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Raisina Dialogue Conference Report 2019 Conference Report 2019 A World Reorder New Geometries | Fluid PartNershiPs | uNcertaiN outcomes MINISTRY OF EXTERNAL AFFAIRS Government of India DIALOGUE 2019 ORGANISERS MINISTRY OF EXTERNAL AFFAIRS Government of India Contents 7 Outcome Statement by Samir Saran—President, Observer Research Foundation 12 Inaugural Addresse by Sunjoy Joshi, Chairman, Observer Research Foundation 14 Inaugural Address by Erna Solberg—Prime Minister of Norway 20 Valedictory Address by Dato Seri Anwar bin Ibrahim—President of Parti Keadilan Rakyat, Malaysia 26 Ministerial Address by Smt Sushma Swaraj, External Affairs Minister, Government of India Sessions When WTO Met Westphalia: Preserving the Liberal Engendered Globalisation: 30 Order 49 What Will it Take? Accessible Health: Towards an Inclusive Human Green Capital: Sustained Finance for Sustainable 33 Capital Framework 52 Growth Trust in Tech: A New Framework for Digital The Future of Work: Earning to Live vs. Living to 36 Security & Prosperity 55 Earn Two Arteries, One Heartland: As the Arctic, Old World, New Frontiers: 38 Eurasia, and the Indo-Pacific Converge 58 The Future of Europe Author’s Corner The Arrival Of Global Politics: Navigating A 41 60 Multi-Perspective World Order Amoebic, Asymmetric and Anarchic: Countering Indo-Pacific: Ancient Waters and Emerging 44 Terrorism as it Evolves 62 Geometries The World in a Moment: Looking Back, Looking Bits and Bytes: Creating an Agile Governance 46 Ahead, Looking Hard 65 Framework for the Future The Waning West: From Labor to Leadership: 67 Can it Discover a New Direction? 93 Investing in Children The Road from the Khyber to the Bosporus: Development Amid Disruption: 69 Partnerships, Perils and Opportunities 95 Uncommon Pathways for the Common Good Bridging the Gulf: Towards a New Poltics and A Renewed Imperative: Strategic Cooperation 72 Economics of a Dynamic Geography 97 among Democracies Curating a New Concert: Multiple Visions for the Diversity Within the Union: 75 Future of the Indo-Pacific Region 99 The EU’s Midlife Checklist Defending Freedom and Countering Influence Accountable Autonomy: 77 Operations 102 When Machines Kill SALT and Security: Innovation Capital: 79 The Unclear Nuclear Dynamics 104 Ideas for Industrialisation 4.0 A New Delhi Consensus: The Road to 2030: 82 India’s Imagination and Global Expectations 106 Challenges, Partnerships and Predictions Africa First: Populism and Prosperity: 84 Global Growth’s New Frontier 108 Confronting the Looming Trade Wars Conflicted Coalitions: Discussing the Curious Clicks and Kalashnikovs: 86 Partnerships Shaping Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific 111 A New Battle for Hearts and Minds In Conversation with Hamid Karzai, Programme of the Raisina Dialogue 2019 89 Former President of Afghanistan 115 Shaping Policy in the Asian Century: 91 New Politics, Ethics, and Economics DIALOGUE 2019 The five foundational pillars of the fourth edition of the Dialogue were: (1) Political Histories vs Power Geographies; (2) Globalization and Anti-Globalization: Trade, Tech and Turbulence; (3) All for One: State, Enterprise and the Wellbeing of the Individual; (4) Engineering a new Ethic in 3D, and (5) iDecide: Leading by Impulse or Leadership by Institution? The 2019 iteration of the dialogue covered over 80 different themes and attracted nearly 600 speakers and delegates from over 93 countries. The dialogue was jointly inaugurated by the Prime Minister of India, H.E. Narendra Modi and the Prime Minister of Norway, H.E. Erna Solberg. The dialogue hosted high-level delegations from several countries including Australia, Spain, Iran, Nepal, Russia, France, Malaysia, Japan, South Africa, Singapore, Sri Lanka, UAE, Hungary, U.K., and U.S. The Raisina dialogue was conceptualised to be the foremost global ideation arena located in the emerging world. It is India’s contribution to the efforts to discover solutions, identify opportunities, and provide stability to a century that has witnessed a tumultuous two decades. This platform endeavours to offer a blueprint for a new global order incubated in the Eastern Hemisphere, for a paradigm of global development led by the Global South, and for a responsive post-modern social order lent credence by the wisdom of ancient cultures. RAISINA DIALOGUE 2019 n CONFERENCE REPORT 3 DIALOGUE 2019 Hosts Vijay Gokhale Sunjoy Joshi Foreign Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs, Chairman, Government of India Observer Research Foundation Gaddam Dharmendra Samir Saran Additional Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs, President, Government of India Observer Research Foundation Team Raisina Pushan Das Tanoubi Ngangom Arka Biswas Brigadier Naveen Associate Fellow and Associate Fellow and Associate Fellow, Nijhawan Programme Coordinator, Programme Director, ORF OSD, Policy Planning ORF ORF and Research, Ministry of External Affairs Terri Chapman Ritika Passi Ayan Sharma Aastha Kaul Associate Fellow, Associate Fellow and Associate Fellow, Research Assistant, ORF Project Editor, ORF ORF ORF Ritwik Sharma Chandika Gupta Anushka Shah Meghna Chadha Research Assistant, ORF Research Assistant (Digital), Research Intern, Research Assistant, (also on Team AFGG) ORF ORF ORF Kamakshi Katyal Research Intern, ORF DIALOGUE 2019 OUTCOME STATEMENT KEYNOTE PANEL REPORTS AGENDA HOSTS S. Jaishankar Sunjoy Joshi FOREIGN SECRETARY, MINISTRY OF CHAIRMAN, ORF EXTERNAL AFFAIRS, GOVERNMENT OF INDIA Samir Saran Gaddam Dharmendra PRESIDENT, ORF JOINT SECRETARY, MINISTRY OF EXTERNAL AFFAIRS, GOVERNMENT OF INDIA TEAM RAISINA Pushan Das Col. Naveen Nijhawan PROGRAMME COORDINATOR, OFFICER ON SPECIAL DUTY, POLICY PLANNING GLOBAL GOVERNANCE PROGRAMME, ORF AND RESEARCH, MEA Tanoubi Ngangom Bijay Selvaraj ASSOCIATE FELLOW , ORF DEPUTY SECRETARY, POLICY PLANNING AND RESEARCH,MEA Oceans had an important place in Indian thinking since “Thepre-Vedic Indo-Pacific times. Thousands is a ofnatural years ago, region. the Indus ItValley is also Kriti Shah Gayathri Iyer Civilisation as well as Indian peninsula had maritime JUNIOR FELLOW, ORF RESEARCH ASSISTANT, ORF home“ trade.to a Oceansvast arrayand Varuna of global– the Lord opportunities of all Waters – find and Meghna Bal challenges.a prominent I am place increasingly in the world’s oldest convinced books— the with Vedas. each JUNIOR FELLOW, ORF passing day that—Shri the Narendra destinies Modi, HON. PRIME MINISTERof OFthose INDIA of us who live in the region are linked.” ” —Shri Narendra Modi, Hon. Prime Minister Of India DIALOGUE Outcome Statement ERHAPS the most important driver of change is the certainty that 2019 will her- ald the arrival of truly global politics. The post-war order contributed immensely Pto the progress and security of nations; yet its ideas, frameworks, and institutions are no longer sufficient for a new world. The small community of nations that designed and sustained the post-war order must give way to a more diverse constellation of actors. New By Dr. Samir Saran powers from the East are only one set of stakeholders—increasingly, global governance must President, ORF allow for distribution of authority and to a more diffused networks of actors, from cities and citizens to corporations and civil society organisations. How we do this will be the key question of our time. Consequently, we have chosen five themes that are defining a new world order. The first, and perhaps the most consequential of these developments, is the emergence of new strategic geographies that are transcending the old divides of East, West, North and South. Second, we analyse the discontent with today’s globalisation paradigms—and how new trade and technology tensions are threatening the future of connectivity and commerce. Third, we ex- plore how technology is compelling us to search for a new contract between the individual, a business, and the state. Fourth, we ask what ethics will define the development and de- ployment of new technologies and how they will affect individuals and our societies. Finally, we emphasise the role of leadership—both individual and institutional—in managing the complexities of today’s world. RAISINA DIALOGUE 2019 n CONFERENCE REPORT 7 DIALOGUE These are the big ideas that have influenced the design of the Raisina Dialogue 2019. Over the next three days, we have curated over 40 sets of interactions with a global com- munity of leaders and experts, in an attempt to paint a picture of a new world order that is rapidly emerging. A prominent feature of this year’s conversation at Raisina is Europe or more broadly, Eurasia. This supercontinent is without a doubt the most dynamic and unpre- dictable region in the world, one that continues to surprise itself and others around it. Once considered a benchmark for democracy and collective security, the EU is today increasingly roiled by the politics and economics of populism. Equally significant is that the geographical construct of the larger European continent is dissipating. New flows of finance, labour and information are merging Asia and Europe into a single Eurasian supercontinent. The ques- tion for the EU and other European actors, therefore, is whether they can act upon these momentous changes or be subsumed by them. The waters that link this region are undergoing a churn as well. Strategic and economic drivers have brought about seminal changes in the Arctic and the Indo-Pacific.A s climate change transforms the geography of the Arctic, its waters will merge the politics of the Pa- 8 RAISINA DIALOGUE 2019 n CONFERENCE REPORT DIALOGUE cific and theA tlantic Ocean, even as the regions’ incumbent powers
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