HungerMapLIVE: Madagascar insight and key trends By the World Food Programme (WFP) | 27 August 2021

FOOD INSECURITY AT A GLANCE

5.5M 26.3M 1.1M Chronic hunger Population Acute hunger (undernourishment) (INSTAT Census 2018 with a IPC Phase 3+ 2.46% growth rate, 2020) (SOFI Report, 2021)1 (IPC, Apr 2021 - Sep 2021)2

The HungerMapLIVE tracks core indicators of acute hunger in near real-time.

Acute hunger is measured by key indicators such as household food consumption, livelihood behaviors, child nutritional status, mortality, access to clean drinking water and other contextual factors. The HungerMapLIVE primarily tracks trends on household food consumption, consumption-based coping and livelihood changes to track multiple aspects of food insecurity. As these are outcome level 1 indicators in the Integrated Food Security Phase Classifcation (IPC) Framework, they can provide early indications of potential shifts in acute food insecurity.

Insufcient food consumption (HungerMapLIVE data)3 7.0M → 6.7M As of 29 May 2021 As of 27 August 2021

Crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies (HungerMapLIVE data)3 10.9M → 13.1M As of 29 May 2021 As of 27 August 2021

Methodology Note: The HungerMapLIVE includes data from two sources: (1) WFP’s continuous, near real-time monitoring systems, which remotely collect thousands of data daily through live calls conducted by call centres around the world; and (2) machine learning-based predictive models. Therefore, to note this diferentiation, this report indicates whether a region’s data is based on WFP’s near real-time monitoring systems (marked ‘ACTUAL’) or predictive models (marked ‘PREDICTED’).

1 Chronic hunger (undernourishment) is defned by people not able to meet long-term food consumption requirements. Source: FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO. 2021. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2021. 2 Source: IPC/CH analysis (ipcinfo.org) 3 Source: WFP HungerMap LIVE analysis, updated daily. Current food security outlook There are 11 regions considered High Risk or Moderate Risk and Deteriorating in Madagascar

Diana

Sava

Sofia

Boeny

Analanjirofo Betsiboka Melaky

Alaotra Mangoro

Analamanga Atsinanana Bongolava

Market Itasy (≥ 40% prevalence access challenges)

Vegetation Vakinankaratra (< 80% vegetation anomaly)

Menabe Amoron I Mania

Vatovavy Fitovinany

Haute Matsiatra

Ihorombe

Atsimo Andrefana

Anosy Atsimo Atsinanana

Androy

The HungerMapLIVE divides regions into various tiers of risk based on: the prevalence of insufcient food consumption and the prevalence of households utilizing crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies, as well as the change in these prevalences from 90 days ago (29 May 2021) until now (27 August 2021). Regions are divided into these tiers based on the following criteria:

Tier 1: High Risk and Deteriorating. Regions with more than 40% Tier 2: High Risk and Stable. Regions with more than 40% prevalence for prevalence for the average of the above two indicators AND signifcant the average of the above two indicators AND no signifcant deterioration deterioration observed for the average of both indicators from 90 days observed for the average of both indicators from 90 days ago. ago.

Tier 3: Moderate Risk and Deteriorating. Regions with less than 40% Tier 4: Moderate Risk and Stable. Regions with less than 40% prevalence prevalence for the average of the above two indicators AND signifcant for the average of the above two indicators AND no signifcant deterioration observed for the average of both indicators from 90 days deterioration observed for the average of both indicators from 90 days ago. ago.

Regions marked for deterioration for these metrics must satisfy one of the following conditions: (1) >40% prevalence: 15% increase, (2) 20-40% prevalence: 20% increase, (3) <20% prevalence: 25% increase. HungerMapLIVE: Madagascar insight and key trends 27 August 2021

Regions with the highest prevalence of insufcient food consumption

Currently, the regions with the highest prevalence of insufcient food consumption, in order of severity, are: Androy ACTUAL, Anosy ACTUAL, Atsimo Atsinanana ACTUAL, Haute Matsiatra ACTUAL, Atsimo Andrefana ACTUAL, Vatovavy Fitovinany ACTUAL, Analanjirofo ACTUAL, Sava ACTUAL, Ihorombe ACTUAL, Boeny ACTUAL, Atsinanana ACTUAL, Sofa ACTUAL.

These regions account for 69% of the total number of people with insufcient food consumption in Madagascar—amounting to approximately 4.62M people, decreasing by 240k (4.9%) compared to 90 days ago.

PREVALENCE OF INSUFFICIENT FOOD CONSUMPTION TOTAL NO. (HIGH → LOW) POPULATION AFFECTED

Androy ACTUAL 54% 882k 473k

Anosy ACTUAL 45% 807k 359k

Atsimo 42% 1.08M 454k Atsinanana ACTUAL Haute 38% 1.44M 543k Matsiatra ACTUAL Atsimo 35% 1.58M 548k Andrefana ACTUAL Vatovavy 33% 1.70M 558k Fitovinany ACTUAL Analanjirofo ACTUAL 30% 1.24M 370k

Sava ACTUAL 25% 1.18M 298k

Ihorombe ACTUAL 25% 375k 92.4k

Boeny ACTUAL 24% 961k 235k

Atsinanana ACTUAL 23% 1.53M 348k

Sofa ACTUAL 23% 1.50M 340k

Trends of the prevalence of insufcient food consumption over the past 90 days These graphs, all on a scale from 0% to 100%, show the trend in the prevalence of insufcient food consumption over the past 90 days. The percentages detailed below the region name indicate the change in the prevalence of insufcient food consumption from 90 days ago to today, with regions sorted by the increase in prevalence of insufcient food consumption.

Boeny ACTUAL Vakinankaratra ACTUAL Analanjirofo ACTUAL Bongolava ACTUAL Atsimo Amoron I 16% → 24% 14% → 21% 24% → 30% 16% → 19% Atsinanana ACTUAL Mania ACTUAL 38% → 42% 19% → 21%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug

Haute Vatovavy Menabe ACTUAL Analamanga ACTUAL Alaotra Anosy ACTUAL Matsiatra ACTUAL Fitovinany ACTUAL 19% → 18% 17% → 16% Mangoro ACTUAL 50% → 45% 37% → 38% 33% → 33% 16% → 14%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug HungerMapLIVE: Madagascar insight and key trends 27 August 2021

Regions with the highest prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies

To support the global COVID‑19 response, WFP has expanded its near real-time remote monitoring systems to assess the food-based coping situation in Madagascar. The table below shows the current situation in regions with the highest prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies. These regions account for 58% of the total number of people currently monitored for food-based coping in Madagascar—amounting to approximately 7.61M people.

PREVALENCE OF CRISIS OR ABOVE CRISIS LEVEL FOOD-BASED TOTAL NO. COPING STRATEGIES (HIGH → LOW) POPULATION AFFECTED

Androy ACTUAL 80% 882k 708k

Atsimo 73% 1.58M 1.16M Andrefana ACTUAL Anosy ACTUAL 73% 807k 586k

Menabe ACTUAL 63% 712k 445k

Vatovavy 60% 1.70M 1.02M Fitovinany ACTUAL Ihorombe ACTUAL 57% 375k 213k

Atsimo 55% 1.08M 599k Atsinanana ACTUAL Haute 54% 1.44M 778k Matsiatra ACTUAL Boeny ACTUAL 53% 961k 511k

Atsinanana ACTUAL 52% 1.53M 799k

Amoron I 46% 859k 399k Mania ACTUAL Itasy ACTUAL 46% 881k 402k

Trends of the prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies over the past 90 days These graphs, all on a scale from 0% to 100%, show the trend in the prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies over the past 90 days. The percentages detailed below the region name indicate the change in the prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies from 90 days ago to today, with regions sorted by the increase in prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies.

Melaky ACTUAL Betsiboka ACTUAL Sofa ACTUAL Menabe ACTUAL Boeny ACTUAL Analamanga ACTUAL 29% → 42% 29% → 42% 25% → 35% 45% → 63% 40% → 53% 33% → 43%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug

Vatovavy Amoron I Vakinankaratra ACTUAL Atsinanana ACTUAL Bongolava ACTUAL Haute Fitovinany ACTUAL Mania ACTUAL 32% → 41% 42% → 52% 32% → 39% Matsiatra ACTUAL 47% → 60% 37% → 46% 45% → 54%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug HungerMapLIVE: Madagascar insight and key trends 27 August 2021

Regions with the highest prevalence of challenges accessing markets1

To support the global COVID‑19 response, WFP has expanded its near real-time remote monitoring systems to assess the market access situation in Madagascar. The table below shows the current situation in regions with the highest prevalence of challenges accessing markets. These regions account for 57% of the total number of people currently monitored for market access in Madagascar—amounting to approximately 5.23M people.

PREVALENCE OF CHALLENGES ACCESSING MARKETS TOTAL NO. (HIGH → LOW) POPULATION AFFECTED

Androy ACTUAL 45% 882k 394k

Menabe ACTUAL 41% 712k 295k

Atsimo 41% 1.58M 645k Andrefana ACTUAL Anosy ACTUAL 40% 807k 323k

Atsimo 40% 1.08M 429k Atsinanana ACTUAL Analanjirofo ACTUAL 38% 1.24M 467k

Vatovavy 37% 1.70M 636k Fitovinany ACTUAL Sava ACTUAL 37% 1.18M 436k

Boeny ACTUAL 37% 961k 355k

Atsinanana ACTUAL 36% 1.53M 553k

Bongolava ACTUAL 36% 550k 196k

Haute 35% 1.44M 501k Matsiatra ACTUAL

Trends of the prevalence of challenges accessing markets over the past 90 days These graphs, all on a scale from 0% to 100%, show the trend in the prevalence of challenges accessing markets over the past 90 days. The percentages detailed below the region name indicate the change in the prevalence of challenges accessing markets from 90 days ago to today, with regions sorted by the increase in prevalence of challenges accessing markets.

Analamanga ACTUAL Atsimo Atsimo Melaky ACTUAL Betsiboka ACTUAL Menabe ACTUAL 24% → 33% Atsinanana ACTUAL Andrefana ACTUAL 25% → 32% 25% → 32% 36% → 41% 31% → 40% 32% → 41%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug

Atsinanana ACTUAL Androy ACTUAL Amoron I Analanjirofo ACTUAL Vatovavy Diana ACTUAL 34% → 36% 42% → 45% Mania ACTUAL 36% → 38% Fitovinany ACTUAL 30% → 31% 31% → 33% 36% → 37%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug

1 Challenges include both physical and fnancial constraints. Annex: Summary of food security and related metrics in Madagascar, 27 August 2021

TOTAL POPULATION OF PEOPLE WITH INSUFFICIENT PEOPLE USING CRISIS OR ABOVE CRISIS LEVEL PEOPLE REPORTING CHALLENGES REFERENCE (MILLIONS) FOOD CONSUMPTION (MILLIONS) FOOD-BASED COPING STRATEGIES (MILLIONS) ACCESSING MARKETS (MILLIONS) Alaotra 1.23 0.18 0.48 0.38 Mangoro ACTUAL Amoron I 0.86 0.18 0.40 0.28 Mania ACTUAL Analamanga ACTUAL 4.02 0.65 1.72 1.32 Analanjirofo ACTUAL 1.24 0.37 0.54 0.47 Androy ACTUAL 0.88 0.47 0.71 0.39 Anosy ACTUAL 0.81 0.36 0.59 0.32 Atsimo 1.58 0.55 1.16 0.65 Andrefana ACTUAL Atsimo 1.08 0.45 0.60 0.43 Atsinanana ACTUAL Atsinanana ACTUAL 1.53 0.35 0.80 0.55 Betsiboka ACTUAL 0.35 0.06 0.15 0.11 Boeny ACTUAL 0.96 0.23 0.51 0.36 Bongolava ACTUAL 0.55 0.10 0.21 0.20 Diana ACTUAL 0.84 0.13 0.28 0.26 Haute 1.44 0.54 0.78 0.50 Matsiatra ACTUAL Ihorombe ACTUAL 0.38 0.09 0.21 0.07 Itasy ACTUAL 0.88 0.15 0.40 0.30 Melaky ACTUAL 0.35 0.06 0.14 0.11 Menabe ACTUAL 0.71 0.13 0.45 0.30 Sava ACTUAL 1.18 0.30 0.51 0.44 Sofa ACTUAL 1.50 0.34 0.53 0.48 Vakinankaratra ACTUAL 2.17 0.45 0.88 0.62 Vatovavy 1.70 0.56 1.02 0.64 Fitovinany ACTUAL HungerMapLIVE: Madagascar insight and key trends 27 August 2021

DEEP DIVE

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CONFLICT

Please note that real-time confict data updates from the Armed Confict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) are currently paused through 6 September. Consequently, confict analyses provided by the HungerMapLIVE’s global, regional and national Insights and Key Trends are currently unavailable. Confict information will be visible again after 6 September.