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KSE-100 Index Performance from Its 6-Month Low (Dec’17) 16-May-2018

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KSE-100 Index Performance from Its 6-Month Low (Dec’17) 16-May-2018 REP-300 KSE-100 Index Performance from its 6-Month low (Dec’17) 16-May-2018 Analyst: AHL Research [email protected] +92 21 3246 2742 www.arifhabibltd.com www.jamapunji.pk Best Domestic Equity House Corporate Finance House of the Year Top 25 Listed Companies Best Equity House KSE-100 Index Performance Market generated a return of 12.1% • The KSE-100 index has managed to generate a return of 12.1% since its 6-month low witnessed in 19th Dec’17 to 14th May’18. • Pertinently, 5 sectors have managed to outperform the benchmark equity bourse during the period under review, while 5 sectors yielded lower returns than the stock market. • We have summarized the performance in upcoming slides. • We believe the market will perform better in the upcoming caretaker setup, which is expected to take charge from 1st June 2018, as has been witnessed during previous regimes. In the following slides, you can observe the market performance (average 14.1%) during previous 5 caretaker setups. • The KSE-100 index is currently trading at a PER of 9.8x (2018) compared to Asia Pac regional average of 14.5x while offering DY of ~5.5% versus ~2.4% offered by the region Our top picks are OGDC, PPL, UBL, ABL, AKBL, LUCK, DGKC, MLCF, ASTL, EFERT, SNGP, KAPCO, HUBC, MTL and INDU. 2 KSE-100 Index Performance Outperforming Sectors • Cements delivering one of the highest returns in the KSE-100 index of 22.4% as price hikes in North during the post winter season provided relief to the sector. • Oil and Gas Marketing Companies witnessed a hefty return of 21.3% owed to massive jump in volumes of petroleum products and margin expansion on deregulated products. Whereas under gas utilities, SSGC in particular garnered interest amid expectations of UFG control and clearance of previous losses in a manner similar to SNGP. • Fertilizer sector outperformed the local bourse posting a 20% return during the period as low inventory levels coupled with price hikes, anticipation of GIDC arrears settlement and reduction in GIDC going forward kept the investor’s interest in-check. • Commercial Banks provided a return of 14.5% outperforming the broader KSE-100 index (+ 12.1%) led by discount rate hike of 25bps during Jan’18 alongside further increase expected in the future as core inflation inches higher. • Engineering managed to underscore a robust return of 12.8% in the period under review as margin accretion during 2QFY18 of major players kept bottom-lines strong. 3 KSE-100 Index Performance Underperforming Sectors • E&Ps return during the period clocked-in at 9%, underperforming the KSE-100 index by 3.5ppts mainly due to foreign selling (USD 37mn). Albeit, the positive return is primarily attributed to higher oil prices (Arab light up 20%) along with PKR depreciation during the period. • Power sector yielded a positive return of 8% on account of PKR depreciation by 4.2% during the period under review. However, underperformance vis-à-vis the index was owed to rising levels of receivables which forced companies to skip dividend. • Automobile Assemblers sector provided a return of 6.2% compared to average return of 12.1% from market low to current levels given decline in earnings due to PKR depreciation and higher steel prices. • Textile composite performance remained depressed as value added sector felt the heat in the wake of companies finding it difficult to pass on the impact of rising input costs. While, spinning sector generated a return of 19.9% owed to low cost of cotton as government eliminated custom duty and regulatory duty on import of cotton. • Refineries performance remained subdued as sector posted a negative return of 8.8% during the period amid uncertainty with respect to FO offtake tagged with exchange losses amid PKR depreciation. 4 KSE-100 Index Performance Sector Performance Index / Mkt Cap (PKR mn) Change Sr No. Sector 14-May-18 19-Dec-17 42,498.86 37,919.42 12.1% 1 Refinery 16,641 18,110 -8.10% 2 Miscellaneous 28,880 31,363 -7.90% 3 Textile Weaving 1,110 1,195 -7.20% 4 Cable & Electrical Goods 9,889 10,626 -6.90% 5 Leather & Tanneries 3,883 4,111 -5.50% 6 Woollen 206 214 -3.60% 7 Tobacco 32,857 33,959 -3.20% 8 Automobile Parts & Accessories 21,885 22,434 -2.40% 9 Transport 16,689 16,622 0.40% 10 Glass & Ceramics 6,539 6,360 2.80% 11 Textile Composite 40,779 39,654 2.80% 12 Sugar & Allied Industries 3,228 3,112 3.70% 13 Synthetic & Rayon 1,056 1,002 5.40% 14 Technology & Communication 31,244 29,450 6.10% 15 Automobile Assembler 78,195 73,613 6.20% 16 Leasing Companies 2,978 2,784 7.00% 17 Power Generation & Distribution 124,504 115,646 7.70% Source: Bloomberg, AHL Research 5 KSE-100 Index Performance Sector Performance Index / Mkt Cap (PKR mn) Change Sr No. Sector 14-May-18 19-Dec-17 42,498.86 37,919.42 12.1% 18 Close - End Mutual Fund 8,012 7,440 7.70% 19 Modarabas 762 703 8.30% 20 Insurance 31,463 28,989 8.50% 21 Oil & Gas Exploration Companies 309,932 285,547 8.50% 22 Food & Personal Care Products 51,422 47,343 8.60% 23 Pharmaceuticals 46,109 42,406 8.70% 24 Paper & Board 15,612 14,346 8.80% 25 Chemical 37,896 34,801 8.90% 26 Engineering 40,427 35,841 12.80% 27 Commercial Banks 476,419 415,918 14.50% 28 Fertilizer 259,226 216,452 19.80% 29 Textile Spinning 1,855 1,547 19.90% 30 Real Estate Investment Trust 7,188 5,976 20.30% 31 Oil & Gas Marketing Companies 120,069 98,981 21.30% 32 Cement 172,229 140,752 22.40% 33 Inv. Banks / Inv. Cos. / Securities Cos. 8,694 6,945 25.20% 34 Vanaspati & Allied Industries 2,048 1,126 81.90% Source: Bloomberg, AHL Research 6 KSE-100 Index Performance Companies Performance Price Code Change Company 14-May-18 19-Dec-17 KSE100 Index 42,498.86 37,919.42 12.1% NRL National Refinery Ltd. 352.90 409.46 -13.8% HCAR Honda Atlas Cars (Pakistan) Ltd. 440.32 493.41 -10.8% PSEL Pakistan Services Ltd. 902.50 989.97 -8.8% ARPL Archroma Pakistan Ltd. 520.00 564.31 -7.9% CSAP Crescent Steel & Allied Products Ltd. 101.80 110.46 -7.8% NCPL Nishat Chunian Power Ltd. 26.85 29.02 -7.5% FML Feroze1888 Mills Ltd. 58.90 63.46 -7.2% ASTL Amreli Steels Ltd. 75.66 81.37 -7.0% PAEL Pak Elektron Ltd. 39.74 42.70 -6.9% BATA Bata Pakistan Ltd. 2,202.85 2,332.29 -5.5% SHFA Shifa International Hospitals Ltd. 251.75 264.56 -4.8% PAKT Pakistan Tobacco Company Ltd. 1,852.50 1,945.03 -4.8% COLG Colgate-Palmolive (Pakistan) Ltd. 2,700.00 2,825.31 -4.4% BNWM Bannu Woollen Mills Ltd. 48.21 50.03 -3.6% THALL Thal Ltd. 495.01 513.21 -3.5% NML Nishat Mills Ltd. 133.52 138.21 -3.4% KEL K-Electric Ltd. 5.98 6.04 -1.0% PTC Pakistan Telecommunication Company Ltd 11.79 11.80 -0.1% ATRL Attock Refinery Ltd. 219.44 219.48 0.0% PICT Pakistan International Container Terminal Ltd. 314.99 313.88 0.4% EFUG EFU General Insurance Ltd. 131.00 130.54 0.4% PIBTL Pakistan International Bulk Terminal Ltd. 14.11 14.05 0.4% PMPK Philip Morris (Pakistan) Ltd. 3,200.00 3,184.68 0.5% AGIL Agriauto Industries Ltd. 312.00 309.85 0.7% NPL Nishat Power Ltd. 29.35 29.06 1.0% Source: Bloomberg, AHL Research 7 KSE-100 Index Performance Companies Performance Price Code Change Company 14-May-18 19-Dec-17 KSE100 Index 42,498.86 37,919.42 12.1% HUMNL Hum Network Ltd. 8.72 8.55 2.0% PSMC Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd. 460.27 451.27 2.0% TRG TRG Pakistan Ltd. 28.16 27.60 2.0% SPWL Saif Power Ltd. 29.35 28.76 2.1% ABOT Abbott Laboratories (Pakistan) Ltd. 642.88 629.42 2.1% GHGL Ghani Glass Ltd. 62.79 61.07 2.8% FATIMA Fatima Fertilizer Company Ltd. 28.80 27.93 3.1% JDWS JDW Sugar Mills Ltd. 360.00 347.08 3.7% INDU Indus Motor Company Ltd. 1,672.16 1,609.30 3.9% MLCF Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd. 64.30 61.74 4.2% NESTLE Nestle Pakistan Ltd. 12,600.00 11,990.40 5.1% IBFL Ibrahim Fibres Ltd. 67.99 64.54 5.4% MUREB Murree Brewery Company Ltd. 714.49 677.12 5.5% OGDC Oil & Gas Development Company Ltd. 160.61 152.04 5.6% MCB MCB Bank Ltd. 198.66 187.70 5.8% SCBPL Standard Chartered Bank (Pak) Ltd 23.50 22.15 6.1% JLICL Jubilee Life Insurance Company Ltd. 725.00 679.63 6.7% OLPL Orix Leasing Pakistan Ltd. 42.79 40.00 7.0% SNGP Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Ltd. 95.75 89.49 7.0% UBL United Bank Ltd. 171.84 160.34 7.2% HBL Habib Bank Ltd. 170.02 158.36 7.4% PGF PICIC Growth Fund 30.51 28.33 7.7% HUBC The Hub Power Company Ltd. 96.94 90.00 7.7% NCL Nishat Chunian Ltd. 47.79 44.20 8.1% FHAM First Habib Modaraba 10.80 9.97 8.3% Source: Bloomberg, AHL Research 8 KSE-100 Index Performance Companies Performance Price Code Change Company 14-May-18 19-Dec-17 KSE100 Index 42,498.86 37,919.42 12.1% SEARL The Searle Company Ltd.
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