The employment structure in Epping Forest District John Papadachi, Prosperica Ltd John Papadachi, Prosperica Ltd Table of Contents Executive summary .................................................................................................... 4 1. Employment in Epping Forest District ..................................................................... 5 1.1 ’Mobile’ ........................................................................................................................... 5 1.2 Dominated by small businesses ...................................................................................... 5 1.3 The high skill-high reward relationship ............................................................................ 6 1.4 ’Traditional’ ..................................................................................................................... 6 1.5 Are these characteristics connected? .............................................................................. 6 2. The district’s employment by sector........................................................................ 7 2.1 Sectoral employment in detail ........................................................................... 9 2.2 Knowledge-based sectors ............................................................................... 11 3. Enterprise ............................................................................................................. 14 3.1 How Epping Forest District performs compared with other areas ................... 14 3.2 Epping Forest District performance in more detail .......................................... 18 3.3 Epping Forest District businesses in particular sectors ................................... 20 3.3.1 Property ........................................................................................................................... 20 3.3.2 Construction ..................................................................................................................... 20 3.3.3 Wholesale ........................................................................................................................ 20 3.3.4 Business administration and support services................................................................... 21 3.3.5 Retail ............................................................................................................................... 21 3.3.6 Professional, technical and scientific ................................................................................ 21 3.3.7 Agriculture, forestry & fishing ............................................................................................ 21 3.4 Business location ............................................................................................ 22 3.4.1 Effect of planning policy on business location ................................................................... 23 3.4.2 Working from home .......................................................................................................... 25 4. Commuting ........................................................................................................... 26 4.1 2001 Census data ........................................................................................... 26 4.2 Trends in commuting ....................................................................................... 26 5. How the district fared through the recession ......................................................... 30 5.1 Impact on employment .................................................................................... 30 5.2 Impact on unemployment ................................................................................ 33 Page 2 of 39 John Papadachi, Prosperica Ltd 5.2.1 Unemployment in West Essex and Epping Forest District as a whole ............................... 33 5.2.2 Unemployment among construction workers .................................................................... 34 5.2.3 Unemployment hotspots in Epping Forest District ............................................................. 36 List of tables and figures ....................................................................................... 39 Page 3 of 39 John Papadachi, Prosperica Ltd The employment structure in Epping Forest District Executive summary Epping Forest District has higher employment in the Construction and Distribution sectors compared with the average area in England. ‘Construction of buildings1’ and ‘Specialised construction activities2’ account for 4,500 jobs where a national average of 1,700 would normally be expected. There is, however, much less employment in (i) Financial services and (ii) Public administration, education and health compared with other areas. In terms of the number of new businesses created, and the number of businesses within the geographical area, Epping Forest District continued to perform well in 2009 and 2010 Although traditionally less entrepreneurial areas appear to be beginning to ‘catch-up’, the district still has a high number of businesses relative to England as a whole, and this seems to be stable. Remarkably, despite the recession, in March 2013 there were more registered businesses in the district than in March 2009. Detailed study of the businesses in the district confirmed that planning policy has been successful in concentrating larger retail outlets in the six town centres. But around half of employment is still outside the areas designated by planning policy for employment. A lot of employment appears to be based in domestic premises – especially in the Construction, Business, Professional and (possibly) the Property sectors. This emphasises the limits of traditional planning policy in terms of its direct effect on the location of employment. All the evidence points to the continuation of high levels of out-commuting for work. Detailed 2011 Census data on the subject will be released in 2014, but it is likely that the district still has far more out-commuters than in-commuters. At the same time, the proportion of residents who were dependent on employment outside the district decreased between 2001 and 2011, as it did between 1991 and 2001. Despite the 2008/9 recession, the district is estimated to have had higher overall employment in 2011 than in 2008. Within that increase, the official figures suggest that Construction employment declined markedly during the recession, but this was more than compensated for by increases in employment in Public administration, education and health3 As a result of the recession, unemployment among district residents rose substantially, as did unemployment in England as a whole. However, it was still below the national average for unemployment. There is little evidence of the very large-scale unemployment among construction workers that might have been expected. 1This is the name of a UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) Code. SIC codes are used by the Office for National Statistics to categorise different types of businesses. ‘Construction of buildings’ includes general construction of buildings of all kinds, incorporating work, repair, additions and alterations. 2 ‘Specialised construction activities’ includes construction activities which are usually specialised, such as pile- driving, foundation work, concrete work, brick laying, scaffolding and roof covering. 3 ‘Public administration, education and health’ includes local government, schools, healthcare, fires services, public order and judicial activities. Page 4 of 39 John Papadachi, Prosperica Ltd 1. Employment in Epping Forest District The district’s employment is notably different from the average local authority area in four respects. These are: 1. It is ‘mobile’ 2. It is dominated by small businesses 3. The high skill-high reward relationship 4. It is ’traditional’ 1.1 ’Mobile’ This is to do with (a) the level of out-commuting and (b) the nature of some of the district’s most important businesses. (a) The term ‘containment’ is used to describe the proportion of people who work within the district where they live. It is unsurprising that this district, with more London Underground stations than most outer London Boroughs, has a high level of out-commuting. This means that it has a low level of containment compared with most districts around London, let alone the rest of England. Although there is some in-commuting from workers living in adjoining areas, this is much less than the level of out-commuting. (b) Epping Forest District has an extraordinarily high level of employment in the construction industry. These workers will typically report to a depot in the district (at least in principle) but spend their time wherever the job to which they are assigned is located – taking advantage of the easy access to London and, using the M11 and M25, to the South East/ East. This means that much of the construction employment recorded as being within the district is actually taking place elsewhere. The good transport links also benefit managers or small business/ property owners who prefer to live in Epping Forest District but whose business dealings span London. This means they can travel to a variety of sites and that clients and workers can easily visit their Epping Forest District base. Essentially this is about activities which are mobile and/or subject to short-term contracts as a result of the trend towards outsourcing (publicity/ advertising/ marketing, construction, site management, cleaning etc.). Epping