Local Air Quality Management Progress Report

April 2005 LAQM Progress Report, 2005.

Epping Forest District Council LAQM Progress Report, April 2005

Contents

1.0 Introduction 2

1.1 Background information 2 1.2 Previous assessments of air quality 2 1.3 Detailed assessment update (full report attached as appendix) 2

2.0 Emissions update 3

2.1 Industrial emissions sources 3 2.2 Traffic and transport 5 2.3 Planning and development 5

3.0 Monitoring update 6

3.1 EFDC diffusion tube survey 6 3.2 Highways Agency projects 10 3.3 Imperial College project 11

4.0 Summary and Conclusions 17

4.1 Summary overview 17 4.2 Future actions / proposals 17

Tables

1.3.1 Comparison of modelled and measured results 3 2.1.1 Industrial emissions sources 4 3.1.1 Changes in concentrations of NO2 7 3.1.2 EFDC diffusion tube results 8 3.2.1 Highways Agency diffusion tube locations 10 3.2.2 Highways Agency diffusion tube results 11 3.3.2 Imperial College diffusion tube locations 13

Figures

3.1.1 EFDC diffusion tube locations 6 3.3.1 Imperial College diffusion tube locations 14 3.3.2 Imperial College diffusion tube results 16 3.3.3 Variation in NO2 concentrations between May and December 2004 16 3.3.4 Attenuation of NO2 between 2.6m and 245m of the A104 16

Appendices

Appendix 1 – LAQM reporting timetable Appendix 2 – Detailed Assessment addendum report

Page 1 of 17 LAQM Progress Report, 2005. 1.0 Introduction

1.1 Background information

This Progress Report has been produced as part of District Councils duties under Part IV of the Environment Act 1995 to periodically review and assess air quality within the district area. The report is provided on an annual basis and follows the Updating and Screening Assessment (USA) and Detailed Assessments carried out in 2003 and 2004 respectively, as part of the second round of Review and Assessment.

The schedule for future reporting has been reproduced in Appendix 1.

The objective of the Progress Report is to provide continuity in the Local Air Quality Management (LAQM) process, by identifying any potential changes in air quality that might occur between the scheduled Review and Assessments that are undertaken on a three-yearly basis. They are intended also to help local authorities by providing a means for communicating air quality information, increasing the effectiveness of the monitoring effort being carried out and providing a cost effective solution to address future monitoring needs.

This Progress Report has been compiled with reference to the Progress Report Guidance (LAQM.PRG (03)), published by Defra in 2003. It presents information that has been collated since the production of the USA report, including air quality monitoring data, information about emission sources and any proposed developments that have the potential to affect air quality in the District.

1.2 Previous assessments of air quality

Epping Forest District Council carried out the first round of the Review and Assessment of air quality, including Stage 1, 2 and 3 reports, between 1998 and 2000. The first round assessments (Stages 1, 2 and 3) concluded that it was not necessary to declare any Air Quality Management Areas (AQMAs) for any pollutant.

The USA reconsidered the seven health based air quality objectives and was completed in September 2003. The USA concluded that a detailed assessment was required for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) due to road traffic emissions from the M25 (West of the M11), High Street (Epping), Hainault Road (), Church Hill () and A121 Link Road ().

The Detailed Assessment considered the annual mean objective for NO2 utilising the ADMS- Roads dispersion model. The results of the modelling exercise indicated that NO2 concentrations at receptor locations would not exceed the annual mean objective value (40 µg/ m3), with the possible exception of residential receptors in the immediate vicinity of the A121 Link Road/ A112 Junction (Waltham Abbey) and the Hainault Road/Manor Road junction (Chigwell). It was recommended in the Detailed Assessment that NO2 monitoring should be undertaken at these and other locations to verify the modelling results. Reference was also made to undertaking further monitoring at the A121 Church Hill/ A1168 Rectory Lane Junction.

An addendum report to the Detailed Assessment has subsequently been commissioned to further examine NO2 concentrations at these receptor sites using additional monitoring data.

Page 2 of 17 LAQM Progress Report, 2005. 1.3 Detailed Assessment update (full report attached as appendix)

As the monitoring data available for the Detailed Assessment was largely at kerbside locations, diffusion tubes were additionally located on building facades of nearest relevant receptors at the following locations:

• A121 Link Road/A112 junction (Waltham Abbey); • Hainault Road/Manor Road junction (Chigwell); and, • Church Hill (Loughton).

The results of the further NO2 monitoring (focusing on receptors) are shown in Table 1.3.1, where the measured concentrations are shown with the ADMS modelled results from the Detailed Assessment.

Table 1.3.1 – Comparison of modelled and measured results Location Average modelled Average measured kerbside NO2 receptor NO2 concentration (µg/m-3) concentration (µg/m-3) A121 Link Road/A112 45.4 31.5 junction (Waltham Abbey) Hainault Road/Manor 40.8 32.8 Road junction (Chigwell) Church Hill (Loughton) 42.9 31.4

The 2004 monitoring results confirm that it is not necessary to declare an AQMA within the three Assessment Areas, and that the Detailed Assessment 2003 verified results were overly precautionary in these locations.

The addendum report recommends that monitoring be continued at the existing receptor locations to demonstrate compliance with the Objective, and it is the Councils intention to do this for as long as permission is retained to maintain the diffusion tubes at these locations by the owners of the properties.

The addendum report further recommends that consideration be made to an additional receptor location along the A121 Link Road and at (105) Manor Road to confirm the projected drop-off in NO2 concentrations from the kerb from the kerbside sites with highest concentrations (No. 12 & 30), These will be deployed as occupier permissions allow.

The full Detailed Assessment addendum report is attached to this Progress Report as Appendix 2.

2.0 Emissions update

2.1 Industrial emissions sources

During the Updating and Screening Assessment in 2003, it was noted that there was only one Part A industrial source within the district (Phosphor Technology Ltd.), and this process has now ceased to operate. It was also noted in the USA, that there were 21 Part A processes in the neighbouring authorities which were within 5 km of the boundary of the district, although it was concluded that the Part A processes were not expected to have a significant impact on local air quality for receptors within the District.

At the time of the USA, there were and 15 Part B industrial sources and 17 petrol stations in the District. These processes are listed in Table 2.1.1.

Page 3 of 17 LAQM Progress Report, 2005.

Since the USA, 2 of the industrial sources ( Glassworks and Lancaster Bodycentre) are no longer authorised, and four waste oil burners have commenced operation (Automatt, Keithan Motor Services, Eppingdene Automotive and Wyn Thomas Servicing).

Of the 17 petrol stations, 2 have ceased to operate (Total Convenience Store and Esso Wintry Park), whilst two others have increased the volume of their turnover (Neales Garage and Warrenwood Service Station). Two others have been listed also, although they have a low volume turnover. The changes to the processes are summarised in Table 2.1.1.

Table 2.1.1 – Industrial emission sources Process Operator Process Type Notes Nazeing Glassworks Ltd. Glass manufacture No longer authorised Hopping Bros. (Whetstone) Manufacture of timber based No change Ltd. products C J Pryor (Plant) Ltd. Mobile concrete crusher No change C J Pryor (Plant) Ltd. Mobile screening plant No change C J Pryor (Plant) Ltd. Waste oil burner No change Deejay Accident Repair Respraying of road vehicles No change Centre Grove Coachworks Respraying of road vehicles No change (Chingford) Ltd. Brian L Shilton & Co. Ltd. Respraying of road vehicles No change PNG Accident Repair Centre Respraying of road vehicles No change G M Billing & Sons Ltd. Respraying of road vehicles No change Lignacite Ltd. Concrete block manufacture No change British Gas plc Odourising natural gas No change British Gas plc Odourising natural gas No change Popplewells Coachworks Ltd Respraying of Road Vehicles No change Lancaster Bodycentre Respraying of road vehicles Ceased operating Motor Group Respraying of road vehicles No change David Horner Associates Printworks (silk screen) No change Automatt Waste oil burner New process Keithan Motor Services Waste oil burner New process Eppingdene Automotive Waste oil burner New process Wyn Thomas Servicing Waste oil burner New process Tesco - Ongar Express Unloading of petrol No change Shell Epping Unloading of petrol No change Esso - Church Hill Unloading of petrol No change Shell Half Moon Unloading of petrol No change Shell Unloading of petrol No change Total Convenience Store Unloading of petrol Ceased operating Midway Garage Unloading of petrol No change Fina - Unloading of petrol No change Shell Chigwell Unloading of petrol No change Esso Wintry Park Unloading of petrol Ceased operating Neales Garage Unloading of petrol Increased volume Premier Service Station Unloading of petrol No change Bassett Service Station Unloading of petrol No change BP - Chigwell Service Station Unloading of petrol No change BP Harlow Gate Service Unloading of petrol No change Station BP - Wantz Filling Station Unloading of petrol No change Abbey Filling Station Ltd Unloading of petrol No change Marshfield Service Station Unloading of petrol No change Warrenwood Service Station Unloading of petrol Increased volume Garage Unloading of petrol Low volume Kings Head Garage Unloading of petrol Low volume

Page 4 of 17 LAQM Progress Report, 2005.

2.2 Traffic and transport

The Epping Forest District is covered by the County Council Local Transport Plan (LTP), which contains a number of general measures in the Essex LTP which are aimed at reducing the impact of road transport on air quality.

The Council is working in partnership with the Highways and Transportation department to ensure that new traffic management schemes consider the potential impact on air quality. Air quality monitoring is currently a requirement of the LTP.

The most significant transport issue currently being assessed are the proposals for the rapid widening of the M25, for which consultations are currently underway.

Significantly for the Epping Forest area, traffic displaced from the motorway during the construction phase is likely to use local roads through the forest, including the A121.

In partnership with the Highways Agency (via Mouchel Parkman), NO2 monitoring is already in place on these receptor roads, in order to provide background data, and data during the construction phase to assess the impact of the displaced traffic. The initial data from this survey is detailed in section 3.2 of this report.

Once complete, the widening scheme may have the effect of increasing the predicted zone of NO2 exceedance along the motorway corridor (currently 80metres from the centre line of the motorway), which could have the effect of increasing levels of specified pollutants to specified receptors.

Supplementary information provided by the highways agency does however predict that the widening scheme will have a net beneficial effect on air quality (particularly after the construction phase, which may lead to localised elevated pollution levels) due to combined effects of enhanced traffic flow and improvements to the national vehicle fleet.

Monitoring is also underway in these receptor locations to assess any impact of the widening scheme.

2.3 Planning and development

No major residential developments have been implemented since the Updating and Screening Assessment, however a distribution centre in the immediate vicinity of an existing residential development (also adjacent to the M25) has recently undergone a second phase of development.

The distribution centre in the vicinity of the Waltham Abbey Link Road now includes more industrial units. Although the units are not currently operational, their eventual use may lead to an increase in road vehicle pollution.

NO2 diffusion tubes are already in place at receptor locations within the residential development immediately adjacent to the distribution centre, and in addition data will be gathered regarding traffic flows and composition to enable regular assessments of the local air quality to assess any adverse air quality impacts associated with its operation.

Page 5 of 17 LAQM Progress Report, 2005. 3.0 Monitoring update

3.1 EFDC diffusion tube survey

The Council measures air quality in the district using passive diffusion tubes. Measurements are undertaken at 49 points (16 of which duplicated, i.e. measurements are taken at 41 separate sites). 12 of these sites were newly established in 2004 and two motorway sites were relocated closer to receptors (M25, Waltham Abbey; and The Street, ). The locations of the monitoring sites are given in Figure 3.1.1 and Table 3.1.1. Table 3.1.2 gives and the descriptions of the sites also (i.e. kerbside, background, receptor or motorway). No automated measurements are undertaken in the District.

Figure 3.1.1 – EFDC diffusion tube locations

The results of the monitoring programme are summarised in Table 3.1.1. The diffusion tubes used by Epping Forest District Council are supplied and analysed by Gradko. A preparation mixture of 50 % triethanolamine: acetone is used. A local diffusion tube correction factor of 1.04 has been derived by the Council, by exposing tubes in triplicate alongside an automatic monitoring station in an adjacent district (in the , at Waltham Cross). This compares favourably with the value proposed by the University of West of (1.12), although it is slightly less. The values in Table 3.1.1 have been amended using a figure of 1.04.

Page 6 of 17 LAQM Progress Report, 2005.

Many of the diffusion tube measurements indicated annual air concentrations that were either close to or in exceedence of the 2005 Objective level (40 µg/m-3). It is important to stress however, that these measurements were from locations that were in the close proximity of roadways and did not represent necessarily the exposure of adjacent receptor locations. Nevertheless, the measured levels were quite high at some places and the 2005 measurements will need to be carefully examined when they become available.

There appears to have been a significant drop in nitrogen dioxide levels at five sites over the period since monitoring began (Table 3.1.2). These drops (at Lynceley Grange, Epping; Homefield Close, Epping; Roundhills, Waltham Abbey; Uplands, Loughton; and Glen Faba Rd, Nazeing) are all significant at least at the 5% level (assuming a linear correlation). The levels at Tesco in Epping High Street indicated a significant increase however (at the 1% level).

The mean annual concentration at this site was also one of the highest in the district and was higher than the 2005 Objective level. Many of the sites had too few data points to indicate any concentration trend.

Predicted annual mean concentrations of NO2 for 2005 (based on the decrease in exhaust emissions suggested by Defra) were only marginally lower than those in 2004.

Table 3.1.1 - Changes in concentrations of NO2 Site Significant change Tesco, High Street Epping Increase (1%) Lynceley Grange, Epping Decrease (5%) Homefield Close, Epping Decrease (5%) 75 Roundhills, Waltham Abbey Decrease (1%) The Uplands, Loughton Decrease (5%) Netherall Rd/ Glen Faba Rd, Nazeing Decrease (5%)

Page 7 of 17 LAQM Progress Report, 2005.

Table 3.1.2 – EFDC diffusion tube annual average concentrations 3 Site Site Location NO2 Concentration (µg/ m ) No. Name Type X Y 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 High Street, Epping Kerb 546276 202436 40.7 49.9 46.3 - 45.8 43.3 39.3 38.3 2 Tesco, High Street Epping Kerb 545811 201904 34.2 33.2 36.2 41.0 46.4 42.6 47.0 45.8 3 Lynceley Grange, Epping B/G 546350 202850 38 42.2 35.6 24.1 25.5 27.5 26.7 26.1 4 Homefield Close, Epping B/G 546100 202450 34 36.4 37 31.4 27.9 28.2 28.0 27.3 5 Woodbine Close Park (Near M25) MW 541308 200037 - - - - - 44.9 38.3 37.3 6 75 Roundhills, Waltham Abbey Kerb 539100 199550 43.2 44.5 43.6 37.7 38.4 34.3 36.4 35.5 7 High Street, Epping Kerb 546276 202436 ------40.0 39.0 8 M25, Waltham Abbey MW 538956 199930 ------46.0 44.9 9 Hainault Road, Chigwell Kerb 544250 192250 50.3 47.7 49.2 39.8 46.6 44.3 40.0 39.0 10 Tesco, High Street Epping Kerb 545811 201904 ------46.0 44.9 11 High Street/ Great Lawn Junction, Ongar Kerb 555200 203600 - 41.4 41.1 30.8 28.6 30.4 < < 12 Hainault Road, Chigwell 2 Kerb 544234 192236 ------50.7 49.4 13 Hainault Road, Chigwell 3 Kerb 544252 192239 ------46.9 45.8 14 Hainault Road, Chigwell 4 Kerb 544257 192266 ------46.5 45.3 15 Church Hill Loughton 1 Kerb 543091 197350 ------43.0 41.9 16 Church Hill Loughton 2 Kerb 543066 197258 ------< < 17 Church Hill, Loughton Kerb 542500 196700 50.4 52.9 46.9 39 47.7 41.6 43.5 42.4 18 The Uplands, Loughton Kerb 542550 196650 39.1 38.9 38.2 30.4 - 31.9 28.2 27.5 19 Church Hill Loughton 3 Kerb 543052 197268 ------40.3 39.3 20 Loughton High Road 1 Kerb 542373 196440 ------44.2 43.1 21 Ivy Chimneys Road, Epping (near M25) MW 545271 2009363 ------42.5 41.4 22 Netherall Rd./ Glen Faba Rd., Nazeing B/G 539700 208650 30.2 24.8 23.7 20.9 25.5 21.3 20.6 20.1 23 Ivy Chimneys Road, Epping (near M25) MW 545200 200900 46.6 46.4 48.4 36.8 39.1 35.2 40.8 39.7 24 Woodbine Close Park (Near M25) MW 541308 200037 - - - - - 44.9 39.5 38.6 25 Loughton High Road 2 Kerb 542389 196502 ------42.4 41.3 26 Chigwell Lane/Colson Road, Loughton Kerb 544100 196150 43.9 44.6 47.7 33.9 34 34.9 35.8 34.9

Notes: the 2005 annual mean value is predicted from 2004 measurements and assuming a decrease in exhaust emissions detailed by Defra in LAQM.TG (03); Kerb=kerbside; B/G=background; MW = motorway (M25/M11); annual mean values based on at least 9 months data are reported; < signifies to few data to calculate a mean value

Page 8 of 17 LAQM Progress Report, 2005.

Table 3.1.2 – EFDC diffusion tube annual average concentrations (continued) 3 Site Site Location NO2 Concentration (µg/ m ) No. Name Type X Y 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 27 Loughton High Road 3 Kerb 542324 196340 ------52.3 51.0 28 Oakwood Hill/Chigwell Lane, Loughton Kerb 544200 195850 40.2 47.7 49.8 41.1 35.9 42.7 45.8 44.6 29 Link Road (A121), Waltham Abbey Kerb 538325 199582 - - - 40.2 44 49.1 48.7 47.5 30 Link Road (A121), Waltham Abbey Kerb 537963 199600 - - - 42.1 41.2 47.8 53.2 51.9 31 Woodbine Close Park (near M25) MW 541320 200020 - - - 38.1 35.8 36.8 38.5 37.6 32 Woodbine Close Park (near M25) MW 541330 199900 - - - 34.8 35.6 32.0 34.7 33.8 33 Woodbine Close Park (near A121) B/G 541450 199780 - - - 30.2 35.2 28.6 32.0 31.2 34 Crown Close, Sheering (Near M11) MW 550190 214000 - - - 34.2 36.9 32.6 35.5 34.6 35 The Street, Sheering (near M11) MW 550080 213750 ------31.0 30.2 36 31 Station Road Loughton Kerb 542242 195778 ------43.3 42.2 37 Hawke House, Loughton Kerb 542114 195906 ------47.0 45.8 41 Corner Aukingford Gardens/ A414 Kerb 544759 203955 ------33.8 33.0 42 High Road Tylers Green Kerb 550892 205058 ------50.5 49.3 43 A414 Harlow Nursery, Kerb 547852 206816 ------42.6 41.6 44 Bus stop, Hastingwood Roundabout Kerb 547370 206904 ------41.7 40.6 45 Waltham Abbey Link Road - Receptor 538570 199509 ------28.8 28.1 46 Waltham Abbey Link Road - Receptor 538570 199509 ------30.5 29.7 47 Loughton - Maple Gate Receptor 543086 197235 ------29.2 28.5 48 Loughton - Maple Gate Receptor 543086 197235 ------30.9 30.1 49 Sherrell House - Fencepiece Road Receptor 544276 192221 ------35.1 34.2 50 Sherrell House - Manor Road Receptor 544305 192260 ------33.0 32.2 51 Sherrell House - Manor Road Receptor 544305 192260 ------32.3 31.4 52 Sherrell House - Fencepiece Road Receptor 544276 192221 ------36.1 35.2

Page 9 of 17 LAQM Progress Report, 2005. 3.2 Highways Agency projects

The Council has been working in close co-operation with Mouchel Parkman (working on behalf of the Highways Agency) in conducting an assessment of Nitrogen Dioxide associated with the M25.

A total of 15 nitrogen dioxide diffusion tubes (50:50 TEA in acetone, supplied and analysed by Harwell Scientifics) have been deployed singularly at (or nearby) receptor locations adjacent to the Motorway, between the District boundary with the Borough of Broxbourne, and the M25/M11 roundabout (Junction 27). 5 additional tubes have also been located within the Borough of Broxbourne, including in triplicate at the Broxbourne air quality monitoring station. See table 3.2.1.

Table 3.2.1 - Highways Agency diffusion tube locations Site number Site Name Reason for selection Epping 1 A121 at Honey Lane Area of congestion at Epping Forest cSAC, close to M25 Junction 26, receives M25 traffic Epping 2 Skillethill Farm Unoccupied dwelling / yard Cottages adjacent to M25 slip road Epping 3 9 Gilsland Large residential area just outside predicted M25 NOx exceedance zone Epping 4 2 Lodge Lane Residential buildings within predicted M25 NOx exceedance zone Epping 5 Ivy Chimneys Road Residential dwelling just outside predicted M25 NOx exceedance zone Epping 6 Garnish Hall Adjacent to M25/M11 interchange Broxbourne 1 33-36 Teresa Borough of Broxbourne location Gardens Broxbourne 2 PNG Motors, Collocated at AQMS Waltham Cross Broxbourne 3 PNG Motors, Collocated at AQMS Waltham Cross Broxbourne 4 PNG Motors, Collocated at AQMS Waltham Cross Broxbourne 5 Arlington Crescent Broxbourne residential location, immediately adjacent to M25 Corporation 1 Inside Forest at Long Background location within Running Heath Epping Forest cSAC Corporation 2 Inside Forest at Background location within Jack’s Hill – Copley Epping Forest cSAC Plain Heath Corporation 3 Wake Arms Area of congestion at Epping roundabout Forest cSAC, receives M25 traffic Corporation 4 A121 at Sunshine Area of congestion at Epping Plain Forest cSAC, receives M25 traffic Corporation 5 A121 eastern arm by Epping Forest cSAC, receives Deer shelter M25 traffic Corporation 6 Roundabout on A104 Convergence of alternative route to/from M25 Corporation 7 Epping Forest Alternative route to M25 Epping Conservation Centre Forest cSAC Corporation 8 B1393, Epping Alternative route to M25 through Thicks Epping Forest cSAC Corporation 9 B1393, Long Background location within Running Heath Epping Forest cSAC

Page 10 of 17 LAQM Progress Report, 2005. None of the diffusion tube locations within the forest are situated near to an Air Quality Strategy specified receptor (i.e. no receptors where people are likely to be present over the averaging period).

The diffusion tubes have, at April 2005, been in location for over a year, and data for a complete 12 month period has been gathered for all sites except. A bias adjustment factor (supplied by Harwell Scientifics) of 0.74 has been applied to the raw data, and the results are detailed in table 3.2.2.

Table 3.2.2 - Highways Agency diffusion tube results Site number Site Name Annual Average NO2 (µg/m3) Epping 1 A121 at Honey Lane 38.5 Epping 2 Skillethill Farm 43.5 Cottages Epping 3 9 Gilsland 31.7 Epping 4 2 Lodge Lane 38.8 Epping 5 Ivy Chimneys Road 36.1 Epping 6 Garnish Hall 27.9 Broxbourne 1 33-36 Teresa 35.6 Gardens Broxbourne 2 PNG Motors, 44.3 Waltham Cross Broxbourne 3 PNG Motors, 42.4 Waltham Cross Broxbourne 4 PNG Motors, 43.7 Waltham Cross Broxbourne 5 Arlington Crescent 68.7 Corporation 1 Inside Forest at Long 35.2 Running Heath Corporation 2 Inside Forest at 18.7 Jack’s Hill – Copley Plain Heath Corporation 3 Wake Arms 43.8 roundabout Corporation 4 A121 at Sunshine 43.5 Plain Corporation 5 A121 eastern arm by 36.5 Deer shelter Corporation 6 Roundabout on A104 31.4 Corporation 7 Epping Forest 23.3 Conservation Centre Corporation 8 B1393, Epping 41.5 Thicks Corporation 9 B1393, Long 56.7 Running Heath

Again, the results of this survey currently reassure that nitrogen dioxide concentrations are currently below the 40 µg/m-3 Objective level at receptor locations within the district.

3.3 Imperial College project

Epping Forest is currently a candidate for Special Area of Conservation (SAC) designation for the presence of beech woodland and wet and dry heathlands under the EC Habitats Directive. However, in order to be designated as a SAC these habitats must be in favourable condition. Consequently the Corporation of , together with other Governmental environmental bodies commissioned a more extensive study to explore whether a link can be found between pollution concentrations and the health of vegetation throughout Epping Forest.

Page 11 of 17 LAQM Progress Report, 2005.

The overall aims of the project are to find out if plants in Epping Forest are affected by pollution from local roads and London; if the current management of these habitats is sufficient; and if improvements can be made to habitat management to restore the cSAC habitats to favourable condition status. The pollution monitoring network set up at Epping Forest has shown that many areas experience NOx levels that exceed the recommended critical level for plant health and that concentrations of ammonia (NH3) are appreciable.

As the study is still ongoing, the student has provided an interim report of the results observed to date:

A pollution monitoring network was set up throughout the forest in May 2004. Diffusion tubes were used because of their ease of deployment and relatively low cost. Nitrogen Oxide (NO) and NO2 have been monitored monthly, and in August NH3 samplers were also installed. These locations span a distance of five miles through the forest. Thirty eight sites were set up for NO2; at 9 of these, NO diffusion tubes were also installed, and at 13 of these sites NH3 samplers were set up.

Sites for pollution monitoring were chosen for several reasons: to determine the concentrations at a beech study site or near a heathland patch (to quantify exposures for year two’s field work); to measure the background concentration; to measure the levels at an interesting road feature, e.g. the M25 passing under the forest and the Wake Arms Roundabout where five main roads meet. In addition to single monitoring sites, 100m transects were set up at four locations for NO2 and two sites for NO to characterise the pattern of pollutant concentrations with increasing distance from the road.

The tubes have been analysed at commercial laboratories (Gradko International, Casella Stanger, Harwell Scientific).

Page 12 of 17 LAQM Progress Report, 2005. Monitoring methodology

At each location three tubes were co-located and exposed for one month in order to create an average monthly exposure (thus self bias adjusting). The diffusion tube locations are detailed in table 3.3.1.

Table 3.3.1 - Imperial College diffusion tube locations Site Code Location Name Attached To Distance from roadside (m) A1 Long Running East Silver birch 270 A2 Jack’s Hill Plain Dead oak 420 A3 Wake Arms Roundabout Grey street light 1.8 A4 Woodridden Hill ‘Bend in Road’ sign 1.1 A5 Goldings Hill Bus stop sign 2.7 A6 Robin Hood Roundabout Street light 2.2 A7 General’s Ride car park ‘Priority’ sign 1.0 A8 B1393 (nr Lodge Rd car ‘Horse Riding’ sign 1.5 park) A9 Epping M25 Bridge Wire fence 3 A10 Honey Lane Quarters (0 m) Brown lamppost 1.4 A11 Honey Lane Quarters (20 m) EF ‘Horse Riding 20.0 Restricted’ sign A12 Honey Lane Quarters (100 Oak (by stream) 100.0 m) A13 Epping Thicks Hornbeam 189 M25 200 B1393 161 Piercing Hill A14 Four Wantz Silver birch 440 B1393 420 Piercing HIll A15 Long Running heath Beech standard 242 B1393 224 B172 A16 Jack’s Hill Ditches ride Beech standard 70 A17 L. St. T’s Quarters (0 m) (by Corner of 1.3 woodcutters yard) woodcutters metal fence A18 L. St. T’s Quarters (20 m) Oak stump pollard 20.0 A19 L. St. T’s Quarters (100 m) Beech standard 100.0 A20 Dulsmead Hollow (0 m) Multiple sign post 0.95 A21 Dulsmead Hollow (20 m) Young beech 21.0 A22 Dulsmead Hollow (100 m) Wooden post 100.0 A23 Deershelter Plain Silver birch 118 A24 Wake Valley Oak tree 1.8 A25 Forest Way Beech tree 37 A26 (0 m) ‘Horse Riding’ sign 1.2 A27 Great Monk Wood (20 m) Young silver birch 24.5 A28 Great Monk Wood (100 m) Beech pollard 100.0 A29 Little Monk Wood Young beech 124 A30 Lost Pond Beech pollard 797 A104 425 Baldwins Hill A31 Sandpit Plain south Beech pollard 680 A104 512 Woodbury Hollow A32 Up and Down ride Beech 170 A104 184 Cross Roads A33 Fairmead north Beech 33 A104 A34 Grimston’s Oak Ride Oak 277 A104 A35 Warren Hill Roadside Big road sign 2.6 A36 Warren Hill summit Silver birch 245 A014 328 Warren Hill A37 Lord’s Bushes (Jericho Plain) Oak 205 A38 Big St. T’s Quarters Beech Branch 143

The locations of the diffusion tubes are also presented pictorially in figure 3.3.1. Page 13 of 17 LAQM Progress Report, 2005.

Figure 3.3.1 - Imperial College diffusion tube locations

Monitoring summary

Over the months May to December 2004, the highest mean NO2 concentration recorded was 84.0 µg/m-3 in November where the M25 runs under the forest. The background sites were around 18 µg/m-3. Generally at the roadside the concentration ranged from 21 to 65 µg/m-3. The results may be seen in Figure 3.3.2.

Concentrations along the 100m transects often to less than half. However, the concentrations at the end of these transects (100m) were around 5 µg/m-3 higher than the background measurement. Preliminary analysis does not show any difference between pollution levels in the north and south of the Forest. Reports on road works from Mouchel Parkman will be obtained in order to relate pollution data to uncharacteristic traffic flows.

-3 The critical level of NO2 for plant ecosystem health is 30 µg/m ; this concentration is exceeded at thirteen locations out of the 38 sampled through the Forest; all of these are roadside locations. The critical level for human health is currently set at 40 µg/m-3; this is exceeded at 7 sites, three being bus stops.

Concentrations of NO varied greatly, the highest concentration was 92.3 µg/m-3 at the M25 junction with the forest; roadside concentrations ranged from 0.23 to 92.3 µg/m-3. Background concentrations were around 7 µg/m-3. The two NO transects away from the road showed that the concentration fell almost to background levels at the 20m sample site. The overall NOx exposure at the roadside ranges from 49-104 µg/m-3; average background concentrations are -3 -3 23 µg/m . At 100m from the roadside NOx levels are up to 3 µg/m above background concentrations. Pollution monitoring will continue until April 2005 for NO2 and NO and until July for ammonia, providing a 12 month pattern for these pollutants.

Page 14 of 17 LAQM Progress Report, 2005.

Figure 3.3.2 - Imperial College diffusion tube results

22.4 µg m-3

17.6 µg m-3

21.2 µg m-3

20.2 µg m-3 18.7 µg m-3

-3 19.5 µg m-3 17.7 µg m

34.4 µg m-3

20.0 µg m-3

NO2 Concentration

-3 16.8 µg m > 35.0 µg m-3

30.0 -34.9 µg m-3 -3 -3 21.8 µg m 35.2 µg m -3 25.0 -29.9 µg m

20.0 -24.9 µg m-3

15.0 -19.9 µg m-3

Page 15 of 17 LAQM Progress Report, 2005.

Figure 3.3.3 – Variation in NO2 concentrations between May and December 2004

45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 NO2 concentration (ug m-3) 0 y t e ly s r r r r a n u u e e e e M u J g b b b b J u m to m m A te o e e p c v c e O o e S N D Month

In Figure 3.3.3, one trendline has been added to visualise the overall pattern of NO2 concentrations between May and December. It can be seen that there is a peak in concentrations in November and December.

Figure 3.3.4 – Attenuation of NO2 between 2.6m and 245m of the A104

45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5

Concentration of NO2 (ug m-3) (ug NO2 of Concentration 0

NO2 concentrations fall significantly away from the road (Figure 3.3.4). Sites A35 and A36 are 2.6m and 245m away from the roadside of the A104 just south of the Warren. Concentrations fall to nearly half. However, the comparison of NO2 concentrations between these two sites is complicated by the fact that A36 is up on a hill top above the roadside, but as other monitoring sites have shown very similar patterns it can be assumed that as distance increases from the road the concentrations of vehicle emissions declines.

Page 16 of 17 LAQM Progress Report, 2005.

No real pattern in NO2 concentration can be discerned with decreasing distance to London. These sites will however be influenced by many surrounding other sources of NO2 including the M25 to the north of the Forest and neighbouring housing estates.

The data for the rest of the monitoring period (January – April 2005) will be collected in due course and a thorough analysis shall be carried out on the whole data set to determine an accurate annual mean for each site and trends in NO2 concentrations away from roadsides and towards London.

4.0 Summary and Conclusions

4.1 Summary overview

The Progress Report shows that Epping Forest District is currently meeting the air quality objectives and is not at risk of exceeding the objectives by the relevant target dates.

The District Council is working in partnership with key stakeholders to ensure that the air quality in Epping Forest remains below the objective limits for 2005.

The expansion of the monitoring network will improve the data availability in the District. All new monitoring data will be reported in the 2005 Progress Report.

The District Council does not need to carry out any detailed assessment as a result of any findings of the Progress Report. The next air quality report to be prepared and submitted to defra will be the 2005 Progress Report.

4.2 Future actions / proposals

The following items present Epping Forest District Councils current air quality aims:

1. Continue the current diffusion tube survey, conduction a rationalisation of current tube locations to ensure that resources are appropriately deployed around the district to improve receptor base pollution concentrations

2. Maintain awareness of any proposed low emissions zone (LEZ) for London, and any impacts that this may have on traffic displacement, and nature of vehicles displaced into the district.

3. Maintain the current excellent partnerships with external organisations, with particular regard to Epping Forest and the .

Page 17 of 17 Appendix 1 - LAQM reporting timetable

Source: Progress Report Guidance LAQM.PRG (03), Defra (2003). Appendix 2 - Detailed Assessment addendum report

APPENDIX 2

Epping Forest District Council

Local Air Quality Management – Detailed Assessment Addendum Report

Ref: CS/AQ/AGGX0344/SA/2316 March 2005

DOCUMENT INFORMATION AND CONTROL SHEET

Client

Epping Forest District Council Project Manager Fay Rushby Civic Offices Tel: 01992 546000 High Street Fax: Epping CM16 4BZ

Environmental Consultant

Casella Stanger Project Manager Sharon Atkins Unit C1 Broadoak Business Park Tel: 0207 9026167 Ashburton Road West Fax: 0207 9026149 Trafford Park Manchester M17 1RW

Project Team Richard Maggs Principal Author Sharon Atkins Sharon Atkins

Document Status and Approval Schedule

Status Description Prepared by: Reviewed by: Sharon Atkins Richard Maggs Senior Consultant Business Director

Signed/Dated Signed/Dated Draft Issued to client by email Report

Final Issued to client by email Report and post

Ref: CS/AQ/AGGX0344/SA/2316

Epping Forest District Council Detailed Assessment Addendum Report March 2005

Disclaimer

This Report was completed by Casella Stanger on the basis of a defined programme of work and terms and conditions agreed with the Client. We confirm that in preparing this Report we have exercised all reasonable skill and care taking into account the project objectives, the agreed scope of works, prevailing site conditions and the degree of manpower and resources allocated to the project. Casella Stanger accept no responsibility to any parties whatsoever, following the issue of the Report, for any matters arising outside the agreed scope of the works. This Report is issued in confidence to the Client and Casella Stanger have no responsibility to any third parties to whom this Report may be circulated, in part or in full, and any such parties rely on the contents of the report solely at their own risk. Unless specifically assigned or transferred within the terms of the agreement, the consultant asserts and retains all Copyright, and other Intellectual Property Rights, in and over the Report and its contents. Any questions or matters arising from this Report should be addressed in the first instance to the Project Manager.

Ref: CS/AQ/AGGX0344/SA/2316 i

Epping Forest District Council Detailed Assessment Addendum Report March 2005

CONTENTS

Page

1. Introduction 2

2. Air Quality Monitoring Data 2

3. ADMS-Roads Modelled Results 10

4. Conclusions and Recommendations 12

5. Appendices 13

Ref: CS/AQ/AGGX0344/SA/2316 i

Epping Forest District Council Detailed Assessment Addendum Report March 2005

1. Introduction

Part IV of the Environment Act 1995 places a statutory duty on local authorities to review and assess the air quality within their area and take account of Government guidance when undertaking such work. Epping Forest District Council completed its Detailed Assessment in July 2004.

The Detailed Assessment considered the nitrogen dioxide (NO2) annual mean Objective, through dispersion modelling using ADMS-Roads. The results showed that there were

predicted marginal exceedences of the NO2 annual mean Objective identified at the nearest receptors within two of the areas that underwent Detailed Assessment: • A121 Link Road/A112 (Waltham Abbey) junction; and, • Hainault Road/Manor Road junction. As the modelled results were precautionary and verification based on 2003 monitored data (which was found to be notably higher than previous years monitoring results in the

District), it was recommended that NO2 monitoring be undertaken at receptor locations to provide confirmation of the findings of the Detailed Assessment, and to provide additional information in support of further assessment work. It was recommended that, if the results of further monitoring confirm the conclusions of the Detailed Assessment, Epping Forest District Council should consider declaring Air Quality Management Areas (AQMA) on the basis of the potential exceedences in the assessment areas, where exposure criteria were fulfilled.

It was also recommended that NO2 monitoring be undertaken at the nearest receptor location to the A121 Church Hill/ A1168 Rectory Lane junction to demonstrate compliance with the Objective. The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) accepted the Detailed Assessment conclusions.

The monitoring data available for the Detailed Assessment was largely at kerbside locations.

Therefore, closer consideration was required to the measured concentrations of NO2 at the facade of nearest relevant receptors. The results of the further NO2 monitoring (focusing on receptors) are presented in this report and are compared with the ADMS modelled results. This additional assessment has been undertaken in accordance with the methodologies provided in the Technical Guidance (LAQM. TG (03)).

2. Air Quality Monitoring Data

There is a continuous air quality monitoring station (grid reference x=536210, y=100020) just outside the District at a roadside site (M25) at Waltham Cross in the Borough of Broxbourne, which has been used to establish a bias adjustment factor for diffusion tube monitoring sites within the District. Triplicate diffusion tubes have been co-located at this

Ref: CS/AQ/AGGX0344/SA/2316 Page 2

Epping Forest District Council Detailed Assessment Addendum Report March 2005

site since November 2003. The annual mean NO2 in 2004 at the Waltham Cross site was 46.4 µg/m3 (51.8 µg/m3 in 2003) i.e. above the Objective level.

NO2 concentrations at Waltham Cross are measured using a chemiluminescent analyser. and Air Quality Monitoring Network managers, Kings College ERG calibrate the stations on a fortnightly basis and ratify the data. The QA/QC procedures for the site are equivalent to the UK AURN procedures. The manufacturer of the equipment services the station on a six monthly routine basis. Outside the continuous monitoring network, Epping Forest District Council operates 43

NO2 diffusion tubes sites, 4 of which are duplicate sites, which were installed in May/August 2004 within the areas that underwent detailed assessment. As stated previously the purpose of additional monitoring was to provide information at relevant receptors. The diffusion tubes are supplied and analysed by Gradko International Limited utilising the 50% TEA1 in acetone preparation method. Gradko International participates in the

Workplace Analysis Scheme for Proficiency (WASP) for NO2 diffusion tube analysis and the Annual Field Inter-Comparison Exercise. These provide strict performance criteria for

participating laboratories to meet, thereby ensuring NO2 concentrations reported are of a high calibre. The short-term new monitoring sites have been annualised using the methodology outlined in the Technical Guidance LAQM.TG (03).

The bias corrected data for the NO2 diffusion tube monitoring sites in 2003 and 2004 are shown in Table 1, with projections to 2005 and 2010. The locations of the monitoring sites are shown in Figure 1. To take account of the bias in the diffusion tubes analysed by Gradko International Limited, an assessment has been made of data from the continuous air quality monitoring site at Waltham Cross which has co-located triplicate diffusion tubes. The bias adjustment factor for 2004 has been calculated as 1.04 and has been applied to the 2004 monitoring data. The local bias adjustment factor of 1.02 from the Detailed Assessment has been applied to the 2003 diffusion tube monitoring results.

The 2004 results (Table 1) indicate that there are likely to be exceedences of the NO2 annual mean Objective at kerbside/roadside sites (No. 29, 30, 9, 12, 13, 14) within the two potential AQMA as identified in the Detailed Assessment - A121 Link Road/A112 (Waltham Abbey) junction and Hainault Road/Manor Road junction. However, receptor based monitoring indicate that measured concentrations fall well below the Objective away from the roadside (No. 44, 49, 50). At the A121 Link Road, the highest measured concentration is 50.2µg/m3, but the nearest receptors are around 20m from the kerb. Using the approach outlined on www.uwe.ac.uk/aqm/review FAQ, 0.75 * 50.2 = 38.8 µg/m3. (Appendix A) At the Hainault Road/Manor Road junction, the highest concentration is 49.3µg/m3, but the nearest receptors are 10 – 15m from the kerb. Using the approach outlined on www.uwe.ac.uk/aqm/review FAQ, 0.75 * 49.3 = 37.0 µg/m3.

1 TEA-Triethanolamine

Ref: CS/AQ/AGGX0344/SA/2316 Page 3

Epping Forest District Council Detailed Assessment Addendum Report March 2005

At the nearest receptors, it is therefore expected that the Objective would be met. It is recommended that continued monitoring be undertaken at these receptor locations to confirm compliance with the Objective.

The NO2 diffusion tubes within the Church Hill assessment area show measured concentrations marginally above (41.8µg/m3) the Objective in 2005 at one kerbside location (No. 15), based on projection of 2004 monitoring data. At the facade of the nearest receptors (5 - 10m from the kerb), it is expected that the Objective will be met (using the approach outlined on www.uwe.ac.uk/aqm/review FAQ, 0.9 * 41.8 = 37.6 µg/m3). Other roadside sites and receptor based monitoring sites confirm that the Objective is likely to be met in this assessment area (No. 16, 19, 48).

Ref: CS/AQ/AGGX0344/SA/2316 Page 4

Epping Forest District Council Detailed Assessment Addendum Report March 2005

Table 1 NO2 Diffusion Tube Monitoring Results 2003 - 2004; with projection to 2005 and 2010 for roadside/kerbside sites

Site ID Location X Y Corrected NO2 Corrected NO2 Projection of 2004 Projection of 2004 3 3 2003 in µg/m 2004 in µg/m NO2 to 2005* NO2 to 2010* 1 (co-location 8) High Street, Epping 546276 202436 43.3 43.3 42.1 34.7 2 (co-location 10) Tesco, High Street Epping 545811 201905 42.6 45.8 44.5 36.7 3 Lynceley Grange, Epping 546350202850 27.5 26.7 - - 4 Homefield Close, Epping 546100 202450 28.2 27.9 - - 6 75 Roundhills, Waltham Abbey 539079 199950 34.3 36.4 35.4 29.2 7 M25, Waltham Abbey* 538956 199930 43.6 40.0 38.9 32.1 9 Hainault Road, Chigwell 544250192250 44.3 47.3 46.0 37.9 11 High Street/Great Lawn Junction, Ongar 555200 203600 30.4 38.8 37.7 31.1 12 Hainault Road, Chigwell 2* 544234 192236 52.3 50.7 49.3 40.6 13 Hainault Road, Chigwell 3* 544252 192239 47.3 46.9 45.6 37.7 14 Hainault Road, Chigwell 4* 544257 192266 49.3 46.5 45.2 37.3 15 Church Hill Loughton 1 (LC22 opposite Farthingale Cottage) 543091 197350 48.2 43.0 41.8 34.5 16 Church Hill Loughton 2 543066 197258 46.2 43.2 42.0 34.7 17 Church Hill, Loughton 542500196700 41.6 43.5 42.3 34.9 18 The Uplands, Loughton 542550196650 31.9 28.2 - - 19 Church Hill Loughton 3 543052 197268 37.2 40.3 39.2 32.4 20 Loughton High Road 1* 542373 196440 44.5 44.2 42.9 35.4 21 (co-location 23) Ivy Chimneys Road, Epping (near M25) 545271 200936 35.2 41.9 40.8 33.6 22 Netherall Road / Glen Faber Road, Nazeing 539700 208650 21.3 20.6 - - 24 Woodbine Close Park (nearest receptor to M25) 541308 200037 44.8 39.5 38.5 31.7 25 Loughton High Road 2* 542389 196502 49.6 42.4 41.2 34.0 26 Chigwell Lane/Colson Road, Loughton 544103 169155 34.9 35.8 34.8 28.7 27 Loughton High Road 3* 542324 196340 65.1 52.3 50.9 42.0 28 68 Church Hill Loughton 542659 196846 - 45.8 44.5 36.7 29 Link Road (A121), Waltham Abbey 538325 199582 49.1 48.7 47.3 39.0 30 Link Road (A121), Waltham Abbey 537963 199600 47.8 53.2 51.8 42.7 31 Woodbine Close Park (near M25) 541320 200020 36.8 38.5 37.5 30.9 *Exceedences of the annual mean Objective are highlighted in bold.

Ref: CS/AQ/AGGX0344/SA/2316 Page 5

Epping Forest District Council Detailed Assessment Addendum Report March 2005

Table 1 (continued) NO2 Diffusion Tube Monitoring Results 2003 -2004; with projection to 2005 and 2010 for roadside/kerbside sites

Site ID Location X Y Corrected Corrected NO2 Projection of Projection of 3 NO2 2003 in 2004 in µg/m 2004 NO2 to 2004 NO2 to µg/m3 2005* 2010 32 Woodbine Close Park (near M25) 541330 199900 32.0 32.0 - - 33 Woodbine Close Park (near A121) 541450 199780 28.6 32.0 - - 34 Crown Close, Sheering (Near M11) 550190 214000 32.6 35.5 34.5 28.5 35 The Street, Sheering (near M11) 550080 213750 42.4 31.0 30.1 24.9 36 31 Station Road Loughton 542242 195778 - 44.2 43.0 35.5 37 Hawke House, Old Station Road Loughton 542114 195906 - 47.0 45.7 37.7 41 Corner Aukingford Gardens / A414 544759 203955 - 33.8 32.9 27.1 42 High Road Tylers Green 550892 205059 - 45.1 43.9 36.2 43 A414 Harlow Nursery, Canes Lane Hastingwood 547852 206816 - 42.6 41.5 34.2 44 Bus stop London Road Mc Donalds Hastingwood Roundabout 547370 206904 - 44.2 43.0 35.5 45 (co- Waltham Abbey Link Road - Burrows Chase 538571 199509 - 32.1 - - location 46) 47 (co- Loughton - Maple Gate 543087 197235 - 32.0 - - location 48) 49 (co- Sherrell House - Fencepiece Road 544277 192221 - 35.0 - - location 52) 50 (co- Sherrell House - Manor Road 544305 192260 - 32.1 - - location 51) co-location Waltham Cross Real-time analyser - 46.4 45.1 37.2 38/39/40 Oakwood Hill/Chigwell Lane, Loughton 544200 195850 42.7 - - *Exceedences of the annual mean Objective are highlighted in bold.

Ref: CS/AQ/AGGX0344/SA/2316 Page 6

Epping Forest District Council Detailed Assessment Addendum Report March 2005

Figure 1a Location of NO2 Diffusion Tube Monitoring Sites 2004 – Hainault Road/Manor Road, Chigwell

Reproduced with the Permission of Ordnance Survey  Crown Copyright LA100018534

Ref: CS/AQ/AGGX0344/SA/2316 Page 7

Epping Forest District Council Detailed Assessment Addendum Report March 2005

Figure 1b Location of NO2 Diffusion Tube Monitoring Sites 2004 – A121 Link Road/A112 Junction, Waltham Abbey

Reproduced with the Permission of Ordnance Survey  Crown Copyright LA100018534

Ref: CS/AQ/AGGX0344/SA/2316 Page 8

Epping Forest District Council Detailed Assessment Addendum Report March 2005

Figure 1c Location of NO2 Diffusion Tube Monitoring Sites 2004 – Church Hill, Loughton

Reproduced with the Permission of Ordnance Survey  Crown Copyright LA100018534

Ref: CS/AQ/AGGX0344/SA/2316 Page 9

Epping Forest District Council Detailed Assessment Addendum Report March 2005

3. ADMS-Roads Modelled Results

The most recent monitoring results for diffusion tubes within the assessment areas are compared with ADMS-Roads modelled results in Table 2. The ADMS-Roads model results for the three assessment areas: A121 Link Road/A112 junction (Waltham Abbey); Hainault Road/Manor Road junction (Chigwell); and Church Hill (Loughton); have been reverified using 2004 monitoring data. The results indicate that the Objective may not be met at all nearest receptor locations within the

three assessment areas. However, the modelled results overestimate the NO2 concentrations at receptor facades when compared with measured data. Table 2 shows the comparison of modelled and monitored data for 2005, based on 2004 model verification including nearest receptor locations.

During the verification process Casella Stanger aim to show that all final modelled NO2 concentrations are within 25% of the monitored NO2 concentrations. Modelled results may not compare as well at some locations for a number of reasons including: • Errors in traffic flow data estimates • Model setup (including street canyons, road widths, receptor locations) • Model limitations (treatment of roughness and meteorological data) • Uncertainty in monitoring data (notably diffusion tubes) The comparative results in Table 2 are within 25%, with the exception of (45) Burrows Chase, (47) Maple Gate, Loughton and (50) Sherell House, Manor Road, which are receptor based monitoring sites within the assessment areas. Verification in the assessment areas has been based largely on kerbside sites (rather than roadside locations, which are preferable), which has led to an overestimation in concentration at the nearest receptors within the model.

The monitoring data indicates that the drop off in NO2 concentrations from the kerbside is greater than predicted within the model, and, as such, at these receptor locations the Objective is expected to be met.

NOX/NO2 Verification

The ADMS-Roads dispersion model produces modelled results of the NOX emissions from vehicles and these are then converted to NO2 for comparison with the Air Quality Objective as outlined below. NETCEN modelled background concentrations from the Detailed Assessment have been added

to the modelled contributions of NOX and conversion to NO2 has been carried out using the NOX: NO2 ratio using the conversion method in LAQM.TG (03). Verification has been undertaken using 2004 data from kerbside/roadside diffusion tube sites in the assessment areas as shown in Table 2 (receptor based sites were not included in the

verification). The NOX roads contribution factor used in this Detailed Assessment to correct modelled results was x4.3 for the Hainault Road/Manor Road Assessment Area; x4.9 for the A121 Link Road/A112 Assessment Area; and x3.9 for the Church Hill Assessment Area.

Ref: CS/AQ/AGGX0344/SA/2316 Page 10

Epping Forest District Council Detailed Assessment Addendum Report March 2005

Table 2 Comparison of 2005 modelled and monitored results Location X Y Modelled 2004 % Difference Annual mean Monitored 3 NO2 in µg/m Annual 2005 mean NO2 in µg/m3 Projected to 2005 A121 Link Road/A112 junction, Waltham Abbey 29 Link Road, Waltham Abbey 538325 199582 49.1 47.4 3.6 30 Link Road, Waltham 537963 199600 50.2 51.8 -3.1 Abbey 45 Link Road, Waltham Abbey 538571 199509 45.4 31.5 44.2 (Burrows Chase Receptor) Hainault Road/Manor Road junction, Chigwell 9 Hainault Road, Chigwell 544238 192281 44.4 40.9 8.6 12 Hainault Road, Chigwell 544234 192236 45.3 49.3 -8.1 13 Hainault Road, Chigwell 544252 192239 45.2 45.6 -0.9 14 Hainault Road, Chigwell 544257 192266 46.4 45.2 2.7 49 Sherrell House - Fencepiece 544277 192221 40.7 34.2 18.8 Road (Receptor) 50 Sherrell House – Manor 544305 192260 40.9 31.4 30.1 Road (Receptor) Church Hill, Loughton 15 Church Hill, Loughton 543091 197350 40.0 41.8 -4.3 16 Church Hill, Loughton 543066 197258 48.5 42 15.5 17 Church Hill, Loughton 542500 196700 39.1 42.3 -7.6 18 The Uplands, Loughton 542550 196650 30.0 27.4 9.5 19 Church Hill, Loughton 543052 197268 48.8 39.2 24.5 20 Loughton High Road 1* 542373 196440 46.7 42.9 8.9 25 Loughton High Road 2* 542389 196502 44.6 41.2 8.3 27 Loughton High Road 3* 542324 196340 47.6 50.9 -6.5 28 68 Church Hill Loughton 542659 196846 42.7 44.5 -4.0 36 31 Station Road Loughton 542242 195778 36.5 43 -15.1 37 Hawke House, Old Station 542114 195906 36.8 45.7 -19.5 Road Loughton 47 Loughton - Maple Gate 543087 197235 42.9 31.4 36.8 (Receptor)

Ref: CS/AQ/AGGX0344/SA/2316 Page 11

Epping Forest District Council Detailed Assessment Addendum Report March 2005

4. Conclusions and Recommendations

The 2004 monitoring results confirm that it is not necessary to declare an AQMA within the three Assessment Areas: • A121 Link Road/A112 junction (Waltham Abbey); • Hainault Road/Manor Road junction (Chigwell); and, • Church Hill (Loughton).

The NO2 Annual Mean Objective is met at receptor based monitoring sites within the Assessment Areas and roadside/kerbside monitoring sites indicate that the Objective is likely to be met when projected to the facade of the nearest properties. The results of additional monitoring at nearest receptor locations in 2004 have therefore indicated that the Detailed Assessment 2003 verified results were overly precautionary in these locations.

It is recommended that monitoring be continued at the existing receptor locations to demonstrate compliance with the Objective. It is also recommended that consideration be made to an additional receptor location along the A121 Link Road and at (105) Manor Road to confirm

the projected drop-off in NO2 concentrations from the kerb from the kerbside sites with highest concentrations (No. 12&30).

Ref: CS/AQ/AGGX0344/SA/2316 Page 12

Epping Forest District Council Detailed Assessment Addendum Report March 2005

5. APPENDICES

APPENDIX 1 UWE – REVIEW AND ASSESSMENT HELPDESK FAQ:

Measurements of nitrogen dioxide have been made over the last few years at the kerbside using diffusion tubes. Is there any way the results can be used to assess concentrations at the facade of nearby residential properties, to allow comparison with the annual mean objective? Yes. Concentrations will be slightly lower at the building facade. The limited information that is available would suggest that the following adjustments can be applied to the kerbside results to estimate roadside values: Distance from kerb Multiply Kerbside Result by 2-5 m 0.95 5-10 m 0.90 10-20 m 0.75 These adjustments are still conservative in nature, but are appropriate for an Updating and Screening Assessment and may be useful in a Detailed Assessment.

Ref: CS/AQ/AGGX0344/SA/2316 Page 13