chapter 2 setting the Scene The Plan Area – Epping Forest District 2.1 Epping Forest District is in the south-west of Essex abutting through stations at North Weald and Blake Hall to the end both Greater London and Hertfordshire. The south–west of of the line at Ongar. Blake Hall station closed in 1981 with the District is served by the London Underground Central the line closing in 1994. In recent years the ‘Epping and Line (both the main line and the ‘Hainault via Newbury Ongar Railway’ has been established, a nationally recognised Park’ loop). Epping Station is the eastern terminus and there heritage rail service running on this former Central Line track are 7 other stations in service in the District 1. There is one from Epping to Ongar. There is currently no operational rail national railway station in the District – at Roydon on the connection between the heritage rail line and the Central Liverpool Street to Stansted and Cambridge line, although Line track at Epping, but the ‘Epping and Ongar Railway’ other railway stations (Broxbourne, Sawbridgeworth, Harlow runs some shuttle bus services locally. Town and Harlow Mill) are close to, and accessible from, the 2 District. The Central Line used to run further than Epping, These are Theydon Bois, Debden, Loughton and Buckhurst Hill, together with the stations on the branch line at Roding Valley, Chigwell and Grange Hill Figure 2.1 – Epping Forest District Source – Copyright Epping Forest District Council Epping Forest District Draft Local Plan 12 | Consultation October 2016 2.2 The M25 runs east-west through the District, with a local road 2.6 By 2033, projections suggest the proportion of people aged interchange at Waltham Abbey. The M11 runs north–south, over 65 will rise sharply compared to the other age bands, with a full interchange (Junction 7) at Hastingwood just south and that there will be a significant drop in the proportion of of Harlow, and a northward –off/ southward- on interchange people aged between 30 and 64. Projections also suggest (Junction 5) at Loughton. There is also a motorway only that the proportion of those between 15 and 29 will drop interchange with the M25 south–east of Epping (Junction 6). slightly, and that the proportion of people aged 0 to 14 will The A414 is a key east-west route and this crosses the District rise a little. Figure 2.4 shows the breakdown for Epping Forest from Harlow to Ongar on the way to Chelmsford and the District in 2011 and the projected breakdown in 2033. Essex coast. Figure 2.4 - Population breakdown at 2011 and projected 2.3 The District has 20 parish councils and 4 town councils breakdown for 2033, by age band and covers an area of approximately 130 square miles. The 2011 Census recorded a population of about 124,660 Source - ONS, 2014-based Subnational population projections people living in close to 54,400 dwellings. 2.4 Figure 2.2 shows that the District’s population increased Projected District population breakdown by age band to 2033 by almost 17,000 between the Censuses of 1961 and 2011. 30% Government estimates that the District’s population has 2014 2033 risen by just over 5,000 since 2011. 25% 20% Figure 2.2 - Population growth in the District 1961-2015 15% Source - ONS, Census data 1961-2011 and Mid-Year Estimates 10% 2012 to 2015 5% Percentage of total population of total Percentage 0% District population 1961-2015 0-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-44 45-64 65+ 140,000 Ag 20% 120,000 100,000 2.7 It is expected that the total number of households (a 80,000 household being a single person who lives alone, or a 60,000 group of people who live together) in 2011 was roughly 40,000 Total population Total 52,000. This is expected to rise to approximately 66,460 20,000 by 2033. The household projections suggest that by 2033, 0 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 there will be proportionately more households consisting *Hatched bars are ONS estimates* of one person, or a family with dependent children, and proportionately less households consisting of one couple. 2.5 In 2011, compared to the rest of England, the District had Figure 5 shows the breakdown. smaller proportions of people aged under 30 and a larger 2.8 The number of households differs from the number of proportion of people aged 45 to 64, and 65 and over. dwellings, because a small proportion of homes will be Figure 2.3 shows the breakdown. vacant or will be ‘second’ or holiday homes Figure 2.3 - Population breakdown at 2011, by age band Source - ONS, 2011 Census Age breadown as at 2011 Census 30.0% Eas 25.0% Esse ores 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% Percentage of total population of total Percentage 0.0% 0-15 16-19 20-24 25-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Ag Population Epping Forest District Draft Local Plan Consultation October 2016 | 13 Figure 2.5 - Projected population breakdown by age band (2033) 2.10 Life expectancy at age 65 in Epping Forest District in 2010-12 was higher than the national and Essex averages, Source - ONS, 2014-based Subnational population projections and similar to that of the East of England, as shown in Figure 2.7. Life expectancy at age 65 in the District has also risen overall since 2000. Epping Forest District – Proected household Figure 2.7 - Life expectancy at age 65 (by sex) 2000-2012 breadown by type to 2033 70,000 Source - ONS, Life expectancy at birth and at age 65, 65,000 England and Wales 60,000 ‘Other 55,000 Life epectancy at age 65 (by se) 2000-2012 50,000 45,000 22 40,000 dependen en 21 35,000 Households 30,000 20 25,000 ouple 20,000 19 15,000 10,000 son 18 5,000 0 17 2014 2033 16 2.9 Life expectancy at birth in Epping Forest District in 2010-12 ear xpect xpect ear was higher than the national and the Essex averages, and 15 similar to that of the East of England region, as shown in Figure 2.6. The District’s life expectancy at birth has risen 2000-20022001-20032002-20042003-20052005-20072004-20062006-20082007-20092008-20102009-20112010-2012 overall since 2000. Figure 2.6 - Life expectancy at birth (by sex) 2000-2012 Eas Eas Esse Esse Source - ONS, Life expectancy at birth and at age 65, ores ores England and Wales 2.11 Births and deaths within the District have remained Life epectancy at birth (by se) 2000-2012 relatively steady in the District since 2007,as shown 85 in Figure 2.8. There are more births than deaths, 84 contributing to a rise in population. 83 82 81 80 79 78 Tot xpect ears xpect Tot 77 76 75 2000-20022001-20032002-20042003-20052005-20072004-20062006-20082007-20092008-20102009-20112010-2012 Eas Eas Esse Esse ores ores Epping Forest District landscaping Epping Forest District Draft Local Plan 14 | Consultation October 2016 Figure 2.8 - Births and Deaths within the District 2007-2015 Figure 2.10 - Past and projected population growth, 2013 to 2033 Source - ONS, Annual tables on Live Births, and Deaths Source - ONS, Mid-Year Estimates 2013 to 2015, and 2014-based Subnational population projections irths and Deaths within the District Estimated (past) and projected (future) Number population growth 2015-2033 180,000 e Births160,000 140,000 Number120,000 ths irths and Deaths within the District 100,000 80,000 population Total 60,000 Number 40,000 irths and Deaths within the District e Births 20,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0 Number Number 2013201420152016201720182019 20202021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033 e ths Births *Hatched bars are estimates for past years. Solid bars are future projections* Number 2.12 The ths 2011 census found that the majority of the population 2.14 Epping Forest District’s population is affected by three main described their ethnic group as ‘White’ (90.5%). A further types of population change: 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20141.9%2015 described their ethnic group as ‘Black African/ Caribbean/ or Black British’, 4.7% as ‘Asian or Asian British’ • natural change (the net gain of births minus deaths, of and the remaining 2.7% as ‘mixed/ multiple ethnic groups’ or District residents); as ‘other ethnic’ groups. These broad numbers include 80.5% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 • internal migration (the net gain of people moving to the of people who describe their ethnic identity as English, District from elsewhere in the UK, or vice versa); and Welsh, Scottish or Northern Irish and 0.1% who describe it as Gypsy or Irish Traveller. This broad ethnic group breakdown • international migration (the net gain of people moving is very similar to that of Essex, the East of England Region, to the District from outside the UK, or vice versa). and England as a whole, as shown in Figure 2.9. 2.15 Of these, internal migration is projected to be the largest contributor to population growth, as shown in Figure 2.11, Figure 2.9 - Ethnic Group breakdown for the District in 2011 most likely as a result of the District’s location on the edge Source - ONS, Census data 2011 of London. 2.16 Natural change is projected to be a relatively steady, smaller Ethnic roup breadown as at 2011 Census gain for the District. International migration is more difficult 100% 90% to measure, but is projected to form only a small proportion 80% of the population change, being much less than internal 70% migration.