary General to secure a second mandate from the looking weak, indecisive, and day the first one begins. hamstrung because of fear to offend If steps like those I’ve outlined Member States. aren’t taken, then the UN will So, Member States must ease up, continue to diminish in relevance. and give the Secretary General and The world needs an effective UN. The their managers the space to act current limitations on its capacity decisively. Coupled with that, there to lead and act need to be addressed should be only one term served by a urgently.

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 23 YORIKO KAWAGUCHI Yoriko Kawaguchi is a former Japanese diplomat and politician. Her various appointments include that of Special Advisor to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs (2004-2005), Minister for Foreign Affairs (2002-2004) and Minister for Environment (2000-2002). She also served as a Member of the House of Councilors for the Liberal Democratic Party from 2005 to 2013, and as an economist at the World Bank. She is currently Professor at the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs in Tokyo. On July 2008, she was appointed Co-chair of a new International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament.

24 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 1.2. INTERNATIONAL GOVERNANCE: BALANCING INCLUSION AND EFFICIENCY

1.2. International governance: balancing inclusion and efficiency

Yoriko Kawaguchi, Fellow, Meiji Institute for Global Affairs, Meiji University; former Minister for Foreign Affairs, Minister of the Environment, and Member of the House of Councilors, Japan.

Our current system of global governance has had remarkable achievements over the past 70 years, but in light of new challenges, it is showing a number of limitations. With 193 UN countries holding a legitimate aspiration to be part of global decision-making, what is the best way to balance fairness and effectiveness in global governance? An important element will be the capacity to balance inclusive structures where all voices can be heard with smaller bodies – such the G20 or the World Economic Forum – where participation is more limited, but more effective decisions can be made.

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 25 In the face of pressing global threats, what is the best way to achieve a right balance between inclusion and efficiency?

26 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 1.2. INTERNATIONAL GOVERNANCE: BALANCING INCLUSION AND EFFICIENCY

he UN Security Council’s domestic governance system in many resolutions have not countries. In the international setting T succeeded to stop North as well, a democratic governance Korea’s nuclear program. All over order is called for. But what would be the world, refugees have increased, a desirable democratic order when reaching 65 million, of which half countries differ in their security, are children. The Doha round has economic, political and other stalled, resulting in the proliferation capabilities, and so many different of bilateral and regional Free Trade countries need to come together? In Agreements, less efficient than a the face of pressing global threats, multilateral agreement. what is the best way to achieve a Obviously, our international right balance between inclusion and governance order needs mending, efficiency? despite a decent track record. There has not been any worldwide war An important element to consider for the past 70 years, and the post- is the cost of maintaining good war liberal international economic international governance, and who system brought about unprecedented should bear this cost. The UN’s prosperity, raising the income level Peacekeeping Operations need to be of many developing countries, financed and staffed. The same is true including China and India. But with the World Trade Organization. the international community has Good international governance is an outgrown its present governance international public good which, by system, partly due to its very success. definition, tolerates free-riders. If all It is now facing new challenges: the countries free-ride, the system cannot international community has become survive. Worse still, costs have risen more interdependent, new risks are as risks have increased. global in scale, and with progress in For over 70 years after the Second transportation and communication World War, the U.S. bore the largest technologies, risks could spread burden, with contributions from almost instantaneously. other developed countries. Now, circumstances have changed As countries develop, it is natural greatly, and the U.S. has relatively that they aspire to play a part in rule- declined. With this power-shift, the making and have their views reflected responsibility for cost-bearing should in the global governance order. But be shared more broadly by countries the number of UN member countries aspiring to a greater voice in the has increased from 51 to 193 since international decision making. foundation, and this increase brings Fortunately, real world examples new challenges. demonstrate that this has been Democracy is a widely accepted taking place. For example, the Paris

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 27 Climate Agreement stipulated that The G20 is a good example. The responsibility to reduce greenhouse G20, at the summit level, met for the gas emissions - and thus cost sharing first time in 2008, following the global - applies to developing countries financial crisis, to respond and build on the principle of equal but a resilient international community. differentiated responsibilities. Participating countries together represent about 2/3 of the world’s Beyond the question of cost sharing, population, 90% of its GDP, and 80% a good international governance of trade. The 12 summit meetings system needs to be efficient as well, since then have helped leaders because time could be a vital factor understand each other‘s thinking, in dealing with risks. This means, the given guidance on global problems system needs to be both representative and agreed on important action plans, and functional. One potential model some of them with target dates. The would combine a broad structure Hamburg Summit in 2017 covered a where all nations participate, and wide variety of issues, including trade smaller structures allowing certain and investment, excess capacities countries to play a larger role in in the iron and steel industry, global decision-making, but with greater financial systems, climate change responsibility for cost bearing. Various and Africa. Now, major decisions structures already play this second pertaining to world problems must be role. endorsed by the G20 to be viable.

28 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 The G20 is an improvement over the influenced governments and business G7 in terms of inclusiveness. However, to act on clean water supply. work is still needed to create a sense Partnership between governments of joint responsibility and, perhaps, and business will be more important develop agreed principles for action, in the years to come, because risks so that the G20 can be more effective will become more complex, with and action-oriented. This was the case more serious implications on our with the G7, which agreed and acted interconnected world. Governments, on the decommissioning of the former many of which are under serious Soviet nuclear submarines after the financial constraints, cannot demise of the Soviet Union. deal with those singlehandedly. Another exemplary vehicle is Partnership with local governments the World Economic Forum. This and citizens’ groups should also be is a forum for political, business, strengthened for the same reasons. academic and other thought leaders from around the world. It functions The objectives of an international as an incubator for creative thoughts governance system are to achieve and initiatives for actions to orient peace, stability, and prosperity. The governments and business. For most important underlying factor for example, an initiative for water was this is the willingness of the nations created at Davos by the leadership of and peoples to honor governance some international companies, and rules.

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 29 ALICIA BÁRCENA Alicia Bárcena is a biologist who currently serves as the UN Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and, since 2016, on the OECD-DAC’s High Level Panel on the Future of the Development Assistance Committee under the leadership of Mary Robinson. She formerly served as undersecretary of the environment in the federal cabinet of Mexico and is a former director of Mexico’s National Institute of Fisheries. She also served in both UNEP and UNDP, was founding Director of the Earth Council, and served UN Secretary-Generals Kofi Annan (as Chief of Cabinet), and Ban-Ki Moon (as Under-secretary-general of management).

30 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 1.3. REGIONAL COLLABORATION: A PERSPECTIVE FROM LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

1.3. Regional collaboration: a perspective from Latin America and the Caribbean

Alicia Bárcena, Executive Secretary, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).

In all parts of the world, a number of regional institutions have emerged to better address joint challenges and opportunities among neighbouring countries. Their existence demonstrates that nation-states are willing to trade a measure of autonomy in exchange for greater economic integration, better management of joint projects and resources, or a stronger voice on the global stage. Latin America and the Caribbean have not been left behind, with a range of bodies promoting regional integration and strengthening connections with the rest of the world.

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 31 32 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 1.3. REGIONAL COLLABORATION: A PERSPECTIVE FROM LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

n today’s world, regional interest. Perhaps inevitably, overlaps collaboration is essential to in membership and mandate emerge, I fulfill a wide range of tasks. raising questions about the optimal Economic integration is perhaps institutional architecture for regional the most classical example: collaboration. countries forego some degree of autonomy to conduct their trade Latin America and the Caribbean and investment policies in exchange (LAC) has not been absent from for the benefits of a larger regional the worldwide trend towards the market. But regional collaboration development of regional institutions: is also needed to coordinate large- its first economic integration bodies scale, multi-country infrastructure date from the 1960s. In the last projects, to deal with intra-regional decade, two new regional fora – the migration flows, to jointly manage Community of Latin American shared natural resources, to adopt and Caribbean States (CELAC) common approaches to shared and the Union of South American environmental problems, and the list Nations (UNASUR) were created to goes on. Regional coordination is also facilitate political coordination and increasingly necessary to speak with cooperation at the region-wide and a single voice in global debates. South American levels, respectively. It is therefore not surprising that CELAC in particular has evolved over time all regions have developed into the locus for the whole region to institutions tasked with facilitating regularly engage key partners such as cooperation among their members. the European Union and China. Those institutions are very diverse, Especially since the 1990s, new on many counts. Some are truly bodies have emerged to promote regional in their membership, region-to-region dialogue and whereas others have a sub-regional cooperation. This is the case, for scope. Some have a mainly economic example, of the Asia Pacific Economic focus, while others have a wider Cooperation forum (APEC) and mandate including social, health of the Forum for East Asia – Latin or environmental policies, among America Cooperation (FEALAC). others. Some have a supranational Both mechanisms seek to strengthen character, whereas others remain bi-regional ties, with APEC focusing strictly intergovernmental. Some on an economic agenda and involve binding agreements that their FEALAC including other areas like members must legally implement, science, technology, transport and while others mostly provide a the environment. There is much forum for political dialogue and promise in region-to-region dialogue for countries to seek voluntary and cooperation, to strengthen coordination on topics of common economic ties, to learn from each

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 33 34 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 1.3. REGIONAL COLLABORATION: A PERSPECTIVE FROM LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

other’s development experiences standards, accounting for just 16% and to discuss approaches to global of LAC total exports. The reasons issues of common interest such as for this are manifold, including the the implementation of the Agenda region’s vast size (over 20 million 2030 for Sustainable Development square kilometers), its difficult and the Paris Agreement on climate geography, its poor transport change. An innovative experience in infrastructure, the overlapping this regard is China’s “Belt and Road natural resource endowments of Initiative”, which seeks to spread many South American countries prosperity by better connecting Asia and the gravitational pull that the with Africa and Europe. The LAC US economy exerts on Mexico and region, while geographically distant, Central America. also seeks to become a part of this grand vision. How the region can Taken together, these are integrate into, and benefit from, the formidable obstacles to economic Belt and Road framework will be an integration. But they are important topic at the upcoming compounded by the very high meeting of CELAC and China’s fragmentation of the regional Foreign Ministers, to be held in market. Several integration Santiago (Chile) in January 2018. agreements coexist, each with Together with strengthening links their own rules on everything from with other regions, LAC has plenty product standards to government to do in terms of its own regional procurement and the treatment of integration agenda, especially in foreign direct investment. These the economic sphere. The regional regulatory discrepancies impose market is the most conducive high costs on firms (especially SMEs) to the export diversification the exporting to, or investing in, regional region needs so much to develop. markets. They also make it harder For most LAC countries, the region for regional value chains to develop. is where the highest number of Economic integration continues to products is exported, and where be mostly seen with a sub-regional most industrial exports go. It is also lens rather than a truly regional one. the most important market for the Thus the great potential of a regional majority of the region’s exporting market with over 620 million people firms, especially small and medium remains underexploited. enterprises (SMEs). The regional Against this background, action space is the natural locus for the is needed on several fronts. At the development of modern, multi- regional level, coordinated efforts country production networks. are required to carry out ambitious Regrettably, intraregional trade infrastructure projects to expedite remains very low by international the flows of people, ideas, trade and

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 35 There is much promise in region-to-region dialogue and cooperation, to strengthen economic ties, to learn from each other’s development experiences and to discuss approaches to global issues of common interest.

36 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 investment. It is also high time to negotiations that today are not begin building bridges among LAC’s politically feasible. different integration mechanisms. There is much untapped potential This is the key rationale behind the in deepening economic integration so-called “convergence in diversity” within our region. The case for it between the region’s two largest has only grown stronger after the economic integration agreements, end of the commodity supercycle MERCOSUR and the Pacific Alliance. of 2003-2011. A great dose of Through this initiative, a common pragmatism and a long-term vision work agenda was agreed earlier this will be essential to gradually move year to ease trade and investment towards a truly integrated economic flows between the two groupings, space encompassing the whole which together account for over region. Through its almost 70 years 80% of the region’s population of existence, ECLAC has been an and over 90% of its GDP and trade. enthusiastic promoter of that vision, This is a pragmatic approach that for the benefits it will bring our relies on incremental, bottom-up region, and its broader contribution progress rather than on large formal to global governance architecture.

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 37 HU SHULI Hu Shuli is Editor-in-Chief at Caixin Media, and Professor at the School of Communications and Design at Sun Yat-sen University in Guangdong. Recognised as a pioneer of Chinese journalism with many awards to her name, Hu Shuli has focused on global economic governance and China’s role in the new economic order. She has been nominated as one of several top global intellectuals by Foreign Policy Magazine, and one of Forbes most influential people.

38 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 1.4. TRADE AS A DRIVER OF INTERNATIONAL GOVERNANCE: CHINA’S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE

1.4. Trade as a driver of international governance: China’s Belt and Road initiative

Hu Shuli, Editor-in-Chief, Caixin Media.

Trade has long been a driving force in promoting international collaboration. In light of current geopolitical changes, what new forms of economic cooperation will guide the future of international trade and – beyond – of global governance? An important development is China’s recent Belt and Road strategy. Unlike the rules-based order structured around the WTO, this initiative combines diplomatic coordination with project-based collaboration, investment and infrastructure partnerships, to better foster economic integration across countries.

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 39 40 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 1.4. TRADE AS A DRIVER OF INTERNATIONAL GOVERNANCE: CHINA’S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE

rade has always been a driving Partnership agreement, the Belt and force in boosting international Road program does not primarily T relations, be it in Ancient aim to set agreed rules and protocols. Greece, following the discovery of Rather, it harnesses infrastructure the New World by Columbus, or after development as a way to enhance the Industrial Revolution. Its role is connectivity and further boost even more significant in today’s age of trade and investment. It will mainly information technology. involve bilateral agreements between China’s recent “Belt and Road” China and countries along land initiative, which borrows from the idea routes over Asia and Europe, and sea of the ancient Silk Road trade routes, routes around Southeast Asia, the is set to complement and improve Middle East and Africa. current international governance structures, particularly structures The Belt and Road Initiative does supporting international trade. involve coordinated diplomatic efforts. The concept of the Belt and Road Beijing hosted a Belt and Road summit differs from the British Empire’s in May that gathered representatives “imperial preference” system in from more than 100 countries and the early 1900s, or the later U.S.-led international organizations. But no multilateral trading system centering multilateral organization was founded around the World Trade Organization on that occasion – rather, the summit (WTO). The imperial preference was an opportunity to explore joint system favored the constituents of the issues and align understanding among British Empire, while other countries participants. faced a range of restrictions. The Some media reports have WTO treats all members equally, in described the Belt and Road as principle at least, through a framework China’s attempt to build a “tribute of rules and protocols. However, system,” in which the other countries power structures within the WTO pay tribute to the “Chinese empire”, have been evolving in recent years: as as in old times. That is a misreading China rises, U.S. leadership relatively of the initiative. China is not diminishes, causing internal tensions. proposing a new trade system that There are even talks of the WTO dying seeks to knock down existing ones. after the long-stalled Doha Round Rather, the Belt and Road initiative negotiations. So far, however, there is a vital move by China to reignite is no system to replace it. The Trans- global trade after multinational Pacific Partnership agreement, one of value chains have gone through the main candidates for succeeding to profound changes since the Global the WTO, is now struggling after the Financial Crisis, a decade ago. U.S. pulled out. One important driver of the Belt Unlike the WTO and Trans-Pacific and Road initiative is limitations in

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 41 Trade has always been a driving force in boosting international relations. Its role is even more significant in today’s age of information technology.

42 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 the WTO. The WTO is well suited At a time when globalization is to support relationships between facing the strong head winds of developed countries, but limited protectionism, the Belt and Road when it comes to relationships with initiative aims to boost economic and among developing countries. growth and balance trade, while also The Belt and Road provides a more- gradually influencing international flexible path between China and trade relations. For China, the countries along land and sea routes, significance of the Belt and Road anchored in joint investment and initiative lies in the opportunity infrastructure projects. Chinese for further opening up. For the companies going out will also help broader world, it could represent an developing countries accelerate their important step towards a new phase economic development. of global cooperation.

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 43 CAMILLA SCHIPPA Camilla Schippa is a director of the Institute for Economics and Peace in Sydney, which produces the Global Peace Index. She is also a member of the UN’s expert reference group for the Global Consultation on Conflict, Violence and Disaster in the Post-2015 Development Agenda, the Club de Madrid’s Shared Society expert group, and the GCERF Policy, Think & Do Tanks Constituency. She formerly served at the UN Secretariat for over a decade, and currently sits on the Board of Directors of the Centre for Armed Violence Reduction.

44 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 1.5. REAPING THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF PEACE WHILE BUILDING PEACE

1.5. Reaping the economic benefits of peace while building peace

Camilla Schippa, Director, Institute for Economics & Peace.

War and violence extract huge costs from the global economy. In the aftermath of conflict, private sector development is critical for peace in the long run. However, all too often, business perceives the risks in post-conflict settings as too great, locking many fragile countries in aid dependence and economic instability. Not only could business activity build peace in the right settings, business can also gain significant profits from high-opportunity post-conflict contexts. Targeted investments towards identified drivers of peace in fragile states and associated governance frameworks could therefore trigger virtuous cycles where peace and prosperity mutually reinforce each other.

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 45 46 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 1.5. REAPING THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF PEACE WHILE BUILDING PEACE

s highlighted by a recent 2017 show the extent of damage in Comres poll, risks around modern warfare. Not only are private A conflict and war are the ones houses and businesses destroyed, but that concern us the most. Usage critical infrastructure – electricity, of weapons of mass destruction is water supply, telecommunications, ranked as the global risk needing schools and health facilities – have the most urgent response by 62% of been turned to rubble. Yet while the respondents, followed by politically economic impact of war is somewhat motivated violence (57%) and climate understood, the potential benefits change (56%). from violence reduction have This is not surprising as the world traditionally been overlooked. has become less peaceful in the last Redirecting a mere 10% of the global decade. Global conflict and violence economic impact of violence would is at a 25 ­year high, with increases in be enough to address many of the the number of deaths from conflict, most fundamental challenges of our the levels of terrorism, and the time. After all, this would represent emergence of new conflicts that, even $1.43 trillion. Imagine transferring in the most optimistic scenarios, will such an amount to increase Official take years to solve and rebuild from. Development Assistance, and Consequently, the world faces its most multiplying by almost 10 times severe humanitarian crisis since World the funds directed from rich to War II, with over 65 million people now poor countries to achieve the UN’s refugees, asylum seekers or internally Sustainable Development Goals. displaced – equivalent to almost 1% of Alternatively, this amount could the global population. triple the flow of resources invested to In addition to the obvious human address climate change. and social costs, this is having a Most critically, we may be dramatic impact on our economies. conditioned to think that the In 2016 the global economy lost realization of peace will add $14.3 trillion to violence and conflict in further costs to the global economy purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. through peacekeeping budgets and This is equivalent to 12.6% of the world humanitarian assistance. While this Gross Domestic Product (GDP), or is largely true in the short term, there 12.6% of everything the world produces is an overlooked part of the equation and consumes. An enormous amount which involves not just the positive of economic activity goes towards benefits that business activity can creating, containing and dealing with bring to peace, but also the surprising the consequences of violence – with a opportunities for profitable business yearly cost of $1,953 for every person activities in fragile and conflict-affected on the planet. contexts over the medium term. Images of any major Syrian city in Often, opportunities for business in

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 47 In 2016 the global economy lost $14.3 trillion to violence and conflict, equivalent to 12.6% of the world Gross Domestic Product – a yearly cost of $1,953 for every person on the planet.

48 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 1.5. REAPING THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF PEACE WHILE BUILDING PEACE

fragile and less peaceful, post-conflict such as development impact or social contexts are under-appreciated. But impact bonds have a role to play here. post-conflict and fragile states are These facts ought to throw into among the fastest growing economies sharp relief the potential virtuous cycle in the world. More than half the between business and peace. While countries projected to deliver economic there are important circumstances growth of more than 5% in 2018 are where business activity can create the either fragile or extremely fragile. conditions for conflict, as in the case of Research by the World Bank and extractives, there is a counter-narrative the Institute for Economics & Peace that is also important to acknowledge shows that while many post-conflict – business can play a positive role and fragile states carry higher levels for societal peacefulness and reap of risk, the rate of return on capital is significant financial returns. on-average three times higher than the global average. Interestingly, Improving governance and the data suggests that the risk premium business environment go hand in many of these countries may be in hand. Business can improve overpriced. According to the World based on government action to Bank’s Enterprise Business Survey, provide regulatory certainty and average business losses to crime were macroeconomic stability, control US$15,957 in very high peace countries corruption, and protect property compared to US$9,478 in very low and rights. These factors have important US$7,921 in low peace countries. systemic and societal benefit for other Policymakers should encourage drivers of peace. Realizing this virtuous key financial institutions to address cycle may be the key to lowering the these market failures where they $14.3 trillion yearly economic losses exist, and potentially incentivize from violence and to building long investment in key countries in order to term peace, all the while boosting demonstrate the potential benefits to business profits – a tantalizing win-win other investors. Financial instruments scenario.

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 49 ALEXANDRA WANDEL Alexandra Wandel is Director and Vice-Chair of the Management Board of the World Future Council. The World Future Council consists of 50 respected personalities from around the globe. They represent governments, parliaments, the arts, civil society, academia and the business world. Together they form a voice for the rights of future generations. The World Future Council seeks to pass on a healthy planet and just societies to our children and grandchildren, and does this through in-depth research, capacity-building and knowledge transfer of future just policy solutions. More about these initiatives can be found at www.futurejustice.org.

50 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 1.6. GUARDIANS FOR FUTURE GENERATIONS: TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE AND PEACEFUL WORLD

1.6. Guardians for future generations: towards a sustainable and peaceful world

Alexandra Wandel, Director, World Future Council.

The consequences of today’s major challenges will extend far beyond the conditions affecting the people currently alive. Bringing the voice of future generations to the table is therefore fundamental. Many countries are already making steps in this direction, creating new roles for official figures appointed explicitly to represent the rights and interests of those yet unborn. Giving such ‘guardians for the future’ a place in more regional, national and global forums is an important step to make sure that the major decisions we face today genuinely weigh more than the mere interests of the present.

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 51 52 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 1.6. GUARDIANS FOR FUTURE GENERATIONS: TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE AND PEACEFUL WORLD

limate change, nuclear threats as 2007. The office has established and the destruction of healthy a direct link between the interests C ecosystems are all alarming of future generations and basic signs that humanity is living at the constitutional rights, such as the expense of future generations. Yet right to a healthy environment generations to be born cannot stand and general well-being. A Future up for their rights. It is therefore our Generations Commissioner, acting duty and responsibility to ensure the as a guardian for the interests of well-being of both present and future future generations, was established generations. in Wales as part of the landmark Since 1946, the international Well-being of Future Generations community has marked the Act in 2015. The Commissioner need to recognize the interests of works across the public bodies of future generations in numerous Wales to help implement seven international treaties and well-being goals – to improve lives conventions, most recently in the today, and tomorrow. On behalf of Paris Climate Agreement and in the Auditor General of Canada, the the 2030 Agenda for sustainable Commissioner of the Environment development. At a national level, and Sustainable Development over twenty constitutions enshrine provides parliamentarians with the needs of future generations. Yet, objective, independent analysis and short-term interests often continue recommendations on the federal to take priority over long-term needs. government’s efforts to protect the Despite our best intentions, our environment and foster sustainable decisions – or lack of them – continue development. These three offices to threaten the lives of those in the form part of the Network of future. Institutions for Future Generations, Bringing the voice of future an international collaboration of generations to the negotiating table is similar offices counting 9 members. fundamental. Additional, innovative Other initiatives include an and far reaching measures that go Ombudsman for Children in Norway beyond pure rhetoric are needed if we and a proposed Ombudsman for are to truly deliver our commitments Mother Earth in Bolivia, a former to future generations. Commissioner for Future Generations in Israel, as well as Commissioners for A number of countries have already Environment and Sustainability in developed mechanisms to recognize general (Australian Capital Territory, future generations. The need for an Canada and New Zealand), and a Ombudsman for Future Generations Committee for the Future working was recognized and accepted by within the Finnish Parliament. the Hungarian Parliament as early As a way to systematically grow on

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 53 Bringing the voice of future generations to the negotiating table is fundamental.

54 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 1.6. GUARDIANS FOR FUTURE GENERATIONS: TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE AND PEACEFUL WORLD

these initiatives, the World Future Generations‘, set a convincing Council is proposing to establish a case for action on implementing new type of public figure: Guardians intergenerational justice. The report for Future Generations. Acting as proposes a High Commissioner for advocates for the common interests Future Generations as its primary of present and future generations, proposal. The role would act as these Guardians could help to an advocate, offering support and introduce a long-term perspective advice where requested, undertake into policy making. They would research and foster expertise on work as a catalyst for sustainable policy practices, while interacting development implementation and with Member States, UN entities, bring checks and balances to political and others. Current UN organs and institutions. agencies, including the High Level These would be appointed Political Forum which provides an at global, national and local institutional home for the SDGs, levels. The guardian would work could benefit from additional, alongside government, either as innovative tools to fully understand a parliamentary commissioner, a and overcome some of the complex legal ombudsperson, a trustee or an challenges of our time. auditor, as best fits each governance As we already live well beyond structure. They would provide advice, the carrying capacity of the earth, analysis, policy recommendations a fundamental change is urgently and facilitate collaboration across needed if lives and livelihoods are the separate pillars of government to be maintained and cultivated. to overcome short-term, single issue But our democracies have become thinking. Implementation of the a dictatorship of the present, with Sustainable Development Goals no-one representing the interests of would be one area of their focus. future generations. Our ancestors thought differently, the most famous As well as seeking to establish example being the Native American Guardians for Future Generations principle that the impact of any at national and regional levels, the decision on the 7th generation to World Future Council focused efforts come had to be taken into account. to secure a UN Commissioner or Establishing guardians for future Guardian for Future Generations. generations is not a new idea: rather, The 2013 UN Secretary-General it marks the return of a longstanding report, ’Intergenerational principle to help build a safe, Solidarity and the Needs of Future sustainable and shared future for all.

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 55 PART 2 – GLOBAL CITIZENS

Part 2 Global citizens

56 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 57 GHIDA FAKHRY Ghida Fakhry is an international broadcast journalist and U.S.-based contributor to the Huffington Post. She writes about international affairs and U.S. foreign policy and is a regular moderator for high-level events, including the UN’s Alliance of Civilizations and most recently the WB-IMF Spring meetings 2017. She was previously senior news and programs presenter for Aljazeera English.

58 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 2.1. GLOBAL CITIZENS CALL FOR GLOBAL LEADERS

2.1. Global citizens call for global leaders

Ghida Fakhry, journalist.

In today’s globalized world, is a new global citizenry seeking global leaders? Recently, the young and charismatic figures of Macron and Trudeau have emerged as a possible new breed of political leader, harnessing their media-savviness to set a new vision of world affairs. Their success, however, echoes that of earlier leaders whose global rise to fame largely de- pended on their interaction with the media – such as Castro and Kennedy – and in spite of international appeal to new globalized audiences, their political destiny remains attached to domestic challenges.

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 59 60 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 2.1. GLOBAL CITIZENS CALL FOR GLOBAL LEADERS

ince the collapse of the Soviet underpinnings of liberal democracy. Union and the nominal end of Is the advent of a globalized world S the Cold War, a new term has also producing global(ized) political entered the political and journalistic leaders, which the media often refer lexicons: globalization, a new norm to as ‘world leaders’? of international relations, heralding a modern, post-national era in which Evidently, one could argue that the Nation-State, by then barely as the world is not properly unified, a century old political paradigm, there are therefore no world leaders, would be supplanted by a new an idiom typically used in relation political arrangement. But with its to leaders of large or powerful air of democratizing international nations that leaves a neo-imperial relations, its recognition of economic aftertaste; for world leaders are, in interdependence, and a common the mainstream western dominated consensus for a shared humanity, media landscape, western leaders, is globalization the new model of with the exceptions of Chinese, international and, eventually, supra- Russian and, maybe, Brazilian national relations? Or will it remain or South African Heads of State. the apanage of an imperialistic Notwithstanding his influence on political, economic and cultural international affairs and worldwide organization of the world, dominated name recognition, it is not clear that by old and new powers or groupings? Fidel Castro was ever called a world leader. And yet, during his era, as More recently, globalization has today, there was a palpable thirst for seen the emergence of new political true global political leaders, whose forces: popular movements of global aura transcends national frontiers citizenry seeking to countervail this and political spaces; even more so new trend, identified as another nowadays, not solely because of the imperialistic endeavor. So much so telecommunication revolution(s), but that G8 summit meetings often grab also in view of a new consciousness headlines not by what is discussed that the planet faces global perils that among ‘world leaders’, but by the call for global stewardship. activism of anti-G8 demonstrators. With climate change, with the The normative implications of foray of artificial intelligence and globalization are unmistakable — robotization threatening our very from commerce agreements, free- notion of work, and with terrorism, a trade zones and interlinked financial serious epiphenomenon alas fueled markets to new geopolitical alliances by sensationalist media coverage and potent social media networks, and fanned by politicians, world globalization is also shaking up leaders simply cannot eschew global liberal political systems and some challenges.

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 61 62 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 2.1. GLOBAL CITIZENS CALL FOR GLOBAL LEADERS

In today’s globalized world, is share common features: youthful, the global citizenry seeking global bold, telegenic, nonconformist; but so leaders? Probably yes, but with the were John F. Kennedy or Fidel Castro caveat that because of the latest half a century ago. Then as today, media revolution, today’s global the media’s fascination with and leaders can spring out of virtually coruscating effect on those political nowhere almost overnight. And figures is such that, one could evidently, the media, new and argue, they ‘make’ those figures. Of traditional, much more than course, the contrarian argument political parties, are the vector (or is that the same media produced a even engineer) of a new breed of septuagenerian President Trump political leaders with, possibly, global in the United States, elected on an destinies. autarkic, protectionist platform. If one could extrapolate from the emergence on their national Notwithstanding their opposed political scene, and thereafter on worldview, Macron and Trump, the global stage, of Canada’s Prime more than Trudeau, have one Minister Justin Trudeau and France’s striking feature in common – President Emanuel Macron, one both have, singlehandedly and could argue that a new breed of overnight, shattered the heretofore young, dynamic and communications incontrovertible role of traditional savvy political leaders is on the rise. political parties: Trump took They are tapping into the power of hostage the Grand Old Party the media, in all of its innovative (Republican) which may not survive and powerful forms, to counter his presidency; Macron literally the re-emergence of an old form of pulverized France’s Fifth Republic insular breed of political leaders. political parties from the left and Setting a new vision of world affairs, right. Whereas Trump, the billionaire they have set their sights on a wider real estate mogul and reality TV star and more responsive audience; they enjoyed household name recognition appeal to a large swath of the world’s prior to launching his presidential disillusioned citizens, using their bid, Macron was an unknown, minor media savviness to project a brighter political figure two years before and more optimistic future on the his election. In a mere 10 months, global stage. Their audience has circumventing traditional political been largely receptive: they are the parties, he revolutionized French Facebook and Twitter generations, politics. forces of global engagement, who Because of their extraordinary share a common sense of belonging political feat, both Macron and to some sort of supra-national Trump must be internalizing their community. Macron and Trudeau victories in messianic terms; the

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 63 In today’s globalized world, is the global citizenry seeking global leaders?

64 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 2.1. GLOBAL CITIZENS CALL FOR GLOBAL LEADERS

win of David versus Goliath. And home have already reached historical because of their nations’ place in lows. Promoting an image of global the world, both see themselves as leadership may flatter their national global leaders. But whether or not pride, and even appeal to some of they will appeal to citizenries beyond the world’s global citizens, but it their national borders – globalists or is unlikely to help them deal with isolationists – both must know that their domestic challenges. Even as if they do not produce results for new leaders reach a global audience their own citizens, their fall will be as and exert worldwide influence, all rapid as their meteoric rise to power. politics may still be local - even in No matter how far their media reach the era of globalization, Facebook may be, their approval ratings at and Twitter.

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 65 MANJANA MILKOREIT Manjana Milkoreit is Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at Purdue University. Her research integrates international relations scholarship and cognitive theory to study actor motivations and policy design in global climate change politics and diplomacy. Previously, she was Postdoctoral Research Fellow at Arizona State University’s Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability, where she led the Imagination and Climate Futures Initiative. She is the author of Mindmade Politics: the Cognitive Roots of International Climate Governance (The MIT Press 2017).

66 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 2.2. WHO CARES ABOUT GLOBAL GOVERNANCE?

2.2. Who cares about global governance?

Manjana Milkoreit, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Purdue University.

While people around the world identify in increasing num- bers as global citizens, engagement with global governance remains practically non-existent. What could be done so that people care more? A range of structural and cognitive barri- ers make it difficult to prioritize global challenges, identify their relevance, access decision-making forums, or simply bear the emotional burden associated with issues of existen- tial magnitude. It is, therefore, of crucial importance that we better educate citizens about global governance, develop new models of engagement, and more clearly communicate about the role and impact of global institutions.

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 67 68 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 2.2. WHO CARES ABOUT GLOBAL GOVERNANCE?

magine a world without global of global NGOs. More specifically, institutions: no United Nations to there is almost no constructive I solve international disputes, no engagement, where citizens shape Non-proliferation Treaty to prevent and influence the development of nuclear war, no Montreal Protocol global institutions and policies. to fix ozone depletion. How would The most obvious and important your life be different then? Could you reason for this disengagement is afford a personal computer, the shoes simply lack of knowledge. Most you wear, or exotic fruit, without the people go through life without World Trade Organization? Do you knowing what the IMF is or what know someone whose life might have the Montreal Protocol does. Public ended without UNICEF or the World education rarely touches upon Health Organization? ‘International Organizations’. The According to a survey conducted same is true of most news reporting. in 2017 on behalf of the Global But even if people are made aware Challenges Foundation, many of complex global problems, people consider themselves global such as climate change, and the citizens. Many also perceive the corresponding global institutions, world as increasingly globalized and four additional obstacles hinder increasingly insecure. While they global citizenship engagement. have confidence in global institutions to work on their behalf, citizen (1) Priorities. All political engagement with these institutions is engagement takes time and energy. practically non-existent. Why is that? How much of it can you dedicate to Scholarship suggests that participating in global institutions, citizens become interested in particularly if you also want to global institutions for two reasons be politically engaged at local or only. When a global economic national levels? While surveys show institution such as the World Trade that people are concerned with Organization negatively affects their global issues, there are often more livelihoods, citizens will take to pressing things in their daily life. the streets, rejecting international This challenge is exacerbated for interference with their lives. The people who struggle to make ends opposite occurs during existential meet, worry about paying bills or crises, when people in war-torn tend to sick kids. countries or experiencing natural disasters look to international (2) Relevance. Political engagement organizations for help. Beyond these thrives when people get fired up moments of immediate and personal for a particular cause. But the link distress, citizen engagement with between a global issue, the relevant global politics is limited to a handful organization, and a person’s life are

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 69 Better forms of communication could break emotional barriers that currently stand in the way of greater citizen engagement with global institutions.

70 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 2.2. WHO CARES ABOUT GLOBAL GOVERNANCE?

often hard to understand. Questions to care requires emotion to play in. such as ‘How does the Non- Mobilizing emotions can be positive Proliferation-Treaty protect me if (excitement, hope) or negative North Korea sends a missile my way?’ (anger, hatred), but they need to be are abstract and far removed from present for people to get engaged. daily concerns. Global organizations These emotions are present when a often find it challenging to directly problem touches a person’s deepest communicate with citizens, as they beliefs about justice and fairness. lack the budget and expertise for such The experience of moral outrage outreach. National governments can over the unjust killing of people or exacerbate this situation by taking the reckless destruction of nature for credit for benefits such as trade, open profit can be turned into engagement borders, or environmental protection, with global institutions. and scapegoating global actors when Achieving broad public things go wrong or policies fail. engagement with global institutions will require overcoming these (3) Access. Despite efforts to improve structural, cognitive, and emotional citizen engagement, international barriers. There are several organizations are generally hard to potentially fruitful ways forward. access. Attending meetings is often First, governments, learning impossible unless you are part of institutions, and the media need an accredited NGO lucky enough to to step up education about global receive one of the limited ‘observer’ institutions to create the necessary slots. Even if you get this far, level of public awareness. Second, opportunities to influence the process international organizations need are basically non-existent. The best new ways to involve citizens and mode of action here might be lobbying enable access to global governance your own government, which has a processes. Finally, all of us need seat at the negotiation table. to think about new ways of communicating the importance of (4) Emotional Resistance. Finally, if global institutions for the survival, you overcome these obstacles, your health, and wellbeing of every mind creates yet another. It tends person on the planet. Better forms of to keep negative and threatening communication, including through information at bay, especially narrative and images, could not only when it implies a potentially create awareness and interest, but existential threat. This ‘distancing’ also break emotional barriers that is a self-protection mechanism currently stand in the way of greater that makes all engagement with citizen engagement with global global issues challenging. More institutions. generally, the shift from awareness On an increasingly connected

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 71 72 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 2.1. GLOBAL CITIZENS CALL FOR GLOBAL LEADERS

planet, where the severity and entail, global institutions that are urgency of global challenges responsive to the concerns of the are increasing, deeper public global public would be better able to engagement with global institutions achieve their mission and serve their is necessary to ensure that the global constituency. Meaningful ever-growing task of global public participation would increase governance is not left to a small the transparency and legitimacy of elite of bureaucrats, transnational global policy-making, facilitating the corporations, and scientists. work of global institutions. Finally, Democratizing global governance joining a global-scale political requires mechanisms that allow discourse would go a long way diverse voices from around the towards developing a shared identity world to be heard and considered for humanity, what many consider in global policy-making. Despite a key step towards a more peaceful the practical challenges this would and sustainable world.

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 73 GRAÇA MACHEL Graça Machel is an African stateswoman whose decades long professional and public life is rooted in Mozambique’s struggle for self-rule and international advocacy for women and children’s rights. Machel sits on a large number of international boards and advisory groups, with a particular focus on education and the rights of women and children. She is a founding member of The Elders, and the Chancellor of the University of Cape Town, Chancellor of the African Leadership University and the President of SOAS. She founded and serves as President of the Foundation for Community Development and the Zizile Institute for Child Development. She is also Founder and Board Chair of the Graça Machel Trust.

74 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 2.3. WOMEN’S EDUCATION AS A DRIVER OF GLOBAL CITIZENSHIP

2.3. Women’s education as a driver of global citizenship

Graça Machel, Chancellor, African Leadership University and University of Cape Town; President, University of London School of Oriental and African Studies.

Over the last three decades, the advent of the Internet age coupled with rapid globalization has enabled us to be better connected as global citizens. Despite gains in connectivity and interconnectedness across borders, societies around the world are still plagued by fragmentation and inequity. The well-coordinated action of civil society has become pivotal in countering such destructive forces. One certain solution to ensure a vibrant and engaged citizenry is to educate women and encourage their active civic participation.

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 75 76 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 2.3. WOMEN’S EDUCATION AS A DRIVER OF GLOBAL CITIZENSHIP

he year 1990 was perhaps world’s researchers being women, the beginning of the UNESCO reports that a closer look T interconnected world as we at the data exposes some surprising know it. It was when Tim Berners- exceptions. For example, in Bolivia, Lee launched the world wide web, women account for 63% researchers, that panoptic network of networks compared to France with a rate of 26% that brought the global community or Ethiopia at 8%. We must encourage closer than ever before. Quickly girls and young women to explore becoming one of the most visible STEM subjects and support their forces of globalization, it has removed aspirations to pursue careers in these barriers of communication and technical fields if we want women to fostered connections between people play a role in their governance. unhindered by geography. It has formed for us the modern Forum Access to education, in the most Romanum, a virtual and far-reaching holistic sense possible, must be any platform, where voices of agreement society’s imperative. If ‘women carry and opposition mingle freely and a half the sky’ then education allows space where society evolves. women and girls to be full citizens, However, as this giant leap for and enables their communities mankind was being made, over 600 to reach their highest potential. million of the world’s women had Education equips women to fully never been to school. Even before utilize their talents in political, this new technological world came economic and social spheres, and into being, millions were already opens doors to the global community excluded from its tangible and virtual where they can take center stage. realms. A well-educated female collective, however, is necessary Education provides awareness to the advancement of any society, of civic responsibilities and rights, especially in this tech age. While which then enables citizens to see it there is a considerable gender as their duty to exercise these rights. imbalance in STEM fields, there are This sense of civic mindedness increasing numbers of women in and ownership over one’s political these fields exercising their civic fate have perhaps never been more duty and finding solutions to global important than now. In the complex challenges. Female scientists are world we find ourselves in today, developing vaccines and women tech forces of hate and intolerance are coders are creating technologies that galvanizing. The keys to challenging are changing the world in which we this tide of divisive, destructive live. While we know women make isolationism can be found in the up a minority of the world’s research powerful fruits of education and civic community, with only 30% of the participation.

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 77 The keys to challenging the tide of divisive, destructive isolationism can be found in the powerful fruits of education and civic participation.

78 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 2.3. WOMEN’S EDUCATION AS A DRIVER OF GLOBAL CITIZENSHIP

We have seen this power most at the helm is not enough; the other recently unleashed in March 2017 critical role of education is to prepare where millions of women took to women to be the leaders their nations the streets in over 600 rallies in 60 require. Beyond occupying leadership countries in defence of women’s positions, a calibrated education in rights. This unprecedented ethical leadership is just as important. galvanization of women across The African Leadership University the globe demonstrates how (ALU) is an innovative model of commanding they can be when higher education that is preparing equipped with the connectivity the African continent’s leaders of and moral imperative to become today and tomorrow. They employ a active citizens. When women unique pedagogy to empower leaders come together as change agents, that will be prominent in global and it becomes impossible for them to national organizations as well as at go unrecognized in the political the grassroots, inspiring creative and discourse of the day or marginalized positive change in both formal and in the development of their societies. informal settings. Part and parcel of ethical, civic This is not just theory. There is minded education is the task of evidence of how powerful the tools connecting to a global citizenry. If the of education and civic participation genius of the Internet is in its global are in empowering women to hold series of interconnected networks, leaders to account and becoming imagine the revolution that could leaders in their own right. In Rwanda, occur if women organized into for example, where female literacy international ‘networks of networks’ rates actually surpass that of their themselves. male counterparts, we have seen women dominate in the nation’s There is power in networks. At the governing structures. In fact, in Graça Machel Trust, our approach 2016, this small East African nation to women’s empowerment is to was the world leader in that regard, establish and strengthen networks having 64% of its national legislature that drive the advancement of women comprised of women. In a fantastic and increase their participation example of a society’s ability to and visibility in key sectors of regenerate and reconstitute itself, society. Based on the belief that Rwandese women are claiming their development is hinged on the right to sit where the decisions are sustained participation of women made and shaping the policies, plans in socio-economic spheres at all and strategies for their futures and levels and across sectors, we have those of generations to come. 5 networks operating across the But women simply being present African continent which aim to

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amplify female voices throughout building a global civil society that society at large. We build networks, is vibrant and free. They are also underpinned by a philosophy of one of the biggest proponents citizen engagement at the country of the advancement of women level that cascade upwards to the internationally. In fact, 66% of their sub-regional and continental levels. staff is comprised of women and Subtly, all of these networks are many of the organizations within galvanizing into a movement for the their alliance are women-led. social and economic transformation Literally, they are an example of of Africa. women leading the charge in building Well organized networks have a global movement, not only for the reach to shape development themselves, but for humanity as a agendas on multiple levels – national, whole. regional, continental and global. We as global citizens are the sum of For example, CIVICUS, the World our parts, and it does not make sense Alliance for Citizen Participation, is that we would continue to tolerate a network of international partners the marginalization of those who are and organizations that work towards holding up our own sky.

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 81 SHERRI GOODMAN Sherri Goodman is a Senior Advisor for International Security with the Center for Climate and Security, a member of its Advisory Board and former U.S. Deputy Undersecretary of Defense (Environmental Security).

82 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 2.4. A RESPONSIBILITY TO PREPARE: GOVERNING IN AN AGE OF UNPRECEDENTED RISKS AND UNPRECEDENTED FORESIGHT 2.4. A responsibility to prepare: governing in an age of unprecedented risks and unprecedented foresight

Sherri Goodman, Senior Advisor for International Security, Center for Climate and Security; former U.S. Deputy Undersecretary of Defense. Caitlin Werrell & Francesco Femia, Co-Presidents, Center for Climate and Security. Shiloh Fetzek, Senior Fellow for International Security, Center for Climate and Security.

In the face of rapid climatic, social and technological transformations, our current world order is facing unprecedented levels of uncertainty. However, this is balanced by considerable progress in our capacity to foresee those transformations and their possible effects. In this context, it is our strategic duty to change the way that we prepare for the future. We must anticipate the challenges of those rapid climatic, social and technological transformations, address associated risks in advance of catastrophe, and embrace our responsibility to prepare.

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he current world order brings responsibility to build a resilient together sovereign nation- global system against a more reliably T states as participants in a web foreseeable future, while also creating of international and regional security a buffer for those risks that we still institutions. This current world order cannot imagine. A failure to meet this is experiencing great uncertainty in the responsibility could significantly strain face of rapid climatic, technological the viability of state sovereignty and and social change, as well as a growing the international system built on it. capacity to reduce uncertainty by more This responsibility builds on hard- accurately foreseeing unprecedented won lessons from the Responsibility changes. A main feature of the 21st to Protect doctrine for preventing and century is the ability to harness responding to mass atrocities, which scientific and technological tools to lays out means of using mediation, better predict, monitor, and prepare early warning systems, economic for a range of plausible future sanctions and, as a last resort, UN scenarios. However, heightened Security Council-authorized use predictive capacity does not, by itself, of force, when civilian populations lead to preparedness. The leaders of are at risk of mass atrocities. A nation-states, and of the institutions Responsibility to Prepare requires that underwrite international security, a reform of existing governance must have compelling rationales institutions to ensure that critical, for preventing and responding to nontraditional risks are anticipated, these risks in a responsible fashion analyzed and addressed robustly – rationales that can help them and rapidly by intergovernmental transcend local political and economic security institutions and the security pressures. Unprecedented phenomena establishments of participating with potential for global disruption, nations. climate change in particular, present A Responsibility to Prepare agenda one such rationale. should be developed and adopted by all nations, while adhering to the In the face of rapid climate change, overarching principle of “climate- as well as other social, demographic, proofing” security institutions at and technological changes, nation- international, regional and national states and intergovernmental security levels – essentially incorporating institutions have a responsibility to use climate resilience into the their enhanced predictive capacities international security architecture. to manage and minimize risks. This As climate change constitutes a combination of “unprecedented foreseeable international security risk” and “unprecedented foresight” challenge, and multiplies other creates the strategic imperative security threats across the world, an for a Responsibility to Prepare – a international agenda that addresses

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 85 The window of opportunity to strengthen global governance in a significantly altered geostrategic environment is narrowing.

86 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 2.4. A RESPONSIBILITY TO PREPARE: GOVERNING IN AN AGE OF UNPRECEDENTED RISKS AND UNPRECEDENTED FORESIGHT

its security implications can help the UN system, for example, the inform governance reforms for establishment of a senior Climate managing other related risks. These Security position, reporting directly reforms should include the following to the UN Secretary General and principles: communicating regularly to the UN Security Council, would go a long • Mainstreaming. Mainstreaming way toward ensuring that these climate security could range from issues were heard at the highest including climate considerations levels. in security and intelligence decision processes within security • Integration. Climate change affects institutions to consistently holding the whole security landscape, forums on the subject. At the UN and cannot be siloed. Integration Security Council, for example, could involve embedding climate a commitment to regular Arria and security analysts across issue Formula dialogues or other informal siloes within governments and modes of conversation, as well as intergovernmental institutions, or annual resolutions for addressing creating interagency structures to critical climate and security facilitate such integration. hotspots (such as the recent Lake Chad resolution) would help ensure • Rapid response. Developing that the issue is resilient to changing scaled warning systems that political winds. identify long, medium and short- term risks, and that include clear • Institutionalization. At “triggers” for emergency action on the international level, climate and security, would help institutionalization could involve ensure that foreseeable events are establishing semi-independent acted upon with commensurate “Climate Security Crisis Watch levels of urgency. This is Centers,” staffed by expert particularly important for low analysts and issuing regular probability/high impact risks, and recommendations to the UN creating a governance capacity to Security Council. The centers could prepare for “unknown unknowns” be new structures or integrated into or “black swans.” existing early-warning systems, and could be replicated at regional or • Contingencies for unintended national levels. consequences. Despite best efforts, unintended consequences • Elevation. Elevating such issues of solutions to these risks may within governing bodies is critical inevitably arise. Governments for ensuring preparedness. Within should seek to identify these

Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 87 In the 21st century we cannot lean on the excuse that we did not see the threat coming. We do see it coming. That foresight makes the Responsibility to Prepare a strategic imperative.

88 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 2.4. A RESPONSIBILITY TO PREPARE: GOVERNING IN AN AGE OF UNPRECEDENTED RISKS AND UNPRECEDENTED FORESIGHT

potential eventualities and develop scenarios, difficult and potentially contingencies for addressing them. inhumane choices in the face of continued strains on natural Such an agenda – focused as it is resources and political will. This on reforming security institutions scenario is preventable. – would ensure that critical, Whether the response to climate nontraditional challenges are risks from the international security appropriately managed as global community will be commensurate security risks, rather than niche to the threat remains to be seen. concerns. A practical fulfilment of However, in the 21st century, we the goals and principles articulated cannot lean on the excuse that we did in this Responsibility to Prepare not see the threat coming. We do see framework would increase the it coming. That foresight makes the likelihood of a more stable global Responsibility to Prepare a strategic governance systems in the face imperative. of rapid but foreseeable change. However, the window of opportunity This article is an abridged version to strengthen global governance in of a recently-released report by the a significantly altered geostrategic Center for Climate and Security: “A environment is narrowing. Delaying Responsibility to Prepare: Governing action may result in diminishing in an Age of Unprecedented Risk and returns, and, in the worst-case Unprecedented Foresight”

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Continuing the conversation

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