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HungerMapLIVE: insight and key trends By the World Food Programme (WFP) | 9 August 2021

FOOD INSECURITY AT A GLANCE

5.5M 26.3M 1.1M Chronic hunger Population Acute hunger (undernourishment) (INSTAT Census 2018 with a IPC Phase 3+ 2.46% growth rate, 2020) (SOFI Report, 2021)1 (IPC, Apr 2021 - Sep 2021)2

The HungerMapLIVE tracks core indicators of acute hunger in near real-time.

Acute hunger is measured by key indicators such as household food consumption, livelihood behaviors, child nutritional status, mortality, access to clean drinking water and other contextual factors. The HungerMapLIVE primarily tracks trends on household food consumption, consumption-based coping and livelihood changes to track multiple aspects of food insecurity. As these are outcome level 1 indicators in the Integrated Food Security Phase Classifcation (IPC) Framework, they can provide early indications of potential shifts in acute food insecurity.

Insufcient food consumption (HungerMapLIVE data)3 7.0M → 6.8M As of 11 May 2021 As of 9 August 2021

Crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies (HungerMapLIVE data)3 10.5M → 12.4M As of 11 May 2021 As of 9 August 2021

Methodology Note: The HungerMapLIVE includes data from two sources: (1) WFP’s continuous, near real-time monitoring systems, which remotely collect thousands of data daily through live calls conducted by call centres around the world; and (2) machine learning-based predictive models. Therefore, to note this diferentiation, this report indicates whether a region’s data is based on WFP’s near real-time monitoring systems (marked ‘ACTUAL’) or predictive models (marked ‘PREDICTED’).

1 Chronic hunger (undernourishment) is defned by people not able to meet long-term food consumption requirements. Source: FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO. 2021. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2021. 2 Source: IPC/CH analysis (ipcinfo.org) 3 Source: WFP HungerMap LIVE analysis, updated daily. Current food security outlook There are 11 regions considered High Risk or Moderate Risk and Deteriorating in Madagascar

Diana

Sava

Sofia

Boeny

Analanjirofo

Alaotra Mangoro

Analamanga Confict (≥ 1 fatality/200,000 in Itasy the last 30 days)

Vakinankaratra Market (≥ 40% prevalence access challenges) Amoron I Mania

Vegetation (< 80% vegetation Vatovavy Fitovinany anomaly)

Ihorombe

Atsimo Andrefana

Anosy Atsimo Atsinanana

Androy

The HungerMapLIVE divides regions into various tiers of risk based on: the prevalence of insufcient food consumption and the prevalence of households utilizing crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies, as well as the change in these prevalences from 90 days ago (11 May 2021) until now (9 August 2021). Regions are divided into these tiers based on the following criteria:

Tier 1: High Risk and Deteriorating. Regions with more than 40% Tier 2: High Risk and Stable. Regions with more than 40% prevalence for prevalence for the average of the above two indicators AND signifcant the average of the above two indicators AND no signifcant deterioration deterioration observed for the average of both indicators from 90 days observed for the average of both indicators from 90 days ago. ago.

Tier 3: Moderate Risk and Deteriorating. Regions with less than 40% Tier 4: Moderate Risk and Stable. Regions with less than 40% prevalence prevalence for the average of the above two indicators AND signifcant for the average of the above two indicators AND no signifcant deterioration observed for the average of both indicators from 90 days deterioration observed for the average of both indicators from 90 days ago. ago.

Regions marked for deterioration for these metrics must satisfy one of the following conditions: (1) >40% prevalence: 15% increase, (2) 20-40% prevalence: 20% increase, (3) <20% prevalence: 25% increase. HungerMapLIVE: Madagascar insight and key trends 9 August 2021

Regions with the highest prevalence of insufcient food consumption

Currently, the regions with the highest prevalence of insufcient food consumption, in order of severity, are: ACTUAL, ACTUAL, Atsimo Atsinanana ACTUAL, Atsimo Andrefana ACTUAL, Haute Matsiatra ACTUAL, ACTUAL, ACTUAL, Sofa ACTUAL, Sava ACTUAL, ACTUAL, Atsinanana ACTUAL, Amoron I Mania ACTUAL.

These regions account for 69% of the total number of people with insufcient food consumption in Madagascar—amounting to approximately 4.66M people, decreasing by 206k (4.2%) compared to 90 days ago.

PREVALENCE OF INSUFFICIENT FOOD CONSUMPTION TOTAL NO. (HIGH → LOW) POPULATION AFFECTED

Androy ACTUAL 58% 882k 512k

Anosy ACTUAL 46% 807k 370k

Atsimo 38% 1.08M 410k Atsinanana ACTUAL Atsimo 36% 1.58M 575k Andrefana ACTUAL Haute 36% 1.44M 517k Matsiatra ACTUAL Vatovavy 33% 1.70M 558k Fitovinany ACTUAL Analanjirofo ACTUAL 29% 1.24M 364k

Sofa ACTUAL 26% 1.50M 387k

Sava ACTUAL 26% 1.18M 304k

Ihorombe ACTUAL 25% 375k 94.5k

Atsinanana ACTUAL 25% 1.53M 380k

Amoron I 22% 859k 187k Mania ACTUAL

Trends of the prevalence of insufcient food consumption over the past 90 days These graphs, all on a scale from 0% to 100%, show the trend in the prevalence of insufcient food consumption over the past 90 days. The percentages detailed below the region name indicate the change in the prevalence of insufcient food consumption from 90 days ago to today, with regions sorted by the increase in prevalence of insufcient food consumption.

Boeny ACTUAL Analanjirofo ACTUAL ACTUAL Amoron I Atsinanana ACTUAL Menabe ACTUAL 15% → 20% 24% → 29% 17% → 20% Mania ACTUAL 23% → 25% 19% → 20% 19% → 22%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug

Analamanga ACTUAL Atsimo Sofa ACTUAL Haute Androy ACTUAL Vatovavy 16% → 16% Atsinanana ACTUAL 27% → 26% Matsiatra ACTUAL 62% → 58% Fitovinany ACTUAL 39% → 38% 38% → 36% 35% → 33%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug HungerMapLIVE: Madagascar insight and key trends 9 August 2021

Regions with the highest prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies

To support the global COVID‑19 response, WFP has expanded its near real-time remote monitoring systems to assess the food-based coping situation in Madagascar. The table below shows the current situation in regions with the highest prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies. These regions account for 61% of the total number of people currently monitored for food-based coping in Madagascar—amounting to approximately 7.51M people.

PREVALENCE OF CRISIS OR ABOVE CRISIS LEVEL FOOD-BASED TOTAL NO. COPING STRATEGIES (HIGH → LOW) POPULATION AFFECTED

Androy ACTUAL 81% 882k 717k

Anosy ACTUAL 71% 807k 577k

Atsimo 71% 1.58M 1.12M Andrefana ACTUAL Vatovavy 59% 1.70M 1.00M Fitovinany ACTUAL Menabe ACTUAL 57% 712k 405k

Ihorombe ACTUAL 53% 375k 201k

Haute 51% 1.44M 740k Matsiatra ACTUAL Atsinanana ACTUAL 50% 1.53M 761k

Boeny ACTUAL 48% 961k 458k

Atsimo 44% 1.08M 478k Atsinanana ACTUAL Analanjirofo ACTUAL 44% 1.24M 547k

Sava ACTUAL 42% 1.18M 498k

Trends of the prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies over the past 90 days These graphs, all on a scale from 0% to 100%, show the trend in the prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies over the past 90 days. The percentages detailed below the region name indicate the change in the prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies from 90 days ago to today, with regions sorted by the increase in prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies.

Atsinanana ACTUAL Betsiboka ACTUAL Melaky ACTUAL Menabe ACTUAL Analamanga ACTUAL Analanjirofo ACTUAL 34% → 50% 29% → 40% 29% → 40% 43% → 57% 31% → 41% 35% → 44%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug

Sava ACTUAL Vatovavy Vakinankaratra ACTUAL Boeny ACTUAL Haute Androy ACTUAL 34% → 42% Fitovinany ACTUAL 32% → 39% 40% → 48% Matsiatra ACTUAL 70% → 81% 49% → 59% 44% → 51%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug HungerMapLIVE: Madagascar insight and key trends 9 August 2021

Regions with the highest prevalence of challenges accessing markets1

To support the global COVID‑19 response, WFP has expanded its near real-time remote monitoring systems to assess the market access situation in Madagascar. The table below shows the current situation in regions with the highest prevalence of challenges accessing markets. These regions account for 55% of the total number of people currently monitored for market access in Madagascar—amounting to approximately 5.11M people.

PREVALENCE OF CHALLENGES ACCESSING MARKETS TOTAL NO. (HIGH → LOW) POPULATION AFFECTED

Androy ACTUAL 47% 882k 410k

Menabe ACTUAL 43% 712k 307k

Atsimo 42% 1.08M 449k Atsinanana ACTUAL Anosy ACTUAL 41% 807k 329k

Vatovavy 41% 1.70M 693k Fitovinany ACTUAL Itasy ACTUAL 38% 881k 338k

Sava ACTUAL 38% 1.18M 451k

Analanjirofo ACTUAL 38% 1.24M 471k

Atsimo 37% 1.58M 593k Andrefana ACTUAL Boeny ACTUAL 37% 961k 355k

Bongolava ACTUAL 36% 550k 198k

Haute 36% 1.44M 516k Matsiatra ACTUAL

Trends of the prevalence of challenges accessing markets over the past 90 days These graphs, all on a scale from 0% to 100%, show the trend in the prevalence of challenges accessing markets over the past 90 days. The percentages detailed below the region name indicate the change in the prevalence of challenges accessing markets from 90 days ago to today, with regions sorted by the increase in prevalence of challenges accessing markets.

Analamanga ACTUAL Melaky ACTUAL Betsiboka ACTUAL Atsimo Diana ACTUAL Menabe ACTUAL 22% → 33% 24% → 32% 24% → 32% Atsinanana ACTUAL 25% → 33% 33% → 43% 31% → 42%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug

Atsimo Vatovavy Androy ACTUAL Itasy ACTUAL Analanjirofo ACTUAL Atsinanana ACTUAL Andrefana ACTUAL Fitovinany ACTUAL 41% → 47% 34% → 38% 34% → 38% 32% → 35% 29% → 37% 34% → 41%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug

1 Challenges include both physical and fnancial constraints. Annex: Summary of food security and related metrics in Madagascar, 9 August 2021

TOTAL POPULATION OF PEOPLE WITH INSUFFICIENT PEOPLE USING CRISIS OR ABOVE CRISIS LEVEL PEOPLE REPORTING CHALLENGES REFERENCE (MILLIONS) FOOD CONSUMPTION (MILLIONS) FOOD-BASED COPING STRATEGIES (MILLIONS) ACCESSING MARKETS (MILLIONS) Alaotra 1.23 0.17 0.49 0.37 Mangoro ACTUAL Amoron I 0.86 0.19 0.35 0.26 Mania ACTUAL Analamanga ACTUAL 4.02 0.65 1.64 1.32 Analanjirofo ACTUAL 1.24 0.36 0.55 0.47 Androy ACTUAL 0.88 0.51 0.72 0.41 Anosy ACTUAL 0.81 0.37 0.58 0.33 Atsimo 1.58 0.58 1.12 0.59 Andrefana ACTUAL Atsimo 1.08 0.41 0.48 0.45 Atsinanana ACTUAL Atsinanana ACTUAL 1.53 0.38 0.76 0.53 Betsiboka ACTUAL 0.35 0.06 0.14 0.11 Boeny ACTUAL 0.96 0.19 0.46 0.35 Bongolava ACTUAL 0.55 0.10 0.20 0.20 Diana ACTUAL 0.84 0.13 0.26 0.28 Haute 1.44 0.52 0.74 0.52 Matsiatra ACTUAL Ihorombe ACTUAL 0.38 0.09 0.20 0.08 Itasy ACTUAL 0.88 0.17 0.37 0.34 Melaky ACTUAL 0.35 0.06 0.14 0.11 Menabe ACTUAL 0.71 0.14 0.40 0.31 Sava ACTUAL 1.18 0.30 0.50 0.45 Sofa ACTUAL 1.50 0.39 0.43 0.51 Vakinankaratra ACTUAL 2.17 0.44 0.84 0.68 Vatovavy 1.70 0.56 1.00 0.69 Fitovinany ACTUAL HungerMapLIVE: Madagascar insight and key trends 9 August 2021

DEEP DIVE

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CONFLICT